Geno in review

[mykc14]

Geno is playing well. He is playing better at this point in the season than I would have thought, although my issue with us signing him had nothing to do with his overall ability to play football. Actually, it was the opposite. I didn't want him to be our QB because he was too good. I saw him as a guy that would lead us to 7-9 wins and a middle of the road draft pick. I saw our roster about two years away from competing for a SB. I wanted Drew Lock to start for us because I thought he would only be able to lead us to 4 or 5 wins. To me this is all about us getting back to the SB. I am still worried we will finish with 7-9 wins, just out of the playoffs. I have been critical of PC over the past three years and my criticism continues now. He has complete control over the roster and is a defensive head coach who has as defense that has been TERRIBLE for years. He decides where the money is spent. He decides which players are on the team. He decides the offensive and defense schemes that we run. There is literally nobody to blame for this defense than PC. With that being said when management decided to not fire PC I wanted to give him at least two years to turn this around. I still feel the same way but I if things don't improve drastically it might be a really good time to move on. Two first round draft picks and two seconds would be enticing for any head coach wanting to come in and take this rebuild on.

[I-5]

Geno is playing well. He is playing better at this point in the season than I would have thought, although my issue with us signing him had nothing to do with his overall ability to play football. Actually, it was the opposite. I didn't want him to be our QB because he was too good. I saw him as a guy that would lead us to 7-9 wins and a middle of the road draft pick. I saw our roster about two years away from competing for a SB. I wanted Drew Lock to start for us because I thought he would only be able to lead us to 4 or 5 wins. To me this is all about us getting back to the SB. I am still worried we will finish with 7-9 wins, just out of the playoffs. I have been critical of PC over the past three years and my criticism continues now. He has complete control over the roster and is a defensive head coach who has as defense that has been TERRIBLE for years. He decides where the money is spent. He decides which players are on the team. He decides the offensive and defense schemes that we run. There is literally nobody to blame for this defense than PC. With that being said when management decided to not fire PC I wanted to give him at least two years to turn this around. I still feel the same way but I if things don't improve drastically it might be a really good time to move on. Two first round draft picks and two seconds would be enticing for any head coach wanting to come in and take this rebuild on.

Interesting take. Makes sense from a fan standpoint, but 1) I don't think the coaches want to put anything on the field that they don't think they can win with i.e. no tanking and 2) I think we can get a franchise QB without needing to have a Top 5 pick. Having said that, we should end up with at least 1 if not 2 top 10 picks.

[mykc14]

As far as axing Pete fine. Maybe we get the next Matt Rhule . Or the next Nathaniel Hackett although he’s calling nice plays . Qb can’t hit them. Meanwhile we have an amazing story , an exciting offense , and we’re a couple plays , couple of bs penalties from being 4-1 with disastrous run defense and yards and bad special teams . The book on Pete 22 isn’t written yet and if it’s his swan song he left it in a lot better shape then he found it . For the next hot coach to F it up .
He’s a great coach . I respect him a lot more then I do previous guy .

Yes we will never know how good or bad the next hire will be if we get rid of PC, but we do know what PC has been the past few years- a defensive head coach who is coaching one of the worst defenses in the league. I don't know how amazing our story is. Just about every team is "a couple of plays, couple of BS penalties away from being 4-1." That is the difference between being a "good" QB in the league and mediocre. Like I said before, when Geno starts to win those close games I will start admit that he is an above average starter in this league. The reality is we are 2-3 with two wins vs. teams with a combined 3-7 record and have also lost to two bad teams (Saints with an offense full of backups and the Falcons). You complain about our terrible defense and tell us how good Geno's record would be with a good defense yet you continue to make excuses for PC. PC has nobody to blame but himself when it comes to this defense and at some point he should be held accountable. Continue to push all of these hypotheticals on us and bash RW (I created a thread last year stating that there is no way we could win another SB with him at QB) none of it matters. At the end of the day we are a 2-3 team who is probably going to finish with 7-9 wins. Our only saving grace might that the Broncos aren't great and hopefully they keep playing bad. If Geno continues to play at this level he will provide a good placeholder for our next QB and for what it's worth I hope you are right about him. I hope he becomes the man that can win us a SB, I really do. I want us to be able to us a high draft pick on defense because we are so bad, I just don't think he is.

