Contenders and Pretenders

[RiverDog]

Here's my opinion:

The top teams have to be the Bills, Chiefs, Vikings, and Eagles. Personally, I think that the Niners should be in the upper tier, but their 4 losses are hard to rationalize. The Vikings have just one loss, and have a 4 game lead in the loss column, largest lead in any division. I'm also not a big believer in the Eagles, but you can't argue with their record.

Second tier includes the Hawks, Niners, Cowboys, Ravens, Titans, Fins, Jets, and Chargers.

Tier 3 would include last year's SB participants, Rams and Bengals, along with the Saints, Bucs, Giants, Pats, Packers, Broncos, Colts, Falcons, and Commanders.

The bottom tier has the Jags, Raiders, Cards, Bears, Steelers, Browns, Panthers, Texans, and Lions. There's already been one HC casualty in this group, Matt Rhule of the Panthers. Josh McDaniel with the Raiders, Lovie Smith of the Texans, and Dan Campbell of the Lions might not last the season. Cards fans are calling for Kliff Kingsbury's head. The Jags have a good shot at having the worst record in the league for 3 straight seasons, which I think would be a first.

This has been a weird season, and it's taken a long time for teams to sort themselves out. But I think we're getting close to some semblance of order, at least those in the bottom tier.

[Hawktawk]

I agree with most of this . It’s turned the league pretty much on it’s head this year . And in hindsight some of our “bad “ losses to teams like Atlanta and NO don’t look so improbable . For instance despite no defense we scored 32 and should have been 40 plus on the saints team that shut out Vegas yesterday with 5 defenders including young and Lattimore out .

We are playing as well as anyone in the conference right now in every phase . It’s a snapshot . It’s the trajectory that matters .

[RiverDog]

I agree with most of this . It’s turned the league pretty much on it’s head this year . And in hindsight some of our “bad “ losses to teams like Atlanta and NO don’t look so improbable . For instance despite no defense we scored 32 and should have been 40 plus on the saints team that shut out Vegas yesterday with 5 defenders including young and Lattimore out .

We are playing as well as anyone in the conference right now in every phase . It’s a snapshot . It’s the trajectory that matters .

Yeah, Raiders are a runaway train heading for a washed out bridge. McDaniel could be one and done gone before Turkey Day. He was brought in to help elevate Derek Carr, and it just hasn't happened.

It's extremely difficult this season to use comparative scores to figure out which team is better. A week earlier, that same Saints team that shut out the Raiders yesterday gave up 42 points to the dead from the neck up Cards.

[Hawktawk]

Lol “ dead from the neck up “ . When the 5’8 cam Newton is telling the coach to “ calm the F down “ WTf is going on? Yeah pretty spot on .
It’s a lot of inconsistent ball around the league . We haven’t been a part of that last 3 weeks against legit teams even dead from the neck up . We helped kill them now let’s bury them

[trents]

Lol “ dead from the neck up “ . When the 5’8 cam Newton is telling the coach to “ calm the F down “ WTf is going on? Yeah pretty spot on .
It’s a lot of inconsistent ball around the league . We haven’t been a part of that last 3 weeks against legit teams even dead from the neck up . We helped kill them now let’s bury them

Yes, inconsistency is the key word. But the NFL brass love it. It fits right in with their ultimate value of parity.

By the way, did you see that Vegas is picking the Cards over the Hawks by 2.5? That's a head scratcher to me but apparently Vegas doesn't yet see the Hawks' resurgence as substantive.

[NorthHawk]

People still don't believe in Seattle and I can understand why. We go lucky with some early wins but even though we are playing well of late it's hard to shake that perception and many (like me) have a feeling
that the roof could fall in at any time.

[RiverDog]

By the way, did you see that Vegas is picking the Cards over the Hawks by 2.5? That's a head scratcher to me but apparently Vegas doesn't yet see the Hawks' resurgence as substantive.

The odds are determined by betting behavior, and apparently the rest of the nation hasn't heard as much about the Hawks success as they have Russell Wilson and the Broncos' demise.

We'll see how well those odds hold up through the week as the best start rolling in. I'll be shocked if the don't come down closer to even by the time Sunday rolls around. The Cards haven't looked good at all, have lost to us once by two scores, and they don't have a true home field advantage. I've been to several Cards away games, and the crowd there and the 12's show up in droves. I'm heading to Vegas this weekend, and if the Cards are still favored by the time I get there, I'll lay a tidy sum down on us.

