Next up: the draft

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

If we don't we will be in the same position as the Titans are with a good team but needing a premier QB to take the next step and moving up to get one in future drafts will take a whole lot more draft capital than staying at 5 and selecting whichever QB falls to us.

There's available at #5 and then there's the right guy at #5. I'm wary of selecting whomever falls to #5 just because he's there. The Seahawks brain trust knows more about evaluating talent than I ever will, so I'll be good with them picking a QB if they think he's it, or passing on him for another or trading down. It's far from do or die for a QB at #5.

[RiverDog]

I'm not against trading up for who our brain trust feels is THE guy, but not for what ObS proposed. Those kinds of trades seldom work out for the team paying the high cost. Just take a look at the Niners: They trade a king's ransom to move up just 9 spots for Trey Lance, who had a horrible first year then suffered a season ending injury in is 2nd, Mr. Irrelevant steps in and outperforms him in just his first few games, and now, they're talking about trading Lance.

[jshawaii22]

I'm not against trading up for who our brain trust feels is THE guy, but not for what ObS proposed. Those kinds of trades seldom work out for the team paying the high cost. Just take a look at the Niners: They trade a king's ransom to move up just 9 spots for Trey Lance, who had a horrible first year then suffered a season ending injury in is 2nd, Mr. Irrelevant steps in and outperforms him in just his first few games, and now, they're talking about trading Lance.

Yes, that's one side of it... and then you look at the Chiefs, who paid a a whole lot to get a QB that no one really had rated in the top 10 (that I remember) and now he may be chasing Brady for the 'greatest of all time'. Not an easy game, but I agree that trading up out of the #5 is not worth it at this point as the word on the street is that none of these QB's are a guarantee, but the top 3-4 all have 'potential'.

Here's the trade:
the Chiefs made a deal with the Buffalo Bills for the No. 10 overall selection, trading the Nos. 27 and 91 picks, as well as their 2018 first-round pick, for the right to draft Mahomes.

[TriCitySam]

I suspect the excitement will settle down as we get closer to the draft. I thought Stroud and Richardson looked really good, and would think one of them will be available at #5....but given the QB risk, unless JS is sold 110%, I could see us trading down a couple spots and pocketing some nice picks. The workouts mean little in projecting their success in the long run. Richardson was a 54% passer at Florida last year.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

That Chiefs team was in much better shape than this Seahawks team, and they only had to move up to number 10 to get him.

[obiken]

I suspect the excitement will settle down as we get closer to the draft. I thought Stroud and Richardson looked really good, and would think one of them will be available at #5....but given the QB risk, unless JS is sold 110%, I could see us trading down a couple spots and pocketing some nice picks. The workouts mean little in projecting their success in the long run. Richardson was a 54% passer at Florida last year.

Richardson is a big fat no to me. 38% completion rate under pressure. Sorry good athlete, but Stroud is the only real prospect to me.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I don't like him at 5, and I'm reserving 20 for Minnesota C, Schmitz.

[c_hawkbob]

I think there are probably at least 5 prospects worthy of our # 5 pick so I'm not in favor of trading up.

[NorthHawk]

No need to trade up.
We need to come out of this draft with one of the 4 QBs if we want to have a chance of getting to the SB or at least go deep into the playoffs.

I’d be fine with Richardson. He could sit behind Geno and develop.
His stats don’t bother me much. NFL Live had a stat that had he completed 1 more pass per game his completion % would have gone from around 53% to 61% but it doesn’t include passes deliberately thrown away and he had receivers who outright dropped 16 passes. Those drops won’t happen in the NFL.

[Hawktawk]

No need to trade up.
We need to come out of this draft with one of the 4 QBs if we want to have a chance of getting to the SB or at least go deep into the playoffs.

I’d be fine with Richardson. He could sit behind Geno and develop.
His stats don’t bother me much. NFL Live had a stat that had he completed 1 more pass per game his completion % would have gone from around 53% to 61% but it doesn’t include passes deliberately thrown and he had receivers who outright dropped 16 passes. Those drops won’t happen in the NFL.

I’m not sure why we can’t go deep in the playoffs with a guy who led the league in completion % # the conference with 30 TDs, set a team record for yardage and completions. The odds are as great that none of these 4 hot rod guys ever have a year like that , take every snap for 18 games as the odds they will be good starters . Many superbowls including ours have been won with less impressive stats than those .

