Could Hawks Trade for Clowney?

[RiverDog]

A friend of mine with a pretty fair record of predicting trades was thinking a few weeks ago that the Hawks might snare Jadeveon Clowney. Trade rumors are beginning to circulate:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/284 ... peculation

Obviously we have a need for an edge rusher, but I personally don't believe it will happen. It seems counter productive to trade Frank Clark because we were unwilling to pay him then take on a contract that's bound to exceed Clark's and have to give up some high draft picks/players.

Comments?

[NorthHawk]

If they are going to, then this should be the year with all of the picks we have.
I put it at a 50/50 as JS has in the past made some big moves.

I agree with you about the $$ cost, and Clowney has an injury history, but he can create pressure.
It's more of a gamble than I would be willing to take, but I don't run an NFL franchise.

[c_hawkbob]

I gotta think this one's too good to be true.

Otherwise I could get my hopes up and all.

[NorthHawk]

Some articles suggest they want a LT in return.
I suspect we would have to give up a bunch of picks whereby the Texans could
then trade in exchange for a serviceable LT. Bill O'Brien is acting GM along with his HC duties
so a good GM might be able to wrangle a good deal for him. Washington is having problems
with Trent Williams, so that's a likely trade partner.
It would be funny if we traded Duane Brown for him... Not going to happen, nor should it, I know.

[RiverDog]

If they are going to, then this should be the year with all of the picks we have.
I put it at a 50/50 as JS has in the past made some big moves.

I agree with you about the $$ cost, and Clowney has an injury history, but he can create pressure.
It's more of a gamble than I would be willing to take, but I don't run an NFL franchise.

The Clark trade netted us a 1st and 2nd rounder, and Clowney has a lot more feathers in his cap as he was a #1 overall pick and has been to 3 Pro Bowls and was All Pro once, plus he's only 26, so one has to think that we'd be forking over 2-#1's at a minimum, probably that plus a player. Add to that it would hugely complicate our salary structure as he'll be asking in the neighborhood of $25M/season or more.

Considering those facts, I just don't see it happening.

[mykc14]

The Clark trade netted us a 1st and 2nd rounder, and Clowney has a lot more feathers in his cap as he was a #1 overall pick and has been to 3 Pro Bowls and was All Pro once, plus he's only 26, so one has to think that we'd be forking over 2-#1's at a minimum, probably that plus a player. Add to that it would hugely complicate our salary structure as he'll be asking in the neighborhood of $25M/season or more.

Considering those facts, I just don't see it happening.

Although Clowney is the better player his trade value may actually be less than Clark’s, because we are so close to the start of the season. He can’t sign a long term deal so a team has to know that he may only be a 1 year rental, although he could be F-Tagged again after next year. Also, because teams have filled out their rosters since April there simply aren’t as many teams that could make that trade. I know people are saying the Redskins might be in play because of the Trent Williams situation- which could be true, but then the Texans would be in a situation where they would have to look at paying Trent Williams 17 mil/year. 2 years ago they weren’t willing to pay D’Wayne Brown 10 mil/year. Talk about admitting a huge mistake. I wouldn’t be shocked if they did it as they have a lot of cap space, but it would certainly mark a change in philosophy.


An interesting aspect of this is that Clowney was tagged as an OLB and only carries a 15 mil cap hit compared to the 17 mil Clark would have got. If the Hawks could get him for ‘only’ a first rounder that would be pretty impressive... it would be like they got Clowney, 2 million in cap space, and a 2nd Rounder for Clark...

[NorthHawk]

Although Clowney is the better player his trade value may actually be less than Clark’s, because we are so close to the start of the season. He can’t sign a long term deal so a team has to know that he may only be a 1 year rental, although he could be F-Tagged again after next year. Also, because teams have filled out their rosters since April there simply aren’t as many teams that could make that trade. I know people are saying the Redskins might be in play because of the Trent Williams situation- which could be true, but then the Texans would be in a situation where they would have to look at paying Trent Williams 17 mil/year. 2 years ago they weren’t willing to pay D’Wayne Brown 10 mil/year. Talk about admitting a huge mistake. I wouldn’t be shocked if they did it as they have a lot of cap space, but it would certainly mark a change in philosophy.

