Trouble in the Desert

[RiverDog]

The Cards picked up the 5th year option on QB Kyler Murray, worth $29.7M, but reports are that Murray will not play under it and wants a new, long term deal, and I'm hearing that his demands are $70M a season.

https://www.nfl.com/news/kyler-murray-n ... w-contract

These quarterback salaries are getting insane.

[Hawktawk]

He might be the next Mayfield . He’s not getting 70 million from anyone . A regular season jitterbug that got crushed first by the sucky Seahawks then a beat down in the WC. As I say I’ve just had it with these prima donnas for whom no amount of money is enough . And no Seattle don’t trade for him.

[RiverDog]

He might be the next Mayfield . He’s not getting 70 million from anyone . A regular season jitterbug that got crushed first by the sucky Seahawks then a beat down in the WC. As I say I’ve just had it with these prima donnas for whom no amount of money is enough . And no Seattle don’t trade for him.

I'm not sure if Mayfield is a good analogy. The Cards claim that they want to get a deal done in June before training camp, so it sounds like he's going to get paid. I agree, I doubt that he'll get $70M, but there's a good chance he can get Watson type of money. I'm sure that Murray and his agent are thinking that if Derek Carr is worth $40, Murray should be worth $45-50M.

$70M is over 30% of the salary cap. 1/3 of the salary cap for one player? Complete madness.

[tarlhawk]

Hope it becomes a trend in our conference...but doubt Jimmy G. overcomes the threat of Trey Lance. Please pay Kyler Murray the moon!

[Hawktawk]

That team is gonna be a popcorn fart in the postseason and increasingly in the regular season as long as he’s there . He’s shorter than Wilson but has a fraction of young Russ football intelligence or poise . He gets an attitude and sulks . He’s a 5’6” Cam Newton waiting to play out . I hope they sign him for 10 years . That’s my bottom feeder in the division . If they start Colt McCoy we will be ready

[Aseahawkfan]

If Pete's strategy works and you can trade your franchise QB and still be competitive, might make other teams follow suit. A guy getting 70 mil a year taking up 30% of the cap is stupid and teams should start pushing back on that big time. Unfortunately it only takes one team to pay to set the market. It clearly shows the only winner in deals like this is the QB who doesn't care about the team winning and neither does his agent.

[NorthHawk]

I think it’s a big swing at the fences for a top contract, but it wouldn’t surprise me
if he draws a hard line at a little more than Watson. At least for a while.

In the longer term, I still think that they will get to some form of Cap exemption or Cap
mitigation strategy for one player on the roster when you consider WR salaries are getting
high as well.

[RiverDog]

I think it’s a big swing at the fences for a top contract, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he draws a hard line at a little more than Watson. At least for a while.

I'd love for Arizona to tell him either play at the 5th year option or sit it out, not because they're in our division, rather I'm tired of seeing one position being so heavily skewed.

In the longer term, I still think that they will get to some form of Cap exemption or Cap mitigation strategy for one player on the roster when you consider WR salaries are getting high as well.

I'd rather see them go the other way. I'd rather they put a cap on what any team can pay one player, say no more than 15% of the salary cap.

[NorthHawk]

The NFLPA would never agree to something that limits salaries. They want a larger share
not a restricted pool and with more income streams these days there should be a larger
pool to share amongst the players. Maybe the salaries won’t seem so high in 5 years as
the Cap grows.

[RiverDog]

The NFLPA would never agree to something that limits salaries. They want a larger share
not a restricted pool and with more income streams these days there should be a larger
pool to share amongst the players. Maybe the salaries won’t seem so high in 5 years as
the Cap grows.

I wouldn't be so sure. Limiting the salary for one player means more money for others. If I'm an offensive guard or a special teams player, I'd vote to restrict the top salary to a certain percentage of the cap. Imagine yourself working for a company that has a fixed amount for payroll. If you're the floor sweeper, would you vote to restrict the salary of the CEO?

[Clem7]

Holy Toledo. Isn’t Lamar Jackson due too?
Let’s Ride Russell chomping at the bit.

[Old but Slow]

Back in what still remains of my memory, I seem to recall that the end of pro football was predicted when the first player was given a $100k contract. How can a team survive if they pay out that kind of money?

In the words of dear old Albert: Everything is relative.

[RiverDog]

Back in what still remains of my memory, I seem to recall that the end of pro football was predicted when the first player was given a $100k contract. How can a team survive if they pay out that kind of money?

In the words of dear old Albert: Everything is relative.

