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I've been watching the Presidential polls and have wondered just how accurate they are or will be in the upcoming 2020 election. In 2016, the majority of the polls nailed the popular vote to well within their customary 3% margin of error, but there were problems in some of the critical battleground states, namely PA, MI, an WI, that led to Donald Trump's upset win after many pundits assigned chance of winning percentage to Hillary of 80-90%. So what went wrong?

One answer to that question is what pollsters call a non response bias. Basically it says that there are certain groups, such as uneducated males over 50, that will not answer the phone, or if they do, are not inclined to engage in a conversation with a stranger or a robo caller, or they may not own a phone at all.

There's also the possibility of respondents not answering honestly, that they may be embarrassed to support one candidate or the other and only in the privacy of the ballot booth do they express their preference for a certain candidate.

A third problem is that of likely voters. With 40% or so of those eligible not casting their vote, it can influence the results if pollsters aren't able to identify those that will actually show up to the polls.

So why are state polls so difficult to get right? First off, there are fewer polls taken in states vs nation wide, and many of those that are out there are new to the game and can be very volatile. Many are run by local newspapers, which have come under intense budgetary pressure. They want results to publish but they don't want to have to pay a fortune to do it right. Another issue is that the data pollsters use to weigh their results is unreliable. Most use census results, which are performed every 10 years and can vary from county to county. Cell phone coverage is generally more reliable in the big cities than it is in rural areas. The nation has become increasingly more divided by rural vs. urban than it ever has in the past, which magnifies the errors produced as a result of these biases, especially when performed on a smaller scale like they are in state wide polling.

The biases, if quantified, can be accounted for in a poll result. For example, if I know that Trump voters are 50% less likely to answer the phone than Biden voters, I can factor that information into a prediction model and adjust for a non response bias. If I know that a 70 year old retired person is 50% more likely to show up and cast their vote and that older people tend to favor Trump, I can factor in a likely voter component into the equation.

This election cycle is even more complicated by the coronavirus crisis. Will Biden voters, generally more concerned about contracting/spreading the disease, less likely to turn out than the disbelieving Trump voters? Or will those that are older, ie Trump supporters, and more susceptible to the disease stay home? Will the sudden increase in racial discrimination awareness motivate black and minority voters, generally pro Biden, to turn out in November or will they stay home like they did in 2016? Will certain voters tend to take advantage of mail in balloting measures that are being adapted?

Anyhow, it's just some thoughts I've had on the subject. The poll numbers look horrible for Trump, but how accurate are they in predicting election results, especially this election, which will be unprecedented in the history of our nation as we've never before held an election during a pandemic.

I think the two most important things in accurate polls are what you touched on, namely the questions asked and
the audience that responds.
Often times the people that do respond are those that are angry about the topic and can vent. And questions can
lead to a result that could differ from the respondents true viewpoint.
For instance, the questions could be asked in such a way that the answers point to the respondent being against DJT,
but it doesn't take into account historical voting for that person or what that person thinks about the challenger.
If they are done correctly with proper questions that cover those and other things, they could be accurate - if like you
said the person responding it telling the whole truth. There's a reason we have a secret ballot and many don't want to
give up their personal intentions come voting time. So there is always going to be a measure of doubt with polls.

Another thing occurred to me and that is the time between when the poll was taken and the results quantified and what
might have happened in those couple of weeks. With a guy like Trump, he could lose a lot of support or gain a lot just
by his actions. More than any other politician that I can remember.

NorthHawk wrote:I think the two most important things in accurate polls are what you touched on, namely the questions asked and
the audience that responds. Often times the people that do respond are those that are angry about the topic and can vent. And questions can lead to a result that could differ from the respondents true viewpoint. For instance, the questions could be asked in such a way that the answers point to the respondent being against DJT, but it doesn't take into account historical voting for that person or what that person thinks about the challenger. If they are done correctly with proper questions that cover those and other things, they could be accurate - if like you said the person responding it telling the whole truth. There's a reason we have a secret ballot and many don't want to give up their personal intentions come voting time. So there is always going to be a measure of doubt with polls.

You're talking about opinion polls, which are quite a bit different than polling that asks a very simple question: If the vote were held today, who would you vote for: Donald Trump or Joe Biden? Same thing with Presidential job approval polls: Do you approve of the job Donald Trump is doing? The very same question, exactly worded, has been asked of respondents regarding various presidents for the past 60 years.

NorthHawk wrote:Another thing occurred to me and that is the time between when the poll was taken and the results quantified and what might have happened in those couple of weeks. With a guy like Trump, he could lose a lot of support or gain a lot just
by his actions. More than any other politician that I can remember.

Actually Trump's polling numbers have remained amazingly consistent throughout his entire presidency, never dipping below 40%..Nixon and Truman both had approval numbers in the 20's at one point in their presidency.. and never going above 50%...Clinton, Reagan, Obama, and both Bushes all had at least at one point during their time where approval ratings were above 65%. The obvious implication is that the vast majority of people have their opinions of Trump set in concrete.

But I do agree with you regarding the timing of polls. They vary widely and often times are conducted throughout the course of several days or a week and don't completely capture events during the interim. That's one of the reasons why I tend to put more weight in the RCP average as they take results from multiple polls and do so on a daily basis so anomalies like that one tend to come out in the wash. It also allows for tracking via trend lines over a period of time rather than the snap shot by a single poll.

Right now they overwhelmingly favor Biden and growing everyday. I look at 538 daily and Trumps cratering, especially the disapprove #When it was reported Biden has surged past trump in fundraising its an even bigger deal because the bankrupt billionaire cant self finance any more than last time. But that's a big canary in a coal mine. I think Trumps losing bad right now, i just hope we are a functioning country by NOV. US travel has been BANNED BY THE EU due to "coronavirus failures" and the trumpanzees are going to hold another rally in AZ, one of the hardest spiking states. We are being led by a madman...https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... li=BBnbfcL but he wants to prove how much more cognizant than Joe Biden he is

[quote="RiverDog"]I've been watching the Presidential polls and have wondered just how accurate they are or will be in the upcoming 2020 election. In 2016, the majority of the polls nailed the popular vote to well within their customary 3% margin of error, but there were problems in some of the critical battleground states, namely PA, MI, an WI, that led to Donald Trump's upset win after many pundits assigned chance of winning percentage to Hillary of 80-90%. So what went wrong?

