Bye Week Mess

[obiken]

CBob, River, other guys:

If Phii Beats the Pats its a mess, and I am ready to say there is no clear favorite. Wouldn't shock me at all to see the Cards beat the niners with all there people out.

[RiverDog]

CBob, River, other guys:

If Phii Beats the Pats its a mess, and I am ready to say there is no clear favorite. Wouldn't shock me at all to see the Cards beat the niners with all there people out.

I think it's already "a mess". Even if the Pats beat the Eagles, there's still 3 or 4 teams very capable of beating them, ie the Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, perhaps even the Texans. And as far as the Niners go, their remaining schedule is every bit as tough as ours, with the Packers, Ravens, Saints, Rams, and the finale against us in our house. The playoff picture could and probably will change a bunch before its all said and done. Any team with 4 or fewer losses still has a viable chance of securing HFA.

I usually don't start looking at playoff possibilities, ie who has to lose, who has the tiebreaker advantage, what everyone's remaining schedule looks like, and so on, until after the Thanksgiving games.

[obiken]

Man River, I sure ate on my Patriot Man Crush, they just looked invincible. I should know that in the Salary cap era this is no such thing.

[c_hawkbob]

The NFC is our oyster, if we're capable of holding up our end. San Fran is the only team with a better record and we have them at home week 17.

[RiverDog]

The NFC is our oyster, if we're capable of holding up our end. San Fran is the only team with a better record and we have them at home week 17.

Not sure if you're thinking HFA or not, but the Saints are 7-2 and own the tiebreaker on us and the Packers have the same record as us, both overall and intraconference. But as I said, it's still too early to start projecting playoff scenarios.

Just looking at the scoreboard, what the heck has gotten into Atlanta? They're up 20-0 at the half on the road against Carolina. More proof regarding how unpredictable the NFL is.

[RiverDog]

Man River, I sure ate on my Patriot Man Crush, they just looked invincible. I should know that in the Salary cap era this is no such thing.

The Pats could run the table and end up 18-1, too.

No offense whatsoever as you're a long time friend, but I do think that due to your being such a college football fan that you get yourself into that kind of a mindset where if you lose one game you're season is doomed. The NFL is a lot more dynamic. Just think of the predicament your Oregon Ducks are in: They lost their opener to a top 25 opponent by 6 points, have since run off 9 straight wins, yet the odds of their making the playoffs are against them. That doesn't happen in the NFL, where you can have a losing record and still have a shot at winning the Super Bowl.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I think it will come down to a 1-loss Oregon PAC 12 Champion vs a 1-loss Baylor/Oklahoma Big 12 champion; not sure who you would put in out of the two. Ohio State, Clemson, and LSU/UGA likely get the other 3 spots.

In other news, 49ers can't seem to find any momentum against 'Zona right now. 16-0 Arizona and 9 minutes left in the first half.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

Spoke too soon. Going to be close it seems.

[RiverDog]

I think it will come down to a 1-loss Oregon PAC 12 Champion vs a 1-loss Baylor/Oklahoma Big 12 champion; not sure who you would put in out of the two. Ohio State, Clemson, and LSU/UGA likely get the other 3 spots.

In other news, 49ers can't seem to find any momentum against 'Zona right now. 16-0 Arizona and 9 minutes left in the first half.

If Alabama runs the table and beats Auburn in their last game, not only will their only loss be in a close game to the #1 team in the nation, they will have beaten the team that beat Oregon. That and 'bama's reputation would make it almost impossible to leave them out in favor of Oregon. Even a Pac 12 fan like me couldn't rationalize advancing Oregon in that scenario.

Oklahoma has a bad loss to unranked K-State, so it would be dang hard to take them over Alabama or Oregon. Even Utah could make a stronger case than Oklahoma, especially if they were to blow out Oregon in the Pac 12 championship.

If the top teams all run the table, the playoff participants will be LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, and Alabama. Oregon is going to have to hope for an upset to get in, assuming they beat Utah, which has been looking pretty darn good.

[trents]

At this point in the season, it looks to me that the Ravens are the best team in the NFL. They are mowing down every team they face lately and no one seems to have an answer to the the dual threat style of Lamar Jackson. All the talking head commentators are saying the Raven's offense is indefensible. Of course, key injuries could change all that.

