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I was talking with my conservative buddies last night. They think Trump can lay the majority of economic damage on the Dems and the blue state lock down orders if they remain locked down longer than he thinks they should. I told them last I heard 60% of Americans support extending the lock down. They said that number will get smaller and smaller as the lock down extends. Once this is over if the unemployment rate remains high and people have lost their jobs especially in swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump will be able to blame the Dem Governors of those states for the economic damage and job losses. He can also claim the Democrats held re-opening up and the liberal press tried to slow down re-opening with their skewed news coverage. They also think he can exploit the "attack on Civil Liberties" angle as driven by the Democrats.

My feeling is he can only exploit this angle if the death rate stays low and we don't get a second wave. I don't think he can exploit this angle if we get hit next fall and a second wave of COVID19 hits with no vaccine or treatments in place.

They think we'll have a vaccine or some anti-viral treatments by that time and people will still more angry about losing their jobs, money, and the economic suicide in the the Swing States that Trump can exploit. I'm doubtful myself.

My feeling is a strong run by Biden with some surprise revelations like Trump using racist rants or something will torpedo the second term or a second wave of COVID19 that leads to more lock downs and terrible White House briefings with him "brainstorming" solutions like injecting disinfectants will not be good for him. He doesn't know how to handle a negative situation very well. His salesman rambling speaking style and combatie, pettiness won't play well in another lock down.

What do you think? Does he have any chance of accomplishing this? Do you think people will get more and more unhappy if they remain locked down and Trump is railing against it? Can he lay the economic damage at the feet of Dem governors that keep the lock down long enough to anger people and cause more job losses?

Aseahawkfan wrote:I was talking with my conservative buddies last night. They think Trump can lay the majority of economic damage on the Dems and the blue state lock down orders if they remain locked down longer than he thinks they should. I told them last I heard 60% of Americans support extending the lock down. They said that number will get smaller and smaller as the lock down extends. Once this is over if the unemployment rate remains high and people have lost their jobs especially in swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump will be able to blame the Dem Governors of those states for the economic damage and job losses. He can also claim the Democrats held re-opening up and the liberal press tried to slow down re-opening with their skewed news coverage. They also think he can exploit the "attack on Civil Liberties" angle as driven by the Democrats.

My feeling is he can only exploit this angle if the death rate stays low and we don't get a second wave. I don't think he can exploit this angle if we get hit next fall and a second wave of COVID19 hits with no vaccine or treatments in place.

They think we'll have a vaccine or some anti-viral treatments by that time and people will still more angry about losing their jobs, money, and the economic suicide in the the Swing States that Trump can exploit. I'm doubtful myself.

My feeling is a strong run by Biden with some surprise revelations like Trump using racist rants or something will torpedo the second term or a second wave of COVID19 that leads to more lock downs and terrible White House briefings with him "brainstorming" solutions like injecting disinfectants will not be good for him. He doesn't know how to handle a negative situation very well. His salesman rambling speaking style and combatie, pettiness won't play well in another lock down.

What do you think? Does he have any chance of accomplishing this? Do you think people will get more and more unhappy if they remain locked down and Trump is railing against it? Can he lay the economic damage at the feet of Dem governors that keep the lock down long enough to anger people and cause more job losses?

It's going to be pretty difficult for Trump to pin the economy or the coronavirus response on Joe Biden. He's not in charge of anything, and hasn't been for 4 years. Presidential elections have always been more about a contest between two men than it has about two parties. Trump is going to be on the defensive, and undoubtedly will make every attempt to pin the blame on the Democrats, but the real challenge for him will be to convince moderates that he's a better option than Biden.

Trump's poll numbers have been sliding. The latest have him not only trailing significantly in the key swing states like PA (-6) and MI (-8), but they show him trailing in Florida (-3). In North Carolina, a state he won by 4% in 2016, he trails Biden by 5%. Even in Texas, a state that is absolutely a must for his reelection, has become a virtual toss-up. His job approval sits at 44.3% and has obviously been hurt by his performance over the past few weeks regarding the coronavirus and his daily briefings. The best advice for Trump is to shut his frigging cake hole and stay the f*** off Twitter, but of course, he won't.

Creepy Joe has his own problems, though. He's having to defend himself from a new sexual assault allegation and is preparing to address the nation about it today. As Idahawkman would say, get out your popcorn!

Why pin the economy on the Dems at all? COVID-19 takes the blame as far as I'm concerned. I wouldn't put it past Trump to try and spin the falling economy as a Dem failing, but he'd be smart to just lay off of that one. Where I otherwise wasn't phased by Trumps antics over the last 3 years, the turd sandwich's antics and demeanor during this pandemic has been sad. I feel like most people can recognize when circumstances require them to put aside their male bovine fecal matter but not him.

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:Why pin the economy on the Dems at all? COVID-19 takes the blame as far as I'm concerned. I wouldn't put it past Trump to try and spin the falling economy as a Dem failing, but he'd be smart to just lay off of that one. Where I otherwise wasn't phased by Trumps antics over the last 3 years, the turd sandwich's antics and demeanor during this pandemic has been sad. I feel like most people can recognize when circumstances require them to put aside their male bovine fecal matter but not him.

Male bovine fecal matter. You've just expanded my politically correct vocabulary. Thanks a bunch!

I don't think the argument in the OP is about the economy per se as much as it is that the shutdowns are exasperating the situation. We should be out of the most restrictive parts of the shutdown by mid summer, and unless there are major outbreaks in the fall, it's likely to be a moot point by election time. In any event, it would be easy for Biden to deflect criticism as all he has to do is point out that they weren't his decision, perhaps defend his mostly Dem governors by saying that they were acting on the best information available.

A little off topic, but an update on the shutdown of our Tyson Foods meat packing plant that I've referenced in other threads. They shut it down last week and vowed to test every one of the 1400 employees. Yesterday they announced 75 new positive tests, bringing the total positives to 200 employees with more test results expected today. Who knows how many people those 200 employees have come in contact with. Many live in large families, with 8 or 10 people in one home. The POTUS's EO ordering them to remain open is going to be a little difficult to honor if a quarter of their employees are in quarantine.

Costco announced that starting Monday, they are requiring all members and guests to wear masks while in the store. I was at Costco yesterday, and well under half of the customers were wearing face coverings. I've heard lots of people howling, vowing to cancel their memberships. The largest domestic airlines, including Delta, American, and United, have announced policies to require that all passengers wear face coverings. This is going to be an interesting summer.

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:Why pin the economy on the Dems at all? COVID-19 takes the blame as far as I'm concerned. I wouldn't put it past Trump to try and spin the falling economy as a Dem failing, but he'd be smart to just lay off of that one. Where I otherwise wasn't phased by Trumps antics over the last 3 years, the turd sandwich's antics and demeanor during this pandemic has been sad. I feel like most people can recognize when circumstances require them to put aside their male bovine fecal matter but not him.

Good one
Hes blaming everyone, launching conspiracy theories regarding the origins of the virus, Attacking the WHO. These are all fair questions to be answered. But much like imposing more sanctions and tariffs on china in a pandemic health and global financial crisis this isnt the time . Its wag the dog to deflect. it is about as intelligent as trump ever gets which is not very.

And anyone who thinks the trade war and negotiations to end it didn't affect this response by both counties is delusional
Sure he will blame the democrats, anybody he can. the fake media whatever but he will forever be the president of record to preside over a pandemic of this scope and the fact is he golfed, held campaign rallies, downplayed this publicly,. got his corrupt treasonous ass impeached . Trump praised China's response in his first public comments on the virus as well as the WHO response in late Jan.

He can't unmake those tee times, unsay those things, take those actions he delayed by weeks.
He can't have it both ways. Hes beat his chest for 3.5 years about an economy and market that had grown for 7 years prior his election, took all the credit. But he's learning the painful truth along with us all that when presidents dont take care of business, are not a leader,part of the world community, a statesman , diplomat, a serious person you can lose it all in a very short period of time.
Bottom line I think his response to this will be the key in november and the economic collateral damage will be laid at his feet barring some miracle. With our pathetic lack of testing we are 2 weeks behind the curve in identifying victims positively we are likely at 80K plus right now.https://news.yahoo.com/florida-curtails ... 03327.html. This is the florida republican governors plan to keep the death toll down. Greg Abbott is opening TexaS wight the fastest rising death toll in the nation as he was one of the last to shut down.

I dont see this helping Trump in any way. I'm afraid the pandemic has shined a light on the cockroach and he's got nowhere to hide. I wanted him gone but not like this.

