Penny has arrived

[trents]

2 Full years and a 3rd year after his ACL.
He wasn't playing like a starting RB and even he said recently that he didn't know how to practice or study film or play until he was influenced by AP.

Are you saying there has been a two year time period when Penny was healthy? I'm sorry but I must have been in a coma because I missed that part of his career.

[NorthHawk]

At the start of each year he was healthy.
It obviously didn’t last.

[trents]

At the start of each year he was healthy.
It obviously didn’t last.

But because of all his injuries, Carson has missed a lot of off season practice time and in season game time. Just lack of snaps prevented him from making progress as a pro until very recently. Take away all those injuries and I have no doubt Penny would have replaced Carson as the starter well before now. He's just got more going for him from an athletic standpoint than Carson. I think AP's influence has also helped Penny progress to the next level.

[TriCitySam]

Doesn't appear to be the strongest RB group in UFA. Penny's one of the younger ones (26) and really sticks in YPC. Falcons and Dolphins are 2 teams that have RB listed as team needs. Although that doesn't mean other teams might not want to upgrade. Falcons have no cap space right now, but Dolphins are loaded ($72MM). Last year, the top two RB FA's got avg of around $5MM (includes Carson) with cap hits in the $2.5-3MM range. So, I guess that reinforces my feelings about $10MM - would seem unlikely (Fournette got $3.2MM). Not gonnna get $3MM, but $5+? Maybe.

[Hawktawk]

I was just listening to wyman and Bob. They also had Mark Schlereth on as well as John Clayton . The consensus with them is 1 maybe 2 years for 3 million base with generous incentives . Frankly I think it’s low . I hope it’s not . I tend to agree with RD someone besides me and Pete and the guys fans is gonna fall in love with him and probably overpay the consensus . I listened to Penney’s press conference along with a few others . He seems like a super humble nice kid . Sounds like he loves his teammates and wants to stay . We will see what happens when his agent gets ahold of him

[Aseahawkfan]

I'm tired of hearing people say of Penny, "He couldn't beat out Carson even when he was healthy." How big a sample size was that healthy period anyway? And would you expect the new guy on the block to replace a back like Carson who had been productive and was the established player at that position? Tom Brady didn't displace Bledsoe immediately upon joining the Patriots did he?

Gee, now you're asking how big a healthy period did he have after four years? And that doesn't send up red flags that he couldn't stay healthy enough in the previous four years to challenge a 7th round pick who couldn't stay healthy enough to play a full season?

Even Carson isn't a solid RB. He's just the best we've had and he can't even stay healthy. Our RBs have all flashed talent when healthy, but they haven't been able to stay healthy. Carson, nope. Penny, nope. Procise, nope. Collins, nope. Probably more backs I can't even remember who couldn't stay healthy. There was just Marshawn who for some reason probably to do with freakish genetics stayed healthy running like some brutal gladiator that hates defenses.

Man, I miss Lynch. Now that dude was a generational talent freak of nature. A throwback to a much older style of RB.

[Aseahawkfan]

I was just listening to wyman and Bob. They also had Mark Schlereth on as well as John Clayton . The consensus with them is 1 maybe 2 years for 3 million base with generous incentives . Frankly I think it’s low . I hope it’s not . I tend to agree with RD someone besides me and Pete and the guys fans is gonna fall in love with him and probably overpay the consensus . I listened to Penney’s press conference along with a few others . He seems like a super humble nice kid . Sounds like he loves his teammates and wants to stay . We will see what happens when his agent gets ahold of him

That seems too low. I'd take that shot in a heartbeat.

[Hawktawk]

I was just listening to wyman and Bob. They also had Mark Schlereth on as well as John Clayton . The consensus with them is 1 maybe 2 years for 3 million base with generous incentives . Frankly I think it’s low . I hope it’s not . I tend to agree with RD someone besides me and Pete and the guys fans is gonna fall in love with him and probably overpay the consensus . I listened to Penney’s press conference along with a few others . He seems like a super humble nice kid . Sounds like he loves his teammates and wants to stay . We will see what happens when his agent gets ahold of him

That seems too low. I'd take that shot in a heartbeat.

Yeah for sure . I think we paid Carson 5 or something and got 5 games . A couple were under 3 ypc. He just wasn’t healthy . He’s a very good back when healthy . But Penney looks like he could be great when healthy . He almost did too well . Hang up a few 100 yard games and we keep you for 2 million . But oh no . I don’t care who you’re playing you finish the season 135, 170 , 190 everybody in the league knows about you .

