Penny has arrived

[Aseahawkfan]

I have no faith in Carson or Penny at this point. The best predictor or future performance is past performance.

Yep. Flashes in the pan are not a career.

[NorthHawk]

The question I posed was as we look like we’re going to offer him a contract, what do you
think the FO will offer? Not what should we offer.

[Aseahawkfan]

Don't know. Maybe 5 million a year for 2 years with an option 3rd year.

[RiverDog]

The question I posed was as we look like we’re going to offer him a contract, what do you think the FO will offer? Not what should we offer.

What's their confidence level in Carson at? Do they think he can return from his neck injury? It's pretty hard to figure out what the Hawks are going to do about Penny until we know how comfortable they are with Carson.

[Oly]

What's their confidence level in Carson at? Do they think he can return from his neck injury? It's pretty hard to figure out what the Hawks are going to do about Penny until we know how comfortable they are with Carson.

I agree, but I honestly hope they aren't confident. I think that if you have any confidence about a physical RB returning from a neck injury, it's too much confidence. I wish there was a better option than Penny, because I also think that if you have confidence that Penny's short run of really good games predicts his future better than the years before that, it's too much confidence. Between those uninspiring options, I'll have more confidence in Penny. I don't want to see the team counting on anyone coming off neck or head injuries.

[NorthHawk]

And neither Carson nor Penny have got through a season without missing time from injury.
With another game added, I think it's even more important to draft a RB that can carry the load if need by.

[Oly]

And neither Carson nor Penny have got through a season without missing time from injury.
With another game added, I think it's even more important to draft a RB that can carry the load if need by.

Absolutely. Better yet, with our poor draft capital and needs elsewhere, I'd like to see them go with a UDFA for RB.

[NorthHawk]

That would be nice, but UDFA's rarely have the impact better RB's have.
We've passed by at least 2 great RB's and are stuck with 2 continually injured RB's and nobody else on the roster who can
come close to their production. So for me, it's important to get a stud RB who can last the season. And that means
taking one early in the draft.

[Old but Slow]

The draft class for running backs is deep this year. While there is no lock first rounder, there is very likely a good option in the 4th or 5th rounds.

[Hawktawk]

It’s not hard . You spent a first on Penney : something like a sixth on Carson . Although Carson has been *healthier * he hasn’t been healthy and seemingly during the playoff push he’s hurt or ineffective against the same Cowboys defensive Penney averaged 7.9 on 4 carries. Carson is very good when healthy . Penney is a back Carson can’t carry his jock strap when he’s healthy nor can many backs in the league . Short sample but enough for me . Sign Penney . Restructure Carson or let him walk .

[Stream Hawk]

I might even go a little higher, like $5M/year. But a lot would depend on my confidence that Carson can return and stay healthy. Despite how well Penny played down the stretch, Carson is still a better overall running back when both are healthy.

I can't agree with your take here, River. When both are healthy, Penny has entered a new stratosphere of elite running backs. His ceiling is King Henry and J Taylor numbers. Carson (while I loved his contributions when healthy) simply has a ceiling of a middling low 1,000 yard rusher/Pro Bowl ceiling. To sum, Penny>Carson when both are healthy.

[RiverDog]

Penney is a back Carson can’t carry his jock strap when he’s healthy nor can many backs in the league.

That's simply not true. Penny is not a complete back because he struggles with blocking and because of that, is not a 3 down back. Carson is, which is why he was the starter when both were healthy and why he was given a big contract at the end of last season. If he was as good as you are claiming, we would have picked up his 5th year option.

I'm open to re-signing him if he is willing to sign a team friendly contract as with the injury to Carson we don't have much of a choice, but one of the top backs in the league? You're really piling it on this morning, my friend.

[RiverDog]

I can't agree with your take here, River. When both are healthy, Penny has entered a new stratosphere of elite running backs. His ceiling is King Henry and J Taylor numbers. Carson (while I loved his contributions when healthy) simply has a ceiling of a middling low 1,000 yard rusher/Pro Bowl ceiling. To sum, Penny>Carson when both are healthy.

As I mentioned to Hawktalk, Penny is not a complete back. We all have the tendency to look at RB performance strictly on measurables, but there's another dimension that we're forgetting to take into account.

And like I said, if Penny were the better back, why couldn't he beat out Carson? Why didn't we pick up his 5th year option? You can't blame it on Waldron as Shotty had come to the same conclusion.

