Penny has arrived

[NorthHawk]

I think his history will tend to suppress the offers he gets, but they will be more than we offer.
In any event, we have to come out of this draft with a stud RB even if we do end up re-signing Penny
2 RBs that can really pound the ball can keep both fresh and lower the potential of an injury derailing the Offense.

[Oly]

Penny ain't gonna take a prove it deal, he's an unrestricted FA, someone's gonna be willing to pay him.

All it takes is one, and you're probably right that there will be one, but I feel that other teams are going to be nervous, as well. If the Hawks signed a injury-plagued player from another team to a big, long contract, it wouldn't go over very well with the fanbase. It's not clear to me that teams are going to be busting down his door for his signature.

[tarlhawk]

The only way to guarantee keeping Penny is using our only Franchise TAG on him...Before Diggs injury I was thinking we could use it on him but the last time we tried to use it was on Frank Clark...but we ended up trading him...not sure if our GM would try it again.

NFL free agency is a double-edged sword.

Sometimes, fans pray their teams lock down a rising superstar before he escapes to the open market. Other times, they light candles and cross their fingers that the dynamic player who'd fit a gaping hole in their lineup comes free.
Unlike other sports, this doesn't just come down to when a contract expires and if the two sides can agree to an extension. A team can designate a player to receive a franchise tag, and depending on which form of the tag is used, the player will be all but sure to remain with the team for the next year.

During the window where franchise tags can be applied—which opens on Monday, February 17 and closes Monday, March 3—it's gut-check time.

Tags in Three Flavors
Only one player per team, per season, can receive a franchise tag. In order to tag a player for the year, the team must tender a qualifying one-year contract offer. Based on the amount of the offer, the tag is either "exclusive," "non-exclusive" or a "transition" tag.
These qualifications changed with the last NFL collective bargaining agreement, so let's review them.

The "exclusive" franchise tag gives the offering team exclusive rights to the player. The player may sign his one-year franchise offer, at which point it becomes fully guaranteed (unless the player fails to stay physically fit). The player can also continue to negotiate a long-term deal with his current club until 4 p.m. ET on July 15; if they can't reach a long-term extension, the player plays under his franchise tag for the remainder of the year.
The exclusive tag amount is pretty simple to calculate. It's either an average of the five largest salaries at the offered players' position at the end of restricted free agency this season, or 120 percent of the offered player's current salary—whichever is greater.

The "non-exclusive" tag is just that; other teams can negotiate long-term contract offers with the player until July 15. If the player signs one of these offers, his original club can either match that offer, or allow the player to leave for his new club—and be compensated with two first-round draft picks from the new club.

The non-exclusive offer level is...well, it's complicated.
The NFL salary cap is the perfect intersection of football and finance.
The NFL starts by calculating a "franchise tag" amount for each of the prior five years. The franchise tag amount is the average of the top five salaries at each position for each year. Then the NFL adds up the last five franchise tag amounts and divides them by the prior five total salary-cap amounts.
The NFL takes this rolling five-year average of how much of the salary cap that position's franchise tag takes up, then takes that percentage of this year's salary cap as the non-exclusive offer amount.

The "transition" tag is a little less expensive than the other two; it's calculated the same way as the non-exclusive tag, except it starts with the average of the top 10 salaries for each year instead of the top five. With the transition tag comes much less security, though.
The original club gets the right to match any offer sheet the player signs, but that's it—no compensation if it lets him leave. Since it's only a little more to upgrade to the non-exclusive franchise tag, the transition tag is very rarely used.
Most teams will pursue the "non-exclusive" tag, as the calculated salary is lower than the exclusive tag, and the compensation of two first-round draft picks is tempting.


Ty Schalter/Bleacher Report

The Future
After a franchise-tagged player spends another season with his old team, everyone is right back at square one—except, not quite.

Tom Uhlman/Associated Press
For players coming off of a franchise tag, as Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Michael Johnson is, a second straight tag gets very unwieldy. By the rules above, it will have to be 120 percent of the prior season's tag amount. Depending on the position, this would be all but prohibitively expensive.

Should a player be tagged twice in a row, he's extremely unlikely to receive a third tag. The rules around a third tag are breathtaking: The offer number jumps up to the same as the quarterback tag number or 144 percent of the player's second tag offer, whichever is greater.

These rules were put in place after Hall of Fame nominee Walter Jones collected three straight franchise tag offers with the Seattle Seahawks in the mid-2000s. Jones would get the offer, wait until all minicamps and OTAs were over, then sign and report toward the end of training camp with a fully guaranteed salary.
Jones traded some long-term security for this, but he was paid very handsomely and got extended offseason vacations (while the Seahawks practiced in limbo, without their stud left tackle). The way the rules are now, it's impossible to see any player getting the same arrangement.

