Injury Rate By Position

[RiverDog]

I came across a site that did an analysis of the injury rate by position that I thought was worth sharing. It's from back in 2016 so it may not be completely reflective of current conditions, but it is an interesting read and it seems as if it was a well done study. Here's some of the key points:

As shown in the table, the average NFL player has about a 4.1% chance each game of suffering an injury that will prevent them from playing in the following game. The average injury that does cause a player to miss at least 1 game has a mean average length of 3.1 games missed. All told, a typical NFL player can expect to be healthy and available for about 14.2 games out of 16 per season.

Overall, injury rates are fairly consistent across different positions, with a few exceptions. As expected, running backs are at the highest risk of injury, and their injuries average significantly longer in length than any other position. The data shows fullback surprisingly at a low risk, but it is the only position that really has too small a sample size (just 6 injuries) to draw conclusions based on their low usage. Quarterbacks and offensive lineman are least likely to be injured, but the risk for starters at those positions is still similar to other positions as explained below.

Adjusting for Playing Time

At this point, you may be wondering "what good are per game averages if some players are out on the field all game while others sit on the bench?". And you would be right. Iniitally, we intended to analyze the injury rate on a per snap basis. But perhaps the most surprising finding in the whole analysis is that overall, the percentage of snaps a player plays in a game doesn't have much predictive value toward whether they will be injured.

http://www.profootballlogic.com/article ... 20position.

There's a lot more in there if you're interested.

This is one of the reasons why I don't like seeing us spend high draft picks on running backs. Not only are they not on the field as much as other positions, they are much more likely to get injured, and there's no better example than our top two running backs, Carson and Penny. So why spend such rare and valuable draft capital on a player that is likely going to be spending more time in the treatment room than he will on the field?

It's also why I don't share my friend HT's optimism that Penny's last few games of the 2021 season is an accurate predictor of his likely results for this coming season. Even if he plays well, there's a good chance that he'll just get injured again.

[NorthHawk]

Too bad it wasn't a list of injury rates over the last 10 years. It might have given different results or they may be more pronounced in how different the positions are for expected injuries.
I don't see much of a difference between the RB and S or other positions as the predicted lost games are similar. The difference might be that RBs are in a much more vulnerable spot to
get catastrophic injuries and the careers (to me anyway) seem much shorter than some other positions like OL. As well, it seems to me that the better the players, the fewer the injuries.
So I wouldn't concern myself with not taking a difference maker early no matter what position.

[tarlhawk]

This is not a "strange" phenomena...its pure physics involving impact collisions. A fullback collides with a clear view of where the impact is likely to occur...but the NFL running back (especially once into LB roaming territory) is subject to impact collisions from various angles to various levels of his body/legs. Between the tackles offer the most variables while an outside burst along the sidelines cuts down the backs exposure. Defenders are at risk based on their speed and body angle attack on any ball holder (RB/WR) being optimized at moment of impact...some of the scariest team observed impacts were between Sherman and either Earl or Kam. Your linemen suffer not so much from the speed of impact but from the actual weight involved...even purely from falling on top or beneath a lineman from the opponents side or your own. Your more serious injuries involve the tearing of muscles due to sudden planting of feet or change of direction. Most of these injuries avoided by proper conditioning and proper warm-up that all athletes are educated on...

[Hawktawk]

I came across a site that did an analysis of the injury rate by position that I thought was worth sharing. It's from back in 2016 so it may not be completely reflective of current conditions, but it is an interesting read and it seems as if it was a well done study. Here's some of the key points:

As shown in the table, the average NFL player has about a 4.1% chance each game of suffering an injury that will prevent them from playing in the following game. The average injury that does cause a player to miss at least 1 game has a mean average length of 3.1 games missed. All told, a typical NFL player can expect to be healthy and available for about 14.2 games out of 16 per season.

