Thread Revisit; 2024 QB Draft Class

[4XPIPS]

I plan to revisit this thread in the next 3 yeas and see how much we can all be correct, wrong or just ambitious.

Drafting a QB in the first round speaks a lot for any organization, and it shows the organization is banking a lot of their hopes on the most important position. It means you are relying heavily on this player to develop and lead you to Superbowl, and hopefully having a franchise cornerstone for years to come. However, as they always say history can tells us much about the future. Most recent 1st round QBs drafted haven't always panned out to be the future of any organization, and are getting ditched quicker than before.

No can argue this draft class of 1983
John Elway (1)
Jim Kelly (14)
Tony Eason (15)
Ken O'Brien (24)
Dan Marino (27)

There have been many great 1st round draft classes to go along with this, but the way organizations react to future draft prospects and how quickly coaching staff changes it would seem in today's NFL there will never have a group of stars to come out the 1st round again like the 1983 draft

Let's look at more recent draft class

2021 NFL 1st Round QBs
Trevor Lawrence (1) Not setting the world on fire, but still wondering if the Jags will offer a contract or pick up his 5th year option

Zach Wilson (2) - Traded for scraps(7th Round Pick) to the Broncos

Trey Lance (3) - Traded for some value (4th round Pick ) to the Cowboys

Justin Fields (11) - Traded for scraps(6th Round Pick) to the Steelers

Mac Jones (15) -Traded for scraps(6th round pick) to the Jaguars

This 1st round QB class doesn't seem to hold up very well.

Now onto this 2024 Draft, just the 1st QBs. Just for fun, and no one can be right or wrong on this because none of us have a crystal ball but let's say the next 3 years, who will become:

Future Star?
Average Starter?
Backup?
Our of the League?

2024 NFL QBs in the 1st Round
Caleb Williams (1) Chicago Bears

Jadyen Daniels (2) Washington Commanders

Drake Maye (3) New England Patriots

Michael Penix Jr (8) Atlanta Falcons

JJ McCarthy (10) Minnesota Vikings

Bo Nix (12) Denver Broncos

It will be fun to revisit this in next three years.

[River_Dog]

Let's hope that we're all around in another three years. We've had a lot of posters leave over the past few years.

[NorthHawk]

THAT'S the Debbie Downie we've come to know!

[NorthHawk]

I plan to revisit this thread in the next 3 yeas and see how much we can all be correct, wrong or just ambitious.

Drafting a QB in the first round speaks a lot for any organization, and it shows the organization is banking a lot of their hopes on the most important position. It means you are relying heavily on this player to develop and lead you to Superbowl, and hopefully having a franchise cornerstone for years to come. However, as they always say history can tells us much about the future. Most recent 1st round QBs drafted haven't always panned out to be the future of any organization, and are getting ditched quicker than before.

No can argue this draft class of 1983
John Elway (1)
Jim Kelly (14)
Tony Eason (15)
Ken O'Brien (24)
Dan Marino (27)

There have been many great 1st round draft classes to go along with this, but the way organizations react to future draft prospects and how quickly coaching staff changes it would seem in today's NFL there will never have a group of stars to come out the 1st round again like the 1983 draft

Let's look at more recent draft class

2021 NFL 1st Round QBs
Trevor Lawrence (1) Not setting the world on fire, but still wondering if the Jags will offer a contract or pick up his 5th year option

Zach Wilson (2) - Traded for scraps(7th Round Pick) to the Broncos

Trey Lance (3) - Traded for some value (4th round Pick ) to the Cowboys

Justin Fields (11) - Traded for scraps(6th Round Pick) to the Steelers

Mac Jones (15) -Traded for scraps(6th round pick) to the Jaguars

This 1st round QB class doesn't seem to hold up very well.

Now onto this 2024 Draft, just the 1st QBs. Just for fun, and no one can be right or wrong on this because none of us have a crystal ball but let's say the next 3 years, who will become:

Future Star?
Average Starter?
Backup?
Our of the League?

2024 NFL QBs in the 1st Round
Caleb Williams (1) Chicago Bears

Jadyen Daniels (2) Washington Commanders

Drake Maye (3) New England Patriots

Michael Penix Jr (8) Atlanta Falcons

JJ McCarthy (10) Minnesota Vikings

Bo Nix (12) Denver Broncos

It will be fun to revisit this in next three years.

I firmly believe that a players success is largely dependent upon the situation he lands. If his skills match what the teams Offense wants to do and if there is a solid team infrastructure in place to allow him to develop and thrive.
Too many QBs get thrown into the fire far too early or left to fend for themselves only to be tossed away as busts when things don't work out.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I really thought Mac Jones would turn into something.

I hope to be lurking to check on this year's class. Of those QBs, I am most high Daniels. I watched just about every one of his LSU games. A bad game was a rarity for him, and he played well against tough competition. He'll be the one I'll be surprised the most if he doesn't make it.

[4XPIPS]

Let's hope that we're all around in another three years. We've had a lot of posters leave over the past few years.

Next 3 years, heck I even took the last 8 years away from this forum and came back to it and it is still ticking, so I wouldn't think the next three years it will be completely dead.

Let's think about it, since the Seattle PI days and till now we have had Pete Carroll. This is a new era of Seahawks football, and I think it may bring back some old posters, again there is that possibility.