Ultimately, the franchise tag is a means to an end. For every player and team, the franchise tag could be a welcome, mutually beneficial way of keeping a player around, a bitterly regretted compromise that ensures acrimonious negotiations going forward or anywhere in between.

[RiverDog]

Cbob is exactly right. There is no extending Penny. We opted out of that option when we declined to pick up his 5th year option. He is an unrestricted free agent and is going to command top dollar. Despite his injury problems, Penny not only had a very impressive last 6 weeks, he's a former first round pick. Someone is going to pay him, and it won't be a "prove it" contract. He's going to get a multiyear deal in the neighborhood of $10M a season.

Running backs have the shortest careers of any other position on the field. It simply does not make sense to pay a high risk player that kind of money when we already have one under contract and have so many other mouths to feed.

Someone is going to sign him. Why not us? besides it seems a month ago almost nobody thought he would be worth a damn or draw any interest There isn't another back quite like him right now.ELITE

We've gone over the reasons why not for weeks, so there's no sense kicking a dead horse. I get it, you have a Geno like infatuation with him.

There are quite a few running backs out there that don't have the injury history that Penny has, including Melvin Gordon and Sony Michel, that are going to cost about the same as will Penny, but I don't see us going after any of them:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/s ... limit-100/

BTW, this site has Penny valued at $10.7M, about what I expect him to sign for.

There are other FA running backs out there that don't have the injury history that Penny has:

[NorthHawk]

I think his injury history and that he came alive in his contract year will make teams wary of a big contract.
All it takes is one, though and I think he will be gone, but I doubt his best offer is $10M or thereabouts.

[tarlhawk]

I think the use of a Franchise Tag is the only way an Unrestricted free agent (irregardless of how he became a UFA) can be kept by a team willing to offer a pay jump without getting into a bidding war. The Non-Exclusive FT would force a team to surrender two first Rd Picks to take him off our hands.

[NorthHawk]

I think the use of a Franchise Tag is the only way an Unrestricted free agent (irregardless of how he became a UFA) can be kept by a team willing to offer a pay jump without getting into a bidding war. The Non-Exclusive FT would force a team to surrender two first Rd Picks to take him off our hands.

Some of the posters have said it can't be used in this case. I don't know the answer but the FT is $10.5M or thereabouts so I think it's too much for our FO to consider.

[Hawktawk]

We've gone over the reasons why not for weeks, so there's no sense kicking a dead horse. I get it, you have a Geno like infatuation with him.

There are quite a few running backs out there that don't have the injury history that Penny has, including Melvin Gordon and Sony Michel, that are going to cost about the same as will Penny, but I don't see us going after any of them:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/s ... limit-100/

BTW, this site has Penny valued at $10.7M, about what I expect him to sign for.

There are other FA running backs out there that don't have the injury history that Penny has:

m

Quite a bit of revisionist history on the forum .

I don’t really care . Penney is performing far above these stiffs you mention . Huard said about 20 minutes ago “
He’s playing like one of the best backs in the NFL” . That doesn’t remotely describe these FAs . A back like this is a game changer who changes field position as fast as a psssing game . If he stays healthy he’s going to be a problem for whatever team he faces . I don’t want it to be us.

[RiverDog]

I think the use of a Franchise Tag is the only way an Unrestricted free agent (irregardless of how he became a UFA) can be kept by a team willing to offer a pay jump without getting into a bidding war. The Non-Exclusive FT would force a team to surrender two first Rd Picks to take him off our hands.

The way I read this, we can't use the franchise tag:

Injuries have prevented Penny from fulfilling his potential thus far in Seattle and with the team declining his option, he will become an unrestricted free agent next March and his future with the team will be hinging on his 2021 performance.

With the deadline for a decision on his fifth-year option looming, Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny will now become an unrestricted free agent in 2022.

According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, Seattle is not expected to pick up Penny's fifth-year option, which would have been worth a fully-guaranteed $4.5 million. Under the terms of the latest CBA, his $1.95 million salary for 2021 would also have become fully-guaranteed, which may have played a role in the decision.

https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/news/re ... %20million.

It's a moot point anyway as even if we could, it would be very doubtful that we'd use it on him.

[mykc14]

Cbob is exactly right. There is no extending Penny. We opted out of that option when we declined to pick up his 5th year option. He is an unrestricted free agent and is going to command top dollar. Despite his injury problems, Penny not only had a very impressive last 6 weeks, he's a former first round pick. Someone is going to pay him, and it won't be a "prove it" contract. He's going to get a multiyear deal in the neighborhood of $10M a season.