The issue isn't how much total money the team spends. The issue is how it is distributed amongst the players.

[Hawktawk]

Holy Toledo. Isn’t Lamar Jackson due too?
Let’s Ride Russell chomping at the bit.

Let’s ride Russell . Lmao. I think it’s telling Denver has made no move to lock him up
Long term before things get even more absurd .

[Hawktawk]

I think Carr will be become the standard for some teams . 40 is a lot but good grief . You get a good competent player that can make some throws , you surround him with skill players and a good defense and try to win that way . Sure looks like Seattle plans to roll far cheaper . It’s another of a million reasons to root for its success . The only way to stop these astronomical salaries is to prove it can be done another way .

[tarlhawk]

My own opinion is that super large contracts without an off setting rise in total cap ...creates team discord or at least sets a tempting environment for strife and team disunity. There are close to 2500 players whose livelihood depends on fair distribution of cash flow. Fan turnoff already has occurred from past perceptions of "gross entitlement" to "pampered" athletes akin to the disdain some share about well paid celebrities...entertainment's broad spectrum seeded by television/commercialism/social media/marketing in general...over those who serve a vital need to communities (Surgeons/Research/Scientists/Police/Entrepreneurs).

Even if its pure perception a teams locker room chemistry can funnel hatred to those who are highly paid as well as the management (GM in particular) who create (sign-off on) the larger contracts...it creates a focus of "a primadonna" who already gets all the press clippings/fan adulation...special rules to govern their safety (Roughing *sometimes just bumping* the QB/Hitting an "unprotected receiver"). The revolving door of jealousy/pride/ego all fueled by an already disproportionate distribution of cash...many of these huge contracts cause an exodus of players who really liked the team they were on...the larger the individual contract given...the many more "cap hits" denying players a better contract of marginal increase (for most).

Even the concept of an individual being placed above their team mates in a sport that is very team oriented has the risk of negative impact.

[RiverDog]

My own opinion is that super large contracts without an off setting rise in total cap ...creates team discord or at least sets a tempting environment for strife and team disunity. There are close to 2500 players whose livelihood depends on fair distribution of cash flow. Fan turnoff already has occurred from past perceptions of "gross entitlement" to "pampered" athletes akin to the disdain some share about well paid celebrities...entertainment's broad spectrum seeded by television/commercialism/social media/marketing in general...over those who serve a vital need to communities (Surgeons/Research/Scientists/Police/Entrepreneurs).

Even if its pure perception a teams locker room chemistry can funnel hatred to those who are highly paid as well as the management (GM in particular) who create (sign-off on) the larger contracts...it creates a focus of "a primadonna" who already gets all the press clippings/fan adulation...special rules to govern their safety (Roughing *sometimes just bumping* the QB/Hitting an "unprotected receiver"). The revolving door of jealousy/pride/ego all fueled by an already disproportionate distribution of cash...many of these huge contracts cause an exodus of players who really liked the team they were on...the larger the individual contract given...the many more "cap hits" denying players a better contract of marginal increase (for most).

Even the concept of an individual being placed above their team mates in a sport that is very team oriented has the risk of negative impact.

I completely agree. That's one reason why I advocate that a limit be placed on the percentage of payroll given to any one player.

[NorthHawk]

Capping any player to a % or dollar amount will never happen.
The NFLPA looks at it like the top players getting more money means there will be upward pressure on the other positions.
We see it now with WRs getting a lot more than they used to. Expect other positions to begin that move as well. Shutdown
corners are always on that list and DE's get good money, but expect the very best to get a lot more in the near future. It's the
way things are trending.

[mykc14]

$70 mil... jump 40% in positional salary?? Any team that would do something like this is dumb. I would love to say it would never happen but after the contract the Browns gave Watson I believe there are some dumb GM/owners out there. If the Cards were smart they would have traded him this off-season. We'll see what happens, but I'd call his bluff.

[NorthHawk]

$70 mil... jump 40% in positional salary?? Any team that would do something like this is dumb. I would love to say it would never happen but after the contract the Browns gave Watson I believe there are some dumb GM/owners out there. If the Cards were smart they would have traded him this off-season. We'll see what happens, but I'd call his bluff.

Desperate GMs make desperate moves.

[Agent 86]

I'd rather see them go the other way. I'd rather they put a cap on what any team can pay one player, say no more than 15% of the salary cap.

Riv, the NHL has that in place. The minimum contract for a player is $650,000 and the maximum is 20% of the salary cap at the time they sign the deal. That goes for all positions. I would be all in for NFL going that way but doubt it ever happens. But like the idea for sure.