RiverDog wrote:It's going to be pretty difficult for Trump to pin the economy or the coronavirus response on Joe Biden. He's not in charge of anything, and hasn't been for 4 years. Presidential elections have always been more about a contest between two men than it has about two parties. Trump is going to be on the defensive, and undoubtedly will make every attempt to pin the blame on the Democrats, but the real challenge for him will be to convince moderates that he's a better option than Biden.

Trump's poll numbers have been sliding. The latest have him not only trailing significantly in the key swing states like PA (-6) and MI (-8), but they show him trailing in Florida (-3). In North Carolina, a state he won by 4% in 2016, he trails Biden by 5%. Even in Texas, a state that is absolutely a must for his reelection, has become a virtual toss-up. His job approval sits at 44.3% and has obviously been hurt by his performance over the past few weeks regarding the coronavirus and his daily briefings. The best advice for Trump is to shut his frigging cake hole and stay the f*** off Twitter, but of course, he won't.

Creepy Joe has his own problems, though. He's having to defend himself from a new sexual assault allegation and is preparing to address the nation about it today. As Idahawkman would say, get out your popcorn!

The argument wasn't pinning it on Biden. Can he pin it on the Democrats who Biden represents? People don't vote for presidents because of who they are, they vote for the party they represent.

Very few of my conservative friends like Trump. They acknowledge he's a jerk and don't feel he carries the office very well. They don't feel he is very presidential. They support him more for the party he represents who does a better job of supporting the values they believe in. They won't vote for Biden because they view him as representing the values espoused by people like AOC, Sanders, and Pelosi whom they despise as well as men like Inslee, who they also despise. I've tried to explain this to multiple Democrats and left leaning folk who like to opine, "How can anyone support Trump? Can't they see what type of person he is?" I try to tell them that they vote for their party and the values the party represents and acknowledge the shortcomings of the man representing the party, same as you Dems and left leaning folk did with Clinton. They don't usually get that.

I'm sure you understand this as it is probably similar for you. The question is can he blame the Dems as a whole for the economic damage using the lock down orders and unwillingness of Dems to re-open the economy?

My argument against that is this is only possible if there is no second wave of COVID19 and the Dems keep things locked down without a second wave hitting us. Otherwise, I can't see how he will be able to do this.

Hawktawk wrote:Good one
Hes blaming everyone, launching conspiracy theories regarding the origins of the virus, Attacking the WHO. These are all fair questions to be answered. But much like imposing more sanctions and tariffs on china in a pandemic health and global financial crisis this isnt the time . Its wag the dog to deflect. it is about as intelligent as trump ever gets which is not very.

And anyone who thinks the trade war and negotiations to end it didn't affect this response by both counties is delusional
Sure he will blame the democrats, anybody he can. the fake media whatever but he will forever be the president of record to preside over a pandemic of this scope and the fact is he golfed, held campaign rallies, downplayed this publicly,. got his corrupt treasonous ass impeached . Trump praised China's response in his first public comments on the virus as well as the WHO response in late Jan.

He can't unmake those tee times, unsay those things, take those actions he delayed by weeks.
He can't have it both ways. Hes beat his chest for 3.5 years about an economy and market that had grown for 7 years prior his election, took all the credit. But he's learning the painful truth along with us all that when presidents dont take care of business, are not a leader,part of the world community, a statesman , diplomat, a serious person you can lose it all in a very short period of time.
Bottom line I think his response to this will be the key in november and the economic collateral damage will be laid at his feet barring some miracle. With our pathetic lack of testing we are 2 weeks behind the curve in identifying victims positively we are likely at 80K plus right now.https://news.yahoo.com/florida-curtails ... 03327.html. This is the florida republican governors plan to keep the death toll down. Greg Abbott is opening TexaS wight the fastest rising death toll in the nation as he was one of the last to shut down.

I dont see this helping Trump in any way. I'm afraid the pandemic has shined a light on the cockroach and he's got nowhere to hide. I wanted him gone but not like this.

I doubt he can pin it on them either. His press conferences have been a disaster. It literally showed he can't even stow his combative pettiness in the wake of a global pandemic. Trump can't stop being Trump even when it would benefit him to do so. If Biden wasn't so weak a candidate, I would give Trump zero chance of winning. Only reason Trump has any chance of a second term is because the main person running against him isn't a great candidate either. I think if Biden picks a strong vice presidential running mate, that will push him over the top. Pence isn't a very strong Vice President in my opinion. He's a steadying influence to the rambling, combative Trump, but not a strong presence. He seems like Trump's yes man who is always attempting to smooth over the Trump's crude talk.

I hear what you're saying Asea about ideology. I still dont ascribe to a liberal philosophy per se but trump and his disgusting slavish zombies have made me think and I'm more in the middle now. Regardless for the first time in my life I sensed disaster, clearly saw an unfit man, never supported him a minute.
Because in the end we are learning that being able to lead and protect americans is way more important than ideology. He spent 4 years screaming about a wall while tearing down the pandemic wall created by the Obama administration like everything else Obama did. Hes now blaming Obama for these test failures when of course there's no test till theres a virus, total lies and it's still a mess.

Rep Gov Hogan from Maryland procured 500k tests from S Korea and was criticized by Trump for not going through proper channels.Sort of like calling Inslee a snake for making him look bad by proving there are no tests.

Hogan says he has the test kits hidden in a secret location under guard by the national guard to keep the feds from seizing them!!!! THIS IS AMERICA !!You can't make it up . Its guatemala with nukes .

His firing of John Bolton for not going along with his drug deal in Ukraine Removed the final line of defense. The last adult in the room left .When this hit america we had an acting chief of staff(now fired) and acting secretary of the navy(because the secretary resigned over the pardon of convicted war criminal eddie Gallagher.) Acting NSA chairman.Acting Sec of Defense. I know I'm missing a few. These are the guys that should have been in the front row, a well oiled machine in year 4.There have been key positions unfilled since he came into office,ambassadorships to *allies* total chaos. Any decent manager knows a good team takes time to gel but a psycho narcissist doesn't care. I wouldnt accept that type of turnover on a golf course maintenance crew.

It makes me sick the only option is Biden, particularly with these sexual allegations continuing to grow legs.Its anathema to everything I believe .Frankly I believe something happened .
And he's old, has lost his fastball.I wish it was someone better but there's still no hard choice for me at all.

Country over party . Country over ideology.Sanity over insanity. Competence and the ability to govern over incompetence and chaos and demagoguery and rancor.

I see Amash is running as a libertarian but he wont get traction although in eastern washington he might get my vote.

Still, I was listening to an interview with James Carville of Clinton fame. I've always hated the guy but respect his opinion politically and he's not often wrong. A few months ago he thought Trump might be a lock but since this pandemic and Trumps horrific response to it he's changed his mind. The quote was "the American people will not sign up for 4 more years of this". One can hope and pray.

I think a miracle cure is Trumps only chance and it needs to happen soon. It's a bargain Ill make with God although I fear than regardless of the outcome of the virus 4 more years of this guy could well doom the planet.Might have been part of doing it already.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I doubt he can pin it on them either. His press conferences have been a disaster. It literally showed he can't even stow his combative pettiness in the wake of a global pandemic. Trump can't stop being Trump even when it would benefit him to do so. If Biden wasn't so weak a candidate, I would give Trump zero chance of winning. Only reason Trump has any chance of a second term is because the main person running against him isn't a great candidate either. I think if Biden picks a strong vice presidential running mate, that will push him over the top. Pence isn't a very strong Vice President in my opinion. He's a steadying influence to the rambling, combative Trump, but not a strong presence. He seems like Trump's yes man who is always attempting to smooth over the Trump's crude talk.

Pence makes me sick. I really dont understand his game or maybe i do. As Bob Corker said years ago "they have an adult day care at the white house". Trump cabinet from Pence on down understands you lavish praise and adulation on the boss, you dont cross him or challenge him or you are outta here.Ask Tillerson, HR McMaster, Mad Dog Mattis , John Kelley.

Thats what Pence does, butter him up and kiss his arse even though trump won't even say whether he would back him in 24. Maybe he just wants to be a heartbeat from the presidency and thinks that's best for the country but nobody around Trump has a spine including the senators of his party, any of his cabinet and especially Pence. His refusal to put on a mask in a mask mandatory medical facility was no accident. follow the leader.

Aseahawkfan wrote:The argument wasn't pinning it on Biden. Can he pin it on the Democrats who Biden represents? People don't vote for presidents because of who they are, they vote for the party they represent.

