Managing the draft

[Old but Slow]

There did not seem a good thread to put this in, so I am starting one. And, I am not talking about storm windows, insulation, and caulking. It is interesting to me to look at how different teams regard their draft picks.

It struck me that our division seems to spend the picks in trades rather than use them in the actual draft. Assuming that this coming one is not too much of an outlier, our division (Ariz., Rams, SF, and Seahawks) has only one first round pick (Ariz). The actual draft order is not set until after the season, and some teams will get compensatory picks (the Rams may get as many as 5, the 'Hawks 0).

Further, in the first 4 rounds, the division has: Arizona (3), 1, 2, and 3d; Rams (0) with likely comp picks in 3d and 4th; SF (2) 2 and 4th with a likely 3d; and Seattle (4) 2, 3, and two 4ths. So, the division has 9 picks in the first 4 rounds with an additional 7 added in the 3d and 4th rounds. Meanwhile, for example, Baltimore has 6 picks in the first 4 rounds. And they are likely to get 3 more (a 3d and two 4th) to give them 9. Similarly, several teams have 5 or 6 picks in the first 4 rounds, and how about the NY teams as the Giants have two 1st, a 2, two 3d, and a 4th; while the Jets have two 1st, two 2d, a 3d and two 4th. Detroit also has two 1st round picks.

Only Chicago is an NFL team with no first rounder outside of our division. This does not address the quality of the teams in general (among the teams that have one pick in each of the first 4 rounds are: Buffalo, Cincy, Cleveland, Dallas, KC, Chargers, NE, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Indy, and a couple of others).

As a draft junkie, I like it best when we have a bunch of picks, especially early ones, but....

[RiverDog]

Being that you're our resident draft junkie, I have a few questions I'd like to ask:

In 2020, we had just three picks going into the draft. Was this because this draft was compromised by the pandemic, with so many colleges either limiting or canceling their seasons, offering an extra year of eligibility to players, etc so we felt that draft picks did not have the same value as in years past? If so, were we the only team that followed this model, and do you think that this model was wise?

We have had a long time policy of trading draft picks for marginal players or players on a one year rental then re-acquiring selections by trading a higher pick for multiple lower round picks. Is this philosophy sound?

We seem to have this knack for bypassing conventional wisdom picks (Bruce Irvin instead of Fletcher Cox, Rashaad Penny instead of Nick Chubb are good examples). Do we truly have a system that requires unique skills to such a degree that it is undetectable by the so called experts that establish these conventional wisdom selections or is it arrogance, that Pete and John want to prove to the world that they know more about drafting than anyone else on the planet?

[Old but Slow]

The team's draft since the advent of PC/JS is puzzling to me. The first drafts were their best, in my opinion, and it raises the idea that much of the savvy came with Schneider from Green Bay. By a couple of years the college players were scouted at GB were gone, so the Seahawk draft system was on its own. Similarly, Pete's familiarity with players he coached with or against in college were also out of the picture. So, for me, the weight of drafting was fully on the scouting information they could gather. We question the recent drafts as the province of PC/JS, but what about the scouting system?

Whether they subscribe to one of the scouting services or have their own team scouts I don't know, but it does seem to have some relevance.

The 2020 draft was frustrating as it seemed to be the product of using draft picks to fill holes with vets, which is counter to what I like to see. Build through the draft, be patient, and take the best players with only one eye on position. In other words, take the "best player available" always, factoring in position if there is a choice of equally evaluated players. Common sense is of course necessary, as I wouldn't take a first round (if we had one) QB while planning to keep a player like Wilson, but I wouldn't avoid a QB altogether.

Trading multiple draft picks for a vet who is The Answer is a fool's bargain in my eyes. Adams seems the perfect illustration, but he is not the first. I prefer the vision of finding a Russell Wilson, a D K Metcalf, in later rounds.

Has anyone else had the thought that auto-correct is some kind of elf that is trying to be helpful but has had a bit too much of the local brew? Sorry, that's OT.

[RiverDog]

The team's draft since the advent of PC/JS is puzzling to me. The first drafts were their best, in my opinion, and it raises the idea that much of the savvy came with Schneider from Green Bay. By a couple of years the college players were scouted at GB were gone, so the Seahawk draft system was on its own. Similarly, Pete's familiarity with players he coached with or against in college were also out of the picture. So, for me, the weight of drafting was fully on the scouting information they could gather. We question the recent drafts as the province of PC/JS, but what about the scouting system?

Yes, that's very close to my take. Coming out of college, Pete had a lot of experience with the talent at the college level, either having personally scouted them himself or with a network of close contacts that could give him exclusive insights. Some of our best players from those early years were from the west coast: Richard Sherman (Stanford), Brandon Browner (Oregon State), Bobby Wagner (Utah State via LA), and Marshawn Lynch (Cal). The further Pete got away from his college years, the worst his drafts got.

Whether they subscribe to one of the scouting services or have their own team scouts I don't know, but it does seem to have some relevance.

The 2020 draft was frustrating as it seemed to be the product of using draft picks to fill holes with vets, which is counter to what I like to see. Build through the draft, be patient, and take the best players with only one eye on position. In other words, take the "best player available" always, factoring in position if there is a choice of equally evaluated players. Common sense is of course necessary, as I wouldn't take a first round (if we had one) QB while planning to keep a player like Wilson, but I wouldn't avoid a QB altogether.