[Stream Hawk]

I don't know why Penny couldn't beat out Carson. That was in the past. I think he may have still been lacking confidence until the last ~6 games of 2021. Remember he was starting to light it up in 2019 as well before the ACL injury. ACLs are killers, and that likely affected his style (and confidence) all of 2020 and into 2021.

[Stream Hawk]

Also the same for refusing the 5th year option. I understand their thinking in hindsight. But things change! Adapting needs to happen in personnel evaluations as well. I'll eat my words if we resign Penny and he pulls an SA and is never the same after that.

On the contract note. There are a lot of dominoes needing to fall first. I think there may be a small bidding war, and the potential for a GM to escalate his worth. I believe that Penny has arrived (thread namesake), and will take it up to an even higher level after we give him some contract stability. Especially if we make it incentive-based. Our offense was beginning to click with him clicking. Waldron and Wilson click with Penny, too.

[RiverDog]

Also the same for refusing the 5th year option. I understand their thinking in hindsight. But things change! Adapting needs to happen in personnel evaluations as well. I'll eat my words if we resign Penny and he pulls an SA and is never the same after that.

I agree, and as I said, I'm open to re-signing him for a reasonable amount, ie $5-6M/yr. But that wasn't the point I was contesting. You guys are claiming that he's one of the best running backs in the league, and that's simply not true. It's pretty hard to argue your point when he wasn't even the best RB on his team.

On the contract note. There are a lot of dominoes needing to fall first. I think there may be a small bidding war, and the potential for a GM to escalate his worth. I believe that Penny has arrived (thread namesake), and will take it up to an even higher level after we give him some contract stability. Especially if we make it incentive-based. Our offense was beginning to click with him clicking. Waldron and Wilson click with Penny, too.

Could be. There's not a lot of high profile running backs on the market, and Penny is one of the younger FA backs and is a former first round pick so he's bound to gain some attention. But most teams don't put a high priority on running backs so there may not be as much of a market for him as you would think.

[Stream Hawk]

It sounds like we are almost on the same page. I do think that he is the best running back on our team, though. Plus like Oly said, Carson’s neck injury is also a game changer.

[NorthHawk]

Teams needing to upgrade at RB will probably have an eye on the draft as it will ge cheaper to
add talent that way. However, FA is before the draft so some may take the chance early. There are a
couple of more accomplished RBs in FA than Penny, so the bidding for him might not be as robust
as some of us might think. His injury history will always follow him and it might be a drag on offers.
But like the old saying goes “It only takes on team …”.

[Hawktawk]

I can't agree with your take here, River. When both are healthy, Penny has entered a new stratosphere of elite running backs. His ceiling is King Henry and J Taylor numbers. Carson (while I loved his contributions when healthy) simply has a ceiling of a middling low 1,000 yard rusher/Pro Bowl ceiling. To sum, Penny>Carson when both are healthy.

Yeah this here ^^^^carson is a nice back who runs angry , runs over people and breaks down frequently . He’s a 1 k back when he makes it a full season which I believe was once although he missed a game or 2. Then in the WC he had 20 yards on 14 carries while Penney had 29 on 4 carries including a 7 yard loss on a busted pitch play . I heard an interview with Penney recently and he said what I’ve been saying for months . “ when you’re getting a carry or 2 here and there you can’t develop a feel or a rhythm “. For his career in games he got 10 carries or more Penny has had a 6.1 ypc average , a ridiculous average . He was the second most efficient runner in the league behind only Josh Allen. It’s hogwash that Carson is better or more complete . There’s no analyst or coach in the league that would say that . It’s nonsense he’s not a complete back . He’s a great receiver who was actually hurt by some pussy targeting his knee joint about 20 yards downfield on a swing pass . If we’re going to take a chance on a back with an injury issue the upside is x10 with a potential game changing back that can house it from anywhere .

[NorthHawk]

I think Carson has been ground down to being a situational RB if anything.
He's just had too many injuries to continue without risking some major health issue.
He sets the tone with his running style but it's not sustainable for a year - and that's why we need to get a good RB in this draft.

[Hawktawk]

Short yardage plays with a big neck roll. I have a hard time trusting a neck injury . Penney’s legs looked healthy . Carson played 3 games or something . I still wouldn’t be surprised to see someone make a run at Penney . There is speculation Seattle took him and NE called immediately with a trade offer Schneider had never heard of and rejected . 4 picks later NE took Sony Michelle who has already been traded . Every GM in the league is at least aware of the guy .

