Seahawks at 49'ers Wild Card Preview
Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2023 1:56 pmArticle from the Seahawks Athletic writer previewing the game for your reading pleasure:
For Seahawks to upset ‘freaking loaded’ 49ers, their stars must shine brightest
By Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jan 12, 2023
RENTON, Wash. — The Seahawks partied all night on Sunday, their hard work over a 17-game regular season rewarded with a trip to the postseason. By Monday morning, it was time to lock in. There’s no time to waste when preparing for a team as good as the 49ers.
“They’re loaded,” Seattle coach Pete Carroll said Monday afternoon. “And they’re loaded and healthy and on a roll and about as hot as you can possibly get.”
Despite playing with a seventh-round rookie at the game’s most important position, the 49ers do in fact have one of the most stacked rosters in football.
They made the midseason move to add ex-Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey, a one-time Pro Bowler and first-team All-Pro after putting up more than 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in 2019. He made his San Francisco debut in Week 7 and played only 23 offensive snaps, totaling eight carries and two targets in the team’s 44-23 drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs.
San Francisco hasn’t lost a game since. And McCaffrey has been on fire.
From Weeks 8 to 17, McCaffrey ranked 10th among running backs in rushing yards (708), seventh in rushing touchdowns (six) and seventh in first-down carries (37). In that same span, he led all running backs in receiving yards (440) while ranking second in receptions (50) and receiving touchdowns (four).
McCaffrey is just one of four 49ers with a 1,000-yard receiving season under his belt. Brandon Aiyuk hit that mark (1,015) this season and added eight touchdowns. Tight end George Kittle, a four-time Pro Bowler and one-time first-team All-Pro, has done it twice. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel had more than 1,400 yards last year in his All-Pro season. The 49ers have an unbelievably dangerous set of skill players.
“Because of the amount of weapons that (coach Kyle Shanahan) has, you have to account for everybody, so it makes it a difficult challenge,” Seattle defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt said. “It’s not like you can rotate a coverage or do things where you can eliminate one guy. You have to defend all 11 guys out there on the field. He does a great job of scheming up, calling it, and everything else, so like I said, it’s a great challenge that we have in front of us.”
With that cast of skill guys, it’s no wonder Brock Purdy, the final pick in the 2023 draft, has come in and kept the show running smoothly. All he must do is run point guard and dish the ball to his playmakers. Since coach Kyle Shanahan took over in 2017, San Francisco leads the league in yards after catch per reception (6.36). With Purdy as the starter, that number is 6.77, third-most behind Kansas City and Carolina.
“Their offense is structured to get the ball in the guys’ hands, and they are really quick with their throws,” Carroll said. “Ball gets on the perimeter a lot, quickly, to give guys a chance to catch and run. They are a really effective catch-and-run team. You look at their yardage after catch, they are as effective as anybody has ever been.”
And that’s just the offense.
Defensive end Nick Bosa led the league in sacks with 18.5, and he has made the Pro Bowl every year of his career that he’s played a full season (he tore his ACL two weeks into 2020). He may win NFL Defensive Player of the Year in February. Fred Warner, a one-time All-Pro who is the best coverage linebacker in football, makes it hard to throw over the middle against San Francisco’s defense. Ditto for fellow inside linebacker Dre Greenlaw.
TruMedia tracks “splash” plays, loosely defined as plays that are wins for the defense (TFLs, sacks, pass breakups, turnovers, drive-killing stops on third and fourth down, etc.). Both Warner and Greenlaw ranked top 20 among linebackers. Strong safety Talanoa Hufanga ranked sixth among defensive backs in that same category.
Carroll wasn’t blowing smoke when he called 49ers “freaking loaded in every direction.”
But the Seahawks aren’t exactly bereft of talent. Which is why this matchup comes down to whether their stars show up on Saturday.
DK Metcalf is over 1,000 receiving yards for the second time in three years. One of the best single-game performances of his career — a 12-catch, 161-yard, two-touchdown day in 2020 — came against the 49ers. Tyler Lockett is over 1,000 yards receiving for the fourth straight year. Running back Kenneth Walker III topped 1,000 yards on the ground despite not entering the starting lineup until Week 6.