[RiverDog]

I'd rather see them go the other way. I'd rather they put a cap on what any team can pay one player, say no more than 15% of the salary cap.

Riv, the NHL has that in place. The minimum contract for a player is $650,000 and the maximum is 20% of the salary cap at the time they sign the deal. That goes for all positions. I would be all in for NFL going that way but doubt it ever happens. But like the idea for sure.

I wasn't aware of that. Thanks for the info.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the NHL isn't as position centric as the NFL is with the status of their quarterbacks. As Tarlhawk pointed out, there is obviously a lot of animosity between the quarterback and other position players as the QB is perceived as being pampered and many times given preferential treatment (see Aaron Rodgers covid protocol violations). In other words, if the NHL can get a single player cap through their union, certainly the NFL could do the same thing.

[Agent 86]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the NHL isn't as position centric as the NFL is with the status of their quarterbacks. As Tarlhawk pointed out, there is obviously a lot of animosity between the quarterback and other position players as the QB is perceived as being pampered and many times given preferential treatment (see Aaron Rodgers covid protocol violations). In other words, if the NHL can get a single player cap through their union, certainly the NFL could do the same thing.

You are correct, there is no position in hockey that is equal to a QB in football. As of last season 2020-21, here is the Annual Average Salary of the 3 position groups:

Forwards - $2.7 million
Defense - $2.5 million
Goalies - $2.0 million

Centermen are the highest paid, there are 8 making over $10 million and is known as the most important position. There are 3 Right/Left wingers making over $10 million. There are 2 Defensemen making over $10 million. And there are 2 goalies making over $10 million.

Teams had a hard salary cap of $81.5 million (typically a 23 man roster) in 2020-21. So the most a player could make was $16.3 million. The highest paid was Connor McDavid at $12.5 million.

[RiverDog]

You are correct, there is no position in hockey that is equal to a QB in football. As of last season 2020-21, here is the Annual Average Salary of the 3 position groups:

Forwards - $2.7 million
Defense - $2.5 million
Goalies - $2.0 million

Centermen are the highest paid, there are 8 making over $10 million and is known as the most important position. There are 3 Right/Left wingers making over $10 million. There are 2 Defensemen making over $10 million. And there are 2 goalies making over $10 million.

Teams had a hard salary cap of $81.5 million (typically a 23 man roster) in 2020-21. So the most a player could make was $16.3 million. The highest paid was Connor McDavid at $12.5 million.

Of course, the other difference that needs to be factored in is the differences in roster size, with the NHL's 23 men vs. the NFL's 53. If you were to project an NHL-style single player salary cap, an NFL player would be maxed out at about 10% of the cap.

I do think that we have to recognize the star power of the quarterback and that they should be compensated at a higher rate than an offensive guard as without them, the game doesn't attract fans in the same numbers. However, on the other hand, quarterbacks and other high profile players have many more marketing opportunities.

A 13-15% of cap max that a player can be paid seems to me to be a reasonable number.

[NorthHawk]

The NHL is vastly different from the NFL.
The money to be made in the NFL is staggering while the NHL has some struggling franchises so the NHLPA recognizes this and has accommodated the owners
with having a salary cap for single players.
The NFLPA is very aware of the NFL and its money making ability so it encourages players to get as much as they can to increase the other salaries. It's to their
advantage to have big contracts for a player as it sets benchmarks and if we look at the Watson case other QBs now see that contract as something to strive for.
It's kind of like a "Trickle Up" theory.

[RiverDog]

The NHL is vastly different from the NFL.
The money to be made in the NFL is staggering while the NHL has some struggling franchises so the NHLPA recognizes this and has accommodated the owners
with having a salary cap for single players.
The NFLPA is very aware of the NFL and its money making ability so it encourages players to get as much as they can to increase the other salaries. It's to their
advantage to have big contracts for a player as it sets benchmarks and if we look at the Watson case other QBs now see that contract as something to strive for.
It's kind of like a "Trickle Up" theory.

At some point, the NFL's revenue streams are going to peak and start to decline. They're like any other business, subject to increased competition and a changing market place. In 1970, the largest companies in the United States were General Motors, Exxon Mobil, Ford Motors, IBM, and Crysler. Today, the top 5 are Walmart, Amazon, CVS Health, and Exxon Mobil. GM is #20. IBM is #41. KMart and Sears used to be the top retailers. Sears bought out KMart a few years ago and has since filed for bankruptcy.