Russia. Russia went wrong. That's where all the sharing of polling data, the digital misinformation plan campaign operated. Critical swing states. Mueller revealed Paul Manafort and Rick Gates exchanged battleground PRECINCT BY PRECINCT polling data with a Putin ally in a cigar bar in NY owned by Jared Kushner . Recent redactions show that Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, Micheal Cohen all testified the president had been given a heads up by Roger Stone of Wiki leaks releases of Hacks by russian intelligence. It's been revealed they were able to hack into voter rolls in several states during 2016 including one florida country that went for Trump 75%-25%.As i've said Mueller went way too easy on trump, probably was in the clamps of Barr already. Anyone who doesn't think the weight of all those influences wasn't worth the approximately 70 thousand total votes Trump *won by* in critical states is just delusional. Minus an end to voting machines and an all mail system polls dont really matter because there is no way to trust the system anymore.

RiverDog wrote:I've been watching the Presidential polls and have wondered just how accurate they are or will be in the upcoming 2020 election. In 2016, the majority of the polls nailed the popular vote to well within their customary 3% margin of error, but there were problems in some of the critical battleground states, namely PA, MI, an WI, that led to Donald Trump's upset win after many pundits assigned chance of winning percentage to Hillary of 80-90%. So what went wrong?

Hawktawk wrote:Russia. Russia went wrong. That's where all the sharing of polling data, the digital misinformation plan campaign operated. Critical swing states. Mueller revealed Paul Manafort and Rick Gates exchanged battleground PRECINCT BY PRECINCT polling data with a Putin ally in a cigar bar in NY owned by Jared Kushner . Recent redactions show that Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, Micheal Cohen all testified the president had been given a heads up by Roger Stone of Wiki leaks releases of Hacks by russian intelligence. It's been revealed they were able to hack into voter rolls in several states during 2016 including one florida country that went for Trump 75%-25%.As i've said Mueller went way too easy on trump, probably was in the clamps of Barr already. Anyone who doesn't think the weight of all those influences wasn't worth the approximately 70 thousand total votes Trump *won by* in critical states is just delusional. Minus an end to voting machines and an all mail system polls dont really matter because there is no way to trust the system anymore.

I don't agree. If it were due to Russian influence, the nation wide polls would have been off, but they were right on the mark, with nearly all of them nailing the popular results to within their margin of error.

The most egregious errors were committed by analysts that gave odds that Hillary had a 90% chance or so of winning. I have no idea how they arrived at those conclusions. You can't blame the Russians for that.

Hawktawk wrote:Right now they overwhelmingly favor Biden and growing everyday. I look at 538 daily and Trumps cratering, especially the disapprove #When it was reported Biden has surged past trump in fundraising its an even bigger deal because the bankrupt billionaire cant self finance any more than last time. But that's a big canary in a coal mine. I think Trumps losing bad right now, i just hope we are a functioning country by NOV. US travel has been BANNED BY THE EU due to "coronavirus failures" and the trumpanzees are going to hold another rally in AZ, one of the hardest spiking states. We are being led by a madman...https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... li=BBnbfcL but he wants to prove how much more cognizant than Joe Biden he is

Trump is in much worse shape now than he was at the same point in the cycle vs. Hillary in 2016. And it's not just the polls where warning signs are obvious. There's tangible evidence that his base is beginning to falter. The primary election for the NC House seat vacated by Trump's new Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, a Congressional district Trump won by 17 points in 2016, went to a 24 year old challenger by a huge 31% margin over the candidate that received Trump's enthusiastic endorsement.

I doubt that he stays that far behind as the R's have built up a huge war chest and haven't yet begun to attack Biden, but he has a lot of ground to make up, and this time I get the feeling that a lot of potential voters have been permanently turned off by his rhetoric or, particularly for the many black voters that sat out 2016, a reason to turn out against him. Although I'm not making any predictions, if I were to make a bet today, I'd bet that Trump loses by a margin similar to Romney's loss to Obama in 2012: Over a 100 electoral vote and 5% popular vote margin. Not a landslide but certainly not an election that can be challenged with any degree of credibility.

The one thing that can change the current trend is the economy. People tend to excuse the bomb throwing and self adulation if the country is doing relatively well. But I don't think that the economy rebounds to the kind of level necessary to make a decisive impact on the election until they come up with a vaccine, and there's virtually no chance that happens by the first week of November. To the contrary, things look to be getting worse. Hospitals in some states are at or very near capacity and governors are being confronted with the possibility of another shutdown and stay at home order.

RiverDog wrote:
Russia went wrong. mail system polls dont really matter because there is no way to trust the system anymore.

I don't agree. If it were due to Russian influence, the nation wide polls would have been off, but they were right on the mark, with nearly all of them nailing the popular results to within their margin of error.

The most egregious errors were committed by analysts that gave odds that Hillary had a 90% chance or so of winning. I have no idea how they arrived at those conclusions. You can't blame the Russians for that.

If votes were changed, deleted or fake names added to rolls the polls WOULD BE OFF IN CRITICAL SWING STATES HE WON BY PERCENTAGES OF A POINT.They clearly were and the rest of the country proves it.As I said Manfort and the Russians along with Jarred Kushner were looking at battleground precinct by precinct in those states according to sworn testimony from Paul manafort and Rick Gates among others and they were sharing it with a russian intelligence operative and Oligarch.

