Battle in Seattle for QB1

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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby Aseahawkfan » Fri Jan 27, 2023 3:53 pm

NorthHawk wrote:Listen. It wasn't the scheme that hurt him although there was a learning curve. It was the lack of talent around him that hurt his production.
It would be like putting Tom Brady at 28 years old on the Cleveland Browns of the day. Using your logic, he wouldn't be worth a starting QB - because there was nobody around him for him to show his talents.

You're just looking for nits to pick with Levis.


I watched his highlights. He doesn't look that special to me. A lot of his plays were against weak competition. He doesn't look very mobile and in the modern NFL that isn't great.

Levis can put some nice touch on passes. But the coverage is a lot tighter in the NFL than I saw in his highlight plays. He has quite a few picks for college.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby NorthHawk » Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:49 pm

Go look at his 2021 highlights. It’s a very different look in a properly talented Offense.
The kid can do it all, but like all players in the draft he has some warts that have to be overcome.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby govandals » Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:05 am

NorthHawk wrote:Go look at his 2021 highlights. It’s a very different look in a properly talented Offense.
The kid can do it all, but like all players in the draft he has some warts that have to be overcome.


Yup, big difference in his '21 vs '22 tape, which, honestly, is a little concerning to me, and I am a huge Levis guy. If he goes to a team with a bad O line and no playmakers, he may struggle. I've seen him comped to Josh Allen, I've seen him comped to Carson Wentz. I think Justin Herbert is a fair comp. Would you rather have Geno at 30 million or Herbert on a rookie deal? That's an easy answer for me. I think Levis (and Stroud) will be gone by pick 5 anyway.

I've watched some Richardson games and I'm planning on watching more this week. Mixed bag so far. I think he and Bryce Young will be there at 5 if PCJS go that route.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby Hawktawk » Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:32 am

NorthHawk wrote:Go look at his 2021 highlights. It’s a very different look in a properly talented Offense.
The kid can do it all, but like all players in the draft he has some warts that have to be overcome.


Yup, big difference in his '21 vs '22 tape, which, honestly, is a little concerning to me, and I am a huge Levis guy. If he goes to a team with a bad O line and no playmakers, he may struggle. I've seen him comped to Josh Allen, I've seen him comped to Carson Wentz. I think Justin Herbert is a fair comp. Would you rather have Geno at 30 million or Herbert on a rookie deal? That's an easy answer for me. I think Levis (and Stroud) will be gone by pick 5 anyway.

I've watched some Richardson games and I'm planning on watching more this week. Mixed bag so far. I think he and Bryce Young will be there at 5 if PCJS go that route.[/quote]

Only you’re not getting Herbert necessarily . You’re getting Levis. Beyond that Herbert has Star Wars numbers but no hardware . Geno and Seattle smoked them like a cheap joint in their house .

Dittos for Josh Allen and his league leading 18 turnovers and Diggs screaming in his face after dropping a turd at home with boy wonder head coach and nice roster ?
I love the guy but what’s he gonna make next year to lose in the divisional ?

Say we take one of the top 3 guys . What will they cost when their rookie deal is gone ? Not trying to be an ass . I’m no capologist . I’m an analyst of play on the field . We can win with Geno . We proved it .

Did someone say Wendz? :lol: as good an argument as any to avoid a high pick on a guy from a lesser program as I’m aware of . I’ll trust Johns judgement . Just saying what I see . A bird in hand is worth 10000 in the bush .
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby NorthHawk » Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:02 am

Teams draft players with the highest upside at the top of the draft. It's a player that at some point can make the most impact on the team for years to come and QBs are at the top of that list.
We only have this year to get one of top ones so it better be a good one.
His 2021 play was much better than 2022 and was solely because of the lost talent around him, mostly on the OL and yet according to those that do the comparables, his numbers are on par with those
of Stroud and Young who benefited from having very good players around them including OL.
It doesn't really matter, though because the top 4 QBs are all worthy of being selected at the top of the draft and Levis in all likelihood won't be there at 5. He's played in a McVay system and prospered
so his learning curve will be much flatter and we know he can play under Center in a Pro style Offense. So he would be the perfect choice, but we select at 5 and not 3.
I think the top 2 QBs will be Levis and Stroud or Stroud and Levis followed by Bryce Young and Richardson.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby govandals » Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:19 am

Hawktawk wrote: We can win with Geno . We proved it .