You make some interesting points, mykc14.
The Texans by leaving it so late have lost a lot of leverage.
Perhaps we could trade away our 1st pick or less as we still have 2 2nds and more.
As well, the Texans could then trade that pick or theirs, I suppose for Williams if they think they want to pay that amount.
The danger for us is Clowney leaving next year like Richardson did or having to Tag him to get a 2nd year and if he didn't sign
he would become our headache. That means less compensation is warranted.
He is only 26, so he hasn't yet hit his prime so it might be worthwhile.
At least he's a known quantity in the NFL rather than a draft pick who may or may not be able to play at a high level even if
a 1st round selection.

[obiken]

No, way TOO expensive, plus if they were not worried about the cap they would have signed Clark. Moreover, TOO many injury problems, the guy cannot stay on the field. IF he cannot create a one-two punch with Watt, how is he going to better with us?

[jshawaii22]

That would be one of the dumbest trades we could make. JMHO. We let Clark go because we couldn't afford him and now we would try to trade for Clowny who would either play one year and leave or cost us more then Clark would of.

[RiverDog]

That would be one of the dumbest trades we could make. JMHO. We let Clark go because we couldn't afford him and now we would try to trade for Clowny who would either play one year and leave or cost us more then Clark would of.

Exactly!

It just wouldn't make sense to trade a #1 pick for a first round rental (and I have my doubts that we could get him that cheap) or end up signing him to a long term deal that would exceed what we would have paid Clark, who we let go essentially because we determined that we couldn't, or didn't want to, pay top dollar to our QB, MLB, and an edge rusher.

It will be interesting to see how many of these high profile player-for-pick(s) trades works out for the team that gets the player. There's a bunch of them lately, including Mack and the Bears, Cooper and the Cowboys, OJB and the Browns, and the year before, we had the Jimmy G./Niners deal. We've had mixed results. The Harvin trade was a big belly flop, the Graham trade a disappointment, but the Brown trade seems to be working.

[NorthHawk]

The difference is we were up against the Cap wall THIS YEAR with Clark, but won't be next year where we may have as much as $50 million in Cap space.
Since we can't sign him to a long term contract until after the season, then he would be on his current contract numbers and Cap hit.

[RiverDog]

The difference is we were up against the Cap wall THIS YEAR with Clark, but won't be next year where we may have as much as $50 million in Cap space.
Since we can't sign him to a long term contract until after the season, then he would be on his current contract numbers and Cap hit.

The problem then becomes what do we have to give up for that one year? A first rounder?

Toss in Clowney's injury history and that's one heck of a risk for a one year rental. According to this site, Clowney has a 55.5% chance of getting injured in 2019:

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/playe ... owney/6932

[NorthHawk]

We or any team won't give up as much because of his contract status than if he was signed long term and that's
the error on the Texans. We might be able to take advantage of that.

[obiken]

I agree River, my vote is still no. We are better off to go with a bunch of enthused Pete guys running around trying to make plays.

[RiverDog]

We or any team won't give up as much because of his contract status than if he was signed long term and that's
the error on the Texans. We might be able to take advantage of that.

True, but on the other hand, there could be other teams bidding for his services. There's a lot of teams that are a player or two away from the SB that might want to push all their chips to the center of the table. That could run up the price.

[NorthHawk]

I'm sure other teams will be in the mix. It's expected, but they also know the risks and in all probability not
give up a lot of draft capital or players either. As well, not all teams that are a few players away from
contending can absorb his current contract of about $13 million this year.
I think there are only a few teams that are in a position to add him.

[RiverDog]

I'm sure other teams will be in the mix. It's expected, but they also know the risks and in all probability not
give up a lot of draft capital or players either. As well, not all teams that are a few players away from
contending can absorb his current contract of about $13 million this year.
I think there are only a few teams that are in a position to add him.

