Baseball To Resume in July...Maybe

[RiverDog]

I've wondered If the spike does not include increased hospitalizations and/or deaths (it doesn't') will a positive at a camp or under a bubble carry the same weight as it does now or especially 3 months ago? In other words, does having someone simply showing signs of possible illness any more significant then during a bad flu season? Lots of people die each year from the flu and we don't shut down, and as it is now, its not the 25-40 year olds, just like it's not now.

I saw a chart showing the bulk of the new positives to be 25-40 year olds, with the older generation, who is mostly isolating at a very high rate, less infected. Obviously, that's the same age group as the bulk of the players, too. Should 1 positive shut down a team venue? The media is foaming at the mouth for negative news and would all over the sports as they try to restart.

One player testing positive might not cause the entire team to shut down, but it wouldn't take very many. As North Hawk pointed out, it's not just the players, it's coaches, trainers, equipment managers, referees, and many, many others that are directly associated with a football team that under normal protocols, would not be able to maintain social distancing. You can't put them all in a bubble.

This probably isn't the place to engage in a debate over the coronavirus, but comparing it to the flu is preposterous. The flu has been around for a hundred years. COVID is about 6 months old. We have vaccines for the flu and we know how to treat it. Not so with COVID. The flu is seasonal, starts appearing in November and is done by the end of April. It's now the middle of June and COVID shows no signs of slowing down. After 3-5 days from infection with the flu, you're severely ill. With COVID, it can take up to 14 days before you start experiencing symptoms or you may not have any symptoms at all. COVID spikes overwhelm hospitals and intensive care units. You don't see victims of the flu being hauled out in refer vans and buried in mass graves. The worst flu season we ever had in the US killed 80,000 in a year. The coronavirus has killed 113,000 in about 5 months, and it's far from over.

Bottom line is that just a few players testing positive would a huge deal. Teams can be sued for knowingly putting their players and employees at risk if they don't take immediate action when the warning flags go up. The Philadelphia Phillies had 5 players and 3 staff members test positive and they shut down their spring training facilities indefinitely. If baseball can't start up safely, the odds of an NFL team doing so are slim.

https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/philadelp ... d=71348122

[RiverDog]

Some doctors in Europe are saying COVID is weakening in the sense that though there is a spike in cases in some places but it now seem to not make people nearly so sick.

I saw those reports, too, and if true, it's a cause for hope. But there's other experts, including the WHO, that say there isn't any scientific evidence of such weakening, so go figure.

I'm to the point at 69 years of age and in good general health where I'm willing to take my chances in order to resume normal life. Unfortunately, my wife is not on board with that yet.

I get into this argument with people that insist that it's their personal decision to wear a mask. This isn't like refusing to wear a seat belt or motorcycle helmet. You're the only one that's going to splatter their brains across the highway, not me and not the driver of the other car. But this coronavirus is so contagious and has such a variance in the degree of its symptoms that it's not just about your being willing to take your chances with your health, it's about you subjecting others that may not be blessed with your good health to the risks that you decided are worth taking.

My wife has two auto immune diseases, MS and rheumatoid arthritis, plus we're both 65 years old. If she contracts COVID, there's no telling how her body will react. And she's not alone in her susceptibility:

All over the world evidence has shown that those at highest risk of dying from the coronavirus are the elderly, particularly those who had pre-existing health conditions. Yet analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation suggests that four in 10 adults (more than 105 million Americans) could potentially develop a serious illness from the virus.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/20/a- ... ronavirus/

[trents]

I'm beginning to think that we're just kicking the can down the road with all our precautions, just dragging it out. And maybe that's got some value if it gives time for a vaccine to develop but if it is true that the virus is weakening then by the time we get a vaccine there may be no need for it.

[RiverDog]

I'm beginning to think that we're just kicking the can down the road with all our precautions, just dragging it out. And maybe that's got some value if it gives time for a vaccine to develop but if it is true that the virus is weakening then by the time we get a vaccine there may be no need for it.

You're looking at one opinion from one doctor at one hospital in one country. From all accounts, the doctor is experienced and very credible, but he's basing his opinion on how fast elderly people are recovering from COVID now vs. back in March. At this time, there is no scientific evidence to support this claim, to the contrary, we have evidence that the virus is as deadly now as ever as been as the world wide death rates are not declining as you would expect if the virus were dying out on its own.

