Clowney

[mykc14]

This article paints a bleak picture for the Hawks in terms of finding pass rush help this off-season. Not only does it speculate (according to a source from ESPN) that we won't be in the Clowney bidding war but that there really won't be many pass-rush options available at all. We obviously need pass-rush help even if we re-sign Clowney, if we don't resign him then we are in big trouble on the DL!!

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2020/3/3/211 ... rett-jones

[NorthHawk]

A lot of stuff is going to happen between now and FA.
It's quite possible we don't get him back, but he says he wants to go to a contending team
and he enjoyed playing here. Maybe if the money is close he will stay, but even if he doesn't
I wouldn't be surprised if we sent a draft pick for the Jag's player Yannick Ngakoue.
He would be worth a 1st pick in my opinion and since he's not happy there, we may get
him for a lesser amount than if he had wanted to stay.

We'll see how it works out.

[RiverDog]

A lot of stuff is going to happen between now and FA.
It's quite possible we don't get him back, but he says he wants to go to a contending team
and he enjoyed playing here. Maybe if the money is close he will stay, but even if he doesn't
I wouldn't be surprised if we sent a draft pick for the Jag's player Yannick Ngakoue.
He would be worth a 1st pick in my opinion and since he's not happy there, we may get
him for a lesser amount than if he had wanted to stay.

We'll see how it works out.

Like many players/agents before him/them, a lot of comments get tossed around during contract negotiations. I can remember the Mariner's Alex Rodriguez saying how he wanted to play for a contender, too, then signed for a huge pile of money for a 2nd division team. I also remember how Steve Hutchinson said that he wanted to come back with the Seahawks, too. But how attitudes can change when someone fans a bunch of money in front of their noses. I've learned not to put a lot of faith in anyone or any comment until they sign on the dotted line.

[RiverDog]

According to this, Clowney is asking for $22-23M:

https://heavy.com/sports/2020/03/jadeve ... srWJlx-L0k

That would take up about half of our available cap money with decisions still to be made on players like Reed, Ifedi, Fant, Kendricks, et al.

Is he worth it?

[c_hawkbob]

Those numbers usually come from agents if not just made as assumptions by the 'NFL source', I don't put much stock in them (even if I do think they're fairly close).

[NorthHawk]

In 4 years or less, that will probably look like a bargain for a top DE.
With the Cap expected to take a huge jump and the escalating salaries for exceptional players
it isn't hard to imagine it being a middle of the road $ figure.

[mykc14]

Those numbers usually come from agents if not just made as assumptions by the 'NFL source', I don't put much stock in them (even if I do think they're fairly close).

I basically agree with this. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get 22-23 mil/year, but when exact numbers come out it’s usually agent putting stuff out there, along with the Giants being on Clowney’s ‘wishlist.’ IMO he really wants to be back in Seattle and his agent wants it to look like he’s more than willing to leave. The fact that the Hawks are willing to let him look around and want to get the opportunity ‘match any offer’ is a bit worrisome to me. That is what they have told other FA as well (Tate, Sherm, etc...) and they don’t usually match those offers. If he gets to FA he is probably gone. Who was the last guy they let test Free Agency and then they brought back? I can’t think of anybody really, but I could be wrong.

[mykc14]

Is he worth it?

This is the question. I tend to think he is worth around that much. He’s a major disruptive force on the DL. He has good pressure percentages and has been one of the top DE in the league against the run. He also is among the most frequently double teamed DEs in the league. With that being said he hasn’t been a Donald/Watt/Avon Miller/Mack guy. He’s certainly got the potential and if we were to bring in a true Leo to help relieve some of his double teams then he would have better sack numbers.

[c_hawkbob]

I don't think "worth it", at least on his own merits, is even a question. He's the kind of disruptor on the line that John Randle was, he doesn't need gaudy sack #'s to justify his worth. The real question is whether we decide we can do without him in light of other player availability and what else we want to do with our available resources.

For myself, I 100% want us to keep him.

