pray for the victims

[idhawkman]

I'm not a Republican. I'm an American, first and always. I don't claim allegiance to any party. I don't like either one for the most part. I mostly vote Republican as the lesser of two evils as they're driving us towards the cliff at a slightly slower pace, thus giving the chance to fix things. And at least they aren't fully invested in identity politics, PC culture, and the culture of pseudo-science fueled trash economic policies and racist liberal white-guilt social policies they put into law.

The Republicans have pretty much sold us out to corporate interests and their wealthy plan to make sure they're protected while the rest of us are screwed when the country goes bankrupt from both parties economic policies which seen to consist of keep borrowing until we can't anymore, then blow it all up while the wealthy keep their assets and money.

It's not real great to be part of either party right now.

Just as an FYI, I didn't include you in the 3.

[idhawkman]

Is there any gaffe possibly worse than saying he believes Putin at his word while openly questioning our own intelligence information in front of the world...then saying the NEXT day that he meant the exact opposite?

Good revisionist history there I-5. Even with your version of what was said, yes, there is a worse gaffe. "The 80's called and wanted their cold war back" Barack Obama to Romney at the second presidential debate in 2012.

Here's another, "There's no way to interfere in our elections. Its not possible. I'd suggest he go out and make his case and try to get more votes and stop whining." Barrack Obama days before the 2016 election talking about the Trump Campaign.

Days after the election, "The Russians interfered with our elections and wanted Trump to win." The whole democrat party and MSM for the past 3 years everyday.

[idhawkman]

Who's going to pay for the wall?

That is still yet to be determined. Right now the Mexicans are paying for thousands of police on their borders to slow the immigration and if/when the USMCA is passed, the increased revenue will be Mexico paying more into the US coffers.

[Hawktawk]

We are paying for the Fing Wall. Such bulls#|t. You’re truly amazing , a poster child for the trump
Cult.

[idhawkman]

We are paying for the Fing Wall. Such bulls#|t. You’re truly amazing , a poster child for the trump
Cult.

The tarrifs alone will more than pay for that wall, too.

[c_hawkbob]

We are paying for the Fing Wall. Such bulls#|t. You’re truly amazing , a poster child for the trump
Cult.

The tarrifs alone will more than pay for that wall, too.

Never mind that its us working Americans and farmers paying for the tariffs.

[RiverDog]

Never mind that its us working Americans and farmers paying for the tariffs.

Yup. It's the importing country that pays for the tariff, and the consumer pays in the form of a higher price:

A tariff is a tax on imported goods. Despite what the president says, it is almost always paid directly by the importer (usually a domestic firm), and never by the exporting country. Thus, if the U.S. imposes a tariff on Chinese televisions, the duty is paid to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Service at the border by a U.S. broker representing a U.S. importer, say, Costco.

The Chinese government pays nothing, just as the U.S. government pays no tax to Canada for that nation’s tariffs on imported dairy products. Rather, an importer or supplier for a Canadian supermarket pays the duty on Wisconsin cheese that lands in the grocer’s dairy counter (though I suspect few Canadian retailers are selling much U.S. cheese these days, given the recent unpleasantness between the two countries).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/howardglec ... 23d554137b

[Hawktawk]

Yes and the taxpayers are paying for the 18 billion in bailouts to midwestern farmers destroyed by idiots trade wars too. The Maine lobster industry wants some too, as well as the auto industry and most large durable goods manufacturers who use a lot of steel. ID is completely out to lunch on this one .

[Aseahawkfan]

China is not experiencing the negative effects of this trade war. Our farmers are getting hit harder because China imported food from us to feed that huge population. We were importing a lot more from them and Chinese companies are just passing the cost on to the consumer and it's still cheaper since China undercut our labor and production costs by way more than 10%. Trump would have to boost tariffs a lot higher to make it more profitable to produce here.

[RiverDog]

China is not experiencing the negative effects of this trade war. Our farmers are getting hit harder because China imported food from us to feed that huge population. We were importing a lot more from them and Chinese companies are just passing the cost on to the consumer and it's still cheaper since China undercut our labor and production costs by way more than 10%. Trump would have to boost tariffs a lot higher to make it more profitable to produce here.

The point wasn't so much about what effect the tariffs are having on the targeted country's economy. The point was who is paying for the Trump imposed tariffs. It's not the country on which the tariffs are imposed, it's the American consumer that pays for it in the form of higher prices. The distributor that moves the product out of the port of entry pays the tariff and the only way for them to reclaim that expense is to raise the price on those goods.

As I understand his argument, Idahawkman is trying to claim that the tariffs Trump is imposing on Mexico is financing the border wall. If that's true, then it's not Mexico that's paying for it, rather it's the American consumer.