One of the major reasons why I became a football fan is because I played the sport all the way through my freshman year in college. I suspect that I'm not alone, that many if not most of us are rabid fans due to our having played the sport. High school football participation rates have been on a decade long decline. Safety issues are leading many parents to refuse to let their kids play tackle football. Once our generation starts dying off and is replaced by the Millennials and Gen Y, the NFL's popularity is bound to decline.

https://news.yahoo.com/high-school-foot ... 11eb3e8fb4

My point is that there is no way the league can keep spending money on player salaries like a drunken sailor on a 3 day liberty, and instituting a player maximum is a reasonable governor they can place on what is now a runaway train.

[Agent 86]

The NHL is vastly different from the NFL.
The money to be made in the NFL is staggering while the NHL has some struggling franchises so the NHLPA recognizes this and has accommodated the owners
with having a salary cap for single players.
The NFLPA is very aware of the NFL and its money making ability so it encourages players to get as much as they can to increase the other salaries. It's to their
advantage to have big contracts for a player as it sets benchmarks and if we look at the Watson case other QBs now see that contract as something to strive for.
It's kind of like a "Trickle Up" theory.

Oh for sure North, I definitely wasn't trying to compare the two only letting people know there is a major sport which caps a players earnings based on the salary cap.

I can't remember how it changed, but I know the rookie deals changed in the last while in the NFL after the Jamarcus Russell debacle. That was probably due to the NFLPA listening to their veteran players and can't imagine they were happy with how much unproven rookies were being paid. My point being that there was a major change done there. Not sure if capping a players earnings relative to the cap is something the PA would want, but it would benefit everyone playing except QB's I would think.

[NorthHawk]

I think it was the Jamarcus Russell pick and resulting disaster that was the catalyst for change
but the idea for slotting draft picks had been discussed for years prior and if I recall it was the
veterans who were pushing it.
But I don’t see the same thing for QBs because the players getting the big contracts have proven
they can play at the highest level at the most important position possibly in all of sports.

I still think one Cap exempt player whether it be WR, QB, DE, or other would be one answer, but
I can’t see the Players Union agreeing to limit one players ability to maximize his value so the
owners can take home more.
The Cap exemption would allow teams to structure contracts to take advantage of it and give
them the ability to keep fan favorites instead of having to let them go because of salaries.

[obiken]

There’s no team that’s won a Super Bowl in the modern era when their quarterback is over 13% of the salary cap. For teams to pay a quarterback over 40 million a year to me a suicidal. There’s no way in hell, that you pay Kyler Murray over 30 million he’s not gonna make it.

[c_hawkbob]

There’s no team that’s won a Super Bowl in the modern era when their quarterback is over 13% of the salary cap. For teams to pay a quarterback over 40 million a year to me a suicidal. There’s no way in hell, that you pay Kyler Murray over 30 million he’s not gonna make it.

The percentage of the cap the starter makes shouldn't be the metric, it should be the percentage of the cap for the QB position, including dead cap dedicated to former QB's. That's the list I'd like to see.

[RiverDog]

I can't remember how it changed, but I know the rookie deals changed in the last while in the NFL after the Jamarcus Russell debacle. That was probably due to the NFLPA listening to their veteran players and can't imagine they were happy with how much unproven rookies were being paid. My point being that there was a major change done there. Not sure if capping a players earnings relative to the cap is something the PA would want, but it would benefit everyone playing except QB's I would think.

That's exactly the example I was thinking of, too. If the union were to have followed the "trickle up" logic, they would have never agreed to the contractual limits placed on rookies, and yes, the veteran players were instrumental in getting their union to agree to such a plan.

And North Hawk, I think the straw that broke the camel's back as far as the players were concerned was when the Rams signed Sam Bradford to a ridiculously over paid contract before he had ever taken a snap.

If quarterback salaries keep escalating like they have been recently, don't be surprised if it becomes an issue with the have nots of the rank and file union members.

[Hawktawk]

The Seahawks won a super bowl and went to 2 with a QB making less than a million. And he was efficient but not spectacular with 26 touchdowns and 20 TDs those 2 years . 2014 was Wilson’s least productive of his career statistically . But it was enough until that last play . Those are very similar numbers to Mayfield in 2020. 26 TDs 8 picks about 4 k yards . He went to the second round . Not sure what they paid Stafford but IMO the deal with Watson jumped the shark , particularly the guarantee . You could make a case for Rodgers I suppose although his super bowl win was 13 years ago . Watson has maybe 1 or 2 playoff wins and 22 lawsuits .

