Presidential Debate

[River Dog]

For not watching the debates, Riv, I think that's a pretty fair summary of how it went. Harris was definitely baiting him when she told him that he was fired by 81 million people, and mentioned his small crowd sizes and people leaving early out of boredom. If it was a cartoon, Trump's ears would have been steaming. Trump's handlers saw that coming a mile away, but could do nothing to stop him from taking the bait. What it says though is how easily he loses his composure, a quality no one wants to see in the most powerful office on earth. It was also interesting that despite the rules, ABC left Trump's mic on when he wouldn't finish his turn...which ended up showing more of his anger. So i the end, both Trump and Kamala got what they wanted - live mics.

The Taylor Swift endorsement after the debate is significant, as were the 330k new voter registrations that were recorded the next day using the special URL she posted on her Instagram. I'm guessing Travis Kelce is a Trump guy, but who knows? That would make for an interesting endorsement if he decides to come out with one. If anything, Kamala needs to work on the bro vote. If she can do that, she's well on her way. Unfortuantely, a lot of young males I think are attracted to the toxic appeal of Trump as a pretend strongman.

Swift's endorsement will only make a difference if it changes the math in the 7 swing states, specifically the two big ones, PA and MI. That's where the election will be won or lost. I want to see Harris win and any support is welcome, but Lord All Mighty, please tell me that people don't vote based on the endorsement of a pop star. The problem is that Americans are as a whole stupid, so it wouldn't surprise me at all of that's the case.

[c_hawkbob]

There are Swifties in every state, and importantly most are not accounted for in any of the polls as far as left/right/center. Most are considered off the couch, a demographic not otherwise likely to vote at all.

[c_hawkbob]

Voter registration has reportedly increased by 400-500% in the last two days, according to TargetSmart senior adviser Tom Bonier.

He told CBS News on Thursday that those numbers are in part thanks to what’s been dubbed the “Swift Effect” after the singer-songwriter endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Tim Walz in this year’s presidential election.

“It’s really unlike anything I’ve seen,” Bonier said. “We’re seeing a [400] or 500% increase. And people come in, trying to register to vote immediately following the debate and in that period after Taylor Swift posted on Instagram.”

Additionally, he noted that voter registration isn’t slowing down. In fact, “we’ve seen it continue through the last two days into today”

Again, largely new uncounted upon votes, voters that likely otherwise would not be voting.

[River Dog]

From what I'm reading, there is little doubt about who won the debate. Even Republican pollsters are admitting it. Trump himself has said as much by his actions, immediately changing his mind on a 2nd debate saying that he's not going to participate after expressing a willingness earlier. And I noticed that he's throwing some more crap on the wall to see if it will stick. He's now saying that he supports ending the tax on overtime pay, a foolish proposal that like most of what Trump says, sounds good on its face but that has not been fleshed out. The man will say anything to entice voters to vote for him.

Whether or not the debate has moved the needle remains to be seen. So far, the results from the talking heads are somewhat mixed, but most think that it could have at least a minor, positive effect for Harris.

I saw a factoid this morning that is a bit sobering and demonstrates why I'm so cautious if not pessimistic about Harris's chances. It shows the RCP averages at this point in time in the last two elections:

This Day In History: September 13, 2020: Biden +7.4 | September 13, 2016: Clinton +2.4

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... -vs-harris

Biden looked like he could win in a landslide and barely won. Clinton looked like she might win then lost in a close election. Today's RCP average has Harris with a 1.5% lead.

One thing that might help Harris is the current inflation numbers. They came in at 2.5%, which is very good, the lowest in some time and below the Fed's target, which should respond by lowering interest rates and making housing more affordable. Core inflation, which backs out the volatile food and energy factors, is a little higher at 3.2%, but still in good shape. If I'm Harris, I'd be trumpeting that news as it will be something that moderates and undecided voters will respond to.

[Uppercut]

Need Stephen A to moderate a third debate.

[I-5]

I agree with you, Riv, Harris' lead is too small. Trump has a history of beating the odds, so she needs to be at a higher margin than that. Republicans are good at voting in a block. Democrats and never-Trumpers need to do their part.

[River Dog]

I agree with you, Riv, Harris' lead is too small. Trump has a history of beating the odds, so she needs to be at a higher margin than that. Republicans are good at voting in a block. Democrats and never-Trumpers need to do their part.

Now you know why it is that I fear that Trump will win. The polls have a history of underestimating Trump voters by around .5%-1.5%, and those swing state numbers and the fact that Harris has lost her momentum is a huge concern. The same thing happened in 2016 and 2020. In September of 2016, Hillary looked like a sure thing and in September of 2020 Biden looked like he was going to win by a landslide. You know the saying: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. We'll see next week if the debate made any difference in the race, but I'm beginning to think that it hasn't moved the needle very much.

If I'm Harris, I'd start hammering home the latest inflation numbers. The economy/inflation is the #1 issue that voters have identified, and that 2.5% rate of inflation is very good news that she needs to take advantage of, and so far, I haven't heard her saying anything about it.