Seahawks at 49'ers Wild Card Preview

[Agent 86]

Article from the Seahawks Athletic writer previewing the game for your reading pleasure:

For Seahawks to upset ‘freaking loaded’ 49ers, their stars must shine brightest

By Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jan 12, 2023

RENTON, Wash. — The Seahawks partied all night on Sunday, their hard work over a 17-game regular season rewarded with a trip to the postseason. By Monday morning, it was time to lock in. There’s no time to waste when preparing for a team as good as the 49ers.

“They’re loaded,” Seattle coach Pete Carroll said Monday afternoon. “And they’re loaded and healthy and on a roll and about as hot as you can possibly get.”

Despite playing with a seventh-round rookie at the game’s most important position, the 49ers do in fact have one of the most stacked rosters in football.

They made the midseason move to add ex-Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey, a one-time Pro Bowler and first-team All-Pro after putting up more than 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in 2019. He made his San Francisco debut in Week 7 and played only 23 offensive snaps, totaling eight carries and two targets in the team’s 44-23 drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs.

San Francisco hasn’t lost a game since. And McCaffrey has been on fire.

From Weeks 8 to 17, McCaffrey ranked 10th among running backs in rushing yards (708), seventh in rushing touchdowns (six) and seventh in first-down carries (37). In that same span, he led all running backs in receiving yards (440) while ranking second in receptions (50) and receiving touchdowns (four).

McCaffrey is just one of four 49ers with a 1,000-yard receiving season under his belt. Brandon Aiyuk hit that mark (1,015) this season and added eight touchdowns. Tight end George Kittle, a four-time Pro Bowler and one-time first-team All-Pro, has done it twice. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel had more than 1,400 yards last year in his All-Pro season. The 49ers have an unbelievably dangerous set of skill players.

“Because of the amount of weapons that (coach Kyle Shanahan) has, you have to account for everybody, so it makes it a difficult challenge,” Seattle defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt said. “It’s not like you can rotate a coverage or do things where you can eliminate one guy. You have to defend all 11 guys out there on the field. He does a great job of scheming up, calling it, and everything else, so like I said, it’s a great challenge that we have in front of us.”

With that cast of skill guys, it’s no wonder Brock Purdy, the final pick in the 2023 draft, has come in and kept the show running smoothly. All he must do is run point guard and dish the ball to his playmakers. Since coach Kyle Shanahan took over in 2017, San Francisco leads the league in yards after catch per reception (6.36). With Purdy as the starter, that number is 6.77, third-most behind Kansas City and Carolina.

“Their offense is structured to get the ball in the guys’ hands, and they are really quick with their throws,” Carroll said. “Ball gets on the perimeter a lot, quickly, to give guys a chance to catch and run. They are a really effective catch-and-run team. You look at their yardage after catch, they are as effective as anybody has ever been.”

And that’s just the offense.

Defensive end Nick Bosa led the league in sacks with 18.5, and he has made the Pro Bowl every year of his career that he’s played a full season (he tore his ACL two weeks into 2020). He may win NFL Defensive Player of the Year in February. Fred Warner, a one-time All-Pro who is the best coverage linebacker in football, makes it hard to throw over the middle against San Francisco’s defense. Ditto for fellow inside linebacker Dre Greenlaw.

TruMedia tracks “splash” plays, loosely defined as plays that are wins for the defense (TFLs, sacks, pass breakups, turnovers, drive-killing stops on third and fourth down, etc.). Both Warner and Greenlaw ranked top 20 among linebackers. Strong safety Talanoa Hufanga ranked sixth among defensive backs in that same category.

Carroll wasn’t blowing smoke when he called 49ers “freaking loaded in every direction.”

But the Seahawks aren’t exactly bereft of talent. Which is why this matchup comes down to whether their stars show up on Saturday.

DK Metcalf is over 1,000 receiving yards for the second time in three years. One of the best single-game performances of his career — a 12-catch, 161-yard, two-touchdown day in 2020 — came against the 49ers. Tyler Lockett is over 1,000 yards receiving for the fourth straight year. Running back Kenneth Walker III topped 1,000 yards on the ground despite not entering the starting lineup until Week 6.