Running backs have the shortest careers of any other position on the field. It simply does not make sense to pay a high risk player that kind of money when we already have one under contract and have so many other mouths to feed.

It's really tough to tell how much a contract actually costs a team but I doubt Penny gets $10 mil a year. I would assume nothing more than 6 and that would come with low guarantee's. Obviously it only takes one team, but I don't think he will get an offer that will approach a real $10 mil a year.

[Aseahawkfan]

Cbob is exactly right. There is no extending Penny. We opted out of that option when we declined to pick up his 5th year option. He is an unrestricted free agent and is going to command top dollar. Despite his injury problems, Penny not only had a very impressive last 6 weeks, he's a former first round pick. Someone is going to pay him, and it won't be a "prove it" contract. He's going to get a multiyear deal in the neighborhood of $10M a season.

Running backs have the shortest careers of any other position on the field. It simply does not make sense to pay a high risk player that kind of money when we already have one under contract and have so many other mouths to feed.

Penny isn't going to command top dollar. I don't think anyone is going to be that stupid. But he might get an offer that at least puts us out of the running. Top dollar is 12 to 15 million a year and I doubt anyone is shelling that out. It doesn't have to be top dollar to beat us. No intelligent GM is going to give him some long-term deal based on 4 games at the end of a contract year. NFL GMs know RB is one of the toughest positions in the NFL and you don't spend much money on them because they don't last long. The highest paid RB in the NFL is making 15 million a a year, which is on the low end of contract money for a position. They are making that low money because the NFL shelf life of a RB is pretty low.

Penny's last four games may have some excited some GM to spend more than others on him. But most smart GMs are going to look over his entire body of work and go from there. That likely means some kind of 2 or 3 year deal with prove it incentives. This idea Penny has tons of leverage is pretty ridiculous. He doesn't. The best RBs in the NFL are already getting paid and already set. Penny is a guy who flashed at the end of a contract year. That is more often than not fool's gold for the person who overspends at the RB position. You don't want to lock up that much money and a contract into a position is that has a short shelf-life.

The euphoria of the past weeks will wear off pretty quickly as negotiations start.

[TriCitySam]

It will be interesting to see what kind of offers he gets. I had heard last week in the media they thought it would be $3-4MM. I kinda find both ($10MM and $3MM) surprising numbers, but if it's on the low end I would expect us to take a shot. His production has always been good on a YPC side, and in '21 nobody's close (Chubb is 5.5, Penney is 6.3 - Carson is 4.3). Too bad he couldn't stay on the field these past couple years.

[RiverDog]

It will be interesting to see what kind of offers he gets. I had heard last week in the media they thought it would be $3-4MM. I kinda find both ($10MM and $3MM) surprising numbers, but if it's on the low end I would expect us to take a shot. His production has always been good on a YPC side, and in '21 nobody's close (Chubb is 5.5, Penney is 6.3 - Carson is 4.3). Too bad he couldn't stay on the field these past couple years.

$3M would be an extremely low offer. Heck, Mike Davis, the journeyman that once played for us, makes $3M.

Carson's cap hit next year is $6.425M:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/salaries/br ... ning-back/

If Penny were to come in somewhat less than $5M, it might not be a bad gamble. But there's only one team, the Browns, with two RB's making over $5M per season, and you have to think that there's a reason why more teams don't pay for depth at that position.

[Stream Hawk]

Penny isn't going to command top dollar. I don't think anyone is going to be that stupid. But he might get an offer that at least puts us out of the running. Top dollar is 12 to 15 million a year and I doubt anyone is shelling that out. It doesn't have to be top dollar to beat us. No intelligent GM is going to give him some long-term deal based on 4 games at the end of a contract year. NFL GMs know RB is one of the toughest positions in the NFL and you don't spend much money on them because they don't last long. The highest paid RB in the NFL is making 15 million a a year, which is on the low end of contract money for a position. They are making that low money because the NFL shelf life of a RB is pretty low.

Penny's last four games may have some excited some GM to spend more than others on him. But most smart GMs are going to look over his entire body of work and go from there. That likely means some kind of 2 or 3 year deal with prove it incentives. This idea Penny has tons of leverage is pretty ridiculous. He doesn't. The best RBs in the NFL are already getting paid and already set. Penny is a guy who flashed at the end of a contract year. That is more often than not fool's gold for the person who overspends at the RB position. You don't want to lock up that much money and a contract into a position is that has a short shelf-life.

The euphoria of the past weeks will wear off pretty quickly as negotiations start.

I agree that Penny does not have plenty of leverage. But not the argument that he suddenly showed up in the last few weeks being fool's gold. If it was true fool's gold, then where the hell was he in first 3/4 of the season? If Penny (or anyone) has a magic button to turn on, then sign me up for that!