[NorthHawk]

Isn’t the original line set to encourage people to bet?
Favorable odds attract money.

[RiverDog]

Isn’t the original line set to encourage people to bet?
Favorable odds attract money.

I don't think that's how it works.

My understanding is that they look at past betting behavior on the teams involved and try to predict how the bets are going to trend when they establish their initial line then adjust it during the week as the bets start coming in. Their goal is to achieve a 50% payout on both outcomes as they make their money on the house fee charged on all bets. If the Cards are favored, it means they're expecting more people to bet on them, so they add a handicap to their side so as to encourage more people to bet on the Hawks.

[Hawktawk]

Typically the home field is worth 3 in itself so I see it as a pickum game in Vegas eyes. I don’t care . We’ve been favored twice all year and only won yesterday . I think we were a 1 point pick vs Atlanta and now they lead the south . The talking heads got Atlanta about as right as Seattle . I think they were one if maybe 3 teams picked to be worse than Seattle . Prognosticators and lots of GMs having a bad year so far .

[RiverDog]

Typically the home field is worth 3 in itself so I see it as a pickum game in Vegas eyes. I don’t care . We’ve been favored twice all year and only won yesterday . I think we were a 1 point pick vs Atlanta and now they lead the south . The talking heads got Atlanta about as right as Seattle . I think they were one if maybe 3 teams picked to be worse than Seattle . Prognosticators and lots of GMs having a bad year so far .

It's pretty well known around the league that Arizona doesn't have much, if any, of a home field advantage, at least not against teams that travel well, which includes the Seahawks. They wouldn't be able to sell out their stadium if not for the fact that it's such a nice place to travel to in the fall and winter, attracting a lot of fans from visiting teams. It's really a fun trip should anyone be looking for a road game to go to. Tickets are generally cheap and the venue is first class and in a great location in the Phoenix suburbs.

Nevertheless, it's still a curious fact that the Cards are favored by as much as they are. On a lot of occasions, in instances where teams that have a very large fan base, such as the Cowboys, there will be a lot more casual bettors that will throw down a $100 bill on their team no matter what the point spread is. Some fans may have unrealistic expectations due to a bias, others just want to have a nice little prize should their team win. This behavior tends to skew the betting, causing the bookies to react by increasing the point spread. But with the Cards, they don't have a large, dedicated fan base, so you would think that it would be reflected in the bookies establishing a line closer to the actual chances based on the relative quality of the two teams. It seems a little strange.

Although on this occasion, I'll likely bet on us as the point spread makes it a good bet, there are a lot of occasions where I'll bet against us. Betting on us to lose is a win-win for me, as if the Hawks win, I'm usually so elated that I don't mind losing a relatively small amount, and if we lose, then I have a nice little consolation prize to help cushion my disappointment.

[Aseahawkfan]

Seems accurate. We're in the mix.

Still not sure on the Eagles, but hard to argue with 7 and 0. Not sold on the Vikings either. I think we could beat either of those teams.

We'll see soon enough. Seems we are on track to make the playoffs if we can at least hold serve against the vision at home and win against any other weak teams on our schedule. Then we'll see where things stand.

[RiverDog]

Seems accurate. We're in the mix.

Still not sure on the Eagles, but hard to argue with 7 and 0. Not sold on the Vikings either. I think we could beat either of those teams.

We'll see soon enough. Seems we are on track to make the playoffs if we can at least hold serve against the vision at home and win against any other weak teams on our schedule. Then we'll see where things stand.

I don't start thinking playoffs until after the Thanksgiving games. Too many teams can rise, fall, then rise again, especially this season. It's one of those things I do to lower my expectations.

On paper, the last part of our season looks easier than the first part. The only two teams with a winning record are the Jets and Chiefs. Three of our nine remaining opponents are currently last in their division. But then you consider who some of those teams are, like one against the Niners, who waxed our arse, and Tampa Bay, that with Brady, could turn things around in a heart beat, and two against the Rams, and who knows what team will show up when we face them.

This season is really weird. No team in the NFC South is above .500, and no team in the NFC East and AFC East is below .500. I'm pretty sure that's never happened since realignment.

