Why the ratings plunge?

[RiverDog]

The NFL's TV ratings are way down. The Thursday NIght games, spiced up with the "color rush" designed to attract viewers, is down as much as 17% from last season, as is MNF. The marquee event, Sunday Night Football, is down 11%. Even the morning and afternoon games broadcast by Fox and CBS are down 3-4%.

The experts aren't sure how to explain the drop, but here's a few of the reasons that have been suggested as a cause:

1. The Presidential election. We have them every 4 years and to my knowledge it hasn't affected NFL viewership, but this one's been a very nasty campaign with emotions running high on both sides of the political spectrum.

2. The Kaepernick effect. The theory is that viewers are getting fed up the anthem protests and are tuning out.

3. Baseball. They're having a good post season viewer-wise, and the teams that are involved just happen to be in markets where NFL teams are non-competitive, like Chicago and San Francisco.

4. The Quarterbacks. Peyton retired, Brady was suspended, Romo hurt, Rodgers sucks.

So what's your guess?

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/08/media/t ... index.html

[NorthHawk]

I think there is some of what you listed, but perhaps overexposure might be another factor.
We used to get games only on Sundays. Then Mondays became popular, and now Thursdays are NFL days.
I think if they gave up on Thursday night games, there would be a better product on the field and more anticipation for games on Sundays and Mondays.

I guess we will know if Baseball and the election are having a big effect when each ends. If there is a big jump in viewership after the World Series or the election, we will know they were the cause. If not, it becomes a worrying trend.

[Distant Relative]

I think it is the train wreck of a pathetic Presidential race. According to some it happens every four years, just not to this extreme.

[c_hawkbob]

80% number 1, 20% number 2.

Numbers 3 and 4 are no more significant than they are any other year. When the election is over and people are bored with Kap it'll be business as usual.

[burrrton]

Honest question: why would the election be expected to drop viewership so drastically unless it's a specific game being broadcast opposite a debate or something?

[monkey]

Yeah I'm not seeing what the election has to do with anything at all. Football is an escape from that stupidity.
Everything else mentioned though, has a part.
I'm tired of the politicizing of football with the media fawning over anyone who protests.
I'm equally tired of the over saturation.
Football was once, a Sunday tradition, with a Monday night game added in, now it's on Thursday, in London, and too much.
In the end, it's the some combination of any or all the things mentioned in this thread plus a few others I can think of, that are driving down ratings.

[c_hawkbob]

Games scheduled opposite presidential debates effect viewership of both, which has been exactly the case.

[burrrton]

Games scheduled opposite presidential debates effect viewership of both, which has been exactly the case.

Of course, but we've only had two games that went against a debate, and ratings are down across the board, aren't they?

I'm not arguing it's not having an effect- it seems to be conventional wisdom that it is- but I only know of two games all year that could be affected by it, so I'm not seeing the mechanism, I guess.

[RiverDog]

I'm actually more inclined to buy the baseball excuse, although I do think all of them have had a cumulative effect. Take a look at the teams involved: The Cubs won an exciting playoff game, broke a record for the most viewers on FS-1. Who are they matched up against in their market? The pathetic 1-4 Bears. Or how about San Francisco, home of Colin Krapperdick. The 49'ers have lost 4 straight, and which baseball team is opposite them? The extremely successful and popular Giants. Or how about in Cleveland? Indians vs. Browns? Mets are in, Giants and Jets are a combined 3-7. Dodgers are in, Rams are uninspiring in their first season, struggled to sell season tickets. The Washington Nationals are in, the Deadskins have no franchise quarterback and half the fan base hates their owner. And how well do you think the NFL is playing in St. Louis?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/ ... 5e6b763e2e

[burrrton]

Baseball I can see- more games in competition, and direct competitors for fans' attention. I heard some guy being interviewed on 710 that said in Chicago, *nobody* is paying *any* attention to the Bears this year.

[RiverDog]

Baseball I can see- more games in competition, and direct competitors for fans' attention. I heard some guy being interviewed on 710 that said in Chicago, *nobody* is paying *any* attention to the Bears this year.

Try Cleveland. Do you think that anyone is paying attention to the Browns, especially since the Indians are in the playoffs? Granted, Cleveland is a small market, but when you combine it with places like LA, with a large, baseball friendly Hispanic population that loves the Dodgers and that hasn't exactly warmed up to the Rams and New York, with two dead from the neck up football teams in a baseball hotbed like the Northeast, and it becomes pretty clear that competition from MLB is a major factor in the NFL's ratings dip.

[c_hawkbob]

Games scheduled opposite presidential debates effect viewership of both, which has been exactly the case.

Of course, but we've only had two games that went against a debate, and ratings are down across the board, aren't they?

I'm not arguing it's not having an effect- it seems to be conventional wisdom that it is- but I only know of two games all year that could be affected by it, so I'm not seeing the mechanism, I guess.

