Why I’m optimistic

[RiverDog]

Looking at some of the mocks, I don't see a lot of WR's going in the first round, usually 2 or 3 and very few have any going in the top 10. Jameson Williams of Alabama and Garrett Wilson both come up a lot, usually between 11-20 overall, and 2-3 others are hit and miss for first round potential. Could this mean that there's a stronger than usual market for wide receivers, ie DK Metcalf?

[NorthHawk]

There are lots of WR's and two that are often considered possible high 1st round picks are from Ohio St.
Here are 4 to consider:
Garrett Wilson - Ohio St.
Jameson Williams - Alabama
Chris Olave - Ohio St.
Drake London - USC

Then there are some more expected to go in the late 1st round and early 2nd round and many of the WR's are speed burners running in the sub 4.4 range.
It's a real guess for when they will actually be taken. All it takes is one team who doesn't want to miss out on a player they think will help them.

[RiverDog]

There are lots of WR's and two that are often considered possible high 1st round picks are from Ohio St.
Here are 4 to consider:
Garrett Wilson - Ohio St.
Jameson Williams - Alabama
Chris Olave - Ohio St.
Drake London - USC

Then there are some more expected to go in the late 1st round and early 2nd round and many of the WR's are speed burners running in the sub 4.4 range.
It's a real guess for when they will actually be taken. All it takes is one team who doesn't want to miss out on a player they think will help them.

I haven't seen that many that consistently appear in the first round, Wilson and Williams for sure and London and Olave sometimes, but maybe I haven't been looking at enough mocks. But I for sure don't see a lot of them that have multiple WR's going in the top half of the first round.

There was an April Fools Day spoof circulating on social media that Metcalf had been traded to the Chiefs for 3 draft choices. I fell for it, had to do a search before I realized that I had been had.

[NorthHawk]

There's always the huge temptation to put QBs in the upper tier of mock drafts even if the talent isn't there.
This year is really stacked with DL and a couple of OL so we can see that some of the positions might be
suppressed slightly in peoples mocks. For sure, there aren't any physical freaks like DK this year, but there are
some excellent WR's to be had and one or two might go pretty early.

[RiverDog]

I've been watching NFL Network this morning, and several are convinced that we're going to see at least two and as many as four QB's go in the first round, Willis and Pickett being the two most mentioned. However, I'm willing to bet that there won't be any going in the top 10.

[NorthHawk]

I'm not sure about 4 QBs going in the 1st round, but maybe if they are late and a QB needy team has 2 1st round picks.
This QB class seems to be a boom or bust group with lower floors than we've seen for a while but maybe some high ceilings, too.
It makes you think that teams would go for the impact player early in the draft instead of making a big gamble on a QB but, every
year QBs go early, and many earlier than they should, so maybe it will happen.

[RiverDog]

I'm not sure about 4 QBs going in the 1st round, but maybe if they are late and a QB needy team has 2 1st round picks.
This QB class seems to be a boom or bust group with lower floors than we've seen for a while but maybe some high ceilings, too.
It makes you think that teams would go for the impact player early in the draft instead of making a big gamble on a QB but, every
year QBs go early, and many earlier than they should, so maybe it will happen.

The Eagles have 3 picks in the middle of the first round (#'s 15, 16, and 19), KC and GB have two picks in the 2nd half of the first round (Packers at #22 and #28, Chiefs at #29 and #30), but none of those teams are QB needy.

There's not many teams in the 2nd half of the first round that are what one would consider to be QB needy, perhaps the Saints at #18, Steelers at #20, or Lions at #32. The 3 most needy teams, Texans, Falcons, and Panthers, are all picking in the top 10.

[mykc14]

The Eagles have 3 picks in the middle of the first round (#'s 15, 16, and 19), KC and GB have two picks in the 2nd half of the first round (Packers at #22 and #28, Chiefs at #29 and #30), but none of those teams are QB needy.

There's not many teams in the 2nd half of the first round that are what one would consider to be QB needy, perhaps the Saints at #18, Steelers at #20, or Lions at #32. The 3 most needy teams, Texans, Falcons, and Panthers, are all picking in the top 10.

Looks like a recipe for a QB needy team to trade back into the 1st with the packers, chiefs, or both.