I hope Russ and PC and the fans recognize how beneficial to Russ it is having a true weapon behind him . 7 TD passes and a rush TD last 2 games . Guys running wide open all night . Against the #8 defense . I hope we can keep him and continue to develop and condition him . Very fascinating I heard an interview with Adrian Peterson today and he said he never considered coaching at a pro or even collegiate level but he’s been talking to Pete and thinks he might be interested . Bring him back on a vet minimum with incentives and maybe he helps the whole position group .

[tarlhawk]

You make it sound like Penny has a number of games with 25+ carries when the fact is that he's had just one, yesterday's game vs. the Lions, and up until last month, his high water mark for rushing attempts in any game this season was 7.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog ... haad-penny

Take out the last 5 weeks and his production is a real nothing burger.

That guy wasn't saying 25+ carries...he was commenting on how many explosive plays (25 yards or better) Penny has gotten is second only to Jonathan Taylor's total...but in far less plays. You can try to play his abilities down...but eyes alone show you a man blessed with skills being given an opportunity due to injuries to Carson and Alex Collins and if Adrian Petersen got in his ear and restored his confidence in himself...then Adrian was well worth the money to rent Adrian's services.

[Hawktawk]

That guy wasn't saying 25+ carries...he was commenting on how many explosive plays (25 yards or better) Penny has gotten is second only to Jonathan Taylor's total...but in far less plays. You can try to play his abilities down...but eyes alone show you a man blessed with skills being given an opportunity due to injuries to Carson and Alex Collins and if Adrian Petersen got in his ear and restored his confidence in himself...then Adrian was well worth the money to rent Adrian's services.

Yeah man it’s like people think those of us who advocate retaining him even at a bit of an elevated price are idiots . We understand the stats . Guys who are badly hurt for a season and obviously mis used when healthy don’t have numbers . My guess in the last 6 weeks Penney has put up the best or maybe second best 6 week stretch in team history yardage wise and likely a high ranking in the record books in rushing TDs in that stretch . We’ve never had a back average over 6 ypc . There’s just people mad they lost their 4 year old argument about whether he was first round talent . Pay up Seahawks . You drafted him and paid him and now you developed him . If you’re keeping Jamaal Adams at 20 mil on injured reserve this guys worth 5-7 easy .

[NorthHawk]

I think many if not most of us who don't think we will retain Penny think that he will be offered more by some other team.
We would all like to keep him and see him play well here, but I don't think our FO will offer the most for his services.
There have been far too many players who suddenly bloomed in a contract year, get a big contract and then fall back into obscurity for GMs to not be wary.

[tarlhawk]

I think many if not most of us who don't think we will retain Penny think that he will be offered more by some other team.
We would all like to keep him and see him play well here, but I don't think our FO will offer the most for his services.
There have been far too many players who suddenly bloomed in a contract year, get a big contract and then fall back into obscurity for GMs to not be wary.

John Schneider has until March 18th (Beginning of new league year) to negotiate with players who become UFA for 2022. Most players receive their extentions the off season before their final season under contract...but those who are allowed to play their last season under contract are often allowed to "test" the FA market...and if the takers are few...perhaps they come back with a contract that allows our GM to prioritize his efforts/resources to create a "best case" team. Personally it must be hard to keep relations at a distance so you can make and be trusted to make the hard decisions that are business not personal. In a good cop/bad cop equivalence Pete plays good cop/John plays bad cop.

[Aseahawkfan]

I just can't recall any RBs who suddenly blossomed in the fourth year of their contract just before they hit the free agent market who have done well. I also can't think of many guys who have had four years of injury issues who suddenly became healthy for even the next few years. Maybe others have more examples of this occurring, but I can't think of any non-QBs. Even with QBs I can't think of many with injury issues who turned it around. Mostly just underperforming guys who went to new teams or turned it around. It's just unusual for a RB to suddenly turn it around and stay healthy after having problems, real unusual.

Pete and John can assess that better than us if they stick around. So we'll find out what they think as free agency progresses.

[Hawktawk]

I just can't recall any RBs who suddenly blossomed in the fourth year of their contract just before they hit the free agent market who have done well. I also can't think of many guys who have had four years of injury issues who suddenly became healthy for even the next few years. Maybe others have more examples of this occurring, but I can't think of any non-QBs. Even with QBs I can't think of many with injury issues who turned it around. Mostly just underperforming guys who went to new teams or turned it around. It's just unusual for a RB to suddenly turn it around and stay healthy after having problems, real unusual.

Pete and John can assess that better than us if they stick around. So we'll find out what they think as free agency progresses.

Honestly I can’t think of another example either Asea . But neither can I remember many backs with the blend of size , speed and elusiveness . Regardless of how much time they spent in rehab or on the bench . He reminds me of Shawn Alexander with more speed and physicality . He also joined SA as the only man in team history to rush for 130 plus with 2 TDs in 3 straight games . After like 7 starts . Let’s see what happens . I think Seattle will likely stay in the bidding a while . The impact on Russel and the offense was obvious .

