Battle in Seattle for QB1

[RiverDog]

PFF has Geno ranked as their #2 free agent and signing a 4 year, $150 M contract:

Contract Projection: Four years, $150 million ($37.5M per year); $112.5 million total guaranteed

Imagine before the season began, mired in a quarterback battle with Drew Lock in Seattle, that we’d have Geno Smith as a top free-agent target for the 2023 offseason. It’s not often you hear about the age-32, Year 10 breakout, but that’s exactly what we’re witnessing this season from Smith.

Nothing about what he’s doing is fluky or excessively bolstered by things like play action, an outlier performance in unstable metrics like passing grade against pressure, or any other method you use to try to poke holes in his production this season. Smith’s 79.8 overall grade and 87.6 grade from a clean pocket this season ranked ninth and 12th, respectively. His 14 passing touchdowns on throws of 20-plus yards were two more than the next-best quarterback, and his 5.6% big-time throw rate ranked fifth.

There’s no current indication we should expect some massive regression, either. Smith’s 85.8 passing grade against middle-of-field-open coverage further illustrates that he didn't benefit in an outsized fashion from loaded box counts that freed up his receivers in an effort to sell out against the run. We can go on and on, but the fact of the matter is that Smith played like a legitimate top quarterback in the NFL in 2022.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-free- ... ree-agency

[Hawktawk]

PFF has Geno ranked as their #2 free agent and signing a 4 year, $150 M contract:

Contract Projection: Four years, $150 million ($37.5M per year); $112.5 million total guaranteed

Imagine before the season began, mired in a quarterback battle with Drew Lock in Seattle, that we’d have Geno Smith as a top free-agent target for the 2023 offseason. It’s not often you hear about the age-32, Year 10 breakout, but that’s exactly what we’re witnessing this season from Smith.

Nothing about what he’s doing is fluky or excessively bolstered by things like play action, an outlier performance in unstable metrics like passing grade against pressure, or any other method you use to try to poke holes in his production this season. Smith’s 79.8 overall grade and 87.6 grade from a clean pocket this season ranked ninth and 12th, respectively. His 14 passing touchdowns on throws of 20-plus yards were two more than the next-best quarterback, and his 5.6% big-time throw rate ranked fifth.

There’s no current indication we should expect some massive regression, either. Smith’s 85.8 passing grade against middle-of-field-open coverage further illustrates that he didn't benefit in an outsized fashion from loaded box counts that freed up his receivers in an effort to sell out against the run. We can go on and on, but the fact of the matter is that Smith played like a legitimate top quarterback in the NFL in 2022.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-free- ... ree-agency

Yeah I saw this. ESPN has him as their #5 overall FA prospect as well. The dreamers who think nobodys gonna want him exist only on this forum. To be fair these are some of the same publications that had him dead last pre season, Seattle dead last as well. It takes 2 to tango and this assumes there are going to be multiple suitors I imagine. But again, what makes anyone think Carr is going to come cheap? he had a 40 million deal already. And hes a downgrade based on his historical production anyway.
If Geno walks start Lock then get more aggressive about finding another guy in the draft. There is no potential FA Id rather have than these 2 right here. And anyone thinking that we draft a rook and repeat our success with Russ might want to explain where our defense is coming from. Without it Russ doesn't win Jack. For all the talk about Genos bad second half (bad 5 games actually) might want to check the box score on some of Russell's wins in 2013. We were carried by our defense. When it faded so did we.

[NorthHawk]

We still have to accumulate building blocks for the future - that means without Geno because by the time any draft picks develop to the point of being good enough to reach their potential, Geno will be 36 or 37.
Our window is going to be 3 to 4 years from now, not this or next year. Signing Geno to a massive contract because he's played well for 8 or 9 games in the last 7 years is something other GMs will not want to do.
They know there's no future with Geno long term and many will look at our team and wonder if he is simply a system fit or a flash in the pan. Maybe they want a Cousins or Wentz type of QB, but it's doubtful
that they would mortgage their future and waste so much Cap space on such a gamble or result. After all, teams that would look at him will have many other needs as well.
But all it takes is one, of course - and that one shouldn't be us.

[govandals]

PFF has Geno ranked as their #2 free agent and signing a 4 year, $150 M contract:

Contract Projection: Four years, $150 million ($37.5M per year); $112.5 million total guaranteed

No way Geno gets $112.5 million guaranteed. Not from Seattle, not from any other team.

[mykc14]

Draft a young QB and use cap space on DL/LB!!

[RiverDog]

PFF has Geno ranked as their #2 free agent and signing a 4 year, $150 M contract:

Contract Projection: Four years, $150 million ($37.5M per year); $112.5 million total guaranteed

No way Geno gets $112.5 million guaranteed. Not from Seattle, not from any other team.