Yeah but they're primetime games so the net effect is disproportionately large.

[burrrton]

Yeah but they're primetime games so the net effect is disproportionately large.

Eh, I have no idea how they're measuring it, so this sounds plausible.

[HumanCockroach]

Like losing a football game, there's multiple reasons. Start with all the negative press about concussions, move on to protests by players, pile on with poor scheduling, add in a dose of politics, loss of premier draws =lower ratings.

[FolkCrusader]

One thing to consider is the phenomenal popularity growth football has achieved, especially over the last two years. Nothing can maintain that forever. There has to be some sort of let down at some point. Combine that with several negative issue for many fans. The Kaepernick issue is one. Deflategate was an issue that consumed huge amounts of attention but pretty much no one was happy with the outcome. There is a perception that the games have been, and continue to be, poorly officiated. There have been numerous rule changes in a short period of time making many fans uncertain of what the rules actually are. There are several really poor teams with clearly subpar ownership and management. Many of the games so far this year have been simply awful. I don't think there has been a well played Thursday night game at all. Even when the games stink the announcers keep trying to sell it like they were Billy Mays. In short, for many the product is poor.

Distribution is also changing. There are lots of ways to watch games that are not traditional. I have several friends that never turn off Redzone. My wife listens to half the games on the radio because she is a massive homer and can't stand the announcers. You can watch any game on your cellphone if you want. On and on.

I think the NFL understands lots of this. Tod Leiweke just presented a plan to ownership he spent 14 months creating. Since Tod's skill is fan experience I'm sure he will try to address many of these issues. Goodell has done his job but he has absorbed so many lightning bolts at this point he looks more like a charred and dried out steak than a leader. No doubt the plan is also Tod's final interview to sit in the big chair when they finally turn Goodell loose.

[Oly]

One thing to consider is the phenomenal popularity growth football has achieved, especially over the last two years. Nothing can maintain that forever. There has to be some sort of let down at some point. Combine that with several negative issue for many fans. The Kaepernick issue is one. Deflategate was an issue that consumed huge amounts of attention but pretty much no one was happy with the outcome. There is a perception that the games have been, and continue to be, poorly officiated. There have been numerous rule changes in a short period of time making many fans uncertain of what the rules actually are. There are several really poor teams with clearly subpar ownership and management. Many of the games so far this year have been simply awful. I don't think there has been a well played Thursday night game at all. Even when the games stink the announcers keep trying to sell it like they were Billy Mays. In short, for many the product is poor.

Distribution is also changing. There are lots of ways to watch games that are not traditional. I have several friends that never turn off Redzone. My wife listens to half the games on the radio because she is a massive homer and can't stand the announcers. You can watch any game on your cellphone if you want. On and on.

I think the NFL understands lots of this. Tod Leiweke just presented a plan to ownership he spent 14 months creating. Since Tod's skill is fan experience I'm sure he will try to address many of these issues. Goodell has done his job but he has absorbed so many lightning bolts at this point he looks more like a charred and dried out steak than a leader. No doubt the plan is also Tod's final interview to sit in the big chair when they finally turn Goodell loose.

Great, great post. I agree with all of this (but also think that the baseball postseason is pulling attention...I'm certainly seeing it here in Indiana where people are paying more attention to the Cubs than the Colts).

[c_hawkbob]

The baseball postseason happens every year.

[RiverDog]

The baseball postseason happens every year.

True. But viewership for the MLB is up this season vs. last season, especially in the big markets like Chicago, New York, and LA, while the NFL's ratings for the same period are down. Coincidence? I think not. Being that the two events are watched by the same type of audience, those two facts have to be related. MLB's post season success doesn't explain all of the NFL's ratings drop, but it most certainly is a factor.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/ ... 5cbbaf3e2e

[NorthHawk]

I think FolkCrusader has a point about alternative media. It's something I hadn't considered but we don't seem to have the information about how popular that is. Bad games sure don't help, either.

[Seahawks4Ever]

Alternative media combined with over saturation. Thursday night football has got to go, but it won't because the NFL is too greedy .MNF needs to be moved back to ABC instead of ESPN. There are millions of potential viewers who cannot even get ESPN but everyone can get ABC.

[Hawk Sista]

For me, it is all of the above and the later added reason - over-saturation. The NFL has seeped into our lives too much. Sunday all day, Monday nights and Thursday nights is too much football. Add draft coverage for four days and all the round the clock stuff. I simply don't have time for it all. Even the Super Bowl being a two week long event seems like over-kill to me.