In my opinion, Penny produced because something finally clicked. AP perhaps had something to do with that (likely). Also pure luck of not getting hurt after every play. He has always had that extra gear, and it finally clicked along with the blocking scheme here. Wyman today commented that he noticed after Penny appeared banged up yesterday, he simply went back in; he used to leave the field after such knick-ups.

I could be wrong, but I think the Hawks will bring him back. He was drafted here, and I bet they have some pride to keep their own.

[Hawktawk]

It will be interesting to see what kind of offers he gets. I had heard last week in the media they thought it would be $3-4MM. I kinda find both ($10MM and $3MM) surprising numbers, but if it's on the low end I would expect us to take a shot. His production has always been good on a YPC side, and in '21 nobody's close (Chubb is 5.5, Penney is 6.3 - Carson is 4.3). Too bad he couldn't stay on the field these past couple years.

2 weeks ago I heard it was 3 million per on the top end . That was just under 350 yards ago and 4 house calls . He’s tied with Taylor from Indy who has received league MVP consideration with 12 runs of 25 yards or more . He has less than a third the carries . He outran a safety who had the angle yesterday , flat out beat him to the spot at 238 pounds . He’s a generational talent . I certainly hope he’s cheap snd teams overlook him in FA but I rather doubt it will be that way . I think Seattle should be proactive and sign him ASAP . Make an offer that reflects production but also potential . If it’s more then they like oh well. Barring injury this is a 2k plus back 15-20 rushing TDs This isn’t time to count beans . There isn’t anyone remotely like this in FA .

[tarlhawk]

If Penny were to come in somewhat less than $5M, it might not be a bad gamble. But there's only one team, the Browns, with two RB's making over $5M per season, and you have to think that there's a reason why more teams don't pay for depth at that position.

Because RB is no longer an offensive feature when NFL rules have been altered to benefit 3 and 4 WR sets. A respected WR can cut off a route and pickup more yards than your avg RB can on a rush...your special RB's who can create Explosive plays (20+ yds) are able to earn a place...but they are fewer and fewer which is why a play making WR can command way richer contracts than your typical RB. The nice thing about the O-Line is that most College Football O-Line can still Run Block well but Pass Pro ready O-Linemen are fewer and harder to find.

[Aseahawkfan]

I agree that Penny does not have plenty of leverage. But not the argument that he suddenly showed up in the last few weeks being fool's gold. If it was true fool's gold, then where the hell was in first 3/4 of the season? If Penny (or anyone) had a magic button to turn on, then sign me up for that!
In my opinion, Penny produced because something finally clicked. AP perhaps had something to do with that. And the luck of not getting hurt after every play. He has always had that extra gear, and it finally clicked with the blocking scheme here.

I could be wrong, but think the Hawks will bring him back. He was drafted here, and I bet they have some pride to keep their own.

And that's what a GM has to figure out. Did something click or does he come back after getting signed next year, get hurt early, and go back to what he was the previous 3 and a half years.

In the first 3/4 of the season, people thought this guy is doing nothing and he's gone after this year. Four or five games later, now a certain segment of the fan base is just sure Penny's 3 and a half years prior was the false Penny and this four games is the new Penny.

That's what a GM has to figure out. What do I risk on that and for what price?

I think the good teams like the Baltimore's, New England's, Pittsburgh's, and Green Bay's, the perennial contenders won't spend unreasonable money to find out. They contend every year because they're good at drafting and developing and don't spend much money in free agency or for stupid trades and contracts like the Jamal Adams trade and conrtract.

But some team wanting to make a splash may overspend on Penny and maybe they'll be right. But I would not make that bet for a high price if I'm the Seahawks GM. I would be running my team like a perennial contender always knowing my drafting and development is good enough to win at any point in time without having to make stupid trades or take on stupid contracts.

[RiverDog]

If Penny were to come in somewhat less than $5M, it might not be a bad gamble. But there's only one team, the Browns, with two RB's making over $5M per season, and you have to think that there's a reason why more teams don't pay for depth at that position.

Because RB is no longer an offensive feature when NFL rules have been altered to benefit 3 and 4 WR sets. A respected WR can cut off a route and pickup more yards than your avg RB can on a rush...your special RB's who can create Explosive plays (20+ yds) are able to earn a place...but they are fewer and fewer which is why a play making WR can command way richer contracts than your typical RB. The nice thing about the O-Line is that most College Football O-Line can still Run Block well but Pass Pro ready O-Linemen are fewer and harder to find.

That's definitely a big part of it, but another factor is that running backs are more susceptible to injury and have shorter careers than any other position.