[RiverDog]

The Eagles have 3 picks in the middle of the first round (#'s 15, 16, and 19), KC and GB have two picks in the 2nd half of the first round (Packers at #22 and #28, Chiefs at #29 and #30), but none of those teams are QB needy.

There's not many teams in the 2nd half of the first round that are what one would consider to be QB needy, perhaps the Saints at #18, Steelers at #20, or Lions at #32. The 3 most needy teams, Texans, Falcons, and Panthers, are all picking in the top 10.

Looks like a recipe for a QB needy team to trade back into the 1st with the packers, chiefs, or both.

Or the Eagles. Three picks within 5 slots. Are they going to have 3 players all rated the same available to them to where the best use of the pick is to use it? Three first round picks is going to burn a hole in their wallet.

[NorthHawk]

I think the Eagles will trade out of one of those, maybe two back into the late 1st round and even 2nd round or for someone's next years 1st round pick + a mid round selection.
3 first round picks sounds great, but when the 5th year option time comes around it could hit hard if all of those players do well.

[RiverDog]

I think the Eagles will trade out of one of those, maybe two back into the late 1st round and even 2nd round or for someone's next years 1st round pick + a mid round selection.
3 first round picks sounds great, but when the 5th year option time comes around it could hit hard if all of those players do well.

That's my thinking, too, although I don't think anyone would mind if all three players 'hit.' It would be a good problem to have. It's pretty unlikely, though.

There are a record 8 teams without a first round pick, including the Bears, Browns, Broncos, Colts, Dolphins, Raiders, Rams, and Niners. One of them is almost certainly going to want to move up and take a player they've fallen in love with if they see him available.

[NorthHawk]

From what I've been reading, there seems to be 4 or 5 picks that are sure to go in the top 7. What order is unknown, but lying season is upon us.
The Lions are an interesting team. They can use a good pass rusher and they are said to be heavily invested in checking our Kayvon Thibodeaux,
but there are reports they want the DB Sauce Gardner which would give them a really good secondary for a few years. It will be an interesting
choice for them at #2 and are they willing to wait until #32 to get a good but probably not an early impact pass rusher or will they just get
one early and move on to the next pick?
Regardless of what Detroit does, there is always a surprise pick in the first round and it will affect who is available for us at #9. It might turn
out that they have a player in mind but don't expect him to be there and expect to trade back, but if that player falls to them, their plan will
have to shift. All teams play out the different draft scenarios, so it shouldn't strike panic amongst them but there will probably be some
tough choices come draft day.

[curmudgeon]

5271FA4E-229D-48FE-B23F-04B49A2D7BF3.jpeg (11.38 KiB) Viewed 4000 times

[RiverDog]

From what I've been reading, there seems to be 4 or 5 picks that are sure to go in the top 7. What order is unknown, but lying season is upon us.

Lying season lasts for 365 days each year. Pete and Russell proved that.

The Lions are an interesting team. They can use a good pass rusher and they are said to be heavily invested in checking our Kayvon Thibodeaux, but there are reports they want the DB Sauce Gardner which would give them a really good secondary for a few years. It will be an interesting choice for them at #2 and are they willing to wait until #32 to get a good but probably not an early impact pass rusher or will they just get one early and move on to the next pick?

Regardless of what Detroit does, there is always a surprise pick in the first round and it will affect who is available for us at #9. It might turn
out that they have a player in mind but don't expect him to be there and expect to trade back, but if that player falls to them, their plan will
have to shift. All teams play out the different draft scenarios, so it shouldn't strike panic amongst them but there will probably be some
tough choices come draft day.

Yeah, the top 10-15 picks are usually pretty reliable, but like you say, the teams they fall to can vary. If a player in the top 10 starts to drop, it's usually not for more than a couple of slots. Get below that, and they can fall clear out of the first round.

[tarlhawk]

Optimism for our team going forward always exists in the NFL "Lottery"...er draft! We have excellent opportunities to recover from the previous "vampire" drafts that have been a constant drain on our talent base. Our expectations of team "improvement" have been tempered by having the loss of dynamic offensive (Wilson) and defensive (Wagner) leadership. "Next man up" is popular for a team with talent depth but we are trying to get back to that...and strong leadership is seldom as easily replaced.