Geno Smith belongs in the star power discussion as well. He ranked top 10 among quarterbacks in passing yards (eighth), touchdown rate (seventh), completion percentage (first), yards per attempt (ninth) and QBR (sixth). He was a top-10 quarterback this season.

If those stars shine, Seattle has a shot at an upset.

Lockett has played his part against the 49ers this season. In two games, he recorded 175 yards and 16 catches on 20 targets with nine receptions for first downs; the rest of Seattle’s pass catchers had 13 total first-down receptions. Much is riding on the shoulders of Metcalf, the team’s highest-paid by player. He has been held in check against the league’s top defense. In two games, he produced 90 yards and 11 receptions on 15 targets with only four first-down receptions. His longest catches went for only 13 yards.

The 49ers’ defense is reminiscent of the Legion of Boom-era Seahawks in that they rely largely on simplicity. They rush four, play coverage and, in the case of guarding Metcalf and Lockett, trust their corners to win their matchups against the opponent’s top targets.

“They pretty much make you beat their defense,” Carroll said. “They have enough variety in their scheme that allows them to have some answers to do stuff, but they are pretty much going to play what they play, and they are going to rely on the rush be to the factor, is kind of how they do it. Not as exotic as some other teams, but they have their ways.”

Beating the 49ers is contingent on Smith and Metcalf picking their spots properly and winning the battles on the outside against San Francisco’s cornerbacks. It’s been tough sledding thus far. Against Emmanuel Mosley in Week 2, Metcalf was targeted twice and had one catch for 12 yards; the other pass was broken up. Against Charvarius Ward in Week 15, Metcalf caught four balls on six targets for 33 yards. Those numbers must be way up on Saturday if Seattle wants to pull this one out.

“One thing I am confident in is DK and Shane (Waldron) and our ability to find ways to get him the football,” Smith said. “For me it’s just going out there, making my reads and throwing the football and trusting the guys around me. Every week, Shane comes up with a great plan, and us as players, we’ve got to make sure we bring it to life and execute.”

Seattle’s defensive stars need to step up as well. Quandre Diggs, who on Wednesday was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week, is the only player on Seattle’s defense with multiple Pro Bowl honors (he’s been voted in each of the last three years). He’s one of two defensive captains (along with nose tackle Al Woods), and his leadership and playmaking have been critical to a defense that is playing three first-time starters at cornerback and has started five different strong safeties.

The Seahawks need Diggs at his best with the ball in the air. He is tied for second on the team with four interceptions, and he’s had at least three in each of the last six seasons. He’d have more if not for three dropped interceptions, two of which came in losses to San Francisco. Seattle can’t afford those types of plays on Saturday. His Week 2 drop wasn’t all that consequential, seeing as it came in the end zone on fourth-and-9 from the Seattle 39; he actually would have cost Seattle field position by catching it.

But the second one — in Week 15 — could have been a game-changer. It was third-and-11 from the San Francisco 36, the Seahawks trailing 7-3 at the two-minute warning in the first half. Purdy threw a ball over the middle that hit Diggs in the chest before bouncing to the turf.

Had he caught it, Seattle’s offense would have had the ball in 49ers territory. Instead, Seattle began its next drive from the 19, and it ultimately ended when San Francisco recovered a Travis Homer fumble and returned it to the Seattle 6-yard line. McCaffrey scored two plays later.

Homer’s ball security isn’t directly tied to Diggs’ hands, but the point is that against a team as good as San Francisco with so many big-time playmakers on both sides of the ball, there’s virtually no room for “almost” plays. Any turnover can be the one that swings the game in Seattle’s favor.

The same applies to rookie Tariq Woolen, who has effectively become one of Seattle’s stars in his rookie campaign. He held a share of the interception title through the regular season and could have been alone atop that leaderboard had he caught the interception Mike White tried to give him in Week 17, or the one Baker Mayfield tried to give him on Sunday. Pass breakups are fine; turnovers change games.

There are factors that will decide the game, of course. Pressure on the quarterback matters. Neither kicker can afford to be impacted by inclement weather. Efficiency on third down and in the red zone will be critical.

But at the end of the day, big-time players make big-time, game-changing plays. So the primary question for the Seahawks is whether their big-time players can outshine San Francisco’s on Saturday with the season on the line.