Did someone say Wendz? :lol: as good an argument as any to avoid a high pick on a guy from a lesser program as I’m aware of . I’ll trust Johns judgement . Just saying what I see . A bird in hand is worth 10000 in the bush .


If going 9-8 and getting your butt kicked in the wild card round is your standard for winning. Then yes, we can win with Geno. Can we win a SB with Geno? I don't think so.

The Wentz comp was supposed to be in a negative light. Allen comp good, Wentz comp bad.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby RiverDog » Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:23 am

NorthHawk wrote:Teams draft players with the highest upside at the top of the draft. It's a player that at some point can make the most impact on the team for years to come and QBs are at the top of that list.
We only have this year to get one of top ones so it better be a good one.
His 2021 play was much better than 2022 and was solely because of the lost talent around him, mostly on the OL and yet according to those that do the comparables, his numbers are on par with those
of Stroud and Young who benefited from having very good players around them including OL.
It doesn't really matter, though because the top 4 QBs are all worthy of being selected at the top of the draft and Levis in all likelihood won't be there at 5. He's played in a McVay system and prospered
so his learning curve will be much flatter and we know he can play under Center in a Pro style Offense. So he would be the perfect choice, but we select at 5 and not 3.
I think the top 2 QBs will be Levis and Stroud or Stroud and Levis followed by Bryce Young and Richardson.


Unless there's a trade, IMO either Stroud or Levis will be there for us at #5. Neither the Bears at #1 or the Cards at #3 are in the market for a QB, so the odds of both of those guys being selected ahead of Young are below 50/50. My guess is that it would be Levis that would fall to us.

But we'll see. It's still a long ways from draft day, and a lot can happen.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby NorthHawk » Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:25 am

I'm pretty sure the Colts and Houston will take QB's. So the top two will definitely be off the board.
The teams behind us needing a QB are LV (7th), Atlanta (8th), and Carolina (9th). Not sure about the Saints and if they think Winston is the longer term answer.
Atlanta has never been shy about trading up for a player and I would expect them to move up for one of them. That would leave 1 top QB at 5.
I hope it's Levis or Stroud, but it will probably be Bryce Young from Alabama with Richardson being a dark horse in this race. Richardson needs the most time learning the Pro game but may have the highest upside in the long run.
He has all the physical tools, but I don't know what's between his ears.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby govandals » Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:44 am

It's very possible Chicago trades out of #1. Indy, Carolina, Vegas maybe even Seattle? Whether that happens or not, I expect Levis to be the first QB off the board. I would be comfortable with Richardson at 5. Top 5 picks don't happen often for this franchise, you gotta take your shot.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby NorthHawk » Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:05 pm

I went to PFN and used their Mock Draft simulator and with a couple of trade downs got the following:

12.Anthony Richardson QB
20.Michael Mayer TE
33.Calijah Kancey DT
40.Siaki Ika DT
52.Jalin Hyatt WR
83.Ivan Pace Jr. LB
121.Olusegun Oluwatimi OC
149.Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB
185.Keion White DE/DT

2024 HOU 1st
2024 NO 3rd

Some of their rankings are really suspect such as Kancey lasting until 23, Hyatt at 52 and Keion White lasting to 185.
However, it might be possible to trade down from 5 to 12 with Houston and get their next years 1st pick and #33. That would be a having your cake and eating it, too type of move.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby Old but Slow » Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:15 pm

The draft is a crap shoot. There are no sure things. Every player has up sides and down sides, and there is no way to know which they will be. All of the top QBs have question marks, Levis has injuries and interceptions, Richardson is raw and inaccurate, Young is too small, and Stroud played within an orchestrated offense. Carter has questions about attitude and conditioning, Anderson is rather small and doesn't cover well, Tyree Wilson is a one-trick-pony, and so on.