Very few of my conservative friends like Trump. They acknowledge he's a jerk and don't feel he carries the office very well. They don't feel he is very presidential. They support him more for the party he represents who does a better job of supporting the values they believe in. They won't vote for Biden because they view him as representing the values espoused by people like AOC, Sanders, and Pelosi whom they despise as well as men like Inslee, who they also despise. I've tried to explain this to multiple Democrats and left leaning folk who like to opine, "How can anyone support Trump? Can't they see what type of person he is?" I try to tell them that they vote for their party and the values the party represents and acknowledge the shortcomings of the man representing the party, same as you Dems and left leaning folk did with Clinton. They don't usually get that.

It depends on which people you're talking about. Your friends sound like pretty dedicated R's, probably vote close to a straight R ticket, in which case what you say is exactly right. But your friends aren't the type of people that are going to decide the election. It's going to be decided by the 10-15% of voters that are genuinely in the middle, and in that instance, they'll be looking at the name, not the letter behind the name.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I'm sure you understand this as it is probably similar for you. The question is can he blame the Dems as a whole for the economic damage using the lock down orders and unwillingness of Dems to re-open the economy?

My argument against that is this is only possible if there is no second wave of COVID19 and the Dems keep things locked down without a second wave hitting us. Otherwise, I can't see how he will be able to do this.

Then again, the second wave could be blamed on Trump. He's the one that's been pushing governors to re-open amid criticism by many that it's too early. Don't forget that Trump once said that there would be no second wave, then was immediately corrected by Fauci, and when the Director of the CDC said that the 2nd wave could be worse than the 1st as it could be coupled with a bad flu season, he hauled him to the podium and made him bare his soul.

If the polls are any indication, the coronavirus crisis is not going to play well for Trump. Even his advisors know it. There are reports that Trump "erupted" at his campaign aids when they told him how bad his polling numbers look by saying "I'm not f-ing losing to Biden", or something to that effect. His best hope is that we get it under control before the election.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... si=1097212

Here's how you control the narrative of your massive ongoing F up. Again Fauci has an 80% approval rating. America gets this.Ron Desantis in florida is ordering his medical people not to report coronavirus deaths as well.https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4 ... th-numbers

I think it's why this administration is making it so hard to test. Like Jack Nicholson said in that movie "TRUTH? YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH"
Not even about masks https://www.mysanantonio.com/entertainm ... 238833.php
Bizarro world.

RiverDog wrote:It depends on which people you're talking about. Your friends sound like pretty dedicated R's, probably vote close to a straight R ticket, in which case what you say is exactly right. But your friends aren't the type of people that are going to decide the election. It's going to be decided by the 10-15% of voters that are genuinely in the middle, and in that instance, they'll be looking at the name, not the letter behind the name.

They do care about the values behind the party, even if not the letter behind the name. It depends on what issue they consider important. If this continues, I can guarantee you jobs and the economy will be number one to the moon. If all the Demos are offering is more lockdowns and economic destruction, that won't sound too good to all the people who will be going to food banks and waiting for government checks of devalued money.

Then again, the second wave could be blamed on Trump. He's the one that's been pushing governors to re-open amid criticism by many that it's too early. Don't forget that Trump once said that there would be no second wave, then was immediately corrected by Fauci, and when the Director of the CDC said that the 2nd wave could be worse than the 1st as it could be coupled with a bad flu season, he hauled him to the podium and made him bare his soul.

If the polls are any indication, the coronavirus crisis is not going to play well for Trump. Even his advisors know it. There are reports that Trump "erupted" at his campaign aids when they told him how bad his polling numbers look by saying "I'm not f-ing losing to Biden", or something to that effect. His best hope is that we get it under control before the election.

Second wave comes with a lot of death, Trump is done.

Ill accept Trump reelection if we are wrong about this but the Presidential commision says declining rates for 14 days and not a single state has met the criteria.Some who are opening up are climbing rapidly with sheltering . I hope to be wrong but the actual toll is likely 80 to 100K right now and opening early will be no end in sight to this carnage im afraid.

https://www.axios.com/senate-doctor-mit ... 8ab12.html
Heres a good one. No sympathy senators. My wife is a medical professional that cant get tested 4 months in nor can her patients. F you all very much

FYI every article I've linked today has come off the conservative web news link site hosted by Matt Drudge, a rock ribbed conservative and such a staunch defender of trump I quit reading it for a couple years.

IMO it's a canary in a coal mine because Drudge is pulling no punches in his links anymore. Not surprisingly Trump is attacking him for his "failed" website when the traffic has never been higher. He mean tweeted that there needs to be an alternative to Faux the other day too.As if the volunteer pravda with a few decent reporter thrown in isn't enough for his ego .

I think hes got an uphill battle even if its sleepy creepy joe.

Hawktawk wrote:Ill accept Trump reelection if we are wrong about this but the Presidential commision says declining rates for 14 days and not a single state has met the criteria.Some who are opening up are climbing rapidly with sheltering . I hope to be wrong but the actual toll is likely 80 to 100K right now and opening early will be no end in sight to this carnage im afraid.

My hope is that the hot summer weather with lots of sunshine significantly slows the spread of the virus. I personally think we're going to see a big drop in the number of reported cases in June-August, but once the weather gets cooler and the days shorter, that the virus will return. Hopefully we'll be better prepared for it this time around.

I do think we'll see deaths approach the 100k mark before this is all said and done, but it's not likely we'll see the 55k per month deaths that we saw in April.

RiverDog wrote:My hope is that the hot summer weather with lots of sunshine significantly slows the spread of the virus. I personally think we're going to see a big drop in the number of reported cases in June-August, but once the weather gets cooler and the days shorter, that the virus will return. Hopefully we'll be better prepared for it this time around.

I do think we'll see deaths approach the 100k mark before this is all said and done, but it's not likely we'll see the 55k per month deaths that we saw in April.

We may still hit a 100k next month. If a second wave hits, 100k will be wishful thinking.

I think people have to accept that to get the economy going, a lot of people are going to have to die. It's now a choice between a functioning economy or a lower death rate. Pick your poison. More death or economic devastation.

Even though South Korea is controlling the infection rate, their economy is heading towards the worst damage since 2009 and this is the country that did the best job controlling it. This sheltering in place is not a good way to maintain the world. I don't personally think we'll be able to sustain it. At some point politicians are going to have to make the same choices are ancestors did in times of war, famine and plague and learn to accept death to get things going.

Aseahawkfan wrote:We may still hit a 100k next month. If a second wave hits, 100k will be wishful thinking.

I think people have to accept that to get the economy going, a lot of people are going to have to die. It's now a choice between a functioning economy or a lower death rate. Pick your poison. More death or economic devastation.

Even though South Korea is controlling the infection rate, their economy is heading towards the worst damage since 2009 and this is the country that did the best job controlling it. This sheltering in place is not a good way to maintain the world. I don't personally think we'll be able to sustain it. At some point politicians are going to have to make the same choices are ancestors did in times of war, famine and plague and learn to accept death to get things going.

No way we hit 100k next month. That would mean another 40K deaths, and there's fewer people hospitalized and in ICU units than there was last month. April will be the worst month at least until the fall. The most vulnerable have already perished.

It may be wishful thinking, but I don't think we'll be sheltering in place during the 2nd wave. We should be caught up in the PPE and testing departments and a lot of the social distancing habits we've developed over the past couple of months along with more effective treatment methods should help us through the fall until they can get a vaccine developed and distributed. But it's going to take two years before our economy completely recovers.

RiverDog wrote:No way we hit 100k next month. That would mean another 40K deaths, and there's fewer people hospitalized and in ICU units than there was last month. April will be the worst month. The most vulnerable have already perished.

It may be wishful thinking, but I don't think we'll be sheltering in place during the 2nd wave. We should be caught up in the PPE and testing departments and a lot of the social distancing habits we've developed over the past couple of months along with more effective treatment methods should help us through the fall until they can get a vaccine developed and distributed. But it's going to take two years before our economy completely recovers.

We'll see. These states starting to re-open. I see a steady stream of death across the states maintaining. US at 65000 deaths which is about .0002 of population. Italy reached .0004 of population and still going. That is about 130000 for us.

RiverDog wrote:No way we hit 100k next month. That would mean another 40K deaths, and there's fewer people hospitalized and in ICU units than there was last month. April will be the worst month. The most vulnerable have already perished.

It may be wishful thinking, but I don't think we'll be sheltering in place during the 2nd wave. We should be caught up in the PPE and testing departments and a lot of the social distancing habits we've developed over the past couple of months along with more effective treatment methods should help us through the fall until they can get a vaccine developed and distributed. But it's going to take two years before our economy completely recovers.

