Biden's Gaffes

[Aseahawkfan]

If Biden wins the nomination, he almost certainly will pick a female running mate.

As long as he doesn't Palin it, he shouldn't have a problem. I imagine he could pick Warren or Kamala to appeal to the farther left of his party, though not sure that would be great either.

[RiverDog]

If Biden wins the nomination, he almost certainly will pick a female running mate.

As long as he doesn't Palin it, he shouldn't have a problem. I imagine he could pick Warren or Kamala to appeal to the farther left of his party, though not sure that would be great either.

Warren is too old (70). They're going to want someone that's going to be around awhile. If Biden wins the Presidency, he may not run for a 2nd term. Plus Warren also has a lot of baggage, primarily regarding her self described ancestry. If I'm Biden, I wouldn't want to have to put up with the "Pocahontas" crap. Kamala Harris is young enough, but ideally, he'd be better off selecting someone from a competitive state. Biden could select Jeffery Epstein as his running mate and he'd still win CA by a million votes.

There's also a matter of political philosophy. It would be best for Biden to find a moderate centrist like himself or he'll subject his campaign to a "which one of you is right?" attack from the press and the Trump campaign, and none of the crop of 20+ Dem candidates are considered centrists.

Amy Kohlbacher of MN wouldn't be a bad choice as she's young enough (59) to make a run in 2024, the Dems barely won MN in 2016, she's an active candidate for POTUS so they could merge the two campaigns, and MN borders WI and MI, two states that Trump barely won and will be critical to his re-election. Although you can't call her a centrist, she's not as far left as some, for example, she does not want to abolish ICE, doesn't support free college for all, and has a somewhat moderate view on health insurance reform.

We'll see. If it's premature to talk about Biden winning the nomination, it's premature to be talking about his potential running mate.

[RiverDog]

It's a Biden's Gaffes thread, but President Trump continues to stick his foot in his mouth, or stick his head up his you-know-what, this time regarding Hurricane Dorian:

TRUMP: "The original course was dead into Florida. Now it seems to be going up toward South Carolina, toward North Carolina. Georgia's going to be hit. Alabama's going to get a piece of it, it looks like." — remarks to reporters Sunday.

Tump's remarks created a quick response from the NWS, concerned that Trump's proclamation of Alabama being threatened might cause undue alarm amongst it's citizens:

"Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian," tweeted the National Weather Service in Birmingham, Alabama. "We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east."

Few, if any, meteorologists put Alabama in its path.

And Trump was out in left field regarding his stated unawareness of Category 5 hurricanes:

"I'm not sure that I've ever even heard of a category 5. I knew it existed and I've seen some category 4's. You don't even see them that much. But a category 5 is something that I don't know that I've ever even heard the term other than I know it's there." — remarks Sunday at FEMA headquarters.

In his third hurricane season as president, Trump has had plenty of exposure to category 5 storms.

He made the same claim two years ago, saying he wasn't aware of category 5 storms until Hurricane Irma. "In Florida, you got hit with the strongest winds ever recorded. It actually hit the Keys with a_it was a Category 5. I never even knew a Category 5 existed," Trump said in September 2017.

[Hawktawk]

It's a Biden's Gaffes thread, but President Trump continues to stick his foot in his mouth, or stick his head up his you-know-what, this time regarding Hurricane Dorian:

TRUMP: "The original course was dead into Florida. Now it seems to be going up toward South Carolina, toward North Carolina. Georgia's going to be hit. Alabama's going to get a piece of it, it looks like." — remarks to reporters Sunday.

Tump's remarks created a quick response from the NWS, concerned that Trump's proclamation of Alabama being threatened might cause undue alarm amongst it's citizens:

"Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian," tweeted the National Weather Service in Birmingham, Alabama. "We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east."

Few, if any, meteorologists put Alabama in its path.

And Trump was out in left field regarding his stated unawareness of Category 5 hurricanes:

"I'm not sure that I've ever even heard of a category 5. I knew it existed and I've seen some category 4's. You don't even see them that much. But a category 5 is something that I don't know that I've ever even heard the term other than I know it's there." — remarks Sunday at FEMA headquarters.



In his third hurricane season as president, Trump has had plenty of exposure to category 5 storms.

He made the same claim two years ago, saying he wasn't aware of category 5 storms until Hurricane Irma. "In Florida, you got hit with the strongest winds ever recorded. It actually hit the Keys with a_it was a Category 5. I never even knew a Category 5 existed," Trump said in September 2017.