I tend to agree. I'm not sure how PFF is coming up with their projections, but it would seem that it's based only on player performance and doesn't factor in the needs of potential teams.

If the price for Geno comes in as high as what this article is projecting, I hope that PC/JS have the common sense to say no and move on. As others have said, we're not a player or two away from competing for a super bowl, so it doesn't make sense to spend that much money on 30 something year old quarterback that's going to hamstring us for 4 years.

[c_hawkbob]

The cap just had an all time high increase and Geno is a low mileage Pro Bowl FA QB, I'm not at all surprised at PFF's projection. Unless he's willing to do a Brady and give us a hometown discount I don't see him staying here. That some tough incentive to say no to.

[Aseahawkfan]

That's a pretty high cost for a Kirk Cousins. QBs are costing insane money now.

[Hawktawk]

Saw reports Geno and Seattle have officially entered contract negotiations . The story was accompanied by some very positive comments by Geno about how much he loves it in Seattle and how positive he feels that it will get done.

It’s just a remarkable phenomenon . The marginalizing of what the man did with rookie tackes and warmed over dog meat interior line , no defense and many games with no run game .

Throw away a guy who set team records in completions and yardage , 3rd man in 46 years to throw 30 TDs .

Yeah I know 17 games . But Russ didn’t crack his 29 TDs in a 16 game season till his 4th year . The year of our second super bowl he threw 20 TD passes , 4 picks in the NFC championship and the killer in that Super Bowl . But I keep hearing Geno is some place holder we can’t win with .

Well he had a bad second half . Yeah 3 and 5 but one of the losses he put up 34 points and the defense couldn’t hold up . Same deal with the saints early in the year . 32 points . He directed a last second comeback in the second half of the year .

A few too many turnovers but 5 less than Josh Allen . And Geno is a gunslinger who challenges defenders in tight windows . A year ago Stafford threw 17 picks , 4 pick 6 es and hoisted a Lombardi .

And Geno scrambles too with 366 yards . And he took every snap . Ask shanahan about that . He put 17 on the 9ers in a quarter . And another long drive before the turnover . Who knows maybe he is Kirk Cousins. I think he’s Geno Smith writing his own story .

I know you can win it all if there’s a team around him and we’re a few pieces away . Geno is a workout warrior who should be able to play another 3 or 4 years easily . Can we win with Lock ? Not knowable . One of these rookies ? Not likely at least not right away . Some free agent like Carr ? He’s on the trade block as we speak , not a free agent yet . And why would you ?

Careful Seattle . Don’t know what you have till it’s gone .

[obiken]

PFF has Geno ranked as their #2 free agent and signing a 4 year, $150 M contract:
Contract Projection: Four years, $150 million ($37.5M per year); $112.5 million total guaranteed
No way Geno gets $112.5 million guaranteed. Not from Seattle, not from any other team.

NO way in hell we should pay Smith that kind of money!!!

[NorthHawk]

Saw reports Geno and Seattle have officially entered contract negotiations . The story was accompanied by some very positive comments by Geno about how much he loves it in Seattle and how positive he feels that it will get done.

It’s just a remarkable phenomenon . The marginalizing of what the man did with rookie tackes and warmed over dog meat interior line , no defense and many games with no run game .

Throw away a guy who set team records in completions and yardage , 3rd man in 46 years to throw 30 TDs .

Yeah I know 17 games . But Russ didn’t crack his 29 TDs in a 16 game season till his 4th year . The year of our second super bowl he threw 20 TD passes , 4 picks in the NFC championship and the killer in that Super Bowl . But I keep hearing Geno is some place holder we can’t win with .

Well he had a bad second half . Yeah 3 and 5 but one of the losses he put up 34 points and the defense couldn’t hold up . Same deal with the saints early in the year . 32 points . He directed a last second comeback in the second half of the year .

A few too many turnovers but 5 less than Josh Allen . And Geno is a gunslinger who challenges defenders in tight windows . A year ago Stafford threw 17 picks , 4 pick 6 es and hoisted a Lombardi .

And Geno scrambles too with 366 yards . And he took every snap . Ask shanahan about that . He put 17 on the 9ers in a quarter . And another long drive before the turnover . Who knows maybe he is Kirk Cousins. I think he’s Geno Smith writing his own story .

I know you can win it all if there’s a team around him and we’re a few pieces away . Geno is a workout warrior who should be able to play another 3 or 4 years easily . Can we win with Lock ? Not knowable . One of these rookies ? Not likely at least not right away . Some free agent like Carr ? He’s on the trade block as we speak , not a free agent yet . And why would you ?