[mykc14]

Interesting take. Makes sense from a fan standpoint, but 1) I don't think the coaches want to put anything on the field that they don't think they can win with i.e. no tanking and 2) I think we can get a franchise QB without needing to have a Top 5 pick. Having said that, we should end up with at least 1 if not 2 top 10 picks.

1) No doubt. There is no tanking in PC, he thinks this team can win the SB and honestly that's what you want in a head coach. Just rolling with Drew Lock would have been an easy way to tank without it looking like they are tanking though. He could have sold the "we are trying to win now" narrative and even believed it if they didn't re-sign Geno, but as soon as we signed him he was clearly going to be the man and in my mind set us up to be a 7-9 win team.

2) I hope you're right. It's such a crap shoot. Who knows how these QB's will turn out? The only thing I hold onto is Schnieder loved RW and that turned out great and he was fascinated with both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, two QB's who have proven to be great. If he likes zero's in on a guy that he likes I could probably get behind that.

[RiverDog]

How about addressing my points about Geno being wanted . And maybe when you admit you were wrong and he’s a competent starter I’ll quit pointing out you were dead wrong about him. Dead wrong about Pete’s evaluation . Dead wrong thinking we should dump Pete and keep the diva . Really really wrong .

We've already covered that ground, my friend. I see no reason to cover it again. You have your opinion, and I have mine.

As far as my admitting that I was wrong about Geno, I've said repeatedly that he's played well above my expectations to this point of the season. If that's not admission enough for you, then you'll just have to pound sand. We're 5 weeks into the season, and a ton of football left to play.

As far as axing Pete fine. Maybe we get the next Matt Rhule . Or the next Nathaniel Hackett although he’s calling nice plays . Qb can’t hit them. Meanwhile we have an amazing story , an exciting offense , and we’re a couple plays , couple of bs penalties from being 4-1 with disastrous run defense and yards and bad special teams . The book on Pete 22 isn’t written yet and if it’s his swan song he left it in a lot better shape then he found it . For the next hot coach to F it up .
He’s a great coach . I respect him a lot more then I do previous guy .

You continue to distort my position on Pete and Russell. Yes,I felt that one of the two had to go, and yes, I would have preferred to have kept Russell and fired Pete. Once the decision was made to keep Pete for another year, I was on board with them trading Russell, and being that we were resigned to keeping Pete at least another season, I made a pledge not to call for his head until the end of the season or when we're eliminated from playoff contention, and I've held to that position. What I am saying is that we can no longer continue to blame DC's for the state of our defense, that we have to start holding Pete accountable. It's his defense, not Hurtt'. Pete is the defensive guru. That does not mean that I want to fire Pete, at least not now during the season.

[RiverDog]

Hawktawk, my friend, you really need to read mykc's post thoroughly as he speaks for a lot of us, so I'm posting it again:

Yes we will never know how good or bad the next hire will be if we get rid of PC, but we do know what PC has been the past few years- a defensive head coach who is coaching one of the worst defenses in the league. I don't know how amazing our story is. Just about every team is "a couple of plays, couple of BS penalties away from being 4-1." That is the difference between being a "good" QB in the league and mediocre. Like I said before, when Geno starts to win those close games I will start admit that he is an above average starter in this league. The reality is we are 2-3 with two wins vs. teams with a combined 3-7 record and have also lost to two bad teams (Saints with an offense full of backups and the Falcons). You complain about our terrible defense and tell us how good Geno's record would be with a good defense yet you continue to make excuses for PC. PC has nobody to blame but himself when it comes to this defense and at some point he should be held accountable. Continue to push all of these hypotheticals on us and bash RW (I created a thread last year stating that there is no way we could win another SB with him at QB) none of it matters. At the end of the day we are a 2-3 team who is probably going to finish with 7-9 wins. Our only saving grace might that the Broncos aren't great and hopefully they keep playing bad. If Geno continues to play at this level he will provide a good placeholder for our next QB and for what it's worth I hope you are right about him. I hope he becomes the man that can win us a SB, I really do. I want us to be able to us a high draft pick on defense because we are so bad, I just don't think he is.

