mykc14 wrote:I love RW and don't want him to leave but another thread has caused me to do some research about something I have been wondering for awhile- how much cap space can one player take up and still allow you to have a SB caliber supporting cast? So based on my research back to 2000 as far as I can tell no SB winning QB has been even close to 13% of his teams total cap the year they won the SB. In fact most of them are below 10%. It almost seems like a lock that if your QB is making over 12% of your teams total cap you will not win the SB. This year the only QB that is left that is even above 10% of his team's is Jimmy G (he's at 13.7%). So I guess this all points to one thing for us as Hawks fans- is RW making too much for us to win another SB with him at QB? Should we move on?
RW's Cap hit as a percentage of our teams Cap total:
2018: 13.4%
2019: 13.8%
2020: 15.5%
2021: 17.5%
2022: 16.9%
2023: 17.8%
It reminds me of the office when Michael creates "The Michael Scott Paper Company" and he goes to his accountant who tells him that he needs to raise his prices. Michael says "but my prices are the only thing keeping me in business" and his accountant says, "your prices are driving you out of business." Or something like that. The point is RW is the reason we are a playoff caliber team each year, but is his contract the reason that we are not a SB contending team? I hope I'm wrong and he stays here and we win multiple SB's but I don't see it happening with his cap hits in the next 2 years. Thoughts?
Aseahawkfan wrote:Sure. We could. Pete needs to build a decent team around him, then Russell has to be able to close the deal when it's all on the line or the defense if it comes down that way at the end.
RiverDog wrote:
We also have Metcalf to take care of, who's likely to hog up another 10-12% of the cap. It's not unreasonable to think that we could have two players on one side of the ball taking up 30% of our cap, and that doesn't even consider players like Lockett, Penny, Carson, et al.
If we keep Russell, we're going to have some tough decisions to make, which is one of the reasons why I continue to advocate trading Metcalf. It's a lot easier to win w/o a #1 receiver than it is w/o a franchise QB.
RiverDog wrote:
We also have Metcalf to take care of, who's likely to hog up another 10-12% of the cap. It's not unreasonable to think that we could have two players on one side of the ball taking up 30% of our cap, and that doesn't even consider players like Lockett, Penny, Carson, et al.
If we keep Russell, we're going to have some tough decisions to make, which is one of the reasons why I continue to advocate trading Metcalf. It's a lot easier to win w/o a #1 receiver than it is w/o a franchise QB.
mykc14 wrote:You're not wrong. DK is going to get a big contract, but because he still has one more year on his rookie contract it is possible to push those big cap hits until the end of his contract. It sure would be easier if RW were taking up 10 mil less a year. Imagine the team we could have if RW's cap hit was 22 million less dollars than it was this year (difference between him and Brady). I don't blame RW for getting market value for himself, I'm just saying there seems to be a clear pattern between what you pay your QB and SB wins. I also understand that if you have a crappy QB you aren't even a playoff team. You are what we were in the 90's and nobody wants to go back there, but if we want SB wins I don't think it happens with RW and his current salary structure.
mykc14 wrote:I guess that is the issue. It is incredibly hard to put a decent team around a player who is taking up that much of the cap- which is why I think it hasn't been done.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Teams win with high paid QBs all the time. It's hard to remain dominant with a high paid players, which is as intended. It's why the salary cap works at creating a high level of competition in the NFL.
If you're not drafting well and makings stupid trades for safeties who want 18 million a year but can't cover the pass well in a passing league, then you're not even going about building a good team around your QB in the right way.
Pete is not grasping why drafting well and managing free agency with a focus on the inexpensive is important. I'm not sure why Pete and John have started to build teams in such a bad way as they seemed to grasp how to do it early on. Now Pete's just tossing away draft capital yearly on trades and we're not hitting on these picks they make at key positions like O-line and D-line. You can't fail that much at key positions and expect to do well.
Which is why I wouldn't mind seeing new blood at the HC and/or GM because I feel like Pete and John are no longer following the modern day NFL principles for how to build a quality team around a good QB.
RiverDog wrote:
I wouldn't hold my breath that Russell will give us a hometown break.
