DONALD J TRUMP

[Seahawks4Ever]

He needs to be IMPEACHED immediately and ANYBODY who doesn't agree is a TRAITOR to the United States of America.

The GOP leadership in Congress along with a majority of the SCOTUS witness BLATANT CORRUPTION, OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE, AND ABJECT TREASON and they have abrogated their duty to DEFEND AND PROTECT THE UNITED STATES CONSTITUTION!!!!!!!!!!!!

WE ARE OFFICIALY IN A CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS.

Yoder will probably ban me for this, but, I do NOT CARE. I have done my DUTY to this area of the internet, I can do NO MORE. It is up to the rest of YOU to decide, will you help stop this Trumpian MADNESS or will you be part of the problem. no CITIZEN can afford to sit on the sidelines any longer!

[burrrton]

WE ARE OFFICIALY IN A CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS.

No, you're in a mental crisis. Get a grip.

[Aseahawkfan]

What brought this crazy rant on? And calling everyone a traitor that doesn't agree with him? This dog and pony show is playing out to its end I imagine. Now we have a spy in the Trump campaign supposedly. When do the parties not plant spies in each other's campaign. I guess it will come down to if a sitting president ordered it on behalf of his party. I don't know. I'd sure like Mueller to either show something soon or end the dog and pony show, so we can continue the dog and pony show of President Twitter. After eight years of the media touting Rockstar Obama followed by four (hopefully not eight) years of Twittering Trump and his battling tirades, the next president is going to have work real hard to seem interesting.

Though I'm waiting to see if the pornstar can bring down the president. That would be so fitting for this president in this era of vapid, raunchy celebrity where you can become famous due to being rich and releasing a sex tape. Nothing will be quite as hilarious as a president dodging the bullet of being labeled and prosecuted as a Russian puppet, only to be taken down due to campaign law violations when he tried to cover up banging a pornstar.

[burrrton]

Nothing will be quite as hilarious as a president dodging the bullet of being labeled and prosecuted as a Russian puppet, only to be taken down due to campaign law violations when he tried to cover up banging a pornstar.

I don't think there's a snowball's chance in h3ll of that happening, but it would be quintessentially Trumpian to go out that way.

[RiverDog]

He needs to be IMPEACHED immediately and ANYBODY who doesn't agree is a TRAITOR to the United States of America.

The GOP leadership in Congress along with a majority of the SCOTUS witness BLATANT CORRUPTION, OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE, AND ABJECT TREASON and they have abrogated their duty to DEFEND AND PROTECT THE UNITED STATES CONSTITUTION!!!!!!!!!!!!

WE ARE OFFICIALY IN A CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS.

Yoder will probably ban me for this, but, I do NOT CARE. I have done my DUTY to this area of the internet, I can do NO MORE. It is up to the rest of YOU to decide, will you help stop this Trumpian MADNESS or will you be part of the problem. no CITIZEN can afford to sit on the sidelines any longer!

Jezus, S4E! Anyone that doesn't agree with you is a traitor? Do you understand that what you just wrote is in itself un-American?

And if you value your privilege of posting here, you'd better be careful as you're tickling the Dragon's tail by taunting Yoder. You've already been banned once.

[RiverDog]

"Nothing will be quite as hilarious as a president dodging the bullet of being labeled and prosecuted as a Russian puppet, only to be taken down due to campaign law violations when he tried to cover up banging a pornstar."

I don't think there's a snowball's chance in h3ll of that happening, but it would be quintessentially Trumpian to go out that way.

Agreed on both points.

[yoder]

Seahawks4Ever,

Please take a look at your quote from this thread back in January:
http://hawkshack.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2663&sid=18036d784d2c7132beede362292a4a16

I will cool it. First of all, I am sorry I got personal, not only was that wrong it always a sure fire way of losing a debate.
Secondly, I will stay away from the political posts because when people have intractable views no amount of debate will change someone's mind and there is no reason to keep beating a dead horse.

You posted this after you were banned the first time. Lines like "ANYBODY who doesn't agree is a TRAITOR to the United States of America" completely disgust me. Everyone has their right to their own opinion, but calling out those that disagree as traitors is completely uncalled for. It very much reminds me of people that say "If you don't believe in Christ your going straight to hell". Many people may think that way, but saying it straight to someone's face is very much a different thing. The Shack ain't no Westboro Church and this ain't no dictatorship either.

Open and intelligent conversations are what make this place stand out from other forums, no way in hell will I let radical comments take away from what we have here.

If you need a soapbox to stand on, this is not the place. I'm sure there are plenty of other websites out there that support your way of thinking. Not here bud. You want to talk football? Fine. Leave the politics alone.

You have been warned multiple times, consider this one the absolute last.

Sincerely,

Yoder

P.S. Am I tired of repeating myself? Am I tired of repeating myself? Am I tired of repeating myself?

[makena]

I'm TIREd of Yoder REPeating HIMSELF!

lol

[idhawkman]

The reality of the situation is that he will be reelected by a larger margin than he won this past election. Here's why:

1. African American vote will be over 20% for him based on their unemployment numbers and the programs he puts in place to bring up their social status.
a. Look at the boxer he just pardoned, the prison reform, Kanye West and others. This is what strikes fear in the hearts of Democrats. If Trump holds onto the 20% plus African American vote, you can close the polls now.
b. Lowest unemployment rate for African American and Hispanics in history.
c. DACA reform will get approved and the wall will be built protecting the lowest wage earners from illegals undercutting their wages.