I was thinking Colts, although it would be unlikely that they'd do an interdivision trade. But they have a ton of cap space and 2-2nd rounders in 2020. Eagles could be in that mix as well, and the Browns are fancying themselves as a dark horse SB contender. Both have sufficient cap space.

[NorthHawk]

All 3 of those teams expect to be drafting lower than Seattle, if those that predict records are correct, so an
equivalent round draft pick or picks might give us an edge.
We'll see how it ends up - if we are even interested.

[RiverDog]

All 3 of those teams expect to be drafting lower than Seattle, if those that predict records are correct, so an
equivalent round draft pick or picks might give us an edge.
We'll see how it ends up - if we are even interested.

My assumption was that it would be teams that think of themselves as being a player or two away from the SB. For example, the Redskins and Dolphins probably wouldn't be interested in spending a 1st round pick on a rent-a-player deal.

It's all pure speculation. There's not even a hint of a rumor coming out of Houston that they're thinking of trading Clowney.

[idhawkman]

Yeah, I don't see us paying for him especially if we were not willing to pay for Clark.

[NorthHawk]

Again, from a contract perspective it's apples and oranges.
We have a lot of Cap space next year but not this year and Clark wanted to be paid this year.
Clowney can't renegotiate his current deal even if traded until after the season when he becomes a FA
(which is a sticking point for any team offering the Texans a lot of capital for him).

Some people think he's a better player than Clark. It would remain to be seen if he would be more
effective than Clark in our Defense or not.

I'm sure JS is checking the requirements for a deal, but I'm not sure how much interest he has or if
he thinks it would be too much of a gamble. Maybe he's thinking of waiting until the end of the year
to make a FA offer for him.

[Oly]

Perhaps I don't understand the rules about compensatory picks, but if we got Clowney as a one-year rental and he left in free agency for a gajillion dollars, wouldn't we get a 3rd round comp pick? If so, what would we think about swapping a 2nd for a pick at the end of the 3rd as the price for a Clowney rental? That doesn't seem so terrible to me, if he performs at his peak. I think giving up a 1st is too steep, but a 2nd + a Day 3 pick would be fine by me.

[RiverDog]

Perhaps I don't understand the rules about compensatory picks, but if we got Clowney as a one-year rental and he left in free agency for a gajillion dollars, wouldn't we get a 3rd round comp pick? If so, what would we think about swapping a 2nd for a pick at the end of the 3rd as the price for a Clowney rental? That doesn't seem so terrible to me, if he performs at his peak. I think giving up a 1st is too steep, but a 2nd + a Day 3 pick would be fine by me.

Wow, that's a great question, Oly!

It's pretty hard to research the procedures for comp. picks as it's a secret agreement between the league and the players union, and I'm not sure if a trade where a player is on the team for less than 6 months and lost to free agency would earn that team a comp. pick or not.

Perhaps someone with a little more knowledge can weigh in. I might just run that past a couple friends of mine and see what they say.

[NorthHawk]

For some reason I think the Pats did something similar to this scenario and got a
comp pick for him. It would seem to be a legitimate way to mitigate risk and if we did give up a 3rd, we might get one back as a comp. We would not recover other draft capital though.

I read a comment that the Steelers got a 3rd and 5th for Antonio Brown who many think is a top 5 WR and was
on the outs with mgmt, so there’s some similarities with Clowney. But Brown is 31 years old and Clowney is only
26.

I’m really wrestling with how much compensation Clowney should command. I don’t think teams will give
up a whole lot without being able to guarantee he will be signed long term.

[RiverDog]

Here's an article from our old friend Jim Moore regarding the topic we've been discussing:

http://sports.mynorthwest.com/684935/mo ... JXgsxxYDog

Among other scenarios, Moore seems to think that all it would take would be Ifedi and a 4th rounder, of which I'd jump on like a chicken on a June bug. He also thinks that without a player, it might cost us a 2nd rounder, of which we have two in 2020, which I'd also be good with.

So we'll see. Perhaps a trade isn't as far fetched as I was assuming.

[NorthHawk]

Geez, RD. Do you ever sleep?