[Hawktawk]

River as I’ve said I give Pete this year . I can show you posts from last December when Russ heated up and Penny went wild when I said run it all back . Then came Russels AZ game blowing a hot read for a strip 6 and throwing in effect a pick 6 almost spoiling a nice defensive effort and 195 by Penny and I said mmmm. Then the drama started will he stay or will he go with Russ . I’d become convinced Russ was staying but when he was traded and stuff started coming out about his horrible relationship with Pete and the FO was I felt Pete deserved another year based strictly on that . If sweet loving Christian boy is having his agent calling Pete and john and dropping f bombs after wins if Russ didn’t get to pass enough that’s a little dictator . A guy forcing out Schottie and then posting a flowery video praising him as a great coach , even slipped in a little brother in Christ reference . That’s a little dictator . You don’t like it pound sand as you say . I was more right about both QBs then I thought .
And I already read the mkc14 post. A lot I agree with. We may well go 7-10. We may go 10-7 or anything in between or above or below . I give Pete one year to produce a winning record . My attitude doesn’t matter , it’s Jodi that will decide but I think this draft and the way the trade has developed in both cities coupled with a steal at qb he’s not done all that bad . Yeah it’s all about the defense but I think the pieces are better than the product by far and so let’s see. One more 200 yard stampede something has to change .

[Hawktawk]

If Geno can play near his level over 8 starts for a season he can absolutely win a Super Bowl anywhere there’s some defense . There’s any number of teams that would gladly take him off our hands . Unless he falls off the cliff his detractors keep expecting he will be starting somewhere next year too .

As an interesting side note Pete said today that Drew Lock is “ nipping at Genos heels in practice “
It’s one of the theories I had about Geno morphing into a pro bowl caliber comeback player of the year candidate after joining this organization . What if they can do it for Lock too ? That would be a good problem . Ride out the year and if he’s ready draft defense , trade Geno or Lock for more defense .

Pete is a master at developing QBs .

[Aseahawkfan]

How about stow it. There’s no justification for being called a scumbag for speaking truths about Russel . Did you catch the tweets from Baldwin and other players after the Seattle game ? . There’s some harsh feelings from people who know him better than me . And the ten year fandom shrinks by the day as it becomes clear who he is , who he became , everywhere but this forum . I was a trailblazer for Seahawks nation and Pete and john got it 100% right .

. I don’t care if he goes to church or donated to charity or whatever . As our qb be sucked in the end and was disrespectful and ungrateful The hell with him . Good riddance.

I’m not whining about out to lunch people hurling insults , Just pointing out how wrong you all were about Geno and that’s what you latch on to . You people don’t debate facts . Oh and he backed up his POW with a PFF offensive player of the week this week . That’s 32 teams . Is he a competent starter yet ?

You insulted him personally, called him a liar while making excuses for Pete Carroll for being just as big a liar, and just went on and on calling him selfish when even his peers who vote the Walter Payton Man of the Year award voted him Man of the Years, his fellow NFL players.

https://nflcommunications.com/Pages/SEATTLE-SEAHAWKS-QUARTERBACK-RUSSELL-WILSON-NAMED-THE-WALTER-PAYTON-NFL-MAN-OF-THE-YEAR.aspx

You were attacking Russell personally. Insulting him, claiming all his teammates hate him, and just taking shot after shot after shot.

Even now you are reveling in his failure, while trying to call out Riverdog and myself because Penny was injured just like we said was likely to happen due to his injury history.

Now you're playing the whining victim gloating some more because you were right about Geno playing well, while not admitting you were wrong about Penny going down again, wrong about Carroll's defense being better, and if this thing don't turn around real soon you'll be wrong about the record.

You're an arrogant, vulgar person. I consider that a negative trait. I don't feel like letting you run your mouth about Russ insulting him for things that have nothing whatsoever to do with football unopposed. Some people would rather have a world filled with a bunch of DUI offenders, people who attack their wives, and folks who don't stay consistent and work hard. Makes them feel better about themselves I guess.

I've come to accept you're one of those people who never owns his behavior. Never admits when he's wrong, just makes excuse after excuse when he's wrong and then gloats when he's right like a broken clock over and over again.

And I'll leave it there so I don't offend more people by calling you out for your behavior that was wrong for attacking Russ like you did not for his play on the field, but for a bunch of garbage off it that was nothing more than gossip and speculation. When I look at the people like Sherman taking their shots at Russell, I look at their character and I guess that's where you want to be. He seems to be the loudest voice taking his petty shots while Russ is not playing well.