Here's what a sampling of other doctors have said about the claim:

Dr. Oscar MacLean, of the University of Glasgow, said that making such claims (of the virus weakening) without scientific backing is dangerous. “Making these claims on the basis of anecdotal observations from swab tests is dangerous,” MacLean said.

Dr. Seema Yasmin, an epidemiologist from Stanford University, tweeted that the idea (that the virus was weakening) was “bulls***” without specifying further details as to why.

"In a situation where the numbers of severe cases are falling, there may be time to start observing people with less severe symptoms — giving the impression that the virus is changing," Martin Hibberd, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the Italian news site The Local.

According to Maria van Kerkhove, the technical lead at WHO, the coronavirus continues to infect people at the same rate as when the pandemic started, and the same proportion of people — about 20% — develop severe cases. "In terms of the transmissibility, that has not changed. In terms of the severity, that has not changed," she said during a press briefing on Monday.

I'm not saying that the report is false, but the vast majority of the medical community has concluded that the virus is as potent as ever and is unlikely to go away until one of two things happens: Enough people get infected, about 95%, that the virus no longer has a host, which is called herd immunity, or an effective vaccine is developed and distributed to the nearly 8 billion people that inhabit the planet. It would be very dangerous to assume that this virus will just go away on its own.

[trents]

But even so, the concept of herd immunity is a valid one. Are we just delaying that process, the thing that really needs to happen? And many are saying that we may not be able to develop and effective vaccine anyway.

And I believe more than just one doctor is saying we are seeing evidence of the virus weakening. There is so much conflicting information surrounding the COVID-19 experience that you just don't know what and who to believe.

[RiverDog]

But even so, the concept of herd immunity is a valid one. Are we just delaying that process, the thing that really needs to happen? And many are saying that we may not be able to develop and effective vaccine anyway.

Herd immunity isn't an option for COVID. The problem is that it takes such a high percentage, 95+% of the population, to become infected and develop antibodies before the virus can't find a host to survive in. COVID is so contagious that you'd have millions falling severely ill all at the same time, completely swamping hospitals.

Besides, there's this that just came out today:

A recently published Chinese study suggests that antibody levels in coronavirus patients may decline only months after a person has been infected. However, experts caution that it doesn't necessarily mean a person's immunity disappears that quickly.

The researchers found both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients' levels of antibodies fell sharply just two to three months after an infection.

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/heal ... 622976e529

It's entirely possible that a person could acquire COVID multiple times in a single year, in which case herd immunity would be completely worthless.

And I believe more than just one doctor is saying we are seeing evidence of the virus weakening. There is so much conflicting information surrounding the COVID-19 experience that you just don't know what and who to believe.

The doctor most often quoted is an Italian named Dr. Matteo Bassetti, the head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the Lombardy region of Italy. There are a couple others, all from Italian hospitals, that have piggy backed on that same claim, but epidemiologists outside Italy are skeptical. Even the National Health Council, which counsels Italy's government, has expressed doubts about this claim.

But I do agree with your last sentence. With nothing else to report on, there's literally thousands of stories out there, many from very credible, reliable sources that put out completely opposite and contradictory information. That's part of the problem: With so many experts and studies available you can find someone that agrees with you.

[jshawaii22]

RD, ever the voice of reason in a hurricane of questions.

[RiverDog]

RD, ever the voice of reason in a hurricane of questions.

Thanks, JS. I don't want to act like a know-it-all, but being retired and self isolated, there's not a lot to do besides read up on this coronavirus thing.

[jshawaii22]

and on that note, after reading a lot of direct posts by 30ishes about the lasting effect of the Covid on their own health, and how many were near death and how many continue to show the effect and multiple hospitalizations... well, I take back my comment about it being the same as the Flu, unless you go back to the early 1900's in America.

I'm with you -- I'm too old not to be very careful going forward. Looks like that trip to Vegas to throw down my annual wager on the Seahawks winning the SB just has to be put on hold again.

[RiverDog]

and on that note, after reading a lot of direct posts by 30ishes about the lasting effect of the Covid on their own health, and how many were near death and how many continue to show the effect and multiple hospitalizations... well, I take back my comment about it being the same as the Flu, unless you go back to the early 1900's in America.

I'm with you -- I'm too old not to be very careful going forward. Looks like that trip to Vegas to throw down my annual wager on the Seahawks winning the SB just has to be put on hold again.