I'm not as strong on the BPA as you seem to be, at least for the higher picks. Higher round draft picks are more likely to make an immediate impact, so it would make sense to me that we assign a higher priority to immediate positional needs in our first couple of selections. Last year is a good example. We have a very pressing need on the offensive line, much less of one at wide receiver. Creed Humphrey, a center from Alabama, was available in the 2nd round at our #57 overall yet we take a receiver that was projected to fall in the late 2nd/early 3rd, meaning that he was likely not the BPA. It was certainly not like when Metcalf fell into basically the same range, making it a no brainer to move up and get him.

One could also argue that Humphrey was also the BPA as he was taken a few selections later by the Chiefs.

Trading multiple draft picks for a vet who is The Answer is a fool's bargain in my eyes. Adams seems the perfect illustration, but he is not the first. I prefer the vision of finding a Russell Wilson, a D K Metcalf, in later rounds.

Agreed. Going into the draft, compromised or not, with just 3 picks is absurd. This regime is several years beyond its expiration date.

Has anyone else had the thought that auto-correct is some kind of elf that is trying to be helpful but has had a bit too much of the local brew? Sorry, that's OT.

LOL! Yeah, you don't want to go off topic and get Yoder pissed off at you right after he helped get your account straightened out.

[c_hawkbob]

Welcome back ObS, hate them cyber gremlins ...

A couple observations:

I don't know if our early draft success was more a function of John's time in GB or Pete's having scouted many of the available draft picks personally while a USC, but I suspect more of the latter.

We definitely have our own scouts, pro and college. Any team that subscribes to a scouting service as their sole source of scouting doesn't belong in the NFL. On the other hand I imagine every single college scout on our payroll is quite familiar with college and HS on line scouting services.

As for BPA (and this more directed to what Riv said) I think you absolutely take the best player available in the early rounds and fill out roster needs down draft. The exception being if you have to have a QB, in which case the prevalent method is to overreach early and hope for the best.

Trading draft picks for Vets is generally OK by me but you have to go lightly, too many trips to that well will result in a three pick draft or something awful like that ...

[NorthHawk]

Scot McGluhan (sp) had a big hand in our early drafts. He also had a part of the 49ers talent acquisitions during the first part of the Harbaugh era.
Unfortunately he's said to have some substance abuse issues and didn't last here. I think he now runs a draft evaluation service.

It's interesting that ObS noted the lack of draft picks in our division. It's an odd scenario with the Rams seemingly pushing their chips into the middle of the table
to try to win a SB this year and the Cards having built a solid team through the draft. We, in the mean time traded away future high picks on a Safety with average
ball skills in the hope of continuing to tread water.

Even if we had kept our Firsts, we probably would have traded down but that could have allowed us to get both a good RB and a good Center for that pick. I was watching
the Big10 Network a little yesterday and the Center from Iowa looked pretty good. He was good in pass protection and also had the athleticism to get to the edge on
sweeps. He was also solid in the run game sealing off the defenders for the RB and getting to the 2nd level. I think he's a Junior so he should be eligible to enter the draft
if he wants. I think his name is Lindbaum?
A RB that caught my eye was Hassan Haskins from the Michigan Wolverines. He runs real tough and has some moves, too. Mid to later rounds for him.

Two Tackles that keep popping up on various Big Boards are Jaxson Kirkland from Washington and Abraham Lucas at Washington St. They look like R 2 or 3
selections, but I haven't seen much of them. Does anyone on this board know about them?

[Old but Slow]

Lucas seems like a good one, and could go in the first round. Primarily a RT. Tall and athletic. I haven't looked at Kirkland, yet.

It looks like a fairly poor draft class at the top, but could be very good in the middle rounds. None of the QB's rate first round grades, which means that only 2 or 3 will go in the first. The main strengths early seem to be defensive ends, offensive tackles and safeties. There are very few offensive skill players that should go early.

Lindebaum may be the best center and should go in the first couple of rounds, while Alex Forsyth from Oregon is a center who could be there in the 3d round.

There are some RB's that could fit for us. Zach Charbonnet (UCLA) and Kenneth Walker (Michigan St) are productive and fit the Seahawk mold. Rob Staton at Seahawks Draft Blog is big on Dameon Pierce from Florida, who was in a running by committee system so doesn't have the numbers that usually attract attention. Some good Youtube tape on him.

The way the draft is setting up it might be a good year to not have a first. After the first 10 or so picks, there is not much quality difference until about the middle of the second round. And, there is good value for a couple of rounds after that. The team might benefit from picking up another 3d rounder or two.

[curmudgeon]

Scot Mcglouhan built the super bowl rosters. John boy and Petey took credit. It’s been a downhill slide since with personnel moves…..

[tarlhawk]

Scot Mcglouhan built the super bowl rosters. John boy and Petey took credit. It’s been a downhill slide since with personnel moves…..

An interesting article tying McGlouhan/Schneider/Carrol and Russell together...written in Feb of 2014 by Seth Wickensham (ESPN) via ABC News "The Seahawks Prevailing Wisdom"

It was Scot McCloughan, the Seahawks' senior personnel executive, who like many members of the organization had been cast off and found redemption in Seattle. McCloughan is a former GM of the 49ers. He picked most of their stars before an abrupt parting in 2010. He is perhaps the NFL's premier talent evaluator, and he is on the NFL's premier scouting staff, led by GM John Schneider.

