Next up: the draft

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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby MackStrongIsMyHero » Tue Apr 04, 2023 4:45 am

To be fair, c_bob said our QB had one of the statistically best seasons in team history. Even though we won and held up our end, sort of, we still need a loss by the Packers to a Lions team that had nothing but pride (Lions, hah; I kill myself) to play for. Not upset they stuck it to ARod though, but I still call that backing in, so I agree there.

I don't think Pete thinks the team is all that far away from competing. He competed all last year and will this coming season. it's why I think the draft could very well go a different way than QB at 5. I thought this mock was interesting from FieldGulls:

Round 1 OG Peter Skoronski - Northwestern

Round 1 DT Bryan Bresee - Clemson

Round 2 LB Drew Sanders - Arkansas

Round 2 WR Cedric Tillman - Tennassee

Round 3 S JL Skinner - Boise State

Round 4 RB Tank Bigsby - Auburn

Round 5 DT Keondre Coburn - Texas

Round 6 OT Nick Saldiveri - Old Dominion

Round 7 Edge Nick Hampton - Appalachian State

*Edit: Don't know why they didn't make the 2nd Round 5 pick.

I wouldn't be upset if they went this route, and it would say they intend to make noise right now.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Tue Apr 04, 2023 5:31 am

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:To be fair, c_bob said our QB had one of the statistically best seasons in team history.


Ahh, I stand corrected. My apologies to C-Bob. That's what I get for reading what it is I think I want to read.

Nevertheless, I'd argue that a successful season by a quarterback is directly related to the success of the team, and by that standard, it wasn't one of the best QB seasons in team history.

Regarding your mock, I've heard Skoronski's name mentioned in a lot of circles. But I don't think there's a snowball's chance in the lowlands that he goes in the top 10, but he might be an option for us at #20.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Tue Apr 04, 2023 6:57 am

Pete has thought we were only a couple of players away from challenging for a championship since 2015 and look at the results.
Geno had a great first 10 games but he didn't do very well the last 8 (including the playoff game) and was real lucky with dropped interceptions.
So what Geno will we get this year - the first 10 game Geno or the last 8 game Geno, and who will he be 2 years from now at 35 years old when the rookie DL's we will surely draft be starting to really hit their stride?
It's a big gamble to not take a top QB when we can because a life long journeyman QB who hadn't had regular starts for 7 years isn't someone to really hang you hat on to be the great QB we need to take the next step from just making the playoffs or being competitive to actually becoming a SB threat. Now more than ever it's a QB driven league and those with the best QBs have the best chance.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby Hawktawk » Tue Apr 04, 2023 7:26 am

Aseahawkfan wrote:I'm with c-bob on this one. League is weak right now or in transition, however you want to see it. With a good defensive draft and improvement from last year's draft, we're competing this coming year. There are not dominant teams right now. There are teams with some standout players that are up and coming. But the only truly somewhat dominant team is KC and even they have come close to losing and aren't anywhere near what I consider unbeatable. They barely won the Super Bowl last year against a young Eagles team.

The NFC is definitely wide open. Frisco almost went all the way without a great QB. We can easily step up and take it all the way to the Super Bowl if Pete can get the defense rebuilt into even a top 10 unit.

It's a wide open NFL. One more good draft and Pete finally getting the defense back to his expected level of play, we're right there.


I agree with you and Bob. IMO were a lot closer than some think. We held the world champs to 24 points in an ice bowl while leading handily in time of possession and also first downs 17 to 14. Couldn't crack the 30 yard line but still... baby steps.The Jets game was a solid beating of a road favorite still in contention. Against the 9ers we held a 17-14 halftime lead and were in the red zone driving for a tying score late in the 3rd when an eagle eyed ref spotted man downfield changing a 3rd and 2 inside the 10 to
2nd and forever. Next play protection collapses for a strip sack and game over. Geno had something like 2 incompletions and a 139 qbr up till that disaster.

We need defensive front 7. I think we will get it. We need fundamental improvements in tackling even more.

. We need interior O line, a center at least. We need Walker to be healthy or another first rate option.

We need Geno to be good geno, not Blake Bortles.