Aseahawkfan wrote:We'll see. These states starting to re-open. I see a steady stream of death across the states maintaining. US at 65000 deaths which is about .0002 of population. Italy reached .0004 of population and still going. That is about 130000 for us.

The difference is the climate. Studies have shown that the virus, like most viruses, is adversely affected by heat, sunlight, and humidity. Once we get into the summer months, it's not going to be able to spread as rapidly as it did in Italy. People will still contract it and some will die, but not by the tens of thousands like we saw last month.

It also should buy time for us, time that Italy didn't have, that can be used to develop more effective treatments, get caught up on our testing and contact tracing, etc. But I do worry about what might happen when the weather turns later this fall.

Hawktawk wrote:FYI every article I've linked today has come off the conservative web news link site hosted by Matt Drudge, a rock ribbed conservative and such a staunch defender of trump I quit reading it for a couple years.

IMO it's a canary in a coal mine because Drudge is pulling no punches in his links anymore. Not surprisingly Trump is attacking him for his "failed" website when the traffic has never been higher. He mean tweeted that there needs to be an alternative to Faux the other day too.As if the volunteer pravda with a few decent reporter thrown in isn't enough for his ego .

I think hes got an uphill battle even if its sleepy creepy joe.

If the election were held today, I think that Creepy Joe would win easily. But these next 6 months are by far the most uncertain of times that any of us have ever witnessed. Who knows where we'll be. Will we be in another lockdown with Biden supporters generally obeying orders to stay home, which includes staying away from polling places while the Deplorables, in total defiance of the lockdown, turn out in droves?

It will be interesting to see how Biden fares following his response to the sexual assault charge. Although his record pales in comparison when you contrast it with Trump's multiple charges, the problem for the Dems is that with the stance they took in the Kavanaugh hearings, where the allegations were much less serious and older than the one against Biden and where we were taught by them that the female accuser should always be given the benefit of the doubt, they've set themselves up for an obvious hypocrisy. If it wasn't for the consequences of Biden being brought down by these allegations, ie another 4 years of Trump, I'd be laughing my guts out. What goes around, comes around.

RiverDog wrote:If the election were held today, I think that Creepy Joe would win easily. But these next 6 months are by far the most uncertain of times that any of us have ever witnessed. Who knows where we'll be. Will we be in another lockdown with Biden supporters generally obeying orders to stay home, which includes staying away from polling places while the Deplorables, in total defiance of the lockdown, turn out in droves?

It will be interesting to see how Biden fares following his response to the sexual assault charge. Although his record pales in comparison when you contrast it with Trump's multiple charges, the problem for the Dems is that with the stance they took in the Kavanaugh hearings, where the allegations were much less serious and older than the one against Biden and where we were taught by them that the female accuser should always be given the benefit of the doubt, they've set themselves up for an obvious hypocrisy. If it wasn't for the consequences of Biden being brought down by these allegations, ie another 4 years of Trump, I'd be laughing my guts out. What goes around, comes around.

We'll see how much the Dems will overlook to get rid of a candidate and party they hate. That's pretty much what drove Trump into office with all his shortcomings. Republican supporters that hated Hilary and the Dems.

That's why they voted for a guy who gave an interview sitting on a gold throne who has married two immigrant wives and is known for his infidelity and never attended church or spoke of God in the entire 30 plus years I've been following him. It was one of the most pure examples of political hypocrisy I've seen in my life with the other being Bill Clinton with the Democrats. I'm sure the Democrats will overlook Creepy/Sleepy Joe to get rid of Trump. So it will depend more on what issues are important to swing voters and who provides solutions they like.

Aseahawkfan wrote:We'll see how much the Dems will overlook to get rid of a candidate and party they hate. That's pretty much what drove Trump into office with all his shortcomings. Republican supporters that hated Hilary and the Dems.

That's why they voted for a guy who gave an interview sitting on a gold throne who has married two immigrant wives and is known for his infidelity and never attended church or spoke of God in the entire 30 plus years I've been following him. It was one of the most pure examples of political hypocrisy I've seen in my life with the other being Bill Clinton with the Democrats. I'm sure the Democrats will overlook Creepy/Sleepy Joe to get rid of Biden. So it will depend more on what issues are important to swing voters and who provides solutions they like.

I couldn't agree more. Democrats didn't seem to care when Bill Clinton used his cigar as a French tickler on a 21 year old intern yet get all bent out of shape when Trump simply talks about grabbing women by the pu$$y. I also think it rich that Republicans whom consider themselves as promoting family values don't seem to mind when Trump refers to his own daughter as a "piece of a$$" or cheats on his wife by banging pornstars. It's all about the capital letter behind the name. To about 60%-70% of the population, nothing else matters.

I'm curious if my friend Hawktalk, whom on several occasions has characterized Bret Kavanaugh as a "drunken rapist," is willing to call out Creepy Joe with the same veracity. Is Tara Reade's recollections any less credible than Cristine Blasey Ford's? We know that Biden has a well documented history of "inappropriately touching" other women, is it too much of a stretch of the imagination to believe that on occasion that his fingers might have gone just a little further?

RiverDog wrote:I couldn't agree more. Democrats didn't seem to care when Bill Clinton used his cigar as a French tickler on a 21 year old intern yet get all bent out of shape when Trump simply talks about grabbing women by the pu$$y. I also think it rich that Republicans whom consider themselves as promoting family values don't seem to mind when Trump refers to his own daughter as a "piece of a$$" or cheats on his wife by banging pornstars. It's all about the capital letter behind the name. To about 60%-70% of the population, nothing else matters.

I'm curious if my friend Hawktalk, whom on several occasions has characterized Bret Kavanaugh as a "drunken rapist," is willing to call out Creepy Joe with the same veracity. Is Tara Reade's recollections any less credible than Cristine Blasey Ford's? We know that Biden has a well documented history of "inappropriately touching" other women, is it too much of a stretch of the imagination to believe that on occasion that his fingers might have gone just a little further?

I read everything I could on Kavanaugh. It was drunken boy behavior I've seen from some of my friends. It sounded like he hasn't done anything of the kind since college and has actually helped a lot of women in their career with no inappropriate behavior. I know this modern metoo# movement wants to pillory any man whose ever done anything remotely related to sexual assault to a woman, but I have no interest in that. I've been hit on inappropriately by women at work and met people who have dealt with aggressive women. The men don't call it rape, especially when both parties are drunk. What was done to Kavanught just seemed like a desperate attempt by the Democrats and left to stop a Trump judge nomination. Now the Repubs are getting their revenge. We'll see how deep the rabbit hole goes, but I'm dubious this is a serious allegation other than to expose the hypocrisy of the Democrats and Progressives.

I'll see what this lady has to say and how serious it is in time. It reeks of the same type of political games the Dems played with Kavanaugh.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I read everything I could on Kavanaugh. It was drunken boy behavior I've seen from some of my friends. It sounded like he hasn't done anything of the kind since college and has actually helped a lot of women in their career with no inappropriate behavior. I know this modern metoo# movement wants to pillory any man whose ever done anything remotely related to sexual assault to a woman, but I have no interest in that. I've been hit on inappropriately by women at work and met people who have dealt with aggressive women. The men don't call it rape, especially when both parties are drunk. What was done to Kavanught just seemed like a desperate attempt by the Democrats and left to stop a Trump judge nomination. Now the Repubs are getting their revenge. We'll see how deep the rabbit hole goes, but I'm dubious this is a serious allegation other than to expose the hypocrisy of the Democrats and Progressives.

I'll see what this lady has to say and how serious it is in time. It reeks of the same type of political games the Dems played with Kavanaugh.

The biggest problem I had with the Kavanaugh accusations was the amount of time that had elapsed, 37 years. Even the sharpest of memories over events one would think would be as clear and vivid as they day they happened, can be influenced over a period of multiple decades. I've read accounts of event like the JFK assassination, the D-Day landings, etc, where eyewitnesses were proven wrong when irrefutable evidence proved what they thought happened could have never occurred. That's one of the reasons why we have a statute of limitations. If that's all an accusation has to rely on, ie one person's recollection of events, I'll view it with some degree of skepticism.

Additionally, we can't set aside the principle of innocent until proven guilty simply because of the understandable difficulty many women have in reporting sexual assault incidents. I don't necessarily need ironclad proof, but at least some evidence that meets the reasonable doubt standard.