2. The economy will continue to hum along at 4% plus based on the regulation reforms and trade agreements. (Look for N. Korea to play a big part here)

3. The new health care plan will get approved lowering costs and improving care.

4. V.A. reform will solidify his veteran and active duty votes.

5. Rising wages for the first time in decades will solidify his blue collar vote.

6. Peace in the middle east and on the Korean penisula will solidify American influence in the world. (Haven't heard anything about ISIS lately have you?)

These are just a few of the reasons he will be reelected.

I know a lot of people hate his tweets but if you look deeper into the tweets you will see what he's really doing. Everytime he inflames the media with a tweet it is because he wants to distract the media from a potentially controversial policy or activity he is doing quietly. I call it the biggest rope-a-dope in American political history but maybe a better mental image is the media is the snake waiting to strike and he is waving one hand in front of the snake distracting its gaze from the hand that is coming around and grabbing it by the neck.

Stay tuned, it will only get better from here.

[burrrton]

2. The economy will continue to hum along at 4% plus based on the regulation reforms and trade agreements.

Prediction: the tariffs will negate virtually all of the economic gains we've seen.

Make me eat crow if I'm wrong, but I think these tariffs are *monumentally* stupid.

[RiverDog]

The reality of the situation is that he will be reelected by a larger margin than he won this past election. Here's why:

1. African American vote will be over 20% for him based on their unemployment numbers and the programs he puts in place to bring up their social status.
a. Look at the boxer he just pardoned, the prison reform, Kanye West and others. This is what strikes fear in the hearts of Democrats. If Trump holds onto the 20% plus African American vote, you can close the polls now.
b. Lowest unemployment rate for African American and Hispanics in history.
c. DACA reform will get approved and the wall will be built protecting the lowest wage earners from illegals undercutting their wages.

20% of the black vote? I'd wager a ton of money against that possible result, especially if you're hanging your hat on his pardoning of Jack Johnson, of whom most blacks, indeed most people in general, have never heard of. His stance on the NFL protests will hurt him more with blacks than the pardoning of boxer that's been dead for 70 years could help.

DACA reform will get approved and the wall will be built protecting the lowest wage earners from illegals undercutting their wages.

Even if the wall got under construction today and they worked on it 24/7, it wouldn't even be close to being built before the 2020 election. It's a 10 year project....if it ever happens.

2. The economy will continue to hum along at 4% plus based on the regulation reforms and trade agreements. (Look for N. Korea to play a big part here)

"Hum along" at 4%? It hasn't sustained that kind of growth in decades. The latest revision for for 2018 Q1 has it down to 2.2% from 2.9% in Q4 of last year. You're engaging in wishful thinking if you're expecting 4%. As burrton pointed out, Trump's tarrifs have the potential to throw a big monkey wrench into our economic growth.

6. Peace in the middle east and on the Korean penisula will solidify American influence in the world. (Haven't heard anything about ISIS lately have you?)

Giving Trump credit for the defeat of ISIS makes about as much sense as giving Harry Truman credit for winning World War 2. ISIS was clearly on the demise when Trump was sworn in.

[RiverDog]

Prediction: the tariffs will negate virtually all of the economic gains we've seen.

Make me eat crow if I'm wrong, but I think these tariffs are *monumentally* stupid.

Agreed. And although I don't disagree with his doing it, getting out of the Iran nuke deal is already costing the economy as gas prices have gone through the roof, and as a result, Wall Street has been very stagnant in the past couple of months.

[burrrton]

And although I don't disagree with his doing it, getting out of the Iran nuke deal is already costing the economy as gas prices have gone through the roof

Agree- I tend to think those will settle back down, though, and Iran needed to know their nuke program is absolutely, 100%, non-negotiably unacceptable.

Make a new deal if you can, but Iran deciding which sites can be inspected, giving them a heads-up about upcoming inspections, and so on, simply cannot be a part of it (no matter how desperate you are to get a foreign policy win!).

[RiverDog]

Agree- I tend to think those will settle back down, though, and Iran needed to know their nuke program is absolutely, 100%, non-negotiably unacceptable.

But it might not settle down in time for the midterms, and if the economy is sluggish, it will deprive the R's of a big campaign issue. If the R's lose Congress this fall, it will mean some tough sledding for the POTUS in the 2nd half of his term and ultimately damage any chance he has of reelection in 2020.

[burrrton]

But it might not settle down in time for the midterms, and if the economy is sluggish, it will deprive the R's of a big campaign issue.

Yep. Good point.

[Aseahawkfan]

Agreed. And although I don't disagree with his doing it, getting out of the Iran nuke deal is already costing the economy as gas prices have gone through the roof, and as a result, Wall Street has been very stagnant in the past couple of months.