Additionally, there are questions among vets as well, as injuries, age, and coaching changes can affect performance. To wit, Geno Smith had a truly remarkable season and deserves his comeback player award, but how sure a thing is he? For the first 8 games of '22 he was ranked #2 QB by PFF with a rating of 88.4 (out of 100), but for the rest of the season was ranked #25 with a rating of 67.0. There are no sure things. Al Woods may have been our best DL, but he is getting old, Diggs is an enigma, Poona had a down year.

We started the season with Penny looking like the future, then Walker became the man. No sure things.

So, we are dependent on the front office and the team scouts to weigh the pros and cons and not let enthusiasm rule.

My feeling is that JS will make the picks, and that he will service us well. I expect that for the first time I will go through two straight drafts without breaking any furniture or dinnerware.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby Old but Slow » Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:20 pm

Nice looking draft, NH, and I agree with your skepticism. Indeed I would not be surprised to see Keion White go in the first round, maybe even at #20.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby NorthHawk » Sun Jan 29, 2023 10:18 am

Old but Slow wrote:Nice looking draft, NH, and I agree with your skepticism. Indeed I would not be surprised to see Keion White go in the first round, maybe even at #20.


First round? Wow. I was thinking 2nd to 3rd, but I've only seen a small sample of his play and the media hasn't paid much attention of him other than one who said he might surprise us in the draft.
A lot depends on how he plays in the Senior Bowl (which is where I first saw his name and tried to find out more) and at the Combine if he's invited. At times he looks really small for a DT but he is
surprising in his bull rush and seems to be quicker than many of the OL he played against.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby Hawktawk » Sun Jan 29, 2023 11:48 am

Stetson Bennett arrested for public intoxication at 6 am this morning after a report of someone beating on doors . He might be available a bit later then anticipated .
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby RiverDog » Sun Jan 29, 2023 11:52 am

Hawktawk wrote:Stetson Bennett arrested for public intoxication at 6 am this morning after a report of someone beating on doors . He might be available a bit later then anticipated .


I saw that. As Obi would say, he just tore up his lottery ticket.

But then, again, never trust the police, right? :lol:
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby Hawktawk » Mon Jan 30, 2023 4:59 am

Lets see the lapel cams. This one is a little more cut and dried if the dude is wasted and disheveled beating on motel doors :D . Also a far less serious offense too. college grad getting wasted on vacation locked out of room is my guess too blotto to remember which one. Just a guess?

But its a bad look and almost certainly will cost him in the draft. I think he was projected 3rd round? not a draft guru per se but it's the type of thing that could drop him right out or to irrelevant type status with a marginal starter talent to begin with. Expensive party.
Maybe we take him late and he and Geno can carpool to alcohol counseling :roll:
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby obiken » Mon Jan 30, 2023 5:39 am

RiverDog wrote:I saw that. As Obi would say, he just tore up his lottery ticket.

But then, again, never trust the police, right? :lol:


Not really, there is no Lottery ticket in the NFL, you know that. It was actually you or Bob that showed me he was not a good prospect, I thought he was 6-2, but he is only 5-11. No can say for sure how they will play in the league, only if they are a good prospect or not. He is accurate, a leader, but the whole character thing is now destroyed. How do you get so wasted that you are knocking on strangers doors! We had a Correctional Corporal that was driving down the road River, going South on I-5, weaving back and forth through all 4 lanes, at 3 am; he blew a .23! almost 4X the legal limit, yeah he lost a stripe and was lucky to keep his job!! You destroyed my real prospect in Carter, if he is not a high motor guy we need to pass, we don't need another Sheldon Richardson. I don't think this draft is that stacked this year at QB. next year yeah. I think if you get a shot at the Ohio state kid you have to take him, but really Bryce Young, I would pass on him too. I think now we go with CB's choice, the Center out of GA, its been 10 years since we have had a decent Center, might not be a bad move. After seeing these playoffs we are so far off Riv, its not even worth getting excited about.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:03 am

RiverDog wrote:I saw that. As Obi would say, he just tore up his lottery ticket.