As far as how all this affects Biden. If it was going to come out, now is the best time, well before the beginning of the campaign season and at a time when the nation is clearly distracted. It would have been worse had it come out a few weeks before the election, like the Bush DUI. I don't think it will have a huge impact.

RiverDog wrote:The biggest problem I had with the Kavanaugh accusations was the amount of time that had elapsed, 37 years. Even the sharpest of memories over events one would think would be as clear and vivid as they day they happened, can be influenced over a period of multiple decades. I've read accounts of event like the JFK assassination, the D-Day landings, etc, where eyewitnesses were proven wrong when irrefutable evidence proved what they thought happened could have never occurred. That's one of the reasons why we have a statute of limitations. If that's all an accusation has to rely on, ie one person's recollection of events, I'll view it with some degree of skepticism.

Additionally, we can't set aside the principle of innocent until proven guilty simply because of the understandable difficulty many women have in reporting sexual assault incidents. I don't necessarily need ironclad proof, but at least some evidence that meets the reasonable doubt standard.

As far as how all this affects Biden. If it was going to come out, now is the best time, well before the beginning of the campaign season and at a time when the nation is clearly distracted. It would have been worse had it come out a few weeks before the election, like the Bush DUI. I don't think it will have a huge impact.

I just didn't think what she said happened was what I consider sexual assault. If behavior like that is going to be considered career ending at a later time in life, there would be a lot of men going down. I know when I was growing up and attending drunken parties, there was a lot of aggressive interplay by drunk men and women. If women are going to go to these parties with drunk men while drinking themselves, then try to destroy their careers and reputations 37 years later it better be more than she got grabbed and mauled a little bit or got tea-bagged by an impaired drunken male laughing with his buddies. I better see a full on attack or some kind of gang attack thing. If that isn't going to be the level evidence by teens voluntarily attending drunken parties, then as far as I'm concerned let's turn the world into a Catholic School or Muslim Society where men and women are kept completely separated or chaperoned by adults at any risky party. Because if women can't have some tolerance for a young drunken testosterone driven male getting a little aggressive at a drunken party they chose to attend, then we have no reason to allow them to associate together when young because I don't know many young, testosterone driven males that don't do their best to get some sex at that age when attending a party with females.

If we're going to get this way, then we might as well ban alcohol from parties with males and females attending. Force both parties to dress up like Amish people. And not allow males and females to associate at all in any situation where both parties might be impaired.

I get tired of hearing about this one-sided crap when these people are voluntarily going to situations where this type of behavior is common. It's like me jumping into a pool with sharks while bleeding, then wondering why I got bit.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I just didn't think what she said happened was what I consider sexual assault. If behavior like that is going to be considered career ending at a later time in life, there would be a lot of men going down. I know when I was growing up and attending drunken parties, there was a lot of aggressive interplay by drunk men and women. If women are going to go to these parties with drunk men while drinking themselves, then try to destroy their careers and reputations 37 years later it better be more than she got grabbed and mauled a little bit or got tea-bagged by an impaired drunken male laughing with his buddies. I better see a full on attack or some kind of gang attack thing. If that isn't going to be the level evidence by teens voluntarily attending drunken parties, then as far as I'm concerned let's turn the world into a Catholic School or Muslim Society where men and women are kept completely separated or chaperoned by adults at any risky party. Because if women can't have some tolerance for a young drunken testosterone driven male getting a little aggressive at a drunken party they chose to attend, then we have no reason to allow them to associate together when young because I don't know many young, testosterone driven males that don't do their best to get some sex at that age when attending a party with females.

If we're going to get this way, then we might as well ban alcohol from parties with males and females attending. Force both parties to dress up like Amish people. And not allow males and females to associate at all in any situation where both parties might be impaired.

I get tired of hearing about this one-sided crap when these people are voluntarily going to situations where this type of behavior is common. It's like me jumping into a pool with sharks while bleeding, then wondering why I got bit.

I gotta tell you this story. When I was going to college back in the mid 70's at what is now EWU, I had as a study mate, a guy that wrestled for the school. They had won the NAIA National Championship that winter/spring and the team was having an end of the year party that my friend had invited me to. Eastern had a wrestler that was a 2 time National Champion in his weight division, around 135 lbs., and was the grossest, sloppiest drunk I've ever met. He was grabbing girls by the butt, by the boobs, and for some odd reason, by the time midnight came around, there wasn't one girl left at the party.

The rest of the team saw that he had chased off every girl, so they took the offender outside, handcuffed him to a tree, and pulled his pants/shorts off, and returned to the party. The cops showed up, and they were laughing their guts out, asked the guy in charge of the party to let him go, who's response was "oh, no, he hasn't been out there near long enough" to which the cops laughed even more. The cops finally convinced him to let him go.

Based on my experience of having gone to a number of large, drunken college-type parties during roughly the same era as Kavanaugh/Ford, if a girl ever was accosted by one of the guys at the party and made a physical/audible effort to get away, the other guys would react immediately and come to her aid. It would be very out of character for college-type men, drunk or sober, not to come to the defense of a woman in distress. Women generally don't get raped at a big party, they get raped when they're more or less alone, date rape, get into a car with a couple guys, etc. Kissed her, groped her, pressed himself against her, maybe. But an intelligent, reasonable person as she presented herself as being must have understood that in order for the assailant to rape her, he would have had to been able to disrobe himself, rip her clothes off while keeping her quiet, then commit the act, all with a party going on in the same house. In the situation she described, I do not see her stated fear that she might get raped as being believable.

RiverDog wrote:I gotta tell you this story. When I was going to college back in the mid 70's at what is now EWU, I had as a study mate, a guy that wrestled for the school. They had won the NAIA National Championship that winter/spring and the team was having an end of the year party that my friend had invited me to. Eastern had a wrestler that was a 2 time National Champion in his weight division, around 135 lbs., and was the grossest, sloppiest drunk I've ever met. He was grabbing girls by the butt, by the boobs, and for some odd reason, by the time midnight came around, there wasn't one girl left at the party.

The rest of the team saw that he had chased off every girl, so they took the offender outside, handcuffed him to a tree, and pulled his pants/shorts off, and returned to the party. The cops showed up, and they were laughing their guts out, asked the guy in charge of the party to let him go, who's response was "oh, no, he hasn't been out there near long enough" to which the cops laughed even more. The cops finally convinced him to let him go.

Guys usually do step up, but this guy sounds like a habitual offender, not Kavanaugh. The number of stories people could exchange about behavior at drunken parties would be nearly endless. I've seen the fights over girls because some dude got out of line with a girl while drunk. I've seen guys grope chicks, flirting, girls grope guys, one night stands, heard of gang bangs, lots of drugs, sometimes too old guys who buy the alcohol hitting on underage girls, guns pulled, guys eyebrows shaved if they passed out, passed out guys getting farts on their faces from bare ass guys, girls working guys for their nights drinks and hotel room, and the like. When men and women get together drinking, things can get crazy. I still believe if they're going to write people's careers off for what Kavanaugh was accused of doing, a lot of people would end up out of jobs or not advance in a lot of different fields.

I tried going to parties when I was younger just to see why people enjoyed them. I found out that when you don't drink or do drugs as I have never done either, parties seem like a stupid waste of time where a lot of bad stuff can happen. I avoided them. But at the same time they colored my opinion of women as their behavior at times was terrible, especially when drunk. Yet all I see is men getting blamed for all the terrible when I've seen women do messed up., abusive crap when the drugs and alcohol are going at parties.

Based on my experience of having gone to a number of large, drunken college-type parties during roughly the same era as Kavanaugh/Ford, if a girl ever was accosted by one of the guys at the party and made a physical/audible effort to get away, the other guys would react immediately and come to her aid. It would be very out of character for college-type men, drunk or sober, not to come to the defense of a woman in distress. Women generally don't get raped at a big party, they get raped when they're more or less alone, date rape, get into a car with a couple guys, etc. Kissed her, groped her, pressed himself against her, maybe. But an intelligent, reasonable person as she presented herself as being must have understood that in order for the assailant to rape her, he would have had to been able to disrobe himself, rip her clothes off while keeping her quiet, then commit the act, all with a party going on in the same house. In the situation she described, I do not see her stated fear that she might get raped as being believable.

I agree. If a woman makes a real effort to say no, others will step up. Which is why I did not consider this Kavanaugh information even close to rape or sexual assault. He or whoever was mistaken for him grabbed the girl, mauled her a bit, then let her go when she insisted she didn't want anything. That's not this extreme crap they pushing in the media in my opinion. Some of these people were equating it to rape and I don't agree with that. Ellen Barkin the actress was equating what Kavanaugh did to the guy who raped her for five hours when even the victim said the whole incident lasted about 15 to 30 seconds. Total nutso interpretation. What Clarence Thomas did back when he was confirmed was worse and I heard Biden stood up for him and helped him get confirmed.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Guys usually do step up, but this guy sounds like a habitual offender, not Kavanaugh.