Wall Street is not stagnant because of oil prices. Wall Street is stagnant because all the good news is baked into the current price of stocks. Stocks as an aggregate rise in bursts, not in a straight, linear line. Then run flat for a while. There isn't any momentum until next earnings season to drive upward stock movement. Earnings drive individual stocks. Macroeconomic news drives the index as a whole at times. Iran speculation is partially driving oil prices, but all that does is boost domestic production which boosts jobs. Our economy can take a while lot more upward oil movement and keep on growing strong. It wasn't oil at a $100 a barrel that killed the economy, it was a housing problem and toxic lending. Once you see credit reach toxic levels, run for the hills. The current state of banking is going to lead to another bad situation. Trump's been rolling back regulation to halt this. Credit is rising again. One bad economic jolt with rising interest rates, we'll get a huge amount of defaults causing a spiral again.

[Aseahawkfan]

1. African American vote will be over 20% for him based on their unemployment numbers and the programs he puts in place to bring up their social status.
a. Look at the boxer he just pardoned, the prison reform, Kanye West and others. This is what strikes fear in the hearts of Democrats. If Trump holds onto the 20% plus African American vote, you can close the polls now.
b. Lowest unemployment rate for African American and Hispanics in history.
c. DACA reform will get approved and the wall will be built protecting the lowest wage earners from illegals undercutting their wages.

Who have you been talking to? He's viewed as a racist by most folk of African descent I know. Latins are mixed on him for the people I know. Some despise him, some laud him. Contrary to the media's portrayal, some Latins favor immigration reform as they came here legally and would prefer others follow suit.

2. The economy will continue to hum along at 4% plus based on the regulation reforms and trade agreements. (Look for N. Korea to play a big part here)

I'm assuming you mean unemployment rate, not growth rate? I don't think we've reached a 4% growth rate even now.

3. The new health care plan will get approved lowering costs and improving care.

If his push to lower prescription costs goes through, that will help a lot of people. A lot of old folks with lower medication costs that tend to vote will help him a lot.

4. V.A. reform will solidify his veteran and active duty votes.

That should help, but he's already pretty solid with the military. The Iran deal should help him there as well. Taking money out of the hands of a nation trying to kill our military guys is always a plus. I still can't believe what Obama did with that Iran deal. I can't believe more people aren't pissed beyond belief.

5. Rising wages for the first time in decades will solidify his blue collar vote.

As long as no big bumps occur, it should help. All the building and economic activity should help the blue collar vote. If he can help the car companies, should help him even more. Tariffs on imported steel and cars should help domestic steel and car companies helping in The Rust Belt. A bunch of folks talking about tariffs hurting Trump and economy really don't get the state of the Rust Belt. Only way to fix that area is to make imports more costly than domestic production. If Trump pushes it through in the right way, he can increase domestic production increasing jobs in those regions. He'll win Pennsylvania and those areas again.

6. Peace in the middle east and on the Korean penisula will solidify American influence in the world. (Haven't heard anything about ISIS lately have you?)

I hadn't heard much of Al Qaeda during Obama's later years either. You give Obama credit for that? Someone new will come along. It always does. Our defense industry needs an enemy as does our nation. We manufacture them when they don't really exist. We keep our hands in too many cookie jars until the people in that region get angry and attack us back at some point. The worst attack on America has not yet come. It will eventually be a nuclear, biological, or chemical attack that makes 9/11 or Pearl Harbor look like child's play. We've pissed far too many people off playing the World police for it not come back on us at some point. We have so many people that want to hurt us for past transgressions, we can't see them all coming. Even if it isn't Trump, some future president will pull the unlucky card when it happens.

[Aseahawkfan]

Prediction: the tariffs will negate virtually all of the economic gains we've seen.

Make me eat crow if I'm wrong, but I think these tariffs are *monumentally* stupid.

I don't agree. If done right, Trump could revive steel and materials production domestically and help local labor for car companies. It depends on who he hits and how. It would be huge voting returns in key states if he can revive the Rust Belt economies.

[RiverDog]

I don't agree. If done right, Trump could revive steel and materials production domestically and help local labor for car companies. It depends on who he hits and how. It would be huge voting returns in key states if he can revive the Rust Belt economies.

There's not enough capacity in the domestic steel and aluminum industry to meet manufacturer needs. They will still depend on imports, and as such, the tariffs will increase the cost to produce finished goods like autos and airliners and hurting those industries:

In the aerospace industry, about 2.5 million U.S. jobs depend on both steel and aluminum imports.
The increased cost of individual parts could create “a cascading effect that has fairly significant impacts on our industry’s global competitiveness,” Remy Nathan, vice president of international affairs at the Aerospace Industries Association told NPR.
The auto industry, which was already facing sales declines in the U.S., will also be especially impacted. Toyota, General Motors, and other car makers saw their shares drop after the news Thursday.

http://fortune.com/2018/03/02/trump-ste ... ndustries/

This is a bad decision.

[NorthHawk]

Typically what happens when tariffs are imposed is a short term bump up for the economy, but in the long term it tends to cause problems that are worse than the initial increase to the economy.
It might help for the mid term elections if there is a political angle to it.

[RiverDog]

Wall Street is not stagnant because of oil prices. Wall Street is stagnant because all the good news is baked into the current price of stocks.

