Tiananmen Square 2.0?

[I-5]

It certainly is starting to feel like it in HK. My wife's parents were born there, and although their friends who live there say that the violence is centered in the main areas for now, it's shut down the airport for the 2nd straight day. Chinese media is portraying the protesters as terrorists, while the HK Police (not indirectly taking orders from Beijing, however reluctantly), is using tear gas and rubber bullets fired at point blank range. Taiwan is watching what is happening in HK with fear and anger I'm sure. China already is building an island in traditional Philippine waters, by simply calming that the body of water (South China Sea) bears their name, therefore they have a claim on it. Vietnam is now experiencing the same encroachment on their maritime waters by China. And so on.

The US (and most of Western Europe) is no stranger to imperialism in our histories, but the aggressors today really seem to be both China and Russia (the latter not just in Crimea, but now in Africa along with China). This thirst for resources and land is reminiscent of the recent past, and that was not a good thing. For now, the US maintains military superiority, but China has the sheer numbers and the will to close that gap, and that is scary. Where will this end?

[I-5]

My other question is, how much bad publicity can China take on the world stage, and ultimately will they be influenced by it? My gut is that they will strong arm their way into bringing HK all the way into the fold regardless of how the rest of the world reacts. The HK extradition legislation that led to the protests months ago was just the first domino. Surprisingly, the protests did have the effect of the governor of HK backing down from pushing across the legislation, and instead 'delaying' it...which is why the protests have continued. I've never been a protestor and don't support the majority of protests that I see, but this one I have to say I admire the citizens of HK for fighting for their rights to not be extradited for any reason that China sees fit. It may be futile, like Tiananmen Square, but doing nothing seems much worse.

[Aseahawkfan]

Chinese government has proven time and time again they don't care. Hong Kong will come in line or they will suffer. China usually brings in troops from some other part of the country if the the need arises to bring anyone in an area in line. World pressure only works on nations that care like America and the various other Western nations. Countries like Russia and China laugh at Western Democracy and freedom. They love waiting for our leaders to leave office while they maintain the same focus and leadership for decades and from administration to administration in China.

China wants to control its region of the world. It has a long relationship with Africa. The Chinese sold the fighting tribes in Rwanda the weapons they used to kill each other. They did not care. They even move into places like the Philippines, buy up the property and businesses, and ensure Chinese ownership using the locals as labor. They have a very pro-Chinese ethic that encourages them to build up their own first, which is a common cultural trait of successful cultures.

As far as war, China isn't much interested. War is America's game. China doesn't need it. They can sit patiently and wait out most problems without the destruction of war. They'll build up enough to protect their sovereignty, but why bother with war when they can just absorb the world with their 1.4 billion people. China has always been a very patient and methodical nation. They are ancient. They make every nation but India look young. They play a long game of chess with the aim of China being on top. They know they have what everyone else wants: 1.4 billion consumers and a massive and growing economy.

At some point everyone will have to learn Chinese and China will continue to build up its power. We can't do much to oppose them as the cost is far too high. They are the slow rolling, unstoppable object that is going to keep building momentum. They don't want war as numbers no longer matter except for consumption. The United States can massacre a billion people in short order from afar. We literally crushed two countries with a small percentage of our military might. We have far worse weapons to take out entire nations. That isn't China's game because having that many people is a burden in war feeding them, moving them, and supplying them against a military that would murder them en masse.

In summary, China will take control of Hong Kong regardless of external pressure. American corporations will not give up that growth market even to support human rights or protect life. China is much like Saudi Arabia for different reasons where they are untouchable and most politicians won't even try because of the practical economic consequences. So hope any friends you have in Hong Kong don't die and watch any freedom Hong Kong once had die as the world watches just as liberty did a long time ago in China. Liberty or freedom or human rights are not values the Chinese government values or protects.

[I-5]

Well said ASF. I totally agree with your long game anaylis. That's why I think ultimately, it's futile. It's no surprise those fashion brands that 'mistakingly' printed 2-shirts listing Hong Kong separate from China immediately apologized on their knees. They have too much to lose.

When it comes to Taiwan, the Taiwanese are more equipped and have the moxie to make it a very ugly process for China, so that is going to take longer. You're right about the Philippines, too. China is probably buying up Japan as we speak.

[RiverDog]

I haven't been too in touch with the precise conditions and issues involving the protests in Hong Kong. I once had a friend back in the '80's who was born and raised in the British section of Hong Kong that used to tell me what it was like growing up poor, that they bought their days' food fresh from a market off their dad's daily earnings and if he didn't work, they didn't eat that day. But that's the extent of my knowledge about Hong Kong other than Red China took control of the British sector prior to the turn of the century. I assume that one of the root causes of the protests is that many are old enough to recall British involvement in Hong Kong regard it as a positive vs their current form of government.

As ASF stated, communist governments aren't responsible to their people unless there's something that's going to directly affect them like a protest and the shutting down of airports that affect an industry such as tourism. They don't have a ballot box to express their opinions and make their representatives responsive. I don't see the protests as having a tangible, long term effect on the government as they can put it down as easily as they did at Tiananmen Square unless they can get the military to join their cause.