The mans mentally ill. I've been saying it from the beginning and honestly Im owed an apology I know i'll never get from the majority of the posters in here.

He's nuts, insane in the membrane, Pathologically narcissistic to the point he will NEVER accept ANY criticism or being proven to being wrong about anything. Hes a pathological liar of biblical proportions who lies about stuff that doesn't even really matter then doubles down on lies many provably false and backed up by videotape.

He couldn't hold any management job in america acting like he does and he's the *leader* of the free world. I saw an article the other day"imagine if Trump were an airline pilot". Indeed....Its scary he has any support whatsoever.

[Aseahawkfan]

The mans mentally ill. I've been saying it from the beginning and honestly Im owed an apology I know i'll never get from the majority of the posters in here.

He's nuts, insane in the membrane, Pathologically narcissistic to the point he will NEVER accept ANY criticism or being proven to being wrong about anything. Hes a pathological liar of biblical proportions who lies about stuff that doesn't even really matter then doubles down on lies many provably false and backed up by videotape.

He couldn't hold any management job in america acting like he does and he's the *leader* of the free world. I saw an article the other day"imagine if Trump were an airline pilot". Indeed....Its scary he has any support whatsoever.

I told you he was a narcissist from the beginning. I said this to everyone. Trump's all about himself. As far as mentally ill, I don't agree with that. He knows what he's doing. Always has. He's always been about talking like a salesman, blowing everything up, marketing all the time, and just pushing himself relentlessly.

No idea why any of you expect him to talk like other presidents when he never has. He doesn't care about facts and figures or accuracy. He cares about selling to whatever crowd he is talking to. Until it stops working for him, he won't change.

When he's on a reality TV show, it can be entertaining. When he's president, it's annoying. What's even more annoying is the way his Trumpbots make it seem like he's not doing what anyone that follows him objectively know he's doing: selling. They're getting sold crap that the guy selling it mostly doesn't believe in. If he wins a second term just because, he'll care about his followers even less. Then they'll see who they really voted for.

[RiverDog]

The mans mentally ill. I've been saying it from the beginning and honestly Im owed an apology I know i'll never get from the majority of the posters in here.

He's nuts, insane in the membrane, Pathologically narcissistic to the point he will NEVER accept ANY criticism or being proven to being wrong about anything. Hes a pathological liar of biblical proportions who lies about stuff that doesn't even really matter then doubles down on lies many provably false and backed up by videotape.

He couldn't hold any management job in america acting like he does and he's the *leader* of the free world. I saw an article the other day"imagine if Trump were an airline pilot". Indeed....Its scary he has any support whatsoever.

Trump's no doubt a narcissist, and a megalomaniac. You're exactly right about his refusal to accept any responsibility for anything he says and does. And as far as his management skills go, he wouldn't last a day, and there's no way I'd ever board a plane if he were anywhere near the cockpit. But I don't think he's mentally ill, at least not as I understand the definition of the term.

IMO Donald Trump is a typical spoiled rich kid who's never had to work a day in his life, and it's made his mind extremely lazy. He might have been born with an average or above average intelligence, but like an out of shape body, he's never had the need or desire to exercise his intellect. Unless it has something directly to do with money or a pleasurable activity like golf or sex, his mind does not have that natural curiosity about things, no fascination with science or history, no appreciation or respect of other cultures and lifestyles. Add that to the fact that like a lot of us, he's an old man with a declining mental acuity.

But Joe Biden isn't a whole lot better. His latest gaffe in his re-telling of an emotional story about the war in Afghanistan and his supposedly pinning a medal on a soldier is vey disturbing:

“In the space of three minutes, Biden got the time period, the location, the heroic act, the type of medal, the military branch and the rank of the recipient wrong, as well as his own role in the ceremony,” the paper elaborated. And like Trump, Biden refuses to take responsibility for his gaffe, claiming that he got "the essence" of the story correct.

[Aseahawkfan]

Man, we can't find a good leader to get behind at this moment. It's a shame.

[RiverDog]

Man, we can't find a good leader to get behind at this moment. It's a shame.

Yea, it's beyond sad. The two of them make a great case for a Constitutional amendment prohibiting anyone 70+ years old from taking the oath of office. At least Biden isn't a mean spirited racist.

I have a very good friend that I've debated politics with for 30 years and just got through golfing with today, a bed wetting liberal, who used to claim that the worst choices for POTUS we've ever had was Bush 43/Gore and Bush 43/Kerry. When I told him this morning of the latest Trump boner, saying that Alabama could get struck by Hurricane Dorian and Biden's tear jerking war story lie, he said that he was unaware of either gaffe because he can't even turn on the news anymore because it's just too painful.