My best friend, an 82 year old retired chemist with a PhD and one of the smartest men I know, insists on comparing COVID to the Bubonic Plague, the Spanish Flu, and other pandemics that occurred 100+ years ago and regards COVID as "small potatoes" in comparison. I keep trying to tell him that comparing a contemporary pandemic with the ones previous societies had to endure is completely irrelevant to the questions pertaining to our actions in this crisis, but he continues to disagree. It's very frustrating, and the two of us have decided to table the subject.

[jshawaii22]

That's sure one of the problems we're dealing with. No 'modern' history to compare to.

Planes, Trains and Automobiles... they were there in 1900, but most people were born and lived within a few miles of their birthplace their whole life. It's a little different now. I just read that New York is trying to do what Hawaii did 3 months ago with the 14 day quarantine. It worked here, but we don't have trains or automobiles to deal with when people come here. Three months ago it was the opposite with Florida trying to keep New Yorkers from 'invading' their state. My, how things how changed.

Barr and the Feds in the Justice Dept are threatening Hawaii that the quarantine is 'unconstitutional' to block any American citizen coming from another state, so our very weak, timid Governor is relaxing the 14 days by offering any visitor to get a medical clearance within 48 hours of the flight out here and they can skip the 14 days. Not sure how NY will do it, but knowing Cuomo, they have a lot more $$$ and far better lawyers to go to court against the Feds then Hawaii does. It's an interesting choice: Constitution or Public Heath during a pandemic.

[RiverDog]

That's sure one of the problems we're dealing with. No 'modern' history to compare to.

Planes, Trains and Automobiles... they were there in 1900, but most people were born and lived within a few miles of their birthplace their whole life. It's a little different now. I just read that New York is trying to do what Hawaii did 3 months ago with the 14 day quarantine. It worked here, but we don't have trains or automobiles to deal with when people come here. Three months ago it was the opposite with Florida trying to keep New Yorkers from 'invading' their state. My, how things how changed.

Barr and the Feds in the Justice Dept are threatening Hawaii that the quarantine is 'unconstitutional' to block any American citizen coming from another state, so our very weak, timid Governor is relaxing the 14 days by offering any visitor to get a medical clearance within 48 hours of the flight out here and they can skip the 14 days. Not sure how NY will do it, but knowing Cuomo, they have a lot more $$$ and far better lawyers to go to court against the Feds then Hawaii does. It's an interesting choice: Constitution or Public Heath during a pandemic.

I'd be curious as to what part of the Constitution the Feds are drawing their authority on. To my knowledge, there's nothing in the Constitution that guarantees citizens of unrestricted travel. They bar citizens from entering danger zones all the time in cases of natural disasters, fires, floods, etc, allowing only residents to enter.

I see where they've canceled the HOF game and delayed the HOF induction ceremonies to an undermined date. It's the first official cancelation of an NFL game due to the pandemic but likely not the last.

[trents]

They just need to make the HOF induction ceremony virtual like they're doing with many things. But maybe we've moving to virtual NFL. It would be a lot easier on real bodies. An extension of fantasy football.

[RiverDog]

They just need to make the HOF induction ceremony virtual like they're doing with many things. But maybe we've moving to virtual NFL. It would be a lot easier on real bodies. An extension of fantasy football.

Part of the thrill for the inductees is putting on their gold jacket in front of their adoring fans and family members. Making it virtual robs those guys of that once-in-a-lifetime experience. I'd rather they delay it until next spring or do a joint induction with the class of 2020 and 2021.

[trents]

Joint induction. I like that idea.

[RiverDog]

The MLB and their union announced the results of their first round of coronavirus testing:

According to their joint statement, 31 players and seven staff members tested positive out of the 3,185 total individuals tested (1.2 positivity rate). Nineteen of 30 teams had positive cases.

While the results are promising, it's important to note there still will be significant health and safety hurdles for the league to avoid a spread when the 60-game season begins later this month. A number of teams, including the Boston Red Sox, started workouts Friday at their home ballparks.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-so ... ng-results

Of course, MLB's challenge is a drop in the bucket compared to the complexity of operating 32 NFL football teams and their supporting staffs, but nevertheless, it leaves some hope that we'll have football in one form or another this season.