[tarlhawk]

I just can't recall any RBs who suddenly blossomed in the fourth year of their contract just before they hit the free agent market who have done well.
Pete and John can assess that better than us if they stick around. So we'll find out what they think as free agency progresses.

Its called opportunity...he didn't "suddenly" blossom...his skill set was on display in limited play. As an example think of Dee Eskridge in limited action he flashed great speed/acceleration then got K.O.'d by a severe concussion...he missed a big chunk of opportunity to flash more consistently but we trust he will when given the opportunity next year.

College Football has more examples where a player was featured for max number of plays while his back up had to wait for opportunity or an injury suffered by the player he waited behind. Penny "blossomed" because hard work/rehab and confidence boost met opportunity. Our offensive line play has also blossomed...this is a great offensive team when everyone is healthy and executing as the TEAM moves forward.

[Aseahawkfan]

Its called opportunity...he didn't "suddenly" blossom...his skill set was on display in limited play. As an example think of Dee Eskridge in limited action he flashed great speed/acceleration then got K.O.'d by a severe concussion...he missed a big chunk of opportunity to flash more consistently but we trust he will when given the opportunity next year.

College Football has more examples where a player was featured for max number of plays while his back up had to wait for opportunity or an injury suffered by the player he waited behind. Penny "blossomed" because hard work/rehab and confidence boost met opportunity. Our offensive line play has also blossomed...this is a great offensive team when everyone is healthy and executing as the TEAM moves forward.

Name the examples of players who have done as you stated. I'm happy to hear evidence of players who turn it all around in year 4 of a contract at the end of that contract. I'm all ears for all the examples you can name. I don't care much what you're opinion is as I much prefer evidence, not conjecture absent proof.

And Percy Harvin is an amazing player when healthy, better than Penny or Eskridge. But who cares if they aren't healthy or are crazy. I'd take an above average consistent producer for a full season over a superstar 4 games a year myself.

I don't believe in O-line play getting better at the end of the season. I trust that to carry in to next season about as much as I trust the defense to start the season strong. This team roster needs work and lots of it. That's how I would go into the offseason. I would not try to sell myself that the end of the season was what to expect next year.

In fact, I'd bet against it. Duane Brown is a year older. So is Bobby. Our D-line needs some real work to be good.

[Hawktawk]

Penney has had a broken road for sure . And analyzing it his career stalled due to a coach who wouldn’t start him to a devastating injury to back to a coach who wouldn’t start him and give him 20 carries instead of Carson for 4 years .

Sure it’s a compressed sample . But in 7 starts and some very productive 2 carry games earlier in the year Penney has over a 6 yard per carry average on the season . He has tied a Seahawks record with the grea Shaun Alexander rushing for 130 and 2 TDs in 3 straight games in 7 starts . He’s set a record as the first Seahawks back to record 170 + yards back to back in 7 starts . Call me a fan boy . I’ll wear it with pride. everything is a risk in this league . Yeah it’s a half season snapshot but it comes with 2 Seahawks records . Count me in . I’m all in .

[RiverDog]

Penney has had a broken road for sure . And analyzing it his career stalled due to a coach who wouldn’t start him to a devastating injury to back to a coach who wouldn’t start him and give him 20 carries instead of Carson for 4 years .

Sure it’s a compressed sample . But in 7 starts and some very productive 2 carry games earlier in the year Penney has over a 6 yard per carry average on the season . He has tied a Seahawks record with the grea Shaun Alexander rushing for 130 and 2 TDs in 3 straight games in 7 starts . He’s set a record as the first Seahawks back to record 170 + yards back to back in 7 starts . Call me a fan boy . I’ll wear it with pride. everything is a risk in this league . Yeah it’s a half season snapshot but it comes with 2 Seahawks records . Count me in . I’m all in .

We seem to have duplicate arguments going on, with the same discussion occurring in two threads.

You can't blame Penny's problems on a "coach who wouldn't start him". It was/is a slam dunk that Carson is the better running back when both were healthy. Carson was better at driving the pile, harder to bring down, and thus a better choice for short yardage situations. He was the better blocker of the two and was at least a draw with Penny as far as who was the better receiver. Penny had his chances but he could never beat out Carson.

There was more to our decision not to pick up Penny's 5th year option than his injury history. We made the decision to re-sign Carson, who had his own injury history working against him, to a 2nd contract and decided to go with him because he was the better all around back. Period.

