Kaep under investigation for bad things

[HumanCockroach]

Hell I and those with "like thinking" could be wrong, IMO the fact that there "was no victims" really doesn't sway me much. Jones "incited" an incidence where someone was paralysed, he didn't fire the weapon or paralyse the guy. Smith FIRED a gun into a crowd to disperse them from his own party, then proceeded to drive his vehicle so loaded that he wrapped it around a tree at a time of day where people are getting kids off to day care, and people are headed to work. You can say that his suspension or punishment will be mitigated by a lack of innocent victims, IMO it will be stiffer because the NFL is worried that left to his own devices, there is no way he keeps "dodging that bullet .

Like I said, I am not convinced he doesn't spend the season in Prison, much less the leagues punishment. We'll see, a LOT will be cleared up by the middle of next month ( 5th year option decision, plus pending trial on 3 felony charges at the end of April, and at that point there should be a clarification on newest possible felony, and I believe the DUI with drug possesion is also due to be heard).....

[obiken]

I agree HC, until there is a there that is there, there is no use speculating. Smith on the other hand is a psycho, and is probably done for a while. Sad, even though we all the hate Niners, you still hate to see a kid tear up his lottery ticket.

[RiverDog]

Hell I and those with "like thinking" could be wrong, IMO the fact that there "was no victims" really doesn't sway me much. Jones "incited" an incidence where someone was paralysed, he didn't fire the weapon or paralyse the guy. Smith FIRED a gun into a crowd to disperse them from his own party, then proceeded to drive his vehicle so loaded that he wrapped it around a tree at a time of day where people are getting kids off to day care, and people are headed to work. You can say that his suspension or punishment will be mitigated by a lack of innocent victims, IMO it will be stiffer because the NFL is worried that left to his own devices, there is no way he keeps "dodging that bullet .

Like I said, I am not convinced he doesn't spend the season in Prison, much less the leagues punishment. We'll see, a LOT will be cleared up by the middle of next month ( 5th year option decision, plus pending trial on 3 felony charges at the end of April, and at that point there should be a clarification on newest possible felony, and I believe the DUI with drug possesion is also due to be heard).....

He's not going to spend that much time in prison. They just don't do that with first time felons unless their crime is of the Aaron Hernandez type. For one thing, the jails are already over populated.

[Zorn76]

Count me as one who isn't so sure "Carroll and the Cheaterhawks" would snap up Smith in a heart beat. At this point the assertion that Smith would last 1/2 a second on the market seems to be pure Niner speculation. For one Aldon has a TON of issues hanging over his head, and personally I simply don't see ANY team "gambling" that he isn't going to be in prison for this coming season, nor do I think any GM see's as someone that won't be punished and punished severely by the league in the coming couple seasons, add in the fact that he can't seem to straighten himself out, and there is a recipe for wasted time, money and effort in Aldon's case.

Don't misunderstand me, the guy has a ton of talent, but at some point that becomes worthless, and Aldon is quickly approaching that point.

Also, I'm not convinced Smith FITS with the Seahawks scheme, where does he play? LB? Leo? Seattle plays a hybrid 4/3 and I'm not sure that Smith is the hybrid player the Hawks covet. Add in that without J. Smith to grab a couple lineman Smiths ability vanishes.

SF is keeping Smith at this point because they really have no other viable option. He is due 3 million, they can't trade the man, because NO team is going to give up picks/players or the money for a player that more than likely won't play this season, and will be a FA after the year, if they cut him, they are STILL on the line for that 3 million, and have to PAY someone else ( though they will have to do the same anyway). Really a no win situation....

Do you really think he's not going to play this season? How many season long suspensions have been issued recently and for what reasons? I remember Pac Man Jones getting suspended for a year, but his transgressions were far worse than Smith's.

