Biden's Gaffes

[RiverDog]

I saw an interesting discussion yesterday with the subject being Joe Biden's blunders and bone headedness. They're truly amazing. Some of them have racist undertones, some reveal a lack of historical perspective, and others are honest, comical mistakes. Here's just a sampling:

A racist one. Biden on Barak Obama: "I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that's a storybook, man."

A Trumpian type lack of historical perspective, otherwise known as head-up-arse. Biden on the 1929 stock market crash: "When the stock market crashed, Franklin D. Roosevelt got on the television and didn't just talk about the, you know, the princes of greed. He said, 'Look, here's what happened.'" (The crash occurred on Herbert Hoover's watch as Roosevelt wasn't elected until 1932 and the first televised presidential speech wasn't until 1947).

A comical one: "Look, John's last-minute economic plan does nothing to tackle the number-one job facing the middle class, and it happens to be, as Barack says, a three-letter word: jobs. J-O-B-S, jobs", and in Iowa last week, Biden said this: We choose unity over division. We choose science over fiction,” he said. “We choose truth over facts”

And there are some that are nothing but a bold faced lie: “those kids in Parkland came up to see me when I was vice president.” (The Parkland shooting occurred in 2018, over a year after Obama/Biden left office)

The gaffes pale in comparison to the types of gaffes Trump makes on a daily basis, but it does set Democrats up for criticism of the pot calling the kettle black, particularly on some of the ones that suggest a subtle racism/sexism or the ones that hurt his credibility as an honest individual.

Comments?

[idhawkman]

You forgot when he said you can't walk into a convenience store without having an Indian accent.

He also said "God Rest her soul" when talking about a local politician but it was the politician's father that had passed.

He also wanted to introduce a local politician and said "Stand up Chuck!" The politician was wheelchair bound.

What Biden can't do is think on his feet. If he has a script, he can read it but if he is asked something out of the box he stammers and stutters, etc. I guarantee you that Trump will hit him hard on his kids $1.5B funding of his hedge fund by the Chinese and the hundreds of Millions his son got from the Ukraine while Biden was holding up a $1B grant to the Ukrainian Govt. until their AG quit looking into his son's businesses. He demanded that they fire that prosecutor which the Ukraine finally caved and did so that they could get the $1B which was to help them fight the Russians.

"IF" anyone here really thinks Biden can win the presidency, they are not looking deep enough into Biden.

My personal belief is that the eventual democrat nominee for POTUS 2020 hasn't even declared yet. NONE of the declared 26 have a snowball's chance and the dems know this at their party HQs.

[RiverDog]

What Biden can't do is think on his feet. If he has a script, he can read it but if he is asked something out of the box he stammers and stutters, etc.

No different than DJT, who misstates facts and makes gaffes at an even higher rate than Biden. The two of them combined make a great case for placing an age limit (70?) on a POTUS.

My personal belief is that the eventual democrat nominee for POTUS 2020 hasn't even declared yet.

So which Dem is it that you have in mind? Is this another one of your predictions?

NONE of the declared 26 have a snowball's chance and the dems know this at their party HQs.

A number of polls show several Dems beating Trump in a head-to-head matchup, including in some key swing states, so I'd rate that as a tad bit higher than a snowball's chance in hell, especially when we're still over 14 months from the election.

No incumbent President, even Roosevelt during WW2, has had that slam dunk of a reelection prospect over a year out, not to mention one that barely won his first term, and you can sit there with a straight face and tell us that you think that the DNC knows they've already lost the election?

And you wonder why others discount your opinions as being extremely biased and lacking credibility. Jeezus.

[Aseahawkfan]

Trump and Biden are apparently the best we can field at the moment for presidential candidates with the best chance to win. We don't produce quality leaders any longer. Maybe the age of social media has made anyone with half a brain run from being president.

[RiverDog]

Trump and Biden are apparently the best we can field at the moment for presidential candidates with the best chance to win. We don't produce quality leaders any longer. Maybe the age of social media has made anyone with half a brain run from being president.

Sad, isn't it? I used to hear people complain about being given a choice between Bush 43 and Gore/Kerry. Being given a choice between Trump and Hillary/Biden is 10 times worse.

