Denver Pick Watch

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Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Sun Jan 01, 2023 11:21 am

Obviously, there's the Chiefs-Broncos game that's of primary interest to Hawk fans, but others to keep an eye on include:

Bears vs. Lions. If the Bears win this one, they'll tie the Broncos with a 4-12 record, assuming that the Donkeys lose.

Texans vs. Jags. It's a long shot that would include the Texans winning their last two and the Broncos losing their final games, but there's a chance that the Denver pick could end up being the #1 overall. We've never had a #1 overall in franchise history.

Cards vs. Dirty Birds. Arizona has an identical 4-11 record to that of the Broncos, the Falcons are 5-10. Gotta root for the Cards to win this one.

Colts vs. Giants. The Colts are 4-10-1, a half game behind Donkeys (or a half game ahead, depending on your POV)

Rams vs. Chargers. The Rams are 5-10.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby NorthHawk » Sun Jan 01, 2023 2:16 pm

Broncos continued to shoot themselves in the foot much to our benefit, but they looked better this game on Offense at times.
I hope they don’t get that sorted out until next year.
Didn’t the Cards beat the Broncos giving that pick a better slot in the event of an equal record ?
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Sun Jan 01, 2023 2:32 pm

NorthHawk wrote:Broncos continued to shoot themselves in the foot much to our benefit, but they looked better this game on Offense at times.
I hope they don’t get that sorted out until next year.
Didn’t the Cards beat the Broncos giving that pick a better slot in the event of an equal record ?


Other way around. The Broncos beat the Cards, and both teams are now 4-12. But I guess I don't understand why Denver has the higher slot as the first tiebreaker is supposed to be the team with the worst head-to-head record gets the higher pick, but the Broncos are listed as having the higher slot.

Edit: I answered my own question. Head-to-head only comes into play between two teams within the same division. The first tiebreaker is strength of schedule, and the Broncos have a worse SOS (.480) than the Cards (.512), so the Donkey's pick gets the tiebreaker. But that SOS can change easily.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Sun Jan 01, 2023 3:24 pm

The Donkeys lost again, dropping them to 4-12, but all of the other early games didn't break our way. The Rams are playing the Chargers in the afternoon slot.

According to my calculations, the worst we can do is the #6 overall, the highest #2. The Texans' loss to the Jags means we won't be picking #1. The Colts, Bears, Cards, and Rams could all finish in a higher slot.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby Aseahawkfan » Sun Jan 01, 2023 3:42 pm

I was so happy Russ didn't pull one of his comebacks. That score was way too close. Another Bronco loss by less than a TD. Just one more good Charger game next week and then we see exactly where we are.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Sun Jan 01, 2023 3:57 pm

Aseahawkfan wrote:I was so happy Russ didn't pull one of his comebacks. That score was way too close. Another Bronco loss by less than a TD. Just one more good Charger game next week and then we see exactly where we are.


The Chargers have already clinched a spot in the playoffs, won't have much to play for, and will likely rest their starters in advance of the playoffs so I'm expecting a Donkey's win.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby Aseahawkfan » Sun Jan 01, 2023 4:37 pm

RiverDog wrote:The Chargers have already clinched a spot in the playoffs, won't have much to play for, and will likely rest their starters in advance of the playoffs so I'm expecting a Donkey's win.


That one win could drop us a bunch of a places.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Sun Jan 01, 2023 5:21 pm

RiverDog wrote:The Chargers have already clinched a spot in the playoffs, won't have much to play for, and will likely rest their starters in advance of the playoffs so I'm expecting a Donkey's win.


Aseahawkfan wrote:That one win could drop us a bunch of a places.


Not really. We're currently sitting in the 3 spot and the worst we can do is #6.

If the Broncos lose and the Bears win, we could end up in the 2 spot depending on how the strength of schedule shakes out. The Bears are playing at home vs. the Vikings, who looked like crap against the Packers today.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby Aseahawkfan » Sun Jan 01, 2023 5:51 pm

RiverDog wrote:Not really. We're currently sitting in the 3 spot and the worst we can do is #6.

