Big night for Geno

[Hawktawk]

I think this is a real gut check for Geno . A fork in the road . He doesn’t have to win but he has to play well to keep the feel good story going . Last week was the first real downer against a shell of this defense .

I pull for him for his sake as well as ours but there is real money on the line now .

[obiken]

b

[obiken]

I think this is a real gut check for Geno . A fork in the road . He doesn’t have to win but he has to play well to keep the feel good story going . Last week was the first real downer against a shell of this defense .

I pull for him for his sake as well as ours but there is real money on the line now .

It comes down to defense HT, they just have too many weapons for a good defense to cover, little own ours.[/quote]

[RiverDog]

Wow, this doesn't look good. One first down to Lockett is the highlight of the first quarter. Geno got away with a bad pass that should have been picked then we failed to account for a blitzing linebacker that nearly resulted in a strip sack.

As I suspected, there seems to be a lot of Niners fans in attendance.

[RiverDog]

Another stupid arse personal foul on Metcalf for taunting. When will it stop?

[c_hawkbob]

too bad but yes, take the 3

[Hawktawk]

Another stupid arse personal foul on Metcalf for taunting. When will it stop?

Sure but the no call on Geno getting slammed 4 yards out of bonds was ridiculous . You may be right about DK never growing up

[RiverDog]

Another stupid arse personal foul on Metcalf for taunting. When will it stop?

Sure but the no call on Geno getting slammed 4 yards out of bonds was ridiculous . You may be right about DK never growing up

Well, Terry McCaulay thought it was a good call because contact was made in the field of play, but I agree that it could have been called. But it wasn't an egregious oversight.

Not only will Metcalf never grow up, but Pete will not even attempt to intervene.

[Aseahawkfan]

This could get real bad. I guess we'll see if our guys can mount a comeback.

Bosa is coming for Geno.

[Aseahawkfan]

Well, Terry McCaulay thought it was a good call because contact was made in the field of play, but I agree that it could have been called. But it wasn't an egregious oversight.

Not only will Metcalf never grow up, but Pete will not even attempt to intervene.

Another five years, hawktawk will be blaming everything on DK and he was the downfall of the team and the usual.

[obiken]

Another five years, hawktawk will be blaming everything on DK and he was the downfall of the team and the usual.

Thats it, your both right. Too much and not enough. You can make too much outta Metcalf's dumboness, and yet not enough.

[Aseahawkfan]

Well, wild card or bust I guess. Division is over. Geno shutdown twice by the 49ers brutal defense.

Next week KC in KC against Mahomes battling for the top seed in the division with every reason to smoke us.

[trents]

This game played out exactly as I expected. Not a lot of offense from either team.

Our defense played better than I expected but made some critical mistakes that, had they not been made, could have turned the outcome. Diggs drop of a ball that should have been an easy interception. Brooks' blown coverage on Kittle's touchdown. Homer's funble. Mistakes will be made but in a game like that, they just seem to carry more weight. To some extent, we beat ourselves. It was a game we might have won if we had played a cleaner game. I will say the defense tackled better tonight than they have in several games, however. Maybe that was because they felt they could focus on the run with Purdy at QB.

The next game with KC will not be nearly this close.

[obiken]

This game played out exactly as I expected. Not a lot of offense from either team.

Our defense played better than I expected but made some critical mistakes that, had they not been made, could have turned the outcome. Diggs drop of a ball that should have been an easy interception. Brooks' blown coverage on Kittle's touchdown. Homer's funble. Mistakes will be made but in a game like that, they just seem to carry more weight. To some extent, we beat ourselves. It was a game we might have won if we had played a cleaner game. I will say the defense tackled better tonight than they have in several games, however. Maybe that was because they felt they could focus on the run with Purdy at QB.

The next game with KC will not be nearly this close.

This was not nearly as close as the score projects. We were lucky, IF they had DS, they would have smoked us, period.

[jshawaii22]

I'm going to say this through April's Draft. We need to look at revamping the defensive front 7, starting up front. If Geno tries to go crazy on a new contract, let him go. He seems to have reached his in-game limit and teams are learning his faults and capitalizing on it. He's better then we may have realized going into the season, but not good enough to get us past the better teams. Rebuild the D with the first 4 picks and look at a QB in the 3rd or later round.

[Aseahawkfan]

I can't believe I'm the one doing this, but Geno is not the problem. No one expected Geno to be Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. Geno has been a damn fine QB this year and is very far from the reason why we're losing.