[RiverDog]

It's been less than a week since MLB started back up, and already they have a major setback: The Miami Marlins had at least 12 players and 2 members of their traveling squad test positive for the coronavirus. 12 players is roughly half their team:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/27/spor ... celed.html

I hate to be Debbie Downer, but if MLB, with their smaller rosters and much less complicated operations, can't return to play and have some sense of a normal season, I can't see how the NFL is going to be able to manage it.

[RiverDog]

The St. Louis Cardinals are now quarantined in a hotel after 3 players and 3 staff members of their traveling party tested positive for COVID with more positive results expected:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/m ... 562294002/

The Commish has told the union that unless players don't do a better job of following the protocols that they'll shut down the season. They've already notified their broadcasting partners to be prepared with alternate programming.

[obiken]

It's been less than a week since MLB started back up, and already they have a major setback: The Miami Marlins had at least 12 players and 2 members of their traveling squad test positive for the coronavirus. 12 players is roughly half their team:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/27/spor ... celed.html

I hate to be Debbie Downer, but if MLB, with their smaller rosters and much less complicated operations, can't return to play and have some sense of a normal season, I can't see how the NFL is going to be able to manage it.

Spot on River, I am just HOPING we can hammer out an agreement to have College Football, but I would be shocked IF we have it.

[NorthHawk]

Football in both the NFL and CFB will probably look a lot different.
Some high profile players in college are opting out and the schedules for those teams that do play
look like they will be limited. One major outbreak at a school could throw the whole schedule for
that conference out of alignment regarding conference champions.
It's going to be a strange year.

[RiverDog]

The number of positives for the Cards is up to 13, 7 players and 6 staff members.

The Cards canceled a 4 game series with the Detroit Tigers after having canceled a series with the Brewers. The Miami Marlins have yet to resume play since their COVID breakout last week.

Apparently some of the Cards players went to a casino after a game. Players were strongly discouraged but not prohibited from leaving their hotel rooms. They've traced the Florida Marlin's outbreak to 3 or 4 players going out to some bars while they were in Atlanta for their last spring training game. The league has since tightened the restrictions, mandating that players and staff stay put.

To say that this is going to be a weird season is a gross understatement.

[NorthHawk]

It seems to me that teams have to stress that breaking their bubbles endanger the whole team and possible success
and that by doing so it is a huge disrespect for their teammates. It's going to be difficult for 20 somethings to contain
themselves, but I think it's become part of the job. It wouldn't surprise me if teams have a rule that if a player is found
to be going to bars or casinos, they would suspend them for a week or two and have them quarantined. The Veterans
might be more forceful in that it's not only putting the veterans health on the line, but their livelihood as well.
Peer pressure might be the most powerful force of all in these situations.

[RiverDog]

It seems to me that teams have to stress that breaking their bubbles endanger the whole team and possible success
and that by doing so it is a huge disrespect for their teammates. It's going to be difficult for 20 somethings to contain
themselves, but I think it's become part of the job. It wouldn't surprise me if teams have a rule that if a player is found
to be going to bars or casinos, they would suspend them for a week or two and have them quarantined. The Veterans
might be more forceful in that it's not only putting the veterans health on the line, but their livelihood as well.
Peer pressure might be the most powerful force of all in these situations.

We have to keep in mind that it's not just players, it's coaches and staff members. Of the 13 Cardinals that tested positive, only 7 were players. I'm not sure how many members are on the staff of a professional or major college football team, but there has to be as many coaches and staff as there are players, which would put the number each team has to quarantine well over 100. They'd have to hire dozens of security guards just to babysit everyone.

This has the potential to be a real train wreck. The infection rate in the US is still climbing and is now sweeping through rural areas as well as the big cities. We're only 2 months away from the start of the flu season, and with the changing of the seasons, people will be moving back indoors where the virus can spread more easily. If the trend doesn't reverse itself by the end of the month, I can't see how governments can allow games to be played even without the presence of fans. If the MLB can't do it in the dog days of summer and with half the personnel, I can't see how football can pull it off in the fall/winter.

[NorthHawk]

I share your pessimism, RD.
The only way it can work out is if everyone is on the same page and makes some sacrifices.
I'm not sure that us as a whole in Western societies are willing to give up what we have become used to
even though it's a very small act relative to past generations.

[RiverDog]

I share your pessimism, RD.
The only way it can work out is if everyone is on the same page and makes some sacrifices.
I'm not sure that us as a whole in Western societies are willing to give up what we have become used to
even though it's a very small act relative to past generations.