Geno Smith belongs in the star power discussion as well. He ranked top 10 among quarterbacks in passing yards (eighth), touchdown rate (seventh), completion percentage (first), yards per attempt (ninth) and QBR (sixth). He was a top-10 quarterback this season.
If those stars shine, Seattle has a shot at an upset.
Lockett has played his part against the 49ers this season. In two games, he recorded 175 yards and 16 catches on 20 targets with nine receptions for first downs; the rest of Seattle’s pass catchers had 13 total first-down receptions. Much is riding on the shoulders of Metcalf, the team’s highest-paid by player. He has been held in check against the league’s top defense. In two games, he produced 90 yards and 11 receptions on 15 targets with only four first-down receptions. His longest catches went for only 13 yards.
The 49ers’ defense is reminiscent of the Legion of Boom-era Seahawks in that they rely largely on simplicity. They rush four, play coverage and, in the case of guarding Metcalf and Lockett, trust their corners to win their matchups against the opponent’s top targets.
“They pretty much make you beat their defense,” Carroll said. “They have enough variety in their scheme that allows them to have some answers to do stuff, but they are pretty much going to play what they play, and they are going to rely on the rush be to the factor, is kind of how they do it. Not as exotic as some other teams, but they have their ways.”
Beating the 49ers is contingent on Smith and Metcalf picking their spots properly and winning the battles on the outside against San Francisco’s cornerbacks. It’s been tough sledding thus far. Against Emmanuel Mosley in Week 2, Metcalf was targeted twice and had one catch for 12 yards; the other pass was broken up. Against Charvarius Ward in Week 15, Metcalf caught four balls on six targets for 33 yards. Those numbers must be way up on Saturday if Seattle wants to pull this one out.
“One thing I am confident in is DK and Shane (Waldron) and our ability to find ways to get him the football,” Smith said. “For me it’s just going out there, making my reads and throwing the football and trusting the guys around me. Every week, Shane comes up with a great plan, and us as players, we’ve got to make sure we bring it to life and execute.”
Seattle’s defensive stars need to step up as well. Quandre Diggs, who on Wednesday was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week, is the only player on Seattle’s defense with multiple Pro Bowl honors (he’s been voted in each of the last three years). He’s one of two defensive captains (along with nose tackle Al Woods), and his leadership and playmaking have been critical to a defense that is playing three first-time starters at cornerback and has started five different strong safeties.
The Seahawks need Diggs at his best with the ball in the air. He is tied for second on the team with four interceptions, and he’s had at least three in each of the last six seasons. He’d have more if not for three dropped interceptions, two of which came in losses to San Francisco. Seattle can’t afford those types of plays on Saturday. His Week 2 drop wasn’t all that consequential, seeing as it came in the end zone on fourth-and-9 from the Seattle 39; he actually would have cost Seattle field position by catching it.
But the second one — in Week 15 — could have been a game-changer. It was third-and-11 from the San Francisco 36, the Seahawks trailing 7-3 at the two-minute warning in the first half. Purdy threw a ball over the middle that hit Diggs in the chest before bouncing to the turf.
Had he caught it, Seattle’s offense would have had the ball in 49ers territory. Instead, Seattle began its next drive from the 19, and it ultimately ended when San Francisco recovered a Travis Homer fumble and returned it to the Seattle 6-yard line. McCaffrey scored two plays later.
Homer’s ball security isn’t directly tied to Diggs’ hands, but the point is that against a team as good as San Francisco with so many big-time playmakers on both sides of the ball, there’s virtually no room for “almost” plays. Any turnover can be the one that swings the game in Seattle’s favor.
The same applies to rookie Tariq Woolen, who has effectively become one of Seattle’s stars in his rookie campaign. He held a share of the interception title through the regular season and could have been alone atop that leaderboard had he caught the interception Mike White tried to give him in Week 17, or the one Baker Mayfield tried to give him on Sunday. Pass breakups are fine; turnovers change games.
There are factors that will decide the game, of course. Pressure on the quarterback matters. Neither kicker can afford to be impacted by inclement weather. Efficiency on third down and in the red zone will be critical.
But at the end of the day, big-time players make big-time, game-changing plays. So the primary question for the Seahawks is whether their big-time players can outshine San Francisco’s on Saturday with the season on the line.