obiken wrote:Not really, there is no Lottery ticket in the NFL, you know that. It was actually you or Bob that showed me he was not a good prospect, I thought he was 6-2, but he is only 5-11. No can say for sure how they will play in the league, only if they are a good prospect or not. He is accurate, a leader, but the whole character thing is now destroyed. How do you get so wasted that you are knocking on strangers doors! We had a Correctional Corporal that was driving down the road River, going South on I-5, weaving back and forth through all 4 lanes, at 3 am; he blew a .23! almost 4X the legal limit, yeah he lost a stripe and was lucky to keep his job!! You destroyed my real prospect in Carter, if he is not a high motor guy we need to pass, we don't need another Sheldon Richardson. I don't think this draft is that stacked this year at QB. next year yeah. I think if you get a shot at the Ohio state kid you have to take him, but really Bryce Young, I would pass on him too. I think now we go with CB's choice, the Center out of GA, its been 10 years since we have had a decent Center, might not be a bad move. After seeing these playoffs we are so far off Riv, its not even worth getting excited about.


A first round draft pick gets a lot more money than a 3rd or 4th rounder, so in that sense, Bennett did tear up his lottery ticket as now there's not a snowball's chance in hell that he'll go in the first round.

In addition to being a little shorter, he's also a little older as he will turn 26 in the middle of his rookie season. Lamar Jackson just turned 26 earlier this month, and he already has 5 years under his belt.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby tarlhawk » Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:24 am

I try not to get too caught up in the speculation leading up to the draft but I often enjoy the results even though I know a lot of the posters here have expressed disappointment in our drafting ...with the exception of last years draft. Can we afford a well paid Geno without derailing the recent re-stocking of our teams talent level?

Whether Geno stays here or not I felt he deserves some deserved gratitude from the teams fan base for keeping our team's respect in a season that easily could have been earmarked for disaster. Our o-line interior should get some early attention...to allow Geno a cleaner pocket to step up into...but 3rd rd ish maybe. We need our draft front liners (1rst and 2nd rounders) for dynamic impact makers on defense...more tackling machines with speed to burn I hope. If a high impact WR/RB has "slipped" into our laps in 2nd or 3rd round then lets keep our offense humming!

I love a swarming/punishing defense but the reality of NFL clamping down on smothering defenses (via altering/emphasising rules to enforce)...seems too prohibitive to expect a stellar defense...just need one to sustain a high octane offense...and close out games we have a 4rth qtr lead in....Go Hawks
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:46 am

A first round draft pick gets a lot more money than a 3rd or 4th rounder, so in that sense, Bennett did tear up his lottery ticket as now there's not a snowball's chance in hell that he'll go in the first round.

In addition to being a little shorter, he's also a little older as he will turn 26 in the middle of his rookie season. Lamar Jackson just turned 26 earlier this month, and he already has 5 years under his belt.


I doubt Bennett was ever considered a 1st round pick anyway.
So what if he's 26. QBs are playing into their late 30's so that would mean at least 10 years of productivity and most teams would take that stability for a decade - if he's good enough.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:51 am

Whether Geno stays here or not I felt he deserves some deserved gratitude from the teams fan base for keeping our team's respect in a season that easily could have been earmarked for disaster. Our o-line interior should get some early attention...to allow Geno a cleaner pocket to step up into...


I think Geno played over his head the first half of the season and made himself a lot of money. His productivity started to wane at the end and his INTs were up.
It's why I think he should get about $30M guaranteed on a 5 year, $50M contract with 2 voidable years. He could be a step gap for a young QB that we draft in the 1st round.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby obiken » Mon Jan 30, 2023 8:16 am

NorthHawk wrote:I think Geno played over his head the first half of the season and made himself a lot of money. His productivity started to wane at the end and his INTs were up.
It's why I think he should get about $30M guaranteed on a 5 year, $50M contract with 2 voidable years. He could be a step gap for a young QB that we draft in the 1st round.