I used to help immigrants study for citizenship tests. The questions are pretty irrelevant to life in the US and mostly play to the egos of politicians, like asking who their representative in congress is or who their Senators are. Here lately, considering Trump's titanic blunder about airports in the revolutionary war and Biden thinking that FDR gave TV addresses, I've honestly wondered if either one of those dumb arses could pass a citizenship test. Wouldn't that be something? Trump flunking a citizenship test.

[I-5]

I used to help immigrants study for citizenship tests. The questions are pretty irrelevant to life in the US and mostly play to the egos of politicians, like asking who their representative in congress is or who their Senators are.

Good for you, Riv! How many natural born citizens could pass that test.

[RiverDog]

I used to help immigrants study for citizenship tests. The questions are pretty irrelevant to life in the US and mostly play to the egos of politicians, like asking who their representative in congress is or who their Senators are.

Good for you, Riv! How many natural born citizens could pass that test.

One time at my place of employment, I was in a room with 10-12 supervisors and hourly leads, all native born with a HS or GED but no college, and we started talking about this one guy that had passed his citizenship test and I made the comment that I'd bet that they couldn't correctly answer some of the questions. I started asking them a couple of the study questions, and no one knew who our representative in the US Congress was, what the first 10 amendments to the Constitution are called, or what the 3 branches of government are. They were all smart folks with great work ethics and could pass the test if they studied for it, but not if they took the test blind. I considered them to be very typical American adults.

Although I'm a proponent of all Americans knowing that kind of stuff, I don't think it's a good test that would give an indication as to their likely success at assimilating into our society and be contributing law abiding citizens. I'd rather it concentrate on stuff like calling 911, examples of crimes vs. misdemeanors, laws on drugs and underage drinking, what mile post markers on the highway are and how you can use it to report an accident, etc. In my area, of the problems we've had with migrants is that the culture they grow up with in Mexico and Central America doesn't really care about the dangers of drinking and driving. We've seen a higher rate of drinking and driving amongst migrants or guest workers and had some really bad traffic accidents because of it. I'd rather the citizenship test concentrate on more practical matters rather than historical and civics knowledge that 3/4 of the population don't know.

[Aseahawkfan]

I know our senators, but not our reps. I'd have trouble answering that one. I'm not even sure many reps we have. I figure five or six. I guess we have 10. I don't know any of them.

[RiverDog]

I know our senators, but not our reps. I'd have trouble answering that one. I'm not even sure many reps we have. I figure five or six. I guess we have 10. I don't know any of them.

I know my rep by sight and that he's an R but sometimes have a hard time recalling his name, and I know the rep from the other E Washington district that includes Spokane and Walla Walla only because I occasionally see her appearing on the local news. I do know that we have 12 electoral votes and 10 Congressional districts.

My point is that although it's information that all Americans should know, the questions on the citizenship test are completely irrelevant regarding their successful integration into our society, a fact that's proven by so many native born adults that would have a hard time answering those questions. But I do think that most Americans know how to summon emergency help (call 911), that driving under the influence has extreme consequences, and know, or should know, that milepost markers are an aid to determine their location on a highway, know that a quarter is 1/4 of a dollar, etc. That's the type of practical information or questions I would like to see on a citizenship test rather than the civics/history/geography stuff that not a lot of people know anyway.

[idhawkman]

No incumbent President, even Roosevelt during WW2, has had that slam dunk of a reelection prospect over a year out, not to mention one that barely won his first term, and you can sit there with a straight face and tell us that you think that the DNC knows they've already lost the election?

And yet in the years you point out, only 2 incumbents have been beaten and both cases it took a dynamic and historic figure to do so with very high charisma. Reagan and Clinton. Do you see a Reagan or Clinton image in the current field of Dems? In order to beat Trump, the dems will have to recruit a Charismatic challenger and they know it. Watch to see if there is a floor fight for the dem nominee at the Dem convention.

NOTE: Even though you try to put words in my mouth with your "...the DNC knows they've already lost the election" my comment is they know of the 26 declared so far can't win. Clarity of words is a premium with you unfortunately.

And you wonder why others discount your opinions as being extremely biased and lacking credibility. Jeezus.

More of my predictions have come true even some that originally you thought were not.

[idhawkman]

Trump and Biden are apparently the best we can field at the moment for presidential candidates with the best chance to win. We don't produce quality leaders any longer. Maybe the age of social media has made anyone with half a brain run from being president.