My optimism stems from our front office stability and the infusion of new defensive stewardship. All the good drafting selections can be easily wasted without solid coaching to bring out their best. I almost derive as much hope from seeing a key coaching hire/promotion as I do the acquisition of a stellar player.

Draft needs vary with the strengths of an individual draft...patience and good scouting are the boon of any good NFL GM. This draft seems to align with our teams individual needs...the trenches define a team as "playoff ready" . With solid personnel on both lines your offensive/defensive coordinators can begin to dictate rather than react to the "flow" of a games outcome.

I think a selection of any of the "big three" offensive tackles...Evan Neal/Ikem Ekwonu/Charles Cross is a goal for "most expected". (If somehow a superior edge "falls" to us then Kayvon Thibodeaux or Travon Walker could steer us to waiting for the tackle position later in the draft) Based on Free agents signed/re-signing of our own free agents...Offensive Tackle seems likely as we try to "keep" Duane Brown on the sidelines. Re-signing Brown/Shell seems obvious as being "draft dependent. If we land one of these tackles then Nik Bonitto could still offer "impact" value from the defensive line in the second round.

Depending on the draft influence of our new defensive coaches/advisors a defensive secondary stud like Ahmad "sauce" Gardner/Kyle Hamilton/Derek Stingley Jr. could demonstrate a change in defensive back philosophy/priority.

Somewhere in our mid-draft range a running back needs addressed as an insurance policy on the return/availability of Chris Carson. If another dynamic WR falls into the later draft rounds then we could "groom" Tyler Locketts eventual replacement...but not an urgency. Getting top draft targets in the financial impact areas (Edge/OffensiveTackle/Wide Receiver/Cornerback) can ease the restraints of salary cap in Superbowl aspirations.

[obiken]

We have excellent opportunities to recover from the previous "vampire" drafts that have been a constant drain on our talent base.

No we don't, not as long as Pete is drafting, once you accept the fact your dead there is no hope, otherwise your a Kool-Aid drinker like Hawktalk.

[tarlhawk]

I get the vibe that John Schneider is driving the draft not Pete whether or not that has been the case before. John is making the tough decisions as the "bad cop" allowing Pete to be the "good cop role". This draft is full of "high in the round" draft picks and new draft influences from the recent influx of Defensive coaching and "starting to take hold" Waldron. This isn't a single year advantage ...but a two year advantage for newly acquired draft capital and cap space. Many one year contracts because this years cap space incurred a 26 million dead cap space due to trading RW which was only partly off set by Wagoner's release.

Advantages are lower expectations while facing our own "peaking" NFC West and AFC West...improvements are being made in spite of all the nay sayers.

[RiverDog]

I get the vibe that John Schneider is driving the draft not Pete whether or not that has been the case before. John is making the tough decisions as the "bad cop" allowing Pete to be the "good cop role". This draft is full of "high in the round" draft picks and new draft influences from the recent influx of Defensive coaching and "starting to take hold" Waldron. This isn't a single year advantage ...but a two year advantage for newly acquired draft capital and cap space. Many one year contracts because this years cap space incurred a 26 million dead cap space due to trading RW which was only partly off set by Wagoner's release.

Advantages are lower expectations while facing our own "peaking" NFC West and AFC West...improvements are being made in spite of all the nay sayers.

Obviously, JS and Pete collaborate on the draft, but there is no doubt in my mind that Pete's the boss and must give the thumbs up to any draft choice or trade.

We'll see how well Pete and John manage their "newly acquired draft capital and cap space", but their past does not inspire a lot of confidence that they can suddenly do a better job of it now. They've made some really bad trades with a lot of their draft capital in recent years and they've already spent a big chunk of that cap space on the safety position. If they compound that decision by re-signing Metcalf to a $25M+ contract, they'll be squandering this opportunity as well.