The guy wasn't a sexual predator. His motivation wasn't to commit a rape, he was a clown that was looking for a laugh. I actually knew him pretty well as he was in one of my classes. I wasn't necessarily trying to compare him to Kavanaugh, just that it was a funny story that I felt like repeating and shows how things have changed since then. Can you image cops nowadays coming to a party where at least half of the participants were underage and saw a man handcuffed to a tree naked from below the waist? I don't think they would be laughing.

But you mentioned something else: Habitual offender, and it applies to both Biden and Kavanaugh. Sexual predators rarely stop with just one failed incident. That's why the charges against Weinstein and Cosby are more believable and the ones against Kavanaugh and Biden are not. Weinstein and Cosby both had dozens of accusers.

Aseahawkfan wrote:The number of stories people could exchange about behavior at drunken parties would be nearly endless.

Yup, especially when they occurred back in the 70's and 80's. Plus the stories, like all stories, have a habit of growing larger over time, which is why there can't be a lot of weight placed in one or two personal accounts when the passage of time is measured in decades.

Aseahawkfan wrote:What Clarence Thomas did back when he was confirmed was worse and I heard Biden stood up for him and helped him get confirmed.

The Clarence Thomas hearings were outrageous. There was just one accuser, and the accusation wasn't even of sexual assault. The accuser herself called it harassment, and even those charges were very lame as the accuser's own admitted behavior cast doubt on her version of events. Biden didn't exactly stand up for Thomas, he refused to call other women before his committee to testify on behalf of the accuser. In my opinion, the charges were so lame that they should have never seen the light of a hearing room in the first place let alone continue the circus by trying to validate them. Thomas had to play the race card by accusing Senators of a "high tech lynching" before he was able to turn the tide that was working against him. IMO Biden was a very good and effective chairman of that committee.

RiverDog wrote:The Clarence Thomas hearings were outrageous. There was just one accuser, and the accusation wasn't even of sexual assault. The accuser herself called it harassment, and even those charges were very lame as the accuser's own admitted behavior cast doubt on her version of events. Biden didn't exactly stand up for Thomas, he refused to call other women before his committee to testify on behalf of the accuser. In my opinion, the charges were so lame that they should have never seen the light of a hearing room in the first place let alone continue the circus by trying to validate them. Thomas had to play the race card by accusing Senators of a "high tech lynching" before he was able to turn the tide that was working against him. IMO Biden was a very good and effective chairman of that committee.

Glad you remember those hearings better than I do. I was 20 at the time and didn't care. I was pretty apolitical at that age and didn't follow politics much. D.C. seemed far outside my need to pay attention. I didn't start following politics until my late 20s when I had more money and started investing. I mostly wish the government would stay out of my social business and stop finding reasons to tax me. That has driven my politics more than anything else to this day as I don't like having people tell me what to do or taking my money for programs that seem mismanaged, slow, and not too useful that the government continues to ask for more money to continue. Government seems infested with borderline socialists at this point seeking to hand over unearned money to a bunch of folk that don't much deserve it foreign and domestic. I tire of that. If the government is going to invest money in social engineering, it should be social engineering I can get behind not handouts to corps, handouts to drug abusers, and handouts to other nations. I grow very weary of our tax dollars being used in questionable ways.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Glad you remember those hearings better than I do. I was 20 at the time and didn't care. I was pretty apolitical at that age and didn't follow politics much. D.C. seemed far outside my need to pay attention. I didn't start following politics until my late 20s when I had more money and started investing. I mostly wish the government would stay out of my social business and stop finding reasons to tax me. That has driven my politics more than anything else to this day as I don't like having people tell me what to do or taking my money for programs that seem mismanaged, slow, and not too useful that the government continues to ask for more money to continue. Government seems infested with borderline socialists at this point seeking to hand over unearned money to a bunch of folk that don't much deserve it foreign and domestic. I tire of that. If the government is going to invest money in social engineering, it should be social engineering I can get behind not handouts to corps, handouts to drug abusers, and handouts to other nations. I grow very weary of our tax dollars being used in questionable ways.

I've always followed politics. Some of my earliest memories of my childhood involves sitting with my dad as he read the newspaper or watched the evening news. When company came over, I always wanted to hang around the adults rather than go in the next room and play. As a result, at least on most topics, I developed a lot of my politics from my parent's opinions and values, mostly conservative, particularly my old man as he was much more outspoken about politics than mom was although I didn't share his view on everything, civil rights being the biggest example. I started voting in 1972 as I turned 18 just a few weeks ahead of the Nixon-McGovern election. Up until 2016, I voted for the R candidate in every Presidential election. Until 2018, I had never voted for a Democrat for national office and did so only to deny Trump a majority in the House. I would have voted for the Dem candidate for Senate in that same year had not it been for the Kavanaugh hearings.

Back to the OP. It's interesting that the Trump team is attempting to change the focus to the Chinese roll in the coronavirus crisis, undoubtedly at least one of the motivations being to distract the conversation away from the Administration's reaction and Trump's performance over the past 3 months. It does look like that they have some solid evidence of the Chinese intentionally downplaying the virus while they hoarded PPE's and other supplies, but I'm doubtful of Trump and the SOS's claim that the virus was a result of a laboratory experiment gone bad.

RiverDog wrote:Back to the OP. It's interesting that the Trump team is attempting to change the focus to the Chinese roll in the coronavirus crisis, undoubtedly at least one of the motivations being to distract the conversation away from the Administration's reaction and Trump's performance over the past 3 months. It does look like that they have some solid evidence of the Chinese intentionally downplaying the virus while they hoarded PPE's and other supplies, but I'm doubtful of Trump and the SOS's claim that the virus was a result of a laboratory experiment gone bad.

I don't know that I buy the lab thing either. First it was the Wuhan wet market. Now it's some Chinese lab. I don't think they know exactly where it came from or how long it has been here. They might never know or it will take more time to figure it out.

Trump can't even admit to shortcomings as the face of the nation. Most presidents would simply admit that testing was short and they are working to correct the problem, story usually ends there as people understand that during a global pandemic things weren't going to run perfectly. Trump can't even do that. He has to constantly put up the front that everything is perfect and they did a perfect job. Just ridiculous. Only a handful of Trump sycophants would buy that, just like the Trump haters want to blame Trump like he's the main reason the mistakes were made as though he did not listen to advisers at all. Whereas anyone watching this can see that most of the world was completely unprepared and we found out a whole lot of things that need some fixing like outsourced PPE, outsourced drugs, hiding information by Communist governments during global pandemic bad, masks should be worn, starting oil price war during global pandemic very bad, and maybe the lock downs and social distancing measures may have been an over-reaction if Sweden comes out of this about the same as everyone else with less economic damage. The basic summation is world not ready for global pandemic and needs to accumulate a bunch of data and build a much better plan should it happen again because what they did this time was disorganized, reactionary, panic-driven, economically destructive, and at the same time not proving one way or the other if it really worked as well as they are claiming it did. It will be real interesting when the real brains in our government do a deep analysis and hopefully have better recommendations next time that don't throw the economy off a cliff while screaming, "Sorry, we gotta kill you to save some lives. We don't how many, but regardless you gotta die economy to get this done." With Sweden looking on saying, "You guys really didn't have to do that. You're just making things worse."

I guess we'll see within the next few years if the plan is better and we can beat yet another virus and hazard in the nearly infinitely long list of them that have tried to take humanity out.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I don't know that I buy the lab thing either. First it was the Wuhan wet market. Now it's some Chinese lab. I don't think they know exactly where it came from or how long it has been here. They might never know or it will take more time to figure it out.

They'll figure it out eventually. From my limited understanding, the lab thing is about 90% false as they can pretty much prove that it wasn't man made or genetically modified. The problem is what to do about China. They're a 500 pound gorilla, meaning that any kind of sanctions or punitive measure won't have any effect on them and would likely be counter productive.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Trump can't even admit to shortcomings as the face of the nation. Most presidents would simply admit that testing was short and they are working to correct the problem, story usually ends there as people understand that during a global pandemic things weren't going to run perfectly. Trump can't even do that. He has to constantly put up the front that everything is perfect and they did a perfect job. Just ridiculous.