I don't think it is social media I think it is more of the politics of personal destruction. What great president in our past could withstand the scrutiny that the dems and MSM have put on this president? A great example of this is demanding the president's tax returns for the sole purpose of trying to "FIND" something they can try and smear him with even if it is an allowed deduction from the laws that they themselves have passed.

[idhawkman]

Good for you, Riv! How many natural born citizens could pass that test.

If you ever watch the man on the street interviews done by Jesse Waters, the Fox and Friends crew, and a host of others on Fox News you'd think maybe 20% if that many. On our college campuses the number would be like 2% at best.

[idhawkman]

Although I'm a proponent of all Americans knowing that kind of stuff, I don't think it's a good test that would give an indication as to their likely success at assimilating into our society and be contributing law abiding citizens.

Well that would depend on your definition of contributing wouldn't it?

I'd rather it concentrate on stuff like calling 911, examples of crimes vs. misdemeanors, laws on drugs and underage drinking, what mile post markers on the highway are and how you can use it to report an accident, etc. In my area, of the problems we've had with migrants is that the culture they grow up with in Mexico and Central America doesn't really care about the dangers of drinking and driving. We've seen a higher rate of drinking and driving amongst migrants or guest workers and had some really bad traffic accidents because of it. I'd rather the citizenship test concentrate on more practical matters rather than historical and civics knowledge that 3/4 of the population don't know.

Wow! Being a citizen and participating in the governance of this country should take a back seat to abiding by laws that are a privilege and not a right? Not everyone who migrates to the US needs a car or even wants a car. I know lots of people who were born in NY and have never left the city and never have a desire to drive. Why would they have to know those laws? Why would they be required to know what a mile marker means? On the other hand, knowing how the government is formed and what branches do what, who to complain to when you think you've been wronged or have a suggestion and what you are actually voting for is not a vain endeavor, it is a responsible act. In order to understand the citizenship test you have to remove yourself from the local issues, factors and environment that you personally live in and take a larger view of the situation.

[Aseahawkfan]

I don't think it is social media I think it is more of the politics of personal destruction. What great president in our past could withstand the scrutiny that the dems and MSM have put on this president? A great example of this is demanding the president's tax returns for the sole purpose of trying to "FIND" something they can try and smear him with even if it is an allowed deduction from the laws that they themselves have passed.

Hmm. When I think back, I don't think any of them. Maybe Truman or Eisenhower, but just maybe. Social media, the Internet, and the 24 hour news cycle is a whole new ballgame of invasiveness. You can manufacture a lie about someone and if enough people hate that person, they will buy into it. I don't think many can withstand that.

[RiverDog]

I don't think it is social media I think it is more of the politics of personal destruction. What great president in our past could withstand the scrutiny that the dems and MSM have put on this president? A great example of this is demanding the president's tax returns for the sole purpose of trying to "FIND" something they can try and smear him with even if it is an allowed deduction from the laws that they themselves have passed.

Hmm. When I think back, I don't think any of them. Maybe Truman or Eisenhower, but just maybe. Social media, the Internet, and the 24 hour news cycle is a whole new ballgame of invasiveness. You can manufacture a lie about someone and if enough people hate that person, they will buy into it. I don't think many can withstand that.

Ike had his skeletons in his closet. He had an ongoing extramarital affair with is driver during WW2. I can vividly remember my uncle, who served in the European theatre, describing how Ike lowered his handicap while banging his driver (golfing terminology) during which the rest of them where hanging their balls out of a C-47 (my uncle was in the 82nd Airborne). My grandpa used to say about Truman that he was nothing but a pimp for Pendergast, and he wasn't even really a pimp, he just went around and collected money from the whorehouses. And Roosevelt? According to my grandpa, he didn't have polio, he had the clap.

Can you imagine how social media would have lit up had it been around in the 40's and 50's?

[idhawkman]

One of the things you are taught when starting or growing an insurrection is to control what people hear and see. If you say something long enough, people will believe it. Take for instance, the first president that ever had a masters degree was labled as "dumb". Many people still believe that but the guy actually had to be pretty smart to figure out how to win not only the first term of his presidency but also the second. How "Dumb" must his opponents have been in order for this dummy to win and out fox them?