[tarlhawk]

Re-signing Metcalf is a commitment to having a QB under a rookie contract which is why as a minimum I don't see any real movement to extending him until post draft...if then. Baker Mayfield ...even Jared Goff or Jimmy G. would make extending Metcalf a financial burden similar to the reason behind releasing Bobby Wagner. The extension of Metcalf coupled with our two safety contracts necessitate a QB under a rookie contract just to ease any financial strain. Baker would be a 1 year rental IF Cleveland offered a trade where most of his 2022 salary is paid by them...I see a mid-round drafted QB (2nd rd tops unless we package a deal to move up for a late 1rst rd pick) but 2023 draft QB is fall back plan. John Schneider can wait till next year to extend DK with the rare use of a Franchise tag (not to trade him but to get a deal done in a better financial setting *2023 salary cap money*

[NorthHawk]

We could re-sign DK and sign Mayfield if we wanted. Many teams have high priced players on their roster and they do well.
It's just that JS doesn't want to do that so we get stuck with contracts that cost a lot in Cap space.

I like DK, I think he's a really good player with a lot of upside and doesn't seem like a jerk like some players do. However if he stays here
his talents will be wasted in our Offense, not just because of a young QB, but because Pete Ball limits what the Offense does creatively.

[RiverDog]

Re-signing Metcalf is a commitment to having a QB under a rookie contract which is why as a minimum I don't see any real movement to extending him until post draft...if then. Baker Mayfield ...even Jared Goff or Jimmy G. would make extending Metcalf a financial burden similar to the reason behind releasing Bobby Wagner. The extension of Metcalf coupled with our two safety contracts necessitate a QB under a rookie contract just to ease any financial strain. Baker would be a 1 year rental IF Cleveland offered a trade where most of his 2022 salary is paid by them...I see a mid-round drafted QB (2nd rd tops unless we package a deal to move up for a late 1rst rd pick) but 2023 draft QB is fall back plan. John Schneider can wait till next year to extend DK with the rare use of a Franchise tag (not to trade him but to get a deal done in a better financial setting *2023 salary cap money*

I don't want to dilute this thread with subjects we have going on in a couple others, but I don't think that there's any possibility that we'll extend Metcalf prior to the draft if we ever do. There's no reason to. Even if they have zero intentions of trading him, there's no harm in letting other teams make offers for him.

With regard to Mayfield's status, there has been no indication that Cleveland is willing to pick up a substantial part of Mayfield's $18M+ he's due for 2022, which is obviously a sticking point that has scared off a number of teams. As a matter of fact, the Browns may opt to hold onto him as there's a very real possibility that Watson could be suspended for a major chunk of the season. That would make for some really interesting drama as the Browns and Mayfield have had a rather nasty divorce.

[RiverDog]

We could re-sign DK and sign Mayfield if we wanted. Many teams have high priced players on their roster and they do well.
It's just that JS doesn't want to do that so we get stuck with contracts that cost a lot in Cap space.

I like DK, I think he's a really good player with a lot of upside and doesn't seem like a jerk like some players do. However if he stays here
his talents will be wasted in our Offense, not just because of a young QB, but because Pete Ball limits what the Offense does creatively.

I didn't much care for how Metcalf responded to Shannon Sharpe's very legitimate criticism of his failure to step out of bounds in the Steelers game. I have this thing about respecting your elders, especially a HOF'er like Sharpe. But that's neither here nor there.

Metcalf can and has been utilized in our offense. Perhaps not to the maximum as he and others would like, but more than enough to justify his starting position. It's his price tag that has me concerned.

[NorthHawk]

Sure. His reaction wasn’t the best, but it’s minor and he moved on.

I just think it would be best for both sides if he got traded to a team that would use his talents
better than we have or probably will.

[RiverDog]

Sure. His reaction wasn’t the best, but it’s minor and he moved on.

I agree, it was minor, and I'm certainly not going to dwell on it. Nevertheless, it's an indication that he might not have reached the level of maturity that you would expect out of a 24 year old 4 year veteran.

I just think it would be best for both sides if he got traded to a team that would use his talents better than we have or probably will.

Agreed.

[Hawktawk]

I like DK, I think he's a really good player with a lot of upside and doesn't seem like a jerk like some players do. However if he stays here
his talents will be wasted in our Offense, not just because of a young QB, but because Pete Ball limits what the Offense does creatively.