High oil prices help some of the oil company stocks in the short term and it will help some of the frackers in the Midwest as the price will start to justify their high production costs, but if they keep going up, it's only a matter of time before people quit traveling and it becomes a drag on the economy. In my former business, food processing, we could track our sales directly to gasoline prices. The price of gas goes up, people quit traveling and are more likely to stay at home than travel and eat out. I'd hate to be a businessman in Hawaii right now as they're likely to be hit with a double whammy, the volcano and rising airline prices due to the rise in crude oil will combine to severely retard their tourism business.

[Aseahawkfan]

There's not enough capacity in the domestic steel and aluminum industry to meet manufacturer needs. They will still depend on imports, and as such, the tariffs will increase the cost to produce finished goods like autos and airliners and hurting those industries:

In the aerospace industry, about 2.5 million U.S. jobs depend on both steel and aluminum imports.
The increased cost of individual parts could create “a cascading effect that has fairly significant impacts on our industry’s global competitiveness,” Remy Nathan, vice president of international affairs at the Aerospace Industries Association told NPR.
The auto industry, which was already facing sales declines in the U.S., will also be especially impacted. Toyota, General Motors, and other car makers saw their shares drop after the news Thursday.

http://fortune.com/2018/03/02/trump-ste ... ndustries/

This is a bad decision.

You don't need to have domestic production meet all needs. You need the tariffs high enough to make it profitable to make money doing it in America. Once the market settles with the tariffs in place, then you have a strong domestic industry and still profitable foreign industries.

Car maker shares drop in the short-term and you call that a piece of evidence? It isn't. It won't be until we see the full effect of tariffs on the domestic industry. It will take time.

[RiverDog]

You don't need to have domestic production meet all needs. You need the tariffs high enough to make it profitable to make money doing it in America. Once the market settles with the tariffs in place, then you have a strong domestic industry and still profitable foreign industries.

Car maker shares drop in the short-term and you call that a piece of evidence? It isn't. It won't be until we see the full effect of tariffs on the domestic industry. It will take time.

US manufacturers are going to have to buy a portion of their steel and aluminum overseas, tariffs or no tariffs. That means that the tarrifs will make their end products more expensive. Especially where international competition is keen, such as the auto industry, it will hurt domestic companies as their costs will be going up while their competitors can buy their materials without the tariff than their American counterparts and thus their costs remain flat.

The fact that the stock prices of US auto manufacturers dropped immediately after the announcement is evidence. Investors know the in's and out's of all public company's finances, where they get their raw materials from, how much they pay their labor, what their market is doing, and so on. They know the business almost as well as the people that run them.

[Aseahawkfan]

US manufacturers are going to have to buy a portion of their steel and aluminum overseas, tariffs or no tariffs. That means that the tarrifs will make their end products more expensive. Especially where international competition is keen, such as the auto industry, it will hurt domestic companies as their costs will be going up while their competitors can buy their materials without the tariff than their American counterparts and thus their costs remain flat.

And you put tariffs on cars coming in. It's a numbers game to even things out.

Do you have any idea how much China limits us in their market? Or Europe? Or the like? Why are you ok with that, but when the United States wants to ensure our companies are protected, suddenly we start a free trade discussion? It doesn't appear to be hurting places like Japan to have tariffs and import limitations in place, why do you think it would hurt us?

The fact that the stock prices of US auto manufacturers dropped immediately after the announcement is evidence. Investors know the in's and out's of all public company's finances, where they get their raw materials from, how much they pay their labor, what their market is doing, and so on. They know the business almost as well as the people that run them.

No, it doesn't mean that. I invest on a daily basis. What a drop in a stock price means without an earning report is uncertainty. You aren't sure what the effect will be, so you sell the stock. Some speculate it will be negative like you, some might see otherwise. No one will know until it is done and we see the long-term effects. If the tariffs go through, you may see American steel company stocks rise. So you move your money there, to benefit from the rise in domestic materials production. Investing is a very active activity that requires a great deal of data crunching. You're making too many assumptions way too early with too little information.

Fact is Trump is right. We have a lot of very lopsided against American labor trade deals. They benefit a small percentage of very wealthy people looking to undercut costs at the expense of labor to drive up stock prices. Stock price doesn't necessarily mean a healthy industry for American working people. Not sure why you believe it does.

We make a lot of moves to bolster Boeing in the international market. Look at their long-term stock price? Does it look like it's hurting Boeing? Other nations do the same with their industries. What Trump is doing could very well help. The auto and materials industry has been very damaged by international deals. They can't compete against slave labor level dealings with foreign nations. Not sure why you think pulling materials from nations using borderline slave labor is a good thing.
I'd rather have stronger domestic mining and materials operations. Attract some business back to America.

So we'll see where the final numbers fall. All I know for sure is it's best to negotiate these types of trade deals from a position of strength. That is what Trump is doing. He's not negotiating when we have a crap economy and no leverage. He's negotiating while we have a very strong market that foreign nations want access too. They may have to pay a little more to access our market as Trump looks at numbers and figures out how best to make the next series of trade deals.

You assuming any tariffs are bad is ridiculous. We don't have free trade. We have countries taking advantage of us. They want nearly unfettered access to our markets, while they limit our access to theirs. One of the few things I strongly support Trump doing is renegotiating these crap trade deals in favor of the American labor market and doing so while we're strong. Doing it why we're weak leads to desperation. Negotiating from strength allows you to wait for the right deal.