Only part of my rationale for trading Metcalf has to do with money. Wide receivers are a dime a dozen. Teams do not need a Calvin Johnson/Terrell Owens type of receivers to succeed. It's an overpaid position IMO. Give me Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin and a good QB.
mykc14 wrote:
I wouldn't hold my breath that Russell will give us a hometown break.
There is no way RW would ever give us a hometown discount, and I don’t blame him, I just don’t think we will win the SB with him making this much. Yeah I like DK alot and it would be nice to get him at a slightly reduced price. I would much rather pay him 20 mil/year than pay Adams 17.5 mil, t I see where you are coming from. Again, the nice thing about giving him 20 mil a year now is that you can spread that bonus over an extra year because of his rookie contract so on the books it’s more of a 16 mil/year contract.
NorthHawk wrote:KC is doing well with Mahomes contract along with Clark's $100M contract on the other side of the ball.
It's how the contracts are structured that determine Cap hits and they can be manipulated in many ways.
JS has chosen not to do that so far.
KC looks great, but Im talking about Cap Hits each year. This year Mahomes cap hit is only 7 million. We’ll see how good it looks in in the next few years. Its supposed to jump to 35 million next year. Imagine how much better we elf be in RW’s cap hit was 25 million less. Obviously the Chiefs are making use of Mahomes rookie deal, but unless they do something crazy with his contract next year they are going to be in trouble cap wise.
NorthHawk wrote:Mahomes is on his 2nd contract which is 10 years and $450M. It also has some provisions to move funds around and lessen the impact in future years.
Frank Clark is also on a $100M contract with other methods of mitigating Cap impacts.
However, there is some truth in the fact contracts do impact the Cap, and Clark may be available in FA because of it, but their team is trying to build towards a SB run or series thereof while we
seem to be just plugging holes and scrambling to get a pass rush and sign a bunch of backups in FA along the OL.
I'm beginning to wonder if we can't attract FA's any more without really breaking the bank. It seems we are again missing out on them the last few years - at least the top FA's.
mykc14 wrote:There is no doubt high priced QB’s win a lot of games but they haven’t won a SB (at least not it he past 21 years and I imagine that tend would continue throughout the salary cap era). We’ll see if the next crop of young QBs can get it done when there Cap hit gets over 12% but I doubt it. I hope I’m wrong, but it hasn’t been done.
As far as PC’s team management goes it has been terrible. His first “reset” was a disaster with squandered picks, dumb trades, and terrible use of FA dollars. There is little hope that he’ll get it right this time, but maybe.
obiken wrote:No, we cant, Russ will want out, and will say so around May. Then what do you do?
obiken wrote:No, we cant, Russ will want out, and will say so around May. Then what do you do?
Aseahawkfan wrote:
Brady won one last year making 25 million? That was 12.6% of the 2020 salary cap.
Peyton won in 2016 making 19 million a year. That was 16.8% of the cap in 2016.
I'll look deeper. But the percentage of the salary cap the QB takes up is not a great determinant of Super Bowl victory given teams without a good QB rarely contend on a yearly basis. You want to go to more than one Super Bowl, you need a great and often expensive QB. You want to win a one off and then maybe not even see the playoffs on a yearly basis, sure, you could give drafting a QB every year a shot.
Bottom line is regardless of QB expense, only one QB and one team have won the Super Bowl consistently for the past two decades.
According to some on here, it was all luck by that QB. So I guess you should try to draft a very lucky QB then build some team around him is the way to win more than one Super Bowl and compete every year. QB doesn't have to be elite or good, just lucky. So we need to focus on drafting the luckiest QB in the next draft to have a chance to win multiple Super Bowls.
mykc14 wrote:Brady's cap hit was above the 12% threshold (12.2, but Manning's was only 11.7% (his cap hit was only 17.5 million the year he won it).
https://overthecap.com/player/peyton-manning/1/
I completely agree that you need a good, often high priced QB to consistently be competitive in the NFL, but it appears that the model to win a SB doesn't include a QB taking up a large percentage of your cap. I am also arguing that it is not surprise that the only QB who has won or been to the SB consistently in the last 20 years is the guy who consistently has agreed to contracts below market value. When other QB's were trying to become the highest paid players at their position he was fine taking less, to help his team win. It is not a stretch to say that we probably aren't talking about Brady being the GOAT if he continually worked contracts to make him the highest paid QB in the league. Tom Brady's main goal was to win. He realized he couldn't do that while being the highest paid QB in the league. RW wants to win, but he thinks he can do that while being the highest paid QB in the league. The bottom line is since RW has made more than 5% of our teams total cap we are 2-4 in the playoffs and have missed the playoffs entirely twice.