Now the defensive front seven I've been preaching about for years. The talent is not good enough right now. You want to run the ball and play great defense, you need a strong defensive line. These guys are not good. It's not coaching. The 49ers D coordinator looks awesome right now because he has a Nick Bosa anchoring his D-line who opens up opportunities for all the other guys and overloads most O-lines. We have Darrell Taylor and Nwosu anchoring our D-line. Nwosu is good, but he isn't Nick Bosa or even close. Taylor is a rotational guy at best. Boye Mafe has disappeared this year and has a long way to go to be even a rotational player. We also need backer upgrades.

I think he could use another strong safety as well. And a good interior O-line guy at center or guard.

I would like to draft a developmental QB if no stud is available.

I'm ok with Geno at 3 years 25 to 30 million a year with money to sign a good free agent or extend one of our quality players. Right now Frisco is winning with a 3rd string no name because their defense is so strong and their run game is good. Geno is better than Purdy, but out defensive front seven sucks.

[Hawktawk]

That team can absolutely win it all and if they keep that kid Purdy clean hes as accurate as anyone.

Geno had a tough night. He didn't get much help from anyone,horrible protection , got called for grounding with KW3 in the area and disrespected on a body slam out of bounds. But he was gifted a PF on a pick 6, fumbled again and threw several balls that should have been picked. Hes fallen off the last couple of weeks.
That said he was better than the goat last sunday. Not good enough to elevate the team by himself. Walker isn't much IMO. If Penny's healthy bring him back
.But without the Diggs drop and the Homer fumble at midfield we are right there. Another one score loss. What might have been.
Our next loss makes my 10-7 prediction moot. Its been an odd season.

I have zero expectations for this team going forward. for Geno. anyone. Looks like a once promising season has gone sideways, 1-4 since starting 6-3. Im for starting Geno vs KC and seeing how things play out around the league next game or so but at some point if we are realistically eliminated from the postseason might as well see what we have in Lock.
We see what we have in Geno so far. Good but not great.

[RiverDog]

This game played out exactly as I expected. Not a lot of offense from either team.

Our defense played better than I expected but made some critical mistakes that, had they not been made, could have turned the outcome. Diggs drop of a ball that should have been an easy interception. Brooks' blown coverage on Kittle's touchdown. Homer's funble. Mistakes will be made but in a game like that, they just seem to carry more weight. To some extent, we beat ourselves. It was a game we might have won if we had played a cleaner game. I will say the defense tackled better tonight than they have in several games, however. Maybe that was because they felt they could focus on the run with Purdy at QB.

The next game with KC will not be nearly this close.

Sme here. We actually got really lucky to keep the game as close as it was, with a pick 6 taken off the board by a questionable roughing the passer call and a couple of other interceptions that were dropped. The Niners defense was swarming, as good as the stats say they are.

We'll have to see how the rest of the conference does this weekend, but it's likely that we'll have to win 2 of our last 3 games to get in, which would give us a 9-8 record. The Commanders and Giants both have to play each other and tough schedule, with the Commanders having both the Niners and the Cowboys and the Giants the Eagles and Vikings. The problem is that the tie between the two keeps them a half step ahead of us. We own the tiebreaker over the surging Lions, but they have a relatively easier schedule with the Jets, Bears, and Panthers remaining.

There's also the possibility of our losing out as both the Jets and Rams could pose viable threats. Given our great start, it would be a real downer to end the season that way.

This week, we have 3 games on Saturday to entertain us, but none are relevant in our playoff push. The only NFC team involved are the Vikings, and they've virtually wrapped up their division.

[NorthHawk]

Last night just showcased the talent disparity between SF and Seattle.
We just don't have the talent to consistently compete with the better teams. Some of us have been saying that for years and others have just pointed to the win loss record as evidence it's not true but seeing what we
saw last night and previously against the Rams in the playoffs, I don't think anyone can look at this team and think we are anywhere near being a contender.
Geno did OK. He threw some real good passes but also threw some real questionable balls. I think I counted 3 passes that should have been intercepted but weren't. At some point that is going to turn around those INT's
are going to be caught. I hope we don't sign him to a long contract and move on from selecting one of the better QBs in the draft in the mistaken belief that Geno is the answer for the next 5 years. It'll bite us in the butt
if we do, I'm pretty sure. Having said that, this loss wasn't Geno's fault. We were again embarrassed along the LoS and were dominated all game long. That's the reason we lost, plain and simple and it's been a problem for
the last 5 or more years.