I take a little lighter view, choosing to see the comedy in those two buffoons, like watching your friend come out of the bathroom with his fly unzipped.

[Hawktawk]

There is no humor in any of this to me. A president this dysfunctional , this antagonistic to our allies and accepting and accommodating to our enemies is a threat to world civilization. The people need to wake the hell up because the next pearl
Harbor will be devastating .

[RiverDog]

There is no humor in any of this to me. A president this dysfunctional , this antagonistic to our allies and accepting and accommodating to our enemies is a threat to world civilization. The people need to wake the hell up because the next pearl
Harbor will be devastating .

For 2.5 years we have managed to avoid the Armageddon that you were so certain was going to happen when Trump was ignauruated, I suspect that most of us will be around to celebrate his departure in January of 2021.

Although I'm not a deeply religious person, one of my favorite prayers goes like this: "God grant me the courage to change the things that I can change, the serenity to accept the things that I cannot change, and the wisdom to tell the difference between the two."

Or as a buddy of mine once told me as we were white water rafting concerning the possibility of getting dumped in a big rapid..."If it's inevitable that you're going to get raped, you might as well relax and enjoy it."

[Aseahawkfan]

There is no humor in any of this to me. A president this dysfunctional , this antagonistic to our allies and accepting and accommodating to our enemies is a threat to world civilization. The people need to wake the hell up because the next pearl
Harbor will be devastating .

Why do you give this guy that much power? He's not that powerful of a person to even do that much evil. His own party barely likes him. He's a clown show, but one that will leave soon enough and not hurt the United States other than be an annoying memory of recent history. You built Trump into a much bigger menace than he is capable of being. At least that is how I see it.

[RiverDog]

There is no humor in any of this to me. A president this dysfunctional , this antagonistic to our allies and accepting and accommodating to our enemies is a threat to world civilization. The people need to wake the hell up because the next pearl
Harbor will be devastating .

Why do you give this guy that much power? He's not that powerful of a person to even do that much evil. His own party barely likes him. He's a clown show, but one that will leave soon enough and not hurt the United States other than be an annoying memory of recent history. You built Trump into a much bigger menace than he is capable of being. At least that is how I see it.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that Trump hasn't 'hurt' the United States. All Presidents can and do have some sort of affect on the country, both good and bad. There's a good chance that his trade war could make things worse economically and make the next recession longer and deeper. And I do think he's hurt our standing internationally, but that this will be a short lived problem as once another more rational leader takes his place we'll quickly smooth over the rather artificial differences Trump has created.

I do think you are underestimating the stranglehold Trump has on the Republicans. Mitch McConnell is his lap dog, and won't put a single piece of legislation on the Senate floor unless he thinks Trump will approve it. Other R's are similarly paralyzed by Trump's strong support amongst their constituents. Trump still polls well over 80% amongst Republicans. You'll never get an honest response from the leader of either party when they're polling that strong of support within their party.

[Aseahawkfan]

I wouldn't go so far as to say that Trump hasn't 'hurt' the United States. All Presidents can and do have some sort of affect on the country, both good and bad. There's a good chance that his trade war could make things worse economically and make the next recession longer and deeper. And I do think he's hurt our standing internationally, but that this will be a short lived problem as once another more rational leader takes his place we'll quickly smooth over the rather artificial differences Trump has created.

I do think you are underestimating the stranglehold Trump has on the Republicans. Mitch McConnell is his lap dog, and won't put a single piece of legislation on the Senate floor unless he thinks Trump will approve it. Other R's are similarly paralyzed by Trump's strong support amongst their constituents. Trump still polls well over 80% amongst Republicans. You'll never get an honest response from the leader of either party when they're polling that strong of support within their party.

He is not going to have a Hitler-like effect on this nation or the extreme effect that Hawktawk outlines. He's just some reality TV star with a cult of personality that seems to overlook all his annoying BS.

Trade war won't lengthen anything. The bigger problem is the leverage worldwide. Trade war will end with Trump and be a blip on the radar. Bigger problem will be the insane amount of leverage from the worldwide super low interest rates building a massive equity bubble and huge amounts of consumer and commercial credit that will not be affordable in a downturn. Then they bubble will go pop and they'll start the process all over again because they can't allow the interest rates to rise to high due to the massive debt most nations have now to sustain their unsustainable government services.