Clearly there was a coordinated all out effort to elect Trump and anyone who thinks they DIDN'T at least ATTEMPT to manufacture or change votes as a key part of that is stupid, flat out.A few votes here and a few there and viola a razor thin believable victory until news of russia broke.US intelligence captured audio of Russian intelligence cheering and saying ""america is ours"

IMO whatever Russia was able to do in 2016 explains the freak out by trump about all mail voting.Foreign manipulation of our ballots is the only chance he has right now.I dont trust our government when they say they have no evidence russia changed votes. I definitely dont trust a foreign adversary with the cyber ability Russia has, the spying capability. And they are getting exactly what they want from this rube, Putin's C@9holster in every meaningful sense of the word. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... -BB160RXXt

Trump has not responded to Russia in any way and denied having knowledge of this. And they wonder why I want to vomit when this traitor to Russia hugs a flag.
As I say its time for the military to intervene. Hes letting troops be killed on Russian orders rather than anger his puppet master.

Hawktawk wrote:If votes were changed, deleted or fake names added to rolls the polls WOULD BE OFF IN CRITICAL SWING STATES HE WON BY PERCENTAGES OF A POINT.They clearly were and the rest of the country proves it.As I said Manfort and the Russians along with Jarred Kushner were looking at battleground precinct by precinct in those states according to sworn testimony from Paul manafort and Rick Gates among others and they were sharing it with a russian intelligence operative and Oligarch.

Clearly there was a coordinated all out effort to elect Trump and anyone who thinks they DIDN'T at least ATTEMPT to manufacture or change votes as a key part of that is stupid, flat out.A few votes here and a few there and viola a razor thin believable victory until news of russia broke.US intelligence captured audio of Russian intelligence cheering and saying ""america is ours"

IMO whatever Russia was able to do in 2016 explains the freak out by trump about all mail voting.Foreign manipulation of our ballots is the only chance he has right now.I dont trust our government when they say they have no evidence russia changed votes. I definitely dont trust a foreign adversary with the cyber ability Russia has, the spying capability. And they are getting exactly what they want from this rube, Putin's C@9holster in every meaningful sense of the word. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... -BB160RXXt

Trump has not responded to Russia in any way and denied having knowledge of this. And they wonder why I want to vomit when this traitor to Russia hugs a flag.
As I say its time for the military to intervene. Hes letting troops be killed on Russian orders rather than anger his puppet master.

If it was easy to manipulate votes by a foreign power, we would be having a foreign elected president every election. Many nations have the power to hack votes and the will. Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia would hack our voting system every election. Plenty of resources to accomplish this if it were that easy.

Russia as the boogey man is just Democrat BS. Russia is a nation in decline. Their population is shrinking. Their prominence on the world stage is overshadowed by China. Plenty of other nations are more economically powerful. They just aren't the scary nation they once her. If Russia were as terrible as the Dems claim, the Europeans wouldn't be doing so much business with them.

Just vote Dumb as Dirt out in November. Even Old as Dirt Biden can't do a worse job than Dumb as Dirt.

Hawktawk wrote:If votes were changed, deleted or fake names added to rolls the polls WOULD BE OFF IN CRITICAL SWING STATES HE WON BY PERCENTAGES OF A POINT.They clearly were and the rest of the country proves it.As I said Manfort and the Russians along with Jarred Kushner were looking at battleground precinct by precinct in those states according to sworn testimony from Paul manafort and Rick Gates among others and they were sharing it with a russian intelligence operative and Oligarch.

The only testimony that Manafort gave with regard to Russian election interference is that he shared some polling data with them. There was nothing regarding stuffing ballot boxes or tampering with the results.

Hawktawk wrote:Clearly there was a coordinated all out effort to elect Trump and anyone who thinks they DIDN'T at least ATTEMPT to manufacture or change votes as a key part of that is stupid, flat out.A few votes here and a few there and viola a razor thin believable victory until news of russia broke.US intelligence captured audio of Russian intelligence cheering and saying ""america is ours"

I don't think that there is any doubt that Russia interfered with our election process and that they had a clear preference for DJT. But I don't see any evidence whatsoever that they successfully added or deleted votes to any candidate's total.

Hawktawk wrote:As I say its time for the military to intervene. Hes letting troops be killed on Russian orders rather than anger his puppet master.

So you're advocating that the military intervene and overthrow the POTUS? Eee gads, HT! We have a little over 4 months until the election and about 7 months until Biden's inauguration. Hang in there!

Hawktawk wrote:As I say its time for the military to intervene. Hes letting troops be killed on Russian orders rather than anger his puppet master.

Riverdog,

The fact that anyone believes this "new" story with little substantiation shows the clear power of the media when combined with psychosis against the individual the media is attacking. We are clearly no longer a Democracy, but a media-manipulated oligarchy. And that is unfortunate.

I think if this COVID19 lock down has proven anything it is that the media has more power to manipulate the masses than the government, both right and left. Even politicians are unable to control what many of these psychotics believe and want to act upon.

Right now hawktawk is advocating a military takeover via the military after reading a barely substantiated story. Just be happy the people running these organizations aren't as whacked out as the people running the government other than Dumb as Dirt, who the loons elected.

Hawktawk wrote:As I say its time for the military to intervene. Hes letting troops be killed on Russian orders rather than anger his puppet master.

Aseahawkfan wrote:
Riverdog,

The fact that anyone believes this "new" story with little substantiation shows the clear power of the media when combined with psychosis against the individual the media is attacking. We are clearly no longer a Democracy, but a media-manipulated oligarchy. And that is unfortunate.

I think if this COVID19 lock down has proven anything it is that the media has more power to manipulate the masses than the government, both right and left. Even politicians are unable to control what many of these psychotics believe and want to act upon.

Right now hawktawk is advocating a military takeover via the military after reading a barely substantiated story. Just be happy the people running these organizations aren't as whacked out as the people running the government other than Dumb as Dirt, who the loons elected.