The Seahawks are not just talented. They are mysteriously talented. They are comprised not only of draft-day afterthoughts who have become quality starters but draft-day afterthoughts who have become stars. It is as confounding as it is rare.
The team that seemed for most of Super Bowl week to be a feel-good story, the plucky underdogs against the powerful Broncos, has now served notice to the rest of the NFL that it is not only more talented than every other team, but it is more talented at finding talent than any other franchise.

That starts with Carroll and Schneider, of course. They arrived at the Seahawks from opposite angles -- Carroll a reborn NFL retread after failed stops with the New York Jets and New England; Schneider a young, surprise hire from Green Bay -- but together they've created a system that nurtures talent as well as it spots it.

And as much as the Super Bowl win spoke to the virtues of total team football in the era of the franchise quarterback who covers for his team's inevitable holes, it also marked the validation of a timeless philosophy of drafting players, with a special Seattle twist.
The timeless philosophy is that of Ron Wolf, the legendary architect of the 1990s Packers. Schneider and McCloughan are both disciples of Wolf. They are approximately the same age (41 and 42, respectively) and learned in Green Bay how to build a team through the draft by, as Wolf likes to say, "playing the percentages." That means not deviating from height and weight and strength standards set for each position. That would explain Seattle's secondary, tall and physical in the era of the lithe speedster. But as McCloughan says, "You can't be stubborn."

Nowhere was that more evident than in the drafting of 5-foot-10 QB Russell Wilson. Schneider and McCloughan interviewed Wilson for two hours at the Senior Bowl two years ago and came away smitten by Wilson's unbending, even demeanor. It's perhaps Wilson's greatest attribute as a quarterback, never allowing him to overthink challenges or be overwhelmed by the stage.
Still, as McCloughan says, "the percentages are that a 5-10 quarterback will not be good."

But Schneider fought for Wilson, convincing a coaching staff that was more skeptical of his chances to make the roster than it'll ever admit. One of Schneider's strengths, McCloughan says, "is that he takes as many opinions as he can before he makes a decision." Owner Paul Allen once teased Schneider by saying, "OK, nobody has this quarterback ranked in the third round."
"This is a special quarterback," Schneider said.

Wilson is one of many special players, all of whom are fed into a coaching system that's at once cutthroat and nurturing. What Allen calls "outside-the-box thinking" works because the Seahawks can develop talent. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn said after the game that he loves to coach low-round guys because "they have something to prove" -- not unlike Carroll himself -- and it allows them to be a "developmental coaching staff."

It has set up a strange paradox: The Seahawks are proof that the draft process, as cornerback Richard Sherman says, is a "sham." Yet they've exploited that process better than any team.
The examples were everywhere on Sunday. Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith was a seventh-round pick. Sherman was a fifth-round pick. Cornerback Byron Maxwell was drafted in the sixth round. When describing his career arc, Maxwell seems to use the word "grow" three times in every sentence. The team drafted him hoping that he would eventually develop into a quality starter. Maxwell got his chance this season when Brandon Browner was suspended indefinitely in December for smoking pot.

In a 43-8 blowout, it's hard to point to a decisive moment. But in the third quarter, with the Broncos driving, Maxwell punched the ball free from Demaryius Thomas after a big catch. Every day for years Maxwell has practiced stripping the ball, swiping so hard that "I worry about hurting my teammates." Preparation met opportunity, and that fumble killed another Broncos drive.

"We have so many guys who nobody thought would be as good as they are now when they were drafted," McCloughan says.
In a game that most figured would come down to how well the Seahawks would adapt to the Broncos, Seattle didn't really change. The schedule for the week before the game was exactly as it was all season, down to snack times for players. Carroll lifted curfew Monday, an NFL player's typical Saturday night. Schneider and McCloughan held normal draft meetings at the team hotel, planning for the future as the coaches plotted for the present.
Most thought that the Seahawks' offense would have to run the ball well to win, but they rode the arm that got them there. Most thought that the Seahawks would have to trick Peyton Manning with elaborate schemes, but they mostly ran the same coverages as they showed on film, except for slightly more nickel.
"We kept saying, 'Let's not change,' " Quinn says.
As a result, the Seahawks have transcended all of the elements of the NFL that are designed to pull teams back to the middle. They have a GM and scouting staff who find stars in the late rounds, and a coaching staff that deploys them artfully. They have a second-year quarterback who outplayed a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer on the game's biggest stage. They have a coach who is still avenging slights from more than a decade ago. All of the pieces are there for sustained excellence.
But the NFL is a great equalizer. Nobody is good without luck. McCloughan seemed to sense this as he left the stadium. His fingerprints are all over the two most talented rosters in the NFL.
Since joining the Seahawks in 2010, he's had offers to be a GM, and it is only a matter of time before he says yes. Only a team made up of cast-offs and underdogs can appreciate how hard and essential it is to maintain magic.
That's why after the game, Schneider and McCloughan gave each other a hug and exchanged words both simple and rare, exclusive each year to only one team:
"We did it." Schneider/Carrol took credit? Sounds like a sound corroboration of the three putting it all together...

[trents]

tarlhawk, it was difficult for me to separate what you were quoting from a 2014 article and what your are advocating in the present as being true of the present organization.

Surely you see how the Hawks' present talent level is a shadow of what it was in 2014 and surely you are not saying that Pete and John draft/personnel decisions still have "magic" are you?