Thats what I think, but its hard to argue a 70% completion percentage NH. I just think if you pay more than 25 mill a year for GS, your not smart. However, IF I was Hawk Talk and had a man crush on him, I could say the defense was more the problem this year than Geno, and he would be right.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby tarlhawk » Mon Jan 30, 2023 8:18 am

I think Geno's regression was more a reflection of modern NFL film study breakdown than any flustered failure on Geno's play. Geno thrives with Shane Waldron's play calling...as Waldon continues to evolve his playbook to adjust with the opponents defensive film study...then continued improvement can be anticipated in Geno's execution. Just like poker any "tells" must be abandoned when an audible gets called and the opposing defense is reacting to "studied tendencies" of your QB. Geno helps counter the defenses efforts by using multiple targets for "clutch" plays. Its chess and "cat and mouse" out on the playing field...staying calm helps keep those passes from "straying" when under pressure. Go Hawks
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:23 am

tarlhawk wrote:I think Geno's regression was more a reflection of modern NFL film study breakdown than any flustered failure on Geno's play. Geno thrives with Shane Waldron's play calling...as Waldon continues to evolve his playbook to adjust with the opponents defensive film study...then continued improvement can be anticipated in Geno's execution. Just like poker any "tells" must be abandoned when an audible gets called and the opposing defense is reacting to "studied tendencies" of your QB. Geno helps counter the defenses efforts by using multiple targets for "clutch" plays. Its chess and "cat and mouse" out on the playing field...staying calm helps keep those passes from "straying" when under pressure. Go Hawks


Even Pete talks about this Offense being QB friendly and it's true. In the early part of the year it was so abnormal for us to run a modern Offense that teams really didn't have a book on us and our trends.
By mid season they did and the numbers reflect that regarding Geno as he trended toward the norm. That being said he had a huge number of dropped INTs and had they been caught he would have been near
the top for interceptions.

Paying Geno a $55M contract over 5 years with the 2 voidable years and $30M guaranteed would give us a reasonable Cap hit of $10M/year. It would allow us to get a FA or maybe 2 for the DL and also
pay him more money than he's made his entire career to this date guaranteed. If he performs well for his 4th year he would end up with $40M - again with a small Cap hit.
If we signed him to this type of contract we could also draft a QB and let him develop without a lot of pressure as a #1 pick much like KC did with Mahomes and teams used to do.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby c_hawkbob » Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:34 am

You're dreaming if you think $11M/year is even half of what he'll sign for.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:57 am

c_hawkbob wrote:You're dreaming if you think $11M/year is even half of what he'll sign for.


Then give him a $100M contract with $30M guaranteed. Then cut him after the 2nd or 3rd year.
It's all about the guarantees, not the contract total.
And I don't think there's going to be a lot of interest from many teams. His age, fall off of production, and higher interceptions along with a QB friendly Offense will probably
mean very few suitors other than us.
But it wouldn't surprise me if we ended up bidding against ourselves again and being stuck with a bigger contract than needed and no Cap space. It seems to be what our FO does.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby MackStrongIsMyHero » Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:59 am

I think the film study was one aspect of Geno's cooling off; the other was trying to do too much when the defense couldn't stop anyone. He'll never be a guy that can take over the game; not a bad thing. Just means you need to have better performance from defense and special teams. Still not sold on $30 million/year for him.

Also don't get the Levis and Richardson love. Not in the first round anyway. Levis, in both 2022 and 2021, played below average against real competition. Richardson wasn't much better in his limited time as a starter. These guys may have something to offer the NFL, but not right out the gate. 3rd round at the earliest and need to sit a couple of seasons.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jan 30, 2023 10:40 am

I think even our FO is smart enough to not give Geno #30M/year.
I also think any other team interested would view him as we do - namely a stop gap QB while a young QB develops. So I don't think he will get a high offer.

It's true that there are no Joe Burrows or Peyton Mannings in this draft, but the upside of the top 4 is really high. Richardson might have the best tools but he also probably has the lowest floor.
Levis is almost as gifted and has a much higher floor. He also played in an Offense that is much like our current one and he excelled in it so his learning curve would be much flatter than the others.

We won't have another chance at a top QB again for quite a while because the talent is good enough to be marginal but not good enough to challenge in a big way and Geno isn't the guy to take us
to the top. That will be about 3 years from now and he will be an old QB by then.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby mykc14 » Mon Jan 30, 2023 12:32 pm

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:
Levis, in both 2022 and 2021, played below average against real competition. Richardson wasn't much better in his limited time as a starter. These guys may have something to offer the NFL, but not right out the gate. 3rd round at the earliest and need to sit a couple of seasons.