[trents]

And a good interior O-line guy at center or guard.

I agree. Our two young tackles looked bad against Bosa last night but have been doing pretty good against most other teams. The OLine need is at center and guard. To have a good running game you need a quality guard and tackle tandem on at least one side of the line.

Anybody have info on Brooks' injury? He didn't finish the game last night.

[RiverDog]

Last night just showcased the talent disparity between SF and Seattle.
We just don't have the talent to consistently compete with the better teams. Some of us have been saying that for years and others have just pointed to the win loss record as evidence it's not true but seeing what we
saw last night and previously against the Rams in the playoffs, I don't think anyone can look at this team and think we are anywhere near being a contender.
Geno did OK. He threw some real good passes but also threw some real questionable balls. I think I counted 3 passes that should have been intercepted but weren't. At some point that is going to turn around those INT's
are going to be caught. I hope we don't sign him to a long contract and move on from selecting one of the better QBs in the draft in the mistaken belief that Geno is the answer for the next 5 years. It'll bite us in the butt
if we do, I'm pretty sure. Having said that, this loss wasn't Geno's fault. We were again embarrassed along the LoS and were dominated all game long. That's the reason we lost, plain and simple and it's been a problem for
the last 5 or more years.

Yeah, there's a huge talent gap between us and the upper echelons of the league. Next week will involve another game against one of the top teams in the league when we travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs, although it will be a different contrast as the Chiefs have the top offense in the league.

Geno has undoubtedly been getting more careless with the ball, something that even he admitted before the game is a problem. But he didn't do much to change that paradigm last night. Once again, we were without a viable running attack that would keep defenses from pinning their ears back and getting after the QB. There aren't many quarterbacks that can thrive in an offense with such a putrid running attack.

[Hawktawk]

Brady vs 9ers 7 points. Geno 13 with no line and no run game . Considering the offense was shut out week 2 a far better performance .Part of what Geno has been suffering from is comparison to Geno first 9 games . Against that defense not horrible but not enough . As I’ve pointed out and heard repeated by Bart Scott yesterday Genos low mileage , not a lot of wear and tear from the bench . He was pointing it out to suggest Geno has more value than a 32 year old journeyman

What I wonder is if his first year getting pounded for 14 games in 8 years is starting to pile up . Overreaction Friday ? I don’t know . Mahomes threw 3 picks vs Denver and he’s pretty good .

Homers fumble at midfield as well as the underwhelming Diggs bouncing a ball off his chest . Pete called it bad football this AM. Not sure how to feel . Atlanta , Saints , Tampa , Raiders , now 9ers all down to the wire . Carolina a bit worse but still competetive .
And we’re still 7-7
Frustrating beyond belief

[NorthHawk]

This year has been a year of transition for Pete Carroll. Maybe it's an experiment on his part but let's look back at what's changed.

Offense: Gone are the Peteball Offenses of the previous decade and now we actually have something akin to a modern day version.
Defense: No more 4-3 Under. Now we are using a 3-4 for the most part.
Philosophy: It used to be "It's not how you start but how you finish". But this year he put a lot of emphasis on winning the first game and early in the season. Now we see that there doesn't seem to be much left in the tank at year end.

It's really interesting to watch.

[Hawktawk]

I don’t think we had the talent for a 3-4, we’ve played 4 good games on defense out of 14. Sadly last night was far from our worst defensively but we’ve scored 13 on the 9ers in 8 quarters .
And WTF is with Walker ? 3 carries in the first half . We ran the same number of plays as the 9ers but they had twice as many runs . We haven’t run the ball in 5 weeks .

[NorthHawk]

A big Vita Vea type is needed in the middle for a 3-4 to properly work if I understand it properly.
There is a player in the draft that could fit that profile in Siaki Ika, a DT from Baylor. 6’5 and about 360 lbs who can also move well. He’s constantly double teamed but still gets some pressure up the middle. Basically he’s a giant fireplug who can move.
I’m not sure where he’ll eventually be drafted but many big boards and mock drafts have him as an early 2nd to early 3rd pick.

[obiken]

A big Vita Vea type is needed in the middle for a 3-4 to properly work if I understand it properly.
There is a player in the draft that could fit that profile in Siaki Ika, a DT from Baylor. 6’5 and about 360 lbs who can also move well. He’s constantly double teamed but still gets some pressure up the middle. Basically he’s a giant fireplug who can move.
I’m not sure where he’ll eventually be drafted but many big boards and mock drafts have him as an early 2nd to early 3rd pick.