We had a 7-9 team in 2011. In 2012 11-5 last second loss in the divisional. 2013....
We arent that far off in this whacky league. Were #2 in our division already.
GO HAWKS!
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby tarlhawk » Tue Apr 04, 2023 7:32 am

Using the PFN (Pro Football Network) Mock Draft Simulator I made a single trade with the Bengals giving our #20 pick for #28 and #60 and mocked our draft as

#5 Jalen Carter (Baggage and all...still a top selection)


#28 Jalin Hyatt (WR3 till Lockett retires)


#37 John Michael Schmitz (Evan Brown becomes excellent depth at C/G)


#52 Calijah Kancey (DT with PRush skills)


#60 Zach Charbonnet (UCLA ...good complement to Walker III)


#83 Daiyan Henley (Local *WSU* sideline to sideline range/speed)


#123 Moro Ojomo (Solid Tweener *DT/DE rotational depth)


#151 Olusegun Oluwatimi (notch below Schmitz...won Rimington (top Center ) and Outland Trophy as top interior Lineman *Offensive/Defensive* for 2022...solid credentials)


#154 Braeden Daniels (College RT/LT expected to kick inside as back-up Guard)


#198 Aiden O'Connell (An "avg" Purdue QB for training camp duties)


Realistic draft?...not likely but the one thing I noticed was no matter how many times I mocked using the PFN and PFF sims I came away with good "mocks". I did the same last year and Boye Mafe and Tariq Woolen were both "common" names in my selections...but I noticed I "had to" draft Woolen consistently higher than the 5th round where Seattle got him.
This draft has the "potential" to be better than 2022...selection wise...and offers high entertainment "drama" for most sports fans. Go Hawks
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Tue Apr 04, 2023 8:35 am

Not realistic for the first pick.
I've found that the simulators are fun to use, but very unrealistic. I did one and traded down a bunch of times and ended up with Levis, Schmitz, Kancey, and Mingo along with 2 extra 1st round picks and 4 extra 2nd round picks for next year.
Basically what I did was every time a trade was presented if it included a 1st or 2nd round pick for next year I took it just to see what would happen.
The other issue is how some of the players are ranked. I'm not sure some of these simulators have adjusted their boards since the combine or pro days.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby MackStrongIsMyHero » Tue Apr 04, 2023 8:57 am

RiverDog wrote:Ahh, I stand corrected. My apologies to C-Bob. That's what I get for reading what it is I think I want to read.

Nevertheless, I'd argue that a successful season by a quarterback is directly related to the success of the team, and by that standard, it wasn't one of the best QB seasons in team history.

Regarding your mock, I've heard Skoronski's name mentioned in a lot of circles. But I don't think there's a snowball's chance in the lowlands that he goes in the top 10, but he might be an option for us at #20.


I'm sure I have done and will do the same at some point.

I agree; I don't think you spend a top 5 or 10 pick on him. I should have said the author threw in the caveat that it's pick he'd prefer after a trade down into 10-15. If he's the next He Who Shall Not Be Named guard, he'd be worth it.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Tue Apr 04, 2023 9:09 am

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:I'm sure I have done and will do the same at some point.

I agree; I don't think you spend a top 5 or 10 pick on him. I should have said the author threw in the caveat that it's pick he'd prefer after a trade down into 10-15. If he's the next He Who Shall Not Be Named guard, he'd be worth it.


10-15 would still be a tad too high for an interior offensive lineman. Not very many at that position go in the top half of the first round.

I've been leaning towards that center out of Minnesota, Schmitz? They say that he has a bit of a nasty streak, and so long as that doesn't manifest itself into stupid PF penalties, I'd love to see our OL get some of that nastiness back. But I'd be happy with that guy, too.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby TriCitySam » Tue Apr 04, 2023 10:12 am

Several decent centers that I've been focused on since Dec in the 2nd round: Schmitz, Tippman and Wypler, along with a couple guards. Avila and maybe Mauch (who has played multiple spots). I'm of the belief if we get a top-end edge and/or interior DL along with the above, we could be in a good spot.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Tue Apr 04, 2023 10:33 am

TriCitySam wrote:Several decent centers that I've been focused on since Dec in the 2nd round: Schmitz, Tippman and Wypler, along with a couple guards. Avila and maybe Mauch (who has played multiple spots). I'm of the belief if we get a top-end edge and/or interior DL along with the above, we could be in a good spot.


I agree. For once, I'd like to see us use the interior offensive line positions as more than just a refuge for busted tackles. Let's draft a guy that has played the position for several years and excelled at it.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby MackStrongIsMyHero » Tue Apr 04, 2023 11:07 am

RiverDog wrote:10-15 would still be a tad too high for an interior offensive lineman. Not very many at that position go in the top half of the first round.