Long gone are the two RB sets, or rather, a fullback and halfback. No more Larry Czonka and Mercury Morris/Jim Kiick, Paul Hornung and Jim Taylor, etc. Even the Shawn Alexander/Mack Strong type combo is rarely seen. The '20's' personnel sets, ie 2 RB's, isn't used very much.

[Stream Hawk]

And that's what a GM has to figure out. Did something click or does he come back after getting signed next year, get hurt early, and go back to what he was the previous 3 and a half years.

In the first 3/4 of the season, people thought this guy is doing nothing and he's gone after this year. Four or five games later, now a certain segment of the fan base is just sure Penny's 3 and a half years prior was the false Penny and this four games is the new Penny.

That's what a GM has to figure out. What do I risk on that and for what price?

I think the good teams like the Baltimore's, New England's, Pittsburgh's, and Green Bay's, the perennial contenders won't spend unreasonable money to find out. They contend every year because they're good at drafting and developing and don't spend much money in free agency or for stupid trades and contracts like the Jamal Adams trade and conrtract.

But some team wanting to make a splash may overspend on Penny and maybe they'll be right. But I would not make that bet for a high price if I'm the Seahawks GM. I would be running my team like a perennial contender always knowing my drafting and development is good enough to win at any point in time without having to make stupid trades or take on stupid contracts.

It's not just a segment of the fanbase. Don't forget about former players and "the media".

If we (sorry, I consider the Hawks as "we") are staying the course, then Penny is a CRITICAL component to our success as a true contender. Penny has generational/blue-chip talent. True SuperBowl contenders have such players. Carson is great, but not blue-chip great. I can imagine Schneider knows this and will do his best to lure Penny back. As far as other contenders, the Packers resign their key players, such as Aaron Jones. I realize AJ had a huge track record compared to Penny, but sometimes a good GM has to take risks.

[Hawktawk]

Some of us were on his jock the day they picked him. Plenty were paying attention when he started going off in 2019 . My question was whether he would recover from the injury and if so would he still have the elite burst and top speed . We see the answer now and everyone in the league thinks it’s enough of a sample size now . Yes Stream he is a generational talent. If we want more of what we got out of our offense including Russ the last few weeks we need THIS back.

[Aseahawkfan]

It's not just a segment of the fanbase. Don't forget about former players and "the media".

If we (sorry, I consider the Hawks as "we") are staying the course, then Penny is a CRITICAL component to our success as a true contender. Penny has generational/blue-chip talent. True SuperBowl contenders have such players. Carson is great, but not blue-chip great. I can imagine Schneider knows this and will do his best to lure Penny back. As far as other contenders, the Packers resign their key players, such as Aaron Jones. I realize AJ had a huge track record compared to Penny, but sometimes a good GM has to take risks.

You really think a RB after 4 years is a generational blue chip talent? After 4 games? Wow. I just checked his log. He has 4 games of high performance this year at the end of the year. And 6 total games in his entire four years of 100 yard plus games. His game logs.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PennRa00/gamelog/

That is not generational blue chip talent to me. I think a bunch of people are suffering from recency bias and you're all going to go back to being quiet when he falls back to earth. But that's me.

But with sports, we have to wait and see. Right now you have this in your head and only his stats falling back in the gutter are going to prove it wrong.

[Aseahawkfan]

Some of us were on his jock the day they picked him. Plenty were paying attention when he started going off in 2019 . My question was whether he would recover from the injury and if so would he still have the elite burst and top speed . We see the answer now and everyone in the league thinks it’s enough of a sample size now . Yes Stream he is a generational talent. If we want more of what we got out of our offense including Russ the last few weeks we need THIS back.

You love hyperbole. I have heard nothing close to everyone in the league knowing anything. We'll see who is willing to pay for a shot to see if they are right. That will tell us what the league thinks.

[Aseahawkfan]

We have some football historians on this forum. How many RBs have turned it around in year 4? We have any quality examples of this occurring?

I can think of a few QBs who came into serviceable or better later in their careers like Rich Gannon and the ultimate in Kurt Warner. What about RBs? How many RBs that did next to nothing for four years, then blew up after year 4?

[Hawktawk]

We have some football historians on this forum. How many RBs have turned it around in year 4? We have any quality examples of this occurring?

I can think of a few QBs who came into serviceable or better later in their careers like Rich Gannon and the ultimate in Kurt Warner. What about RBs? How many RBs that did next to nothing for four years, then blew up after year 4?

It’s called injury . It’s not hard to understand . When healthy he was taking carries from Carson in 2019 . I recall a 50 + yard house call where a safety bounced off him like a superball , didn’t even slow him down . On the play he was injured he had taken a swing pass about 30 yards and was chopped in the knee on the sideline .