Hopefully with good moves from our FO this off-season we can get back to the SB, but with RW's Cap hit at 17% of our total cap it's going to be tough.
Aseahawkfan wrote:
We have a test subject of one for winning multiple Super Bowls in the modern era. He took less money to have a better team around him. What can we really say. Jut another reason why he is the GOAT QB. He was one of the few QBS that wanted to win more than he wanted to get paid. Brady could have leveraged his accomplishments into an immense contract. But he wanted to set an example for his teammates that winning as a team was more important than individuals getting paid. But he might be the only guy I can remember doing this in the salary cap era. You can't force a QB to be like Brady and want to win more than he wants to get paid. They gotta want that themselves.
I doubt that. Who cares what Russ says. You don't get to force your way out under contract. Didn't work well for Aaron Rodgers, won't work well for Wilson if it is tried.
obiken wrote:I doubt that. Who cares what Russ says. You don't get to force your way out under contract. Didn't work well for Aaron Rodgers, won't work well for Wilson if it is tried.
Come on ASHF, do you really want an RW in house that declares he does not want to be here, and would be out to protect his body for the future, come on.
Yeah I agree with this . There have been leaks 2 years in a row about his wandering eyes . Now a sub par year for team and player . Let’s be honest . Of the 4 remaining QBs I’d have to take 2 over Russ right now and also 2 that have been eliminated . He’s got 2 years left on his deal but is it worth trying to appease him if he wants to leave ? In this case no . Get max value . Move him now if he bitches one more time . His career trajectory is closer to cam Newton or Joe Flacco than drew Brees or Tom Brady .
obiken wrote:Come on ASHF, do you really want an RW in house that declares he does not want to be here, and would be out to protect his body for the future, come on.
tarlhawk wrote:If "history" and "leadership" are your concerns...then explain Aaron Rodgers MVP year and the success of Green Bay in 2021? He CLEARLY stated his desire to be traded. He was "forced" to stay and his team excelled anyways. With cap issues he will probably be traded or he'll actually retire if he ignors all the urgent calls from John Elway and Denver.
tarlhawk wrote:If "history" and "leadership" are your concerns...then explain Aaron Rodgers MVP year and the success of Green Bay in 2021? He CLEARLY stated his desire to be traded. He was "forced" to stay and his team excelled anyways. With cap issues he will probably be traded or he'll actually retire if he ignors all the urgent calls from John Elway and Denver.
Hawktawk wrote:Didn’t Russ get a new OC , new Guard and another weapon in Eskridge ? Russ got 35 million. Quit whining and do your job . I hope he’s all in for the duration of what I hope is a successful end to his career . But any more leaks it’s time to pull the ripcord .
Aseahawkfan wrote:
When did Russ whine? Or this more of your delusional BS.
Hawktawk wrote:
If we’re paying 35 million better be getting our money’s worth
mykc14 wrote:[
That is the problem. We are not getting our money's worth, not even close. I'm not saying it's all on Rus either. PC wants to play a certain brand of football that does not need an elite QB to run. My thing has always been if we are going to pay RW like he is the guy then we need an offense that uses him as the guy. Right now our offense is stay ahead of the sticks, don't turn the ball over etc.
Hawktawk wrote:I consider him coming out after every playoff loss saying “ we need more dudes “ after playing like crap in pretty much every one of the losses . Then last year “ tired of getting hit so much “ having his team storm a coaches meeting to demand changes to the offense . 2 years in a row playing games about where he would play if traded .
I call that whining . I call it being a bad teammate . Me first . I want mine first but I want 3 or 4 more superbowls .
Again I’d love to be wrong and the difference with lots in the forum is I will own it . I just sense we have seen the best of Russell and it’s important to decide If it’s worth forcing him to stay if he wants to go or get the draft haul and start over . Jimmy G is a game from his second SB in 3 years . If we’re paying 35 million better be getting our money’s worth
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