[idhawkman]

This is pretty cool. Amazing how many of the troops know what it was called.

https://www.facebook.com/OfficialLaughTherapy/videos/370501330333256/

[idhawkman]

Chinese government has proven time and time again they don't care. Hong Kong will come in line or they will suffer. China usually brings in troops from some other part of the country if the the need arises to bring anyone in an area in line. World pressure only works on nations that care like America and the various other Western nations. Countries like Russia and China laugh at Western Democracy and freedom. They love waiting for our leaders to leave office while they maintain the same focus and leadership for decades and from administration to administration in China.

China wants to control its region of the world. It has a long relationship with Africa. The Chinese sold the fighting tribes in Rwanda the weapons they used to kill each other. They did not care. They even move into places like the Philippines, buy up the property and businesses, and ensure Chinese ownership using the locals as labor. They have a very pro-Chinese ethic that encourages them to build up their own first, which is a common cultural trait of successful cultures.

As far as war, China isn't much interested. War is America's game. China doesn't need it. They can sit patiently and wait out most problems without the destruction of war. They'll build up enough to protect their sovereignty, but why bother with war when they can just absorb the world with their 1.4 billion people. China has always been a very patient and methodical nation. They are ancient. They make every nation but India look young. They play a long game of chess with the aim of China being on top. They know they have what everyone else wants: 1.4 billion consumers and a massive and growing economy.

At some point everyone will have to learn Chinese and China will continue to build up its power. We can't do much to oppose them as the cost is far too high. They are the slow rolling, unstoppable object that is going to keep building momentum. They don't want war as numbers no longer matter except for consumption. The United States can massacre a billion people in short order from afar. We literally crushed two countries with a small percentage of our military might. We have far worse weapons to take out entire nations. That isn't China's game because having that many people is a burden in war feeding them, moving them, and supplying them against a military that would murder them en masse.

In summary, China will take control of Hong Kong regardless of external pressure. American corporations will not give up that growth market even to support human rights or protect life. China is much like Saudi Arabia for different reasons where they are untouchable and most politicians won't even try because of the practical economic consequences. So hope any friends you have in Hong Kong don't die and watch any freedom Hong Kong once had die as the world watches just as liberty did a long time ago in China. Liberty or freedom or human rights are not values the Chinese government values or protects.

I do believe that Africa is going to become a very big problem for China within the next 12 months.

[Aseahawkfan]

I do believe that Africa is going to become a very big problem for China within the next 12 months.

How? Explain to me how a nation that doesn't give a crap and will murder you if you get too far out of line is going to be troubled by Africa? I want to hear this theory. Then we can see if the prediction proves true.

[idhawkman]

How? Explain to me how a nation that doesn't give a crap and will murder you if you get too far out of line is going to be troubled by Africa? I want to hear this theory. Then we can see if the prediction proves true.

This one you are just going to have to wait out the 12 months for in order to see if it is the problem I referred to. Sorry, I can't give you more at this time.

[Aseahawkfan]

This one you are just going to have to wait out the 12 months for in order to see if it is the problem I referred to. Sorry, I can't give you more at this time.

You can't even say which nation in Africa could possibly give China trouble? You must have a nation or two in mind. I'm looking at a map and not seeing how a bunch of nations with no substantial navy can trouble China.

[RiverDog]

This one you are just going to have to wait out the 12 months for in order to see if it is the problem I referred to. Sorry, I can't give you more at this time.

So why can't you tell us? Are you some sort of CIA agent or have access to classified information that would prevent you from answering their questions? If that's true, you shouldn't even be disclosing that which you already have in public forum.

[c_hawkbob]

This one you are just going to have to wait out the 12 months for in order to see if it is the problem I referred to. Sorry, I can't give you more at this time.

So why can't you tell us? Are you some sort of CIA agent or have access to classified information that would prevent you from answering their questions? If that's true, you shouldn't even be disclosing that which you already have in public forum.

"I can tell ya, but then I'd hafta kill ya"

[idhawkman]

This one you are just going to have to wait out the 12 months for in order to see if it is the problem I referred to. Sorry, I can't give you more at this time.

You can't even say which nation in Africa could possibly give China trouble? You must have a nation or two in mind. I'm looking at a map and not seeing how a bunch of nations with no substantial navy can trouble China.

The countries China is in would be the first clue to look at who will give them problems.

[idhawkman]

This one you are just going to have to wait out the 12 months for in order to see if it is the problem I referred to. Sorry, I can't give you more at this time.

So why can't you tell us? Are you some sort of CIA agent or have access to classified information that would prevent you from answering their questions? If that's true, you shouldn't even be disclosing that which you already have in public forum.

"I can tell ya, but then I'd hafta kill ya"

Exactly.

[Aseahawkfan]

The countries China is in would be the first clue to look at who will give them problems.

Those problems will not be significant to China. The African nations China is in are not a significant portion of their economic growth. And militarily they are insignificant as a threat to China.