[tarlhawk]

We have a very pressing need on the offensive line, much less of one at wide receiver. Creed Humphrey, a center from Alabama, was available in the 2nd round at our #57 overall yet we take a receiver that was projected to fall in the late 2nd/early 3rd, meaning that he was likely not the BPA. It was certainly not like when Metcalf fell into basically the same range, making it a no brainer to move up and get him.
Going into the draft, compromised or not, with just 3 picks is absurd. This regime is several years beyond its expiration date.

Draft boards are a well kept secret for obvious reasons...they project the culmination of scouting inputs and our GM/HC communications with trusted "outsiders/(players of interest) coaches"...and many more. When you quote projected values its values of Draft "Experts" not GM's highly paid to keep the teams needs in mind.

Perhaps Eskridge was highly valued in Waldron's system...his injury was unfortunately an unforeseen major concussion greatly delaying the value envisioned when he was drafted. The timing of Ethan Pocics injury only made it seem painful to have not chosen Creed. Many draft choices aren't made for instant impact but with the potential/upside of a developed NFL player in our future. 2018/2019/2020 and 2021 all have drafted players yet to grow into their "envisioned fit/purpose"

...Marquise Blair wasn't drafted to be a nickle corner but a hard hitting safety with a high ceiling. He is stuck behind two all-pro safeties because his injury helped force the hand of bringing Jamal Adams aboard. Rashaad Penny was drafted to complement Chris Carson...not replace him but to cut down on some of his snaps to lower the risk of his physical running style. His own injuries left Carson as the only feature back (which exposed a higher risk to injury) by featuring Carson alone.

IMO Ethan Pocic and Jamarco Jones were drafted to strengthen our O-lines depth while Phil Haynes held promise of replacing a starting guard...these roles have not materialized. Justin Britt and Jarran Reed earned second contracts but the team had higher contracts to resolve which squeezed the time to do anything with Britt's/Reed's new contracts.

Many fans seldom realize that some draft picks/free agent signings are merely for upgrading Special Teams...an important overall team component for securing advantageous field position.

[tarlhawk]

tarlhawk, it was difficult for me to separate what you were quoting from a 2014 article and what your are advocating in the present as being true of the present organization.

Surely you see how the Hawks' present talent level is a shadow of what it was in 2014 and surely you are not saying that Pete and John draft/personnel decisions still have "magic" are you?

That article merely reflected that the foundation of our scouting excellence is still intact...the loss of McGlouhan was surely felt. The 2021 draft was covid impacted...many players were under-scouted making "scouting business as usual" non-existing. The 2021 draft was murky and the impact of covid (beginning in 2020) perhaps made it easier to make a high draft capital trade for Adams a little more tempting to "pull the trigger on". With covid also impacting cap-space loss ...we accepted a 'cheaper" draft class.

The sapping of our roster's talent base is heavily a result of the NFL's business pursuit to get its desired tv contracts. "Automatic wins/losses are frowned upon by business execs swayed by television revenue" so dynasties and perennial losers are both bad for tv ratings. Rules have been altered to change the NFL to a more exciting "Offense Heavy" brand...at the expense of offense smothering defenses. The draft and waiver orders try to "force" team equity making the typical team "norm" a cyclic pattern of losing/winning seasons.

Some teams defy this heavy handedness but untimely injuries and bad evaluations of free agents really hurt teams who try to win "all the time". Perhaps a modern fan base is more willing to have a teams winning chemistry risked away by getting rid of its GM/HC...even its elite QB. Loyalty isn't a result of being stuck with only the home teams games to view. A Seattle fan from the east coast can switch their allegiance back to Miami/New England/Philadelphia and not miss a game.

[trents]

tarlhawk, I appreciate your in depth analysis whenever you post but you and I would disagree significantly on the quality of draft and trade decisions made by the Seahawk leadership since the superbowl years. To me, Seahawk leadership made desperate short-term personnel decisions that amounted to bandaids rather than acting on a long term plan to address foundational needs such as the OL.

[NorthHawk]

They seemed to change philosophies on building a team. Like you said they went from drafting and developing to finding bandaids
for problem areas. I think it might also be a little bit of hubris from the early years and the constant trading down for bigger gambles
seems to support that. The problem is there are too many misses for every hit. These last 2 drafts might be better, but we can't ignore
5 or 6 years of largely bad selections - with a few exceptions. When was the last time we drafted a player beyond the 3rd round that
turned out to be a very good player not counting the punter? I think it must have been in the Sherman/Chancellor drafts.

[RiverDog]

They seemed to change philosophies on building a team. Like you said they went from drafting and developing to finding bandaids
for problem areas. I think it might also be a little bit of hubris from the early years and the constant trading down for bigger gambles
seems to support that. The problem is there are too many misses for every hit. These last 2 drafts might be better, but we can't ignore
5 or 6 years of largely bad selections - with a few exceptions. When was the last time we drafted a player beyond the 3rd round that
turned out to be a very good player not counting the punter? I think it must have been in the Sherman/Chancellor drafts.

Chris Carson.

[Old but Slow]

Northhawk, I took a look at a couple of games to see Jaxson Kirkland, the UW left tackle. Against Oregon St he dominated. Against Michigan who have 2 defensive ends that will go in the first few picks this draft (Hutchinson will go 1st or 2d probably, and Ojabo should be top 10) he played very well although both DE's got a sack against him. I would be surprised if he makes it past the 2d round. Rob Staton has Lucas at 15th pick in the first round, by the way.