[tarlhawk]

Penny had his chances but he could never beat out Carson.
There was more to our decision not to pick up Penny's 5th year option than his injury history. We made the decision to re-sign Carson, who had his own injury history working against him, to a 2nd contract and decided to go with him because he was the better all around back. Period.

You and Hawktawk are both right and wrong equally. Carson's contract came up for this year. March 19th 2021 Christopher Carson signed a 2 year, $10,425,000 contract with the Seattle Seahawks, including a $4,500,000 signing bonus, $5,500,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $5,212,500. In 2022, Carson will earn a base salary of $4,500,000 and a roster bonus of $425,000, while carrying a cap hit of $6,425,000 and a dead cap value of $3,000,000.

In 2020 wk-14 Carson (63 yds) Penny (6 yds)...wk-15 Carson (69 yds) Penny (9 yds)...wk-16 Carson (44 yds) Penny(19 yds)...Rams playoffs Carson (77 yds) but Penny had a lvl 1 knee strain and missed the playoffs. Later in March of 2021 Carson got a 2 year extension for his previous successful years...2018 (1151 Yds 9TD)...2019 (1230 yds 7TD)...2020 (681 yds 5TD) and uncertainty of Rashaad Penny.

It wasn't Carson beating out Penny to get our GM to drop 5th year option. 5th year options are an NFL forced contract only given to 1rst rd picks and all elements of 5th year when signed are guaranteed...Penny and his 5th year cost would have been a guaranteed 5 million. Originally 5th year "options" only guaranteed against injury...not the full contract as it currently is.

Chris Carson has had a history of injuries as well. His rookie year of 2017 he broke his ankle in wk 4 and missed rest of 2017. In 2018 he missed 2 games with a lingering hip injury. In 2019 he fractured his hip in wk# 16 and didn't require surgery. In 2020 he missed 4 games due to suffering a mid foot strain but Penny wasn't able to take advantage since his 2019 injury kept him out the first 13 games of 2020 and in the final 3 games Penny totaled 34 yards. Carlos Hyde early on then Alex Collins benefited from Carson's injuries.

Finally the 2018 wild card game results as a Coach Pete choice between RB Carson and Penny needs placed in context.
Rookie year 2018 Penny had 419 Yds 2 TD while Carson had 1151 Yds with 9 TD
wk 15 KC Chiefs Carson 122 yds 2 TD Penny injured
wk 16 Cardinals Carson 122 yds 1 TD Penny 4 ATT 6 yds
WC Playoffs Dallas Carson 20 yds 13 att Penny 4 Att 29 yds but 1 att got 28 Yds so high avg was one explosive 28 yd play while other 3 att netted 1 yd. Based on the Chiefs and Cardinal games that closed out the season...they kept feeding Carson the ball against a stingy Dallas Run Defense and Carson still being better at Pass Pro for RW who tried to win back the game...

[NorthHawk]

The bottom line is he wasn’t good enough to beat out Carson for the starting role when both were healthy.

[tarlhawk]

The bottom line is he wasn’t good enough to beat out Carson for the starting role when both were healthy.

You're the one who keeps acting like Penny was drafted to "beat out" Chris Carson but my contention based on hearing Pete Carrol talk in media conferences past and present is they were hoping to have a "one-two punch" in both of them (as feature backs)...There was 3 years where both shared cheap rookie contracts that overlapped ... but injuries to both kept them from seeing the field as a duo. The 2019 game against the Vikings (wk 12 Dec 2) showed the luxury of having both...Chris Carson scored 1rst on a 1 yd TD in the 1rst qtr tying up the game at 7-7. In the 3rd qtr Penny also scored on a 1 yd TD once more tying the game at 17-17...early in the 4th qtr Penny scored a TD from an RW 13 yd pass making it 34-17...enough to hold off a 2 TD rally from the Vikings later in the 4th. Carson finished the game with 102 Yds with one rushing TD while Penny had 74 Yds with 2TD (one rushing/one receiving).

Whether the O-Line wasn't schemed well yet or because of the nagging injuries of both of them...Carson burst ahead while being drafted a year before Penny and had excellent production with back to back 1000 YD+ seasons. Penny finally realized his opportunity as a solo feature back when Carson and Collins suffered injuries this year...was it a crossroads? ... or do we plow ahead with both healthy but at a higher cost. Our GM has some difficult decisions ahead irregardless.

[Hawktawk]

I saw an amazing stat regarding Penney’s last 5 games . He was the best running back in the league and it wasn’t close . Jonathan Taylor who was in the MVP discussion had around 460 yards . Penney had 671, 485 AFTER CONTACT

Another interesting tidbit in the same article is that teams have tried to trade for Penney twice since he was drafted . One team called immediately after he was selected . JS said he had never heard of that before. Neither team has been identified but the Pats took Sony Michelle 4 picks later .

