Why to take and not take a qb

[Hawktawk]

Pete consistently said Geno was in the lead from the moment TC started . Pete seemed to return to the always compete mantra but also gave Geno his due weekly . The rest I really don’t know what kind of plan you want . Top ten qb for 3.5 million . 2nd round backup for peanuts . Hit the mother lode perfectly timing the trade of Wilson . Yeah no plan . I’m certain I can dig up comments from many on this forum saying Lock should be starting . Most . We had no plan ?

Denver . That’s no plan . Az. You’re silly criticizing Pete here . Sound like a sour grapes .

[obiken]

It was clear from Day one AFTER we resigned Geno, after it was apparent that we weren't going to be bringing in Jimmy G., Mayfield, and after it became apparent that we weren't drafting a QB. In fact, Pete didn't even say that Geno had the edge over Lock until minicamp in June after the roster had been determined.

River, there is going to be one Franchise Qb in this draft, do you trust Pete to find that guy, I do not, not in million years. I would rather get a Jalen Carter outta GA to plug the hole at DT. Next year thats a different drill their will be 2 or 3 at least.

[RiverDog]

It was clear from Day one AFTER we resigned Geno, after it was apparent that we weren't going to be bringing in Jimmy G., Mayfield, and after it became apparent that we weren't drafting a QB. In fact, Pete didn't even say that Geno had the edge over Lock until minicamp in June after the roster had been determined.

River, there is going to be one Franchise Qb in this draft, do you trust Pete to find that guy, I do not, not in million years. I would rather get a Jalen Carter outta GA to plug the hole at DT. Next year thats a different drill their will be 2 or 3 at least.

Actually, I do, at least as it applies to John Schneider. We were all over both Mahomes and Allen prior to the draft and we selected Russell Wilson, so yes, I have sufficient confidence in this regime to find a quarterback if one is out there.

But I wouldn't complain of we took Jalen Carter, either.

[Stream Hawk]

I’d also rather us shoot for tough af Dline over qb with Denver’s gift pick. Watching Jalen Carter tonight and haven’t been overly impressed. He was getting overwhelmed by OSU center and double teams.

Would love for Hawks to have a savage DLine asap.

[RiverDog]

I’d also rather us shoot for tough af Dline over qb with Denver’s gift pick. Watching Jalen Carter tonight and haven’t been overly impressed. He was getting overwhelmed by OSU center and double teams.

Would love for Hawks to have a savage DLine asap.

I have the same impression about Carter. IMO his stock has taken a dip tonight.

[NorthHawk]

With a top 5 pick, people hope that they would be a difference maker.
When we took Cortez Kennedy, he was that, but he dominated all year at Miami.
Carter doesn't do that. He has some great play at times but tends to disappear at times as well.
I think he will be a good player but surrounded by other players that don't take the pressure off of him, will he be that play in and play out dominating DL that we expect from a top 5 draft pick?
Quinnen Williams is just now starting to really shine as a player and he dominated in College. He now has good players around him and it's taken him a few years to adapt and improve. I would
expect a slower development curve with Carter and maybe a lower ceiling, too.

So it's really about projection at the next level. It may be that he's a building block that we can build around but we have to have patience.
Then again, he might be gone by the time we make our selection.

[TriCitySam]

I’m not a draft guru . Is there a great safety ? I think we have to have better play there too.

I’ll have to take a look at these QBs . Geno in the past 3 games , especially the last 2 has raised some questions about whether he’s regressing . He’s had some bad luck with a few calls but every metric is down . The line really isn’t worth a damn pass blocking at this point . Lucas is hurt now . Diss out . We will see about Lockett .
I want to see some more of Geno playing sharp and getting early scores . He needs it . Pete does . Maybe 7-10 exceeded expectations but when you’re 6-3 it don’t cut it for Pete or Geno or anyone . Lots on the line here . Unanswered questions .


Does anyone think Drew Lock has potential or just a waste of a roster spot ? Truly curious the opinions .

There doesn't appear to be a blue chip safety. Antonio Johnson and Brian Branch are the two names you normally hear, and they are generally thought to be late first, early 2nd guys.

[Hawktawk]

Thanks TCS. I think our biggest problem is the front 7 and interior O line . We just got so spoiled with Kam and ET erasing mistakes .

[RiverDog]

Thanks TCS. I think our biggest problem is the front 7 and interior O line . We just got so spoiled with Kam and ET erasing mistakes .