Kirkland is long and athletic. He regularly gets into the second level of the defense and seems very alert to find targets. He is 295# and handles it well, rarely getting pushed back. Ojabo got him with a beautiful inside spin, and Hutchinson just plain beat him on his sack. He handled both of them most of the time.

I like him.

[NorthHawk]

Northhawk, I took a look at a couple of games to see Jaxson Kirkland, the UW left tackle. Against Oregon St he dominated. Against Michigan who have 2 defensive ends that will go in the first few picks this draft (Hutchinson will go 1st or 2d probably, and Ojabo should be top 10) he played very well although both DE's got a sack against him. I would be surprised if he makes it past the 2d round. Rob Staton has Lucas at 15th pick in the first round, by the way.

Kirkland is long and athletic. He regularly gets into the second level of the defense and seems very alert to find targets. He is 295# and handles it well, rarely getting pushed back. Ojabo got him with a beautiful inside spin, and Hutchinson just plain beat him on his sack. He handled both of them most of the time.

I like him.

Cool. Thanks for the updates. The DL are often ahead of the OL at this stage except for some real studs.
Does Kirkland look like an NFL Left Tackle or is he better suited for RT? He has good size and if he can put on 10lbs and keep his athleticism he might be worth considering.
I guess it depends of if his frame is maxed out.

It's interesting that Staton has Lucas rated as a mid 1st round talent. As he was a RT, it's always a gamble to move them to LT unless he sees him to be like Conklin and
dominate in the run game.

[trents]

They seemed to change philosophies on building a team. Like you said they went from drafting and developing to finding bandaids
for problem areas. I think it might also be a little bit of hubris from the early years and the constant trading down for bigger gambles
seems to support that. The problem is there are too many misses for every hit. These last 2 drafts might be better, but we can't ignore
5 or 6 years of largely bad selections - with a few exceptions. When was the last time we drafted a player beyond the 3rd round that
turned out to be a very good player not counting the punter? I think it must have been in the Sherman/Chancellor drafts.

Well said! I believe you nailed it.

[TriCitySam]

From what I've read over the years several things are really stand out:

1) Only 30% of picks below #15 are offered a 2nd contract by their team. (a reason the Rams prefer veterans)
2) Their is wide discrepancy in teams ranking/valuation on players below #15
3) Most say from #15 to #64 the rankings are all really pretty close, that in a given draft only the top 10-15 standout above the rest.
4) EVERY team swings and misses.
5) It's really easy to look in the rear view mirror and say, "they screwed up, should have taken this guy".

As with many of the Seahawks, sometimes luck (bad luck) plays a huge part in out the draft turns out. You cannot predict injuries. Certainly from 2021 Chubb looks like the best pick, but it wasn't that way in 2018. Don't get me wrong, Penney hasn't worked out for Seattle, but he had credentials: He was big, strong, fast, led the FBS in yard (2,027), was a physical punishing runner and didn't have a history of injuries, was ranked ahead of Chubb (NFL.com). At the time, most of us thought he looked pretty good as a RB candidate, if he'd have stayed healthy, who knows. The point is not to debate Chubb vs Penney, but simply that in a draft opinions and uncontrollable factors (injuries) play a big part. It's not Schneider's fault that McDowell can't ride an ATV.

I know PC and JS are technically those "at fault" for bad drafts, but I agree with the point about our scouts. I'm quite sure JS and PC are making their decisions based upon information from their scouting department. So it raises the question of how good is the information? Do they need to strengthen that?

[trents]

From what I've read over the years several things are really stand out:

1) Only 30% of picks below #15 are offered a 2nd contract by their team. (a reason the Rams prefer veterans)
2) Their is wide discrepancy in teams ranking/valuation on players below #15
3) Most say from #15 to #64 the rankings are all really pretty close, that in a given draft only the top 10-15 standout above the rest.
4) EVERY team swings and misses.
5) It's really easy to look in the rear view mirror and say, "they screwed up, should have taken this guy".

As with many of the Seahawks, sometimes luck (bad luck) plays a huge part in out the draft turns out. You cannot predict injuries. Certainly from 2021 Chubb looks like the best pick, but it wasn't that way in 2018. Don't get me wrong, Penney hasn't worked out for Seattle, but he had credentials: He was big, strong, fast, led the FBS in yard (2,027), was a physical punishing runner and didn't have a history of injuries, was ranked ahead of Chubb (NFL.com). At the time, most of us thought he looked pretty good as a RB candidate, if he'd have stayed healthy, who knows. The point is not to debate Chubb vs Penney, but simply that in a draft opinions and uncontrollable factors (injuries) play a big part. It's not Schneider's fault that McDowell can't ride an ATV.

I know PC and JS are technically those "at fault" for bad drafts, but I agree with the point about our scouts. I'm quite sure JS and PC are making their decisions based upon information from their scouting department. So it raises the question of how good is the information? Do they need to strengthen that?

No one will disagree with you in principle about these things. But even taking into account all these variables, over 7 years time there shouldn't be so many swings and misses. On the other hand, if Penny stays healthy and keeps on putting up big numbers it may go along way toward softening our criticism.

[NorthHawk]

For me, it’s significant that we passed on really good college players for higher risk players or passed by positions of need
by trading down for players that didn’t pan out. Sure it’s easier to see in hindsight but there was a 5-6 year period
when many of the selections were a real mystery and it set the trend of towards talent dilution on this team.