There's too much information, especially in these times when there isn't much else for the media to report on. I'm not necessarily speaking of HT, but there's literally a story for every person, some credible and some not, that you can choose one to fit your beliefs. You don't like wearing a mask? No problem, here's a story saying that they're ineffective controlling the spread of COVID or that they deprive one of oxygen.

I am quite confident of our military leaders ability to keep things in perspective, more so than I am of elected politicians.

The fact that anyone whose intellect I usually respect believes the Trumpworld version of events over the media blows me away. Seems his attack on the media's credibility has had it's intended effect.

Trump is having more problems than the COVID crisis. There's a report being circulated that the Russians were offering bounties to the Taliban to kill American soldiers and Trump was told about it as far back as early 2019. The White House is in full retreat, insisting that the POTUS was never briefed on the intelligence. Lawmakers from both parties are wanting answers.

Then there's the problem with Trump's re-tweeting of a video showing a supporter making a racist gesture that he took down a few hours after he tweeted it and although it's plausible to think that he hadn't seen the gesture before he tweeted it, neither Trump or his surrogates have denounce it. Then there's his tweet of a video showing armed white residents waving guns and threatening peaceful protesters with deadly force. General Mattis is exactly right. Trump doesn't even pretend to unite the nation and heal wounds. It's not in his playbook.

There's a new poll out, from Idahawkman's favorite polling organization Rasmussen, showing an alarming result for an incumbent President with a whopping 45 point difference, 69% to 24%, in response to the question whether the country is on the right track or wrong track. Obviously not every respondent is going to hang the blame on Trump, but it's not news his campaign wants to hear. They're going to be playing a lot of defense this fall.

Biden doesn't even have to leave his basement to win this election. Trump is self destructing. His obsession with Twitter is taking him down. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

c_hawkbob wrote:The fact that anyone whose intellect I usually respect believes the Trumpworld version of events over the media blows me away. Seems his attack on the media's credibility has had it's intended effect.

If you're not reading the media right and left with a grain of salt, then I don't know what to tell you. I have never developed an opinion based on information from the media. I find the media grossly negligent before the Trump coined the phrase "Fake News." I find them to be divisive and self-serving in their interests. I don't even consider them "fake", so much as agenda driven and highly politicized. You can't trust someone with an agenda as that will color their viewpoint. You have to look at what they're trying to do, then investigate their information as deeply as you can.

You yourself call Fox News "Faux News", so not sure why you think the left wing media is any better. The media is at best a starting point for investigation, not an ending point as far too many people use it. These modern mainstream news stations are terrible.

So please do not believe Trump somehow made me view the media the way I do. He had zero to do with it. You after all these years of watching me post over 20 years should know I don't get my information from the media, mainstream or otherwise. I have equal distrust of Fox News, CNBC, or CNN. I don't trust Trump or his sources. Or the crap like Idhawkmen reads. Or the liberal crap I read.

You know as well as I do that there are so many agenda driven media sources right now that you can't trust many of them on either side. Only way you're going to get to any kind of facts or truth is looking at some claim, then digging deeper using non-media sources.

Which is why I post Youtube channels like Medcram, an apolitical channel providing raw information absent an agenda other than to provide information on COVID19 and other medical matters. That's the best type of source. No agenda. No politics. Just here is the information we have available.

RiverDog wrote:Trump is having more problems than the COVID crisis. There's a report being circulated that the Russians were offering bounties to the Taliban to kill American soldiers and Trump was told about it as far back as early 2019. The White House is in full retreat, insisting that the POTUS was never briefed on the intelligence. Lawmakers from both parties are wanting answers.

Then there's the problem with Trump's re-tweeting of a video showing a supporter making a racist gesture that he took down a few hours after he tweeted it and although it's plausible to think that he hadn't seen the gesture before he tweeted it, neither Trump or his surrogates have denounce it. Then there's his tweet of a video showing armed white residents waving guns and threatening peaceful protesters with deadly force. General Mattis is exactly right. Trump doesn't even pretend to unite the nation and heal wounds. It's not in his playbook.

There's a new poll out, from Idahawkman's favorite polling organization Rasmussen, showing an alarming result for an incumbent President with a whopping 45 point difference, 69% to 24%, in response to the question whether the country is on the right track or wrong track. Obviously not every respondent is going to hang the blame on Trump, but it's not news his campaign wants to hear. They're going to be playing a lot of defense this fall.

Biden doesn't even have to leave his basement to win this election. Trump is self destructing. His obsession with Twitter is taking him down. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

Dumb as Dirt Donald is in way over his head at this point. I'll never forget his, "You loot, we shoot" tweet. Or his talk of "slowing down testing because we'll fine corona virus cases." How dumb do you have to be to not want to find virus cases and make sure people know they might spread this to someone vulnerable? That was so dumb that I find it hard for anyone to defend it. If you're defending that dumb comment, you''re dumb yourself.

Then posting a video of two black men hitting a white person and asking why no protests? Protests of what? Protest all black men because a couple of criminals beat someone else? What kind of idiot to you have to be to post this?

Dumb as Dirt Donald is ridiculous. Even Dumb as DIrt wins re-election, enough Americans will ignore him, march against him, and resist him that it will send this nation into chaos. Dumb as Dirt needs to go, so this nation can obtain a leader who doesn't want to protect Confederates, ask for people to protest a particular race, encourage "domination" in the streets, and invite a total all out resistance to Dumb as Dirt from the politicians to the people.

Biden better pick a halfway decent Vice Presidential candidate to seal the deal against Dumb as Dirt. He picks a bad VP and Dumb as Dirt might pull this out leading to four years of chaos I can't even imagine at this point.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Dumb as Dirt Donald is in way over his head at this point. I'll never forget his, "You loot, we shoot" tweet. Or his talk of "slowing down testing because we'll fine corona virus cases." How dumb do you have to be to not want to find virus cases and make sure people know they might spread this to someone vulnerable? That was so dumb that I find it hard for anyone to defend it. If you're defending that dumb comment, you''re dumb yourself.