[Stream Hawk]

Looks like he’s getting franchised. https://twitter.com/sportbread/status/1 ... 22368?s=21

[NorthHawk]

I think most GMs would look at Penny and his injury history as a big gamble and those looking for a RB will try to get one in the draft as a first choice
but if they don't get one they target then they might go after Penny. But then all it takes is one GM to really like what he saw last year and is willing
to take that chance. It will be interesting to see what offers he gets.

[NorthHawk]

Franchise Tag him at $12M/year?
If they do that they are out of their minds and if they offer it to Penny, he should sign it so fast his signature is burned into the contract.

[govandals]

I find this almost impossible to believe. A guaranteed 9.5 Mil for one year? Stupid...

[c_hawkbob]

Wow.

Egg on our faces for foregoing his option year eh?

[NorthHawk]

OvertheCap has the expected FT for RB's at $12.5M
If they do offer that tag, it will be the 2nd worst FO decision ever.

[govandals]

Who is Tom Pumpernickel? Is he some sort of Seahawk insider? I've never heard of him. News like this rarely, if ever, leaks out since Pete has been in charge. Maybe I'll eat my words here, but I'm calling BS on this.

[NorthHawk]

Who is Tom Pumpernickel? Is he some sort of Seahawk insider? I've never heard of him. News like this rarely, if ever, leaks out since Pete has been in charge. Maybe I'll eat my words here, but I'm calling BS on this.

I think we are being played. Tom Pumpernickel from Sportbread...

[govandals]

I think we are being played. Tom Pumpernickel from Sportbread...

Agreed

On the better things: I heard Keyshawn Johnson say don't be shocked if Seattle is connected Amari Cooper. I can get behind that if the price is right.

[NorthHawk]

That might make Wilson happy.

[RiverDog]

Who is Tom Pumpernickel? Is he some sort of Seahawk insider? I've never heard of him. News like this rarely, if ever, leaks out since Pete has been in charge. Maybe I'll eat my words here, but I'm calling BS on this.

Agreed.

Tagging Penny would be utter insanity. I'll believe it when it happens.

[Hawktawk]

Penney has stated he wants to stay here because the team stayed with him . So let’s see I can’t imagine anyone offering him 12 million or whatever but I’d go 8 to 10 before getting out .

[c_hawkbob]

Tom Pumpernickel
@sportbread
PARODY: i am THE bread account. the yeast rises and etc

[NorthHawk]

Penney has stated he wants to stay here because the team stayed with him . So let’s see I can’t imagine anyone offering him 12 million or whatever but I’d go 8 to 10 before getting out .

I would think that an offer from any team would be fairly high on incentives and a lower base salary.
I think somewhere along the lines of 3 years and $12M with 6 or 7 million guaranteed and the rest being
performance and availability incentives.

[Stream Hawk]

Yeah my bad. That was a fake account. I was at work and forgot to update this thread.

[tarlhawk]

A franchise tag on Penny makes no sense since he has stated a desire to return...but I could see it being used on Quandre Diggs to buy time to sign him to an extended contract...or like Frank Clark...FT the player and try for an extended contract or trade him if his demands become too financially absurd based on the market...depending on the version of FT used...a team acquiring him via outbidding the Seahawks would have to cough up two 1rst round picks...I think there are 3 versions of the Franchise Tag that a team can use.

[NorthHawk]

Putting a FT on Diggs would mean (if he signs it) a one year 12.9M Cap hit and Adams with a 9.1M
Cap hit. It would be odd for any team to commit that much money to the S positions. The other option
would be to use it as they negotiate a long term deal. But Diggs is getting beyond the age where long
term deals are given out. After the Adams deal nothing should surprise me, though.

[tarlhawk]

But Diggs is getting beyond the age where long
term deals are given out.

I was thinking 3 years maybe 4 yrs tops but the FT would buy us time to work out a deal or maybe trade him which couldn't be done if he "escaped" via free agency. If we get a healthy year from Marquise Blair a whole slew of options in our secondary would be added...making Diggs an important piece to keep by whatever means reasonable.

[NorthHawk]

I don't think $13M for 1 year is reasonable.
He may think it worth it to sign it with the intention of getting a new deal, but he's under a lot less pressure with a signed Tender.
He may look at it as a 1 year deal then go elsewhere for much less.
For instance if his plan is to play for 3 more years he would sign the tender and get 13M then go back to FA next year with the hopes
of getting another contract for 2 years at $5M per year. That could give him more money than a long term contract as any contract
he signs for 3 years would have to have guarantee close to $20M. So it could work if he's willing to accept significantly less in
future years, but it's still a lot of money for the S position.