Week #3 - Vikings

[Agent 86]

By Michael-Shawn Dugar 7h ago 4

The Seahawks generally enter every game believing in a fundamental idea: the opponent will be much easier to defeat if its run game is neutralized and the pass game is forced to carry it to victory. There are exceptions when facing a pass-heavy club like the Kansas City Chiefs or the 2020 Buffalo Bills, but by and large Seattle believes in run defense as the first step toward success.

There’s no question that will be Seattle’s mission Sunday afternoon against the Minnesota Vikings.

“The whole aspect for us, we need to stop the run first and make teams beat you the other way,” safety Quandre Diggs said Thursday.

The real question is, will that be enough?

The thinking behind Seattle’s philosophy is rooted in the idea that passing the ball over and over is inherently more dangerous than running the ball over and over. Therefore, if a team is forced to frequently pass the ball, Seattle can unleash its pass rushers, including blitz specialist Jamal Adams, and force the quarterback into mistakes. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll sees turnover margin as a strong predictor of wins and losses.

Looking specifically at the Vikings, Seattle’s goal will be to stop Dalvin Cook, who last season was 10th among qualifying running backs in Expected Points Added per rush and fifth in total rushing EPA, according to TruMedia. Cook is off to a far less efficient start to the 2021 season. However, he is third at his position in rushing yards and is still considered the engine that makes Minnesota’s offense go because Vikings coach Mike Zimmer, like Carroll, is a defensive-minded guy who favors the run game. For the Seahawks, bottling up Cook means forcing Minnesota to beat them with Kirk Cousins’ arm, a concept Seattle feels works in its favor.

“We have to know when they’re going to give him the ball and understand that he’s the guy that gets everything going,” linebacker Bobby Wagner said. “Once they establish that run game, it opens up their playbook. Once we stop that, we can stop a big portion of their playbook.”

But will that lead to a win on Sunday?

For the sake of this discussion, let’s assume the Seahawks do what they’ve done in a majority of their games against inferior opponents in the last 12 months: take an early lead by starting hot on offense and shutting down the opponent’s offensive strength. In this game, that would mean shutting down Cook and placing the onus on Cousins to lead a second-half comeback, something he and Zimmer have never achieved against the Seahawks.

Cousins is at best an average quarterback, but his weapons are far from pedestrian. Justin Jefferson last year in his rookie season ranked eighth among receivers in yards per reception, third in receiving yards and second in yards per route run in what was a Pro Bowl campaign. Adam Thielen, one of the best route runners in the league, finished third at his position in touchdown receptions and is currently tied for the league lead through two weeks of the 2021 season. Minnesota this season has an emerging No. 3 receiver in K.J. Osborn, who has snagged 12 of his 15 targets for 167 yards, good for 15th league-wide among receivers. Even though the Vikings haven’t won a game yet, there’s a reason they rank 12th in EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com.

Seattle held Jefferson in check last season, but Thielen scored two red-zone touchdowns against Seattle’s No. 1 cornerback, who is no longer on the team. Seattle’s No. 2 cornerback from that game is also gone. D.J. Reed and Tre Flowers, Seattle’s projected starting corners this week, are in for a tough battle, just seven days after dueling with Tennessee’s dynamic duo of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, who hit Seattle’s defense for 128 yards on six catches. Brown had just 43 yards on three catches, but he also had three drops. Reed played well against the Titans, though he and Flowers certainly enter this matchup as the underdogs. If the Vikings need to mount a comeback, they have the firepower to do it against this version of Seattle’s defense, which ranks 22nd in EPA per play.

Also keep in mind the Titans didn’t really have trouble offensively against Seattle. After punting on its first possession, Tennessee didn’t punt again until overtime. All of the Titans’ possessions in between ended in Seattle territory save for the strip-sack at their own 18-yard line. Moving the ball, even without the benefit of the run game in the first half, wasn’t a problem.

Another concern this week for Seattle — specifically if the offense starts hot and cools down in the second half, as it has the past two games — could be Minnesota eating up the Seahawks’ soft zone coverage to get back in the game. Instead of its traditional single-high safety look, Seattle when nursing a lead uses a split-safety look, asks its underneath defenders to take deeper drops and force the defense to throw it short and bleed clock. If this sounds familiar, that’s because that’s the defense Seattle played when Tennessee mounted its game-tying drive in the fourth quarter Sunday, the same defense that has turned a few would-be blowouts into one-possession wins in recent years.

“Obviously you don’t want to give up points in that situation,” defensive passing game coordinator Andre Curtis said. “You want to use the clock against the team. What you don’t want to do is give up anything quick and fast. We want to make them slowly, methodically, move the ball and then hopefully at some point in time when people go 12, 13 plays, you get off on a third down, you get a good pass rush or pass breakup and you get off the field.”