If the Broncos lose and the Bears win, we could end up in the 2 spot depending on how the strength of schedule shakes out. The Bears are playing at home vs. the Vikings, who looked like crap against the Packers today.


3rd to 6th at the top is a big drop. I'd rather have the 3rd. When you're drafting that high, even a few spots is worth a lot.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Sun Jan 01, 2023 7:10 pm

RiverDog wrote:Not really. We're currently sitting in the 3 spot and the worst we can do is #6.

If the Broncos lose and the Bears win, we could end up in the 2 spot depending on how the strength of schedule shakes out. The Bears are playing at home vs. the Vikings, who looked like crap against the Packers today.


Aseahawkfan wrote:3rd to 6th at the top is a big drop. I'd rather have the 3rd. When you're drafting that high, even a few spots is worth a lot.


I agreed that a few spots mean a lot when they're in the top 10. Look what the Niners gave up just to move up 6 spots.

After watching a little bit of CFB, I'm leaning more towards hanging a big "for sale" sign on that Denver pick unless we can get Stroud.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby Old but Slow » Sun Jan 01, 2023 7:46 pm

My view is that there are 3 quarterbacks who I would support for our first pick. There is no defensive player who should be in the top 5. If we are unable to get one of the 3 QBs, then I would trade down if a trade partner is available. I want a QB and a 2d round center, and the rest of the draft can be defense. And somehow work that with "best player available".
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby Agent 86 » Sun Jan 01, 2023 11:20 pm

RiverDog wrote:The Chargers have already clinched a spot in the playoffs, won't have much to play for, and will likely rest their starters in advance of the playoffs so I'm expecting a Donkey's win.


Riv, I will say this. With the Ravens loss, the Chargers moved up into the #5 slot which means if they win next week, they will play the #4 seed (Titans or Jags). Lose and they will play one of the Bills, Chiefs, or Bengals. So I would say they should be motivated to win to get a much better 1st round matchup.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby Aseahawkfan » Mon Jan 02, 2023 12:43 am

Agent 86 wrote:Riv, I will say this. With the Ravens loss, the Chargers moved up into the #5 slot which means if they win next week, they will play the #4 seed (Titans or Jags). Lose and they will play one of the Bills, Chiefs, or Bengals. So I would say they should be motivated to win to get a much better 1st round matchup.


That is good news.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jan 02, 2023 4:02 am

RiverDog wrote:The Chargers have already clinched a spot in the playoffs, won't have much to play for, and will likely rest their starters in advance of the playoffs so I'm expecting a Donkey's win.


Agent 86 wrote:Riv, I will say this. With the Ravens loss, the Chargers moved up into the #5 slot which means if they win next week, they will play the #4 seed (Titans or Jags). Lose and they will play one of the Bills, Chiefs, or Bengals. So I would say they should be motivated to win to get a much better 1st round matchup.


You make a good point. However, it's been my impression that unless teams have a chance to either get a first-round bye or a division championship, which guarantees them a home game, that they don't lay it all on the line in the last game of the season. The thinking is that eventually they're going to have to play one of those top teams anyway, which makes that higher seed not as valuable and doesn't negate the advantage of resting some players.

But we'll see. Every coach plays it differently.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby c_hawkbob » Mon Jan 02, 2023 9:32 am

Evidently we're locked in to the top 5 with yesterday's results:

Draft Pick Status: The Seahawks currently pick at 3rd overall and thanks to some mostly favorable results, Denver’s first-rounder is guaranteed to be no lower than 5th overall. It can be as high as 2nd if the Broncos lose and the Chicago Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings.


https://www.fieldgulls.com/2023/1/2/235 ... qNnKHYldN0
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jan 02, 2023 10:40 am

Hopefully it ends up as the 3rd pick, but 5th isn't a bad spot, either.
I wonder if Brooks injury will put the spotlight on a LB later in the 1st or 2nd rounds? It's said to be a significant injury so if it's ACL and MCL it may take most of next season to get back into playing condition.
I'm hoping it's just rest and rehab that's required.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby Hawktawk » Mon Jan 02, 2023 10:49 am

NorthHawk wrote:Hopefully it ends up as the 3rd pick, but 5th isn't a bad spot, either.
I wonder if Brooks injury will put the spotlight on a LB later in the 1st or 2nd rounds? It's said to be a significant injury so if it's ACL and MCL it may take most of next season to get back into playing condition.
I'm hoping it's just rest and rehab that's required.