Anyone who thinks we are getting some 1 year bare bones deal is delusional . So if we are bidding with the goat do we up the ante ?

[NorthHawk]

You're the one who keeps acting like Penny was drafted to "beat out" Chris Carson but my contention based on hearing Pete Carrol talk in media conferences past and present is they were hoping to have a "one-two punch" in both of them (as feature backs).

Then you don't understand how Pro sports work.

[Hawktawk]

[quote="NorthHawk"

Then you don't understand how Pro sports work.[/quote]
I think tarihawk understands fine . Beyond that here’s the Penney stats that matter . 2018 4.9 ypc . 2019 5.7!!! Ypc before hurt with around 360 yards getting the crumbs that fell off the table .

2020 he got 7 carries if my info is correct . Maybe still recovering. Early this year 1 or 3 carries . Most was 7 until SF when he had 10 and and a couple nice carries which is when I saw the Penney from 2019. Since then he’s been far and away the best back in the league .

And this is for Tarihawk . I’m aware of Penney’s chunk run on 4 touches in the 2018 WC . One guy got 14 touches for 20 one got 29 on 4. Imagine giving him 8 or 10? Maybe a completely different game . Carson can’t touch his talent . Not close .
PC lost some games not developing the guy .

[tarlhawk]

Then you don't understand how Pro sports work.

More judgement...surprised. Well you live in your doom and gloom world and I'll enjoy mine since ignorance is bliss (sarcasm)

[Hawktawk]

I swear the sports side of the forum is getting as chippy as the political side . What part of having a generational talent in a Seahawks uniform is bad ? Sign the man .

[tarlhawk]

And this is for Tarihawk . I’m aware of Penney’s chunk run on 4 touches in the 2018 WC . One guy got 14 touches for 20 one got 29 on 4. Imagine giving him 8 or 10? Maybe a completely different game . Carson can’t touch his talent . Not close .
PC lost some games not developing the guy .

Pete is loyal to the RB who took him "to the dance". Penny was coming off missing wk-14 (49ers) and wk-15 (Chiefs) games and in wk-16 he was limited to 6 yds on 4 att. In those same games Chris Carson had 119 1TD/116 2TD/122 1TD heading into the Cowboys playoff game. In the playoff game Pete stayed loyal to Carson through the first half...in the 3rd qtr Penny made his first play...a 5 yd gain off RT...the 2nd play was a 28 yd gain off RT to the Cowboy 45...his 3rd play ran toward Left End but tackled behind for -7 yds where Seattle stalled with passes.
Penny only had 1 more play (3rd qtr) where he ran up the middle for 3. Mike Davis was tried and Carson a couple more times but Dallas was stout. The 4th qtr was all passing mostly.

Penny has overcome his injuries finally.
A hamstring injury cost him 3 games early in the 2019 season. Then he tore multiple ligaments, including the ACL, in his left knee in Week 14.
That knee injury had him sidelined until Week 15 of 2020. Penny played sparingly in the final 3 regular-season games but missed Seattle’s Wild Card loss to the Rams with more knee trouble.

His future with new found confidence and Pete's trust can offer hope should we be able to sign him again...

[Hawktawk]

Pete is loyal to the RB who took him "to the dance". Penny was coming off missing wk-14 (49ers) and wk-15 (Chiefs) games and in wk-16 he was limited to 6 yds on 4 att. In those same games Chris Carson had 119 1TD/116 2TD/122 1TD heading into the Cowboys playoff game. In the playoff game Pete stayed loyal to Carson through the first half...in the 3rd qtr Penny made his first play...a 5 yd gain off RT...the 2nd play was a 28 yd gain off RT to the Cowboy 45...his 3rd play ran toward Left End but tackled behind for -7 yds where Seattle stalled with passes.
Penny only had 1 more play (3rd qtr) where he ran up the middle for 3. Mike Davis was tried and Carson a couple more times but Dallas was stout. The 4th qtr was all passing mostly.

Penny has overcome his injuries finally.
A hamstring injury cost him 3 games early in the 2019 season. Then he tore multiple ligaments, including the ACL, in his left knee in Week 14.
That knee injury had him sidelined until Week 15 of 2020. Penny played sparingly in the final 3 regular-season games but missed Seattle’s Wild Card loss to the Rams with more knee trouble.

His future with new found confidence and Pete's trust can offer hope should we be able to sign him again...