[NorthHawk]

I don't think money is an object the way the teams can use cash and bonuses to move things
around and make players fit. Look at the Cowboys and who they have on their team and they
still can add players. For your benefit the have the highest paid LT, LG, RB, and now they offered
Dak $33 million/year as well as having the 3rd highest paid C and RT. They will also be offering
Amari Cooper a big deal to keep him. They had to make some other choices, though but we don't
have nearly the number of huge salaries they do. They do it by spending a lot of cash and working
the system. We can do it too and have 3 of the highest paid players at their positions plus add a
number of very good players in supporting roles.

A few years ago people were tearing their hair out about Russell's salary and today it's become
much less of an impact because of the Cap increases and will get easier each year.

So the question isn't is Clowney worth it but rather can we get enough supporting players to let
him be the best player he can be. Trades might be part of the future makeup of our DL or maybe
we hit on draft pick, but JC should be a big part of it if we want to improve our front 4.

[RiverDog]

IMO Clowney is a 2nd tier defensive player, behind guys like JJ Watt, Aaron Donald, Kahlil Mack, Von Miller, etc. But we can't judge his worth by comparing his proposed salary to those guys as it doesn't take into account the rate of inflation, so $22-23M might be a fair number.

As was the case last season with Russell's contract, I'm comfortable letting Pete and John figure this stuff out and will support their decision in which ever way they decide to go.

[mykc14]

I don't think "worth it", at least on his own merits, is even a question. He's the kind of disruptor on the line that John Randle was, he doesn't need gaudy sack #'s to justify his worth. The real question is whether we decide we can do without him in light of other player availability and what else we want to do with our available resources.

For myself, I 100% want us to keep him.

I also want to keep him. Do you see us signing him if he isn’t signed by free agency? My best guess is that we sign him to around 22.5-23 mil/ year on a 4 year contract (I would rather it be a 5 year contract) and it gets done next Tuesday. Once we sign him everything else can fall into place, but we’ve got to find a true Leo somewhere too.

[NorthHawk]

He’s going to try FA, but I think we will know almost immediately as these things
happen quite quickly. Many times deals are made prior to FA beginning.
My understanding is he will give us a chance to match any deal as he liked playing here.
But you never know...

[mykc14]

He’s going to try FA, but I think we will know almost immediately as these things
happen quite quickly. Many times deals are made prior to FA beginning.
My understanding is he will give us a chance to match any deal as he liked playing here.
But you never know...

Yeah, I’m more talking about after the legal tampering period. Actual FA begins a week from Wednesday, but the Legal Tampering period is Monday and Tuesday, I’m saying that he will gauge his value on Monday and Tuesday and if he’s not signed by the Hawks by Tuesday at 11:59 pm then he’s probably gone.

[trents]

I'm surprised Clowney is still available. Price too high or injury concerns?

[c_hawkbob]

I'm surprised Clowney is still available. Price to high or injury concerns?

Yes.

[Stream Hawk]

I’m seeing reports that he signed for two years. Backloaded contract with $11.5m guaranteed. Sorry the source is via Twitter so I don’t have a link.

[obiken]

Haa Haa, CBob you crack me up! No question its both! For me however its the mostly the injuries. IF we could get 3 years of an Aaron Donald, JJ Watt, or Reggie White, it wouldn't sting so bad, and he has that ability; however, its the injury factor with him that scares me the most. No question I have had a steep learning curve on current NFL salaries. Somewhere I missed the NFL salary warp between 5 Million and 10 Million dollars a year! Especially for defensive players. Earl was worth 5 million a year, 10 million? Not so much.

[Aseahawkfan]

Earl or any player is worth what the market will pay them.

Clowney is not elite in my book. He has some great talent, but not the durability of consistency of top tier talent. Hopefully he can change that, but not usually the case for positions that rely on power and speed as they age.

[trents]

So maybe the Hawks are just waiting to see if anybody else is interested in signing him and if not, maybe keep him at a cut rate?

[RiverDog]

So maybe the Hawks are just waiting to see if anybody else is interested in signing him and if not, maybe keep him at a cut rate?

I cringe when I hear that $18.5M is a "cut rate".

I think it's been the understanding from the day we traded for him that Clowney was going to test the FA market and give the Hawks a chance to match any offers he might receive. Things have been very cordial, he's said a lot of very nice things about our team, and he says he wants to play for a contender.