You can't even call it a sacrifice. Minor inconvenience is a more apt description. There's about 10% of the population that think being required to wear a mask when they enter a store is a violation of their rights even when the store offers to bring them their purchase to them.

I've pretty much resigned to myself to the prospect that we're not going to have a football season that isn't so compromised that it can be considered legitimate. Just watch, the Super Bowl will feature the Browns vs. the Lions.

Might as well lower our expectations now so we're not highly upset when it happens.

[jshawaii22]

The idea of a "bubble" is obviously working. NBA, NHL have shown it. Baseball in showing the NFL how hard it will be for a season without a bubble.Too bad the NFL is such a long season.
By giving all players a free op-out, there should be no players coming in that will think it's OK to 'cheat'... but I'm sure the Marlin players were given the same speech before they went clubbing in Atlanta.

The Bucs are renting a hotel for any of the players and staff to live in, if they choose. I'll bet it won't be long until all teams try something like that to house them throughout the season. This is while they are home, not on the road.

[RiverDog]

The idea of a "bubble" is obviously working. NBA, NHL have shown it. Baseball in showing the NFL how hard it will be for a season without a bubble.Too bad the NFL is such a long season.
By giving all players a free op-out, there should be no players coming in that will think it's OK to 'cheat'... but I'm sure the Marlin players were given the same speech before they went clubbing in Atlanta.

The Bucs are renting a hotel for any of the players and staff to live in, if they choose. I'll bet it won't be long until all teams try something like that to house them throughout the season. This is while they are home, not on the road.

If they do go to a bubble concept, the players and staff are going to have to be very dedicated to their sport/occupation in order to essentially slip off the face of the Earth for 6 months, but then again, what they're being asked to do isn't any different than what we ask members of the military to do when they go on a long deployment.

I have my doubts that they can pull it off simply due to the numbers of people they have to manage vs. that of other sports, but I have a tendency to be a bit of a pessimist when it comes to these kinds of challenges.

[NorthHawk]

I think the biggest concerns are with the "Diva" types who don't conform to anything they don't like in life.
The types who think the rules don't apply to them. I would think every team has at least 1 player like that.

[RiverDog]

I think the biggest concerns are with the "Diva" types who don't conform to anything they don't like in life.
The types who think the rules don't apply to them. I would think every team has at least 1 player like that.

Having a big, Type A personality ego is almost a prerequisite to becoming a major league professional athlete. Combine that with the almost universal attribute of young people thinking they're indestructible (and having once been young myself, I can sympathize with that feeling) and I'd be very surprised if it there were just one "Diva type" out of the 100 or so that would be included within the bubble.

But the league isn't going to use the bubble approach, so positives are going to be evadible, the only question being which team loses the most key players. So far, 56 players, or about 2%, have tested positive since players began reporting last week:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2 ... g-to-camp/

No information on how many staff members have tested positive.

I'm not sure what percentage of rosters would be considered 'acceptable', but this thing spreads so easily that two players or staff members could infect dozens in that kind of environment if they're not careful.

[RiverDog]

There's 66 players that have voluntarily opted out. I don't see any marque names. New England heads the list with 6 players:

https://www.nfl.com/news/list-of-nfl-pl ... 020-season

I'm not sure what the true percentage of players this represents. If one were to assume that all 66 would have made the 53-man roster, the percentage would be about 4% (66 divided by 53 times 32). Training camp rosters are limited to 80, which would make that percentage about 2.5%.

[jshawaii22]

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/08/07/nfl-introduces-point-of-care-testing/

This is the best news going forward. I knew the technology was there, they just needed to find the disease 'key' so that the test could identify it.
Doing research, the plan is for the players/staff/media/workers to take 2 tests within 30 minutes of each other. Pass both tests to get into the stadium or practice facility. Taking 2 tests eliminates the 3-5% of the incorrect tests. Note that the NFL ($$$$$$$$$) got this technology before the airports, states, courthouses, etc. etc. and I imagine the White House, too.

[c_hawkbob]

I believe tha CDC authorized POC testing in May (or earlier) but the shortage of testing supplies (most notably reagents) has prevented it from being widespread. Not surprised the NFL can afford it, but I wouldn't assume the WH can't, how do you think they keep identifying people that were supposed to meet with the Prez that day of testing positive or saying so and so tested positive after having tested negation the day before? Those tests weren't sent off to a lab.