Which is why I can't stand Trump. Did you happen to see his tweet in response to Bush 43's comments about putting aside partisan politics in fighting the pandemic, ie whining because Bush didn't come out and support him in his impeachment trial? It's always about him.

On the flip side, I was very impressed when VP Mike Pence admitted that he should have worn a mask when he visited the Mayo Clinic the other day. You wouldn't catch Trump saying something like that in a million years.

Aseahawkfan wrote:The basic summation is world not ready for global pandemic and needs to accumulate a bunch of data and build a much better plan should it happen again because what they did this time was disorganized, reactionary, panic-driven, economically destructive, and at the same time not proving one way or the other if it really worked as well as they are claiming it did. It will be real interesting when the real brains in our government do a deep analysis and hopefully have better recommendations next time that don't throw the economy off a cliff while screaming, "Sorry, we gotta kill you to save some lives. We don't how many, but regardless you gotta die economy to get this done." With Sweden looking on saying, "You guys really didn't have to do that. You're just making things worse."

Hopefully Biden wins in November and is in the Oval Office when the investigations into the crisis begin. We have an opportunity in the form of this crisis to bring the world together on a number of fronts in addition to a coordinated effort to future pandemics. All Trump will do is look for ways to deflect blame from himself.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I guess we'll see within the next few years if the plan is better and we can beat yet another virus and hazard in the nearly infinitely long list of them that have tried to take humanity out.

The virus has changed the paradigm, perhaps permanently. No more buffets or salad bars, no more free samples at Costco. More internet sales and fewer shopping malls. The 5,000 passenger cruise ships could wind up in museums. COVID-19 will go down in history as a line of demarcation, much more so than 9/11 or Pearl Harbor.

RiverDog wrote:They'll figure it out eventually. From my limited understanding, the lab thing is about 90% false as they can pretty much prove that it wasn't man made or genetically modified. The problem is what to do about China. They're a 500 pound gorilla, meaning that any kind of sanctions or punitive measure won't have any effect on them and would likely be counter productive.

From what I understand of the new theory is that the lab was not creating bio-weapons, but was a medical study lab studying coroanviruses. Somehow one of the coronavirus strains they were studying was taken out of the lab in a human host by accident. The new narrative is China is not practicing good lab safety in their medical labs. I have heard they did confirm there is a medical study lab in Wuhan studying coronaviruses known as the Wuhan Institute of Virology. This place does indeed exist. Not sure of anything else. Most scientists are still of the mind that it was an animal to human transmission. Either way I doubt this was purposeful.

Which is why I can't stand Trump. Did you happen to see his tweet in response to Bush 43's comments about putting aside partisan politics in fighting the pandemic, ie whining because Bush didn't come out and support him in his impeachment trial? It's always about him.

On the flip side, I was very impressed when VP Mike Pence admitted that he should have worn a mask when he visited the Mayo Clinic the other day. You wouldn't catch Trump saying something like that in a million years.

Trump's a narcissistic ass. I don't know Pence well. He seems more political than Trump.

Hopefully Biden wins in November and is in the Oval Office when the investigations into the crisis begin. We have an opportunity in the form of this crisis to bring the world together on a number of fronts in addition to a coordinated effort to future pandemics. All Trump will do is look for ways to deflect blame from himself.

If he can't win, man, I don't know what to say. As I've said to you before I don't blame Trump for the coronavirus or the response given most of the world was in the same boat, but I do believe his disposition, combative pettiness, unwillingness to admit mistakes, and general attitude are terrible to have right now. No one wants to hear him promote himself, not apologize and reassure people that they are working to get things done, and basically be accountable to the American people as their leader. It's not because I expect him to personally take blame. He just doesn't seem to understand that it's not about him. He is leading a nation. Even if the CDC or his advisers make some mistakes or miscalculations, he has to assure the American people he is fixing them while at the same time protecting his subordinates so they can get their job done in an apolitical manner. He can't do that. He wants to be in the spotlight non-stop. It's pathetic. The left wing media keeps baiting him which isn't helping either. I don't like those scum either.

The virus has changed the paradigm, perhaps permanently. No more buffets or salad bars, no more free samples at Costco. More internet sales and fewer shopping malls. The 5,000 passenger cruise ships could wind up in museums. COVID-19 will go down in history as a line of demarcation, much more so than 9/11 or Pearl Harbor.

I can't say as I agree. I think they'll be some changes, but people are forgetful. Out of sight, out of mind. Cruise ships and planes will be around and people will start using them heavily again. People like to travel and have fun. Cruise ships, plane travel, and the like are things people want to do. I expect there will be a group paranoid for a year or two give or take some months, but humans will forget and move on just like they always do. I even know young people right now that will travel as soon as these stay at home orders are lifted. People are going to be itching to get going again.

I'm not going to say no time, but I don't think this will fundamentally change the behavior of people, but will perhaps change some laws and ways we monitor travel and movement kind of like we now have checkpoints at airports after 9/11 and The Patriot Act monitoring system. I figure they will start building coordinated data bases for tracking instances of infectious disease worldwide controlled by the United States including tracking patient movement and hospitalization. As well as having doctors monitoring infectious disease at airports and travel ports. We'll have a much better plan to lock down next time including contact tracing, quarantining, health monitoring, and the like. Which should enable a return to profitability and normalcy for industries like airlines and cruise ships. The government either spends the money to help those industries regain confidence in their safety or they lose those revenues. It's much wiser for them to help those companies provide safe monitoring than allow them to be destroyed for a long time.

That's more how it will go. If you travel outside the states, they may test you for the coronavirus and quarantine if you are positive. America will do more of the world monitoring than the WHO. We'll build a high tech, highly effective monitoring system like the Patriot System and show the WHO how to do these things right with big American money.

RiverDog wrote:The virus has changed the paradigm, perhaps permanently. No more buffets or salad bars, no more free samples at Costco. More internet sales and fewer shopping malls. The 5,000 passenger cruise ships could wind up in museums. COVID-19 will go down in history as a line of demarcation, much more so than 9/11 or Pearl Harbor.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I can't say as I agree. I think they'll be some changes, but people are forgetful. Out of sight, out of mind. Cruise ships and planes will be around and people will start using them heavily again. People like to travel and have fun. Cruise ships, plane travel, and the like are things people want to do. I expect there will be a group paranoid for a year or two give or take some months, but humans will forget and move on just like they always do. I even know young people right now that will travel as soon as these stay at home orders are lifted. People are going to be itching to get going again.

I'm not going to say no time, but I don't think this will fundamentally change the behavior of people, but will perhaps change some laws and ways we monitor travel and movement kind of like we now have checkpoints at airports after 9/11 and The Patriot Act monitoring system. I figure they will start building coordinated data bases for tracking instances of infectious disease worldwide controlled by the United States including tracking patient movement and hospitalization. As well as having doctors monitoring infectious disease at airports and travel ports. We'll have a much better plan to lock down next time including contact tracing, quarantining, health monitoring, and the like. Which should enable a return to profitability and normalcy for industries like airlines and cruise ships. The government either spends the money to help those industries regain confidence in their safety or they lose those revenues. It's much wiser for them to help those companies provide safe monitoring than allow them to be destroyed for a long time.

That's more how it will go. If you travel outside the states, they may test you for the coronavirus and quarantine if you are positive. America will do more of the world monitoring than the WHO. We'll build a high tech, highly effective monitoring system like the Patriot System and show the WHO how to do these things right with big American money.

And those new laws are likely to force the changes. I can easily see state and/or federal laws changing the way food is served in public. At the very least, I cannot see the self serve buffets, the county fair, or continental breakfasts surviving this. They'll have to feature a server, and the server is going to have to be licensed, required to take a few classes, pay a license fee. Food trucks, street vendors, even the guy selling hot dogs at baseball games might all fall under the application of new laws.

I agree with you that there's still going to be cruise ships, but it's unlikely that they'll be the 5,000 passenger behemoths that they've been floating lately. And they're going to be forced to change the way they do business. They'll have to have a well trained medical staff, based on passenger capacity, on board at all times, an infirmary where ill passengers can be isolated and monitored, perhaps requiring passengers to pass a brief exam before boarding or monitoring their temperature during the cruise. Cruise ships have had some notoriously bad health concerns before the coronavirus, from everything from the water they use in their swimming pools and spas to their ventilation systems.

It's going to be an interesting couple of years.