The 2nd video clip in this link gives Adam Shefter's take on Smith's situation, and he believes there's a good chance that Aldon doesn't play at all in 2014, when factoring in all the legal stuff on his plate. And it makes sense, really. Weapons charges, DUI, and now LAX.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10802 ... ear-option

[HumanCockroach]

I obviously don't agree RD. People who have multiple incidents that endanger the lives of other people tend to get quite a bit of time in prison. Hell Plaxico Burress got like a year for shooting himself in the leg, which isn't CLOSE to the type of stuff we are discussing in regards to Smith. This isn't some sort of he had an ounce of weed on him at the wrong time and never had problems with the law kind of situation. This is a continued series of DANGEROUS issues with the law, and most judges take that into account when passing down punishment....

Not saying ultimately that you will be wrong, just that we aren't going to see a 10 days in jail w/ probation kind of verdict if ( or I should say when) he is sentenced. I think you are under estimating the seriousness of the offenses we are discussing, and the regularity of them.

[RiverDog]

I saw the ESPN article Zorny posted, and I do remember the Plaxico incident, although that was NYC, which has the toughest gun laws in the country. Perhaps you guys are right about the jail time, but we'll see. I still think his behavior is comparable more to someone like Chris Henry than it is Pac Man.

[Zorn76]

It's a different kind of flavor of problems for Aldon, but it still spells trouble. Funny thing is, had he not made the remark at LAX, he may have been cut some slack on the discipline he's facing. Now, all bets are off.

I don't see significant prison time, but who knows. But the comment he made in LA is just plain bad on several levels, not the least of which is his ignorance or insensitivity for a taboo subject. P.R. has as much to do with the NFL as anything else, and the good commish is going to make an example out of him, IMO.

Roger is going to want to set a precedent with this one, I think, and Aldon Smith presents the perfect opportunity to do so.

[RiverDog]

It's a different kind of flavor of problems for Aldon, but it still spells trouble. Funny thing is, had he not made the remark at LAX, he may have been cut some slack on the discipline he's facing. Now, all bets are off.

I don't see significant prison time, but who knows. But the comment he made in LA is just plain bad on several levels, not the least of which is his ignorance or insensitivity for a taboo subject. P.R. has as much to do with the NFL as anything else, and the good commish is going to make an example out of him, IMO.

Roger is going to want to set a precedent with this one, I think, and Aldon Smith presents the perfect opportunity to do so.

Agreed. IMO the bit about him possibly having had been drinking could be a key factor in Goodell's decision. It would be an indication that his rehab didn't work.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Goodell suspends Smith for 8 games. I'm going to steer clear of the jail time. I would have thought that it wouldn't have been that severe, but you guys got me second guessing myself.

[HumanCockroach]

I saw the ESPN article Zorny posted, and I do remember the Plaxico incident, although that was NYC, which has the toughest gun laws in the country. Perhaps you guys are right about the jail time, but we'll see. I still think his behavior is comparable more to someone like Chris Henry than it is Pac Man.

Not sure how strict the gun laws in California are, do know that Lynch got three games for having one in a backpack in his trunk in his car ( a misdemeanor not a felony, not to mention 3 of them) from the league ( preceded by clipping a pedestrian with a mirror and leaving).

Lynch received 80 hrs of community service and 3 yrs probation for his misdemeanor gun charge in California, something tells me, something a bit stiffer is in store for Aldon.

That said, I am not a lawyer, and haven't the foggiest, for all I know Smith will receive less on both ends. ( though I doubt it).

[RiverDog]

In NYC, they have a "no carry" law where you can't even carry a hand gun and ammo together within the city limits. Most permits issued there are for premises only, meaning in your house. The general consensus is that New York State, especially since the Connecticut school massacre, has the toughest gun laws in the land and NYC adds even more restrictions and penalties.

I wish I could link the article, have to wait till I get home from vacation, but I'm currently reading about a 28 year old former Marine with no criminal history that was facing a mandatory 3.5 years in prison after he asked where he could check in his gun before entering the Empire State Building. I can remember the discussion about Plaxico that we had at the old PI, how if he would have done what he did in some place like Montana, he would have had a $150 fine and no jail time or something like that. The variances in these gun laws is absurd.