Oh well my boys Pete and John are going to do it another way and it’s going to work . We should all root for Seattle taking Geno or Locke and jamming it up the leagues yazoo, maybe bring some of these prima Donna QBs down a peg.

[NorthHawk]

And North Hawk, I think the straw that broke the camel's back as far as the players were concerned was when the Rams signed Sam Bradford to a ridiculously over paid contract before he had ever taken a snap.

Just like Russell.
But the contracts today that we are talking about are for veterans who have proven they can play
well at the NFL level.
Completely different situation.

[NorthHawk]

The Seahawks won a super bowl and went to 2 with a QB making less than a million. And he was efficient but not spectacular with 26 touchdowns and 20 TDs those 2 years . 2014 was Wilson’s least productive of his career statistically . But it was enough until that last play . Those are very similar numbers to Mayfield in 2020. 26 TDs 8 picks about 4 k yards . He went to the second round . Not sure what they paid Stafford but IMO the deal with Watson jumped the shark , particularly the guarantee . You could make a case for Rodgers I suppose although his super bowl win was 13 years ago . Watson has maybe 1 or 2 playoff wins and 22 lawsuits .

Oh well my boys Pete and John are going to do it another way and it’s going to work . We should all root for Seattle taking Geno or Locke and jamming it up the leagues yazoo, maybe bring some of these prima Donna QBs down a peg.

Although his stats weren’t as good, Wilson was able to elevate his game and those around him when needed.
That’s the real value of a franchise QB. Geno and Lock have yet to show they have that ability.

[Hawktawk]

What defined Wilson’s career more than anything was clutch . Make the play that has to be made . It happened so often I was shocked when it stopped happening.

[NorthHawk]

And that's what makes the difference between a good, solid QB and a great QB.
Cousins in Minnesota is a good example. He's a very good QB, but hasn't been able to win the big games for the most part while others like Mahomes and
Rodgers, and Wilson amongst others have proven to be able to do so on more than a few occasions.

[RiverDog]

And that's what makes the difference between a good, solid QB and a great QB.
Cousins in Minnesota is a good example. He's a very good QB, but hasn't been able to win the big games for the most part while others like Mahomes and
Rodgers, and Wilson amongst others have proven to be able to do so on more than a few occasions.

Not that I'm disagreeing, but a number of quarterbacks have had that same criticism leveled at them that later won big games, John Elway and Steve Young being two that come to mind.

[NorthHawk]

But they won SB's, didn't they. Lots of other QB's can't take that step.

[c_hawkbob]

There’s no team that’s won a Super Bowl in the modern era when their quarterback is over 13% of the salary cap. For teams to pay a quarterback over 40 million a year to me a suicidal. There’s no way in hell, that you pay Kyler Murray over 30 million he’s not gonna make it.

The percentage of the cap the starter makes shouldn't be the metric, it should be the percentage of the cap for the QB position, including dead cap dedicated to former QB's. That's the list I'd like to see.

While I haven't found such a list I just saw on NFLN that the reigning SB champion Rams led the way last year in percentage of salary cap devoted to the QB position by a lot.

[Hawktawk]

But they won SB's, didn't they. Lots of other QB's can't take that step.

A lot goes into a championship. A great team or at least some great players on a good team. Luck . Timing , peaking at the right time . Seattle was very good, at the cusp of greatness when we played as a team with the LOB intact . Once they left we have 3 wins in the wildcard and 5 losses , 2 in the wildcard and 3 in the divisional . In the 5 losses we have never held a second half lead in 4 and never led at any point in 3 of them.

Mind you this was a team winning 11-12 regular season games with Russ throwing 30-40 TDs .

So what changed ? Win or go home . What’s the difference between 70 % completion on first and second down and 42%on 3rd down ?
Complete it or punt . Pressure .

You bring up Kirk Cousins and it’s appropriate . I did a lot of research on QBR vs total qbr , trying to understand how a qb can post good individual stats and not win . As I heard an analyst say of Cousins “ you need 8 he gets you 7. Russ had a statistically monster game vs Titans and failed in the end to execute his hallmark 2 minute drive . Same deal vs the Bears , nice stat line , 2 TDs and no picks 110 rating but in the clutch didn’t happen in the end , quite the opposite . As I say I found it shocking this year that he didn’t close the deal with numerous chances like so many times before . We will just have to see about Geno or Locke . I’m not counting them out in this offense with the skill people we have .