Cousins is equipped to execute this type of offense because he favors check-down passes, which are often available against Seattle’s prevent coverage. Once his team gets into scoring territory, he has two premier passing targets and a top-five running back to lean on. A one-dimensional Vikings offense may still be dangerous enough to upset the current Seahawks defense.

To be clear, the onus is not solely on the defense to put games away. Seattle’s offense has been bad in the second halves of games this season, but it has produced top-10 units the past three years and is currently one of the best units in the league; Seattle’s defense hasn’t had a top-10 season since 2015. The offense gets the benefit of the doubt in this matchup.

Both sides need to put together a complete game, but the defense has the tougher task this week. Stopping Cook is difficult, but doable. Ditto for thwarting Minnesota’s passing game. Stopping both units for an entire game is what will likely determine whether Seattle bounces back with a win or falls into a dangerous 1-2 hole.

I expect a big game from …
Justin Jefferson. It’s possible for Seattle to contain one of Minnesota’s talented wideouts but it’s hard to envision both Jefferson and Thielen having a mediocre day. It is matchups like this that made the cornerback position such a hot topic in Seattle throughout the offseason. The league is littered with dynamic receiving tandems and having outside cornerbacks who can consistently deal with that is required for any team with championship aspirations. Jefferson last year had a quiet night against the Seahawks but it feels unlikely he repeats that effort on Sunday.

The X factor will be …
Minnesota cornerback Patrick Peterson. I wrote about his battles with Seattle receiver DK Metcalf ahead of their Week 11 matchup last season when Peterson was with the Cardinals. Peterson to that point had done a great job against Metcalf, and his numbers in that Week 11 matchup were also impressive: He allowed just two catches for 21 yards (he was also flagged for pass interference against Metcalf and gave up a bomb that was negated by a questionable holding penalty on Seattle’s center).

“I love going up against Pat Pete,” Metcalf said with a smile, noting that he enjoys matchups against bigger corners because “it changes the game for me a little bit.” Peterson is among a handful of defenders I’ve seen do a great job guarding Metcalf, and any team with a cornerback that can contain Metcalf on his own has a chance to beat the Seahawks. When Metcalf wins those matchups … well, Minnesota saw last year in Week 5 just how problematic that can be.

The Seahawks win if …
Right tackle Jamarco Jones wins his battles with defensive end Danielle Hunter. The Seahawks’ starting right tackle, Brandon Shell, didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday because of an ankle injury and it’s hard to envision Shell playing Sunday without practicing during the week (Seattle travels on Friday, so that practice is primarily a walk-through). As I noted earlier this week, Hunter often rushes against the opposing team’s right tackle, and that figures to be Jones, who will be making only his second career start at that position. Minnesota’s pass rush is a bit of a one-man operation outside of blitzes so if Seattle adequately handles that one man, Russell Wilson should have more than enough time to exploit Minnesota’s secondary all afternoon.

The Vikings win if …
Seattle’s pass rush is as poor as it was against Tennessee. Because of how bad the Titans’ front line looked in Week 1, the Seahawks were expected to live in Ryan Tannehill’s face. Instead, Tennessee’s offensive line was responsible for just one sack, produced by Seattle defensive tackle Al Woods in a one-on-one matchup with the center. If Seattle edge rushers Benson Mayowa, Carlos Dunlap, Darrell Taylor, Alton Robinson and Rasheem Green don’t show up against Minnesota, Cousins and Cook will have no problem scoring at will. And if this game becomes a shootout, Minnesota has more than a fighting chance at home.

Game prediction
Seattle 32, Minnesota 29

Seattle is the better team on paper and has the edge at the most important position. Wilson ends up making one or two more plays than Cousins and the Seahawks snag a second straight win on the road.

[obiken]

I think we beat the Vikes, IF not we are in trouble. Cousins is tailor made for our defense, and their Defense is nothing to write home about.

[RiverDog]

This fact really stuck out like a sore thumb and highlights just what our problems have been and why we're no longer considered a perennial SB contender:

Seattle’s defense hasn’t had a top-10 season since 2015.

That was a good preview of the game and I agree that on paper, we should be the favorites in this game despite it being played on the road. But after last week's disastrous 2nd half and overtime stanza, I'd rate us as a slight underdog.

I'm going with a similar score but with us being on the short end: Vikings 31, Hawks 30.

[obiken]

River I just dont see us loosing to the Vikes but who knows, stranger things have happened.

[RiverDog]

River I just dont see us loosing to the Vikes but who knows, stranger things have happened.