You’re on it with the facts . I had forgotten how well Carson had played down the stretch in 2018. He had over 100 yards vs Dallas in a critical early season win on a ton of carries and as I recall he missed the following week with some sort of strain . But I’m a fat guy on my couch and I can see it’s pointless giving Carson any more carries in the first half . Then Penney pops one and gets 4 total carries . The fact he had a 7 yard loss and still averaged 7.5 is even more remarkable . Pete’s greatest strength is as a super motivational positivity guru . He has a philosophy about Pete ball that’s been successful. But as an x and o guy his situational football decisions regarding personell aren’t good sometimes . He was flat footed in the game . The thing about Penney is he’s really a north south runner , more patient than Carson and far more sudden to the second level
. He’s been pass blocking well, always could catch . He’s been hit in the legs dozens of times now . He’s healthy . I love Carson when he’s heathy .
If they get Penney back and get similar performance to he and Russ down the stretch we’re going to the Super Bowl with a record setting offense .

[NorthHawk]

More judgement...surprised. Well you live in your doom and gloom world and I'll enjoy mine since ignorance is bliss (sarcasm)

All right. Here's how Pro Sports work:

Teams never draft players in the early rounds to be "sidekicks" or to play second fiddle to the starter. They are always drafted to start either in their first or 2nd year.
So Pete is again talking BS to try to rationalize his mistake in passing by a better RB who would have started over Carson if not from the first game, then early in the
first year. And we would have extended him.

[tarlhawk]

Teams never draft players in the early rounds to be "sidekicks" or to play second fiddle to the starter. They are always drafted to start either in their first or 2nd year.
So Pete is again talking BS to try to rationalize his mistake in passing by a better RB who would have started over Carson if not from the first game, then early in the
first year. And we would have extended him.

1968 1rst rd Larry Csonka...1969 3rd round Mercury Morris (Nice sidekick)...both got used and both abused the teams they faced...so I guess you convinced me...NOT.

[Agent 86]

By Michael-Shawn Dugar Jan 17, 2022 21

Rashaad Penny finally looks like a first-round running back. What is that worth to the Seahawks?

There is no player on the Seahawks who did more to boost his stock entering free agency than Rashaad Penny, who ran rampant through opposing defenses in the final five games of the year and finally looked like a player worthy of a first-round pick.

Now, Seattle must decide how much Penny is worth to the franchise.

Despite being the team’s top pick in the 2018 draft, Penny didn’t make his first start until Week 11 of his fourth season, which says everything about the tumultuous nature of his career. For Seattle, the most disappointing part about Penny’s four-year tenure up until the final month of the 2021 season wasn’t just Penny’s availability, it’s that he wasn’t ready to play in the moments Chris Carson went down.

In 2018, Penny’s rookie year, Carson missed Week 4 with a groin injury. Seattle started Mike Davis, who rushed for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Carson returned the next week with Davis as his backup; Penny was inactive. A few weeks later, Penny flashed his first moments of big-play potential, rushing for 108 yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Rams while Carson sat out due to injury. He received a then-career high 12 carries and averaged 9.0 yards per rush. It was the first sign that Penny was well-equipped to be a lead back.

Penny’s problem was that he never had that chance again. Carson remained healthy the remainder of the 2018 season. He suffered a cracked hip in Week 16 of the 2019 season, but Penny was already on injured reserve with a torn ACL suffered a few weeks earlier. Carson missed Weeks 8 to 11 of the 2020 season, but Penny was still nursing that knee injury. Carson hurt his neck in Week 4 of this season, but Penny was once again on injured reserve, this time with a calf injury. How could Seattle evaluate Penny’s potential as a lead back if whenever the original lead back was injured, Penny was, too?

In his return from injured reserve, Penny backed up Alex Collins and rushed for 16 yards on 13 carries in two games. Then, in his first career start, Penny in Week 11 against Arizona took his first carry 18 yards … and suffered an injured hamstring, causing him to miss the next game.

For the better part of 3½ seasons, Seattle had just one legitimate example of Penny’s potential without Carson in the lineup.

Then he spent five weeks performing like the best running back in football.

Penny started every game from Weeks 14 to 18 and led the league with 671 yards and six touchdowns, an average of 134.2 rushing yards per game and 7.29 yards per carry. The next closest running back was Colts rushing champion Jonathan Taylor, who had 463 yards and a pair of touchdowns in that span. Penny in the final five weeks of the season averaged 5.27 yards per carry after contact, which is more than any other tailback’s traditional yards per carry average in that same stretch, according to TruMedia.

Penny’s season average of 6.29 yards per carry led the league among qualifying running backs and his eight carries of at least 25 yards tied with Taylor for the league lead — and Penny did it with nearly one-third of the carries. According to TruMedia, only Cleveland’s Nick Chubb (15.6 percent) delivered explosive carries at a higher rate than Penny (13.6).

“You can’t tackle him,” coach Pete Carroll said, marveling at Penny’s explosive play rate after his 190-yard day in Seattle’s season finale. “That’s crazy stuff and it just validates how effective he’s been.”