I will speak no more about it until the end of the season where we'll see what the final season looks like and if Mr. I Love to Gloat Early and Often predictions hold up.

[Hawktawk]

What I said of Penny after his second start vs the Texans was he is clearly talented enough to justify his selection and if he was healthy he would be a top back in the league . Find where I said I guaranteed his or anyone else’s health . I guaranteed his talent . And everybody gushed over his play then boom and I knew exactly what I’d see, people happy to win an argument over a great guy , great hawk , great talent getting hurt . Just like Adams . Rush to the forum to call him a bust.

As for me being arrogant and vulgar . Vulgar ? I think calling me a scumbag low morals rumors monger liar with half the character of Wilson is far worse then me saying 8 months ago what everyone is saying now . So whatever dude . I care what you think of me zero . Talk about arrogant .

[RiverDog]

I will stick up for Hawktawk on one topic. That injury to Penny was not due to conditioning, running style, or any other factor under his or the team's control. It's like Lockett's injury a few years ago. There were other injuries that Penny suffered due to his lack of conditioning, but not this one.

Penny is snake bit. Injuries follow him around, and there is no explaining or predicting them, at least not this latest one. When we drafted him, it wasn't necessarily him that I objected to spending a first rounder on, although I did favor Nick Chubb, it's running backs in general. I wasn't thrilled with the Walker selection, either, except that he looks to be a good value relative to other running backs and his body type MAY allow for him to be less susceptible to injuries.

[Aseahawkfan]

I will stick up for Hawktawk on one topic. That injury to Penny was not due to conditioning, running style, or any other factor under his or the team's control. It's like Lockett's injury a few years ago. There were other injuries that Penny suffered due to his lack of conditioning, but not this one.

Penny is snake bit. Injuries follow him around, and there is no explaining or predicting them, at least not this latest one. When we drafted him, it wasn't necessarily him that I objected to spending a first rounder on, although I did favor Nick Chubb, it's running backs in general. I wasn't thrilled with the Walker selection, either, except that he looks to be a good value relative to other running backs and his body type MAY allow for him to be less susceptible to injuries.

Penny doesn't have NFL durability. I consider NFL durability a real NFL trait. One that can be measured. It can't be foreseen. If a player doesn't have it, it doesn't matter how good he is, he won't make it on field. I do not believe that players who don't prove to have NFL durability suddenly develop it in year 5. Which is why you and I and a ton of other fans were dubious about Penny continuing his run.

If Mr. Gloater can sing his praises about Geno, he can admit he was wrong about Penny. Or is that too much to expect?

I guess I'll only post when I'm right about something, ignore when I'm wrong, gloat about it early, and then pretend I'm a victim because that's the way to be a decent person. Maybe I should post a laughing or eye roll emoji at the end of this.

[RiverDog]

Penny doesn't have NFL durability. I consider NFL durability a real NFL trait. One that can be measured. It can't be foreseen. If a player doesn't have it, it doesn't matter how good he is, he won't make it on field. I do not believe that players who don't prove to have NFL durability suddenly develop it in year 5. Which is why you and I and a ton of other fans were dubious about Penny continuing his run.

I agree that Penny lacks the durability required to be an NFL running back. He's had problems in the past with muscle pulls, which can be related to a lack of good conditioning, and he's reported to camp overweight..although this season he was reportedly in very good condition. I was simply commenting on the injury he suffered last Sunday.

Problem is when you add together the random element that every running back faces with the controllable injuries like muscle pulls, the sum is that they are injury prone.

[Hawktawk]

Listen Asea . As I say I didn’t say he would be healthy . I said he would be a great back if he was and I thought we should resign him . He’s snake bit. Looks like Russ is now too with the finger and now the lat. it’s a freak injury . I hoped he would stay healthy and this wasn’t a sprain or pull from being fat . It’s a bone break from 1k worth of bodies . Guy had played 2 games with a shoulder injury that he didn’t even mention to the press and played excellent . It’s a tragedy in the sports sense because I’ve rarely seen a dude that big that is that fast and slippery . Kind of like Shawn Alexander , maybe more physical , definitely faster . But Shawn had that line and pass to run offense and knew when to get out of bounds or fall down . Point is man it sucks what happened . For all the ragging on Pete the Walker pick is looking excellent . Woolen might already be the best corner in the league . 0 TDs, 3 picks . Passer rating of 40 against . All is not lost . Pete has not Fd up everything . Just what he’s known for .