This is one reason QB's are so hard to evaluate. Levis was dealing with an extreme lack of talent surrounding him at Kentucky, especially last year. Both Richardson and Levis were playing at the SEC- against the best defenses in the nation week in and week out. To say that they played below average against real competition is a bit mis-leading. Levis and his RB (who was hurt all season) are probably going to be the only two Kentucky players selected in the whole draft. He was playing with an extreme talent deficit compared to guys like Stroud and Young. I worry more about drafting a QB who performed well in a College style offense with more talent than a guy like Levis. With that being said it is a crap shoot. I like Stroud and Levis, even though Stroud is the perfect example of a type of QB I worry about. He played with the most offensive talent in the Nation, behind probably the best OL in the nation. If you switched both Stroud and Levis's college situation who knows what their stats would look like, but it would be interesting to see.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby Hawktawk » Mon Jan 30, 2023 2:07 pm

Ive seen some speculation Levis could be the first QB off the board. Im no draft guru for sure.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby mykc14 » Mon Jan 30, 2023 2:19 pm

Hawktawk wrote:Ive seen some speculation Levis could be the first QB off the board. Im no draft guru for sure.


I've seen that too. It's going to be interesting. The good news is- if you like the top 4 QB's then we are guaranteed to get either one of those QB's or one of the top 2 defensive players in the draft. We are in a good position.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby MackStrongIsMyHero » Mon Jan 30, 2023 3:32 pm

I emphasized 2021 second since that year's team was more talented; he still didn't have an upper level showing. He's avoided playing in his bowl game and the Senior Bowl and East-West Shrine game this year. He's banking it all on the combine and/or his pro day and wowing with physical numbers. By real competition, I mean SEC games. Had 16 of them in his career; only 4-5 of those opponents would be above his team's level. The rest at or below. The talent argument doesn't move the needle for me. Stroud and Young had good teams around them, but they also executed at a high level against everybody they played. If those two are gone at 5, move on and get a blue chipper at another position.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby Aseahawkfan » Mon Jan 30, 2023 4:04 pm

I'm with Mack on Levis. He doesn't look particularly special to me, especially for the modern NFL with the vicious pass rushers. The reality of the modern NFL is having a high quality O-line is a rarity and the pass rushers are huge, fast, and vicious. The blitzes are complex. It's hard to stay clean. If you can't move around, you're going to end up getting beat up a lot. A good arm when protected won't do much as QBs aren't very well protected even with all the rules. They still get hit a lot and have a lot pressure coming after them.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby mykc14 » Mon Jan 30, 2023 4:24 pm

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:I emphasized 2021 second since that year's team was more talented; he still didn't have an upper level showing. He's avoided playing in his bowl game and the Senior Bowl and East-West Shrine game this year. He's banking it all on the combine and/or his pro day and wowing with physical numbers. By real competition, I mean SEC games. Had 16 of them in his career; only 4-5 of those opponents would be above his team's level. The rest at or below. The talent argument doesn't move the needle for me. Stroud and Young had good teams around them, but they also executed at a high level against everybody they played. If those two are gone at 5, move on and get a blue chipper at another position.


I can't say for sure what Levis will be in the NFL but I can definitely say that he wasn't playing with MORE talent than the other team in his SEC games. The Wildcats had 2 offensive players drafted in the first 4 rounds of last years draft and 3 total (2nd round WR, 4th round OL, and 5th round OL). This year he will have a RB drafted probably after round three. This means that in his two years as a starter he played with 4 other players who were drafted on offense and only 1 of those was drafted before round 4. He was playing with an extreme lack of talent compared to other SEC schools. As far as SEC teams with more talent there clearly are more than 4-5 teams with more talent. Here is who he has played over the past 2 years Georgia x2, Tennessee x2,Florida x2, South Carolina x2, Miss State x2, LSU, and Ole Miss all clearly have way more talent that Kentucky. Missouri and Vanderbelt are probably at the same level as Kentucky talent wise. Without Levis it wouldn't have been shocking if the Wildcats didn't win a game over SEC schools the past two years. A really good example of how bad the Wildcats were the two games Levis didn't play. They came up with under 300 yards of offense vs. South Carolina in a 24-14 loss and looked terrible in a bowl loss to Iowa in which they could only muster 180 yards of offense and a 0 points against a not great Iowa team.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby mykc14 » Mon Jan 30, 2023 4:28 pm