Then posting a video of two black men hitting a white person and asking why no protests? Protests of what? Protest all black men because a couple of criminals beat someone else? What kind of idiot to you have to be to post this?

Dumb as Dirt Donald is ridiculous. Even Dumb as DIrt wins re-election, enough Americans will ignore him, march against him, and resist him that it will send this nation into chaos. Dumb as Dirt needs to go, so this nation can obtain a leader who doesn't want to protect Confederates, ask for people to protest a particular race, encourage "domination" in the streets, and invite a total all out resistance to Dumb as Dirt from the politicians to the people.

Biden better pick a halfway decent Vice Presidential candidate to seal the deal against Dumb as Dirt. He picks a bad VP and Dumb as Dirt might pull this out leading to four years of chaos I can't even imagine at this point.

I'm beginning to wonder if Trump doesn't care whether or not he gets re-elected. He's completely out of touch with the overwhelming sentiment of the COVID crisis regarding this mask thing that he's decided to turn into a referendum on his management of the crisis. In a recent poll, nearly 90% of Americans say that they are wearing one in public. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, VP Mike Pence, even Trump's biggest boot licking friend in the media Shawn Hannity have gotten on board and advocated wearing masks when they are in public and can't maintain social distancing, but Trump has yet to come out and support wearing them let alone set an example and don one himself.

This Friday, Trump is making a trip to Mt. Rushmore for a fireworks celebration where social distancing and mask wearing will be optional despite the event's website saying that participants will be "...in close contact for an extended amount of time”. Due to dry conditions and concerns about wildfires, there hasn't been any 4th of July fireworks at the landmark for over a decade, and this season appears no different, with Forest Service managers from 6 districts near the monument calling it unwise.

The EU recently relaxed travel restrictions from a number of countries, including Japan, South Korea, and even China, but not the United States. That has to be a poke in the eye to Trump to have citizens from his rival and main punching bag in the crisis be allowed to travel but not us.

Biden made one of his few public appearances yesterday and claimed that our wartime President has surrendered to the COVID crisis. I have to agree.

RiverDog wrote:I'm beginning to wonder if Trump doesn't care whether or not he gets re-elected. He's completely out of touch with the overwhelming sentiment of the COVID crisis regarding this mask thing that he's decided to turn into a referendum on his management of the crisis. In a recent poll, nearly 90% of Americans say that they are wearing one in public. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, VP Mike Pence, even Trump's biggest boot licking friend in the media Shawn Hannity have gotten on board and advocated wearing masks when they are in public and can't maintain social distancing, but Trump has yet to come out and support wearing them let alone set an example and don one himself.

This Friday, Trump is making a trip to Mt. Rushmore for a fireworks celebration where social distancing and mask wearing will be optional despite the event's website saying that participants will be "...in close contact for an extended amount of time”. Due to dry conditions and concerns about wildfires, there hasn't been any 4th of July fireworks at the landmark for over a decade, and this season appears no different, with Forest Service managers from 6 districts near the monument calling it unwise.

The EU recently relaxed travel restrictions from a number of countries, including Japan, South Korea, and even China, but not the United States. That has to be a poke in the eye to Trump to have citizens from his rival and main punching bag in the crisis be allowed to travel but not us.

Biden made one of his few public appearances yesterday and claimed that our wartime President has surrendered to the COVID crisis. I have to agree.

I know more than a few folks who think Biden has zero chance of winning. They think Biden appears senile and weak and will be look even worse once Biden and Trump go head to head. I know if Biden picks a bad VP candidate who can't handle herself or with some extreme leftist background, he's likely to lose. Which is just sad at this point considering the Democrats are seemingly more idiotic than the Republicans led by Trump.

This whole era has exposed how much both parties have fallen into extreme, polarized thinking that not many of us want. Both parties are getting pushed by their extremist members take no prisoners, media driven fearmongering BS that is driving this country to the state it is. We have the worst leadership I've seen in my lifetime.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I know more than a few folks who think Biden has zero chance of winning. They think Biden appears senile and weak and will be look even worse once Biden and Trump go head to head. I know if Biden picks a bad VP candidate who can't handle herself or with some extreme leftist background, he's likely to lose. Which is just sad at this point considering the Democrats are seemingly more idiotic than the Republicans led by Trump.

"Zero" chance? Hopefully they're speaking tongue in cheek. I don't know any rational person that would give any candidate 'zero' chance let alone one that has a double digit lead in the polls.

Agreed about Biden's VP choice. He can't afford to blow this pick. He's already said he's taking a female candidate and there's a lot of pressure for him to take an African American woman. Although she's not my first choice, the safe pick would be Kamala Harris as she's already been well vetted and she already has a campaign organization she could re-constitute and merge with Biden's. My first choice would be Staci Abrams as I think she'd meld well with Biden and she doesn't have a long track record that could be picked apart.

Aseahawkfan wrote:This whole era has exposed how much both parties have fallen into extreme, polarized thinking that not many of us want. Both parties are getting pushed by their extremist members take no prisoners, media driven fearmongering BS that is driving this country to the state it is. We have the worst leadership I've seen in my lifetime.

Very true. IMO Trump is primarily responsible for this polarization, but he is by no means alone. I've never seen the nation as divided as it is today, and that includes the 60's with all the assassinations, riots, Vietnam, etc.

I'm ripe for a 3rd party, but it's simply not in the cards anytime soon.

RiverDog wrote:Very true. IMO Trump is primarily responsible for this polarization, but he is by no means alone. I've never seen the nation as divided as it is today, and that includes the 60's with all the assassinations, riots, Vietnam, etc.

I'm ripe for a 3rd party, but it's simply not in the cards anytime soon.