Watching him it’s clear he was mis used as a change of pace back getting a carry or 2 here and there . He’s a bell cow back that needs fed the ball . He’s not just a big fast guy either . He’s got vision and balance and patience . Az spent 4 quarters chopping at his knees every chance they got. Baker grabbed his leg and did a gator roll twisting his knee once causing obvious pain .
I thought he might be hurt but he put up 90 yards after the play. So I think he can take a hit . I think he’s a generational talent with huge question marks but last I checked we had a starter that can’t match this level of performance and is hurt all the time himself . Penney was hurt , never got a chance to develop . Maybe having AP who had a devastating injury and returned to dominance helped him get his mind right .
We drafted him and developed him and now he’s getting ready to pay off. Sign him . I’m not sure why good news about one of our players upsets so many .

[NorthHawk]

He was healthy for the start of most years and he couldn’t beat out Carson.
I like Carson, and admire the way he plays, but if Penny was such a stud, he should have best out Carson
for the starting role.

[trents]

It's not just a segment of the fanbase. Don't forget about former players and "the media".

If we (sorry, I consider the Hawks as "we") are staying the course, then Penny is a CRITICAL component to our success as a true contender. Penny has generational/blue-chip talent. True SuperBowl contenders have such players. Carson is great, but not blue-chip great. I can imagine Schneider knows this and will do his best to lure Penny back. As far as other contenders, the Packers resign their key players, such as Aaron Jones. I realize AJ had a huge track record compared to Penny, but sometimes a good GM has to take risks.

I know many of us would like to see major changes involving either Pete, John, or Russ or some combination of all three but I just don't see indications of that from those closest to the team and its ownership. So, I agree with Stream Hawk. We can see how that Pete ball still works with Penny so I imagine the management will go out of their way to keep him in the fold. Pete ball doesn't work when the other backs have been used. And I have no expectation that Carson will play again and if he does that he will ever be the same. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

[Stream Hawk]

You really think a RB after 4 years is a generational blue chip talent? After 4 games? Wow. I just checked his log. He has 4 games of high performance this year at the end of the year. And 6 total games in his entire four years of 100 yard plus games. His game logs.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PennRa00/gamelog/

That is not generational blue chip talent to me. I think a bunch of people are suffering from recency bias and you're all going to go back to being quiet when he falls back to earth. But that's me.

But with sports, we have to wait and see. Right now you have this in your head and only his stats falling back in the gutter are going to prove it wrong.

My bad, I probably should have said potential blue chipper.

[Hawktawk]

He was healthy for the start of most years and he couldn’t beat out Carson.
I like Carson, and admire the way he plays, but if Penny was such a stud, he should have best out Carson
for the starting role.

Penney not getting starts was a coaching decision intially but by mid 2019 he was getting carries and looking awesome . Then hurt . Then in hindsight the way the Hawks were attempting to integrate him back in with a carry here and there just wasn’t helping , just hurting his confidence . I think he’s a shy kid that lacks a bit of confidence. Great backs get stronger as the game goes on but they need carries . Penney is averaging ove 6 ypc . Carson’s career average is 4.4 . There’s no comparison between the men other than Carson was hurt in college and constantly nagging injuries , gone at playoff time most years or plodding and in effective like Dallas in 2018. Penney had a far higher YPC in the game but only got a few touches .


Nobody’s blind here . If you can’t see the talent off the charts you’re blind . It you don’t understand the risk you’re ignorant . But that cuts both ways . The only best outcome for PC and Seattle is resign the kid and hope he’s really caught lightning in a bottle . Pay AP well to mentor him.
Let him walk and get snapped up by a rival and try tackling him 2 times a year . Of course he could fail , get hurt , get lazy . I don’t get that sense from his personality . Our current guy sat most of the year so wtf . 1st round blue chip talent with 1 year of mileage on him entering his 5th year. Played as well as any Hawks back ever during the stretch and changed the whole offense .
Sign him . We have a ton of cap space I am told . Roll the dice .

[Aseahawkfan]

The way I read this, we can't use the franchise tag:

Injuries have prevented Penny from fulfilling his potential thus far in Seattle and with the team declining his option, he will become an unrestricted free agent next March and his future with the team will be hinging on his 2021 performance.

With the deadline for a decision on his fifth-year option looming, Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny will now become an unrestricted free agent in 2022.

According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, Seattle is not expected to pick up Penny's fifth-year option, which would have been worth a fully-guaranteed $4.5 million. Under the terms of the latest CBA, his $1.95 million salary for 2021 would also have become fully-guaranteed, which may have played a role in the decision.

https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/news/re ... %20million.

It's a moot point anyway as even if we could, it would be very doubtful that we'd use it on him.