[Hawktawk]

To me it’s a crapshoot no matter how hard you try. As has been said injuries are the biggest wildcard . Penney had never had injuries at any level . I like Blair but he can’t stay on the field. The young corner that got hurt . The second year rusher Taylor is a find.

Some of the vets are balling too. For all the upheaval and complaints the team is a few points from being 7-6,8-5,. Russ was inconsistent early before the injury . Geno was in every game he appeared in but unfortunately lost 2 of 3 by a total of 6 points . That’s after a 3 point loss to the Titans when both Russ and the defense folded .

Then Russ dropped 3 games playing hurt , all were close late . Last 2 games we ran the ball and Russ was on and the team looked fine. We will get another big test Sunday . But I guess I can’t say the Hawks haven’t tried to improve , tried to protect Russ . We have some good players . We have 2 wideouts any Qb would love although Russ is having trouble connecting with one of them . If Penney goes for 350 or 400 to finish the year that makes PC look better although coaches get no sympathy for injuries . As I see it PC was the golden bee bee hitting home run after home run for years . It’s not been nearly as good lately and the Adams debacle is literally grounds for dismissal but it hasn’t been all bad .

[RiverDog]

My problem hasn't been so much who we've been drafting, it's been that we're not factoring in the position that they play.

Eskridge is a prime example. It's very difficult to argue that he was the best player available as he was rated a low 2nd round/high first round player and we took him with the #57 overall, about where he was expected to go, maybe even a little higher. Creed Humphrey, the player many of us were expecting us to take, was a solid 2nd round selection, but he came with the added value of being a center, a 3 down position that we happened to need vs. a WR where the very best Eskridge could hope to achieve would be 3rd on the depth chart or a situational player.

This was another instance of PC/JS not assigning a high enough priority to the offensive line, a problem they've had for the past 4 drafts.

I don't blame PC/JS for the injuries to players like Penny and McDowell. It's the fact that we've done things like going into the draft with just 3 picks then misallocate those picks we do have to positions that we do not have a need and is not justified on a BPA basis.

[NorthHawk]

Carson and Penny have been injured every year, yet they bypassed great RBs for others that weren’t
as big a need or ability. This from a team that absolutely requires a solid run game for the Offense
to function at a high level. How many years does it take before they get the picture that RB
reliability is important?

[Old but Slow]

When looking at players, whether prospective picks or current pros, I like to evaluate the player by asking "how many of the 32 teams would this guy start or play for". For example I would suggest that Bobby Wags would start for every team, so he's a 32. Chris Carson might be a 10. For college players it would be how many teams could he make. Its crude, but it helps my perspective when I am perceiving the prospective potential of the player I am....never mind.

I started to do that kind of thing with the Seahawks, but got depressed and quit.

[RiverDog]

When looking at players, whether prospective picks or current pros, I like to evaluate the player by asking "how many of the 32 teams would this guy start or play for". For example I would suggest that Bobby Wags would start for every team, so he's a 32. Chris Carson might be a 10. For college players it would be how many teams could he make. Its crude, but it helps my perspective when I am perceiving the prospective potential of the player I am....never mind.

I started to do that kind of thing with the Seahawks, but got depressed and quit.

Classic ObS!

[obiken]

When looking at players, whether prospective picks or current pros, I like to evaluate the player by asking "how many of the 32 teams would this guy start or play for". For example I would suggest that Bobby Wags would start for every team, so he's a 32. Chris Carson might be a 10. For college players it would be how many teams could he make. Its crude, but it helps my perspective when I am perceiving the prospective potential of the player I am....never mind.

I started to do that kind of thing with the Seahawks, but got depressed and quit.

Oh thats great guy!!

[tarlhawk]

Lets take a look from 2010 when Pete and John completed their first draft...it was the first and last draft we were able to select two first rounders in the top 15 picks...T Russel Okung (a left tackle stalwart) and FS Earl Thomas (key to the start of our legion of boom) WR Golden Tate (2nd Rd) CB Walter Thurman (4th) and SS Kam Chancellor (5th)

2011 brought us Tom Cable as O-line coach and his zone-blocking schemes. Our draft that year brought us 4 more Defensive pieces. OLB KJ Wright (4th) LCB Richard Sherman (5th) RCB Byron Maxwell (6th) and LB Malcom Smith (7th)...all key pieces in dismantling of Broncos in 2013 SB. Our 1rst rounder that year was O-line T James Carpenter out of Alabama a RT bookend for Okung. A key non-drafted signing was CB Brandon Browner (after 4 yrs of playing in Canada). 2011 was first year of Legion of Boom

2012 saw more dedication to the Defense... DE Bruce Irvin (1rst) MLB Bobby Wagner (2nd) CB Jeremy Lane (6th) while offense got QB Russel Wilson (3rd) and RB Robert Turbin (4th). JR Sweezy was drafted as a 7th Rd DT but Tom Cable converted him to the O-Line as a guard.