[RiverDog]

He is not going to have a Hitler-like effect on this nation or the extreme effect that Hawktawk outlines. He's just some reality TV star with a cult of personality that seems to overlook all his annoying BS.

There's something weird about Trump's relationship with his constituents. Even though he's a polar opposite from them in almost every way except for race and age, ie super rich from birth, jet set lifestyle, Manhattan real estate mogul, Hollywood personality vs. a mid American farmer or factory worker with dirt under his fingernails, his supporters have internalized the attacks on Trump and see themselves as the object of the liberal left's attempt to assign everything bad in this world to "angry white males", made worse when you have people like HRC referring to Trump supporters as "undesirables" and idiots like the SF city council passing a resolution calling the NRA a domestic terrorist group. It's garbage like that which creates an environment where a person like Trump can thrive.

Trade war won't lengthen anything. The bigger problem is the leverage worldwide. Trade war will end with Trump and be a blip on the radar. Bigger problem will be the insane amount of leverage from the worldwide super low interest rates building a massive equity bubble and huge amounts of consumer and commercial credit that will not be affordable in a downturn. Then they bubble will go pop and they'll start the process all over again because they can't allow the interest rates to rise to high due to the massive debt most nations have now to sustain their unsustainable government services.

The trade war increases prices and makes consumers less likely to spend. It's essentially a tax that anyone that buys those goods affected by the tariffs pays in the form of higher prices. He's certainly pushing China's economy towards collapse, and they're more over leveraged than we are. China represents 20% of the world GDP. Our economies are intertwined. By pushing China towards economic collapse, Trump is cutting off his nose to spite his face as it's going to push the global economy, including the US economy, towards a recession.

The obvious costs (of tariffs) are twofold. First, consumers of the products sold by the protected industry (for example, steel and aluminum) must pay a higher price thanks to the tariffs. Second, jobs and profits are lost in the rest of the economy because the higher prices induced by the tariffs leave less money to be spent on everything else.

These costs have been much discussed during the recent ramp up in trade disputes and tariff levying. What has been mostly overlooked is a hidden cost of tariffs: slower economic growth.

At any given time, our economy has a certain amount of capital to invest in productive activities. Tariffs protect uncompetitive businesses from shrinking or going bankrupt. Because these protected industries are larger with the tariffs than without them, more capital is trapped in those low-growth or shrinking sectors of the economy benefitting from tariffs. That lowers the average return on capital.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffreydor ... b45f8c19f2

But you're right about being over leveraged. Bankruptcies in the US were up 5% in July. And that idiot Trump is putting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates and encourage even more borrowing.

[Hawktawk]

At a briefing on Dorian yesterday Trump had the acting NSA hold up a storm path chart from the national
Weather service that had clearly been altered with a black sharpie to show the storm impacting Alabama. You cannot make this up. It’s not entertaining or funny having someone this mentally ill as commander in Chief, Chief law enforcement officer etc. hell yes it’s damaging America and perhaps putting us in the most grave danger from our enemies. Impeach or 25th amendment now!!!!

[RiverDog]

At a briefing on Dorian yesterday Trump had the acting NSA hold up a storm path chart from the national
Weather service that had clearly been altered with a black sharpie to show the storm impacting Alabama. You cannot make this up. It’s not entertaining or funny having someone this mentally ill as commander in Chief, Chief law enforcement officer etc. hell yes it’s damaging America and perhaps putting us in the most grave danger from our enemies. Impeach or 25th amendment now!!!!

Yes, that explanation from Trump was pathetic and just shows how incapable he is at taking responsibility for the things he says. After Trump spoke, the NWS immediately issued a statement saying that Alabama was not considered to be at risk for fear of his misinformation causing panic, so I don't care how many charts he produces, it's undeniable that he had his head up his a$$. But he's shown his ignorance and dishonesty so often and over such a large array of subjects that most of us have become callous to them. It's so common for him to lie then cover his tracks that it's not even newsworthy anymore. Even Idahawkman seems to have tired at the impossible task of defending him.

It's unlikely for the House to take up an impeachment charge in an election year and even if they did, it would never get 20 R votes in the Senate to remove him from office. The 25th is an even more unlikely scenario as it would require the majority of his hand picked cabinet to turn on him.

It's best if you consider that prayer I offered about being serene over the things of which you have no control. Unless some tragedy befalls him, Trump is serving out his term. Period. For our own sake, we need to accept that truth as if it were written in stone.

