Preseason Expectations vs. Actual Results

[River Dog]

With nothing else better to do, I thought that I would re-visit our preseason expectations and see if the team lived up to them or not. Here was mine, taken from a previous thread on the subject. I've highlighted those I was correct on in green and the ones I missed in red:

Broncos W
Pats W
Fins W
Lions L
Giants W
Niners L
Falcons W
Bills L
Rams W
Niners L
Cards W
Jets W
Cards L
Packers L
Vikings L
Bears W
Rams W

10-7 with a wild card entry. Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind.

I'm not bragging, rather using it as a demonstration that if I am by any means representative of the typical Seahawks fan, which I believe that I am, our team pretty much lived up to expectations. And yeah, I should have laid some money down on my over/under win hunch that the bookies assigned to us at the start of the season. It seems laughable in retrospect.

[NorthHawk]

I believe I thought the ceiling was 9 wins and a floor of 7 so they exceeded my expectations.
There might still be a bumpy ride the first few games again next year and depending on who we have at QB, the win total might change.

[Aseahawkfan]

The league is built to have a lot of middling teams. That's why being a middling team is often worse than being a bad team. Middling teams never have draft position to acquire high quality talent, so they stay middling teams. Teams that reach a high level usually have great drafting when they dump hard, followed by periods of high level competitiveness, especially if they draft a high quality QB. So 6 to 10 wins is that mediocre middle team (maybe 7 to 11 with 17 games) where you're getting bad draft position and not a real contender that I refer to as non-contending purgatory.

What caused our middling record? I would say Geno who has a sort of floor of play at this point where he's never going to be a Super Bowl QB, but he performs well enough to keep you in that middle maybe we'll make the playoffs in a weak division or as a low wild card seed. Given nearly half the conference makes it into the playoffs making a playoff spot a 43.75 percent chance at this point, which is no longer impressive. Then pair that with an improved defense and a weak schedule with division opponents that were weaker than last year and that's how we get a middling record.

We're now in a fight to see if Frisco can turn around their problems or if their talent is starting to age out. Same with the Rams. Then it will come down to who drafts better to rebuild.

I don't believe in the Cards much at all because their owners are terrible and always have been. Cardinals owners are like the Mariners owners: content to field a team and make some money rather than taking any big risks or make smart moves to be great.

How our record moves depends on what they do at QB and how well they assess needs and draft. At the moment I see no clear catalyst for the record to get any better and if we keep Geno, it shouldn't get much worse.

[4XPIPS]

With nothing else better to do, I thought that I would re-visit our preseason expectations and see if the team lived up to them or not. Here was mine, taken from a previous thread on the subject. I've highlighted those I was correct on in green and the ones I missed in red:

Broncos W
Pats W
Fins W
Lions L
Giants W
Niners L
Falcons W
Bills L
Rams W
Niners L
Cards W
Jets W
Cards L
Packers L
Vikings L
Bears W
Rams W

10-7 with a wild card entry. Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind.

I'm not bragging, rather using it as a demonstration that if I am by any means representative of the typical Seahawks fan, which I believe that I am, our team pretty much lived up to expectations. And yeah, I should have laid some money down on my over/under win hunch that the bookies assigned to us at the start of the season. It seems laughable in retrospect.

I was probably more optimistic at times but I felt 10 wins is where we would land as well. I was jumping for Mike Macdonald well before we ever let Pete Carroll go, or even thought of him not being our coach. Imagine if our Offensive Redzone was 20% better than what it was this season. Goodness, Grubb would still be here, and we probably would have taken the division. None the less, I am happy where we finished and Mike Macdonald deserves to be applauded for it. Rookie HCs can sometimes turn into a disaster quick.

[Aseahawkfan]

We may at least have one of the better head coaches given MacDonald was able to get 10 wins out of a team with no real running game and turnaround a defense with thin LBer corps and a regressing secondary player like Woolen as well as all the injuries to the defense. That part was real promising. What will MacDonald do with this defense once he starts to install players that fit his scheme and vision? That part looks real, real promising. I know every defensive coach wants a run game to kill clock, so his defense can hold the lead. I'm betting MacDonald really wants to get the LB corps built up to handle TEs and kill the run. I'm looking forward to seeing how well Schneider and MacDonald do together in the draft working at it for an entire offseason. MacDonald has had a chance to really see the team and get to know them. So he should be far more prepared this year come free agency and draft to make recommendations and assess talent.

This defense was bad for a long time. He finally turned it into a respectable unit in year one. That was real promising.