I also really think the NFLPA's most recent agreement is resulting in a lesser quality product. The lack of contact in practice leads to less prepared players and the quality is not there. The spread offenses played in college are starting to impact the NFL players. Or maybe I am just personally too busy. I remember scheduling my day so that I could escape at a good time if football (didn't care what team) was on Monday or Thursday - it now feels like a hassle and I really just don't care as much. A lot of media have been chatting up the why. Is it the election depression, cyber influence, busy lives, football trending out, over saturation, the impact that fantasy has (people following twitter feeds and stat-line updates rather than teams and games??? You name it, it is probably a little bit of all of it. I admit, I am less interested this year and cannot point to a reason.

Still very interested in the HAWKS, but less interested in general.

[obiken]

I think it is the train wreck of a pathetic Presidential race. According to some it happens every four years, just not to this extreme.

I agree, people are over focused on the Clown train!!

[savvyman]

http://blogs.shu.edu/sportspoll/2016/10/27/nfl-tv-ratings-down-fans-cite-a-host-of-factors-led-by-national-anthem-protests/


>>>>South Orange, NJ, October 27, 2016 — Viewership for NFL games is down approximately 12% this season, sending league and club officials in search of reasons. A Seton Hall Sports Poll conducted this week asked people to identify factors accounting for the drop.

Each question was asked separately, allowing for a yes, no or don’t know response. Thus, respondents could weigh in on each of the seven possibilities as a contributing factor without identifying one single factor.

The leading factor – the one receiving the most “yesses” – was players not standing for the national anthem. However, the seven factors all evoked a large number of yes responses, so that even the least chosen, at 33%, represents a lot of fans.

56% of respondents cited players not standing for the anthem, with 50% citing the distraction of the presidential campaign and 47% the controversy over the handling of domestic violence cases involving players.<<<<<<<<<

[RiverDog]

For me, it is all of the above and the later added reason - over-saturation. The NFL has seeped into our lives too much. Sunday all day, Monday nights and Thursday nights is too much football. Add draft coverage for four days and all the round the clock stuff. I simply don't have time for it all. Even the Super Bowl being a two week long event seems like over-kill to me.

My dad's been deceased for 30 years, but he predicted back then that football might just kill the goose that laid the golden egg. He compared it to boxing, which used to be on national TV 6 nights a week back in the early 60's. Like the demise of football ratings, there was more than one reason that led to the decline in popularity of boxing, but one of them was over saturation.

I don't pay any attention at all to the pregame Super Bowl crap, even when the Hawks are participating.

[c_hawkbob]

For me, it is all of the above and the later added reason - over-saturation. The NFL has seeped into our lives too much. Sunday all day, Monday nights and Thursday nights is too much football. Add draft coverage for four days and all the round the clock stuff. I simply don't have time for it all. Even the Super Bowl being a two week long event seems like over-kill to me.

For me there's still no such thing as too much football, but I can see how it might be a bit much for other folks. As for two weeks before the SB, I like it better. If the Seahawks are in it. Otherwise it's just a two week break from real football.

My dad's been deceased for 30 years, but he predicted back then that football might just kill the goose that laid the golden egg. He compared it to boxing, which used to be on national TV 6 nights a week back in the early 60's. Like the demise of football ratings, there was more than one reason that led to the decline in popularity of boxing, but one of them was over saturation.

I don't pay any attention at all to the pregame Super Bowl crap, even when the Hawks are participating.

I still don't buy that the ratings plunge is a big deal. They have all these same discussions every 4 years. Next year it'll be back to business as usual.

[RiverDog]

I still don't buy that the ratings plunge is a big deal. They have all these same discussions every 4 years. Next year it'll be back to business as usual.

I don't think that 'the plunge' is as exaggerated as the numbers would suggest due to the POTUS election and the fact that baseball has some very favorable teams (from a viewership perspective) participating in their postseason that won't happen every year. But I do think that we've seen it peak, at least in this country. The demographics of the audience is changing and the different viewing platforms that have emerged is going to curb this steady rise in television ratings that the sport has enjoyed over the course of the past 5 or 6 decades.

[NorthHawk]

I'm watching some college football right now and there is an enthusiasm quality that isn't apparent in the NFL.
It's exciting in its own way because anything can and often does happen.

Does anyone know if College Football ratings are down, too? If not, then over saturation I proposed earlier might not be much of a factor.

[Zorn76]

Eh, the long term prognosis for the league is still plenty good. There's also increasingly more entertainment options, particularly for the younger (20's) demographic. Current events do play a part, but I don't believe will have a lasting effect.

[obiken]

Eh, the long term prognosis for the league is still plenty good. There's also increasingly more entertainment options, particularly for the younger (20's) demographic. Current events do play a part, but I don't believe will have a lasting effect.

Its mostly the Anthem thing. 30% is the election.

[RiverDog]

Does anyone know if College Football ratings are down, too? If not, then over saturation I proposed earlier might not be much of a factor.

The playoff games and NC games took a big dip last season.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... /78178798/

The sport in general is in decline.