I would give up a 2nd without a doubt, but I wouldn't give up Ifedi. There aren't many Tackles (LT or RT) around that are available and any good.
Besides, they need a Left Tackle, and Ifedi is a Right Tackle, so he doesn't fill their needs.

[RiverDog]

Geez, RD. Do you ever sleep?

Hehe. Yes, I sleep. I'm an early riser. I got to bed last night at about 8:30pm and was up at around 3am. I have a dog that demands a daily walk and in order to avoid the E. Washington heat, I head out for our hour long stroll around 6am-7am.

[NorthHawk]

I thought that maybe after working shift work, your sleep schedule is in disarray.

Back to Clowney and the DL, it would seem to me that if the pass rush is ineffective against the Vikings we might see
some action on the trade front. There's only a few weeks until the start of the season.

[RiverDog]

I thought that maybe after working shift work, your sleep schedule is in disarray.

I've been retired for over a year and haven't worked since December of 2017. But thanks for your concern. It's always nice to be associated with people that actually have to work for a living!

Back to Clowney and the DL, it would seem to me that if the pass rush is ineffective against the Vikings we might see some action on the trade front. There's only a few weeks until the start of the season.

I'm not sure how much difference a preseason game would make to Pete/JS thinking, but if it were me, I'd at least take a flier even if we have a 10-sack game tomorrow. If we were able to snag Clowney, and if Ziggy is healthy and performs to the top of his ability (two huge 'if's' for sure), a perceived weakness all of a sudden becomes one of the more formidable pass rushes in the league.

[mykc14]

Perhaps I don't understand the rules about compensatory picks, but if we got Clowney as a one-year rental and he left in free agency for a gajillion dollars, wouldn't we get a 3rd round comp pick? If so, what would we think about swapping a 2nd for a pick at the end of the 3rd as the price for a Clowney rental? That doesn't seem so terrible to me, if he performs at his peak. I think giving up a 1st is too steep, but a 2nd + a Day 3 pick would be fine by me.

Yes theoretically we would get a third for him if he signed elsewhere for a lot of money (the guaranteed money is what counts for comp picks, I think). The other part of the equation is the FA that we sign. If he signs elsewhere but we sign other somebody else (or a few guys) for the same amount then that would conceal out Clowney. You would also have to look at other FA that we lost and what they signed for. So although we probably would get a 3rd it isn’t guaranteed.

[Feez]

After watching 3/4 of the preseason games I think a trade of some kind is coming. I just dont see them pressuring good QBs enough with the blitzes they've shown so far. We have a trade history with the Texans and i have heard duane brown is a huge fan of Clowney so that could help make the move happen. Another trade I'd love to see is with the Jags for yannick Ngakoue. That would immediately fix our problem but it would be a short term fix since he will want to get paid soon.

[RiverDog]

According to this...

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nfl/ja ... ar-AAGiHFb

..the Texans will be trading Clowney in 24-48 hours.

I would have to think that we'd be front and center in any kind of trade talks, for several reasons: The preseason has confirmed that we have a huge need for an edge rusher, we can afford to serve up a starting quality offensive tackle (Ifedi or Fant), we have the cap room this season, we have plenty of draft choices at our disposal, and we are a team that sees themselves as being a player or two away from being a legitimate SB contender.

We have a history with the Texans and they play in a different conference. John Schneider isn't afraid to pull the trigger on trades. Lots of reasons to believe a trade will happen and not many that speak against it.

[jshawaii22]

According to this...

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nfl/ja ... ar-AAGiHFb

..the Texans will be trading Clowney in 24-48 hours.

I would have to think that we'd be front and center in any kind of trade talks, for several reasons: The preseason has confirmed that we have a huge need for an edge rusher, we can afford to serve up a starting quality offensive tackle (Ifedi or Fant), we have the cap room this season, we have plenty of draft choices at our disposal, and we are a team that sees themselves as being a player or two away from being a legitimate SB contender.

We have a history with the Texans and they play in a different conference. John Schneider isn't afraid to pull the trigger on trades. Lots of reasons to believe a trade will happen and not many that speak against it.