Don’t misunderstand , I like these qb and so does Pete . I have to laugh at the stats about Richardson drops . Sounds like Genos dropped picks complete one more pass ?
The guy looks better then he plays .

Seriously regarding Richardson I caught some of the play by play guy from Florida on Wyman and bob . He thinks Richardson has accuracy issues , not made up , legit , bad footwork . He also had trouble reading the field . This guy said that he thought going to a situation like Seattle with a vet like Geno that will HELP him develop would be ideal as he feels Richardson needs 2 years . Sounds fine by me . See how long the old man can hold him off .

[govandals]

I was looking at Richardson's individual game logs and noticed this:

1st 6 games (Utah, Kentucky, South Florida, Tennessee, Eastern Wash., Missouri) 5 tds/7 ints
last 6 games (Louisiana, Georgia, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Florida St.) 12 tds/2 ints

Appears he improved as the year went along.

Yeah, I know I'm cherry picking stats...

[Aseahawkfan]

Richardson is very raw. If we draft him, he has time to develop with Geno signed.

[RiverDog]

I was looking at Richardson's individual game logs and noticed this:

1st 6 games (Utah, Kentucky, South Florida, Tennessee, Eastern Wash., Missouri) 5 tds/7 ints
last 6 games (Louisiana, Georgia, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Florida St.) 12 tds/2 ints

Appears he improved as the year went along.

Yeah, I know I'm cherry picking stats...

I saw parts of the Florida-Kentucky game and wasn't impressed with either Levis or Richardson. But hopefully those stats show that he actually improved. Certainly, the schedule was much tougher in the 2nd half of the season.

I saw the other day how Richardson and Pete hit it off immediately during their meeting, I got the sense that he might be the one they want.

There's a report that the Bears are close to trading the #1 overall pick:

"A deal is close and in the final stages. @richeisen said the following today: “The #Bears are long down the road to trading the first overall pick. Teams have been identified, compensation is being hammered out," Ben Devine tweeted on Monday.

Now, Rich Eisen is entering the chat with the rumor he heard... which is this rumor mill might be coming to an end soon.

"The Bears are already long down the road of trading the first overall pick," Eisen said in his top rumors he heard at the combine segment. "Teams have been identified. Compensation is being hammered out."

[NorthHawk]

Neither of those teams had good players around their QBs. It's difficult to compare QBs when matching them against QBs playing behind quality OLs and good Offenses like the other two.
We might very well be saying the same things about Stroud and Young if they were on the teams Levis and Richardson were on.
But one thing in Richarson and Levis favor is they played against top college opponents for most of the season at a competitive disadvantage talent wise. They've had to endure and overcome which the other two largely haven't had to do on a regular basis.

[Hawktawk]

Neither of those teams had good players around their QBs. It's difficult to compare QBs when matching them against QBs playing behind quality OLs and good Offenses like the other two.
We might very well be saying the same things about Stroud and Young if they were on the teams Levis and Richardson were on.
But one thing in Richarson and Levis favor is they played against top college opponents for most of the season at a competitive disadvantage talent wise. They've had to endure and overcome which the other two largely haven't had to do on a regular basis.

I think Stroud and Young are as big a crapshoot in a way for the reason you mention. Very little competition, great protection and skill people. a great defense to get you field position and possessions. Like Iron MikeTyson said once, ""everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth". Ask Justin Fields, running for his life on a 3 win team, busted up, hurt with whispers he could actually be traded. Not likely but still wasn't he the super team point guard prototype 2 short years ago?

But I dont want to blame the lack of talent for Levis and Richardson's lack of stats. In the case of Richardson he has accuracy issues, especially in critical situations and he has trouble reading the field. its just a statistical fact.

And Florida might not be top shelf anymore but its not basement either . Not a good excuse. Levis is a little more believable excuse but still, sacked 38 times , hurt with something all year, 1.9-1 TD to pick ratio. Well he was good as a junior. Yeah but not great, still a lot of picks.

If your a top 5 franchise QB you should be able to elevate your roster significantly.

Seattle's line wound up #27 in pass pro. Geno was sacked 46 times and hit probably 100 more. Led conference in TDs, league in comp%, top 5 to top 10 in everything. With 5 or 6 games with no healthy RBs and as dreadful a defense as I've seen in a long time in Seattle.
Not to make it a Geno thread but just an example. Its big boy ball every play. If Im hearing qualifiers on a guys #s that Im taking top 5 about the tough competition Im really nervous.