[Hawktawk]

Bills on the ropes in New York . I need to retract more statements . The damn league is unpredictable

[RiverDog]

Bills on the ropes in New York . I need to retract more statements . The damn league is unpredictable

Yuppers. I lost $50 on the frigging Packers and the Weird Beard, actually gave up points to bet on their sorry arses. Lost to the dead from the neck up Lions.

[Aseahawkfan]

Yuppers. I lost $50 on the frigging Packers and the Weird Beard, actually gave up points to bet on their sorry arses. Lost to the dead from the neck up Lions.

More par for the course for this weird year. Now Josh Allen might be hurt, so the Bills might take a hit.

[Hawktawk]

Yuppers. I lost $50 on the frigging Packers and the Weird Beard, actually gave up points to bet on their sorry arses. Lost to the dead from the neck up Lions.

More par for the course for this weird year. Now Josh Allen might be hurt, so the Bills might take a hit.[/quote]

I hope Allen’s ok , love watching him play . I’ve heard it could be tommy john surgery . See ya .

KC was fortunate to win Sunday night . Great no call when Kelce removes a guys helmet or they lose to the titans .
There’s no juggernaut.

Meanwhile Seattle has a 4 game winning streak for the first time since 2014.
Who can we not compete with ?
Nobody, that’s who .

[Hawktawk]

Jeremy Fowler predicts Seattle going 12-4 and winning the 2 seed .,that’s maybe a game optimistic for me but wow .

[Aseahawkfan]

Jeremy Fowler predicts Seattle going 12-4 and winning the 2 seed .,that’s maybe a game optimistic for me but wow .

It depends on consistency and how well we played against the cornered rat teams.

Looking at the schedule:

Tampa Bay: Veteran playoff team wanting to win their division and hold a higher seed than us led by Tom Brady.

Rams: Two division games that are pretty close to must win games for the Rams. They have been beat by a lot of playoff bound teams, but they are still the reigning Super Bowl champion and they know they have to beat us to make the playoffs.

Frisco: Nuff said.

Chiefs: Nuff said.

Jets: Not sure if they are for real, but they are a lot better than previous years.

That's 6 of our last 8 games against teams who can put up a good fight. Carolina and the Raiders beating us would be flukey or us playing down to the competition, but could happen.

I'm interested to see if Tampa Bay can challenge the NFC West division leader.

[NorthHawk]

If we can stay healthy for the most part, we can be competitive against most teams but we haven't had the injury bug hit us in a big way yet.
Adams and Penny are the two biggest losses and we really haven't missed Adams and Walker is doing well in Penny's stead. As well we dodged a bullet with DK and his patella tendon.

[RiverDog]

If we can stay healthy for the most part, we can be competitive against most teams but we haven't had the injury bug hit us in a big way yet.
Adams and Penny are the two biggest losses and we really haven't missed Adams and Walker is doing well in Penny's stead. As well we dodged a bullet with DK and his patella tendon.

Agreed. No drop off from either Adams or Penny, and I'd argue that we're better without Adams, who was a liability in pass defense. Losing him might have been a blessing in disguise.

[Hawktawk]

There is no Fing blessing in losing Adams . Period . Or Penny or any Hawk .

For one I wrote 12-4. Kind of like saying San Diego Chargers . Not used to it
So 12-5. I’m sure Fowler had us at 5 wins week one so his opinion is worth very little just like all the guys jumping on the bandwagon now. But these guys do this for a living . They see what we all do .

I been watching over 4 decades . 6 -11 is mathematically possible as is 14-3. But we have had a steady output of good to great offense since week 3. In the last 4 games we have won by a minimum of ten points in spite of giving the ball up for TDs in 3 of the games with fumbles , a blocked punt and a pick 6. Our defense is # 1 in that time including #1 in sacks and pressures . Nwosu has his career high in sacks already . We are within 4 sacks of league leading Dallas despite playing like hell for 5 games . We have beat 4 quality teams in a row , 4 “ franchise “ QBs including 1 twice . We’re 3-0 against 50 million dollar a year guys so far this year .