RiverDog wrote:And those new laws are likely to force the changes. I can easily see state and/or federal laws changing the way food is served in public. At the very least, I cannot see the self serve buffets, the county fair, or continental breakfasts surviving this. They'll have to feature a server, and the server is going to have to be licensed, required to take a few classes, pay a license fee. Food trucks, street vendors, even the guy selling hot dogs at baseball games might all fall under the application of new laws.

I agree with you that there's still going to be cruise ships, but it's unlikely that they'll be the 5,000 passenger behemoths that they've been floating lately. And they're going to be forced to change the way they do business. They'll have to have a well trained medical staff, based on passenger capacity, on board at all times, an infirmary where ill passengers can be isolated and monitored, perhaps requiring passengers to pass a brief exam before boarding or monitoring their temperature during the cruise. Cruise ships have had some notoriously bad health concerns before the coronavirus, from everything from the water they use in their swimming pools and spas to their ventilation systems.

It's going to be an interesting couple of years.

Stuff like that I can see. New food safety requirements, though food safety already had a lot of those. If you work in food, you had to pass a food safety course in Washington which was usually part of your initial training. They'll probably expand that course and enforce it more.

Hopefully it will lead to more employment in the long run and safety measures.

Did you see now that Wendy's is having trouble getting beef to 18% of its restaurants due to the meat processing plants shutting down? Costco started limiting meat packages to three per customer. I knew this crap would start when the media started blasting out about meat shortages creating a panic in that area like they've been doing since this started.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Did you see now that Wendy's is having trouble getting beef to 18% of its restaurants due to the meat processing plants shutting down? Costco started limiting meat packages to three per customer. I knew this crap would start when the media started blasting out about meat shortages creating a panic in that area like they've been doing since this started.

Yes, I saw that. No big surprise. I knew it was coming so I stocked up two weeks ago, so I have about a 6 month supply. I saw where 20% of the meat and poultry packers are down. We're going to have some shortages this summer, no doubt about it. It's not a critical item, but it's no longer going to be as cheap as it was, and could end up being one of those things that the crisis changes about our behavior. It's a labor intensive industry and with the changes they're going to have to make, it's inevitable that we're going to see much higher prices. Meat and chicken aren't that healthy for you and making it more expensive could force people to adapt healthier lifestyles.

There were similar shortages during WW2, and they had to turn to a rationing system. Each family received a book of ration stamps they needed to produce at a grocery store if they wanted to buy certain restricted food items. As a matter of fact, my mother worked for the Office of Price Control as prices had to be fixed to prevent gouging. If this gets bad, they may have to institute a similar system to prevent gouging and hoarding.

The predicted meat shortages is having an effect on my former employer. There are farmers that are plowing under new crops of potatoes as they didn't have a contract with a processor and know that they won't be able to sell anything on the open market. 90% of the potatoes grown in the Columbia Basin are processed into French fries, potato chips, hash browns, mashed potatoes etc, and many are sold in conjunction with hamburgers and other fast food items. There's going to be a huge surplus of potatoes this fall.

https://www.union-bulletin.com/ap/busin ... Sid-eOm6uk

RiverDog wrote:Yes, I saw that. No big surprise. I knew it was coming so I stocked up two weeks ago, so I have about a 6 month supply. I saw where 20% of the meat and poultry packers are down. We're going to have some shortages this summer, no doubt about it. It's not a critical item, but it's no longer going to be as cheap as it was, and could end up being one of those things that the crisis changes about our behavior. It's a labor intensive industry and with the changes they're going to have to make, it's inevitable that we're going to see much higher prices. Meat and chicken aren't that healthy for you and making it more expensive could force people to adapt healthier lifestyles.

Fatty meat and chicken aren't that healthy. Lean meat and chicken are healthy and have a lot nutrients. Bodybuilders rely on chicken breast. They have built entire healthy diets around lean beef. It really depends on amount you consume. Reducing the consumption of fast food burgers would definitely help people get a little healthier.

There were similar shortages during WW2, and they had to turn to a rationing system. Each family received a book of ration stamps they needed to produce at a grocery store if they wanted to buy certain restricted food items. As a matter of fact, my mother worked for the Office of Price Control as prices had to be fixed to prevent gouging. If this gets bad, they may have to institute a similar system to prevent gouging and hoarding.

The predicted meat shortages is having an effect on my former employer. There are farmers that are plowing under new crops of potatoes as they didn't have a contract with a processor and know that they won't be able to sell anything on the open market. 90% of the potatoes grown in the Columbia Basin are processed into French fries, potato chips, hash browns, mashed potatoes etc, and many are sold in conjunction with hamburgers and other fast food items. There's going to be a huge surplus of potatoes this fall.

https://www.union-bulletin.com/ap/busin ... Sid-eOm6uk

I saw the millions of pounds of potatoes going bad because that place you worked shutdown. It's that cascading effect that I talked about as to why they gotta keep those food supply lines open. Your plant shuts down, the farmers can't sell their potatoes and they rot, then our food supply is short. If it happens too many areas, we have real hunger problems.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I saw the millions of pounds of potatoes going bad because that place you worked shutdown. It's that cascading effect that I talked about as to why they gotta keep those food supply lines open. Your plant shuts down, the farmers can't sell their potatoes and they rot, then our food supply is short. If it happens too many areas, we have real hunger problems.

Some of those rotting potatoes stories aren't true, or at least there's more to it than they're telling you. Last year's crop was stored between September and early November, and with proper management, can last in storage for up to a year. Since they don't start loading storages with the new crop until September, there is no demand for storage space yet. Had those stories come out in July or August, they might have been more believable as they would need the storage space for the new crop that will be harvested in September. There may have been a farmer that decided on his own free will to unload some potatoes and donate them or he may have had a quality problem with them that isn't market related. In any event, the plant shutdowns has not yet required that storages be emptied.

The article I linked was of a farmer north of Pasco that had already planted new crop back in March, and because he's anticipating that there's going to be a glut of potatoes this season and won't be able to sell them for enough to reclaim his production costs, so he's plowing them under rather than spend money on fertilizers, pesticides, cultivation, etc as he grows them to maturity. He undoubtedly planted potatoes without a contract, which is a huge gamble. I've seen open potatoes sell for as little as $25/ton, or below the cost of production, and as much as $175/ton, depending on market conditions. Most growers sign a contract with a processor for the majority of their crop and have just a few that they will play the open market with just as people gamble in the stock market, so I doubt that specific farmer is hurting yet. That story is true. As a matter of fact, the farmer mentioned in the article is one that I used to work with when I was in the field department 15-20 years ago.

There's no danger of our food supply running out of potatoes, to the contrary. There is going to be a glut of them, and they can be harvested with very few workers. Fresh potatoes should be plentiful and cheap. Only about 10% of all potatoes grown in our region end up in the fresh market. The glut is going to be caused by the lack of food service demand...restaurants, schools, military, etc, that buy almost exclusively processed potatoes.

RiverDog wrote:Some of those rotting potatoes stories aren't true, or at least there's more to it than they're telling you. Last year's crop was stored between September and early November, and with proper management, can last in storage for up to a year. Since they don't start loading storages with the new crop until September, there is no demand for storage space yet. Had those stories come out in July or August, they might have been more believable as they would need the storage space for the new crop that will be harvested in September. There may have been a farmer that decided on his own free will to unload some potatoes and donate them or he may have had a quality problem with them that isn't market related. In any event, the plant shutdowns has not yet required that storages be emptied.

The article I linked was of a farmer north of Pasco that had already planted new crop back in March, and because he's anticipating that there's going to be a glut of potatoes this season, he's plowing them under rather than spend money on fertilizers, pesticides, cultivation, etc as he grows them to maturity. He undoubtedly planted potatoes without a contract, which is a huge gamble. I've seen open potatoes sell for as little as $25/ton, or below the cost of production, and as much as $175/ton, depending on market conditions. Most growers sign a contract with a processor for the majority of their crop and have just a few that they will play the open market with just as people gamble in the stock market, so I doubt that specific farmer is hurting yet. That story is true. As a matter of fact, the farmer mentioned in the article is one that I used to work with when I was in the field department 15-20 years ago.

Interesting. I imagine potatoes are like other commodities where the seller and buyer both want to lock in a price in advance to ensure the sale.

I can't imagine a potato shortage. They're so many of them. And I imagine putting them in bags is probably automated?

Same with milk. Dairy farms can operate with plenty of social distancing and tons of milk can be generated by a single farmer or two. My grandfather milked an entire heard of cows daily by himself. Just hooked up the milk suckers, made sure they had feed, and pushed them through when gone. 1000 of gallons plus of fresh milk daily pasteurized in a huge tank and shipped out the following day in a truck. Dairy is a very automated business.