Overall, injury rates are fairly consistent across different positions, with a few exceptions. As expected, running backs are at the highest risk of injury, and their injuries average significantly longer in length than any other position. The data shows fullback surprisingly at a low risk, but it is the only position that really has too small a sample size (just 6 injuries) to draw conclusions based on their low usage. Quarterbacks and offensive lineman are least likely to be injured, but the risk for starters at those positions is still similar to other positions as explained below.

Adjusting for Playing Time

At this point, you may be wondering "what good are per game averages if some players are out on the field all game while others sit on the bench?". And you would be right. Iniitally, we intended to analyze the injury rate on a per snap basis. But perhaps the most surprising finding in the whole analysis is that overall, the percentage of snaps a player plays in a game doesn't have much predictive value toward whether they will be injured.

http://www.profootballlogic.com/article ... 20position.

There's a lot more in there if you're interested.

This is one of the reasons why I don't like seeing us spend high draft picks on running backs. Not only are they not on the field as much as other positions, they are much more likely to get injured, and there's no better example than our top two running backs, Carson and Penny. So why spend such rare and valuable draft capital on a player that is likely going to be spending more time in the treatment room than he will on the field?

It's also why I don't share my friend HT's optimism that Penny's last few games of the 2021 season is an accurate predictor of his likely results for this coming season. Even if he plays well, there's a good chance that he'll just get injured again.

Penney was injury free his entire career until his devastating knee injury in late 2019. He was running full speed down the sideline and some pussy defensive back targeted his knee . Then a year and a half rehabbing and the pulls and sprains associated with recovering and compensating . Early in the year with him being given a carry here and there I thought the burst was gone . Then he had the game vs the 9ers where I saw the burst and I said right here “ watch out for Penney “ look River I’ve never said I’m convinced of anything except Penney is a generational type back who clearly possessed first round talent and was no reach . He was misused as a change of pace guy but still had 3 100 yard games splitting carries with Carson. Speaking of which he isn’t looking promising with the neck. Seattle got him cheap because he did have a significant injury history . It’s the game of IF. IF Penney is healthy he learned how to run already so he will be real good . He’s the second Seahawks offensive player I’ve seen beat Buhdda Baker in a footrace. He’s a minimum 1500 yards 15 TD guy if healthy no matter whose handing off . Just like IF Geno puts up the numbers he did last year over 17 games he’s a pro bowler . IF. If Locke beats him out I think we are a more dangerous team offensively . IF. There’s plenty of backs who play a long time . Alexander who I would compare to Penney had that slippery north south subtle moves use your blocks style . Not as punishing as Carson or Lynch although Lynch was more elusive than he gets credit for .
Injuries are luck . Like Curt Warner blowing a knee tripping over the rug in the Kingdome . That might have been a Super Bowl team . Fingers crossed. If my IFs become reality there’s gonna be some surprised people .

[Aseahawkfan]

Not surprising. RB position is just brutal.

I sometimes look at the RBs and think these dudes have to be nuts. Your job is basically to run into a pack of 300 lb. plus men in a violent scrum, then into a second layer of 240 plus pound men trying to smash you as hard as they can, with the only relief getting into the secondary where the guys are finally smaller than you and you get to hit them. You gotta have a crazy mentality to be an NFL RB and good blockers. Nightmare job. That's why Marshawn was so amazing. That dude ran into the battle and pounded his way through it. He was a modern day barbarian.

[RiverDog]

Not surprising. RB position is just brutal.

I sometimes look at the RBs and think these dudes have to be nuts. Your job is basically to run into a pack of 300 lb. plus men in a violent scrum, then into a second layer of 240 plus pound men trying to smash you as hard as they can, with the only relief getting into the secondary where the guys are finally smaller than you and you get to hit them. You gotta have a crazy mentality to be an NFL RB and good blockers. Nightmare job. That's why Marshawn was so amazing. That dude ran into the battle and pounded his way through it. He was a modern day barbarian.

The only major injury that I can recall Beast having was a sports hernia, and that's an injury that isn't really a football injury (I had one in my 50's). As violent as he ran, Lynch never got injured much. He had one of the widest running styles, ran almost like a duck, which accounted for his balance, but I'm not sure if that had anything to do with is lack of injuries. Beast was a freak in more ways than one.