On a side note, you do know Russia and OPEC deliberately made moves to destroy domestic oil production, right? They made them as nation, not as free market competitors. Why did you think that was ok? Yet we're supposed to pretend it's a free market, while other nations work as nations against us? I say hell no. You want to play games against America, well they have a president in office that won't take that garbage. That's one area I applaud Trump on after having weak Obama and Bush in office. One thing Trump knows is how to deal. It's literally the one thing he is far superior at than most presidents we've ever had.

[burrrton]

"What is the difference between a Trade War and a shooting war?
In a shooting war each government shoots at and tries to harm the citizens of the OTHER country.
In a trade war, each government raises taxes on and damages its own citizens."

[Aseahawkfan]

"What is the difference between a Trade War and a shooting war?
In a shooting war each government shoots at and tries to harm the citizens of the OTHER country.
In a trade war, each government raises taxes on and damages its own citizens."

Really? How are those tariffs, trade limitations, piracy, and the like harming those Chinese citizens? Or those European Airline and drug companies?

Whoever wrote that doesn't understand war of any kind. Trade wars used in an intelligent manner can accomplish a great deal. That's exactly why nations like China and France do what they do. Broad ideas about anything are generally wrong and do not take into account all the various ways something can be done.

Using that nice little quote, explain why China, Japan, and too numerous of nations to name block us from heavily competing in their markets? It seems to allow them great success in building local business. They even come over to our nice free market buying up property and selling their products and services here, gaining not only from their business with us, but from their domestic business growth keeping us out.

Do you actually follow the business news and our trade deals with other nations or you purely a theory guy trotting out pithy aphorisms as though they apply to the real world?

I imagine you're ok with other nations pushing us around with crappy deals or activities like China manipulating their currency to undercut American business. We should just ignore it because trade wars will hurt us too much. Sorry, I don't buy it. Sometimes you have to force a better deal. This is the only means we have.

[NorthHawk]

China is completely different than France or other western countries in that China has a completely managed economy whereby it takes a long term view and then uses every way possible to achieve the goals set in that view.
For instance their rules that state any planes (Airliners like Boeing or Airbus) that they sell to China have to have a factory set up in China to produce and then sell to them.
This does two things for them: 1) it establishes an industry that wasn't in place previously thereby costing jobs in the west and 2) permits them to take technological leaps forward that would otherwise take years or decades.
My personal viewpoint is this airline component was a militarily strategic move because they had problems building jet engines to work with their own advanced fighter planes. What happened? Suddenly jet engines with state of the art design are being built in China where their engineers can copy and use in their planes.
Trump talks about Aluminum and Steel being a national security issue with allies when in fact the security issue is the transfer of technology and advanced design to a hostile nation.

The same can be said for high tech. If you want to read about stealing technology, put Nortel and Huawei in your search engine. The articles suggest they basically stole the company and cost investors billions of dollars.
That type of theft can only be approved of from the top echelon of that government as their access outside of China is monitored and restricted.

Trade wars with countries that are your allies are not the way to go if you want to have solid long term relationships, but trade wars with countries that don't care about copyrights and patents may be necessary to protect industries
and jobs.

[RiverDog]

China is completely different than France or other western countries in that China has a completely managed economy whereby it takes a long term view and then uses every way possible to achieve the goals set in that view.
For instance their rules that state any planes (Airliners like Boeing or Airbus) that they sell to China have to have a factory set up in China to produce and then sell to them.
This does two things for them: 1) it establishes an industry that wasn't in place previously thereby costing jobs in the west and 2) permits them to take technological leaps forward that would otherwise take years or decades.
My personal viewpoint is this airline component was a militarily strategic move because they had problems building jet engines to work with their own advanced fighter planes. What happened? Suddenly jet engines with state of the art design are being built in China where their engineers can copy and use in their planes.
Trump talks about Aluminum and Steel being a national security issue with allies when in fact the security issue is the transfer of technology and advanced design to a hostile nation.

The same can be said for high tech. If you want to read about stealing technology, put Nortel and Huawei in your search engine. The articles suggest they basically stole the company and cost investors billions of dollars.
That type of theft can only be approved of from the top echelon of that government as their access outside of China is monitored and restricted.

Trade wars with countries that are your allies are not the way to go if you want to have solid long term relationships, but trade wars with countries that don't care about copyrights and patents may be necessary to protect industries
and jobs.

Good post, North Hawk.

I'm basically a free trader. With our economy running the way it is, with unemployment at 20 year lows (3.8%), I don't see the need to change anything. Moreover, a solid trade relationship with an adversary like China can be a huge advantage, a tool that we can use to keep them at bay. China needs us as a trading partner more than we need them, so they are less likely to confront us militarily if they know that the consequences will be an end to the trade partnership.

[NorthHawk]

I am, too but I think we have to be careful when free trading with countries whose wages are significantly lower than ours as Free Trade Agreements are of late a means for capital to flow freely and as such it will find its way to the country with the lowest costs of doing business. In my mind, one of the failings of the NAFTA was that the promise or rather expectations were that the wages in Mexico would rise to the levels of the US and Canada and then open about an 85 million people market that didn't previously exist. It resulted in what we see now, namely the dissatisfaction with having watched our jobs go south without creating a new market of middle class Mexican consumers.
It's not the fault of the employees, rather a failure with the initial agreement to not have a stated goal and verifiable results clause within the existing text.