Or the big dude from GA. However, we have to use the Denver pick for a Qb long term. Geno is capable but not special, we have to cover ourselves IF this was an outlier year.

[Aseahawkfan]

Or the big dude from GA. However, we have to use the Denver pick for a Qb long term. Geno is capable but not special, we have to cover ourselves IF this was an outlier year.

Who do you see as a viable top 5 pick QB? You watch more college ball than a lot of us.

[NorthHawk]

Jalen Carter from Georgia is around 6-3 311. We will see how he measures up at the Combine. He may slim down like some players do to get faster and to jump higher so it might be a bit misleading.
He could be the 1st overall pick but QBs usually go ahead of DL. If he's there we could get both him and Ika for the DL with Ika in the middle and Carter on one of the edges. We would still have 2 other
picks in the top to mid half of the first 2 rounds.
But the team has to commit to one type of Defense and draft toward that scheme.

[Old but Slow]

Carter is the top DT in the draft (so far, as the combine can change things), but he is not the only good one. And, in the long run he may not be the best one after all. First, he is not another Aaron Donald. Or Vita Vea. Second, there at least 3 and very likely 4 others that will be in the first round.

It would be a great improvement to our defense and the team to draft Carter. However (you knew I was going here), there are only 2, maybe 3 QBs in the whole draft class, and the position is more important and harder to fill. I will not be unhappy if we draft Carter, but I would prefer Will Levis as the top QB in the class. Finally, if they draft Carter with their first, I hope that Anthony Richardson the QB from Florida is still there for our next pick. If we pick at around 12th with our own pick, I would consider Stroud, but not before that. Have I ever been wrong?

[Hawktawk]

So we’re bringing in generational talent Will
Levis 19 TD 10 pick injury list a mile long .
We gonna sign Geno ? Franchise him or throw this 7-6 senior record skipping his bowl game kid behind this makeshift line , young rackles , garbage interior line ? No run game ? Terrible defense . We’ve lost games scoring 23,24,32,34 points and the narrative was Geno close .
Then out of the other side of the same mouths I hear Purdy stinks and is being carried by a great defense and o line .

We need front 7 first . I’d get a beast center second .
If we get to 9 losses by week 18 start Lock .

Although I have no idea how to grade Geno when he’s asked to throw 40 times vs the 9 ers with no run game last 5 weeks . It’s remarkable we have 7 wins and a credit to Genos body of work so far .

But I think we’re nuts to blow this draft capital on a crap shoot . Get Aaron Donald .

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I say no to early round QBs. We are seeing the effects of lack of playmakers and quality depth. We just saw what happened when your top NT is out then your backup NT and starter linebacker goes out. The drop off is just too great. 2 1sts and 2 2nds is a huge advantage when trying to pluck top DL, LB, and OL talent.

I don’t have a problem with Geno’s play. He is showing that he can’t be asked to do it all. He’s not going to pull you throw without the rest of the team cleaning up their side of the street. That’s not a knock; it can be successful, but that’s why the next draft is so important.

[NorthHawk]

I get the feeling that Geno's good play is a limited event. Meaning he's going to crash back to earth as soon as maybe next year.
I wouldn't sign him to more than a 3 year contract with $50M Guaranteed but I think his offers will be less than that in FA.
If we bypass a top QB this year we will never get another chance as we have the people on board to be good enough to keep us from the top 10 but not good enough to make any noise in the playoffs.

Levis is the most pro ready at the moment and may be the first QB off the board, but as ObS said there are others that are good but they might take a year or two to catch up.
QBs are team changers. They can be either good or bad, but the real good ones are rarely found outside the top ten. Occasionally there is Brady or Wilson or Brees, but that's quite rare so it's hard to bypass a player that
could be the leader we need for the next decade in favor of short term expediency.

But we don't know where Denver's pick will end up. I think they could win 2 of their last 3 games giving them 5 wins which might put that pick in the 6 or 7 range. The options then become interesting as we could trade right
out of that spot altogether for a 1st next year plus a couple more this year or if no trade partner is interested take someone that might be expected to go in the later part of the 1st round. A lot is riding on the private workouts
and the Combine results and it's going to be interesting come draft day for us.