[RiverDog]

Here's another history lesson from Donald Trump, this time on Andrew Jackson and the Civil War:

TRUMP: I mean, had Andrew Jackson been a little later, you wouldn't have had the Civil War. He was a very tough person, but he had a big heart, and he was really angry that he saw what was happening with regard to the Civil War. He said, "There's no reason for this." People don't realize, you know, the Civil War, you think about it, why?

The problem is that Old Hickory died in 1845, over 15 years before the Civil War began.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ap-trum ... war-2017-5

Let's hear your spin on that one, Idahawkman.

[Hawktawk]

The bottom line is yes Biden is a gaffe machine and really has been as long as I can remember . And it seems worse as he’s in his mid 70s. But the reason he’s crushing Trump in every poll and even leading or within striking distance in red states is because on his worst day he’s ten times as good as trump on his best day. I’d get carpal tunnel just trying to chronicle the last week in trump world, the lies , erratic behavior, mental illness in full view. It’s no surprise he’s dropped to 39% approval, 79% in his own party and just gained his second primary challenger in joe Walsh yesterday. Biden looks damn good compared to the worst president in my lifetime .

[RiverDog]

The bottom line is yes Biden is a gaffe machine and really has been as long as I can remember . And it seems worse as he’s in his mid 70s. But the reason he’s crushing Trump in every poll and even leading or within striking distance in red states is because on his worst day he’s ten times as good as trump on his best day. I’d get carpal tunnel just trying to chronicle the last week in trump world, the lies , erratic behavior, mental illness in full view. It’s no surprise he’s dropped to 39% approval, 79% in his own party and just gained his second primary challenger in joe Walsh yesterday. Biden looks damn good compared to the worst president in my lifetime .

The other thing about Biden's gaffes is that he always corrects them, even makes fun of himself in doing it. Trump never admits to making a mistake and will twist words/facts in order to fit his gaffe or let his spin machine find a way to rationalize them.

The polls are pretty much meaningless at this point. The Dems have a long, brutal primary race to endure while Trump can just sit back and look presidential. Don't underestimate the advantage of incumbency. Additionally, his approval ratings have remained amazingly flat, never budging more than 5% one way or another. He's stayed in the low to mid 40's his entire presidency. Most people seem to have made up their minds long ago and nothing he can do will change their opinion one way or another.

The ball is completely in the Dem's court. If they nominate Biden or one of the other candidates backs off their liberal agenda, they can flip 8-10 states and beat Trump by 100+ electoral votes. But if they trot out someone like Sanders or Warren, we'll see another down to the wire close election like we had in 2016.

[Hawktawk]

The “look presidential “ thing is where trump is in deep doo doo. He’s incapable of it. Right now it looks like Biden or warren. Sanders is fading. Harris could rise as a farther left but not as far as warren alternative to Biden. Nobody else has a chance and they need to get the hell out ASAP.

[RiverDog]

The “look presidential “ thing is where trump is in deep doo doo. He’s incapable of it.

In your eyes, yes, he's incapable of looking presidential. But all he has to do to stir up his base is to call for an ICE raid or issue an executive order and it will excite guys like Idahawkman. How is Biden, Warren, or Sanders going to motivate their base?

Right now it looks like Biden or warren. Sanders is fading. Harris could rise as a farther left but not as far as warren alternative to Biden. Nobody else has a chance and they need to get the hell out ASAP.

I agree. Jay Inslee finally ended his taxpayer sponsored ego trip. Some of these fruitcakes like Inslee need to do some market research to see what their odds are of winning the nomination or how many people will line up behind a single issue candidate like Inslee before they throw their hat into the ring.

Of the 20+ entries on the Democratic side, the only one I can see besides Biden that isn't a progressive liberal is Michael Bennet (no relation to the football player), Senator from Colorado. But the only way he gets nominated is if something weird happens, like a deadlocked convention looking for a compromise. Otherwise, it's Biden or bust.

[Aseahawkfan]

I agree. Jay Inslee finally ended his taxpayer sponsored ego trip. Some of these fruitcakes like Inslee need to do some market research to see what their odds are of winning the nomination or how many people will line up behind a single issue candidate like Inslee before they throw their hat into the ring.