Bottom line is that the position is IMO too injury prone to be putting all your eggs in one basket by committing high draft picks to them.

[tarlhawk]

This is not a "strange" phenomena...its pure physics involving impact collisions. A fullback collides with a clear view of where the impact is likely to occur...but the NFL running back (especially once into LB roaming territory) is subject to impact collisions from various angles to various levels of his body/legs. Between the tackles offer the most variables while an outside burst along the sidelines cuts down the backs exposure. Defenders are at risk based on their speed and body angle attack on any ball holder (RB/WR) being optimized at moment of impact...some of the scariest team observed impacts were between Sherman and either Earl or Kam. Your linemen suffer not so much from the speed of impact but from the actual weight involved...even purely from falling on top or beneath a lineman from the opponents side or your own. Your more serious injuries involve the tearing of muscles due to sudden planting of feet or change of direction. Most of these injuries avoided by proper conditioning and proper warm-up that all athletes are educated on...

Production (stat accumulation) whether in college or in the NFL is a good indicator of a players dedication to conditioning. Hard to create any meaningful stats if sitting on the bench injured. Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson were strong role models in their game prep and off season maintaining of a lifetime pattern of readiness. Lynch was reported to work out in high altitude seclusion during off season which improved stamina and proper breathing/lung capacity...a unique brute of a man. Marshawn's running in space was often elusive...he avoided many punishing tackles.

[NorthHawk]

The only major injury that I can recall Beast having was a sports hernia, and that's an injury that isn't really a football injury (I had one in my 50's). As violent as he ran, Lynch never got injured much. He had one of the widest running styles, ran almost like a duck, which accounted for his balance, but I'm not sure if that had anything to do with is lack of injuries. Beast was a freak in more ways than one.

Bottom line is that the position is IMO too injury prone to be putting all your eggs in one basket by committing high draft picks to them.

Lynch had a real subtle way of moving just before impact that meant he rarely took huge hits. It also allowed him to break a large amount of tackles.

[RiverDog]

Good points about Beast's unique running style. He had the widest running stance of any ball carrier I've ever seen, sort of ran like a duck, which led to his incredible balance and ability to stay on his feet. It's quite possible that his unique running style helped him avoid serious injuries by keeping his center of gravity from getting ahead of him, which reduced the stress on his knees.

[NorthHawk]

Luke Kuechley (sp) just said Lynch was the hardest player for him to tackle fwiw.

[Hawktawk]

Beast mode missed the Cleveland game in 2011 with back spasms and maybe the next one vs Cincy . I think he worked through back issues throughout his career but didn’t miss many games. He was elusive in the phone booth between the tackles but he ran the F directly over lots of guys too. Remarkably he played at 216 lbs but seemed much bigger . HOF first ballot or it’s a complete farce .
I based much of my optimism on Penney and the gamble he will stay healthy . With Walker III another explosive dr house call I have less worry of a sustainable dominant run game . And for the line detractors two words . Phil Haynes. He’s the nastiest guard we have had since Hutchinson and he was the engine to
Penney’s caboose on many long runs . One would assume walker could exploit that as well .
We will put up at least 2 k rushing as a team . Probably more .

[NorthHawk]

The OL is the key and the biggest concern and mystery. Who is going to start on the edges?
2 rookies are going to have a serious learning curve and the iol is also changing. It’s going
to take a while to get it together, maybe most of the season. But if they want to get it settled
those guy have to play. And that means a lot of mistakes. I’m not even talking yet about the
OL working together, which is another project on its own.

Considering our OTs consist of Cross, Currhan, Forsythe, and Lucas it wouldn’t surprise me if
we picked up a veteran OT at some point if only to settle them down and show them how to be
a pro.

If (and at this point it’s a big if) Waldron is able to put in his Offense and it’s based on
principles from McVay, the edges will be very important. That means the OTs who are rookies
will be under pressure to get it right.
If they run Pete’s Offense it won’t be as important as it’s more north/south than east/west.