Edit:
I didn't talk about the rule of law which in many low wage countries only exists to benefit that country and Intellectual Property (IP) theft can be commonplace.
IP is a huge concern because it doesn't help anyone as it stifles innovation and investment in that area.
I just think it's important that if you are going to trade with countries, and we all must do so, that measures are in place to limit theft.
I don't believe we should be free trading with managed economies. You can never get a fair deal from that. However, countries with similar economic philosophies can work well.
Consider the EU. Most of their wages and costs of doing business are very near the same as in North America. Sure there are some pockets of lower costs, but generally the wages and regulations are very similar.
But most importantly, there is a mature legal structure in place to stop large scale theft of IP.

[RiverDog]

I am, too but I think we have to be careful when free trading with countries whose wages are significantly lower than ours as Free Trade Agreements are of late a means for capital to flow freely and as such it will find its way to the country with the lowest costs of doing business. In my mind, one of the failings of the NAFTA was that the promise or rather expectations were that the wages in Mexico would rise to the levels of the US and Canada and then open about an 85 million people market that didn't previously exist. It resulted in what we see now, namely the dissatisfaction with having watched our jobs go south without creating a new market of middle class Mexican consumers.
It's not the fault of the employees, rather a failure with the initial agreement to not have a stated goal and verifiable results clause within the existing text.

Edit:
I didn't talk about the rule of law which in many low wage countries only exists to benefit that country and Intellectual Property (IP) theft can be commonplace.
IP is a huge concern because it doesn't help anyone as it stifles innovation and investment in that area.
I just think it's important that if you are going to trade with countries, and we all must do so, that measures are in place to limit theft.
I don't believe we should be free trading with managed economies. You can never get a fair deal from that. However, countries with similar economic philosophies can work well.
Consider the EU. Most of their wages and costs of doing business are very near the same as in North America. Sure there are some pockets of lower costs, but generally the wages and regulations are very similar.
But most importantly, there is a mature legal structure in place to stop large scale theft of IP.

Another thoughtful post. Glad you joined in.

I'm too worried about a wage differential between trading partners. For example, in agriculture, we essentially import labor from Mexico to work in our fields, orchards, etc, which is causing a huge immigration/border security debate, so why not allow free trade of agricultural products between the US and Mexico and enhance their industry, thus lessening demand for agricultural workers north of the border? If they can make it cheaper there, then more power to them. It keeps our prices down.

Now if it's a situation where another country is abusing their workers by employing child labor, paying extremely low wagers, demanding excessively long hours, etc, things that an employer would not be allowed to do up here, that might change my opinion.

[burrrton]

Do you actually follow the business news and our trade deals with other nations

LOL. No, asea, you're the only one that pays attention to such things.

Now tell everyone more about how trade wars are great things for us- seems like you have a great grasp of the complexities and history.

[burrrton]

I'm basically a free trader. With our economy running the way it is, with unemployment at 20 year lows (3.8%), I don't see the need to change anything.

Coincidentally, I just stumbled across this in my morning reading:

"New tariffs intended to bolster the American steel and aluminum industries are starting to have the opposite effect in a key part of the U.S. supply chain."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/steel-tari ... 1527940800

Ugh.

[edit]

A good observation from a commenter:

"Sure you can just extend the tariffs to the fabricated and finished goods that are undercutting domestic industry, but at a certain point you’re just making everything more expensive. In the end, that’s a lot of economic pain for minimal, mostly symbolic, gain."

[RiverDog]

Coincidentally, I just stumbled across this in my morning reading:

"New tariffs intended to bolster the American steel and aluminum industries are starting to have the opposite effect in a key part of the U.S. supply chain."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/steel-tari ... 1527940800

Ugh.

[edit]

A good observation from a commenter:

"Sure you can just extend the tariffs to the fabricated and finished goods that are undercutting domestic industry, but at a certain point you’re just making everything more expensive. In the end, that’s a lot of economic pain for minimal, mostly symbolic, gain."

That pretty much follows what I was saying earlier in the thread, ie that they are likely to hurt the businesses they were intended to help. Plus we haven't even begun to talk about what China will do in retaliation.

[burrrton]

Plus we haven't even begun to talk about what China will do in retaliation.

Exactly. We haven't even gotten to the retaliatory part of this mess. Ridiculous.

[idhawkman]

Prediction: the tariffs will negate virtually all of the economic gains we've seen.

Make me eat crow if I'm wrong, but I think these tariffs are *monumentally* stupid.

You're on. How about a frosty beverage (next time I'm in Seattle) as the wager Burrton?

It's nearly impossible to lose a trade war when we are so far behind in the war. We're talking hundreds of billions of dollars to China and an additional hundreds of billions to our "allies". Wealth is leaving the US at the rate of about $4Billion a day. No nation can sustain that amount of depletion for long. Our market in the U.S. is the envy of the world and every nation wants to be able to sell to the people of the U.S. They will either play fair or they will start to starve their own companies and people. Its really that simple. They are already hurting from the billions of dollars repatriated by Trump in the tax reform bill. Now they want to compound it in a tarrif war they can't win? I don't think so.