Torn Acl for brooks . It sucks . I think we need linebacker help anyway .
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby Agent 86 » Mon Jan 02, 2023 11:23 am

Hawktawk wrote:Torn Acl for brooks . It sucks . I think we need linebacker help anyway .


https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/2533397/source-seahawks-brooks-tore-acl-in-win-over-jets
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jan 02, 2023 11:34 am

c_hawkbob wrote:Evidently we're locked in to the top 5 with yesterday's results:

Draft Pick Status: The Seahawks currently pick at 3rd overall and thanks to some mostly favorable results, Denver’s first-rounder is guaranteed to be no lower than 5th overall. It can be as high as 2nd if the Broncos lose and the Chicago Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings.


https://www.fieldgulls.com/2023/1/2/235 ... qNnKHYldN0

Fantastic, thanks for the info!

It must have to do with the SOS calculation. When I looked at the teams with records similar to the Broncos, I didn't bother to look into what the possible outcomes might affect the two team's SOS as it's extremely complicated.

What's odd is that they don't take into account head-to-head unless it happens to be within the division. For example, the Broncos beat the Cards, so you would think that should the two teams have an identical W/L record, that the first tiebreaker would go to the Cards. That's how they break ties for playoff seeding.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jan 02, 2023 12:22 pm

Strength of Schedule is pretty important in draft positioning and we've played a lot of bad teams this year so it's less than .500 if things haven't changed in the last couple of weeks.
There's also in Division record but that shouldn't be a factor because it's the Denver pick and none of the other teams are near the 3 - 6 range.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jan 09, 2023 11:16 am

Well, it's final. We get the 5th pick in the 2023 draft, providing that we don't trade it. And the Bears snuck in and nab the #1 overall. Here's the top 18, the rest to be determined as the playoffs are completed:

1. Chicago
2. Houston
3. Arizona
4. Indianapolis
5. Seattle (via Denver)
6. Detroit (via LA Rams)
7. Las Vegas
8. Atlanta
9. Carolina
10. Philadelphia (via New Orleans)
11. Tennessee
12. Houston (via Cleveland)
13. NY Jets
14. New England
15. Green Bay
16. Washington
17. Pittsburgh
18. Detroit
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby TriCitySam » Mon Jan 09, 2023 11:37 am

#5 and #20. Probably leaves us out of the top two D guys, but still may have an opportunity for a QB (Stroud or Willis) if we like them, along with the #2 DI in Brian Bresee and #2 Edge Myles Murphy - although I am still intrigued by Tyree Wilson. Don't know where they will go, but have confidence with 5,20,36 and 51 that we will walk away with some good talent. Would obviously like to address DL (I and Edg), LB, QB and C so we got a shot at 4 of 5.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby mykc14 » Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:59 pm

TriCitySam wrote:#5 and #20. Probably leaves us out of the top two D guys, but still may have an opportunity for a QB (Stroud or Willis) if we like them, along with the #2 DI in Brian Bresee and #2 Edge Myles Murphy - although I am still intrigued by Tyree Wilson. Don't know where they will go, but have confidence with 5,20,36 and 51 that we will walk away with some good talent. Would obviously like to address DL (I and Edg), LB, QB and C so we got a shot at 4 of 5.