[idhawkman]

The NFC is our oyster, if we're capable of holding up our end. San Fran is the only team with a better record and we have them at home week 17.

Technically N.O. also has a better record since they beat us head-to-head but your point is taken. We control our own destiny for a first round bye at this point.

[Hawktawk]

At this point in the season, it looks to me that the Ravens are the best team in the NFL. They are mowing down every team they face lately and no one seems to have an answer to the the dual threat style of Lamar Jackson. All the talking head commentators are saying the Raven's offense is indefensible. Of course, key injuries could change all that.

I agree. And when you look at the fact that Seattle gifted them 14 points we were really quite competitive in the game. I hope we get a rematch

[Rambo2014]

I just can't see you winning any of the last 6 games. Letdown in Philly, battered by Minny, crushed by the Rams, figured out by the Panthers plus a long trip, ARZ lays 50 on ya and SF cleans the plate

[RiverDog]

Technically N.O. also has a better record since they beat us head-to-head but your point is taken. We control our own destiny for a first round bye at this point.

Not quite. The Packers have the same record, both overall (8-2) and conference (5-1), as we do. Depending on how the other teams fare over the next ten weeks, we could win out and not secure a first round bye, losing out to both the Saints and the Packers.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

[trents]

My concern for the Hawks this weekend is being sluggish after the bye week. They tend to start slow anyway. Has anyone seen stats on how teams fair the next game after a bye? Seems to me more often than not they look rusty.

[RiverDog]

My concern for the Hawks this weekend is being sluggish after the bye week. They tend to start slow anyway. Has anyone seen stats on how teams fair the next game after a bye? Seems to me more often than not they look rusty.

Pete is 6-3 coming out of the bye week. That's slightly better than his .633 overall winning percentage as Seahawks head coach.

https://seahawkswire.usatoday.com/2019/ ... bye-weeks/

Additionally, 2 of those losses came in his first 3 years as head coach, so he's won 5 of 6 after bye games since 2013.

[trents]

I see where the odds makers are making Philly a one point favorite. That surprises me since Seattle's record is much better.

[RiverDog]

I see where the odds makers are making Philly a one point favorite. That surprises me since Seattle's record is much better.

Philly will get at least a point due to their being the home team, so they're saying it's essentially a toss up, to which I agree. Additionally, amongst the factors book makers use to establish a betting line is the amount of money they expect to be bet on a certain team. Their goal is to even the potential payout to as close to 50% as possible so they'll add points to reduce the risk of a certain outcome and encourage more bets on the opposite team. They make their money on a percentage they take from winnings, generally around 5%. That's why the point spread varies during the week even when there's no news. They're adjusting the line to account for the difference between their predicted bets and how they're actually coming in.

Casual betting can skew the point spread. If you have a fan base that has a lot of bat chit crazy fans, say like the Cowboys, that will bet on their team no matter what the odds, the bookies will pick up on that tendency and adjust the point spread accordingly. In contrast, if a team that has hardly any fan base, like the Chargers, they'll favor them in anticipation of very little casual betting taking place on that team. They track the betting tendencies of every fan base.

Unless I'm betting myself, I don't pay much attention to the point spread.

[c_hawkbob]

Home team is generally worth 3 points, sometimes a half a point more ore less, but never just a point.

[Uppercut]

Looks like cold and rainy weather. Not good for Russ but he better get used to it.

[RiverDog]

Home team is generally worth 3 points, sometimes a half a point more ore less, but never just a point.

It would depend on the venue. If the Chargers are playing at home, most of the audience consists of opposition fans, so the only advantage they get out of home field is not having to travel and familiarity with the venue. But I get your point.

[Hawktawk]

Looks like cold and rainy weather. Not good for Russ but he better get used to it.

This here^ love me some Russ but he’s not generally as good in foul weather. Nobody is but imo
He’s been noticeably bad .

[RiverDog]

Looks like cold and rainy weather. Not good for Russ but he better get used to it.

This here^ love me some Russ but he’s not generally as good in foul weather. Nobody is but imo
He’s been noticeably bad .

It's happened too often to just be a random coincidence, but I don't know how to explain it.

[idhawkman]

Home team is generally worth 3 points, sometimes a half a point more ore less, but never just a point.

That's the rule of thumb I've always gone by but I recognize that my thumb doesn't look like everyone elses.