Quite a few analysts , most actually are as confused as I as to why Tampa is favored . They are struggling to run and stop the run . Brady has 1 multiple TD game . Geno has 6. Brady has 1 game with a qbr over 100. Geno has 7. Brady is completing 65%Geno 73%. I could go on .
This year at least Geno is a far superior qb or has been so far .
So why is Tampa favored ? We have only been the favorite in 3 of 9 games but what does Vegas know ? Or should I say the people betting . I’m wary of Munich . Weird stuff happens with Brady . Probably won’t sleep much .


I won’t break down all the matchups . I don’t fear division games . I think the Rams are completely undone , 4th worst offense in the league . Grumbling and bickering . Donald is off plus Geno won’t fear him . We can sweep them .

9 ers will have our full attention. . Throw out week 2 . Buzz saw . Did everything possible wrong . We swept Garropolo last year with half the team we have Nov 12 , 2022. I think we might beat them up . They are worse . We are much better . It’s in front of the 12s .

Injuries can happen , I’m thinking if Geno went down it’s the worst unless they have Lock coached up . Walker would be huge as well . Although Homer and Dee Jay showed some life it’s a completely different level . I think back to Atlanta and 2 busted plays where K9 went to the wrong side and missed the handoff . Love to have seen those 2 carries in hindsight.

We’re 6-3. Could be 8-1. Could be 4-5. Nothing fluky about the last 4 games . Peaking too early is a concern but im feeling good about my original projection at a minimum and getting greedy .

[RiverDog]

There is no Fing blessing in losing Adams . Period . Or Penny or any Hawk .

The fact is that we are a MUCH better defense without Adams than we ever were with him. Just a coincidence, you say? Is it also a coincidence that we're a better offense without Russell than we were with him? It's pretty difficult to maintain credibility if you answer yes to the first question and no to the 2nd. Addition by subtraction.

[Hawktawk]

There is no Fing blessing in losing Adams . Period . Or Penny or any Hawk .

The fact is that we are a MUCH better defense without Adams than we ever were with him. Just a coincidence, you say? Is it also a coincidence that we're a better offense without Russell than we were with him? It's pretty difficult to maintain credibility if you answer yes to the first question and no to the 2nd. Addition by subtraction.[/quote]

We played less than half a game with Adams and after he got hurt blowing up Denver’s backfield we had the worst defense in the league most of the first 4.5 games without him. We have no idea how we would have been with Adams .
But that’s not the point river . I’ve caught flak for getting a little to hard on a guy that forced his way out , impugned our coach and organization and even our fans and city . Oh I was too harsh . So listen up .
You want to say the defense is better without him fine. As I say we don’t know what Clint’s scheme with safety and corner blitzes and DB heavy packages would have looked like with an explosive athlete like Adams . Might have been spectacular . But I’ll concede you may be right . It’s not knowable but it’s damn good .
When you say “ ITS A BLESSING IN DISQUISE” that Jamal Adams got hurt you lose me . Don’t talk again about how I adressed Wilson’s messy exit and multiple issues . It’s not a blessing . Kinda like running on here to proclaim you knew Penny would get hurt .
Have a little more respect for guys who got hurt busting their ass for Seattle . It’s not always about winning an argument from 3 or 4 years ago .

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

Adams was good in the box. May have helped in the run game, but definitely agree he was a liability in pass coverage. That was the main reason I didn’t agree with his contract. Hard to say for certain where the defense would be if he had been healthy, but can’t argue with Ryan Neal doing a fine job. Had Adams stayed healthy, it might have been better to have him play LB and let Neal do his thing.

I wish Penny was playing, but we wouldn’t be seeing Walker shine like he is.

Maybe not blessing, but there is definitely a silver lining to Adams and Penny going down.

[Aseahawkfan]

We played less than half a game with Adams and after he got hurt blowing up Denver’s backfield we had the worst defense in the league most of the first 4.5 games without him. We have no idea how we would have been with Adams .
But that’s not the point river . I’ve caught flak for getting a little to hard on a guy that forced his way out , impugned our coach and organization and even our fans and city . Oh I was too harsh . So listen up .
You want to say the defense is better without him fine. As I say we don’t know what Clint’s scheme with safety and corner blitzes and DB heavy packages would have looked like with an explosive athlete like Adams . Might have been spectacular . But I’ll concede you may be right . It’s not knowable but it’s damn good .
When you say “ ITS A BLESSING IN DISQUISE” that Jamal Adams got hurt you lose me . Don’t talk again about how I adressed Wilson’s messy exit and multiple issues . It’s not a blessing . Kinda like running on here to proclaim you knew Penny would get hurt .
Have a little more respect for guys who got hurt busting their ass for Seattle . It’s not always about winning an argument from 3 or 4 years ago .