[obiken]

I mean sure, Its the NFL not CFB, we could win, but it comes down to play makers, and they just have more. I think given the weather, 9.5 is a little high.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I didn't want to start a thread, but my best friend, a devout Niners' fan, keeps harping on Ward standing DK up. DK went 7 of 9 for 55 in the last meeting, but I remember the announcers even talking about Ward getting physical with Metcalf. So, what's Metcalf's deal? He's got 3" and 30ish lbs on just about every corner in the league, yet the likes of Ramsey and Ward cause trouble for him. It seems to me Metcalf isnt' willing to fight his way off the line. I've never seen him do what I recall Donald Driver doing to a CB that kept trying to jam him. Drive finally manhandled the dude; threw him down at the line instead of running his route. Metcalf is screaming soft and lazy to me; he's not using his size to his advantage for whatever reason. He should be making CBs hate tangling with him. Instead, his lack of mental toughness gets exploited. I want to see him make a statement tomorrow. Here's hoping.

[RiverDog]

I didn't want to start a thread, but my best friend, a devout Niners' fan, keeps harping on Ward standing DK up. DK went 7 of 9 for 55 in the last meeting, but I remember the announcers even talking about Ward getting physical with Metcalf. So, what's Metcalf's deal? He's got 3" and 30ish lbs on just about every corner in the league, yet the likes of Ramsey and Ward cause trouble for him. It seems to me Metcalf isnt' willing to fight his way off the line. I've never seen him do what I recall Donald Driver doing to a CB that kept trying to jam him. Drive finally manhandled the dude; threw him down at the line instead of running his route. Metcalf is screaming soft and lazy to me; he's not using his size to his advantage for whatever reason. He should be making CBs hate tangling with him. Instead, his lack of mental toughness gets exploited. I want to see him make a statement tomorrow. Here's hoping.

It probably deserves its own thread, but I have to agree with this thought. Metcalf has the tendency to disappear for long periods of time. Last week vs. the Rams, he caught just 3 passes in 8 targets for a modest 40 yards and no TD's. He's also shown a continuing tendency to draw stupid-is-as-stupid-does penalties, nearly drew another one last week when he got into it with Ramsey by shoving his hand in his face mask, a clear violation that he's lucky didn't get flagged.

We'll see what happens tomorrow. The weather could be a huge factor as there's both a flood watch and a wind advisory issued for tomorrow afternoon in the Santa Clara area. The field is already saturated with rain and could turn into a real mess.

I'm going with 20-17 Niners.

[Aseahawkfan]

I'm going 23-17 Seahawks. No logical reason. I'm being a straight up homer. Shock the world.

[Stream Hawk]

I love the homerism, Asea! I suppose I was way too optimistic last week calling for a blowout. I think the weather will definitely affect SF. Hopefully Caroll/Hurtt stack the box and put extra help spying on McCaffrey. He is the X factor - or simply the biggest factor that would beat us. So hopefully Geno stops his jitteriness/dumb interceptions. Also, perhaps k9 shows up in a much needed ground game.

F it 28-24 Sea

[Agent 86]

So many factors in this game, but I think our O-line has to be the difference. They are gonna have to have the game of their lives to both open up holes for Walker and keep Geno upright. Will be interesting to see what kind of gameplan Waldron comes up with to help keep that pass rush at bay.

And agreed about DK, crazy to think for the stats he has put up in 4 years (they are up there), I don't consider him being an "elite" receiver in this league. He would be a 2nd or 3rd tier WR IMO. Tomorrow's game is an opportunity for him to take that next step. It seems he is always trying to "prove" himself to the 49'ers defense, like "I am tougher than you and better than you". Same when he plays against top tier CB's like Ramsay and Surtain. He needs to not worry about any of that. He is always at his best when he gets in someone else's kitchen first, but too often it is the other team getting in his. Catch the ball, give it to the ref, keep the mouth shut, and head back to the huddle. Don't mistake me for not loving DK, I do. He is just very frustrating at times to watch, as I think alot of you will agree.

Super pumped for this game!

[Old but Slow]

With Metcalf, it is like he is still a little kid with too much energy to contain himself.