[Aseahawkfan]

There's something weird about Trump's relationship with his constituents. Even though he's a polar opposite from them in almost every way except for race and age, ie super rich from birth, jet set lifestyle, Manhattan real estate mogul, Hollywood personality vs. a mid American farmer or factory worker with dirt under his fingernails, his supporters have internalized the attacks on Trump and see themselves as the object of the liberal left's attempt to assign everything bad in this world to "angry white males", made worse when you have people like HRC referring to Trump supporters as "undesirables" and idiots like the SF city council passing a resolution calling the NRA a domestic terrorist group. It's garbage like that which creates an environment where a person like Trump can thrive.

That part is not surprising. Both sides seem to have a group that mindlessly supports their candidate and ideology regardless of the idiocy coming out of their mouths or the bad economics of the policy.

The trade war increases prices and makes consumers less likely to spend. It's essentially a tax that anyone that buys those goods affected by the tariffs pays in the form of higher prices. He's certainly pushing China's economy towards collapse, and they're more over leveraged than we are. China represents 20% of the world GDP. Our economies are intertwined. By pushing China towards economic collapse, Trump is cutting off his nose to spite his face as it's going to push the global economy, including the US economy, towards a recession.

The obvious costs (of tariffs) are twofold. First, consumers of the products sold by the protected industry (for example, steel and aluminum) must pay a higher price thanks to the tariffs. Second, jobs and profits are lost in the rest of the economy because the higher prices induced by the tariffs leave less money to be spent on everything else.

These costs have been much discussed during the recent ramp up in trade disputes and tariff levying. What has been mostly overlooked is a hidden cost of tariffs: slower economic growth.

At any given time, our economy has a certain amount of capital to invest in productive activities. Tariffs protect uncompetitive businesses from shrinking or going bankrupt. Because these protected industries are larger with the tariffs than without them, more capital is trapped in those low-growth or shrinking sectors of the economy benefitting from tariffs. That lowers the average return on capital.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffreydor ... b45f8c19f2

But you're right about being over leveraged. Bankruptcies in the US were up 5% in July. And that idiot Trump is putting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates and encourage even more borrowing.

In a healthy economy, you can sustain and recover from this. In an overly leveraged economy, this causes serious problems. When you have a large group of people that have leveraged future earnings for a current or past produced asset, then they can't pay to keep those assets you will see another massive wealth transfer of depressed assets to those with the cash to buy them again and a boost in bankruptcies. Then these same folks will do it all over over again. The people with the money to take advantage of this trash economic policy will benefit the most.

The government also needs low interest rates due to their massive debt. If the interest rates rise, the government can't sustain itself on debt because the interest payments take up a larger portion of spending. All these "The deficit and national debt don't matter" idiots who have no idea how interest rates work will someday find out that they do matter and it is tied to our national debt as well. Low interest rates allow the government to keep borrowing at a far cheaper rate and thus keep the interest payment on the national debt lower. We have an economic system heading for an awful end because none of these politicians will do what they need to do because no one wants to lose votes or power and the American people are not hopelessly addicted to government money. Just be glad you'll likely be dead before the economic consequences of this awful policy come to a head. If anything causes a giant world war, it will be the collapse of this idiot debt driven economic policy if suddenly people can't pay back trillions of dollars to foreign borrowers.

[RiverDog]

I swear, some people just can't think independently. They take a position on a subject based on their very general liberal or conservative ideology regardless of its merits.

I agree with your thoughts on economics, but the point of my argument is that tariffs do hurt an economy, healthy or otherwise, the only question being to what degree. Idahawk and the Trumpies are trying to tell us that they have no effect AT ALL. It's no different than raising taxes. You're taking money out of the hands of the consumer and putting it into the government's coffer. They also support outdated, poorly managed companies by giving them a competitive advantage. We're better off letting those industries go extinct, let China or India make our raw materials for us, and dedicate our limited investment capital to an industry that can sustain itself without the benefit of tariffs.

That's been my big problem with Trump's tariffs, that he's supporting the wrong industries. There's not that many jobs to be gained in steel and aluminum and he's hurting other companies that depend on a cheap source of raw materials to maintain their competitive advantage. Besides, we don't have a problem with a lack of jobs.

[Aseahawkfan]

I swear, some people just can't think independently. They take a position on a subject based on their very general liberal or conservative ideology regardless of its merits.