I didn't much care for how Metcalf responded to Shannon Sharpe's very legitimate criticism of his failure to step out of bounds in the Steelers game. I have this thing about respecting your elders, especially a HOF'er like Sharpe. But that's neither here nor there.

Metcalf can and has been utilized in our offense. Perhaps not to the maximum as he and others would like, but more than enough to justify his starting position. It's his price tag that has me concerned.[/quote]

[Hawktawk]

[quote="RiverDog" .

I didn't much care for how Metcalf responded to Shannon Sharpe's very legitimate criticism of his failure to step out of bounds in the Steelers game. I have this thing about respecting your elders, especially a HOF'er like Sharpe. But that's neither here nor there.

Metcalf can and has been utilized in our offense. Perhaps not to the maximum as he and others would like, but more than enough to justify his starting position. It's his price tag that has me concerned.[/quote]
I’ve watched the play vs Pittsburgh many times . Maybe not the best game management decision by Metcalf but also brilliant. He never went inbounds enough to lose the ability to step out . He had already beaten one defender and the punch of the ball was brilliant by a defender who knew he could not tackle Dk in that situation and didn’t even try . DK is the shizzle . Keep him.

[RiverDog]

I didn't much care for how Metcalf responded to Shannon Sharpe's very legitimate criticism of his failure to step out of bounds in the Steelers game. I have this thing about respecting your elders, especially a HOF'er like Sharpe. But that's neither here nor there.

Metcalf can and has been utilized in our offense. Perhaps not to the maximum as he and others would like, but more than enough to justify his starting position. It's his price tag that has me concerned.

I’ve watched the play vs Pittsburgh many times . Maybe not the best game management decision by Metcalf but also brilliant. He never went inbounds enough to lose the ability to step out . He had already beaten one defender and the punch of the ball was brilliant by a defender who knew he could not tackle Dk in that situation and didn’t even try . DK is the shizzle . Keep him.

Sorry, man. Nearly every analyst, including HOF'er's like Shannon Sharpe, say that the smart play was to step out of bounds. The prospect of winning the game by gaining more yardage to make a significant difference in the FG attempt or score a TD was much, much less than the odds of stepping out of bounds and kicking the FG from the 40ish range. It was a no brainer, palm to the forehead. You're revising history again.

Had that been Russell taking a similar risk/reward gamble like that, you would have been all over him.

[Hawktawk]

I saw what I saw .. ok dumb play but if not for the brilliant accurate punch of the hall he’d likely have housed it . The guy didn’t even try to tackle him . It’s what it is .at least we got to overtime . Result was the same . Another sack by watt . I don’t blame the kid for trying to just win it there. As for Russ I’ve cheered his success off schedule and razzed his losers off schedule . At this juncture of his career Russ is fairly receiving serious scrutiny for his play and his attitude . It had nothing to do with the play of DK who sells out his body every play .

[RiverDog]

I saw what I saw .. ok dumb play but if not for the brilliant accurate punch of the hall he’d likely have housed it.

No, he wouldn't have housed it. There were two deep safeties and all they would have had to do was give him a little shove and pushed him out of bounds, unless he was dumb enough to turn it back inside and risk getting tackled in bounds then the game was over. It was a stupid play. Once again, you're on an island as no one else, either in this forum or any football analyst, supports your POV.

[Hawktawk]

I saw what I saw .. ok dumb play but if not for the brilliant accurate punch of the hall he’d likely have housed it.

No, he wouldn't have housed it. There were two deep safeties and all they would have had to do was give him a little shove and pushed him out of bounds, unless he was dumb enough to turn it back inside and risk getting tackled in bounds then the game was over. It was a stupid play. Once again, you're on an island as no one else, either in this forum or any football analyst, supports your POV.[/quote]
Baloney . Minority opinions aren’t always wrong and this is purely subjective .I watched the play multiple times. It’s him and 2 guys he’s going past one and the second punched out the ball . If he doesn’t punch the ball out DK wins it imo . But whatever . It gives you something to argue about .

[Old but Slow]

You mean DK made a poor judgement? Hell, cut him.

[Hawktawk]

You mean DK made a poor judgement? Hell, cut him.

Yeah right ? He did it for the right reason . In the end it didn’t matter .