I've been leaning towards that center out of Minnesota, Schmitz? They say that he has a bit of a nasty streak, and so long as that doesn't manifest itself into stupid PF penalties, I'd love to see our OL get some of that nastiness back. But I'd be happy with that guy, too.


It is a tad high, and they don't, but if he's gone before your next pick and he's your guy, then drafting him a tad high isn't a big deal in my book.

I'm big on Schmitz, too; would be nice to have a little more than a finesse center. Those guys have their place, but a bully who can also make the calls would be awesome.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Tue Apr 04, 2023 5:57 pm

RiverDog wrote:10-15 would still be a tad too high for an interior offensive lineman. Not very many at that position go in the top half of the first round.

I've been leaning towards that center out of Minnesota, Schmitz? They say that he has a bit of a nasty streak, and so long as that doesn't manifest itself into stupid PF penalties, I'd love to see our OL get some of that nastiness back. But I'd be happy with that guy, too.


MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:It is a tad high, and they don't, but if he's gone before your next pick and he's your guy, then drafting him a tad high isn't a big deal in my book.

I'm big on Schmitz, too; would be nice to have a little more than a finesse center. Those guys have their place, but a bully who can also make the calls would be awesome.


If they have Skoronski ranked at the top of his position and if he's available between 10-15, then I'm good with them pulling the trigger on him, too. I'm not getting hung up on taking a player a few spots higher than they're projected. I'm just saying that it's rare when an interior offensive lineman goes that high, and that they'd better be damn sure that he's their man if they spend that high of a pick on him.

It seems like a lot of us in here like Schmitz. If our brain trust likes him as much as some of us in here do, he should be available at #20 and might even be there for us at #37.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Tue Apr 04, 2023 9:39 pm

I’m not sure Schmitz is as good as some of the other Centers we’ve passed by in previous drafts, but he’s probably going to be better than the series of former Guards and Tackles we’ve dumped in that spot in the hopes of finding one. What concerns me is our FO hasn’t considered Center to be important since this regime started here and think maybe they will ignore it again or wait until the last pick to take whoever remains just because they need a C.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Wed Apr 05, 2023 3:38 am

NorthHawk wrote:I’m not sure Schmitz is as good as some of the other Centers we’ve passed by in previous drafts, but he’s probably going to be better than the series of former Guards and Tackles we’ve dumped in that spot in the hopes of finding one. What concerns me is our FO hasn’t considered Center to be important since this regime started here and think maybe they will ignore it again or wait until the last pick to take whoever remains just because they need a C.


Hopefully, that trend was broken last year when they finally spent some draft capital on the offensive line after neglecting it for years.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Wed Apr 05, 2023 6:23 am

They drafted OTs early in a number of drafts. They just never worked out or didn't let them develop.
They've almost ignored the Center position and threw former Guards or Tackles at it in the apparent assumption that any body would do.
We currently have a FA signing from Detroit who was a Guard but played Center last year and did OK. Will he be another BJ Finney or will he actually be competitive on our team?
Players like Schmitz and Wypler have a lot more experience at that position albeit at a lower level of play, but they've had time to really develop and learn some of the techniques that converts might not just yet.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Wed Apr 05, 2023 6:43 am

NorthHawk wrote:They drafted OTs early in a number of drafts. They just never worked out or didn't let them develop.
They've almost ignored the Center position and threw former Guards or Tackles at it in the apparent assumption that any body would do.
We currently have a FA signing from Detroit who was a Guard but played Center last year and did OK. Will he be another BJ Finney or will he actually be competitive on our team?
Players like Schmitz and Wypler have a lot more experience at that position albeit at a lower level of play, but they've had time to really develop and learn some of the techniques that converts might not just yet.


Prior to last season's draft, I did some research on our drafting by position over the previous 6 drafts, weighting each positional selection by the round they were drafted in, determined an average round for each position group then ranked them. Running backs, wide receivers, defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs all ranked higher. Offensive linemen ranked dead last. I also noted how we hadn't dedicated a first-round pick to an offensive lineman since we drafted Germain Ifedi in 2016. It was no wonder that Russell Wilson was frustrated with our lack of emphasis on the offensive line.