Addition by subtraction with Adams and Penny out. You know how it works, man. You been pushing that for a while now. Addition by subtraction, we're better with Walker and a better cover safety than Adams.

[Hawktawk]

I agree with you and River , we’re certainly better on defense then last year and really then any time since about 2014 to my eyes . I’m strictly talking about referring to a guy like Adams getting hurt again as a”blessing “ . Ask him how blessed he feels . Kinda like using post game of a guy getting hurt as a soap box to say he was injury prone or a bust .
That’s all . Bad choice of words .

Penny going down did open the door for Walker who is looking like a brilliant selection . They would have been a devastating 1-2 combo with different styles . But as Penny fan boy for years , still am , I think Walker is more dangerous . He’s got the same power and speed but he’s much more elusive in a phone booth in traffic . Hope and pray he stays healthy .

KJ was on Seattle sports . He says K9 has the balance of Alvin Kamura , the patience of Layveon Bell and the physicality of BeastMode . He is amazed by the guy and let’s remember he was amazed by Geno months back and also said we would challenge for a playoff spot this season

. Dude is money . The greatest draft in history looks better every day .

[RiverDog]

Adams was good in the box. May have helped in the run game, but definitely agree he was a liability in pass coverage. That was the main reason I didn’t agree with his contract. Hard to say for certain where the defense would be if he had been healthy, but can’t argue with Ryan Neal doing a fine job. Had Adams stayed healthy, it might have been better to have him play LB and let Neal do his thing.

I wish Penny was playing, but we wouldn’t be seeing Walker shine like he is.

Maybe not blessing, but there is definitely a silver lining to Adams and Penny going down.

At 6'1" and 213, Adams is too small to be a linebacker. He was OK playing in the box, but there's no way he would have been as effective as a traditional linebacker like Brooks or Mafe. That contract we gave him was ridiculous, almost as bad as the trade.

In my mind, Penny and Walker are a push. They are the same type of running back, both very effective in the roles they were being asked to play. I don't think we're any better or worse off with Walker in there vs. Penny.

Bottom line is that North Hawk is exactly right. We certainly weren't hurt by the injuries to Adams and Penny and are arguably better.

[RiverDog]

I agree with you and River , we’re certainly better on defense then last year and really then any time since about 2014 to my eyes . I’m strictly talking about referring to a guy like Adams getting hurt again as a”blessing “ . Ask him how blessed he feels . Kinda like using post game of a guy getting hurt as a soap box to say he was injury prone or a bust .
That’s all . Bad choice of words .

Fair enough. I don't get as emotionally attached to players like you do and at times find myself thinking of them as inanimate objects, assets on a balance sheet. So, I'll correct my statement by saying that after Adams went out, our defense got better. Addition by subtraction, as you're so fond of saying.

[Hawktawk]

No disagreement here . I’m a ruthless fan as any but when a guy as good and good a teammate as Penny or Adams goes down it’s not the time to pile on .
The bottom line we have an offense as consistent as any in a long time and the most lock down D we’ve had since the LOB disbanded. We can all get behind that . Let’s see how they handle Brady .
GO HAWKS!

[RiverDog]

No disagreement here . I’m a ruthless fan as any but when a guy as good and good a teammate as Penny or Adams goes down it’s not the time to pile on.

I don't like seeing anyone hurt. My comments are from a purely practical POV. I don't alter my opinion of an injured player's performance or value to the team simply because they got hurt. It's not like they died, and we shouldn't make any negative comments during a period of mourning while the flags are still at half-staff.

Penny and Adams are filthy rich and will end up making 10 times more money than you and I put together. I'm not shedding any tears for them or any other multimillion dollar player that suffered a career ending injury. They'll simply have to endure a career/lifestyle change, like we've all had to do at one or more points during our lives.