Which is why I don’t I understand why I’m accused of not owning being wrong . I said thr rook tackles would play well . Check . My call on both QBs . Check . I missed defense by a mile . I expected improvement . I was so impressed with Hurrt , he was like an evangelist . Preach it . Mike Salk bought it . Not sure about you Asea but I can’t remember a more pathetic defense other than corner play . I was dead wrong about this defense. If it’s this bad all year I want a new coach . But if Geno plays well I want him another year at least as well . Look man I enjoy your intelligent posts and I don’t like scuffling all the time . I’m just saying it’s not about who’s right or wrong . It’s just not all bad

[RiverDog]

Perhaps it's time to have another "Geno in Review" discussion:

On film, Smith is simply not taking care of the ball as well as he was early in the season. For a while now Smith has too often appeared over-aggressive, trying to throw dimes tight windows at a high rate, extending plays too long and not maintaining ball security in the red zone. It hasn’t worked out well for him or his team. These numbers from Pro Football Focus illustrate how much Smith’s recklessness with the ball has hurt Seattle.

According to Pro Football Focus, Smith has lost more expected points to interceptions, sacks and fumbles than any other QB since Week 5.

Weeks 1-4: 5th in EPA/play, 30.9 total EPA
Weeks 5-14: 18th in EPA/play, 29.7 total EPA

https://seahawkswire.usatoday.com/2022/ ... ce-week-5/

I've noticed how lately, with yesterday being no exception, that Geno has been taking more risks, trying to jamb balls into tight windows, and felt that he's been lucky to have as few of interceptions as he has.

It should also be noted that in his first 5 games, Geno's protection was excellent. I don't think Lucas gave up his first sack until about 6 or 7 games into the season. But since then, it's been very shaky, so we can't blame this decline in performance on Geno alone. I haven't seen any numbers, but my suspicion is that Geno has been under a lot more pressure in games 6-13 than he was earlier in the season.

[NorthHawk]

Teams are now figuring out what the Seahawks are doing on Offense and are countering it. Without much of a run game it's even easier to defend.
The pass protection is still pretty good but this is new territory for rookies used to playing only 12 games and proper rest and nutrition can be difficult to follow for young kids.
I'll take a pair of rookie OTs playing at an average level in the NFL any time because they are going to improve with experience.

Geno is a surprise to me but he's been very lucky. I said in another post that he had the most dropped INT's in the league. Now the defenders aren't dropping as many and it's looking a little shaky.
He's still playing at a better than backup level so it's a bonus. The rest of the season will tell how mgmt views the QB position and whether they offer Geno a huge contract or a shorter term one at a lesser value.
It will also determine whether a QB is taken early or not in the draft.

[Hawktawk]

Geno has had a mixed bag with all the stats but he’s had more turnovers the second half of the season . That said here’s some confusing stats . We are minus 500 yards rushing since week 10 . Can’t run . Yet Geno entered last game #1 on throws past the sticks . # 1 on throws traveling 20 air yards . #2 qbr . One of 3 men in history to have a 60% completion #and 80> qbr 12 straight games . It all came apart . I think he was pressing knowing for certain he had no run game and seeing the D couldn’t stop them . Pete called the first pick his “ play of the year “ clearly angry at the throw . He said the play was an underneath route and he thought he saw something . He wad diplomatic about the second one on a decision by 2 refs to not flag offsides . Both Pete and Huard said he needed to look for the flags and he said the same thing in his post game comments . I love listening to Geno , so real , takes accountability. Didn’t point fingers at the refs “ I’ve got to see a flag , just have to learn from it .

Huard wasn’t so kind to the officials , pointing out in an obvious blitz situation there’s 2 guys watching the line of scrimmage . Huard wasn’t kind to anyone though nor should anyone be . My biggest concern with Geno is he was listed with a shoulder . He and Pete said not a factor but his velocity and accuracy were both off imo . If we can’t run no qb can save us .