Hopefully, with the 2022 draft, that trend has changed.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby obiken » Wed Apr 05, 2023 7:27 am

The only way I flip out is IF we trade down. The smart play is Anderson, of Alabama. However, I have have faith that Pete, who could screw up my wet dream with Kate Upton, will trade down passing on a pass rusher who has 6 more sacks per year than anyone else. Ala Fletcher Cox.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Wed Apr 05, 2023 7:42 am

obiken wrote:The only way I flip out is IF we trade down. The smart play is Anderson, of Alabama. However, I have have faith that Pete, who could screw up my wet dream with Kate Upton, will trade down passing on a pass rusher who has 6 more sacks per year than anyone else. Ala Fletcher Cox.


Will Anderson is the best non quarterback in the draft and I'd be delighted if he fell to us at #5 overall. But unless they trade out of it, I fully expect the Cards to scoop him up.

A wet dream with Kate Upton, huh? :D
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Wed Apr 05, 2023 7:50 am

The smart play is to get a QB if they aren't all gone as that will set the team up for the next decade or more. DL don't usually play every snap on Defense and often rotate in and out to play maybe 75% of the game if they are good enough. There is a reason after all for QBs to be paid the most on a team (as a group).
Anderson would be a solid pick, but he won't be a real dominating OLB from what I can gather. He's got very good skills, but I have doubts he will be as effective as TJ Watt has been. But I could be wrong. So if we don't get a QB, dropping down might be the best thing. However, I would try to move up to get that one player who can make a real difference for 10 or more years at QB and while we have the ammunition to do so.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Wed Apr 05, 2023 8:25 am

NorthHawk wrote:The smart play is to get a QB if they aren't all gone as that will set the team up for the next decade or more. DL don't usually play every snap on Defense and often rotate in and out to play maybe 75% of the game if they are good enough. There is a reason after all for QBs to be paid the most on a team (as a group).
Anderson would be a solid pick, but he won't be a real dominating OLB from what I can gather. He's got very good skills, but I have doubts he will be as effective as TJ Watt has been. But I could be wrong. So if we don't get a QB, dropping down might be the best thing. However, I would try to move up to get that one player who can make a real difference for 10 or more years at QB and while we have the ammunition to do so.


I agree, but I don't want to draft a QB just for the sake of drafting one. If the right one is there at #5, then by all means, pull the trigger on him. But with 3 of the 4 teams picking ahead of us having a need for a QB, there's a good chance that 'our guy' will be gone by then. The next best option would be Anderson. I also wouldn't object to dropping down or trading up, either, if the price is right.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Wed Apr 05, 2023 8:32 am

I believe that any of the top 4 can succeed as a top QB if they are in the right situation. And we have the perfect situation for any young QBs that have the superior skill sets.
As a side note, I read in the Athletic a comment that the S2 scores this year are at record highs for QBs with the top ranked QBs at around the 97th and 98th percentile. Last year they were much lower and we can see how they were drafted outside of Pickett. It almost looks like the NFL takes that test into account.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby MackStrongIsMyHero » Wed Apr 05, 2023 9:09 am

NorthHawk wrote:The smart play is to get a QB if they aren't all gone as that will set the team up for the next decade or more. DL don't usually play every snap on Defense and often rotate in and out to play maybe 75% of the game if they are good enough. There is a reason after all for QBs to be paid the most on a team (as a group).
Anderson would be a solid pick, but he won't be a real dominating OLB from what I can gather. He's got very good skills, but I have doubts he will be as effective as TJ Watt has been. But I could be wrong. So if we don't get a QB, dropping down might be the best thing. However, I would try to move up to get that one player who can make a real difference for 10 or more years at QB and while we have the ammunition to do so.


There are multiple smart plays. If one or more of the QBs fall to us, it could very well draw a really nice trade. If that trade comes with a 1st next year, then that's a good move. Set the team up further with this year's draft and make the move next year for the QB.

It's not all or nothing on any one option.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Wed Apr 05, 2023 10:29 am

NorthHawk wrote:The smart play is to get a QB if they aren't all gone as that will set the team up for the next decade or more. DL don't usually play every snap on Defense and often rotate in and out to play maybe 75% of the game if they are good enough. There is a reason after all for QBs to be paid the most on a team (as a group).

Anderson would be a solid pick, but he won't be a real dominating OLB from what I can gather. He's got very good skills, but I have doubts he will be as effective as TJ Watt has been. But I could be wrong. So if we don't get a QB, dropping down might be the best thing. However, I would try to move up to get that one player who can make a real difference for 10 or more years at QB and while we have the ammunition to do so.


MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:There are multiple smart plays. If one or more of the QBs fall to us, it could very well draw a really nice trade. If that trade comes with a 1st next year, then that's a good move. Set the team up further with this year's draft and make the move next year for the QB.

It's not all or nothing on any one option.


I agree with Mack. We have a lot of options at #5. And, I'm not convinced that all of the top quarterbacks (Stroud, Young, Richardson, and Levis) can survive given the right system. Personally, I have my doubts about both Young (lack of size) and Richardson (poor accuracy).

It's an interesting observation you made about the S2 testing. We'll see how it pans out after they get a little larger sample size.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby obiken » Wed Apr 05, 2023 4:07 pm

RiverDog wrote:I agree, but I don't want to draft a QB just for the sake of drafting one. If the right one is there at #5, then by all means, pull the trigger on him. But with 3 of the 4 teams picking ahead of us having a need for a QB, there's a good chance that 'our guy' will be gone by then. The next best option would be Anderson. I also wouldn't object to dropping down or trading up, either, if the price is right.


I think unless the prospect is a no brainer, you love him, he did well in the interview, the combine etc, drafting a QB in the top ten is a waste. Manning, Elway, Luck, etc. are fine, the rest its all about the fit, system, and the team around them. You and I have seen too many come and go. My least favorite was Rick Meir, but hell he hung around the league for 10 years. My no brainer flopper: Jeff George, all gun and no targeting! Of course there was Kelly Stouffer who was the worst QB Seattle ever had!
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby TriCitySam » Wed Apr 05, 2023 5:11 pm

With the moves they've made so far, clearly set up to be flexible. I still don't rule out Carter and have been a Hooker fan for a long time....a lot of folks have a WR at 20, that would surprise me a lot more than a trade down. But as we know, they can easily have us scratching our heads.

Regarding Rick Mirer, I was at training camp when he came in with a coach from down here, driving home he said "I'm not sure the lights are all on..."
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Wed Apr 05, 2023 6:53 pm

TriCitySam wrote:With the moves they've made so far, clearly set up to be flexible. I still don't rule out Carter and have been a Hooker fan for a long time....a lot of folks have a WR at 20, that would surprise me a lot more than a trade down. But as we know, they can easily have us scratching our heads.

Regarding Rick Mirer, I was at training camp when he came in witha coach from down here, driving home he said "I'm not sure the lights are all on..."


Better lock all the 2nd story plus windows in my office building if they burn a #20 overall on another wide receiver. It will be an open admission of guilt that Dee Eskridge is a bust. Hooker might be an option at #20 or #37.

And you're right. Pete and John tend to have their own evaluation system and defy all the pundits. Sometimes I think they bear it like a badge of honor, that their system is so unique and superior to all others that no one can predict who they'll draft. That is, up until last season, when they went to a more conventional script.

Your experience with Mirer dovetails with everything I've heard about him, that he was a dumb jock. Steve Raible once said that they had to 'dumb down' the offense in Mirer's first season in order to give him a soft landing, which helps explain his success as a rookie. But when they tried to expand it, he could never grasp the concepts they were trying to get him to learn. One of the biggest fleece jobs in our franchise's history is when we traded him to the Bears for a first rounder. A lot of people think of Brian Bosworth or Aaron Curry as our biggest bust, but when you consider that Mirer was the #2 overall, he has to take the cake, although it was mitigated by our offloading him to the Bears.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Thu Apr 06, 2023 6:18 am

Better lock all the 2nd story plus windows in my office building if they burn a #20 overall on another wide receiver. It will be an open admission of guilt that Dee Eskridge is a bust.


That's not necessarily true.
I've heard a number of GMs talk about drafting players not for this year (a nice surprise if they do really well), but for 2 years down the road. In 2 years Lockett will be 32 and on the last year of his current contract. A good WR who can fill that role will be necessary and if you find one now who can also fill WR3 for a couple of years and develop, the team is way ahead. Especially true if they are smart and get one of the top QBs in this draft.

I rule out Carter on the basis that on multiple occasions John and Pete in separate interviews stressed character as being one of the most important factors in last years draft and that it will be the same outlook this year. Too many character concerns outside of the legal issues to fit into their plans going by last years draft philosophy.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Thu Apr 06, 2023 6:31 am

Better lock all the 2nd story plus windows in my office building if they burn a #20 overall on another wide receiver. It will be an open admission of guilt that Dee Eskridge is a bust.