2013 our Super Bowl year saw mixed review of no 1rst Rd...RB Christian Michael (2nd) and DT Jordan Hill (3rd)...and TE Luke Willson (5th). Our LB corps now featured Irvin (2nd yr) Wagner (1 yr exp) and KJ (2nd yr)

2014 our last SB appearance gave us a draft with offense first WR Paul Richardson (2nd) and O-line T Justin Britt (2nd)...and two for the Defense LB Cassius Marsh (4th) and LB Kevin Pierre-Lewis (also a 4th) ...At this time our O-line was LT Okung (4th yr) LG Carpenter (3rd yr) C Max Unger (5th yr) RG JR Sweezy (2nd yr) and our rookie RT Justin Britt. Our two bookend DE's Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril arrive...and Maxwell joins LOB.

2015 only landed us three notable players DE Frank Clark (2nd) WR Tyler Lockett (traded up into the 3rd) and an O-Line G Mark Glowinski (4th). Tyler Lockett starts easing out of Jermaine Kearse. RB Thomas Rawls bursts onto the scene as an undrafted rookie and TE Jimmy Grahm arrives removing our all-pro C Max Unger. Our O-Line now looks like LT (Okung) LG (Britt) C (Patrick Lewis) RG (Sweezy) and RT (Garry Gilliam). The LOB had a failed attempt of being joined by Free Agent (Cary Williams) to replace Maxwell.

2016 Not a bad draft year. Defense gained DT Jarran Reed (2nd) and DT Quinton Jefferson (5th) while Offense gained G Germain Ifedi (1rst) and G Reese Odhiambo (3rd) C Joey Hunt (6th)...two highly touted RB CJ Procise (3rd) and Alex Collins (5th) with a TE Nick Vannett (3rd) thrown in.

2017 was another deep but mixed bag since our 1rst pick DT Malik McDowell (2nd Rd) never played (ATV accident) but our Offense gained two 7th Rd bargains ...a RB Chris Carson and a WR David Moore. Failed attempts at Safety : Lano Hill (3rd)/Tedrick Thompson (4th)/Michael Tyson (6th)...but CB Shaquille Griffen (2nd) got 1 yr with LOB. Our O-Line gained C Ethan Pocic (2nd) and now looked like LT Duane Brown LG Luke Joeckel C Justin Britt RG Oday Aboushi and RT Germain Ifedi.

2018 Switched Offensive Coordinator to Brian Schottenheimer. Our draft was one of our deeper ones. Our Offense gained RB Rashaad Penny (1rst) TE Will Dissly (4th) and for the O-Line T Jamarco Jones (5th). Our existing O-Line *now under O-Line Coach Mike Solari* looked like LT Duane Brown LG JR Sweezy C Justin Britt RG DJ Fluker RT Germain Ifedi with T George Fant as a swing tackle. Defensively our draft gave us DT Rasheem Green (3rd) OLB Shaqueem Griffen (5th) S Tre Flowers (5th) and DE Jacob Martin (6th) We moved up into the 5th Rd in a trade with the Broncos to grab P Michael Dickson for our Special teams. Our secondary looked like this : LCB Shaq Griffen (1 yr exp) RCB Tre Flowers (Converted rookie S) SS Bradley McDougald (7 Yrs exp) and FS Tedrick Thompson (1 yr exp...played 10 games). This replaced our Legion of Boom.

2019 Deep draft for Special teams : B/U LB Cody Barton (3rd) LB Ben Burr-Kirven (5th) RB Travis Homer (6th) and WR John Ursua (7th). Our Defense gained LJ Collier (1rst) S Marquise Blair (2nd) and Ugo Amadi (4th)...while the big p/u on Offense was WR DK Metcalf (traded up into 2nd to get). G Phil Haynes (4th) was added for the O-line. Only real change to O-Line was LG Mike Iuputti (9 yrs exp FA) replacing JR Sweezey.

2020 One of our best drafts : Special Teams added a kick returner RB DJ Dallas and a punt returner WR Freddie Swain (6th). Defense added LB Jordyn Brooks (1rst Rd) DE Darrel Taylor (2nd *traded up to get) and DE Alton Robinson (5th). Drafted Red Zone TE Colby Parkinson (4th) and for the O-line G Damien Lewis (3rd)

2021 Our most limited draft (only three selections) but perhaps a hit on each ...WR Dee Eskridge (2nd) his development severely hamped by a hard concussion...but like Lockett as a rookie he could instantly jumpstart our returns in either Kick or punt returns. CB Tre Brown showed he could handle a starting role at LCB till his recent injury knocked him out. Our last pick T Stone Forsythe is a mountain of a man for O-Line Coach Mike Solari to work with.

2022 No first Rd. Picks but our 2nd /3rd /(2) 4th / 5th/ and 7th. Only six picks but each should be in the top 10 of each round based on our current record...which hasn't been the case for a long long time.

[tarlhawk]

This draft in 2022 will be one of our more important drafts depending on who we settle new contracts with and by keeping Russell Wilson at home.

[TriCitySam]

I don’t see Penny or McDowell as busts....bad luck certainly, but thru no fault of JS or PC. In fact we see the talent in both. Despite his horrific injury McDowell, essentially a rookie, is starting for the Browns. Many howled about Taylor as well, but we see the talent. Eskridge is a rookie he may light the league up in a year or 2. My biggest complaint is our inability to develop an OL.

[tarlhawk]

I don’t see Penny or McDowell as busts....bad luck certainly, but thru no fault of JS or PC. In fact we see the talent in both. Despite his horrific injury McDowell, essentially a rookie, is starting for the Browns. Many howled about Taylor as well, but we see the talent. Eskridge is a rookie he may light the league up in a year or 2. My biggest complaint is our inability to develop an OL.