[4XPIPS]

I firmly believe that a players success is largely dependent upon the situation he lands. If his skills match what the teams Offense wants to do and if there is a solid team infrastructure in place to allow him to develop and thrive.
Too many QBs get thrown into the fire far too early or left to fend for themselves only to be tossed away as busts when things don't work out.

Yes but look at Trey Lance. He wasn't thrown into the fire, and before his injury he wasn't really blowing anyone's socks off. His play was pretty average at best.

Even Kenny Pickett who was playing behind a good offensive line, and had good offensive weapons couldn't excel into a solid starter.

For the most part I agree with you that a crappy situation will certainly ruin a 1st round QBs' chances. I mean Bryce Young is living proof of this.

[4XPIPS]

I really thought Mac Jones would turn into something.

I hope to be lurking to check on this year's class. Of those QBs, I am most high Daniels. I watched just about every one of his LSU games. A bad game was a rarity for him, and he played well against tough competition. He'll be the one I'll be surprised the most if he doesn't make it.

I watched Daniels when he was at ASU(when I was living in Phoenix AZ) and man he was a stick, looked like a clothing hangar out there with a jersey on it. But after a few years he has put the weight on and looks a lot more durable I like his play, but worries me most about running QBs the risk of injury and wear and tear it has on them. I think Daniels could be the next younger version of Lamar Jackson.

[River_Dog]

Let's hope that we're all around in another three years. We've had a lot of posters leave over the past few years.

Next 3 years, heck I even took the last 8 years away from this forum and came back to it and it is still ticking, so I wouldn't think the next three years it will be completely dead.

Let's think about it, since the Seattle PI days and till now we have had Pete Carroll. This is a new era of Seahawks football, and I think it may bring back some old posters, again there is that possibility.

Yeah, I was being a bit sarcastic. Us old hands will be here come hell or high water.

I sure hope you're right. I miss a lot of those old personalities. Irish Greg, an old hand from the PI days, just recently decided to get back into the fray, so who knows.

[NorthHawk]

Yes but look at Trey Lance. He wasn't thrown into the fire, and before his injury he wasn't really blowing anyone's socks off. His play was pretty average at best.

Even Kenny Pickett who was playing behind a good offensive line, and had good offensive weapons couldn't excel into a solid starter.

For the most part I agree with you that a crappy situation will certainly ruin a 1st round QBs' chances. I mean Bryce Young is living proof of this.

Sure, there are always going to be bad QB choices made in the draft. After all it's about potential, not assured success.
But look at the most well run Offense oriented teams and they usually have a solid foundation for the young QBs to succeed.
This includes an ownership that is willing to wait a year or two for the player to develop to the point of being able to handle the extreme stress and requirements that come with being an NFL QB.
I wonder how many QBs could have been team changers if they had time to really get used to the game before being thrown into the fire - players like David Carr as an easy example and how well
some of the best QBs in NFL history would have done if they had landed in Cleveland during that teams most dysfunctional years and not with the teams that allowed them to thrive.

[River_Dog]

Sure, there are always going to be bad QB choices made in the draft. After all it's about potential, not assured success.
But look at the most well run Offense oriented teams and they usually have a solid foundation for the young QBs to succeed.
This includes an ownership that is willing to wait a year or two for the player to develop to the point of being able to handle the extreme stress and requirements that come with being an NFL QB.
I wonder how many QBs could have been team changers if they had time to really get used to the game before being thrown into the fire - players like David Carr as an easy example and how well
some of the best QBs in NFL history would have done if they had landed in Cleveland during that teams most dysfunctional years and not with the teams that allowed them to thrive.

I think a lot of what you say is true. It's no coincidence that Aaron Rodgers succeeded with a team with a good foundation in the Packers, or that Mahomes stepped into a great offensive team with the Chiefs. But there are some teams that just can't seem to get it right. The aforementioned Browns in particular have made some bad decisions at quarterback. Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden, and Johnny Manziel all drafted with a first-round pick and didn't succeed in Cleveland or anywhere else. Now, after burning a #1 overall on Baker Mayfield, they traded him for a bag of peanuts while they sold the farm for Deshawn Watson.

I'm good with how we're approaching the QB position. Build a good foundation and wait for an opportunity to get a QB. 

[NorthHawk]

The Browns go back to Bernie Kosar with QB's not reaching their potential.
He did fairly well, but how well would he have done if he ended up in a different organization?
We'll never know, of course but we can surmise his stats would have been much better.

[River_Dog]

The Browns go back to Bernie Kosar with QB's not reaching their potential.
He did fairly well, but how well would he have done if he ended up in a different organization?
We'll never know, of course but we can surmise his stats would have been much better.

Kosar played for a different Browns franchise, the one that is now called the Baltimore Ravens, but I get your drift. The city hasn't had a decent quarterback since Otto Graham.

[Aseahawkfan]

Not a big worrier about first round QBs. These hyped classes like make me not want to draft a first round QB more. I still remember the 2012 QB class being touted as the greatest since 1983. Andrew Luck, RG3, other forgotten QBs, and Russell. Russell was the best performer of that hyped up 2012 QB class. The 3rd round guy.

I'm not a big believer in first round QBs. Some can be great and you have a better chance of finding a great one in the top 1 or 2 picks. But the best QBs in NFL history are Tom Brady and Joe Montana in my opinion, a 6th and a 3rd round pick. Seattle's greatest QB is a 3rd round pick. I'd just assume John Schneider find a guy he thinks can do the job regardless of what round he finds him in.