Unfortunately you are probably right... Best case is Chicago trading away their pick to a QB needy team and the Texas drafting a QB. If that happens we probably luck out and get Anderson or Carter at 5 because you have to think Indy is going QB. That's my hope. If PC JS like the top 3 QB's then we are alright too because we are guaranteed one of them or the two top Defensive players. If we trade out of #5 PC and JS probably aren't high on any of the QB's left. In reality the Hawks will probably do something that nobody suspects.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jan 09, 2023 1:24 pm

I was hoping that we'd be in a position to select CJ Stroud, but with two QB needy teams in the Texans and Colts ahead of us, he's likely to be gone by the time our pick rolls around. But if we don't get Stroud, we'd damn well better get a defensive player that will have an immediate impact.

The other thing to note here is that we also have Denver's 2nd round pick, and with Miami having to forfeit their natural #1, we'll have 3 picks in the top 37 and likely 4 in the top 50 or so.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby TriCitySam » Mon Jan 09, 2023 3:20 pm

We all know there is a huge failure rate in the draft - and that goes for all 32 teams - but the hit rate in the top 5 is much improved. I looked at 2010 to 2019 (you want at least 3 years experience). Of the 50 players drafted in the top 5, 31 earned a PB at some point (62%) - but that includes Goff, Winston, Wentz and Trubisky. 18% played 3 years or less. Of the 11 QB's, only 2 were legit "franchise" QB's: Andrew Luck and Cam Newton. Of the other 9, Kyler Murray is likely the best. The remainder in addition to the 7 I've mentioned are Mariota, Darnold, Bortles and Bradford. So there is good reason to avoid a QB unless you're 100% convinced....and nothing wrong with trading back. With the failure rate, the more bites at the apple, likely the better.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jan 09, 2023 3:54 pm

TriCitySam wrote:We all know there is a huge failure rate in the draft - and that goes for all 32 teams - but the hit rate in the top 5 is much improved. I looked at 2010 to 2019 (you want at least 3 years experience). Of the 50 players drafted in the top 5, 31 earned a PB at some point (62%) - but that includes Goff, Winston, Wentz and Trubisky. 18% played 3 years or less. Of the 11 QB's, only 2 were legit "franchise" QB's: Andrew Luck and Cam Newton. Of the other 9, Kyler Murray is likely the best. The remainder in addition to the 7 I've mentioned are Mariota, Darnold, Bortles and Bradford. So there is good reason to avoid a QB unless you're 100% convinced....and nothing wrong with trading back. With the failure rate, the more bites at the apple, likely the better.


Joe Burrow was drafted #1 overall, and so far, the results have been excellent. Trevor Lawrence was also a #1 overall, and after a slow rookie season playing for a total train wreck of a team, he's starting to blossom into a promising quarterback. Josh Allen was almost a top 5 QB, selected #7 overall, and he's an MVP candidate. If we don't have enough confidence in Pete and John to do their homework and avoid the next Zach Wilson or Mitch Turbisky and select a quarterback with our #5 overall then develop them into a franchise player like the Bengals, Jags, and Bills have with their top draft picks, then I suggest that it's time we start looking for new head coach and GM.

If we were going to take a chance on selecting a quarterback in the draft, then this is the year to do it. We have 4 draft picks in the top 50-60 players, so we can afford to take a calculated risk on a quarterback as we're not condemning our franchise to another 5 years of futility if we miss. We also have a situation, assuming that we re-sign Geno, where the new quarterback won't be expected to start right away like the Chiefs were able to do with Patrick Mahomes.

For a team that is perpetually picking in the middle to top third of the draft, this opportunity doesn't come around very often. Let's not flinch just because we're afraid of failure. No guts, no glory.
Last edited by RiverDog on Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby Hawktawk » Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:09 pm

I think Goff might be making McVeigh rue his decision to dump him . Yeah they got a super bowl but Goff really came alive in the second half of this season . As TCS said only 2 legitimate franchise guys in that period , luck and Newton . Luck quit in his prime and Newton went off a cliff further then Russell . Neither won a championship . As river points out there’s some good to great young guys . But fair to point out that at one point this year Carolina had the #1 and #2 pick and neither could play

So I don’t know . Not a draft guru per se . I think the top 2 QBs and defenders are gone by 5 . I don’t see another qb worth taking at 5 . So do we want one of theses guys bad enough to trade up ?