[NorthHawk]

Here's an opinion piece that just begins to explain how trade deficits work and some of the consequences.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/01/opinions ... index.html

[RiverDog]

It's nearly impossible to lose a trade war when we are so far behind in the war. We're talking hundreds of billions of dollars to China and an additional hundreds of billions to our "allies". Wealth is leaving the US at the rate of about $4Billion a day. No nation can sustain that amount of depletion for long. Our market in the U.S. is the envy of the world and every nation wants to be able to sell to the people of the U.S. They will either play fair or they will start to starve their own companies and people. Its really that simple. They are already hurting from the billions of dollars repatriated by Trump in the tax reform bill. Now they want to compound it in a tarrif war they can't win? I don't think so.

As in a nuclear exchange, there are no winners in a trade war. Yes, we could hurt China more than they could hurt us. We are the 500 lb gorilla, in possession of the world's largest consumer market. But we'd be cutting off our nose to spite our face.

The problem is that it would take years for us to be able to ramp up production to cover demand for items that we would no longer import, or that is costly to sell due to the tariffs. You just don't walk into an empty building and flip the switch and presto, instant widgets. Companies would have to make substantial capital investments to expand and modernize factories, and they won't make that kind of commitment overnight, particularly with the way this President changes his mind. And in the years that we're waiting for domestic production to catch up with demand, we'll be paying higher prices, as we still need to buy clothes for our kids, and the tariffs will make those things more expensive. And once we did get domestic production ramped up, prices would not go down as things like labor and environmental laws making it more expensive to operate in this country.

There's a reason why companies chose to locate their factories overseas: Our country made it too expensive to operate here. So until you get some of your liberal pals to start backing off on things like increasing the minimum wage, passing renewable energy bills, and taxing business to kingdom come, it's always going to be much, much cheaper to produce many of our products overseas than it is here.

I lived through the inflation years of the '70's, and it was a nightmare. A 10% raise was eaten up by a 15% rate of inflation. No way do I want to see that ugly b**ch raise it's head again.

[burrrton]

You're on. How about a frosty beverage (next time I'm in Seattle) as the wager Burrton?

Sounds good.

It's nearly impossible to lose a trade war when we are so far behind in the war.

I'm not "behind" in any war with Fred Meyer because 99% of the 'trade' has gone their way.

[idhawkman]

1. African American vote will be over 20% for him based on their unemployment numbers and the programs he puts in place to bring up their social status.
a. Look at the boxer he just pardoned, the prison reform, Kanye West and others. This is what strikes fear in the hearts of Democrats. If Trump holds onto the 20% plus African American vote, you can close the polls now.
b. Lowest unemployment rate for African American and Hispanics in history.
c. DACA reform will get approved and the wall will be built protecting the lowest wage earners from illegals undercutting their wages.

Who have you been talking to? He's viewed as a racist by most folk of African descent I know. Latins are mixed on him for the people I know. Some despise him, some laud him. Contrary to the media's portrayal, some Latins favor immigration reform as they came here legally and would prefer others follow suit.

Here's a quote from USA Today which is no Trump fan rag.

"Kanye West must have some power because you probably have saw I doubled my African-American poll numbers. It went from 11 to 22 in one week," he told the crowd. "Thank you, Kanye!"

Turns out, he was right, at least in part, according to a Reuters poll. The numbers were correct when examining black men, not the entire black community.

Trump's approval rating among black men increased in the week between April 22 and April 29, according to a Reuters poll. West made posted his series of tweet voicing support for Trump on April 25.

It jumped from an 11% approval on April 22 to 22% on April 29.

Among the total black community, it also nearly doubled, but the numbers were lower.

His approval among all blacks increased from 8.9% to 16.5%.

So as you can see, he's already close to that 20% number which is scarring the living chit out of the Dems right now. Let the unemployment rate continue to drop for them and their wages to continue to grow with immigration reform and he'll easily hit that number by 2020.

2. The economy will continue to hum along at 4% plus based on the regulation reforms and trade agreements. (Look for N. Korea to play a big part here)

[quote}I'm assuming you mean unemployment rate, not growth rate? I don't think we've reached a 4% growth rate even now.[/quote]
Nope, Growth rate. Here's a link to an article from CNN which is hardly a shill for Trump about all the great economic news and you probably saw the article from the NYT this past week that stated they have run out of ways to explain how good the economy is right now. http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/25/news/economy/jobs-wages-new-hires/?iid=EL

Also note that the tax cuts hadn't really taken effect until end of Feb. With wages rising and tarriffs going into effect, the economy will continue to rev up through the rest of this year.

3. The new health care plan will get approved lowering costs and improving care.

If his push to lower prescription costs goes through, that will help a lot of people. A lot of old folks with lower medication costs that tend to vote will help him a lot.

That's one aspect but he's also got another Health Care reform bill going through congress. If both are passed, that'll be a bonus.

5. Rising wages for the first time in decades will solidify his blue collar vote.

As long as no big bumps occur, it should help. All the building and economic activity should help the blue collar vote. If he can help the car companies, should help him even more. Tariffs on imported steel and cars should help domestic steel and car companies helping in The Rust Belt. A bunch of folks talking about tariffs hurting Trump and economy really don't get the state of the Rust Belt. Only way to fix that area is to make imports more costly than domestic production. If Trump pushes it through in the right way, he can increase domestic production increasing jobs in those regions. He'll win Pennsylvania and those areas again.