[Hawktawk]

I shed figurative tears any time my team of 45 years loses a player of the caliber of either . And I care about them as people too , like I care about co workers . They have a death in the family I care , a wedding , a birthday . They are part of my family , I let them in my living room every week for 3 hours . I feel the same way about retired hawks .
And I surely feel bad for guys who spend 20 years becoming the best and lose it to some fluke injury or injuries . I care . It matters to me . Maybe not you . I think you’re a bit callous to guys who get hurt trying to help Seattle win .

[RiverDog]

I shed figurative tears any time my team of 45 years loses a player of the caliber of either . And I care about them as people too , like I care about co workers . They have a death in the family I care , a wedding , a birthday . They are part of my family , I let them in my living room every week for 3 hours . I feel the same way about retired hawks .
And I surely feel bad for guys who spend 20 years becoming the best and lose it to some fluke injury or injuries . I care . It matters to me . Maybe not you . I think you’re a bit callous to guys who get hurt trying to help Seattle win .

I don't think it's fair to say that I'm callous to guys getting hurt. My comments are strictly as it applies to the effect it has on the team.

I don't like seeing anyone getting hurt, especially if it's a life changing type injury. When I was a junior in high school, I had a teammate that was killed in a football game, and I was the one that substituted when he went down. It had a profound effect on me, seeing the lifeless body of teammates loaded into the back of an ambulance, and to this day, seeing a stretcher being rolled out on the field brings back that memory.

However, unlike you, I don't treat them like I would a family member, a co worker, or even a friend like you on this forum as I know very little about who they are. They're business assets, much like plant and equipment to a company.

[RiverDog]

Walker's not having a good day. 10 yards on 6 carries and just dropped an easy pass. I guess we know why he's not being used on passing downs. Our offense sucks, we've punted 4 times in the first half, 0-4 on 3rd down, 3 first downs to Tampa Bay's 13, 50 yards of total offense. Lockett has just one target. The defense isn't going to be able to hold up if the O doesn't play better. Hopefully things improve in the 2nd half.

[NorthHawk]

So now the Bills drop to 3rd place in their division. A lot of time left in the year but still it’s a strange year
to predict how teams will do. Epic football game between them and Minnesota. The Vikings might just be for real.

[RiverDog]

So now the Bills drop to 3rd place in their division. A lot of time left in the year but still it’s a strange year
to predict how teams will do. Epic football game between them and Minnesota. The Vikings might just be for real.

I'll say that was an epic game. The Vikings winning percentage flipped from 95% to 5% to 95% on three successive plays. Looks like the Chiefs are in the driver's seat for HFA in the AFC. Funny how everyone thought that the AFC was the better conference yet it's the NFC with the two teams with the best records.

Josh Allen has thrown 4 red zone interceptions in the last two games, and the last one cost them a win or at least a tie. His MVP status has taken a big hit.

The Rams are going down, too. The Cards are putting the wood to them. Looks like Cooper Kupp had a major leg injury. Niners play tonight.

[Hawktawk]

A crazy season got crazier . Buffalo in trouble in the division . Rams done for . Vikings legit . We learn more tonight about our division . Seattle ? I have no clue right now . I’ve had the finger on their pulse pretty well but that game was so unexpectedly putrid I have no words right now . Your guess is as good as mine . I still feel good about 10 wins but not talking championship’s after that turd

[RiverDog]

A crazy season got crazier . Buffalo in trouble in the division . Rams done for . Vikings legit . We learn more tonight about our division . Seattle ? I have no clue right now . I’ve had the finger on their pulse pretty well but that game was so unexpectedly putrid I have no words right now . Your guess is as good as mine . I still feel good about 10 wins but not talking championship’s after that turd

This is the craziest season that I can remember. I'm still on the Niners bandwagon, but we'll see how they look tonight.

[NorthHawk]

The 49ers Defense looked pretty good, good enough to win.
The Packers beating Dallas is a bit of a surprise and even if their season is lost, they could become spoilers.

[RiverDog]

The 49ers Defense looked pretty good, good enough to win.
The Packers beating Dallas is a bit of a surprise and even if their season is lost, they could become spoilers.

Yeah, the Niners are definitely right up there with the Vikings and Eagles because of their defense and the weapons they have on offense, but Jimmy G. is a liability. Defenses keep you in games, but one brain fart by the QB and everything can come unraveled.