[Aseahawkfan]

The point wasn't so much about what effect the tariffs are having on the targeted country's economy. The point was who is paying for the Trump imposed tariffs. It's not the country on which the tariffs are imposed, it's the American consumer that pays for it in the form of higher prices. The distributor that moves the product out of the port of entry pays the tariff and the only way for them to reclaim that expense is to raise the price on those goods.

As I understand his argument, Idahawkman is trying to claim that the tariffs Trump is imposing on Mexico is financing the border wall. If that's true, then it's not Mexico that's paying for it, rather it's the American consumer.

That's how it usually works. The increased price is supposed to reduce demand and cause producers to go to places without the tariff. It's not working against China because even a 10% increase is insufficient to offset the lower production costs.

Mexico isn't paying for the wall with tariffs. Who said that? Tariffs don't work that way.

[RiverDog]

Mexico isn't paying for the wall with tariffs. Who said that? Tariffs don't work that way.

Who would you guess said that? From our Fox News contributor a few posts above:

idahawkman: "The tarrifs alone will more than pay for that wall, too."

[idhawkman]

Never mind that its us working Americans and farmers paying for the tariffs.

Are you not paying attention Bob? The Chinese are manipulating their currency and we are not paying for them. Inflation is stagnant according to the Federal Reserve. So the bottom line is that the Chinese and the big corporations are absorbing the costs not the Americans.

Regarding the farmers, they are being given $16B of the tariff money that is being brought in to make them whole. So they aren't paying either.

[idhawkman]

The point wasn't so much about what effect the tariffs are having on the targeted country's economy. The point was who is paying for the Trump imposed tariffs. It's not the country on which the tariffs are imposed, it's the American consumer that pays for it in the form of higher prices. The distributor that moves the product out of the port of entry pays the tariff and the only way for them to reclaim that expense is to raise the price on those goods.

As I understand his argument, Idahawkman is trying to claim that the tariffs Trump is imposing on Mexico is financing the border wall. If that's true, then it's not Mexico that's paying for it, rather it's the American consumer.

This idea that the importing country is paying the tax is a basic lack of understanding of what is happening. The weakening peso or Chinese yen is what is paying the tax, not the US dollar. The cost American business is paying for the imported products is the same in USD as it was before. That's what a stronger dollar does and the Chinese especially are manipulating their currency to make sure that US importers are not paying more for the products.

I know it is a little deeper to understand this than the one line talking points the left is putting out but it is the reality of what's happening.

[idhawkman]

Saying China doesn't feel the effect is just false. Here's some articles that I'm sure you won't classify as right wing since they come from the likes of CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/15/economy/china-gdp-growth/index.html

and a more recent article on their inflation rates for pork to fruits and vegetables is here:
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3022075/us-trade-war-drives-chinas-producer-prices-deflation-pork

[RiverDog]

This idea that the importing country is paying the tax is a basic lack of understanding of what is happening. The weakening peso or Chinese yen is what is paying the tax, not the US dollar. The cost American business is paying for the imported products is the same in USD as it was before. That's what a stronger dollar does and the Chinese especially are manipulating their currency to make sure that US importers are not paying more for the products.

I know it is a little deeper to understand this than the one line talking points the left is putting out but it is the reality of what's happening.

Let's see, do I believe Howard Gleckman, the senior contributor on finance at Forbes, or do I believe Idahawkman, a random poster on The Shack? Hmmm.

[Aseahawkfan]

This idea that the importing country is paying the tax is a basic lack of understanding of what is happening. The weakening peso or Chinese yen is what is paying the tax, not the US dollar. The cost American business is paying for the imported products is the same in USD as it was before. That's what a stronger dollar does and the Chinese especially are manipulating their currency to make sure that US importers are not paying more for the products.

I know it is a little deeper to understand this than the one line talking points the left is putting out but it is the reality of what's happening.

So basic economics is based on politics now? I don't think so. That's like saying 2+2 is based on politics.

Sorry, Mexico is not paying. Tariffs artificially raise the cost of production. The idea is that they reduce demand encouraging production to be moved to other places, preferably the home nation. But given America's costs for producing, that is very unlikely given 10% is not sufficient to undercut Mexico or China. Not sure what level of tariff we would have to impose to match their low production costs, but likely higher.

I'm not sure why you are letting politics cloud the economics of tariffs. They are pretty simple to understand. And Mexico is not paying for the wall, the consumer is. Just like if you increased wages or any other aspect of production. Seam reason increasing the minimum wage is ineffective.

And China has been manipulating its currency for years in line with the dollar to ensure it is always cheaper to produce in China. That's why Trump is asking for a weaker dollar because a strong dollar makes the cost of production in America higher since American workers are paid in dollars. Which further helps China maintain its position as the low cost producer.

I'm not sure who you are listening to, but whoever they are is putting out bad economic information.