The Vikings have lost two games by a grand total of 4 points. Last Sunday, they took the Cards, who had just gotten through trashing the same team that embarrassed us last weekend, to the absolute limit, losing by the narrowest of margins. With 4 seconds left, the ghost of Blair Walsh missed an extra point range 37 yard FG that would have won the game. They are better than their 0-2 record indicates.

[Vegaseahawk]

River I just dont see us loosing to the Vikes but who knows, stranger things have happened.

Yeah, like last weeks epic collapse.

[curmudgeon]

I think Cousins finally gets off the schneid…….

[NorthHawk]

Dalvin Cook is dinged up but will probably play, so we have to stop him and we have to get a pass rush going.
We didn't have a consistent rush all game even though we had a couple of sacks. We can't let Cousins have
the same time we gave Tannehill.
On Offense we have to show we can grind out drives. We really haven't had that for a few years on a
consistent game to game basis.

[RiverDog]

After our loss last week and given the fact that all 3 of our divisional opponents are undefeated, this game holds a little more importance than your garden variety Week 3 contest of what is now a 17 game regular season. We don't want to fall 2 games off the pace. And unlike our first two games, this is a conference game and could be a factor in determining playoff seeding.

Some interesting statistical tidbits. After 2 games, Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson are in nearly a dead heat. They both have an identical 62.7 QBR, both average 298 yards/game, Russell's completing 74% of his passes and Cousins 72%, Russell has 6 TD's while Cousins has 5, and neither one of them has thrown an interception. Both teams have leaky D's, the Hawks ranked 30th in total yards, the Vikings 28th. The Hawks are scoring 29 ppg, the Vikings 28.5.

[NorthHawk]

Playoffs? After last week? (Queue Jim Mora)
We are really not that good of a team so far even though we beat the Colts.
There's still hope for a change, but it has to happen soon for us to keep in the race.

[RiverDog]

Playoffs? After last week? (Queue Jim Mora)
We are really not that good of a team so far even though we beat the Colts.
There's still hope for a change, but it has to happen soon for us to keep in the race.

Yeah, the Colts are shaping up to be one of the worst teams in the league, taking a little shine off that convincing win.

I suspect that you'll see us at least try to establish more of a running game today. Last week in the 2nd half/OT, we ran twice on a 3 down set once, and just happened to get one of our two first downs in the final 27 minutes of football. That has to have Pete fuming, so look for a lot of Chris Carson, at least until they prove that they can stop him.

I heard that Metcalf has sworn not to let DB's get inside his head again. I hope he's good at holding to New Year's resolutions.

Lockett has had two monster games. He's currently 2nd in the league in yards per game and tied for first with 3 TD's even though he ranks 26th in number of targets.

Our opponents have a couple challenging contests against HOF QB's. The Niners play the Packers and the Rams vs. the Bucs. We should get a good feel for the strength of our opponents after today. The undefeated Cards have what would appear to be a gimme vs. the Jags.

[Agent 86]

Dalvin Cook is dinged up but will probably play, so we have to stop him and we have to get a pass rush going.
We didn't have a consistent rush all game even though we had a couple of sacks. We can't let Cousins have
the same time we gave Tannehill.
On Offense we have to show we can grind out drives. We really haven't had that for a few years on a
consistent game to game basis.

Cook is now being deemed "unlikely to play", so looks like it will be Alexander Mattison up next for the Vikings. He is a powerful back, and from what I have seen previously, is a good runner. So even though it's a break if Cook doesn't play, still got their hands full with Mattison.

[Hawktawk]

worried about the confidence of our team. No lead is secure after last sunday. Vikes are due. Worried this might be the year it all unravels. Dont ever pick em to lose but I dont feel good about this one.

[RiverDog]

Nice opening drive, 9 plays, 75 yards. 5 passes and 4 runs. Lots better than last week.

[Hawktawk]

Awful d. Get flowers out of there now

[c_hawkbob]

Problems still all on the offense? Just asking.

[RiverDog]

Problems still all on the offense? Just asking.

Who said all the problems were on offense? It wasn't me.

[Hawktawk]

At the end it was the offense . It was hot first half last week. I liked the stop . Get another

[RiverDog]

Lots different offensive look today. 14 runs minus a couple RW scrambles, 11 short and intermediate passes, no deep shots. Carson already has 11 touches. He had 13 in nearly 70 minutes of football last week.

[Hawktawk]

Got ugly all of a sudden . We could trail by 11 before we get the ball back . Why no underneath option on 3rd and 3

[Hawktawk]

Wow. Ugly

[c_hawkbob]

It was primarily the defense last week, it's all on the defense so far this week. Pete needs to accept some responsibility here.