Of the 20+ entries on the Democratic side, the only one I can see besides Biden that isn't a progressive liberal is Michael Bennet (no relation to the football player), Senator from Colorado. But the only way he gets nominated is if something weird happens, like a deadlocked convention looking for a compromise. Otherwise, it's Biden or bust.

That leftist jackass Inslee would never admit he couldn't win the presidency. He's in that lefist Ocasio-Cortez mold. I can't stand that guy.

I'll wait and see until the real campaigning starts when the Dems choose a candidate. Then they go head to head. Trump one last time going to head to head and focusing heavily on the swing states. He had a lot of energy during the campaign. It's the timing of the gaffes that could be a problem if it comes down to another tight race.

[RiverDog]

That leftist jackass Inslee would never admit he couldn't win the presidency. He's in that lefist Ocasio-Cortez mold. I can't stand that guy.

Neither can I, and not just due to his politics. If he was a viable candidate for POTUS, it wouldn't have been so bad, but this guy never came close to even getting 1% in any poll. At the Iowa State Fair, where attendees were asked to put in a kernel of corn for their favorite Dem candidate, Inslee had 130 kernels out of 66,000 cast. His campaign was nothing more than a taxpayer funded ego trip. The state patrol said that they spent $660,000 just in overtime, while state republicans say the total additional taxpayer cost for his campaign was closer to $4M. When he's asked if his campaign is going to refund the taxpayers, the only thing he can say is that he'll follow the law as its written. Other sitting Governors, Scott Walker, for example, have reimbursed their states for their failed campaign's expenses, but our Gov doesn't even have the guts to answer a simple question with a yes or a no.

I'll wait and see until the real campaigning starts when the Dems choose a candidate. Then they go head to head. Trump one last time going to head to head and focusing heavily on the swing states. He had a lot of energy during the campaign. It's the timing of the gaffes that could be a problem if it comes down to another tight race.

Yea, it doesn't make a lot of sense quoting poll numbers and approval ratings this far out. Hawktalk is being a little over dramatic. But I do get the sense that if Biden wins the nomination, that it won't be nearly as close of an election as it was in 2016. But I didn't think that Trump had a snowball's chance in hell the last time around, so what do I know.

[Aseahawkfan]

Yea, it doesn't make a lot of sense quoting poll numbers and approval ratings this far out. Hawktalk is being a little over dramatic. But I do get the sense that if Biden wins the nomination, that it won't be nearly as close of an election as it was in 2016. But I didn't think that Trump had a snowball's chance in hell the last time around, so what do I know.

Biden has the best chance, especially if Obama throws his weight behind Biden. That could secure him enough of the Americans of African descent vote to push him over the top. Trump now has a huge track record of material to pull from at key times to take him down and remind the public what a jackass he is. I'm sure we'll be seeing key quotes and probably material we haven't even seen yet used against Trump as the election gets closer. Tump has created a bunch of quotes to turn swing voters off that only Trumpbots like Idhawkman overlook.

My money won't love Trump losing, but maybe the Republicans will flip some house seats or maintain the Senate to keep things somewhat static for a while. My money will hate a win by Sanders or Warren though, so that I would never support. Biden would be a decent transitional president from this chaos.

[RiverDog]

Biden has the best chance, especially if Obama throws his weight behind Biden. That could secure him enough of the Americans of African descent vote to push him over the top. Trump now has a huge track record of material to pull from at key times to take him down and remind the public what a jackass he is. I'm sure we'll be seeing key quotes and probably material we haven't even seen yet used against Trump as the election gets closer. Tump has created a bunch of quotes to turn swing voters off that only Trumpbots like Idhawkman overlook.

As a rule, former Presidents don't get involved in politics once they leave office outside of an appearance at a convention. Even George HW Bush didn't make any appearances for his son. But Trump has broken so many rules and has made this process so divisive that it wouldn't surprise me to see Obama actively campaign for Biden.

My money won't love Trump losing, but maybe the Republicans will flip some house seats or maintain the Senate to keep things somewhat static for a while. My money will hate a win by Sanders or Warren though, so that I would never support. Biden would be a decent transitional president from this chaos.