Penny is an unrestricted free agent and a member of a thin running back class. Turning 26 in February, Penny’s top competition on the open market would appear to be Denver’s Melvin Gordon (29 at the start of next season), Tampa’s Leonard Fournette (27), Arizona’s James Conner (27) and the Rams’ Sony Michel (27).

The running back market is interesting to examine. Of the top 10 highest-paid running backs by average annual value, only Gordon, who signed a two-year, $16 million contract, inked his deal with a new team. Last season, the highest-paid player by average annual salary on a free-agent deal with a new team was Kenyan Drake, who left Arizona for a two-year, $11 million contract with Las Vegas. Other notable contracts for running backs who switched teams: Jamaal Williams got two years and $6 million from Detroit; Mike Davis signed in Atlanta for two years, $5.5 million.

Carson was Seattle’s leading rusher for three years before he hit free agency and in terms of availability, he was an ironman compared to Penny. From 2018 to 2020, Carson started 41 of Seattle’s 48 regular-season games, the fourth-most among players at his position in that span. Even when accounting for the leg fracture that derailed Carson’s 2017 season, he played a greater percentage of Seattle’s games on his rookie deal than Penny did on his. Penny has been available for 37 of Seattle’s 65 regular-season games since entering the league. He has made six starts.

Comparing injury histories is an inexact science but it is a major part of the equation when assessing Penny’s value. As proficient as Carson proved to be as Seattle’s starter, he commanded just $5.5 million per year on a two-year contract. For comparison, Green Bay signed Aaron Jones — a fifth-round pick in Carson’s draft class — to a four-year, $48 million contract last offseason. The last time a running back broke the bank like that and switched teams was in 2019, when Le’Veon Bell signed a $52.5 million deal with the Jets. That same offseason, Mark Ingram signed a three-year, $15 million deal with the Ravens. Bottom line: It’s hard for running backs to get paid.

So, what does this mean for Penny?

The league’s salary cap was $182.5 million in 2021. It jumps to $208.2 million this year. This will cause the raw numbers on free-agent deals to look much richer than last season; however, it’s all relative to percentage of the salary cap.

Carson has a $6.4 million cap hit next season that accounts for 2.9 percent of Seattle’s salary cap. Despite Penny setting the league on fire to close the season, a new Seahawks deal for Penny that eclipses Carson’s piece of the salary cap pie in 2022 seems unlikely. Remember, Seattle declined a one-year, $4.5 million, fifth-year option on Penny during the last offseason. Paying Penny more than Carson would suggest Seattle has zero concerns about Penny’s injury history or his ability to continue performing like the best back in the league, all while projecting that he’ll be the starter over Carson.

What’s more likely is Seattle structuring a Penny deal that accounts for a smaller percentage of the cap than Carson in 2022, with a potential raise coming in 2023 when Carson is scheduled to hit free agency again. If that happens, Penny’s 2022 cap hit would project to be around $3 million. (One scenario that seems easy to rule out is the franchise tag, which Over the Cap projects to be north of $12 million.)

Beyond the financial piece of the puzzle, there’s still the matter of figuring out roles for Penny and Carson in 2022 if they’re going to share a backfield. The phrase “one-two punch” will be thrown around often this offseason, but Penny’s scorching-hot stretch to end the year illustrates that he operates at the peak of his powers when he’s the “one” in that dynamic. He suggested as much in his exit interview.

“It’s hard for a running back to get into a rhythm when you get the ball in the first quarter and maybe not see another carry until the third quarter,” Penny said. “As a running back you’re not getting any rhythm in you, so you don’t have a feel as much as you want. That was my situation. I’m thankful and blessed (for) what happened this last month. These coaches showed trust in me. That showed why I want to be back here.”

Penny has no problem sharing a backfield with Carson and the feeling is mutual on his teammate’s part. The two are practically best friends. Ego won’t be an issue for them as much as opportunity. Carson has essentially been a starter since he entered the league and he should be the lead back going forward, if healthy. That’s a notable caveat, since three of Carson’s five NFL seasons have ended with him on injured reserve. In December, he had surgery to stabilize a nagging neck injury. Carroll in his season-ending exit interview didn’t have much of an update on Carson beyond saying the running back expects to be “full steam” by training camp.

Ever the optimist, Carroll will likely operate under the belief Carson will be healthy and capable of being the No. 1 running back in 2022. If that’s the case, Penny defaults to the No. 2 position, which leads to an important question: Can Penny be the guy he was to end 2021 if he’s a backup?