[Hawktawk]

I get the feeling that Geno's good play is a limited event. Meaning he's going to crash back to earth as soon as maybe next year.
I wouldn't sign him to more than a 3 year contract with $50M Guaranteed but I think his offers will be less than that in FA.
If we bypass a top QB this year we will never get another chance as we have the people on board to be good enough to keep us from the top 10 but not good enough to make any noise in the playoffs.

Levis is the most pro ready at the moment and may be the first QB off the board, but as ObS said there are others that are good but they might take a year or two to catch up.
QBs are team changers. They can be either good or bad, but the real good ones are rarely found outside the top ten. Occasionally there is Brady or Wilson or Brees, but that's quite rare so it's hard to bypass a player that
could be the leader we need for the next decade in favor of short term expediency.

But we don't know where Denver's pick will end up. I think they could win 2 of their last 3 games giving them 5 wins which might put that pick in the 6 or 7 range. The options then become interesting as we could trade right
out of that spot altogether for a 1st next year plus a couple more this year or if no trade partner is interested take someone that might be expected to go in the later part of the 1st round. A lot is riding on the private workouts
and the Combine results and it's going to be interesting come draft day for us.

The next 3 weeks are going to go a long way to determining what is going to happen to Geno . You could argue he played his worst 2 games last 2 weeks other then first time vs 9ers . He was listed with a shoulder prior to Carolina , nothing last week but his accuracy is down and also his velocity . More concerning is his decision making last 2 weeks . He admitted he was getting too aggressive .

Thursday I don’t know . He was under constant pressure . Kw3 had 3 carries in the first half . He was our only chance last 4 losses . Still without Diggs dropping a gift and Homer fumbling we had 2 extra possessions at the 50.

So I don’t know . If the Geno last 2 weeks is who were signing decide if Lock at 26 with 45 starts is a good fit for the Waldron offense before committing to him long term . Love the guy , how real he is but when you’re taking ownerships of mistakes that lost a game every week you’re a loser .


Geno has value because of who he’s been this year , top 5 in the league . If he’s become a 2 TD but pick or fumble every game and invisible down the stretch in close games he’s not going to be starting anywhere .biggest 3 weeks of his career . Biggest 3 weeks of our season .

[NorthHawk]

With an older QB who’s having a career year, it’s a big risk to make a long term commitment and not be concerned that
this season was an anomaly. Waldrons Offense is based on Shanahans which helps QBs do well, so if Waldron moves on, we could be stuck with an old QB who isn’t good in a new scheme. I think Waldron needs a couple more years as an OC before being considered a possible HC but if we have a regime change he might be the odd man out.

[c_hawkbob]

Whether Geno's play current level of is sustainable or not I don't think we pass on a franchise QB if the right one is available. Will may not be the next Josh Allen or Carson Wentz as McShay says GM's are comparing him to but then again ... he might just be. That's a roll of the dice you take if you have the chance isn't it?

[RiverDog]

Whether Geno's play current level of is sustainable or not I don't think we pass on a franchise QB if the right one is available. Will may not be the next Josh Allen or Carson Wentz as McShay says GM's are comparing him to but then again ... he might just be. That's a roll of the dice you take if you have the chance isn't it?

I agree with that. If we are confident that Levis is the real deal and we have a shot to get him without having to sell the farm to trade up, we almost have to take him. Those opportunities come along once or twice every 20 years.

[Old but Slow]

Taking a QB first does not mean we reject Geno. He offers an opportunity to let a young player to sit and learn. Many of the early pick busts were just thrown into the fire before they were ready. And, yes, we need immediate help, but we are not going to be challenging the top teams for a year or two anyway.

And, before you fall all over yourself about Carter, look at some film (or whatever you call it these days) of Mazi Smith. Or watch Calijah Kancey, who has been described as a smaller Aaron Donald, because of his quickness and strength. Carter and Smith are nose guys, while Kancey is more of a 3-technique.

Besides them there is also Bryan Bresee, Zacch Pickens (yup, 2 c's), and Siaka Ika (350-360 pounds and can move.

Some like Will Anderson as he is the top pass rusher this year, but he is about 240 pounds, and we seem to have a few guys that fit his profile, Taylor, Mafe, Irvin, Nwosu come to mind. He will be better, probably, than the guys we have, but is not as needed.

Another factor in the decision is that we have 2 firsts and 2 seconds, so there is room for a shot at a star.