For Seahawks to upset ‘freaking loaded’ 49ers, their stars must shine brightest
By Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jan 12, 2023
RENTON, Wash. — The Seahawks partied all night on Sunday, their hard work over a 17-game regular season rewarded with a trip to the postseason. By Monday morning, it was time to lock in. There’s no time to waste when preparing for a team as good as the 49ers.
“They’re loaded,” Seattle coach Pete Carroll said Monday afternoon. “And they’re loaded and healthy and on a roll and about as hot as you can possibly get.”
Despite playing with a seventh-round rookie at the game’s most important position, the 49ers do in fact have one of the most stacked rosters in football.
They made the midseason move to add ex-Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey, a one-time Pro Bowler and first-team All-Pro after putting up more than 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in 2019. He made his San Francisco debut in Week 7 and played only 23 offensive snaps, totaling eight carries and two targets in the team’s 44-23 drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs.
San Francisco hasn’t lost a game since. And McCaffrey has been on fire.
From Weeks 8 to 17, McCaffrey ranked 10th among running backs in rushing yards (708), seventh in rushing touchdowns (six) and seventh in first-down carries (37). In that same span, he led all running backs in receiving yards (440) while ranking second in receptions (50) and receiving touchdowns (four).
McCaffrey is just one of four 49ers with a 1,000-yard receiving season under his belt. Brandon Aiyuk hit that mark (1,015) this season and added eight touchdowns. Tight end George Kittle, a four-time Pro Bowler and one-time first-team All-Pro, has done it twice. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel had more than 1,400 yards last year in his All-Pro season. The 49ers have an unbelievably dangerous set of skill players.
“Because of the amount of weapons that (coach Kyle Shanahan) has, you have to account for everybody, so it makes it a difficult challenge,” Seattle defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt said. “It’s not like you can rotate a coverage or do things where you can eliminate one guy. You have to defend all 11 guys out there on the field. He does a great job of scheming up, calling it, and everything else, so like I said, it’s a great challenge that we have in front of us.”
With that cast of skill guys, it’s no wonder Brock Purdy, the final pick in the 2023 draft, has come in and kept the show running smoothly. All he must do is run point guard and dish the ball to his playmakers. Since coach Kyle Shanahan took over in 2017, San Francisco leads the league in yards after catch per reception (6.36). With Purdy as the starter, that number is 6.77, third-most behind Kansas City and Carolina.
“Their offense is structured to get the ball in the guys’ hands, and they are really quick with their throws,” Carroll said. “Ball gets on the perimeter a lot, quickly, to give guys a chance to catch and run. They are a really effective catch-and-run team. You look at their yardage after catch, they are as effective as anybody has ever been.”
And that’s just the offense.
Defensive end Nick Bosa led the league in sacks with 18.5, and he has made the Pro Bowl every year of his career that he’s played a full season (he tore his ACL two weeks into 2020). He may win NFL Defensive Player of the Year in February. Fred Warner, a one-time All-Pro who is the best coverage linebacker in football, makes it hard to throw over the middle against San Francisco’s defense. Ditto for fellow inside linebacker Dre Greenlaw.
TruMedia tracks “splash” plays, loosely defined as plays that are wins for the defense (TFLs, sacks, pass breakups, turnovers, drive-killing stops on third and fourth down, etc.). Both Warner and Greenlaw ranked top 20 among linebackers. Strong safety Talanoa Hufanga ranked sixth among defensive backs in that same category.
Carroll wasn’t blowing smoke when he called 49ers “freaking loaded in every direction.”
But the Seahawks aren’t exactly bereft of talent. Which is why this matchup comes down to whether their stars show up on Saturday.
DK Metcalf is over 1,000 receiving yards for the second time in three years. One of the best single-game performances of his career — a 12-catch, 161-yard, two-touchdown day in 2020 — came against the 49ers. Tyler Lockett is over 1,000 yards receiving for the fourth straight year. Running back Kenneth Walker III topped 1,000 yards on the ground despite not entering the starting lineup until Week 6.