Agreed.

6. Peace in the middle east and on the Korean penisula will solidify American influence in the world. (Haven't heard anything about ISIS lately have you?)

I hadn't heard much of Al Qaeda during Obama's later years either. You give Obama credit for that? Someone new will come along. It always does. Our defense industry needs an enemy as does our nation. We manufacture them when they don't really exist. We keep our hands in too many cookie jars until the people in that region get angry and attack us back at some point. The worst attack on America has not yet come. It will eventually be a nuclear, biological, or chemical attack that makes 9/11 or Pearl Harbor look like child's play. We've pissed far too many people off playing the World police for it not come back on us at some point. We have so many people that want to hurt us for past transgressions, we can't see them all coming. Even if it isn't Trump, some future president will pull the unlucky card when it happens.

The Iraqi Push by Bush pretty much knocked Al Queda off the pages of the news but ISIS was front and center not only in Syria but also in Iraq. Now they are nowhere to be seen or heard of.

Trump won't have to engineer anyone, the democrats are going to give him Russia. Russia won't bite though because of what we did to those 200 Russian soldiers (mercenaries) in Syria. It was a real wakeup call to Russia.

The new enemy will be China who is militarizing the south China seas. They have taken the trade imbalance with us and created a formitable military.

[idhawkman]

As in a nuclear exchange, there are no winners in a trade war. Yes, we could hurt China more than they could hurt us. We are the 500 lb gorilla, in possession of the world's largest consumer market. But we'd be cutting off our nose to spite our face.

The problem is that it would take years for us to be able to ramp up production to cover demand for items that we would no longer import, or that is costly to sell due to the tariffs. You just don't walk into an empty building and flip the switch and presto, instant widgets. Companies would have to make substantial capital investments to expand and modernize factories, and they won't make that kind of commitment overnight, particularly with the way this President changes his mind. And in the years that we're waiting for domestic production to catch up with demand, we'll be paying higher prices, as we still need to buy clothes for our kids, and the tariffs will make those things more expensive. And once we did get domestic production ramped up, prices would not go down as things like labor and environmental laws making it more expensive to operate in this country.

There's a reason why companies chose to locate their factories overseas: Our country made it too expensive to operate here. So until you get some of your liberal pals to start backing off on things like increasing the minimum wage, passing renewable energy bills, and taxing business to kingdom come, it's always going to be much, much cheaper to produce many of our products overseas than it is here.

I lived through the inflation years of the '70's, and it was a nightmare. A 10% raise was eaten up by a 15% rate of inflation. No way do I want to see that ugly b**ch raise it's head again.

First, I think you underestimate the strategy which started by getting out of the multiple country trade agreements. What we couldn't produce, we'd get from Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, Korea, etc. The trade with them would be much more fair than what we have with China and China is pissed at us and those other countries I mentioned. This is why they are trying to show their strength in the region - they are trying to scare those nations into doing what they want.

Second, you are right - the cost of doing business in the U.S. was too high because of regulations which Trump has steadily removed and by charging too high a tax on repatriating the funds from overseas. Both those hurdles are gone and now there is just the labor costs which Trump is dealing with in the Tarriffs he has imposed. Fair trade is fair not biased against us.

Third, I too lived through the crap in the 70's which was largely sparked by OPEC raising oil prices - not because of tarriffs. Also, in the 70's if you didn't like the price of a coat or shoes, you had just a few stores you could go to and get a better deal. Today, you not only have the entire U.S. but many other countries that would gladly sell you those shoes at a cheaper price. Reebok is Korean, etc. So inflation won't be as big of a concern as you think it will (I know you are retired and on a relatively fixed budget but it won't be as bad as you think.).

Fourth, Trump is not as dumb as Jimmy Carter was. I know you don't like him but he understands how this all works together. Carter had no idea how to handle OPEC. Trump already has. We are now an energy exporting country and not dependent on the world oil like in Carter's days. The Argentina fiasco would normally have raised gas prices by dollars and not cents by now. Russia can't sell its oil on the market making huge gains anymore. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia wants to convert his country to a new economy not based on oil. They all know that the U.S. has the largest oil reserves in the world and that we have lowered our cost of production much quicker than Saudi could. with our demand off the market, economies are looking to change. We will only buy from other countries when the price is real low. So since we won't have energy dependence on other countries, it will be harder for outside infulences to effect our economy. Another thing Trump has positioned us for in the world economy.

ONe thing I'd like to offer is that people think Trump is superficial and you might think this too. But what I'd like to point out is that he usually tweets, says something controversial or makes news in one area to distract the media from covering what he's really doing with the other hand. There's a reason you haven't heard a lot about the energy independence, repatriation of stranded U.S. earnings overseas, deregulation of industry, one on one trade agreements, and so much more. Instead you hear about Stormy Daniels, Robert Meuller, etc. Why would he ever want to fire Meuller when he's good for a 2 week news cycle anytime he wants. There's so much more I could say about the Mueller probe but it is off topic here and would probably cause S4E to have a coniption fit.