[NorthHawk]

I didn't want to start a thread, but my best friend, a devout Niners' fan, keeps harping on Ward standing DK up. DK went 7 of 9 for 55 in the last meeting, but I remember the announcers even talking about Ward getting physical with Metcalf. So, what's Metcalf's deal? He's got 3" and 30ish lbs on just about every corner in the league, yet the likes of Ramsey and Ward cause trouble for him. It seems to me Metcalf isnt' willing to fight his way off the line. I've never seen him do what I recall Donald Driver doing to a CB that kept trying to jam him. Drive finally manhandled the dude; threw him down at the line instead of running his route. Metcalf is screaming soft and lazy to me; he's not using his size to his advantage for whatever reason. He should be making CBs hate tangling with him. Instead, his lack of mental toughness gets exploited. I want to see him make a statement tomorrow. Here's hoping.

I've thought for a while that he gets too caught up in the one on one situations and loses sight of the big picture and how it affects the productivity of the Offense. Basically they get under his skin and he doesn't rise above it.

[NorthHawk]

We have a chance to win this game.

The weather equalizes a lot of play.
They have more pressure.
The Seahawks have nothing to lose.
Their QB is a raw rookie but because of the weather the playbook might be scaled back. There's a lot of pressure on him because he's expected to lead.
It's difficult to win 3 games against the same opponent in one year.

On the other hand they have a great deal more talent than us and a better Defense.
If they get their run game going they could gash us quite badly up the middle.
Their Receivers know what routes they are trying to run and on a slippery surface the defender has to react.

We'll see how it works out.

[RiverDog]

I'm worried about our offensive line. In a game like this, it usually comes down to the battle in the trenches, and despite all of the hoopla surrounding our two rookie tackles, our offensive line finished the regular season ranked 27th in the league, according to PFF.

That means that we're going to have to depend on help from our tight ends and running backs to chip in, and with our best blocking TE Will Dissly out and K9's horrid blocking ability, it's going to be a challenge to keep Geno clean.

I'd like to see us use Dee Jay Dallas more in this game than we normally would. If it's true that K9 excels under conditions that entails good footing for his cutback style of running, today might not be the best of circumstances for him. Dallas is a little more of a straight ahead runner, and he's a lot better blocker.

[NorthHawk]

I'm worried about our offensive line. In a game like this, it usually comes down to the battle in the trenches, and despite all of the hoopla surrounding our two rookie tackles, our offensive line finished the regular season ranked 27th in the league, according to PFF.

That means that we're going to have to depend on help from our tight ends and running backs to chip in, and with our best blocking TE Will Dissly out and K9's horrid blocking ability, it's going to be a challenge to keep Geno clean.

I'd like to see us use Dee Jay Dallas more in this game than we normally would. If it's true that K9 excels under conditions that entails good footing for his cutback style of running, today might not be the best of circumstances for him. Dallas is a little more of a straight ahead runner, and he's a lot better blocker.

Dee Jay is dinged up. We brought in a RB from the PS in case he can't go.
The 9ers have the same problems as us with McCaffrey and Deebo both relying on sharp cuts in the run game. The difference is that they are also very good receivers and that's part of the talent advantage SF has.
I would expect the short pass game from them along with some good runs when our DL falters or is overmatched. A big part of the WCO is short passes to the RB's to get them on the edge. Our Offense is based
on a similar philosophy - not the same, but loosely associated with the Shanahan Offenses of the past. Both are very QB friendly so it remains to be seen what and how much they ask of Purdy.

PFT is reporting that there could be Thunderstorms at game time and rain all game.

[Hawktawk]

I'm worried about our offensive line. In a game like this, it usually comes down to the battle in the trenches, and despite all of the hoopla surrounding our two rookie tackles, our offensive line finished the regular season ranked 27th in the league, according to PFF.

That means that we're going to have to depend on help from our tight ends and running backs to chip in, and with our best blocking TE Will Dissly out and K9's horrid blocking ability, it's going to be a challenge to keep Geno clean.

I'd like to see us use Dee Jay Dallas more in this game than we normally would. If it's true that K9 excels under conditions that entails good footing for his cutback style of running, today might not be the best of circumstances for him. Dallas is a little more of a straight ahead runner, and he's a lot better blocker.