[NorthHawk]

If you are worried about qualifiers then you would never draft a QB.
There are rarely Payton Mannings and Andrew Lucks in the NFL draft. Would you want Mahomes on your team? How about Allen? Both of those players were said to have accuracy issues and Mahomes dropped quite a bit because of it.
The bottom line is we have a rare chance to get a QB that can actually lead us deep into the playoffs. A journeyman QB who had about 10 good games before falling back to earth isn't the answer this year or the next 3. He just isn't unless you
want a Kirk Cousins or Ryan Tannehill type of success where they tease you with potential but never really deliver.
Whoever we draft will have the chance to sit for a year and learn what the NFL is all about before taking over. Joe Burrow sat for 6 games behind Dalton before starting and it was the best thing for him. Mahomes had Alex Smith to learn from and
he turned out fine. The same thing can happen for any of the top 4 QBs in this draft and it's worth any risk because the goal is to win a Super Bowl not just compete and make the playoffs.

Specifically Richardson and Levis, they were seriously outmanned by their SEC opponents this year. It has to be a factor in evaluating them, there's just no going around it, and they both played pretty well against the better teams defenses considering the mismatch of talent.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

If you are worried about qualifiers then you would never draft a QB.

Or, you use qualifiers to slot where you intend to draft QBs. If the qualifiers still put one of the QBs at #5 for the Seahawks, then so be it. Not going to be upset if they decide otherwise.

There are rarely Payton Mannings and Andrew Lucks in the NFL draft. Would you want Mahomes on your team? How about Allen? Both of those players were said to have accuracy issues and Mahomes dropped quite a bit because of it.

Sure, but that just means they were evaluated by the team that selected them to be worth that spot. This ties in with my first response.

The bottom line is we have a rare chance to get a QB that can actually lead us deep into the playoffs. A journeyman QB who had about 10 good games before falling back to earth isn't the answer this year or the next 3. He just isn't unless you
want a Kirk Cousins or Ryan Tannehill type of success where they tease you with potential but never really deliver.
Whoever we draft will have the chance to sit for a year and learn what the NFL is all about before taking over. Joe Burrow sat for 6 games behind Dalton before starting and it was the best thing for him. Mahomes had Alex Smith to learn from and
he turned out fine. The same thing can happen for any of the top 4 QBs in this draft and it's worth any risk because the goal is to win a Super Bowl not just compete and make the playoffs.

This idea comes across to me that because it's a high draft pick, you have to take a QB, or not taking a QB is a mistake. They are the top 4 qbs in the draft but are they all worth a top 5 overall pick? I say "no", but I'm sure opinions vary. If they don't see enough in whomever lasts to #5 overall to justify the pick, then they don't take him. It's not do-or-die for QB at #5 overall.

Specifically Richardson and Levis, they were seriously outmanned by their SEC opponents this year. It has to be a factor in evaluating them, there's just no going around it, and they both played pretty well against the better teams defenses considering the mismatch of talent.

I've already covered this ground somewhere in some topic (maybe this one), but I don't agree completely with this. They played a good mix of inferior, peer, and superior opponents, and they didn't particularly crush it against the inferior and peer opponents. It's why I don't see either as a top 5 pick.

[Old but Slow]

I guess the obvious question is, if not one of the quarterbacks, then who? The only defensive players that could be even considered there would be Will Anderson, who had a shaky Combine compared to what was expected of him, Tyree Smith, who some rate high but hasn't tested yet, and Christian Gonzalez, who plays a position we have never taken high. There is a lot of talent defensively in the range of late first through the 3d. Or more. Offensively, possible top 5 is limited to Bijan Robinson.

All of the quarterbacks have flaws. That is why the need to sit a year or so. And that is why we pay coaches. Improve Richardsons footwork and his accuracy will improve.

And for what it is worth (not much), if Richardson can not be the QB they want, he could be a good WR or TE. And I could be a free safety. Just as likely.

[NorthHawk]

From my perspective if we don’t draft a top QB this draft then when? If we wait for a couple of years, we will be desperate for a younger QB and it would take multiple firsts and maybe seconds to move up to the necessary spot. With this QB class looking like the best one for a number of years, now is the time to pull the trigger. Unless, of course all 4 QBs are gone by 5.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I guess the obvious question is, if not one of the quarterbacks, then who?