Safeties don't generally go in the top 10. Even ET was a #13 overall if my memory still serves me right. If we have our eye on a safety, it would be wise to wait until the 2nd round.

[NorthHawk]

I think Eric Berry went around the 6th or so pick to KC.
Normally Safeties go in the late 1st or early 2nd rounds except for those considered difference makers like Berry and ET.
Even Polamalu went in the middle of the first round if I remember correctly. A lot of it depends on the year and how much talent
is rated high 1st round.

[Old but Slow]

There are positions that do not get much first round consideration. Safety, guard, and tight end come to mind. That said, this draft has a number of promising safeties in the 2d through 4th rounds.

[RiverDog]

I think Eric Berry went around the 6th or so pick to KC.
Normally Safeties go in the late 1st or early 2nd rounds except for those considered difference makers like Berry and ET.
Even Polamalu went in the middle of the first round if I remember correctly. A lot of it depends on the year and how much talent
is rated high 1st round.

You're right about Eric Berry. I remember having a good discussion about him back in the old PI forum as there were a number of people that wanted to take him with our #6 overall that we eventually used on Russell Okung. KC took Berry just ahead of us with the #5 overall.

[RiverDog]

There are positions that do not get much first round consideration. Safety, guard, and tight end come to mind. That said, this draft has a number of promising safeties in the 2d through 4th rounds.

Running backs generally don't go top 10, either. There's been some, like Ladanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Jamal Lewis, Zeke Elliot, and a few others, but not as many as other positions. It's one of the reasons why I don't like seeing us burn top draft picks on running backs.

[govandals]

You're right about Eric Berry. I remember having a good discussion about him back in the old PI forum as there were a number of people that wanted to take him with our #6 overall that we eventually used on Russell Okung. KC took Berry just ahead of us with the #5 overall.

I remember that draft well. A lot of mocks had us getting Berry at 6 and Trent Williams at 14. Washington blew that up when they took Williams at 4. Then Berry went 5. Williams at 4 was a surprise and Okung "fell" to us at 6. Okung was widely considered the best tackle in the draft. I'd say Washington knew what they were doing.

[RiverDog]

You're right about Eric Berry. I remember having a good discussion about him back in the old PI forum as there were a number of people that wanted to take him with our #6 overall that we eventually used on Russell Okung. KC took Berry just ahead of us with the #5 overall.

I remember that draft well. A lot of mocks had us getting Berry at 6 and Trent Williams at 14. Washington blew that up when they took Williams at 4. Then Berry went 5. Williams at 4 was a surprise and Okung "fell" to us at 6. Okung was widely considered the best tackle in the draft. I'd say Washington knew what they were doing.

Yeah, Pete got dealt a great hand in his first draft, thanks to one of the better moves that Tim Ruskell made in the previous draft, ironically with the Broncos as our dance partner. If the plan was to take Berry at #6, the Chiefs did us a helluva favor as the one we got at #13, Earl Thomas, was quite a bit better selection anyway.

Okung was beset with injuries, something that wasn't apparent in his college career, so it's a little difficult to second guess that Williams was the best selection with what was known at the time.

[NorthHawk]

Injuries are just the luck of the draw. How many times did Okung get rolled onto by his own team mate?
ET fit what we wanted to do much better than Berry, but Berry was considered the better Safety from a non specific type of Defense point of view.

[Hawktawk]

Injuries are just the luck of the draw. How many times did Okung get rolled onto by his own team mate?
ET fit what we wanted to do much better than Berry, but Berry was considered the better Safety from a non specific type of Defense point of view.

This ^ injuries do not reflect on the quality of the pick . Okung was a very good Tackle. In 2013 it seems everyone on that line missed time .

Kind of hard to argue with ET . Seems we went and won a super bowl and Berry didn’t . I recall some big hitting safety out of USC in that draft and lots of people were speculating Pete would take him over either Berry or Thomas . Can’t remember the name .
In hindsight we had the right coach and GM and they acquired enough talent to win a lot of games .

[NorthHawk]

Taylor Mays from USC. He was miffed that his College coach didn't take him in any round.

[Hawktawk]

Taylor Mays from USC. He was miffed that his College coach didn't take him in any round.

Yeah good one . I recall his public grievance about being double crossed . I think he had a cup of coffee in the league .

[RiverDog]

Okung once sprained his ankle while huddling up. The guy was a health ward MVP. But there was nothing in his college career that would have given a team any indication that he was going to be so injury prone. I don't think he missed a start in something like 48 straight games for Okie State.