It will be interesting . But there’s a wild card game Saturday pitting a junkyard dog castoff mutt against mr irrelevant . Someone is gonna win . Whatever we do in this draft I think a lot of GMs and coaches are gonna take a hard look at the position .
Don’t sleep on Drew Lock either . Geno tailed off late in the season but still put up enough to win a couple more if everyone did their job .
But Pete was very weird , almost uncharacteristic talking about “ the position “ . He credited the system for making quarterbacks successful . Really didn’t mention much about Geno specifically after generally praising him all year , brought up Drew again “ you guys haven’t seen much of him but we have in practice “. Just an odd exchange . Geno sounds like a guy that wants to see what he’s worth too .


Are they leaning towards letting Geno walk for his 100 million 3 year deal and going into next year with a rookie competing with Drew Lock ? He’s a fraction of the price it will cost to sign Geno . I’m not saying that’s what’s gonna happen or even if it should but it’s just a thought .
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby mykc14 » Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:11 pm

RiverDog wrote:Joe Burrow was drafted #1 overall, and so far, the results have been excellent. Trevor Lawrence was also a #1 overall, and after a slow rookie season playing for a total train wreck of a team, he's starting to blossom into a promising quarterback. Josh Allen was almost a top 5 QB, selected #7 overall, and he's an MVP candidate. If we don't have enough confidence in Pete and John to do their homework and avoid the next Zach Wilson or Mitch Turbisky and select a franchise quarterback with our #5 overall then develop them into a franchise player like the Bengals, Jags, and Bills have with their top draft picks, then I suggest that we start looking for new head coach and GM.

If we were going to take a chance on selecting a quarterback in the draft, then this is the year to do it. We have 4 draft picks in the top 50-60 players, so we can afford to take a calculated risk on a quarterback as we're not condemning our franchise to another 5 years of futility if we miss. We also have a situation, assuming that we re-sign Geno, where the new quarterback won't be expected to start right away like the Chiefs were able to do with Patrick Mahomes.

For a team that is perpetually picking in the middle to top third of the draft, this opportunity doesn't come around very often. Let's not flinch just because we're afraid of failure. No guts, no glory.



I would also add that if they like any of those QB's they need to draft them. I know we need defensive disruptors but a franchise QB is the most valuable asset in sports and, like you said, these opportunities do not come around here too often. If they don't love any of the QB's then steer clear, draft the best defensive player available, or trade back... that's why I believe that if we do end of trading back and both of the top defensive players have already been selected then PC/JS aren't high on the other QB's. IMO, a worst case scenario would be the Hawks selecting a QB and then later hearing reports that they were trying to trade back but couldn't for whatever reason.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby mykc14 » Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:16 pm

Hawktawk wrote:
So I don’t know . Not a draft guru per se . I think the top 2 QBs and defenders are gone by 5 . I don’t see another qb worth taking at 5 . So do we want one of theses guys bad enough to trade up ?

.


Who do you think the top 2 QB's are? Personally I like Stroud or Levis as my top 2. I think Bryce Young has a ton of talent but his size does worry me to the point that I don't really want him and although Richardson has all of the measurables his completion percentage is pretty concerning and his one year as a starter wasn't anything to write home about, but as we all know the draft isn't about what guys have done but instead what they are projected to do.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby Aseahawkfan » Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:19 pm

RiverDog wrote:I was hoping that we'd be in a position to select CJ Stroud, but with two QB needy teams in the Texans and Colts ahead of us, he's likely to be gone by the time our pick rolls around. But if we don't get Stroud, we'd damn well better get a defensive player that will have an immediate impact.

The other thing to note here is that we also have Denver's 2nd round pick, and with Miami having to forfeit their natural #1, we'll have 3 picks in the top 37 and likely 4 in the top 50 or so.