Agreed. The inability to develop O-Line picks is still "on Hold" Mike Solari has been dealing with injuries for the players drafted since his arrival as O-Line Coach in 2018. *T/G Jamarco Jones (5th Rd-2018) and Phil Haynes (4th Rd-2019)* Damien Lewis is dealing with a switch to LG...so maybe he even becomes a possibility playing C utilizing knowledge gained by having played both guard positions in his young career??

[NorthHawk]

Every team is dealing with injuries. We're no exceptions. KC replaced almost the entire OL this off season and they are doing well.
The Titans have lost a couple of starters and they are succeeding. We don't have the quality depth along the OL that other teams
have and we never have under Pete.

[trents]

Every team is dealing with injuries. We're no exceptions. KC replaced almost the entire OL this off season and they are doing well.
The Titans have lost a couple of starters and they are succeeding. We don't have the quality depth along the OL that other teams
have and we never have under Pete.

Agreed. Just hasn't been a priority with Pete and John.

[Hawktawk]

I’ll play devils advocate a little as the season has unfolded . The line did great yesterday . There were 3 sacks of Russ that were all probably 5 seconds plus holding the ball coverage sacks . The secondary wasn’t bad with injuries and Covid and demonstrated depth considering the opponent . Penney who had been a bust and China doll finally got healthy vs the 9ers and is showing why he went ahead of Chubb the last 3. Even against the great Ram defense he almosed housed it on his first carry of the game . He had some cramps but stayed healthy . Diggs is filthy . Dk as well . Lock is the best off schedule receiver ever . Brooks is a stud . Everett is a stud . Swain is good enough . Eskridge is going to be good . The injured corner Tre Brown who got hurt is very good . Lots of guys in the front 7 are playing well . Dunlap had 3 sacks last night . Special teams other than kicker have been excellent which demonstrates roster depth . There are other examples including Russ himself . Dee Jay looked like a legitimate running back last night .

It’s not a roster issue . If they are gonna fire PC it needs to be over the X and Os . This isn’t a bad roster .

[NorthHawk]

I see a different Penny than you. He’s certainly improved, but he nowhere near the RB that Chubb is.
A lot of players suddenly get it together in their contract year and Penny might be one of them, on the other hand
he may have just turned the corner on his career. Time will tell.
What was puzzling was we had a few good run plays then seemed to forget about them.
The Defense did play well, and that usually happens when we get a pass rush going. That’s what our Defense
is designed to be, pressure from the front four and ball hawking DB’s. It’s also a part of why Adams isn’t such
a good fit as his ball skills aren’t very good.

The OL isn’t that good and it’s compounded by Russ trying to extend plays but they have trouble with
consistency on the ground which necessitated the Jumbo pkg for added help. As in all sports, strength
up the middle is key to winning and we need an upgrade at Center for the OL to improve.

[trents]

With some of the head scratching in game decisions Pete not infrequently makes you have to wonder if the current group of players would have more success under different leadership doing a better job of game management.

[Hawktawk]

I see a different Penny than you. He’s certainly improved, but he nowhere near the RB that Chubb is.
A lot of players suddenly get it together in their contract year and Penny might be one of them, on the other hand
he may have just turned the corner on his career. Time will tell.
What was puzzling was we had a few good run plays then seemed to forget about them.
The Defense did play well, and that usually happens when we get a pass rush going. That’s what our Defense
is designed to be, pressure from the front four and ball hawking DB’s. It’s also a part of why Adams isn’t such
a good fit as his ball skills aren’t very good.

The OL isn’t that good and it’s compounded by Russ trying to extend plays but they have trouble with
consistency on the ground which necessitated the Jumbo pkg for added help. As in all sports, strength
up the middle is key to winning and we need an upgrade at Center for the OL to improve.

Of course Im not saying Penney is better than Chubb. Hes been out 2 years. I'm saying the athleticism and pure speed in that big of a back make me understand why PC took him. Penney has more speed than Chubb i think and hes only started 3 games in his career. He was a great tackle from housing it Tuesday. Really looking forward to seeing more of him. Between he and Dallas they had 90 yards rushing. Penney was gashing them early then cramped up and wasnt quite the same. Probabakly needs to get in game shape.

And here's something else that totally wrong with our offense. Russ is running the read option a bunch, probably the hand taking snaps still. The problem is the QB has to keep the defense honest by keeping it and running in a game like that. PFF gave him an awful grade and said he "refused to run on the read option". I went back and rewound it and sure enough on the read the defense keyed only on the back and ignored Russ completely. The Rams didn't even spy on him but rushed 4 and dropped 7 into coverage against 5 targets which is why the coverage was so good. They dared Russ to run on pass plays, left him wide open lanes but he bounced around the pocket for 5 and 6 seconds and took sacks. The Russell Wilson I remember would have had 100 rushing yards and forced them to spy on him taking someone out of coverage and defending the run. There aren't the dynamic plays much anymore. This guy isn't worth 35 million anymore.

[NorthHawk]

I think that if we had run the Offense Waldron probably wanted to run - more like the McVey Offense - we would see a more enthusiastic Russell Wilson and a better QB.
I just get the feeling his heart isn't into it. He tries hard, but if a player isn't all in, then he can't really succeed or at least play to the level he's capable of.
Add in an OL that is inconsistent on run plays and Wilson holding onto the ball too long on pass plays and we end up with what we have today.