Penny has four career games with double-digit carries on nights in which Carson started and finished the game: Week 2 against Chicago in 2018, Week 2 against Pittsburgh in 2019, and Weeks 12 and 13 against Philadelphia and Minnesota, respectively, in 2019. Penny in those games rushed for 295 yards on 49 carries and three touchdowns, with two of those scores eclipsing 37 yards. He averaged 6.02 yards per carry in those games.

So, it’s possible. That two-game stretch late in the 2019 season would be an ideal scenario for the Seahawks: Carson carrying the load with Penny ready to explode when called upon. Carson and Penny were on rookie deals that season so the circumstances aren’t entirely the same, but it is an example of the two tailbacks coexisting in a way that doesn’t totally cap Penny’s potential.

Penny could test the waters and see what sort of offers he’d command on the open market. But Penny on numerous occasions has said Seattle is “home” and has expressed zero interest in playing for any other team. He has sounded intent on rewarding Seattle for sticking with him through the lowest moments of his career. But none of that will prevent teams from expressing interest, particularly the ones that were terrible at running the football, have plenty of cap space and are able to offer Penny a lead role (Miami best fits this description). However, recent running back history suggests that Penny’s best offer is likely to come from Seattle. It’s just a matter of what that deal looks like.

Retaining Carson topped Carroll’s list of priorities entering the 2020 offseason. Following one of the best running back stretches in franchise history, Penny is likely atop that list this offseason.

“I’ve never been anywhere else,” Penny said, “and I pray don’t.”

[RiverDog]

That's a good summation of the situation with Penny, and pretty much confirms my opinion. Thanks for sharing it.

If we can get Penny for $5M or less, I'd be willing to give him a shot. Any more than that and we're putting too much money into the RB position with two players that are prone to injury. We have other holes to fill and with players like Metcalf coming due, we need to be pinching every penny we can...pun intended.

[Hawktawk]

Whatever happens there is no point in bringing back Penney to back up
Carson and get 5 carries . He’s clearly a starter that put up astronomical numbers as a feature back .

Carson’s done well , real well when healthy and as the article points out he’s ended 3 of his 5 years on IR. But Penney has had a top gear Carson doesn’t have since day one . The remarkable thing is he’s kept it through injuries . He’s been rock solid health wise for 7 games . But don’t waste money if he’s gonna back up
Carson .

[RiverDog]

Whatever happens there is no point in bringing back Penney to back up
Carson and get 5 carries . He’s clearly a starter that put up astronomical numbers as a feature back .

Carson’s done well , real well when healthy and as the article points out he’s ended 3 of his 5 years on IR. But Penney has had a top gear Carson doesn’t have since day one . The remarkable thing is he’s kept it through injuries . He’s been rock solid health wise for 7 games . But don’t waste money if he’s gonna back up
Carson .

Man, I swear Hawktalk, once you see a player you like, you are laser focused on him with a pair of horse blinders a foot wide. Penny is NOT clearly the starter. When both were healthy, Carson was widely recognized as the better back by people a lot smarter than you and me, including Pete Carroll. That dynamic may have changed, but we won't find out until next September after the two have fought it out providing that Penny is still on the roster.

There's more to playing running back than taking handoffs.

[NorthHawk]

They still need to draft a very good RB as nobody knows if Carson will be able to play
after neck surgery. As mentioned in the article above, Carson has never played a full season
so we would end up with 2 RBs with suspect injury histories. If Carson can’t come back, we
will need a good RB to replace him.

[NorthHawk]

It's now coming down to the time when contract offers will be made.
According to some reports the Seahawks are interested in re-signing him and he's interested in staying.

So what are the guesses for what we offer him?
My guess is a 3 year contract for $12M with performance bonuses/incentives totaling another $8M and $8M guaranteed.

[RiverDog]

It's now coming down to the time when contract offers will be made.
According to some reports the Seahawks are interested in re-signing him and he's interested in staying.

So what are the guesses for what we offer him?
My guess is a 3 year contract for $12M with performance bonuses/incentives totaling another $8M and $8M guaranteed.

I might even go a little higher, like $5M/year. But a lot would depend on my confidence that Carson can return and stay healthy. Despite how well Penny played down the stretch, Carson is still a better overall running back when both are healthy.

[NorthHawk]

I don’t have any faith that Carson should play again considering he has a neck injury.
I’m no doctor but for a player with such a physical running style, it’s a big concern.

[RiverDog]

I don’t have any faith that Carson should play again considering he has a neck injury. I’m no doctor but for a player with such a physical running style, it’s a big concern.

Yup, I agree. If not for Carson's injury status, I doubt that we'd be all that interested in bringing back Penny as he's not a 3 down back.

[obiken]

I have no faith in Carson or Penny at this point. The best predictor or future performance is past performance.