Careful Seattle . Don’t know what you have till it’s gone .

Perhaps, but will he continue his trend toward the norm as he did near the end of the season? Is it worth that gamble?
As well, he has nothing to do with how the OL performed. That credit goes to the OL coaches who got them ready every week.
PFF had a stat with expected turnovers (Ints and fumbles). If he had the average of the league turnovers he would have thrown about 25 INTs. That's how lucky he was this past year.
So if he does end up with his normal average turnover rate, we're looking at an old turnover machine with very little upside.
To me, that gamble isn't worth a lot of money in a long term contract.
So get him enough money so he's happy, but nothing that will surely hamstring us Cap wise down the road.
The guaranteed $ is the key. So if you flash a $30M check at him (the guarantee with a contract total of $50M) and say it's yours, would he say no, I'm gambling that I can make $100M?
If he's smart, he's take the money and run, but some people aren't very bright.
On the other side of the coin, is our FO stupid enough to offer him $100M? Yeah, history shows they probably are.

[c_hawkbob]

"it's looking very good" that Geno will sign a new deal that will keep him leading the Seahawks through the 2023 season and beyond.
"Yeah, we've had talks, and we are in the process of getting all that settled right now," Smith said Friday

From Greg Bell

[Hawktawk]

[quote="NorthHawk"

PFF had a stat with expected turnovers (Ints and fumbles). If he had the average of the league turnovers he would have thrown about 25 INTs. That's how lucky he was this past year.
So if he does end up with his normal average turnover rate, we're looking at an old turnover machine with very little upside.
To me, that gamble isn't worth a lot of money in a long term contract.
So get him enough money so he's happy, but nothing that will surely hamstring us Cap wise down the road.
The guaranteed $ is the key. So if you flash a $30M check at him (the guarantee with a contract total of $50M) and say it's yours, would he say no, I'm gambling that I can make $100M?
If he's smart, he's take the money and run, but some people aren't very bright.
On the other side of the coin, is our FO stupid enough to offer him $100M? Yeah, history shows they probably are.[/quote]

I’ve heard you quote this ridiculous anticipated turnover stat too many times . Post a link . Everyone has picks dropped . Purdy had 3 in 2 games vs Seattle alone , one right in Diggs chest . Genos 11 picks were tied for 22nt . His 13 turnovers were 5 less then league leaders Josh Allen and Matt Ryan .

I know in his only playoff start he was the only thing keeping us in the game and he had 2 incompletions and a qbr of 130 before the fumble after the man downfield call. I trust him . Looks like maybe Pete and John do as well .

What do you mean by “ some people aren’t too smart “. Pete and John ? Do you think Geno should take 30 guaranteed or he’s not smart ?
I watched the guy play and heard him talk . He’s not stupid .

[NorthHawk]

The site is paywalled but there are others who had these stats online.
The fact is he had more INTs that were dropped than all QBs except Josh Allen. And it was by a large margin from the norm.
The last half his luck started to turn towards normalcy and we saw the results.
Take from it what you will, but planning for the long term with Geno and eliminating a large piece of Cap space for an improbable short term gain doesn't help this team build toward the future.
Our window isn't this year, next year, but maybe it will become so 3 years from now, if we use the Cap properly and sign good FA's to mix with draftees.

Pete said he was surprised at how well Geno played. We all were, but their plan was to select a QB in this draft and develop him. A pick we get at 5 would be ready in about 3 years to go deep into
the playoffs. Combine that with drafted DL who will be coming into their own in about 3 years and we will have the makings of a serious team. If we hamstring ourselves with the Cap hit Geno will
take if he gets a big long term contract and we don't draft a QB who has a high ceiling we will still be talking about being stuck in mediocrity and having missed our chance to go to the SB.

Here's a copy of part of an article in the Athletic:

"The Seahawks have their own issue at quarterback, though not to the same extreme. The quarterback is the natural starting point when analyzing offensive problems, which is why it’s fair to wonder: Has Geno Smith regressed? Or has he fallen victim to a lackluster supporting cast?
Seattle’s downward slide began in Week 10 with a loss to the Bucs in Munich, so we’ll use that as the cutoff point when looking at the quarterback’s play in the back half of the season.
From Weeks 1 through 9, here is where Smith ranked in the following categories (all stats from TruMedia unless noted otherwise):
• First in completion percentage (73.1)
• Sixth in yards per attempt (7.77)
• 18th in air yards per attempt (7.52)
• Eighth in EPA per dropback (0.08)
• Third in passer rating (107.2)
• Seventh in passing TD rate (5.3)
• 13th in passing yards per game (244.3)
• First in off-target throw rate (6.7)
In that span, Smith committed five turnovers — one of those was a toss sweep that Dee Eskridge dropped in Week 7 — 24th-most among quarterbacks. According to Pro Football Focus, he had 12 turnover-worthy plays, tied for sixth-most in the league.
Since Week 10, here are Smith’s ranks in those same categories:
• 10th in completion percentage (67.7)
• 15th in yards per attempt (7.37)
• 23rd in air yards per attempt (7.23)
• 22nd in EPA per dropback (0.00)
• 11th in passer rating (97.6)
• 12th in passing TD rate (5.2)
• Sixth in passing yards per game (281.7)
• First in off-target throw rate (5.2)
In that span, Smith committed eight turnovers, fourth-most among quarterbacks. According to Pro Football Focus, he had 13 turnover-worthy plays, most in the league.
The most problematic among those numbers is how often Smith is putting the ball in harm’s way. The most recent hiccup came when Smith threw an interception in the end zone during the fourth quarter of Seattle’s 24-10 loss to the Chiefs on Saturday. At that point, the Seahawks trailed 17-3 with 7:48 remaining, and a touchdown would have made it a game..."

So is that a trend you want to invest heavily in?
It certainly wouldn't be a smart move to do so, but we haven't been real smart the last 10 years with Cap space or talent acquisition.

[Hawktawk]

There’s no question the numbers are down second half but whet your anticipated turnover margin for Geno is lower than JOSH ALLEN = will Levis then argument over ok .

Stafford threw 17 picks and 4 pick 6 es on a championship team a year ago . Carr had a 3 pick game and was benched after his 15th pick in 15 games . Mahomes threw 3 . All down the stretch .

Everyone got worse except Brock Purdy. As for KC there was no Lockett in the game and the pick was a mixup with Geno and Goodwin on a timing route . Against Carolina he was given one because he thought ( correctly ) the d was offsides but got reffed up .
Against the Rams Wagner was gifted a pick with replay showing our guy had the ball on the ground . Vs the raiders Lockett and DK screwed up on the route causing a pick but Geno still led us to 34 points .

Without a quick whistle on a clear recovery of a Jacob’s fumble or else the 4:13 second review of a catch and overturning it we might win . And after the game the story was Geno can’t close . Then he did vs Rams but it’s the rams right ?
And how about drops ? I can remember 2 for sure DK vs Saints and Lockett vs Giants . One taken away from us by a terrible holding call . And our line sucked down the stretch . Finished 27 pff I believe after being pretty good early which means they were dreadful down the stretch .
Did you say Munich ? Goodells F you to the Seahawks ? We’re 11-6 if that’s on a regular field at regular time . When I quit watching this sport someday it will be a game I’ll remember this Fd up league rigging .

Explain why the same Pff that says Genos top ten second half in most metrics instead of top 5 or better first half has him second as a free agent ? Stupid people in FOs ? Why should Geno sign for 50 cents on the dollar ? Not too bright ?

You don’t like the guy . I get it . Might have to live with it

[Old but Slow]

I like Geno. He played well and provided an unexpected spark and excitement to what was expected to be a dismal season. It would be great if we got a deal with him and he plays well again this year.

I also do not want to bet the future on him. It is not about whether we "like" Geno or not.

[Hawktawk]

[quote="Old but Slow"]I like Geno. He played well and provided an unexpected spark and excitement to what was expected to be a dismal season. It would be great if we got a deal with him and he plays well again this year.


I also do not want to bet the future on him.


I think it’s personal for some . As his biggest proponent from the 98 yards I don’t want to “ bet the future “ on him . Hell , look at some way bigger names teams bet the future on for higher prices and longer commitments Geno sucked at times second half but he did some good things too. I was most frustrated by game opening picks vs Carolina and especially the Rams . The Carolina game we lined up with 1 running back who was not healthy . I think he thought he had a chunk play there just for the wrong team . The Rams game he was bad , I’d say a reason we lost had we . But he played a really good game vs the Jets and stood up to the 9er defense till late in the 3rd. It’s what I have to go on . I think he’s the safest bet to win now but who knows . If he can’t perform sit him . I can see the club trying to
Protect against a free fall but don’t insult the man .

[NorthHawk]

It’s not like I don’t like Geno. I admire him sticking with it until he got another chance and capitalize on it.
But I also believe we have to look to the future and not hamstring us in the cap for a short term goal and especially
so for a player who had a good start but whose production fell off as the year wore on. That trend is troubling and a
huge concern going forward. With a young QB we can develop him for a year and hopefully he will become the Franchise
QB that Geno never will be.

[mykc14]

There’s no question the numbers are down second half but whet your anticipated turnover margin for Geno is lower than JOSH ALLEN = will Levis then argument over ok .

Holy Fallacy.