NO NO NO NO NOOOOOOOOOOOOO don't do it Schneider. It'll cost us a #1 and/or one of the FINALLY GOOD Oline??? For a one-year rental? NO!
I'll bet it's the Pats. let them do the trade for a one year, injury prone, not always good, had one great play in college, over-drafted, veteran DE rental.

We haven't even seem our #1 pick or Ziggy on the field and both should be back soon.

[RiverDog]

NO NO NO NO NOOOOOOOOOOOOO don't do it Schneider. It'll cost us a #1 and/or one of the FINALLY GOOD Oline??? For a one-year rental? NO!
I'll bet it's the Pats. let them do the trade for a one year, injury prone, not always good, had one great play in college, over-drafted, veteran DE rental.

We haven't even seem our #1 pick or Ziggy on the field and both should be back soon.

Who said it was going to cost us a #1? Clowney is not under contract, the Texans slapped the FT on him and unlike our situation with Clark, the season is about to begin. The Texans don't have that much leverage. Speculation is that it could be as cheap as a 3rd plus a player.

[NorthHawk]

It could be expanded to a 2 year rental if that came to pass, and he would be a big addition
to our Defense, but I think the obvious trade partner is Washington who are in the same spot as
the Texans with their LT Williams.

He could be a good fit on our DL as he’s a natural 4-3 Lineman, but has played in a 3-4 which
we often run in a hybrid form. He’s also a disruptor on opposing OLs which is what we need.
But I doubt he ends up here.

[RiverDog]

It could be expanded to a 2 year rental if that came to pass, and he would be a big addition to our Defense, but I think the obvious trade partner is Washington who are in the same spot as the Texans with their LT Williams.

Why would the Redskins be interested in a one year rental? Even that moonbat Dan Snyder has to admit that they aren't a player or two away from a Super Bowl. They have a lot more holes to fill besides an edge rusher. If they're truly interested, why not wait a year and pick him up in free agency and save their draft picks? Besides, if you're Clowney, who would you rather play for, Jay Gruden in Washington or Pete Carroll in Seattle?

[NorthHawk]

They get rid of Williams and get a disruptive DLineman.
I see it as a 1 for 1 trade of disgruntled players who might want to stay in a new situation.

[jshawaii22]

OK River -- I'd probably go for this one: Clowney for Penny and a 4th or 5th round pick. Houston just lost their #1 back for the season. However, Clowney doesn't have to sign his offer sheet if he doesn't like the trade. He has some control, so he wants a team that will give him a long-term contract, which probably isn't the Hawks.

[RiverDog]

OK River -- I'd probably go for this one: Clowney for Penny and a 4th or 5th round pick. Houston just lost their #1 back for the season. However, Clowney doesn't have to sign his offer sheet if he doesn't like the trade. He has some control, so he wants a team that will give him a long-term contract, which probably isn't the Hawks.

I could be talked into that proposal, too. We have a lot of picks in the 2020 draft, so I have a hard time believing that Schneider won't make some sort of a trade before the end of the trading deadline.

The reason Clowney has some control over where he's traded is exactly why I believe that he won't go to a non contending team with an offensive orientated head coach like the Redskins.

[RiverDog]

I can't figure out how to post the link, but I saw a tweet about the Texans preparing to trade Clowney to either the Bills or Seahawks. It was from a source called profootballchase. Not sure how credible it is, but here's a copy and paste:

UPDATE: The Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills have expressed interest in trading for Texans OLB Jadeveon Clowney, per Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network.

The Miami Dolphins have consistently been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Clowney, but it appears two other suitors have emerged.

Pauline hears that Seattle and Buffalo have recently inquired about trading for Clowney.

Pauline mentions Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny and Bills RB LeSean McCoy as players that would likely be included in a trade for Clowney, considering Houston’s need for a running back after Lamar Miller’s injury.

The trade rumors seem to be heating up. They're making it sound like there's little chance that Clowney will play for the Texans again and that he'll be traded before the start of the regular season.