Anyhow, I don't claim to understand the gun laws. I don't own a hand gun, just a couple of shot guns and a .22 rifle, and I don't live in a big city. But I'd be surprised if Smith got significant jail time when he didn't use his weapon in the commission of a crime. I'm just guessing, but I would think that fact would sway a judge or jury. I know it would me.

Poor Aldon. He's fighting a 3 headed monster. He has these gun charges, the DUI, and the Commish. Now I see where the Niners probably won't pick up his option. Obi said it right, the guy tore up his lottery ticket. These kids are so spoiled that they are too naïve to understand when they are blessed with the opportunity to earn millions and be set for life while poor slobs like us have to work ourselves to a pulp to earn in a lifetime a fraction of what those guys make in a year.

[Futureite]

I will say 8 games suspension and minimal jail time, if any. I am going to guess the 49ers pay his option because if they don't and he has an impact in 2014 in the games he does play, they'll be forced to pay him $12 or $13 mil instead of $9.5 mil. The option money just gives them the right to decide if they will extend him, but they can still walk away from it if they chose to. It would be the wisest business decision.

[RiverDog]

I will say 8 games suspension and minimal jail time, if any. I am going to guess the 49ers pay his option because if they don't and he has an impact in 2014 in the games he does play, they'll be forced to pay him $12 or $13 mil instead of $9.5 mil. The option money just gives them the right to decide if they will extend him, but they can still walk away from it if they chose to. It would be the wisest business decision.

I wouldn't be so sure. What I am reading quotes inside sources with the Niners that they will not pick up the option.

But you could be right. After all, Jimmy Boy didn't really mean it when he said that they wanted to be "beyond reproach in everything we do."

[HumanCockroach]

Your guesses are as good as mine, think you guys are on the "minimal" end of the spectrum on this, but I certainly am not claiming to "know" what he ends up with. IMO he won't play football this season, but for all I know Goodall will let him skate. The law will as well and Smith will be there week one. It's possible, even if unlikely that the multiple life threatening actions of Mr. Smith will be forgiven, it happens.

[I-5]

I am not a Kaepernick fan, either as a player or as a person. Having said that, I can't find anything bad to say about him in regards to this silly news story. Seems like it's not anyone else's business but his.

[Eaglehawk]

In NYC, they have a "no carry" law where you can't even carry a hand gun and ammo together within the city limits. Most permits issued there are for premises only, meaning in your house. The general consensus is that New York State, especially since the Connecticut school massacre, has the toughest gun laws in the land and NYC adds even more restrictions and penalties.

I wish I could link the article, have to wait till I get home from vacation, but I'm currently reading about a 28 year old former Marine with no criminal history that was facing a mandatory 3.5 years in prison after he asked where he could check in his gun before entering the Empire State Building. I can remember the discussion about Plaxico that we had at the old PI, how if he would have done what he did in some place like Montana, he would have had a $150 fine and no jail time or something like that. The variances in these gun laws is absurd.

Anyhow, I don't claim to understand the gun laws. I don't own a hand gun, just a couple of shot guns and a .22 rifle, and I don't live in a big city. But I'd be surprised if Smith got significant jail time when he didn't use his weapon in the commission of a crime. I'm just guessing, but I would think that fact would sway a judge or jury. I know it would me.

Poor Aldon. He's fighting a 3 headed monster. He has these gun charges, the DUI, and the Commish. Now I see where the Niners probably won't pick up his option. Obi said it right, the guy tore up his lottery ticket. These kids are so spoiled that they are too naïve to understand when they are blessed with the opportunity to earn millions and be set for life while poor slobs like us have to work ourselves to a pulp to earn in a lifetime a fraction of what those guys make in a year.

Riv, sad but true. I was just thinking about that. Some of them are spoiled rotten. They have no clue how good they have it, and how lucky they are. Sounds like a family problem and a friends problem as well. They have no friends that have helped them put things in perspective. I suspect that many of these folks friends are "enablers".