Geno Smith belongs in the star power discussion as well. He ranked top 10 among quarterbacks in passing yards (eighth), touchdown rate (seventh), completion percentage (first), yards per attempt (ninth) and QBR (sixth). He was a top-10 quarterback this season.
If those stars shine, Seattle has a shot at an upset.
Lockett has played his part against the 49ers this season. In two games, he recorded 175 yards and 16 catches on 20 targets with nine receptions for first downs; the rest of Seattle’s pass catchers had 13 total first-down receptions. Much is riding on the shoulders of Metcalf, the team’s highest-paid by player. He has been held in check against the league’s top defense. In two games, he produced 90 yards and 11 receptions on 15 targets with only four first-down receptions. His longest catches went for only 13 yards.
The 49ers’ defense is reminiscent of the Legion of Boom-era Seahawks in that they rely largely on simplicity. They rush four, play coverage and, in the case of guarding Metcalf and Lockett, trust their corners to win their matchups against the opponent’s top targets.
“They pretty much make you beat their defense,” Carroll said. “They have enough variety in their scheme that allows them to have some answers to do stuff, but they are pretty much going to play what they play, and they are going to rely on the rush be to the factor, is kind of how they do it. Not as exotic as some other teams, but they have their ways.”
Beating the 49ers is contingent on Smith and Metcalf picking their spots properly and winning the battles on the outside against San Francisco’s cornerbacks. It’s been tough sledding thus far. Against Emmanuel Mosley in Week 2, Metcalf was targeted twice and had one catch for 12 yards; the other pass was broken up. Against Charvarius Ward in Week 15, Metcalf caught four balls on six targets for 33 yards. Those numbers must be way up on Saturday if Seattle wants to pull this one out.
“One thing I am confident in is DK and Shane (Waldron) and our ability to find ways to get him the football,” Smith said. “For me it’s just going out there, making my reads and throwing the football and trusting the guys around me. Every week, Shane comes up with a great plan, and us as players, we’ve got to make sure we bring it to life and execute.”
Seattle’s defensive stars need to step up as well. Quandre Diggs, who on Wednesday was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week, is the only player on Seattle’s defense with multiple Pro Bowl honors (he’s been voted in each of the last three years). He’s one of two defensive captains (along with nose tackle Al Woods), and his leadership and playmaking have been critical to a defense that is playing three first-time starters at cornerback and has started five different strong safeties.
The Seahawks need Diggs at his best with the ball in the air. He is tied for second on the team with four interceptions, and he’s had at least three in each of the last six seasons. He’d have more if not for three dropped interceptions, two of which came in losses to San Francisco. Seattle can’t afford those types of plays on Saturday. His Week 2 drop wasn’t all that consequential, seeing as it came in the end zone on fourth-and-9 from the Seattle 39; he actually would have cost Seattle field position by catching it.
But the second one — in Week 15 — could have been a game-changer. It was third-and-11 from the San Francisco 36, the Seahawks trailing 7-3 at the two-minute warning in the first half. Purdy threw a ball over the middle that hit Diggs in the chest before bouncing to the turf.
Had he caught it, Seattle’s offense would have had the ball in 49ers territory. Instead, Seattle began its next drive from the 19, and it ultimately ended when San Francisco recovered a Travis Homer fumble and returned it to the Seattle 6-yard line. McCaffrey scored two plays later.
Homer’s ball security isn’t directly tied to Diggs’ hands, but the point is that against a team as good as San Francisco with so many big-time playmakers on both sides of the ball, there’s virtually no room for “almost” plays. Any turnover can be the one that swings the game in Seattle’s favor.
The same applies to rookie Tariq Woolen, who has effectively become one of Seattle’s stars in his rookie campaign. He held a share of the interception title through the regular season and could have been alone atop that leaderboard had he caught the interception Mike White tried to give him in Week 17, or the one Baker Mayfield tried to give him on Sunday. Pass breakups are fine; turnovers change games.
There are factors that will decide the game, of course. Pressure on the quarterback matters. Neither kicker can afford to be impacted by inclement weather. Efficiency on third down and in the red zone will be critical.
But at the end of the day, big-time players make big-time, game-changing plays. So the primary question for the Seahawks is whether their big-time players can outshine San Francisco’s on Saturday with the season on the line.