[RiverDog]

Teams are now figuring out what the Seahawks are doing on Offense and are countering it. Without much of a run game it's even easier to defend.
The pass protection is still pretty good but this is new territory for rookies used to playing only 12 games and proper rest and nutrition can be difficult to follow for young kids.
I'll take a pair of rookie OTs playing at an average level in the NFL any time because they are going to improve with experience.

Geno is a surprise to me but he's been very lucky. I said in another post that he had the most dropped INT's in the league. Now the defenders aren't dropping as many and it's looking a little shaky.
He's still playing at a better than backup level so it's a bonus. The rest of the season will tell how mgmt views the QB position and whether they offer Geno a huge contract or a shorter term one at a lesser value.
It will also determine whether a QB is taken early or not in the draft.

I agree. He had a couple of balls that he was lucky weren't picked off yesterday, too. All QB's get away with some, but I don't have a good feel for whether or not Geno has more than his fair share.

You mentioned that Geno leads the league in dropped interceptions. Is that just an impression or do you have some sort of source that has been tracking it that you're using?

[NorthHawk]

I was watching a show on TV and the person talking stated it as a fact that Geno was getting the breaks.
I never knew that was a measured statistic so it held my interest. If it was true earlier in the year then it might be he’s
not getting as lucky now as the numbers bend back towards the norm.

[RiverDog]

I did a little more research into this "Expected Points Added" metric that I referenced earlier in this thread that had showed Geno in such a bad light. It was confusing to me because even if you factored out our first 4 games, Geno's basic stat line, ie completion percentage, TD/INT, passer rating, etc, was still very good. Apparently, "EPA" is a metric that ESPN created some time ago and handicaps things like passing yards depending on a number of things, like field position, down and distance, and so on, rather than treating all yards gained, passes completed, etc, as equal. Here's a little better explanation:

Based on statistical analysis of 10 years of NFL play-by-play data, ESPN has created a formula that assigns an "expected points" value to the team with the ball at the start of each play based on the game situation. Expected points (EP) accounts for factors such as down, distance to go, field position, home-field advantage and time remaining.

The value it puts out is on a scale from about minus-3 to 7, and it basically represents "which team is likely to score next, and how many points?" It represents the likely points not just on the current drive but also on the next drive or any subsequent drive until the score changes or the half ends. A lower value indicates a more favorable situation for the defense (i.e. fourth-and-20 from your own 1-yard line could be close to minus-3 EP), and a higher value represents a more favorable situation for the offense (i.e. first-and-goal is generally worth 6 EP).

Without going into technical details, the key is that the relationships in the EP formula encapsulate the basic tenets of football, including:

• Being closer to the opposing goal line and farther from your own is better

• Earlier downs are better (first-and-10 is better than second-and-10, etc.)

• Shorter distance to go is better

• Being at home is better

The benefit of having this EP value at the start of each play is that it can be used to measure the success of that play by comparing it to the EP value at the start of the next play. Good offensive plays such as first downs generally increase EP; losses or incomplete passes generally decrease it. This difference in EP from one play to the next is called expected points added (EPA). Because of all it accounts for and its points scale, EPA is a very accurate measure of how each play affects potential changes on the scoreboard.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/837 ... nts-metric

[Hawktawk]

Geno is also sitting on 25 TD passes in 13 starts with no run game and looking at crap penalties and drops he should have 30 now so how about dropped TDs ? . 8 picks , 2 of the last 3 were a completed pass ripped away from a player who was down . Yesterday everyone but the refs thought it was a free play . They did too just decided not to give it up . I have him at 6 plus a bunch of drops . Maybe he should get credit on drops when the refs give him a pick .

He’s an aggressive qb which is why he’s in harms way, tries tight throws constantly. A remorseless gunslinger really .

I’ll point out again Matt Stafford led the league in picks with 17 last year including 4 pick 6s . Last I checked they have a Lombardi . My greatest concern remains the shoulder injury that’s supposedly not an issue? Did his velocity look off ? I thought so . His least accurate day of the year as well . It would be the guys luck to come this far and get hurt .


All that said several reports out today that Seattle is in the process of trying to figure out a deal for Geno long term in the 30 million per range regardless of his performance yesterday . It’s Goff money .

I think it’s gonna wait till season end although there is speculation he may have suitors willing to pay more . Don’t have a link but I read it and said it . Good for Geno whatever happens . For the most part he’s been enjoyable to watch this year .