If Biden wins, it's unlikely that the R's will flip the House. As a rule, the party that wins the presidency doesn't lose seats in the House, or at least not get routed like what happens in mid terms. Additionally, the math is against the R's in the Senate as they'll have more seats to defend and the Dems only have to win a couple of those to flip the Senate. That's why it's essential that Biden get the nomination, as if they put up someone like Warren and if she or one of the other moonbats wins, it's almost certain that the Dems will control Congress.

[Aseahawkfan]

If Biden wins, it's unlikely that the R's will flip the House. As a rule, the party that wins the presidency doesn't lose seats in the House, or at least not get routed like what happens in mid terms. Additionally, the math is against the R's in the Senate as they'll have more seats to defend and the Dems only have to win a couple of those to flip the Senate. That's why it's essential that Biden get the nomination, as if they put up someone like Warren and if she or one of the other moonbats wins, it's almost certain that the Dems will control Congress.

If the Dems win the Senate and keep the House, then probably best for Trump to win so he can spend 4 years defending himself from impeachment while Congress focuses on that.

[Hawktawk]

Don’t sleep on the fact there are now 2 primary challengers to trump
In the Republican Party. While his part approval rating had been very high approaching 90% it recently was measured at 79% in a fox poll that also shows him unable to crack 40% vs Biden, warren, Harris or sanders. M
Whatever his R party approval rating is I believe it’s very soft and also it’s a shrinking pool. If anyone had told me 3 years ago I would no longer identify as a republican I’d have said they were high. Now I’m embarrassed I ever was one and will never support another republican who has hasnt repudiated trump as long as I live . I can’t be the only one .
Yet there are plenty of us who don’t want a warren or sanders presidency .

Bill Weld or even Joe Walsh looks damn good to me. When primary voters in the Republican Party see other options with the R next to their name , see their ads eviscerating the mentally ill idiot clown ruining their party let’s see what happens . And remember trump gets more erratic and bizarre by the minute. He’s got another 6 months to continue melting down, possibly in a down economy .

And RD your money really hasn’t looked much better under Trump the last year or so anyway. As I’ve said imagine trump and his clown show in a recession or a true crisis.

[c_hawkbob]

Weld is a guy I could see myself voting for depending on who the D candidate is. Walsh is a radio talk show jockey, barely a step above a reality TV star ...

[RiverDog]

Don’t sleep on the fact there are now 2 primary challengers to trump

In the Republican Party. While his part approval rating had been very high approaching 90% it recently was measured at 79% in a fox poll that also shows him unable to crack 40% vs Biden, warren, Harris or sanders.

I won't sleep that fact, I'll hibernate. Trump's overall approval rating has been amazingly constant, and most of those supporters have to be R's, so I'd chalk up that little 9% blip as an anomaly. The only way Trump's approval rate amongst R's really tanks is if we go into a major recession, and even then, it probably won't be enough to deny him the nomination. Even Jimmy Carter, who had less than a 50% approval rating from Dems and was challenged by a very well known figure in Ted Kennedy, had no problem getting re-nominated. Neither Weld or Walsh have the name recognition and campaign infrastructure that would be needed to unseat a sitting POTUS for his own party's nomination. You're grasping for straws, my friend.

And RD your money really hasn’t looked much better under Trump the last year or so anyway. As I’ve said imagine trump and his clown show in a recession or a true crisis.

With or without Trump, the economy is due for a major slowdown if not a recession. Trump's trade war is just pushing us toward it at a faster clip. But he's going to have to own it as he's done nothing but brag about it as if it's his exclusively.

Outside of Biden, the Dems aren't giving us any acceptable alternatives that I could vote for. Any of the others would be a huge disaster for our economy and personal pocketbooks if their agendas were ever implemented. They all view Wall Street and big business as the enemy, they all favor some form of reparations, they all favor Medicare for All, they all favor free college. Vote for me and you'll get a whole bunch of free Schmidt.

It's like they're in a strip club and making it rain by throwing a garbage sack full of $20 bills on the stage.

[c_hawkbob]

Trump's net approval rating in every battleground state: https://www.axios.com/trump-approval-ra ... bf62c.html

That can't be good (for him, great for the real world!) no matter how far out from the next election it is.

[Aseahawkfan]

No one will challenge Trump on the Republican ticket. They're going to let Crazy Uncle Trump finish what he started and then work back up from there. I keep wondering if we can go lower than Trump thinking no, but I never thought we could go as low as Trump so who knows. Hopefully no more reality TV stars that turn The White House into their personal place of business and reality TV show.