Trump has leveraged the divisiveness to greatest effect. But the real source is the media. When it became profitable to push political bias in the media for ratings, that is when the train started going off the tracks. The rise of the media as agenda driven and politically biased has caused this divide to reach the level it is at. Let's be real here. All the way back in the annals of time humans have been sheep to the man who can stoke their fears, hopes, and emotions. The media has magnified and monetized these folks to push various agendas. If you're a standard person of common intelligence who decides to take these talking heads and rhetoriticians at face value allowing their opinions to become your own absent analysis and deeper research, then you hand over enormous power to shape the culture and beliefs of a nation to these men. These men are often not particularly good people, but much more like Donald Trump preying on the fears and emotions of the masses for their personal gain. This has been the battle between men for ages. You know as well as I that this is by far the majority of people.

The best case scenario if Trump should win is the Republicans losing the Senate. Then not much will get done and Trump will spend four years in a cage dodging investigations with very little getting done. He might even get impeached and removed as a deal to get rid of the idiot.

We shall see. I know the polls are saying one thing, while almost no one I know has switched their vote from Trump. The constant attacks on him by the Democrats and other liberal groups just further inflame these Trump voters by making Trump look like a victim. I think if these folks could manage to remain quiet, Trump would have hung himself. But they just can't let Dumb as Dirt dig a grave he can't get out of. The Democrats have sent this nearly 80 year old man on a last ride to stop the loon. No idea why the Dems couldn't find a better candidate, but maybe it is fitting that this battle between two old men, both representing dying ways of thinking oppose each other. I think in the future political candidates for both parties will look very different as will our nation.

RiverDog wrote:Very true. IMO Trump is primarily responsible for this polarization, but he is by no means alone. I've never seen the nation as divided as it is today, and that includes the 60's with all the assassinations, riots, Vietnam, etc.

I'm ripe for a 3rd party, but it's simply not in the cards anytime soon.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Trump has leveraged the divisiveness to greatest effect. But the real source is the media. When it became profitable to push political bias in the media for ratings, that is when the train started going off the tracks. The rise of the media as agenda driven and politically biased has caused this divide to reach the level it is at. Let's be real here. All the way back in the annals of time humans have been sheep to the man who can stoke their fears, hopes, and emotions. The media has magnified and monetized these folks to push various agendas. If you're a standard person of common intelligence who decides to take these talking heads and rhetoriticians at face value allowing their opinions to become your own absent analysis and deeper research, then you hand over enormous power to shape the culture and beliefs of a nation to these men. These men are often not particularly good people, but much more like Donald Trump preying on the fears and emotions of the masses for their personal gain. This has been the battle between men for ages. You know as well as I that this is by far the majority of people.

The game changer for Trump was/is Twitter. It allowed him to bypass the media altogether and to get his message out unfiltered. If it wasn't for the fact that he's so far out of step with the rest of society, he'd be taking advantage of it during this current pandemic and acting presidential, rallying the 'troops' around the flag in a crisis, but instead, due to his addiction to the medium and his propensity for his mouth to get ahead of his brain, it's showing all of his warts and gives his critics plenty of ammo. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

Aseahawkfan wrote:The best case scenario if Trump should win is the Republicans losing the Senate. Then not much will get done and Trump will spend four years in a cage dodging investigations with very little getting done. He might even get impeached and removed as a deal to get rid of the idiot.

If Trump wins in November, he won't be able to do much unless he controls both Houses. Impeachment is a dead issue. The Dems wasted their ammo last year. As a lame duck and no threat of impeachment, Trump would be unbearable as he wouldn't have to answer to either Congress or the public.

Aseahawkfan wrote:We shall see. I know the polls are saying one thing, while almost no one I know has switched their vote from Trump. The constant attacks on him by the Democrats and other liberal groups just further inflame these Trump voters by making Trump look like a victim. I think if these folks could manage to remain quiet, Trump would have hung himself. But they just can't let Dumb as Dirt dig a grave he can't get out of. The Democrats have sent this nearly 80 year old man on a last ride to stop the loon. No idea why the Dems couldn't find a better candidate, but maybe it is fitting that this battle between two old men, both representing dying ways of thinking oppose each other. I think in the future political candidates for both parties will look very different as will our nation.

If your friends are mostly white males, then I can believe that none of them have switched. That's his rock solid base. Trump's biggest problem recently has been with white suburban female voters. Those are the ones they are most concerned about and the ones most likely to flip.

Trump won in 2016 by a very narrow margin, less than 100K voters in two states, so Biden doesn't have to flip any Trump voters. All he has to do is re-constitute Obama's coalition, the same voters HRC was unable to reach and sat out 2016, he'll beat Trump by 100+ electoral votes and 5+% in the popular vote. Given the racial tensions that Trump has done nothing but inflame and Biden's relatively high rating with blacks, the challenger has an excellent opportunity to reinvigorate that group of voters. That's why his VP choice, as you pointed out, is critical.

The coronavirus has been to Biden's benefit. It gives his managers an excuse to keep him under wraps. Trump's campaign is going to have to smoke him out, get him into an ad lib situation where Biden is prone to making huge gaffes, like the one when made when he said if you're a black that supports Trump, that you ain't black. In the meantime, the "give him enough rope and he'll hang himself" strategy the Biden people are employing against Trump is working to a 'T'. Trump's worst enemy is himself.

RiverDog wrote:The game changer for Trump was/is Twitter. It allowed him to bypass the media altogether and to get his message out unfiltered. If it wasn't for the fact that he's so far out of step with the rest of society, he'd be taking advantage of it during this current pandemic and acting presidential, rallying the 'troops' around the flag in a crisis, but instead, due to his addiction to the medium and his propensity for his mouth to get ahead of his brain, it's showing all of his warts and gives his critics plenty of ammo. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

Do you think Twitter helped him much with his base? Do white males or older voters hang out on Twitter? I have trouble believing Twitter helped him much with his base. Older white male voters and older voters in general.

Joe Rogan is talking about voting for Trump not because he likes Trump's politics, but because he views the lefts politics as worse. That seems to be the consensus among many I talk to. They don't much care for Trump. They know he's a jerk. But they view the left's positions and allowances for chaos, policies, attitudes, and the like as worse. No one I knows much reads his tweets. The main thing driving their Trump support is the left's political stances and attitudes.