[4XPIPS]

We may at least have one of the better head coaches given MacDonald was able to get 10 wins out of a team with no real running game and turnaround a defense with thin LBer corps and a regressing secondary player like Woolen as well as all the injuries to the defense. That part was real promising. What will MacDonald do with this defense once he starts to install players that fit his scheme and vision? That part looks real, real promising. I know every defensive coach wants a run game to kill clock, so his defense can hold the lead. I'm betting MacDonald really wants to get the LB corps built up to handle TEs and kill the run. I'm looking forward to seeing how well Schneider and MacDonald do together in the draft working at it for an entire offseason. MacDonald has had a chance to really see the team and get to know them. So he should be far more prepared this year come free agency and draft to make recommendations and assess talent.

This defense was bad for a long time. He finally turned it into a respectable unit in year one. That was real promising.

I am liking who we have interior linebackers i EJ4 and Knight. EJ4 was an excellent pick up, and Knight can only get better with time and experience. What we need is that outside edge rusher that can wreck teams. A Hutchinson or Bosa type of player. We don't have that one person, and through out our season we had spurts here and there from various players, but there was no consistency at edge rushing. I do have to agree with Woolen. He can become a liability at times. I can see them drafting his replacement this upcoming draft.

[Aseahawkfan]

I'm really looking forward to seeing what type of players MacDonald likes. Pete loved secondary players. CBs and safeties. We drafted corners almost every year. What positions will MacDonald favor? What will they look like? Pete valued athleticism and potential above all. Will MacDonald value that or a mix of ability and proven production? I was real tired of the Malik McDowell mistakes and drafting Bruce Irvin higher than needed strictly due to speed and athleticism and SPARQ scores. If I were a GM, I think I'd value production and scheme fit above pure athleticism. Athleticism is one aspect of a player, but we've seen many times guys that don't score high on athleticism produce at a high level or at least have long, solid careers due to consistent, hard play. Scheme fit is important as well. You get a player who can perform well in a given scheme even if limited, it can add a lot to the team.

[NorthHawk]

It was said after Pete was fired that JS makes all of the coaching and player personnel decisions, so we may not get a feel for what types of players MacDonald likes as he won’t be making the decisions. MacDonald can and probably will suggest players and types but if there is a debate, JS wins. I think it will probably be more of getting a feeling of what player groups or types JS likes rather than MacDonald.

[Aseahawkfan]

It was said after Pete was fired that JS makes all of the coaching and player personnel decisions, so we may not get a feel for what types of players MacDonald likes as he won’t be making the decisions. MacDonald can and probably will suggest players and types but if there is a debate, JS wins. I think it will probably be more of getting a feeling of what player groups or types JS likes rather than MacDonald.

Schneider is running the show, but he knows to listen to his head coach for needs and scheme fit. I can't see Schneider turning into a Ruskell where he deliberately tries to undermine and sabotage his head coach believing he's the one making it all work.

[NorthHawk]

I guess it comes down to them agreeing on an identity on both sides of the ball and acquiring players that fit that identity.
The worst case would be getting players that are talented but don't fit. JS runs the draft, so we will see how it turns out. If it's more of the same ignoring or passing by early good players along the IOL but selecting others late in the draft then we will know nothing has changed and will be in for more turmoil up front. At least for another year.

[Aseahawkfan]

I guess it comes down to them agreeing on an identity on both sides of the ball and acquiring players that fit that identity.
The worst case would be getting players that are talented but don't fit. JS runs the draft, so we will see how it turns out. If it's more of the same ignoring or passing by early good players along the IOL but selecting others late in the draft then we will know nothing has changed and will be in for more turmoil up front. At least for another year.

I think this will be the year we really see how that relationship will work between Mike and John. Last year Mike came in a little late, didn't know the team well, and had to make assessments based on practice, film, and the like while he installed his schemes and worked with a new coaching staff. This year he should start to have a better idea of his players and what he needs to make everything work. He should be able to tell John what he needs and wants.

[River Dog]

I guess it comes down to them agreeing on an identity on both sides of the ball and acquiring players that fit that identity.
The worst case would be getting players that are talented but don't fit. JS runs the draft, so we will see how it turns out. If it's more of the same ignoring or passing by early good players along the IOL but selecting others late in the draft then we will know nothing has changed and will be in for more turmoil up front. At least for another year.

I think this will be the year we really see how that relationship will work between Mike and John. Last year Mike came in a little late, didn't know the team well, and had to make assessments based on practice, film, and the like while he installed his schemes and worked with a new coaching staff. This year he should start to have a better idea of his players and what he needs to make everything work. He should be able to tell John what he needs and wants.

Not only did Mac come in a little late and didn't know the team that well, but it was also his very first year as a head coach at any level. If he's like most of us, that year under his belt, and a relatively successful year at that, is going to give him a little more confidence and assertiveness in his relationship with the GM.

I do think JS is going to be calling the shots on the QB position. Mac said as much when he was asked about Geno's future the other day, saying that it was a "Seahawk decision"