[RiverDog]

Trump's net approval rating in every battleground state: https://www.axios.com/trump-approval-ra ... bf62c.html

That can't be good (for him, great for the real world!) no matter how far out from the next election it is.

It's always better to be ahead than behind, but in the world of politics, 14 months is a lifetime. Did you see how far Biden slipped in one month?

Having said that, it's not just the 2016 battleground states (PA, MI, and WI) that Trump is in trouble in, it's places like FL and TX, states that are more diverse and with more electoral votes at stake than those in the rust belt and will require a more diversified campaign than the "America First" theme that served him so well in 2016.

[c_hawkbob]

Florida and Texas are included in that list ...

[RiverDog]

Florida and Texas are included in that list ...

Indeed they are, which is why I phrased it as "2016" battleground states.

[c_hawkbob]

Which is the whole point of that article. Every 2016 battleground state and their net approval rating change since 2016.

[RiverDog]

Which is the whole point of that article. Every 2016 battleground state and their net approval rating change since 2016.

Yes, that was my take away from the article, too. Perhaps I didn't phrase it properly, but the point I was trying to make is that with more states in play, particularly from different regions, Trump is going to have to work harder to keep those he won in 2016 in his column. His "America First" mantra resonated well in the rust belt, but he's going to have to come up with a different argument for Florida and Texas.

Trump's problems in Texas should be particularly alarming. The Republicans have won every POTUS election since 1976. Trump himself won it by 9 percentage points. The fact that Texas has voted so solidly Republican and has by far the most southern border miles yet it appears to be flipping speaks volumes about the popularity of his wall/immigration policy.

Of course, that's if we assume these poll numbers stay the way they are today. Some of those respondents that know Trump and don't like him might not be paying a lot of attention to the Dems yet. They might not think Trump is so bad once they read the fine print in the Dem alternative.

[Aseahawkfan]

I honestly don't care about polls right now. The real battle hasn't started yet. Polls mean nothing right now until all the Super Pacs, Pacs, and campaigns start the fear mongering with the heavy money and campaigns starting the actual campaigns hammering on each other and their policy. I'm sure all Trump's tweets will be used against him. I'm sure the Repubcs will be painting The Squad as the face of the Democratic Party and all their stupid quotes. It's going to be a real mud slinging match with Trump calling Biden Sleepy Joe and taking every advantage of every gaffe. I'm sure the Dems will trudge out all their Tweets to smear Trump. We'll see which has the greater effect on the swing voters. This is going to be a muddy (kind way to put it) campaign in my opinion and it isn't even close to off the ground yet. We're just seeing warning shots and test fire from the Repubs right now. The Dems are battling it out. Once the Dem candidate is chosen, the Republican weapons will start to fire hard and the big Republican money will ramp up. I'll be hearing and seeing smear ads everywhere soon enough.

[RiverDog]

I honestly don't care about polls right now. The real battle hasn't started yet. Polls mean nothing right now until all the Super Pacs, Pacs, and campaigns start the fear mongering with the heavy money and campaigns starting the actual campaigns hammering on each other and their policy. I'm sure all Trump's tweets will be used against him. I'm sure the Repubcs will be painting The Squad as the face of the Democratic Party and all their stupid quotes. It's going to be a real mud slinging match with Trump calling Biden Sleepy Joe and taking every advantage of every gaffe. I'm sure the Dems will trudge out all their Tweets to smear Trump. We'll see which has the greater effect on the swing voters. This is going to be a muddy (kind way to put it) campaign in my opinion and it isn't even close to off the ground yet. We're just seeing warning shots and test fire from the Repubs right now. The Dems are battling it out. Once the Dem candidate is chosen, the Republican weapons will start to fire hard and the big Republican money will ramp up. I'll be hearing and seeing smear ads everywhere soon enough.

Polls do mean something, even this far out. It shows where the candidates strengths and weaknesses are at. Jimmy Carter, running as an incumbent, had horrible poll numbers, was below 50% even amongst Democrats, and those numbers held from 12 months out right through the election when Reagan trounced him. These particular results show that Trump is vulnerable. No way should a state like Texas be showing him as being so unpopular. Trump has his work cut out for him.