It's outright cultural warfare.

If Trump wins in November, he won't be able to do much unless he controls both Houses. Impeachment is a dead issue. The Dems wasted their ammo last year. As a lame duck and no threat of impeachment, Trump would be unbearable as he wouldn't have to answer to either Congress or the public.

He would be unbearable talking, but a toothless dog as his bark would become worse than his bite. He would have no backing, no protection, and if he won with a Democratic Congress, he would have to be way more careful than he is without the protection of the Senate from removal. He would go mad in The White House, constantly blaming the Dems, while the Dems vote against nearly everything he wants and vote to block him on everything. He might quit if he won with a Democratic Congress as it would be four years of hell for him. Pelosi and probably Schumer in charge ignoring him, telling him to go F himself, and generally acting as his foil for his second term.

If your friends are mostly white males, then I can believe that none of them have switched. That's his rock solid base. Trump's biggest problem recently has been with white suburban female voters. Those are the ones they are most concerned about and the ones most likely to flip.

Trump won in 2016 by a very narrow margin, less than 100K voters in two states, so Biden doesn't have to flip any Trump voters. All he has to do is re-constitute Obama's coalition, the same voters HRC was unable to reach and sat out 2016, he'll beat Trump by 100+ electoral votes and 5+% in the popular vote. Given the racial tensions that Trump has done nothing but inflame and Biden's relatively high rating with blacks, the challenger has an excellent opportunity to reinvigorate that group of voters. That's why his VP choice, as you pointed out, is critical.

The coronavirus has been to Biden's benefit. It gives his managers an excuse to keep him under wraps. Trump's campaign is going to have to smoke him out, get him into an ad lib situation where Biden is prone to making huge gaffes, like the one when made when he said if you're a black that supports Trump, that you ain't black. In the meantime, the "give him enough rope and he'll hang himself" strategy the Biden people are employing against Trump is working to a 'T'. Trump's worst enemy is himself.

We'll see won't we. I want to see how this plays out. If Trump picks a woman of African descent, I want to see how that plays. We're really seeing the racists in his base driven to into a tizzy by the BLM movement and all the attacks on their values and lives. They aren't the ones openly talking about it, but in private they are in a rage waiting for their chance to vote. I want to see how strong their racist viewpoint is if Trump picks a female VP of African descent. It will depend on the candidate. How friendly is she to business? How extreme is her viewpoint on race and how to fix those problems? Contrary to what you're seeing right now, moderate voters of European aka white ancestry are scared of this extremist racial movement. They're on board with stopping police brutality, but not this whole rip everything down situation they're watching. It's very polarizing. I want to see how that plays out. Biden will need a VP candidate that can show these moderate white voters that they don't plan to encourage this rip everything down and encourage racial chaos in the culture of America.

There may be blow back from all of that if isn't handled well that may push Trump back into office.

You ever had a racist relative? I recently found out of one my relative's a very racist person. I really hate racists. It's make it very hard to talk to this relative. I may never talk to them again. I'm not sure at this point. If we had been face to face and this relative was talking as they were rather than on the phone, I may have physically struck them. I would likely at least have thrown them from my home. Racism is evil in my mind. Racists have tried to ruin this nation and the world for ages. Racism and the type of thinking involved in racist thought has caused the most human tragedy in history and racism specifically in America. I despise those people. Very hard to tolerate. I won't tolerate it even from a relative.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Do you think Twitter helped him much with his base? Do white males or older voters hang out on Twitter? I have trouble believing Twitter helped him much with his base. Older white male voters and older voters in general.

Yes, I do. You don't have to follow Twitter in order to see the stuff he sends over it. I don't use my Twitter account at all but I have no problem seeing his tweets. They're repeated by every news organization seconds after he posts them. Fox News/Limbaugh and others pick them up, adds their own spin to them, and transmits them to Trump's base.

If Trump wins in November, he won't be able to do much unless he controls both Houses. Impeachment is a dead issue. The Dems wasted their ammo last year. As a lame duck and no threat of impeachment, Trump would be unbearable as he wouldn't have to answer to either Congress or the public.

Aseahawkfan wrote:He would be unbearable talking, but a toothless dog as his bark would become worse than his bite. He would have no backing, no protection, and if he won with a Democratic Congress, he would have to be way more careful than he is without the protection of the Senate from removal. He would go mad in The White House, constantly blaming the Dems, while the Dems vote against nearly everything he wants and vote to block him on everything. He might quit if he won with a Democratic Congress as it would be four years of hell for him. Pelosi and probably Schumer in charge ignoring him, telling him to go F himself, and generally acting as his foil for his second term.

He would be toothless legislatively, but as the head of the executive branch and Commander in Chief of the military, he still has plenty of bite behind his bark. A good example is his border wall money he diverted from the defense department budget by declaring a national emergency. He can still issue Executive Orders, still veto legislation, end programs like DACA.

Aseahawkfan wrote:We'll see won't we. I want to see how this plays out. If Trump picks a woman of African descent, I want to see how that plays. We're really seeing the racists in his base driven to into a tizzy by the BLM movement and all the attacks on their values and lives. They aren't the ones openly talking about it, but in private they are in a rage waiting for their chance to vote. I want to see how strong their racist viewpoint is if Trump picks a female VP of African descent. It will depend on the candidate. How friendly is she to business? How extreme is her viewpoint on race and how to fix those problems? Contrary to what you're seeing right now, moderate voters of European aka white ancestry are scared of this extremist racial movement. They're on board with stopping police brutality, but not this whole rip everything down situation they're watching. It's very polarizing. I want to see how that plays out. Biden will need a VP candidate that can show these moderate white voters that they don't plan to encourage this rip everything down and encourage racial chaos in the culture of America.

There may be blow back from all of that if isn't handled well that may push Trump back into office.