You don't have to stay put at #5. Trading down is an option. As for who you grab then, depends on how far back you go, but you may go ahead and get Bijan or Myles Murphy or Jordan Battle. Then you're still wide open to get IOL and DL with 3 picks. Schmitz, O'Torrence or Avila, Mazi Smith or Siaki Ika.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

From my perspective if we don’t draft a top QB this draft then when? If we wait for a couple of years, we will be desperate for a younger QB and it would take multiple firsts and maybe seconds to move up to the necessary spot. With this QB class looking like the best one for a number of years, now is the time to pull the trigger. Unless, of course all 4 QBs are gone by 5.

This thought process makes sense to me if the top 4 QBs are actually top 4 QBs. Or, at least, the Seahawks front office deems at least one of them a top four QB and one falls to them. You don't want to get desperate with the #5 overall pick either. BPA or trade down.

[Aseahawkfan]

I think trading up for a high pick is not something many teams like to do unless they really fall in love with a player. And trading down isn't the greatest either considering you get a top five pick once in a couple of decades as a GM of a good team. So not sure what incentive there is to trade unless the top five player you want isn't there and some other team is really hot on a player and willing to give up a ransom for it.

Seattle has had a top five pick like three times in their history and never under Pete Carroll and John Schneider. I can't see them passing up a chance to draft a top 5 player for a trade down unless they really see no one worthy of the pick.

[RiverDog]

I think trading up for a high pick is not something many teams like to do unless they really fall in love with a player. And trading down isn't the greatest either considering you get a top five pick once in a couple of decades as a GM of a good team. So not sure what incentive there is to trade unless the top five player you want isn't there and some other team is really hot on a player and willing to give up a ransom for it.

Seattle has had a top five pick like three times in their history and never under Pete Carroll and John Schneider. I can't see them passing up a chance to draft a top 5 player for a trade down unless they really see no one worthy of the pick.

I wouldn't hold my breath about trading down out of the #5 spot. John Schneider is notorious for trading down, including in the first round. However, he's done so on a lot of occasions so he could accumulate more selections as we've generally spent them on trades for players. This year, we have plenty of picks, so there's less incentive for us to trade down.

Having said that, I can see us trading down for future picks in 2024 and 2025. It would make that Russell Wilson trade the gift that keeps on giving.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I think trading up for a high pick is not something many teams like to do unless they really fall in love with a player. And trading down isn't the greatest either considering you get a top five pick once in a couple of decades as a GM of a good team. So not sure what incentive there is to trade unless the top five player you want isn't there and some other team is really hot on a player and willing to give up a ransom for it.

Seattle has had a top five pick like three times in their history and never under Pete Carroll and John Schneider. I can't see them passing up a chance to draft a top 5 player for a trade down unless they really see no one worthy of the pick.

You just answered your own question. Either the guy is there at #5 or he isn't. If he isn't, then trade down if you can.

[obiken]

Richardson is very raw. If we draft him, he has time to develop with Geno signed.

Thats a great point. Moreover, Geno's contract is set up to the point that IF the QB develops they could move off of him in a hurry.

[Hawktawk]

Richardson is very raw. If we draft him, he has time to develop with Geno signed.

That's a great point. Moreover, Geno's contract is set up to the point that IF the QB develops they could move off of him in a hurry.

Seems the MOST EXCITING thing about the deal with Geno to many is how quick we can get out of it. Its understandable but the doubt Geno wing of the fan base is in full throat.

What if Geno plays good? Great? what if we give him some defense?

There's a better chance that Geno is good to great next year then there is that Richardson will ever be great or any of the other guys in the draft.Richardson is a pipe dream. Might not always be but hes done nothing yet in his career except build an incredible body with help from God. If I hear Mahomes again Ill cry. Hes a hall of famer if he quits today. But who else? Burrow is my #2, an unquestioned #1 overall talent when drafted and he still had a rocky rookie year ended by injury before their improved defense and skill people allowed him to take the next step.

Josh Allen you say? Love the guy. Hasn't won a divisional on a pretty salty good roster with a really good young coach. Led the league in turnovers with 18. Left the field in a shouting match with Diggs who was doing most of the shouting after another divisional loss by the "super bowl contender" Bills.