Aseahawkfan wrote:I'm with Mack on Levis. He doesn't look particularly special to me, especially for the modern NFL with the vicious pass rushers. The reality of the modern NFL is having a high quality O-line is a rarity and the pass rushers are huge, fast, and vicious. The blitzes are complex. It's hard to stay clean. If you can't move around, you're going to end up getting beat up a lot. A good arm when protected won't do much as QBs aren't very well protected even with all the rules. They still get hit a lot and have a lot pressure coming after them.


That's one thing about Levis that actually is exciting is that he is very mobile. Another positive is that he has played in our offensive system before as Liam Cohen was his OC in 2021. Cohen had previously served as WR coach and QB coach for McVay and the Rams.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby Hawktawk » Mon Jan 30, 2023 5:21 pm

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:I think the film study was one aspect of Geno's cooling off; the other was trying to do too much when the defense couldn't stop anyone. He'll never be a guy that can take over the game; not a bad thing. Just means you need to have better performance from defense and special teams. Still not sold on $30 million/year for him.

Also don't get the Levis and Richardson love. Not in the first round anyway. Levis, in both 2022 and 2021, played below average against real competition. Richardson wasn't much better in his limited time as a starter. These guys may have something to offer the NFL, but not right out the gate. 3rd round at the earliest and need to sit a couple of seasons.

After watching the 9ers get to the Conference final with 4 QBs you have to wonder how a guy who took every snap despite 46 sacks and hundreds of hits might do there or …..?

Genos line pretty much stunk down the stretch . In several games second half of season we had no run game . None . The Carolina game and second niner game Homer was the only back dressed and he was a mess physically . The defense sucked which not only puts you behind the 8 ball but limits posessions which limits opportunities and forces the offense to score every posession or get buried . Film study is easy when there’s no run game . Nobody liked the messy second half but I won’t go through the litany of calls , no calls , replay reversals and other factors in those stats as well .Geno lost games scoring 23 twice, 24, 32 vs the saints on a day Geno should have had 5 TDs but went home a loser that can’t close . 34 vs the Raiders lose .

Geno can take over a game if he’s got a decent team around him . I look at the last 3 for some idea of where I think he is , whether it was some clear regression . The Jets was one of his better games second half. Rams was pretty ugly .

But I think it was a bit of overreacting following the playoff loss . It’s easy to forget Geno went most of the first half with 1 incompletion and a passer rating near 140. His scramble led to 3 points and a halftime lead after dropping a dime on DK that someone like Purdy could never do . As good a throw as anyone in the league .
Then he sits for 7:55 after the half watching our pathetic defense get run over . Then he drives us into the red zone and makes the connection to Lockett for a completion for 3rd and 2 on second and long except wait ! Man downfield ! 5 yards . Ticky tack bs from a crew that went Stevie wonder on point of attack holds on Ryan Neal and Tariq . 1 set up a score . One was a house call . But oh no . Man downfield , 1 of 3 such calls on drives that wound up turnovers . The fumble ended the game . The pick was thrown in the middle of a flurry of ticky tack flags but I don’t think it mattered . Geno can do it all if he’s standing up and don’t forget his 366 rushing yards for a 5.4 average .
He’s a more sure thing the next 3 years then any rookie .
Last edited by Hawktawk on Mon Jan 30, 2023 6:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby Aseahawkfan » Mon Jan 30, 2023 5:33 pm

mykc14 wrote:That's one thing about Levis that actually is exciting is that he is very mobile. Another positive is that he has played in our offensive system before as Liam Cohen was his OC in 2021. Cohen had previously served as WR coach and QB coach for McVay and the Rams.