As far as Mays was concerned, he screwed himself somewhat in that the perception was that he didn't work hard enough to improve his game, which dropped him out of the first round. We only had two chances to draft him as he was taken in the middle of the 2nd round, and we didn't have a 2nd round pick that year. Pete obviously knew what he was doing when he took Earl instead. And HT is right, the guy did have a bit of an air of entitlement around him.

[NorthHawk]

Okung once sprained his ankle while huddling up. The guy was a health ward MVP. But there was nothing in his college career that would have given a team any indication that he was going to be so injury prone. I don't think he missed a start in something like 48 straight games for Okie State.

As far as Mays was concerned, he screwed himself somewhat in that the perception was that he didn't work hard enough to improve his game, which dropped him out of the first round. We only had two chances to draft him as he was taken in the middle of the 2nd round, and we didn't have a 2nd round pick that year. Pete obviously knew what he was doing when he took Earl instead. And HT is right, the guy did have a bit of an air of entitlement around him.

He was an impressionable kid who was always told how great he was and that he was a sure fire 1st round pick.
At that stage of their personal development, many, if not most would have some sense of entitlement and expectation. The constant drum beat of "you're great" has to have an effect on a young mind.

[I-5]

Sorry I've been out busy for a while ,and haven't read through the thread, but what do people think of the Niners getting quality play out of Mr Irrelevant? They have built a great offense around him, but it's a good argument for why maybe you wouldn't need to spend top draft capital on a QB if you get the other parts of the unit better. If I'm JS, I would keep drafting quality linemen on both sides of the ball. It's all about dominating the trenches for me.

[mykc14]

Sorry I've been out busy for a while ,and haven't read through the thread, but what do people think of the Niners getting quality play out of Mr Irrelevant? They have built a great offense around him, but it's a good argument for why maybe you wouldn't need to spend top draft capital on a QB if you get the other parts of the unit better. If I'm JS, I would keep drafting quality linemen on both sides of the ball. It's all about dominating the trenches for me.

If you have the talent it can work, but remember they have multiple high first round picks on their defense, especially defensive line. Since 2016 they have had 5 picks in the top ten and 9 total first round picks. The Seahawks on the other hand have had 5 TOTAL picks during that time 1 in the top 10.

Niners picks since 2016: 2, 3, 3, 7, 914, 25, 28, 31

Hawks picks since 2016: 9, 27, 27, 29, 31

And that doesn't even count two great draft picks by the Niners (Kittle and Debo)

The Niners have a huge talent advantage and a part of that is that they've had the opportunity to draft game changing talent. I don't think you can plug Mr. Irrelevant into many teams and have the same result.

[Hawktawk]

He is leading the nfl in most statistical categories since starting 5 weeks ago . You can’t plug a potted plant in and expect good results no matter what the roster . Yeah he has a great roster and McCaffrey has had a huge impact . More than I expected .
But Brock can play quite well . Nobody’s throwing the ball for him, reading the field , avoiding danger . I said it after he played half a game in relief . He’s a gamer , a stud . Intelligent . Confident . He’s gonna be a problem in the division. Imo .

An excellent reason to look somewhere besides top 5 for a qb

[RiverDog]

Sorry I've been out busy for a while ,and haven't read through the thread, but what do people think of the Niners getting quality play out of Mr Irrelevant? They have built a great offense around him, but it's a good argument for why maybe you wouldn't need to spend top draft capital on a QB if you get the other parts of the unit better. If I'm JS, I would keep drafting quality linemen on both sides of the ball. It's all about dominating the trenches for me.

Glad to see you poke your head back in here. It's always a concern when a long term poster suddenly disappears.

First of all, Purdy has started all of 5 games. Let's wait a bit longer before we break out the anointing oil. He was inserted into the best situation imaginable. That's not to take anything away from him, only that if he were going to succeed anywhere, the Niners would be the most likely team.

Secondly, you can find great players at all positions in the lower rounds. It doesn't justify bypassing a player that has Pro Bowl written all over them.

[I-5]

I agree with you both, mykc14 and HT. Niners have built a superior roster, partially thanks to a high number of Top 10 draft picks. But HT is also right, Purdy is no potted plant. He's playing the position with skill and flair, despite being Mr Irrelevant. Even Shanahan is surprised.