NorthHawk wrote:That's not necessarily true.
I've heard a number of GMs talk about drafting players not for this year (a nice surprise if they do really well), but for 2 years down the road. In 2 years Lockett will be 32 and on the last year of his current contract. A good WR who can fill that role will be necessary and if you find one now who can also fill WR3 for a couple of years and develop, the team is way ahead. Especially true if they are smart and get one of the top QBs in this draft.

I rule out Carter on the basis that on multiple occasions John and Pete in separate interviews stressed character as being one of the most important factors in last years draft and that it will be the same outlook this year. Too many character concerns outside of the legal issues to fit into their plans going by last years draft philosophy.


It's true that if they burn that high of a draft pick on a WR that they've written off Eskridge as he was supposed to be Lockett's eventual replacement.

I could go for a 2nd day pick to a WR, but not one of our first rounders. Defensive line, interior offensive line, and quarterback are the positions we should be looking at with those first rounders.

Agreed about Carter. I don't think he's on our board even at #20, but I don't think that he lasts that long anyway. IMO he doesn't get past the Eagles at #10.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Thu Apr 06, 2023 7:38 am

The Eagles probably have the most room to take a chance but they did lose Hargraves to SF so he might be on their list anyway. With their GM Roseman having won a SB and gone again later with a different team, I think the organization trusts him more than an owner who's FO hasn't done as well over the years. Carter is a boom or bust player and if he booms then they have a perennial All Pro, but if he busts then it's only one draft pick that was included in a previous trade and shouldn't affect the team a great deal down the road.

We have a lot of holes to fill, but if they see a WR (maybe Flowers or Downs) who can play the slot and be what they hoped they would get from Eskridge as well as replace Lockett later, it would be a good pick.
But, like you I think we have more urgent needs. It would seem that the OL/DL sweet spots might be from the late 1st round to early 3rd round, from my viewpoint. There are a couple of Guards and 3 or 4 Centers that might be good fits, and the NT type of player we need for the middle is not as plentiful as we would hope. So, to me it looks like the better options would be to go (in no particular order) DL/NT/DE, WR, and C with the 3 picks after #5. It might be something where John trades down and recovers another 3rd or late 2nd if that's how the draft falls. For instance if KC wants a WR or OT and is willing to move up from 31.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Thu Apr 06, 2023 8:33 am

NorthHawk wrote:The Eagles probably have the most room to take a chance but they did lose Hargraves to SF so he might be on their list anyway. With their GM Roseman having won a SB and gone again later with a different team, I think the organization trusts him more than an owner who's FO hasn't done as well over the years. Carter is a boom or bust player and if he booms then they have a perennial All Pro, but if he busts then it's only one draft pick that was included in a previous trade and shouldn't affect the team a great deal down the road.

We have a lot of holes to fill, but if they see a WR (maybe Flowers or Downs) who can play the slot and be what they hoped they would get from Eskridge as well as replace Lockett later, it would be a good pick.
But, like you I think we have more urgent needs. It would seem that the OL/DL sweet spots might be from the late 1st round to early 3rd round, from my viewpoint. There are a couple of Guards and 3 or 4 Centers that might be good fits, and the NT type of player we need for the middle is not as plentiful as we would hope. So, to me it looks like the better options would be to go (in no particular order) DL/NT/DE, WR, and C with the 3 picks after #5. It might be something where John trades down and recovers another 3rd or late 2nd if that's how the draft falls. For instance if KC wants a WR or OT and is willing to move up from 31.


I take it that you're assuming that we'll draft a QB early and haven't included the position in your list of options. Hooker might be an option for us at #20 or #37 if we don't take a QB at #5.

We're also going to have to look at our linebacker position. Since it looks like we aren't picking up Brooks' option and Bobby's obviously not a long term solution, we're going to have a pretty big gap to fill, not to mention that it wasn't our strongest position group to begin with. IMO that also ranks higher than WR.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Thu Apr 06, 2023 10:35 am

I was thinking of possible options from 20 onward regardless of who we select at 5.

ILB for sure, but we have a number of players for OLB right now. It’s not a real good year for ILB unfortunately. Maybe Bush will regain his game and be the player that reflects his original draft position. Then once Brooks is ready we could have a solid group.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Thu Apr 06, 2023 12:36 pm

NorthHawk wrote:I was thinking of possible options from 20 onward regardless of who we select at 5.