The way I see it, I do agree with others that claim he's not worth a huge contract, but at this point, given our current roster, I don't see us as competing for a Super Bowl unless we have the type of player with the upside that Clowney can give us, so if we have to overpay him, then so be it.

[trents]

Is Clowney asking for 18.5 mil?

[NorthHawk]

We don’t really know what he was asking.
However reports were the range was up tp $22m - at least from what I’ve heard.

A scenario that has crossed my mind as a possible turn of events might have been
something like this:

Background :
Clowney was going to test FA.
The Seahawks want to re-sign him.
Both sides expected substantial bids for him.
Reports say the Seahawks have offered either $13.5m or $18.5m

Scenario:
The Seahawks threw in a “stink bid” of $13.5m to keep their hat in the ring.
There was very little interest from other teams. Clowney was insulted or at
least very disappointed. Seattle knew that was too low so they updated the
offer perhaps a couple of times and now sit at $18.5m and Clowney dropped
his demand to what is currently reported as $20m. And here we sit waiting
for a resolution.

In this scenario, I can’t blame the team for not wanting to add more as they
have moved a lot and are in near proper value for Clowney. Clowney, on the
other hand might just be willing to hold on for a while longer in case a team
wants to make a better offer. After all, from his PoV there is a lot of time
before it has to be done anyway so why not wait?


I’m probably way off base, but odd things happen during negotiations.

[jshawaii22]

Clowney 100% expected to be the highest paid DE and get a 4-5 year contract coming out of FA this year. This is an 'ego' issue that probably was pumped up by his agents. It's very common, and hard to break out of.
He can 'blame' Js all he wants, but the fact is he could be really, really good, but he's not, at least consistently. Having watched Michael Bennett for a few years, (the most recent 'disruptive' DE) I don't see Clowney at that every game day level.
For whatever the team is offering, the rest of the league evidently sees it the same way, or the Giants, Jets, Raiders, Dolphins, etc who had zillions of cap space, would of jumped on him from day #1.
As I mentioned earlier, he very well may be our best DE, but he's not league level elite, in my opinion and not worth us overpaying.
17m x 2 years =34m with 20m guaranteed seems more in the ballpark with incentives for workouts and other throw-ins (if still allowed in a contract) to make sure he shows up.

[c_hawkbob]

According to Greg Bell of the Tacoma News Tribune he's got offers on the table from us, the Titans and the Jets. I've also read from less solid sources that he and our front office are working on the details of a contract now with the sticking point being guaranteed money.

[mykc14]

According to Greg Bell of the Tacoma News Tribune he's got offers on the table from us, the Titans and the Jets. I've also read from less solid sources that he and our front office are working on the details of a contract now with the sticking point being guaranteed money.

Hopefully that second part is true, and if it is let’s get it done!!!

[trents]

Am I right in thinking it was decided Clowney didn't need surgery to correct his "core injury," "sports hernia," or whatever you want to call it? I wonder how his rehab is coming along and if we can expect that issue to be resolved by the start of training camp or the regular season, which ever comes first in light of this COVID 19 thing.

[c_hawkbob]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-sea ... 16414.html

[RiverDog]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-seahawks-moving-toward-deal-173016414.html

Thanks for the heads up!

[mykc14]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-seahawks-moving-toward-deal-173016414.html

Crazy to me. I am hoping for a multi year deal, but at this point it’s going to be clear that he’s not going to be a $20 mil/year guy and if he’s set on signing a 1-year contract I’m just glad it’s here! Getting Clowney at 13-15 mil might allow them to sign Everson Griffen as well. I would have rather had Clowney and Fowler, but Clowney and Griffen would make us better than we were last year.

[RiverDog]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-seahawks-moving-toward-deal-173016414.html

Crazy to me. I am hoping for a multi year deal, but at this point it’s going to be clear that he’s not going to be a $20 mil/year guy and if he’s set on signing a 1-year contract I’m just glad it’s here! Getting Clowney at 13-15 mil might allow them to sign Everson Griffen as well. I would have rather had Clowney and Fowler, but Clowney and Griffen would make us better than we were last year.