Riv, I love the annointing term....did I annoint him? I'm not aware of it. I'm simply saying maybe you don't need to spend TOP draft capital on a QB and still get decent production....IF you build the rest of the team. Purdy is no savior, nor does he need to be. Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell had pro bowl written all over them. The truth is, it's always a bit of a crap shoot, but I'm more inclined to value blue chip linemen and CB's over most positions when it comes to draft capital.

[mykc14]

He is leading the nfl in most statistical categories since starting 5 weeks ago . You can’t plug a potted plant in and expect good results no matter what the roster . Yeah he has a great roster and McCaffrey has had a huge impact . More than I expected .
But Brock can play quite well . Nobody’s throwing the ball for him, reading the field , avoiding danger . I said it after he played half a game in relief . He’s a gamer , a stud . Intelligent . Confident . He’s gonna be a problem in the division. Imo .

An excellent reason to look somewhere besides top 5 for a qb

He is playing well, there is no doubt, but his success (with an extremely small sample size) shouldn't be a reason that you look somewhere besides QB at number 5. You can pick any position and you will find outliers that were drafted late in the draft who produced. Look at ADB- why even waste a draft pick at all when you can just pick up an undrafted guy like ADB? If you really like a QB at #5 you take him. If you resign Geno and you love a QB and he's there at #5 you take him. If you love a QB at all and you can trade up and take him- you do it. What you don't do is just draft the best available QB at #5 because you need one.

[Aseahawkfan]

We'll see how Purdy does in the playoffs. This is where the wheat gets separated from the chaff.

[I-5]

We'll see how Purdy does in the playoffs. This is where the wheat gets separated from the chaff.

Yep. This will be a test for him, not just playing against us, but managing expectations around him.

[Hawktawk]

Just scary you know . I actually like the looks of the qb room quite a bit right now . We have a guy in Lock who is a physical stud with possibly more arm talent then Geno , taller at 6’4”

He’s got 24 starts already and he’s the same age as Stetson Bennett . Hes extremely mobile , a physical runner with a 5ypc average .

He’s on a staff so qb friendly it made Geno smith a pro bowl record setting playoff QB, something I thought might happen but not many others . I’ve heard Locks game described as “ Geno 5 years ago “
Well?

I’m sure I’ll hear about Tavares Jackson but Pete Carroll has the Midas touch with quarterbacks in college and the pros .

Maybe everyone is looking at this shiny top 5 lottery ticket qb we gotta have that we didn’t need at all to win a Lombardi before .

I’m interested in what Pete has in mind and I’ll trust it no matter what they decide . I just keep hearing Pete talk about Drew Lock . He said 6 weeks ago he doesn’t want him coming in for the wrong reasons but he would be great if he had to

“ swag moments in practice “


Maybe a hedge if Geno gets some offer for 35 a year over 3 years ? Then you franchise him or let him walk .

Not sure how Geno would feel about being tagged out of his payday . Maybe not good . Love him and let him go get paid . Always a great Seahawk .

Then Drew goes to the one hole and you take a good prospect at the position . Who knows ? I’d love Geno back but I’m fine with the guy in development too . He’s a lot closer then most anyone in this draft .

[Hawktawk]

We'll see how Purdy does in the playoffs. This is where the wheat gets separated from the chaff.

Geno too . Everyone playing . We need a smoker out of Geno

[NorthHawk]

Maybe a hedge if Geno gets some offer for 35 a year over 3 years ? Then you franchise him or let him walk .

A FT for Geno would be around $31M for 1 year-or maybe more. That would hit the Cap hard, so no good FAs
for the Defense could be afforded.
It’s better to let him test the market and if it’s manageable then step in, but if a team offers something bigger
then let him go. We’ll see how good Lock is for a year. Keep in mind we’re a few years away from being a serious contender for a championship provided they don’t blow these next couple of drafts.

[Old but Slow]

If Geno was as good in the red zone as he is between the 20s, I could see him getting $30m, but as he is I would not offer more than $22 to $25m.

Why take a QB at #5? Partly because it is smart, but also because there is no better alternative. Carter? Not for me. Anderson? Nope. Probably the next best athlete would be Robinson (RB) or Mayer (TE), but we are not likely to take either position that high.

Now reality. In draft terms, is still early. The Combine will have a big impact, as will the all-star games, and what we are seeing as the likely picks now, may change drastically. There's many a slip tween the cup and lip.

[Hawktawk]

If Geno was as good in the red zone as he is between the 20s, I could see him getting $30m, but as he is I would not offer more than $22 to $25m.