[Hawktawk]

The last offensive drive wasted scoring position with a failure on 3rd and 3 with no apparent underneath route into a wide open middle off the field. Then Meyer missed. That sequence was brutal . It’s the first bad sequence today and it better be the last or we’re getting blown out of here . I predict it will be 28-17 before we see the ball again

[RiverDog]

It was primarily the defense last week, it's all on the defense so far this week. Pete needs to accept some responsibility here.

I'll put last week at 65/35 if you want to call that primarily. But yes, so far in this game, it's about 90% defense, with the other 10% on special teams (Meyer's missed FG).

We'll see how good each team's 2nd half adjustments go. Last week sucked.

[Aseahawkfan]

Looks like another long day where the defense gets run over by even a lame offense this week missing their best RB. Hopefully we can adjust to make this less of a pathetic showing.

[RiverDog]

The last offensive drive wasted scoring position with a failure on 3rd and 3 with no apparent underneath route into a wide open middle off the field. Then Meyer missed. That sequence was brutal . It’s the first bad sequence today and it better be the last or we’re getting blown out of here . I predict it will be 28-17 before we see the ball again

Yeah, the last drive was pretty curious. Two short passes to a tight end and a running back. Might as well just fall on the ball and not risk a turnover.

[Hawktawk]

Norton should be fired after the game . Start over

[c_hawkbob]

If this is what we can expect from our defense this year we'll be talking about draft positioning in a few weeks.

[Hawk Sista]

The Rams look legit against the SB champs, too. 1-2 might well be a disaster. I know the D is bad, but RW used to be so clutch.

[obiken]

Norton should be fired after the game . Start over

Agreed, but its not all Ken's fault! Pete has not drafted for the DL for years, the chickens are coming home to roost. Its not hard to imagine us being out of it after we lose to the Packers. I just don't see our defense improving and the other NFC West teams just keep winning.

[trents]

Eerily similar to last week's game. Little resistance on defense the whole game. Offensive collapse in the second half. We've seen this coming for several years now. Slow decline and now a headlong slide into the lower echelon of the NFL. Draft here we come. I also think there needs to be a change in team leadership before the Hawks can be expected to rise again. Pete and John have lost their magic.

[c_hawkbob]

No this was much worse than last week. This was the worst I've seen us play in years. Sure glad I didn't buy tickets to this one.

[Hawktawk]

If this is what we can expect from our defense this year we'll be talking about draft positioning in a few weeks.

Azz whoopin. All good things must come to an end . This looks like a 6 win team if that all of a sudden . Defense is dreadful and offense was inept in the second half . Russ is a shell of himself with the game on the line . Bad bad bad . We’re in deep doo doo. Cellar dwellers and looking the part

[obiken]

The Rams look legit against the SB champs, too. 1-2 might well be a disaster. I know the D is bad, but RW used to be so clutch.

Agreed HS, but its mostly on the defense. We looked bad against Tanny and Kurty, imagine how its going to look against Matty and AR!! Its not over but Sis, IF we dont get it turned around in a hurry, we could be buried at the bottom of the toughest Division in FB.

[obiken]

We'll know more in a month but yeah I agree with HT, the window is probably over. Bobby is getting old, Adams is a bust, and the rest are just beans, spuds, and duds. The clock is ticking on the end of an era, and it was probably on the wall along time ago.

[Hawktawk]

No this was much worse than last week. This was the worst I've seen us play in years. Sure glad I didn't buy tickets to this one.

Yeah I agree with this . Last week the Hawks were one play away from winning . This week the Vikings dominated them , manhandled them from midway through the second quarter. They are imploding . Russ is very mortal all of a sudden . It’s early and I want to be wrong but I feel like this historic run is coming to an end .

[Agent 86]

If this is what we can expect from our defense this year we'll be talking about draft positioning in a few weeks.

A reminder of what our draft looks like at the moment:

1st round - owned by Jets
2nd round - Seahawks
3rd round - Seahawks
4th round - Seahawks
4th round - own the Jets pick
5th round - Seahawks
6th round - owned by Jaguars (can Sidney Jones be any worse than Tre Flowers?)
7th round - Seahawks

[Hawktawk]

The Rams look legit against the SB champs, too. 1-2 might well be a disaster. I know the D is bad, but RW used to be so clutch.

Yea sis this here and it’s sad. That dude carried this franchise on his shoulders for a decade but about the last 8 games he’s not the same guy in crunch time .

[Rambo2014]

Not lookin good from a Hawks perch..

Sorry

Advice? Better cater to Nick Saban

See ya soon

[Aseahawkfan]

Sad.