ILB for sure, but we have a number of players for OLB right now. It’s not a real good year for ILB unfortunately. Maybe Bush will regain his game and be the player that reflects his original draft position. Then once Brooks is ready we could have a solid group.


I don't think we can count on Brooks to contribute very much this season:

Given the timeline for players to return from ACL repair, and most current estimates for a return to the field for Brooks put him on the field very late in the 2023 season.

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2023/4/4/236 ... fa-6-games

Plus, this is his 4th year, and as we discussed earlier, we're probably not going to pick up his 5th year option.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby Hawktawk » Thu Apr 06, 2023 1:58 pm

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:To be fair, c_bob said our QB had one of the statistically best seasons in team history.


"Ahh, I stand corrected. My apologies to C-Bob. That's what I get for reading what it is I think I want to read.

Nevertheless, I'd argue that a successful season by a quarterback is directly related to the success of the team, and by that standard, it wasn't one of the best QB seasons in team history.

Regarding your mock, I've heard Skoronski's name mentioned in a lot of circles. But I don't think there's a snowball's chance in the lowlands that he goes in the top 10, but he might be an option for us at #20.[/quote]

Successful seasons are about stats and accomplishments personally and as a team. I recall a certain poster gleefully sharing respected Mike Sandos analysis of starting QB options with Geno alone in a special 4th category, worst starting option.#36 in a 32 team leagu :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: e. Vegas had us at 5.5 as I was gleefully reminded many times. We had rook tackles, garbage interior line , terrible defense, multiple games without any real option at running back second half of season.

Geno led the conference in TD passes. Russ might have once in 10 seasons. Geno became the second man in team history with 30 TDs and his 29 in 16 games was 3 more than any of Russes first 3 years. Geno led the league in completion %, I dont think Russ ever did. Ill stand corrected if so. Geno added 366 yards on a 5.4 ypc average, The team went 9-8 and led at the half in the WC. Geno had about a 139 QBR and 2 incompletions with a couple minutes left in the third till the refs stepped in and got us way behind the sticks and geno pressed knowing he had no help at all.I remeber the first 3 quarters. Like many games Geno couldnt do it all. We lost games scoring 23, 24 twice , 32, and 34.

Geno smith turned in the unquestionably best first year starter performance in the history of the franchise. Put him with the LOB and who knows. It was one of the very best seasons ever by a seahawks qb.

Geno Smith has earned some respect whether he gets in from those who didn't want him to begin with and dont want him now. Draft that flyboy savior. Odd are better than not that none of these 4 hotshots has a 30 TD year or 70% Completion in their career.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Thu Apr 06, 2023 5:00 pm

Given the timeline for players to return from ACL repair, and most current estimates for a return to the field for Brooks put him on the field very late in the 2023 season.

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2023/4/4/236 ... fa-6-games

Plus, this is his 4th year, and as we discussed earlier, we're probably not going to pick up his 5th year option.


If he doesn’t get back early enough to play 6 games, we could still get another year under his current contract. His injury was very late in the season so there’s a chance he won’t accrue a season.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Thu Apr 06, 2023 6:18 pm

Given the timeline for players to return from ACL repair, and most current estimates for a return to the field for Brooks put him on the field very late in the 2023 season.

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2023/4/4/236 ... fa-6-games

Plus, this is his 4th year, and as we discussed earlier, we're probably not going to pick up his 5th year option.


NorthHawk wrote:If he doesn’t get back early enough to play 6 games, we could still get another year under his current contract. His injury was very late in the season so there’s a chance he won’t accrue a season.


Now that you mention it, I guess I do remember reading that somewhere. It'll be something to keep an eye on.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby Stream Hawk » Thu Apr 06, 2023 8:31 pm

I think I actually agree with HT on this one! More than likely most of these quarterbacks will be busts. Geno is very solid and he’s only 32 years old. Give him some freaking talent.

Drafting Jalen is suddenly way more appealing after listening to a lot of recent analysts & locals from Georgia. Will Anderson might even slip, but still I feel we need interior first. Then go after center with second pick of the first. Best opportunity of PC/JS tenure - I don’t feel confident wasting on a QB.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Fri Apr 07, 2023 7:25 am

I think this is a parallel with Carter. It's about Robert Nkemdeche and it's Steve Keim who drafted him who is discussing it.