I think defensive pass rushers suffer greatly when they can’t push off . Pete alluded to it after Munich . Averaging 5 sacks and 10 pressures over 4 games then 1 pressure although Brady held the ball 2.75 seconds .

Bosa can bull rush Lucas into a new time zone but not spinning his wheels . I think a mudhole is advantage offense . By that I mean less disadvantage . A receiver knows where he’s going but a db has to react and might fall . I don’t like a bad field with Walkers extreme lateral quickness . Hopefully he learned something in Munich . Dee Jay might need more touches with his north south style . We had neither he nor Walker last go around . Both QBs starting first playoff game . Not sure how much passing there will be with the forecast but we have a slight edge with Genos tight spiral and strong arm . Just don’t throw a pick to open the game please . We quietly have a return game which can be huge in foul weather or anytime . DK needs to step up .
No prediction. Too many variables. I think we will hang around and have a chance .

[NorthHawk]

IF Dee Jay plays.

[RiverDog]

I think a mudhole is advantage offense.

A mudhole is not an advantage for the offense. Most games involving inclement weather results in a low scoring game. That's why it's an equalizer, because a low scoring game is always going to be a close game.

[jshawaii22]

This morning (6 days after the Rams game) the account of one unbiased Adam Schefter of ESPN (and, of course, the other national media that picked it up) decided to blast the officiating in the Rams/Seahawks game that supposedly was so blatant that it decided the game for the Seahawks. Wow. 6 days after the game and on the morning of a playoff game, Adam has decided to make it impossible for the Seahawks today?
First of all, I doubt more then 5% of the country actually saw the game and 4% of those were in Seattle. The rest of the country saw other games. If you look at the coverage map of the game, it is so small that it's almost non-existent, so who exactly came up with these 'facts'?
All the complaints centered around JUDGEMENT calls, not factual penalties, but to the Schefter, his opinion is the Rams should of won the game.

Simply put, I would expect at least 3 or more bad penalties against the Seahawks (are you listening #14?) for judgement calls of unsportsmanlike, PI, D-Holding and O-Holding that are not subject to any review. Mark it down, the Refs have been told to FAVOR the 49ers (like they need it?) --

On another note, the NFL pre-game show just showed the Levi's stadium, and no rain, no big wind and the field looks in good shape. Geno was on the field throwing. Suppose to have 2-3 hours before the bad weather comes.

[RiverDog]

This morning (6 days after the Rams game) the account of one unbiased Adam Schefter of ESPN (and, of course, the other national media that picked it up) decided to blast the officiating in the Rams/Seahawks game that supposedly was so blatant that it decided the game for the Seahawks. Wow. 6 days after the game and on the morning of a playoff game, Adam has decided to make it impossible for the Seahawks today?
First of all, I doubt more then 5% of the country actually saw the game and 4% of those were in Seattle. The rest of the country saw other games. If you look at the coverage map of the game, it is so small that it's almost non-existent, so who exactly came up with these 'facts'?
All the complaints centered around JUDGEMENT calls, not factual penalties, but to the Schefter, his opinion is the Rams should of won the game.

Simply put, I would expect at least 3 or more bad penalties against the Seahawks (are you listening #14?) for judgement calls of unsportsmanlike, PI, D-Holding and O-Holding that are not subject to any review. Mark it down, the Refs have been told to FAVOR the 49ers (like they need it?) --

I tend to agree. I watched the game and read the article. Although I do agree that the majority of penalties broke our way, especially considering the game situation, I don't think it rose to the level that the article claims it did. And as you pointed out, there's no way anyone can determine if it was or wasn't the worst officiated game of the season.

On another note, the NFL pre-game show just showed the Levi's stadium, and no rain, no big wind and the field looks in good shape. Geno was on the field throwing. Suppose to have 2-3 hours before the bad weather comes.

My weather app shows the following for Santa Clara from 2pm-5pm:

60 degrees, rain showers, 64-78% chance of precipitation, winds 8-9 mph.

It's going to be wet, but the wind shouldn't be a huge factor. And 60 degree wind and rain would be a blessing if you're playing the game in Green Bay or Buffalo.