He doesn't look mobile. His rushing stats are pedestrian. If we draft him, I'll root for him. But he doesn't look special to me.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby MackStrongIsMyHero » Mon Jan 30, 2023 5:52 pm

mykc14 wrote:I can't say for sure what Levis will be in the NFL but I can definitely say that he wasn't playing with MORE talent than the other team in his SEC games. The Wildcats had 2 offensive players drafted in the first 4 rounds of last years draft and 3 total (2nd round WR, 4th round OL, and 5th round OL). This year he will have a RB drafted probably after round three. This means that in his two years as a starter he played with 4 other players who were drafted on offense and only 1 of those was drafted before round 4. He was playing with an extreme lack of talent compared to other SEC schools. As far as SEC teams with more talent there clearly are more than 4-5 teams with more talent. Here is who he has played over the past 2 years Georgia x2, Tennessee x2,Florida x2, South Carolina x2, Miss State x2, LSU, and Ole Miss all clearly have way more talent that Kentucky. Missouri and Vanderbelt are probably at the same level as Kentucky talent wise. Without Levis it wouldn't have been shocking if the Wildcats didn't win a game over SEC schools the past two years. A really good example of how bad the Wildcats were the two games Levis didn't play. They came up with under 300 yards of offense vs. South Carolina in a 24-14 loss and looked terrible in a bowl loss to Iowa in which they could only muster 180 yards of offense and a 0 points against a not great Iowa team.


And I disagree on your assessment of the talent of his competition.

UGA: 'nuff said; they're way better.
2021 UT: no defense.
UF: finished 6-7 in 2021 and 2022.
2021 LSU: finished 6-7.
2022 Ole Miss: finished 8-5.
MsState: squashed him in 2021 then barely lost to them in 2022; State finished 7-6 and 9-4.
So.Car: finished 7-6 and then 8-5.
UK: Finished 10-3 and 7-6.

The only teams far and away better than UK were UGA and 2022 Tennessee. That's 3 out of 16 games he has an excuse. The arguments for getting him, while compelling for some, don't do it for me.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby mykc14 » Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:58 pm

Aseahawkfan wrote:He doesn't look mobile. His rushing stats are pedestrian. If we draft him, I'll root for him. But he doesn't look special to me.


Rushing stats for College QB's are tough to quantify because they take sacks away from their total rushing yards. An example would be Josh Allen who had 500 yards and 7 TDs as a junior and 200 and 5 TDs as a senior.. Trevor Lawrence had 200 yards rushing as a senior... Dangerous had 80 yards rushing as a senior... Mahomes had 280... CJ Stroud had 100 this year... Bryce Young 185- I could go on but I'm sure you get my point. Also, I get that he doesn't look special and he may be a total flop in the NFL, but he has an incredibly high ceiling.
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Re: Battle in Seattle for QB1

Postby mykc14 » Mon Jan 30, 2023 10:39 pm

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:
And I disagree on your assessment of the talent of his competition.

UGA: 'nuff said; they're way better.
2021 UT: no defense.
UF: finished 6-7 in 2021 and 2022.
2021 LSU: finished 6-7.
2022 Ole Miss: finished 8-5.
MsState: squashed him in 2021 then barely lost to them in 2022; State finished 7-6 and 9-4.
So.Car: finished 7-6 and then 8-5.
UK: Finished 10-3 and 7-6.

The only teams far and away better than UK were UGA and 2022 Tennessee. That's 3 out of 16 games he has an excuse. The arguments for getting him, while compelling for some, don't do it for me.


Obviously we aren't going to agree on this one and just because a team finishes better W-L wise than another team doesn't mean they have more talent overall. An 8-5 record on the SEC means that you are probably a pretty good football team. I am confident in my assessment I have looked at draft picks from these schools and only Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Miss State have similar or less players drafted than Kentucky. Furthermore it doesn't take a genius to know that Most of the big name SEC colleges are going to get better recruits than Kentucky. The fact that Kentucky was able to compete with these teams despite the lack of talent could indicate that Levis elevated his teams play to the point that they were fighting out of their weight class.

Recruit rankings
2023: UK 13 of 14
2022: UK 5 of 14 (after their impressive 10-3 record)
2021: UK 12 of 14
2020: UK 10 of 14
2019: UK 12 of 14

If you look at players being drafted the information looks similar. Kentucky is in the bottom 4 in the SEC in terms of players being drafted. Levis didn't have much talent surrounding him. He realistically could be the only Kentucky player drafted this year.
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