Assuming it's true, it's bad timing for Clowney. Given the inflation of salaries and that he's the best defensive player on the market, he certainly would have received a better offer had it not been for the uncertainty of the times.

If we do sign him for that kind of money, I hope he's not the type to let it disappoint him so much that it affects his play.

[trents]

For Clowney, it may be a perfect storm.

[NorthHawk]

I'm becoming pessimistic about re-signing Clowney at all, now.

[RiverDog]

I'm becoming pessimistic about re-signing Clowney at all, now.

Yeah, kinda like waiting for the verdict to come in from a trial.

[NorthHawk]

That's an analogy I hadn't thought of but is surprisingly accurate.

[RiverDog]

I would have expected to hear something by now. According to Greg Bell at TNT, the hang up could be that the Hawks are wanting a multi year deal while Clowney could be asking for a one year contract:

And now he (Clowney) may be of a one-year mind. Get back to the market when the coronavirus crisis presumably won’t shut down travel to team facilities for physical exams. Get that megabucks deal when he is 28, instead of 27.

That scenario indeed could be a potential win for the Seahawks to retain him. But they would not be better off.

The obvious reason: any team would want a still relatively young athletic freak at a position so coveted in this passer-and-sack-the-passer league for as many years of his prime as possible. Clowney signed through 2023—Seattle prefers four-year contracts for big veterans—would have him anchoring Seattle’s needy pass rush through his 30th birthday. That is for as long as Russell Wilson is under contract to be the franchise quarterback.

Plus, general manager John Schneider and Matt Thomas, his top salary cap man and negotiator, aren’t just envisioning what the pass rush and roster is going to be in 2020 as you and I are. They plan three, four and five years out. They have constructed a vision for what their salary-cap structure will look like out to 2023 and beyond, how they may spend the extra tens of millions the cap is going to grow in coming years with the league’s new collective bargaining agreement.

They are planning when the contracts for their starters and big-ticket players are expiring, looking ahead to what it might cost to re-sign them and how that will affect the rest of the roster.

https://www-1.thenewstribune.com/sports ... .html#aprd

[mykc14]

River-

That scenario makes complete sense to me. He wants to test the market next year- a little ironic given the fact that he demanded that the Hawks wouldn’t F-Tag him when they traded for him and he now almost certainly will get less than the tag if he were to sign a 1-year deal. If they are really only 5% off on a multi-year deal it (18.5 vs. 20) then it’s pretty stupid they haven’t been able to finalize this yet. I imagine they are further apart. Either he’s still looking for 22+ mil or the Gawks offered less. At any rate I hope we don’t lose him to a 1-year deal over 1.5 mil... we just need to get this thug done.

[NorthHawk]

That pretty much explains the impasse, I guess.
I don’t see how it can be overcome without one side caving.
If they really valued him, they would up their offer to what
they think he’s worth in a normal year. At least that’s the way I
would approach it so as to not poison the waters in later
negotiations. But there’s a reason I’m not a GM...

[jshawaii22]

Just get it done. Whether he signs with us or with some other team, I want it to happen soon, because it is becoming an obsession. I hate waiting.

This might be one reason why it's on hold: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

This site is usually pretty close and they have us at 14m for our 2020 cap, with only 62 players under contract (i think we need to have 80 in camp) On a one-year deal, it's got to be 100% against the cap for the year you sign the deal, so something has to give to 'get it done' - including restructuring other contracts or releasing players.

[RiverDog]

Just get it done. Whether he signs with us or with some other team, I want it to happen soon, because it is becoming an obsession. I hate waiting.

This might be one reason why it's on hold: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

This site is usually pretty close and they have us at 14m for our 2020 cap, with only 62 players under contract (i think we need to have 80 in camp) On a one-year deal, it's got to be 100% against the cap for the year you sign the deal, so something has to give to 'get it done' - including restructuring other contracts or releasing players.

It's not like that has jumped up and bit them in the behind. Schneider has known his budget for some time. I have to believe that the Hawks offer has been on the table for awhile and it's Clowney that's hedging, most likely over the length of the proposed contract.