But they shouldn't be used in some sort of calculation of a chance of winning percentage, like the 'experts' that were saying that HRC had a 90% chance of winning the election based largely on poll results. I get the sense that Trump is going to be a one term POTUS, but I'm not betting any money on it. Sometimes it's hard to separate a rational appraisal from wishful thinking.

[Aseahawkfan]

Polls do mean something, even this far out. It shows where the candidates strengths and weaknesses are at. Jimmy Carter, running as an incumbent, had horrible poll numbers, was below 50% even amongst Democrats, and those numbers held from 12 months out right through the election when Reagan trounced him. These particular results show that Trump is vulnerable. No way should a state like Texas be showing him as being so unpopular. Trump has his work cut out for him.

But they shouldn't be used in some sort of calculation of a chance of winning percentage, like the 'experts' that were saying that HRC had a 90% chance of winning the election based largely on poll results. I get the sense that Trump is going to be a one term POTUS, but I'm not betting any money on it. Sometimes it's hard to separate a rational appraisal from wishful thinking.

Sorry, I don't agree. Those polls could shift immensely quickly if the wrong person wins the Dem nomination. I don't think they matter right now. They won't until the Dems get a candidate with a VP.

Bringing up Carter versus Reagan is not a great example. Reagan was better than Carter in nearly every way as far public speaking. Reagan was a uniquely popular president with speaking ability that we haven't seen since him. Biden is not close to a Reagan.

I"m pretty sure Texas and Florida won't fall into the "Anyone but Trump" camp. Thus any polls won't be accurate until we see who Trump goes against. Then we see how the campaigns go. Polling this far out is like polling for the Super Bowl, lots could happen to change the favorites.

Biden has the best chance to win against Trump. He needs to pick a strong VP candidate, stand up to the brutal attacks coming his way, and out talk Trump head to head and in the swing states. Biggest mistake John McCain made against Obama was picking an awful VP candidate. I went from wanting to vote for McCain to this VP candidate is trash and McCain won't get my vote based on Sarah Palin. She seemed interesting until she talked.

[RiverDog]

Sorry, I don't agree. Those polls could shift immensely quickly if the wrong person wins the Dem nomination. I don't think they matter right now. They won't until the Dems get a candidate with a VP.

Oh, you bet they can change quickly. But they are mood indicators and show where a candidate is weak. You can bet that both camps are keeping a close eye on them.

Bringing up Carter versus Reagan is not a great example. Reagan was better than Carter in nearly every way as far public speaking. Reagan was a uniquely popular president with speaking ability that we haven't seen since him. Biden is not close to a Reagan.

What you say about Reagan is true except the part about him being uniquely popular. It depends on how far back you want to go. Nixon was extremely popular in 1972. Eisenhower and Roosevelt were very popular, too. But a lot has changed recently. There doesn't seem to be as many uncommitted voters anymore. More people seem to have already made up their minds.

I"m pretty sure Texas and Florida won't fall into the "Anyone but Trump" camp. Thus any polls won't be accurate until we see who Trump goes against. Then we see how the campaigns go. Polling this far out is like polling for the Super Bowl, lots could happen to change the favorites.

I'm not sure about anything this far out.

Florida is very diverse, has a lot of retired people like me that could get scared of a progressive liberal like Sanders or Warren. But they have a very large Cuban/Caribbean population that could be put off by Trump's anti immigrant, racist/xenophobic behavior.

Texas is a surprise. If those poll results are to be believed, it's a remarkable shift given how deep red the state has been over the past 40 years. What I think you're seeing is that Trump's pi$$ing off a lot of Hispanics. He was doing very well with that group, hitting close to 50% approval as recent as last year. That's one of the red flags that these polls can bring out and why they aren't completely meaningless. If he knows what's good for him politically, he'll back off some of that rhetoric.

Biden has the best chance to win against Trump. He needs to pick a strong VP candidate, stand up to the brutal attacks coming his way, and out talk Trump head to head and in the swing states. Biggest mistake John McCain made against Obama was picking an awful VP candidate. I went from wanting to vote for McCain to this VP candidate is trash and McCain won't get my vote based on Sarah Palin. She seemed interesting until she talked.

If Biden wins the nomination, he almost certainly will pick a female running mate.