Why take a QB at #5? Partly because it is smart, but also because there is no better alternative. Carter? Not for me. Anderson? Nope. Probably the next best athlete would be Robinson (RB) or Mayer (TE), but we are not likely to take either position that high.

Now reality. In draft terms, is still early. The Combine will have a big impact, as will the all-star games, and what we are seeing as the likely picks now, may change drastically. There's many a slip tween the cup and lip.

Geno threw 30 TDs . They were just agressive longer throws . I’m not aware of our red zone numbers . I know not great . Other than Walker and Lockett the offense has been off Really for ever since the raiders game .
You may know more than I but I think in a qb starved league a mobile 30 TD 4 k yard guy that took every snap is gonna have a market . It’s easy to rag on Geno down the stretch but I bet he’s approaching a Seahawks record for sacks, has really been hit quite a bit . I don’t expect a hometown discount from him unless you are all right and nobody’s interested . I think some teams will be .

[Aseahawkfan]

Geno too . Everyone playing . We need a smoker out of Geno

We need a great performance from our tackles. That vicious beast Bosa is coming for Geno. Someone needs to stop him.

[I-5]

I also think Pete considers Lock a top prospect, another reason if he decides not to go after a QB in the draft. Lock has all the tools to be a prototypical NFL starting QB. His path looks very similar to Geno's as HT pointed out. His arm talent looks even better than Geno's. From what I've seen and hear, where he needs the most growth is the mental aspect, presnap. That's Geno's edge.

[Old but Slow]

Part of the decision is salary cap. Draft picks receive a beginning salary based on draft slot regardless of position. A common salary level for starting QBs in the league is $30m plus. Only one defensive lineman makes over $30m: Aaron Donald. If you get a bust at QB you end up paying a minimal QB salary, while a bust of a DT will end up earning a fairly high salary for his position. This would not be a great consideration, except in this draft there seems to be some uncertainty about bust potential, especially with Carter, Young and Richardson.

In other words, a team can acquire a high quality free agent DT (or two) for the amount you would pay for a starting QB.

O.K., I'm no economist, but maybe someone can straighten me out.

[NorthHawk]

I also think Pete considers Lock a top prospect, another reason if he decides not to go after a QB in the draft. Lock has all the tools to be a prototypical NFL starting QB. His path looks very similar to Geno's as HT pointed out. His arm talent looks even better than Geno's. From what I've seen and hear, where he needs the most growth is the mental aspect, presnap. That's Geno's edge.

What do you consider “arm talent”?
I think it means not only a strong arm, but the ability to throw a receiver open, provide enough ‘touch’, be able to throw
a good deep ball, good timing to hit receivers in stride, and more.
With Locks TD/INT ratio, it makes me wonder what part of the above is missing. If it’s better than Geno then why hasn’t he
been given a chance to prove himself?
He’s seen enough of this league to develop without playing, so it sounds like he’s just not good enough. And if that is the case
then it’s time to get a Franchise type QB for the next decade and maybe beyond.

[jshawaii22]

I’d also rather us shoot for tough af Dline over qb with Denver’s gift pick. Watching Jalen Carter tonight and haven’t been overly impressed. He was getting overwhelmed by OSU center and double teams.

Would love for Hawks to have a savage DLine asap.

THIS!!!! -- although he played a lot better in the championship game... you know the game that TCU sent a different team to then the one that beat Michigan.

Too bad none of the WC QBs went pro this year. UDub, O and USC all have good pro potential looking QB's playing that I'd rather take a chance on. Earlier this year there were supposed to be a whole bunch of QB's coming out, but now the talking heads won't even commit to ONE being pro ready. Ouch! Maybe if Stroud is available at #5, but I doubt it. Chicago will trade down to a team that will draft Alabama's QB and Indy will take OSU's at #4.
However, I don't like the idea of paying Geno 60million over 2 years either, so maybe go to Lock. He is signed for next year and take a flyer on a QB in the 3rd or later round.

[Old but Slow]

While I am pulling strongly to take a QB first, if we miss out and the top 4 are taken, there are some interesting possibilities later. Thompson-Robinson from UCLA will probably not make the first round, but may be a player. Throws a nice ball and is an athlete. Stetson Bennett, though smaller than ideal, Tanner McKee and Henden Hooker could be around in the 2d or 3d round. By the end of the draft there could be 15 or so quarterbacks taken, and that is not to be ignored as we can currently see with Mr Irreverent down in Santa Clara.