Allen is fun to watch QB that loses in the divisional. Kinda like Kirk Cousins. Not saying Allen cant as I dont believe that but 6 years in....
Herbert? 1 playoff loss. Geno smoked him like a joint, our defense crushed him. Even Lamar Jackson has question marks due to the fact his style of play is getting him hurt now, Allen also to a lesser extent .

I believe in Geno. We can win with Geno. Ill take 30 TD passes and over 4 K team record yards and compl% that led the league and I wont whine or complain. Ill be thankful for the big time hometown discount we got, the true real person, great teammate and pro organization goals . The workout warrior who was in the gym lifting the day after getting the hell knocked out of him in a playoff game. Yeah he had a tough second half in some games like everyone did except Purdy.
Not trying to be a downer as Im intrigued by our situation and these draft options as much as anyone but now is now.

Do not sleep on Geno.

[NorthHawk]

He's not the long term answer. He's just too old to be that player. And many of us don't think he can elevate his game above what we saw last year - and that's not enough to win a SB in today's NFL.

[Hawktawk]

He's not the long term answer. He's just too old to be that player. And many of us don't think he can elevate his game above what we saw last year - and that's not enough to win a SB in today's NFL.

Stafford threw 17 picks, 4 for pick 6es in a lombardi season. Trent Dilfers stats were ludicrous the year they won. Roethlisberger had a QBR of 22 in XL.

How is it a guy with a conference leading 30 TD, league leading 69.8 comp %, 366 rush yards 5.4 average and a TD , #6 QBR in the league , #1 completion % on throws over 15 air yards cant win a superbowl? In 16 games he threw for 3 more TDs than Russels first year starting here, also his super bowl winning year. But they had a defense, like Seattle .
Geno Smith is plenty capable of leading a team to and winning it all if the right pieces are around him. We lost last year scoring 23, 24 twice , 32, and 34 points in one of Genos "bad" games. Even with a mediocre D we had a shot at the division.

Geno has 21 starts and a quarter with Seattle now in which he has thrown for 5100 or so yards, 37 TDs, 2 rush TDs and around 500 yards rushing.
12 picks, 3 lost fumbles(all huge in losses). He has been sacked 59 times.
A lot more quarterbacks with worse numbers than that have won super bowls.
I get old guy part. Most guys fall off not much after his age but hes low mileage. For him to be starting here in 3 years either hes been phenomenal or whoever got drafted was terrible. Again, this is now. I think Geno plans to do what he did last year which was hit every incentive and my guess 9-8 first round flameout won't cut it with the incentives. Im curious what they might be.
You doubt him. I'm not sure what to expect beyond maximum effort but I won't bet against him now.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I think he can win, but dependent on some things to line up. He needs a defense that can allow the team to win more often without having to score 20+ points and keep him from play from behind. Better oline to aid in a consistently effective run game and improved pass protection. I don't think we see Geno under center for the third year of his deal, so this would have to come together by the second season. Is it possible? Yes, but it's contingent on nailing this draft like last year. Am I going to hold my breath? No.

I think he's the best chance to win something now. Quarterbacks that win you a SB inside their first 3 years are unicorns. As good as Russ was, he had arguably the filthiest defense in the league and a great running game to lean on. I am also on board with drafting someone to be ready to take over the reins in the next 2-3 years. I have to believe JS and PC are on board with that too. All depends on who they have pegged for it.

[NorthHawk]

I think he can win, but dependent on some things to line up. He needs a defense that can allow the team to win more often without having to score 20+ points and keep him from play from behind. Better oline to aid in a consistently effective run game and improved pass protection. I don't think we see Geno under center for the third year of his deal, so this would have to come together by the second season. Is it possible? Yes, but it's contingent on nailing this draft like last year. Am I going to hold my breath? No.

I think he's the best chance to win something now. Quarterbacks that win you a SB inside their first 3 years are unicorns. As good as Russ was, he had arguably the filthiest defense in the league and a great running game to lean on. I am also on board with drafting someone to be ready to take over the reins in the next 2-3 years. I have to believe JS and PC are on board with that too. All depends on who they have pegged for it.

That must have been their plan - to draft a QB in one of the 2 drafts and have him ready in a couple of years. They clearly didn't believe in Geno as if they did they would have locked him up for 5 years at less than $10M/year. But Geno had a good year and now gives the team some flexibility and time for a QB to develop before being thrown into the fire.