I'm pretty good with Geno and going heavy defense this draft focusing on D-line, LB, and strong safety.

I wouldn't mind a good guard or center too and a developmental QB if they see one they like.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:22 pm

Hawktawk wrote:I think Goff might be making McVeigh rue his decision to dump him . Yeah they got a super bowl but Goff really came alive in the second half of this season . As TCS said only 2 legitimate franchise guys in that period , luck and Newton . Luck quit in his prime and Newton went off a cliff further then Russell . Neither won a championship . As river points out there’s some good to great young guys . But fair to point out that at one point this year Carolina had the #1 and #2 pick and neither could play

So I don’t know . Not a draft guru per se . I think the top 2 QBs and defenders are gone by 5 . I don’t see another qb worth taking at 5 . So do we want one of theses guys bad enough to trade up ?

It will be interesting . But there’s a wild card game Saturday pitting a junkyard dog castoff mutt against mr irrelevant . Someone is gonna win . Whatever we do in this draft I think a lot of GMs and coaches are gonna take a hard look at the position .
Don’t sleep on Drew Lock either . Geno tailed off late in the season but still put up enough to win a couple more if everyone did their job .
But Pete was very weird , almost uncharacteristic talking about “ the position “ . He credited the system for making quarterbacks successful . Really didn’t mention much about Geno specifically after generally praising him all year , brought up Drew again “ you guys haven’t seen much of him but we have in practice “. Just an odd exchange . Geno sounds like a guy that wants to see what he’s worth too .


Are they leaning towards letting Geno walk for his 100 million 3 year deal and going into next year with a rookie competing with Drew Lock ? He’s a fraction of the price it will cost to sign Geno . I’m not saying that’s what’s gonna happen or even if it should but it’s just a thought .


You can't argue with success. McVay (note proper spelling) pushed all his chips to the center of the table, traded for Stafford, went out and brought in players like Von Miller and OBJ, and won a Lombardi. I'll gladly take the 5-12 season that the Rams went through this season if it includes a Lombardi in the one prior.

I think you're right, that both Young and Stroud will be gone before our pick. But they may not have their eyes fixed on one of those two players. They may be looking at a quarterback like Will Lewis. My point is that we shouldn't chicken out just because other teams have failed. Schneider was the one that found Russell Wilson and was all over Mahomes and Allen. If they feel confident in using that top 5 pick on a QB, we should be, too.

Any position entails a certain amount of bust risk. Personally, I wasn't very impressed with Jalen Carter, but I'm no draft scout.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:24 pm

A lot depends on what they do with Geno.
That will be determined before the draft, so if they see a good QB that requires red shirting for a year or two,
it might be a good use at 5 if they re-sign him. The other thing is if teams move up for QBs then Carter might be there.
It’s another year when the top of the draft will be interesting for us.
If we lose this week, then we will probably get a pick at 19, so that’s 4 picks in the first 50.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby mykc14 » Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:29 pm

Aseahawkfan wrote:
I'm pretty good with Geno and going heavy defense this draft focusing on D-line, LB, and strong safety.

I wouldn't mind a good guard or center too and a developmental QB if they see one they like.


I agree with this for the most part. Ideally we would get a game changing DT or EDGE player with our first pick. With 4 picks in the top 50 we should be able to get some starting quality interior OL help. Getting a game changing defensive player and a starting quality G and Center would be a fantastic use of our picks. If that game changing defensive player isn't available or PC/JS feel like they have the opportunity to draft the next Mahomes or Allen then I am all for going the QB direction. An ideal situation, if we go QB route, would be sign Geno to a 3 or so year contract while we develop this pick and then hopefully we can trade Geno after a year or two.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:30 pm

RiverDog wrote:I was hoping that we'd be in a position to select CJ Stroud, but with two QB needy teams in the Texans and Colts ahead of us, he's likely to be gone by the time our pick rolls around. But if we don't get Stroud, we'd damn well better get a defensive player that will have an immediate impact.