“In Arizona, I drafted Robert Nkemdiche with the 26th pick overall who we thought was a Top 10 talent and there were some concerns and questions about him coming out,” Keim said in an appearance on the Green Light with Chris Long podcast, via the Arizona Republic. At the end of the day really, the guy just, in my opinion, didn’t love football enough. He didn’t succeed or play at a high level because he was in love with the process of going through the draft, being the top pick, getting money. But when it was time to grind, that wasn’t his focus.”


Carter said his goal was to get in better shape before his last college season. His coach agreed it was necessary. He didn't do it. He didn't grind to achieve that goal.
He had his Pro Day and couldn't do the drills because he was out of shape and 9 pounds heavier.
It really gives one pause for thought if he's just in it for the money or if he loves the game enough to be a top 5 pick. How will he react if drafted at #5 and gets a $20M contract?
Then there's the talk from the team that he was consistently late for meetings and didn't put much effort into training or practice.
Just too many red flags and if John and Pete are serious about drafting players with great character then Carter probably isn't on their board early. Maybe if he's still there at 37 he could be a possibility, but that's a valuable spot to waste, too.

I'm pretty confident all 4 QBs will be pretty good if they have a chance to develop for a year. We have the perfect spot for any of them with a serviceable QB who may or may not perform like he did the first 10 games but the odds are he will perform like he did the last 8 games and be an average at best QB. If 2 of them are taken by Carolina and Houston, they will have the most pressure and the Colts will want their pick to start early, too but in Seattle there won't be that same urgency to have them play early.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby TriCitySam » Fri Apr 07, 2023 9:58 am

Despite what Pete and John say, I do not rule out Jalen Carter:

1: From a talent perspective, Carter continues to be in the top 5 in everyone's rankings, some of the best (that I respect) continue to rank him as the #1
talent in the draft and despite the recent issues has not slid down the board.
2: We are not in a position to evaluate Carter's character, what we know is what we read on the internet. It does not match the indepth dive that teams do.
There are multiple issues to consider and evaluate. No doubt, leaving the accident scene was a really bad decision, a panic move. But he's not the first
young person to made a bad decision and turn out highly successful or football player. Many of these young men come from backgrounds that do not put
them in a position to make good decisions.
3: Having "good character" doesn't mean are they 100% clean, but rather is it acceptable and can we manage it?
4: Pete has a history of drafting some with "character' issues. In the case of Frank Clark, JS said: “Our organization has an in-depth understanding
of Frank’s situation and background,” Schneider remarked. “We have done a ton of research on this young man. There hasn’t been one player in this draft
that we spent more time analyzing and scrutinizing than Frank.” And, I think that worked out OK.

Not saying they will take him, but if they're comfortable, I'm comfortable. And I do believe he's drafted inside the top 10.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Fri Apr 07, 2023 10:14 am

3: Having "good character" doesn't mean are they 100% clean, but rather is it acceptable and can we manage it?
4: Pete has a history of drafting some with "character' issues. In the case of Frank Clark, JS said: “Our organization has an in-depth understanding
of Frank’s situation and background,” Schneider remarked. “We have done a ton of research on this young man. There hasn’t been one player in this draft
that we spent more time analyzing and scrutinizing than Frank.” And, I think that worked out OK.


2/3. Character isn't all about behavior, it's also about the willingness to sacrifice and grind it out for the team. Carter hasn't shown the desire to sacrifice for his own benefit and get into proper shape before the biggest interview of his life. Do you really thing they are going to take that type of chance on a player to sacrifice for the team when he won't do it for himself? That's a big character flaw and not from the Internet.

4. His history isn't much more than other coaches in selecting players with character issues. It's a larger myth than just about anything he's done. What he does do is encourage players to be themselves.
Regarding Clark, there were no issues on the football field or at practice. All of his problems were legal and they were able to provide guidance to keep himself on track. All teams do that.

This is a rare chance to set the franchise on course for the next 10 to 15 years. A DT won't do that but a QB can.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby TriCitySam » Fri Apr 07, 2023 10:29 am

You won't hear any complaints from the Georgia contingent about the effort Carter put forth for Georgia on the field. We heard the same complaints about Orlando Brown who slid because he was not in good shape....now everyone who passed on him are kicking themselves. I have zero complaints if they are sold on a QB, or if they are sold on Carter. But the NFL folks look at character differently and assuming he's the "guy", unlikely for teams to draft a guy that's rated an 8 and pass on a 10.
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