[RiverDog]

I think he can win, but dependent on some things to line up. He needs a defense that can allow the team to win more often without having to score 20+ points and keep him from play from behind. Better oline to aid in a consistently effective run game and improved pass protection. I don't think we see Geno under center for the third year of his deal, so this would have to come together by the second season. Is it possible? Yes, but it's contingent on nailing this draft like last year. Am I going to hold my breath? No.

I think he's the best chance to win something now. Quarterbacks that win you a SB inside their first 3 years are unicorns. As good as Russ was, he had arguably the filthiest defense in the league and a great running game to lean on. I am also on board with drafting someone to be ready to take over the reins in the next 2-3 years. I have to believe JS and PC are on board with that too. All depends on who they have pegged for it.

That must have been their plan - to draft a QB in one of the 2 drafts and have him ready in a couple of years. They clearly didn't believe in Geno as if they did they would have locked him up for 5 years at less than $10M/year. But Geno had a good year and now gives the team some flexibility and time for a QB to develop before being thrown into the fire.

I'm on this boat, too. If you assume that we're drafting a quarterback high in this year's draft, a contract like this with a player like Geno makes perfect sense. It also makes sense if we don't have a QB in mind that we think is our QBOTF as it gives us the flexibility of carrying Geno out to term in the hope of finding that guy in the next draft.

[jshawaii22]

I heard another rumor that we are looking at Hendon Hooker, the 'injured' QB from Tennessee. Because most teams need a QB to start from day #1, this would give us a chance to pick him up later in the draft (round #2?) -- I only saw him in a couple of games and highlights, but he looked really good from what I could see. Of course it doesn't matter, but last year early preseason mock drafts had him ahead of Will Levis and Richardson, going in as the 3rd QB off the board.

[TriCitySam]

I've been talking about Hooker for 3 or 4 months, as he looked really good in the games I watched. Not saying I'm any kind of expert in evaluating, but it's always been my belief that completion % was maybe the most important stat. You don't have to have foot speed (see Dan Fouts) or a cannon (see Joe Montana), but you need to be able to read/release quickly and hit the target.

I've mentioned Richardson's 54% completion percentage - and part of that number is simply being inaccurate. It's much easier to complete in the NCAA, in part because the wider hash marks. There were 104 QB's with a better completion % than Richardson, and one of those was Hendon Hooker (#7) at nearly 70%. Granted there are other things that affect it, and if they're completely sold on a guy, then you take a swing at the top.

p.s. Josh Allen wasn't known for a high completion % in college, so....

[obiken]

He's not the long term answer. He's just too old to be that player. And many of us don't think he can elevate his game above what we saw last year - and that's not enough to win a SB in today's NFL.

Thats what I think too, to say he is better than Herbert because he "smoked" him in one game that's a joke. Can Geno match or get close too what we saw last year NH, I dont know, but the answer will define our season. IF we had a top 5 pick next year we would be gold!

[Aseahawkfan]

I've been talking about Hooker for 3 or 4 months, as he looked really good in the games I watched. Not saying I'm any kind of expert in evaluating, but it's always been my belief that completion % was maybe the most important stat. You don't have to have foot speed (see Dan Fouts) or a cannon (see Joe Montana), but you need to be able to read/release quickly and hit the target.

I've mentioned Richardson's 54% completion percentage - and part of that number is simply being inaccurate. It's much easier to complete in the NCAA, in part because the wider hash marks. There were 104 QB's with a better completion % than Richardson, and one of those was Hendon Hooker (#7) at nearly 70%. Granted there are other things that affect it, and if they're completely sold on a guy, then you take a swing at the top.

p.s. Josh Allen wasn't known for a high completion % in college, so....

Hooker has Pete type of QB stats too. Low turnovers, careful with the ball.

[RiverDog]

I've been talking about Hooker for 3 or 4 months, as he looked really good in the games I watched. Not saying I'm any kind of expert in evaluating, but it's always been my belief that completion % was maybe the most important stat. You don't have to have foot speed (see Dan Fouts) or a cannon (see Joe Montana), but you need to be able to read/release quickly and hit the target.

I've mentioned Richardson's 54% completion percentage - and part of that number is simply being inaccurate. It's much easier to complete in the NCAA, in part because the wider hash marks. There were 104 QB's with a better completion % than Richardson, and one of those was Hendon Hooker (#7) at nearly 70%. Granted there are other things that affect it, and if they're completely sold on a guy, then you take a swing at the top.

p.s. Josh Allen wasn't known for a high completion % in college, so....