I don't necessarily disagree with any of that. I don't think that the two I mentioned, ie Abrams and Harris, would be the type of radical that would drive moderates away from supporting the ticket or if they did, they could make up for that by attracting more African American voters than Hillary did. Abrams in particular seems almost desperate to get onto the ticket and would likely adjust any radical views to be more in line with Biden's moderate ones. Abrams doesn't have a legislative track record to be held against her.

Aseahawkfan wrote:You ever had a racist relative? I recently found out of one my relative's a very racist person. I really hate racists. It's make it very hard to talk to this relative. I may never talk to them again. I'm not sure at this point. If we had been face to face and this relative was talking as they were rather than on the phone, I may have physically struck them. I would likely at least have thrown them from my home. Racism is evil in my mind. Racists have tried to ruin this nation and the world for ages. Racism and the type of thinking involved in racist thought has caused the most human tragedy in history and racism specifically in America. I despise those people. Very hard to tolerate. I won't tolerate it even from a relative.

I have a relatively small family so outside my parents, both born in 1925 and are deceased, I don't have a relative that I would consider a racist. My one sibling married an Ethiopian girl so my only two nephews are multi racial (and great kids that I'm extremely proud of).

Although my psychological make-up is similar to yours regarding our attitudes towards racists, so long as they are law abiding, I tolerate them more than I would guess that you do. We have a former neighbor and a good friend of my wife's that is extremely racist and expresses it often. She says stuff like "Obama is a frigging Muslim" and will blame everything from the common cold to global warming on illegal aliens, but she's not smart enough to articulate her opinion so I just let it fly and usually end up biting
my tongue and excusing myself. I treat discussions about racism similarly to the three taboo subjects that you don't talk about on a first date: Sex, politics, and religion. I only discuss those subjects with close friends, all of whom are not racists.

RiverDog wrote:I have a relatively small family so outside my parents, both born in 1925 and are deceased, I don't have a relative that I would consider a racist. My one sibling married an Ethiopian girl so my only two nephews are multi racial (and great kids that I'm extremely proud of).

Although my psychological make-up is similar to yours regarding our attitudes towards racists, so long as they are law abiding, I tolerate them more than I would guess that you do. We have a former neighbor and a good friend of my wife's that is extremely racist and expresses it often. She says stuff like "Obama is a frigging Muslim" and will blame everything from the common cold to global warming on illegal aliens, but she's not smart enough to articulate her opinion so I just let it fly and usually end up biting
my tongue and excusing myself. I treat discussions about racism similarly to the three taboo subjects that you don't talk about on a first date: Sex, politics, and religion. I only discuss those subjects with close friends, all of whom are not racists.

I'm not talking about some stupid opinion with no basis in reality. I'm talking about using racial epithets and talking about they "hate black people" and crap like that. People that say some vile crap. Racial epithets are something I don't much tolerate from people I know. Someone using them around me in a casual fashion will be flushed from my life. That is intolerable to me.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I'm not talking about some stupid opinion with no basis in reality. I'm talking about using racial epithets and talking about they "hate black people" and crap like that. People that say some vile crap. Racial epithets are something I don't much tolerate from people I know. Someone using them around me in a casual fashion will be flushed from my life. That is intolerable to me.

I honestly don't know anyone like that, at least not within my current circle of friends. But I agree, it's intolerable.

RiverDog wrote:
I honestly don't know anyone like that, at least not within my current circle of friends. But I agree, it's intolerable.

Fairly common hereabouts:

https://www.wpsdlocal6.com/news/honda-d ... fe119.html

RiverDog wrote:I honestly don't know anyone like that, at least not within my current circle of friends. But I agree, it's intolerable.

c_hawkbob wrote:Fairly common hereabouts:

https://www.wpsdlocal6.com/news/honda-d ... fe119.html

I think I'm safe in assuming that he's not within your circle of friends. What a disgusting POS. I have a hard time coming to grips with that way of thinking. A person must be damn insecure to allow those kinds of feelings permeate their consciousness.

That remark made for blacks to "go back to Africa" reminded me of DJT's tweet to The Squad to "go back to where you came from". I can't help thinking that Trump has some degree of responsibility for those people who conclude from statements of his that this kind of thinking is socially acceptable.

RiverDog wrote:I think I'm safe in assuming that he's not within your circle of friends. What a disgusting POS. I have a hard time coming to grips with that way of thinking. A person must be damn insecure to allow those kinds of feelings permeate their consciousness.

Correct, although I still find myself shocked at how often I hear it in semi public setting conersations (the hot tub or sauna at the gym I go to for instance).

RiverDog wrote:That remark made for blacks to "go back to Africa" reminded me of DJT's tweet to The Squad to "go back to where you came from".

Yep.

There is a lot of misunderstanding and intolerance towards each other driven by fear, unfamiliarity, and bad teachings. That's why I spent time re-orienting my mind to not absorb the thinking when I felt it coming on like remaining aware there is no nation known as black and white, learning about other places like nations in Africa, Asia, and other areas of the world, taking the time to learn cultural differences rather than assuming people are the same from the same area, and other measures to not allow my mind to fall into stereo-type thinking. America really tries to force you into that little box of races and ideas about people. Even their questionnaires encourage this thinking. It attempts to boil down the complexity of humanity into easily defined and dismissed categories. I don't feel like thinking that way given how inaccurate and dismissive it allows people to be about each other.

I see this even on the minority side when groups seem to be broad brushing police officers or European people as all racist. I always tell them you need to understand not all people of European ancestry come from the same places, they weren't all involved in or supportive of slavery or race laws, and many didn't even come to this nation during those time periods. It really doesn't accurately portray people to assume they all come from the same background and mentality or paint them as part of the same groups you have a beef with.

People really need to educate themselves more human history and appreciate more their variation than these broad brush strokes that alienate each other. This lack of education, introspection, and awareness of history is a big cause of all this strife and foolishness.