The other thing to note here is that we also have Denver's 2nd round pick, and with Miami having to forfeit their natural #1, we'll have 3 picks in the top 37 and likely 4 in the top 50 or so.


Aseahawkfan wrote:I'm pretty good with Geno and going heavy defense this draft focusing on D-line, LB, and strong safety.

I wouldn't mind a good guard or center too and a developmental QB if they see one they like.


Centers and guards aren't generally taken in the top 10 let alone the top 5. If we see one that we really like, then we could either trade back or gamble that they'll be there when our natural pick occurs around #20 or so.

But I agree with you about going heavy on defense, especially on the defensive line. A Nick Bosa type of player could do wonders for this defense and turn us into contenders immediately.

On a side note, keep an eye on Jalen Carter, Georgia's stud DL projected to be drafted in the top 5 in tonight's CFB National Championship. He could be a player that might be available to us at #5. I wasn't impressed with him in the semi finals, but that was just one game.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:34 pm

NorthHawk wrote:A lot depends on what they do with Geno.
That will be determined before the draft, so if they see a good QB that requires red shirting for a year or two,
it might be a good use at 5 if they re-sign him. The other thing is if teams move up for QBs then Carter might be there.
It’s another year when the top of the draft will be interesting for us.
If we lose this week, then we will probably get a pick at 19, so that’s 4 picks in the first 50.


I don't think we've ever had that many high draft picks. We've had a number of times where we've had two #1's, but to my knowledge, we've never had 4 in the top 50. Maybe Cbob or Hawktalk could correct me if I'm wrong.

It would be nice if we could stockpile one or two of those picks, say trade the #36 overall for someone's 2024 #1. Then we could be rooting for that team to lose next season like we did with the Broncos this year.
Last edited by RiverDog on Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:36 pm

The best Centers usually go in the 2nd round or third, but I’m concerned that we undervalue that position far too often.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:37 pm

It would be nice if we could stockpile one or two of those picks, say trade the #36 overall for someone's 2024 #1. Then we could be rooting for that team to lose next season like we did with the Broncos this year.


That would be an interesting turn of events, but it wouldn’t be unheard of.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:42 pm

NorthHawk wrote:The best Centers usually go in the 2nd round or third, but I’m concerned that we undervalue that position far too often.


Pete and John's strategy for guards is that they use the position as bust insurance for tackles. They did it with Carpenter, Ifedi, and Britt. And we all know how much they valued a Pro Bowl center when they traded one away with nothing more than a "Next man up!" as a plan to replace him.

But that was then. Hopefully, with the out of character emphasis on offensive tackles in the 2022 draft, they've gained a newfound respect for the OL.

We'll have two picks between #35 and #50. That would be a great place to select a center or guard. We'd likely be getting one of the top 2 or 3 at the position.
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby RiverDog » Tue Jan 10, 2023 7:20 am

I didn't watch all of the CFB game last night, but from what I did watch, I again was unimpressed with Jalen Carter. He wasn't getting off blocks on the run game, wasn't getting hardly any pressure in the passing game. He didn't look that great against Ohio State, either. Could it be that he's a beneficiary of a very good defense? He doesn't look like a top 5 pick to me.

Has anyone else watched Georgia in the CFB playoffs and came away with a different impression of Carter than I have?
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Re: Denver Pick Watch

Postby mykc14 » Tue Jan 10, 2023 8:51 am

RiverDog wrote:I didn't watch all of the CFB game last night, but from what I did watch, I again was unimpressed with Jalen Carter. He wasn't getting off blocks on the run game, wasn't getting hardly any pressure in the passing game. He didn't look that great against Ohio State, either. Could it be that he's a beneficiary of a very good defense? He doesn't look like a top 5 pick to me.

Has anyone else watched Georgia in the CFB playoffs and came away with a different impression of Carter than I have?


I have to agree. He had a few good plays, but overall I didn't see a game changing DT. He admitted he was out of shape after the Semis and apparently worked on it a bit this week, but you don't get in shape in one week. Overall Im not impressed and think we should probably steer clear of him.
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