I agree with your thoughts on economics, but the point of my argument is that tariffs do hurt an economy, healthy or otherwise, the only question being to what degree. Idahawk and the Trumpies are trying to tell us that they have no effect AT ALL. It's no different than raising taxes. You're taking money out of the hands of the consumer and putting it into the government's coffer. They also support outdated, poorly managed companies by giving them a competitive advantage. We're better off letting those industries go extinct, let China or India make our raw materials for us, and dedicate our limited investment capital to an industry that can sustain itself without the benefit of tariffs.

That's been my big problem with Trump's tariffs, that he's supporting the wrong industries. There's not that many jobs to be gained in steel and aluminum and he's hurting other companies that depend on a cheap source of raw materials to maintain their competitive advantage. Besides, we don't have a problem with a lack of jobs.

First, the problem I am encouraging you to take a look at is a time bomb. It requires an understanding of economics that you don't seem to be grasping as you focus on a short-term issue like tariffs.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-debt-is-now-breaching-levels-last-reached-during-the-2008-financial-crisis-2019-06-19 It's got that roaring twenties, the good times will never end feel to it.

These tariffs will last as long as Trump. The money being shunted into government coffers might even be helpful given the government shortfalls. We have major spending shortfalls not being covered by the moderate increase in economic growth and wages. You could also argue that the farmers being damaged by tariffs are also outdated and inefficient. American steel is not outdated and inefficient, it is more a matter of wage levels being much higher in America. It is much more cost efficient from a labor standpoint to process materials in other nations other than maintaining a large enough industry to ramp up for national security reasons. Our technology or efficiency has nothing to with why manufacturing is gone from Western nations. It's almost purely based on the cost of labor in foreign nations with corporations looking to exploit weaker labor laws and much lower wages to produce at a much lower cost.

We have a far longer term, more dangerous issue with the debt that is ticking away. You just don't get how bad this is and won't get it until it hits. The low interest rates with the building equity bubble and slowing growth is the same kind of economic disaster recipe that has occurred multiple times in the last twenty years. You are focused on a tariff issue that is a short-term problem that isn't even close to the danger of the growing leverage bubble. It's in fact a minor blip on the radar compared to the leveraging going on right now.

I'm focused on the leverage problem because its effect on the economy far exceeds any damage or benefit based on tariffs. It's going to hit us hard again and create another immense wealth transfer like we've been seeing. You don't follow financial information like I do thus your focus on a popular political topic like tariffs that ties into economics. I can't spend much time focusing on a short-term, easily fixed problem like tariffs while I'm watching a level of leverage building up that is going to hammer not only America, but the world economy. World interest rates are so low there is literally nowhere else to earn much of a return other than equities or property. This has been done to forestall recession. If there is a recession, the collapse will be very, very bad given there is not much room to further lower interest rates.

If you want to focus on these short-term, easily fixed tariffs, have at it. I'm going to continue to watch the leverage situation. I have to protect my money. The bubble and collapse with this much leverage building is not going to be pretty. I do not want to lose that much money. I expect to see another housing and equity collapse when this bubble pops. I can only hope it won't be as bad as 2008, but given the entire world is leveraged I don't see how it can be better.

Just remember what I told you about the leverage issue while you were worrying about short-term tariffs. And protect as much of your retirement assets as possible because I can't be sure how bad the next downturn will be. I think it will likely be a huge market hit and another property collapse, but hard to say.

[RiverDog]

I am not "worried" or preoccupied with the tariffs effect on the economy, and for the umpteenth time, I'm agreeing with you with the problem of being overleveraged. It's not just a US problem, other countries, China in particular, are overleveraged as well. It was one of the big reasons for the housing crash back in 2009. People were over extended, were refinancing their homes to lower their payments, and when the market crashed and real estate plummeted, it caused them to go underwater on their loans, owing more on their house than it was worth. I saw a factoid the other day that bankruptcies were up 5% in July. It's a very real problem and you're right to point it out.

There are other tangible indicators that the economy is heading for a major slowdown if not a recession. The bond market has fallen rapidly, an indication that investors are worried and are looking for a hiding place by buying bonds. Transportation activity is down, with freight shipments declining by some 6% in one month. I'm not blaming Trump or his tariffs as most of this is part of a normal business cycle, but his trade war has not helped and his policies have added uncertainty to the markets, causing many to pull back, which helps explain the rush to buy bonds.

My former employer is a good example. They had plans to build a processing plant in China. It wouldn't have taken a single job from any US operation as they would have been carving out a new market. But due to the political/economic situation, they've put a hold on their plans.