Your mentioning of Richardson's completion percentage reminded me of a formula that attempted to predict a quarterback's success and failure called the 26-27-60 rule. From an article dated July of 2010:

If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level.

Since 1998, these are some of the NFL quarterbacks who aced all three parts of the Rule of 26-27-60: Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Stafford.

Meanwhile, among the once highly-touted prospects who failed at least one part of the formula: Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, Michael Vick, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Daunte Culpepper, David Carr, Vince Young and JaMarcus Russell.

https://www.si.com/more-sports/2010/07/08/qb-rule

[mykc14]

Your mentioning of Richardson's completion percentage reminded me of a formula that attempted to predict a quarterback's success and failure called the 26-27-60 rule. From an article dated July of 2010:

If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level.

Since 1998, these are some of the NFL quarterbacks who aced all three parts of the Rule of 26-27-60: Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Stafford.

Meanwhile, among the once highly-touted prospects who failed at least one part of the formula: Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, Michael Vick, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Daunte Culpepper, David Carr, Vince Young and JaMarcus Russell.

https://www.si.com/more-sports/2010/07/08/qb-rule

That is interesting, I wonder if that predictor of success still holds true if you include the QB's drafted from 2010 to last year?

[RiverDog]

Your mentioning of Richardson's completion percentage reminded me of a formula that attempted to predict a quarterback's success and failure called the 26-27-60 rule. From an article dated July of 2010:

If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level.

Since 1998, these are some of the NFL quarterbacks who aced all three parts of the Rule of 26-27-60: Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Stafford.

Meanwhile, among the once highly-touted prospects who failed at least one part of the formula: Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, Michael Vick, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Daunte Culpepper, David Carr, Vince Young and JaMarcus Russell.

https://www.si.com/more-sports/2010/07/08/qb-rule

That is interesting, I wonder if that predictor of success still holds true if you include the QB's drafted from 2010 to last year?

They quit publicizing the Wonderlic results years ago, I suppose for legal concerns, as the test was criticized for being racially and socioeconomically biased and could be seen as a violation of their privacy, and since it was almost impossible to keep the scores from leaking out, they've done away with it altogether.

But here's a list of some notable players and their Wonderlic scores from back in 2019:

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/new ... zdtzxd4v5u

[obiken]

But here's a list of some notable players and their Wonderlic scores from back in 2019:

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/new ... zdtzxd4v5u

They have done away with it all together because more educated people get a higher score, so there was screams of racism. The problem I had with it is it didnt do what it was supposed to do, predict Football awareness. Pat Haden was a Rhodes scholar, and do you remember the kind of NFL QB he was? B A D!

[RiverDog]

They have done away with it all together because more educated people get a higher score, so there was screams of racism. The problem I had with it is it didnt do what it was supposed to do, predict Football awareness. Pat Haden was a Rhodes scholar, and do you remember the kind of NFL QB he was? B A D!

Have you ever taken it? There are a few questions that require some advanced math that I just skipped over (it's a timed test), but a lot of it is just plain reasoning:

"John knows Sally and Sally knows Mary. Does John know Mary?

1. Yes
2. No
3. Not enough information


Or, how about this one:

Are the following two words similar, contradictory, or not related?

Beat Pound

Not all are that simple, but there's enough of them to where only a true moron would score less than 10 (I think Vince Young scored a 6). The key is that it's a timed test, so you have to skip over the harder questions that require some math, knock out the gimmes like the ones above, then return to the tougher ones later if you have time. Even some of the math questions you don't have to actually perform the operation as it's multiple choice and you can eliminate all the wrong answers just by knowing what range the answer will be in. The other thing is that they don't deduct points for a wrong answer, so it's better to guess than leave a question unanswered. Knowing those few things can dramatically improve one's score. There's lots of sample tests all over the internet, and practicing helps.

While I agree that more educated people tend to do better in it, more educated people are generally smarter in the first place. It may be socioeconomically biased, or at least it was in the past, but IMO it has little to do with racism unless the person was discriminated against previously and unable to gain an education due to racism, which isn't the case with the vast majority of NFL players as nearly all of them attended a 4 year liberal arts college.

Like any test, it's not going to be completely accurate. Some people just plain don't test well no matter how easy the questions are. But it must have had some value or else they wouldn't have used it for some 50 years before they decided to do away with it.