Are you sure we can't use the franchise tag? It's only 8.5 million or so. That would be worth it test the waters. We have 55 million in cap space this year.

[Aseahawkfan]

It’s called injury . It’s not hard to understand . When healthy he was taking carries from Carson in 2019 . I recall a 50 + yard house call where a safety bounced off him like a superball , didn’t even slow him down . On the play he was injured he had taken a swing pass about 30 yards and was chopped in the knee on the sideline .

Watching him it’s clear he was mis used as a change of pace back getting a carry or 2 here and there . He’s a bell cow back that needs fed the ball . He’s not just a big fast guy either . He’s got vision and balance and patience . Az spent 4 quarters chopping at his knees every chance they got. Baker grabbed his leg and did a gator roll twisting his knee once causing obvious pain .
I thought he might be hurt but he put up 90 yards after the play. So I think he can take a hit . I think he’s a generational talent with huge question marks but last I checked we had a starter that can’t match this level of performance and is hurt all the time himself . Penney was hurt , never got a chance to develop . Maybe having AP who had a devastating injury and returned to dominance helped him get his mind right .
We drafted him and developed him and now he’s getting ready to pay off. Sign him . I’m not sure why good news about one of our players upsets so many .

I'm asking you to provide proof that RBs with these type of injuries have turned it around in year four of their contract. I want to hear all these stories that the Penny with the four huge games is the real Penny and not the Penny who couldn't stay healthy and couldn't beat out 7th round pick Chris Carson for the starting job even when he was healthy. I know you forget that stuff when you're all emotionally wound up about Penny and his four game explosion with only one dud game you ignore in the last five games.

You remember that 39 yard game against the L.A. Rams playing against that monster Aaron Donald and that Ram's D-line on 12-21? Did you completely block that game out of your mind while you were ragging on Russ?

Rams D-line took Penny and made him look pedestrian. But they do that to a lot of teams and backs when they are playing well. Too bad Stafford isn't Russell Wilson or they would have a real shot at the Super Bowl. Give Russell that Rams defense, he'll take us deep into the playoffs.

[Hawktawk]

I'm asking you to provide proof that RBs with these type of injuries have turned it around in year four of their contract. I want to hear all these stories that the Penny with the four huge games is the real Penny and not the Penny who couldn't stay healthy and couldn't beat out 7th round pick Chris Carson for the starting job even when he was healthy. I know you forget that stuff when you're all emotionally wound up about Penny and his four game explosion with only one dud game you ignore in the last five games.

You remember that 39 yard game against the L.A. Rams playing against that monster Aaron Donald and that Ram's D-line on 12-21? Did you completely block that game out of your mind while you were ragging on Russ?

Rams D-line took Penny and made him look pedestrian. But they do that to a lot of teams and backs when they are playing well. Too bad Stafford isn't Russell Wilson or they would have a real shot at the Super Bowl. Give Russell that Rams defense, he'll take us deep into the playoffs.

Penney averaged nearly 4 YPC on 11 caries vs the Rams with a QB who refused to take wide open looks on the read option leading Penney into a wall, couldn't throw the ball accurately. 3 and out after 3 and out .Deejay had almost as many carries as Penney and Homer had a few. Homer broke one and Dee Jay was just a bit better on YPC than Penney. Carrol said post game we ran the ball fine, just couldn't convert enough 3rd down to get the carries.

You're not Stevie wonder. Let me ask you what might have happened had he gotten 12, 13 15,20 all of them instead of Dee Jay?. Dee Jay is a nice back and ran OK but hes not explosive, never gonna take it home from deep. Penney? every play could be the one. There aren't many guy like that. AZ contained him most of the first half kind of like we did Derrick Henry.

And yes Asea he was the talk of the league with his performances the last few weeks . As for your example of backs coming alive in their 4th year after a devastating injury? I don't know? few who kept the speed like Penney. who cares if there's another example? Gore had horrible injurious in college and the pros and played 100 years. Penney's mentor had his foot on almost backwards. Granted he was a superstar but he came back after a year as good as new. Like I say maybe he really was the key that unlocked Penney's potential. If its a flash in the pan not too many guys have the talent to flash anywhere near that bright.

Part of recovering from injury is mental, learning to trust the repair. A guy that never had to deal with it before at any level probably had a hard time with it. He almost retired. I'm happy for him and think we absolutely should roll the dice based on his stupendous off the chart numbers and sign him. Carrol want him back for sure.

[NorthHawk]

The problem is it's an extreme rarity for a player to do relatively nothing for 4 years then suddenly become an All Pro, and especially so at a skill position.
That rarity means that most GMs (those that don't need to make a splash) will be wary of this sudden development in a contract year. On the other hand
it is more common for players to "Flash" for a few games in a contract year and then fall off after receiving a good payday.