[Aseahawkfan]

I don't know if you take your shot with a top 5 pick. In the past ten years or so the number of top 5 pick QBs that have done well is almost pretty small. I wouldn't mind a QB pick with a later draft pick, but a top 5 pick on a QB is one of the most risky, least rewarding picks in the draft.

In the past ten years, I think only Andrew Luck of Top 5 QB has worked out well and even he eventually retired with no ring.

Patrick Mahomes was picked 10th.

Josh Allen was picked 7th.

It seems if you draft a QB later on than the top 5, then there is no pressure and you can take time to develop him.

Let's look. Of the Top 5 QBs picked, who do you consider great?
2022: No one picked high.
2021: Trevor Lawrence number one overall, Zach Wilson number 2, Trey Lance 3
2020: Joe Burow number one overall, Tua number 5, Justin Herbert 6
2019: Daniel Jones number 6, Kyler Murray 1st overall,
2018: Sam Darnold 3rd overall, Josh Allen 7th overall, Baker Mayfield 1st overall, Josh Rosen 10th
2017: Mitchell Trubisky 2nd overall, Patrick Mahomes 10th, Desaun Watson 12th
2016: Jared Goff 1st overall, Carson Wentz 2nd overall,
2015: Jameis Winston 1st overall, Marcus Mariota 2nd overall
2014: Blake Bortles 3rd overall.

The book is out on quite a few of these guys. Some are big hits like Allen and Mahomes. It's a real crapshoot picking a high first round QB. 2020 is looking pretty good, but it will depend on how long they all last.

[Hawktawk]

Whether Geno's play current level of is sustainable or not I don't think we pass on a franchise QB if the right one is available. Will may not be the next Josh Allen or Carson Wentz as McShay says GM's are comparing him to but then again ... he might just be. That's a roll of the dice you take if you have the chance isn't it?

I agree with that. If we are confident that Levis is the real deal and we have a shot to get him without having to sell the farm to trade up, we almost have to take him. Those opportunities come along once or twice every 20 years.[/quote]

And surround him with what ? What’s the plan ? 5 games ago it looked like we had a serious playoff contender with the guys we have . I think a pro schedule is wearing down the large number of rookies starting . Geno is definitely getting hit more . It’s taking a toll.
Levis is all beat up from college ball . Skipping his bowl game to get and stay healthy .

Put him behind this line with no run game getting laid out by Nick Bosa . See how it goes .

This is a serious decision to make . As the OP states a fork in the road .

Do we try to win ? Then draft defensive and offensive line . A stud backer . A safety . Franchise Geno for about 35 if he’s too hard to agree with . All those numbers and decisions go out the door if he sucks down the stretch and if we can’t protect or run or defend it’s entirely possible we lose every game . Then what ?
To me you are wasting a pick on Levis with this roster .

[RiverDog]

I don't know if you take your shot with a top 5 pick. In the past ten years or so the number of top 5 pick QBs that have done well is almost pretty small. I wouldn't mind a QB pick with a later draft pick, but a top 5 pick on a QB is one of the most risky, least rewarding picks in the draft.

In the past ten years, I think only Andrew Luck of Top 5 QB has worked out well and even he eventually retired with no ring.

Patrick Mahomes was picked 10th.

Josh Allen was picked 7th.

It seems if you draft a QB later on than the top 5, then there is no pressure and you can take time to develop him.

Let's look. Of the Top 5 QBs picked, who do you consider great?
2022: No one picked high.
2021: Trevor Lawrence number one overall, Zach Wilson number 2, Trey Lance 3
2020: Joe Burow number one overall, Tua number 5, Justin Herbert 6
2019: Daniel Jones number 6, Kyler Murray 1st overall,
2018: Sam Darnold 3rd overall, Josh Allen 7th overall, Baker Mayfield 1st overall, Josh Rosen 10th
2017: Mitchell Trubisky 2nd overall, Patrick Mahomes 10th, Desaun Watson 12th
2016: Jared Goff 1st overall, Carson Wentz 2nd overall,
2015: Jameis Winston 1st overall, Marcus Mariota 2nd overall
2014: Blake Bortles 3rd overall.

The book is out on quite a few of these guys. Some are big hits like Allen and Mahomes. It's a real crapshoot picking a high first round QB. 2020 is looking pretty good, but it will depend on how long they all last.

As ObS said, we have two first rounders this draft, so we can afford to roll the dice on a QB. The risk/reward would seem to favor taking one.