[Aseahawkfan]

Saying China doesn't feel the effect is just false. Here's some articles that I'm sure you won't classify as right wing since they come from the likes of CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/15/economy/china-gdp-growth/index.html

and a more recent article on their inflation rates for pork to fruits and vegetables is here:
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3022075/us-trade-war-drives-chinas-producer-prices-deflation-pork

Well, last I saw China's exports increased.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3021907/chinas-exports-post-surprise-growth-july-despite-dramatic

There growth decreased, but not by a huge amount. They're still growing by over 6%.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/15/economy/china-gdp-growth/index.html

If China is still growing by 6%, then it would likely be smarter for them to wait out Trump and see if he gets re-elected. If the American economy takes a big hit from the trade war, tha won't be good. The growth estimate for the second quarter is 2.1%. https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2019-advance-estimate-and-annual-update

That's one thing I like about economics. It's based on numbers. Numbers don't care if you're a Republican or Democrat.

So you do the math. Who can wait out who? The nation still growing at over 6% with the 1.4 billion people hungry for American goods or the country growing at 2% who is paying more for goods from its biggest trading partner whose businesses can't access the 1.4 billion people to sell American goods and services to in the 6% growth nation. Hmmm. We shall see.

At this point Trump should run this into next year, get as good a deal as he can, and close out the trade war with China as the election gets near. Then he can tout it as a policy win as long as the economy is still on track. Once he gets his second four year term, he can screw over his base like I believe he plans to if he wins a second term. This was always about Trump and will be about him in the end as well. He'll likely be interested in rebuilding his reputation when he leaves office so he can keep being in the spotlight. When you retire to president, you gotta enjoy yourself.

Though if the Senate flips during the next election cycle, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

[Aseahawkfan]

Are you not paying attention Bob? The Chinese are manipulating their currency and we are not paying for them. Inflation is stagnant according to the Federal Reserve. So the bottom line is that the Chinese and the big corporations are absorbing the costs not the Americans.

Regarding the farmers, they are being given $16B of the tariff money that is being brought in to make them whole. So they aren't paying either.

You know how economics work, man. Stop trying to give this a political slant and just look at the numbers. Any extra costs are passed on to the consumer in the final price, which also increases any sales tax we pay. Tariffs are primarily a tool to increase the cost of production to reduce demand from the nation you are trade warring in encouraging producers to bring production to the home nation or another nation with no tariffs. If a company still produces in a nation where they will pay tariffs to import, they will pass that cost onto the consumer. They won't eat it. You know this.

The real measure I would like to see is how many jobs are returning to America because of the tariffs and how much of a demand drop is China seeing. If their exports increased, that implies increased demand. That is not good for the trade war from America's perspective.

[Aseahawkfan]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-weaker-us-dollar

This is why Trump wants a weaker dollar. He is mostly right since China and other nations have been manipulating their currency for years to screw us. That was long before the trade war and Trump took office. Our businesses don't mind producing in other nations, so they don't care.

Multinationals, especially tech, are probably mixedon Trump. He gave them lower taxes and regulations, but he's attacking their well developed supply chains in places like China, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.

We'll see how long he can keep this trade war going.

[RiverDog]

Sorry, Mexico is not paying. Tariffs artificially raise the cost of production. The idea is that they reduce demand encouraging production to be moved to other places, preferably the home nation. But given America's costs for producing, that is very unlikely given 10% is not sufficient to undercut Mexico or China. Not sure what level of tariff we would have to impose to match their low production costs, but likely higher.

Precisely. All tariffs are is a tax on imported goods. It does add revenue to the treasury just like a sales tax does, but like a sales tax, a B&O tax, property tax, etc, it's ultimately paid by the consumer in the form of higher prices the supplier adds to their goods to compensate for the higher cost to produce and/or deliver those goods to the market. Additionally, the targeted country usually responds by slapping tariffs of their own on our exported goods, as China has done with agricultural products we've been selling to them, which hurts producers in our country.

Plus as Hawktalk pointed out, Trump has been bailing out domestic industries affected by Chinese tariffs by giving them a subsidy that's paid for by, you guessed it, the American taxpayers.

I'm not necessarily against tariffs when unfair practices occur, but this idea that they are some sort of credit from Mexico which can be used to build Trump's border wall is absurd. It's as stupid of a rationalization as AOC's claim that the proposed tax incentives that New York was going to give Amazon can now be used for schools and libraries.

[idhawkman]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-weaker-us-dollar

This is why Trump wants a weaker dollar. He is mostly right since China and other nations have been manipulating their currency for years to screw us. That was long before the trade war and Trump took office. Our businesses don't mind producing in other nations, so they don't care.

Multinationals, especially tech, are probably mixedon Trump. He gave them lower taxes and regulations, but he's attacking their well developed supply chains in places like China, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.

We'll see how long he can keep this trade war going.

He'll keep it going as long as inflation and unemployment stay in control. "IF" they start to move, then we'll see what he does. That said, he has the FED which will help stabilize the economy for a while before inflation or unemployment kicks in.