That's the quandary we are in with Penny. Is it a temporary accomplishment or is it for real? How much of it just surprise from teams who didn't expect
to have to account for him and will they catch on to what he's doing? If the answer is yes to one or both, he may end up falling to the just ordinary RB
status from a production PoV and if given a big payday it will become just another bad move by a GM. This is why I doubt we give him a large contract,
but a GM wanting to appear to shake things up in their organization might just do so.

But I could be wrong...

[RiverDog]

The problem is it's an extreme rarity for a player to do relatively nothing for 4 years then suddenly become an All Pro, and especially so at a skill position. That rarity means that most GMs (those that don't need to make a splash) will be wary of this sudden development in a contract year. On the other hand it is more common for players to "Flash" for a few games in a contract year and then fall off after receiving a good payday.

That's the quandary we are in with Penny. Is it a temporary accomplishment or is it for real? How much of it just surprise from teams who didn't expect to have to account for him and will they catch on to what he's doing? If the answer is yes to one or both, he may end up falling to the just ordinary RB status from a production PoV and if given a big payday it will become just another bad move by a GM. This is why I doubt we give him a large contract, but a GM wanting to appear to shake things up in their organization might just do so.

But I could be wrong...

Yup. That's one of the concerns with Penny, although I do think that someone will fall in love with him and offer a multi year contract for a lot more than we're willing to pay.

[tarlhawk]

How much of it just surprise from teams who didn't expect
to have to account for him and will they catch on to what he's doing?
But I could be wrong...

I would say his best game being against a playoff team who kept its starters in...hoping to win the NFC West Championship...would be a team not surprised by the threat of Penny. Penny after the game said he appreciates how Seattle stuck with him through the hard times...dropping a 5th year option on a first rd pick is a business decision...because the 5th year is an imposed contract fully guaranteed.

[tarlhawk]

Having to "fight" for his services is not a given. The player who is about to become an Unrestricted Free Agent can meet with the GM and be extended...as long as it happens before March. (March begins the "new football year".)

[Hawktawk]

The coach loves him but until he meets Jodi that still might not matter . One thing is for sure . Someone is gonna make a huge mistake on Penney and not signing the tender was one in hindsight . But he’s gonna be on a roster somewhere making good money and he’s either gonna break down on the team and it’s their mistake or he will put up 2 k and 20+ rushing TDs and everyone who passed will have made a huge mistake . I can’t remember such an unusual situation on any team in recent history . Like Salk said this morning “ I’d like to see another 4 games “ yeah we all would but we can’t . Gotta roll the dice .

[NorthHawk]

Having to "fight" for his services is not a given. The player who is about to become an Unrestricted Free Agent can meet with the GM and be extended...as long as it happens before March. (March begins the "new football year".)

Penny has already had a serious injury. He knows that a career can end on one play, so it would be foolish to not shop himself around the league to get the most money he can.

[trents]

I'm tired of hearing people say of Penny, "He couldn't beat out Carson even when he was healthy." How big a sample size was that healthy period anyway? And would you expect the new guy on the block to replace a back like Carson who had been productive and was the established player at that position? Tom Brady didn't displace Bledsoe immediately upon joining the Patriots did he?

[NorthHawk]

I'm tired of hearing people say of Penny, "He couldn't beat out Carson even when he was healthy." How big a sample size was that healthy period anyway? And would you expect the new guy on the block to replace a back like Carson who had been productive and was the established player at that position? Tom Brady didn't displace Bledsoe immediately upon joining the Patriots did he?

2 Full years and a 3rd year after his ACL.
He wasn't playing like a starting RB and even he said recently that he didn't know how to practice or study film or play until he was influenced by AP.

[Hawktawk]

I'm tired of hearing people say of Penny, "He couldn't beat out Carson even when he was healthy." How big a sample size was that healthy period anyway? And would you expect the new guy on the block to replace a back like Carson who had been productive and was the established player at that position? Tom Brady didn't displace Bledsoe immediately upon joining the Patriots did he?

Right here . ^^^^^^^^^ I though I remembered it so I went through the stats on the 2018 WC game vs Dallas . The post game narrative was we couldn’t run the ball and had we let Russ cook we would have won . Then I look at the stat line . Leading rusher Rashad Penney with 29 yards on FOUR CARRIES. That’s his rookie year . Thats a7.5 ypc average in a playoff game on the road when the starter was getting stuffed . Don’t ask me why he got 4 carries and rode the pine . Ask Pete he’s been known to give the ball to the wrong guy and play favorites . Carson averaged 1.5 ypc on the game with a long rush of 5 yards . 2 receptions for -1 yard .

Why not Penney ? He has been dynamic when given the chance .