Analytics and Chargers' loss last night

[trents]

If Brandon Staley had used some common sense last night and kicked field goals in one or two of those "fourth and one" situations instead of relying on "analytics" all three times his team would have come out a winner. It's not the same as when you are fourth and one on the 40.

[RiverDog]

If Brandon Staley had used some common sense last night and kicked field goals in one or two of those "fourth and one" situations instead of relying on "analytics" all three times his team would have come out a winner. It's not the same as when you are fourth and one on the 40.

I was just thinking about that and was going to find the thread I had started from earlier in the season on the subject.

One of my problems with analytics is that it is not team specific. "The book" may say go for it on 4th and short, but if you have the worst 3rd/4th down conversion percentage in the league, is it still a good odds move to go for it? Or how about if your FG kicker had been missing easy FG's in warm-ups or if your punter has been placing punts consistently inside the 5 yard line for the past couple of weeks? It also does not take into account things like weather conditions, if you're playing in a dome, at sea level or mile high, 20 or 90 degress, and other environmental factors.

IMO it's useful information for a coach to use it as part of his decision making, but it shouldn't be relied on exclusively, and I think that the Chargers were guilty of that last night.

[trents]

It seems to me that Mahomes is not the player he was three, four years ago when he was this freak athletic magic man. I don't know whether he's lost something or if teams have adjusted to him. He missed several simple screen tosses last night. Looks like he's hurrying his throws sometimes.

But man, Justin Herbert has lightening in his arm. Some of those passes he squeezed into his receivers tightly covered were amazing! Just darts!

[RiverDog]

It seems to me that Mahomes is not the player he was three, four years ago when he was this freak athletic magic man. I don't know whether he's lost something or if teams have adjusted to him. He missed several simple screen tosses last night. Looks like he's hurrying his throws sometimes.

But man, Justin Herbert has lightening in his arm. Some of those passes he squeezed into his receivers tightly covered were amazing! Just darts!

Yeah, last night there was one short pass in particular that Mahomes threw, unobstructed and perhaps 10 yards away that Mahomes might have gotten 3/4 of the way, almost like he decided at the last moment not to throw it.

When the Chiefs started out the season so horribly this year, there were a lot of people making the same observations about Mahomes that you have. The Chief's resurgence, led mainly by their defense getting their act together, has caused that talk to die down somewhat, but he's definitely not the same player he was a couple years ago.

I'm still on a wait and see mode regarding Herbert.

[TriCitySam]

I didn't get it watching last night. Unless you can dominate, it doesn't seem wise to leave 9 points on the table in what is going to be a close game. Cost them the game.

[RiverDog]

It almost seems gimmicky, like watching Chip Kelly's perpetual hurry up offense.

[NorthHawk]

If Brandon Staley had used some common sense last night and kicked field goals in one or two of those "fourth and one" situations instead of relying on "analytics" all three times his team would have come out a winner. It's not the same as when you are fourth and one on the 40.

It crossed my mind, too but in reality it would have changed the game so we really don’t know what would
have happened. KC might have run the ball back for a TD instead of starting near their goal line and changed
the entire complexion of the game.

[Uppercut]

Whatever happened Travis Kelce was doing a rerun of George Kittle

[trents]

It crossed my mind, too but in reality it would have changed the game so we really don’t know what would
have happened. KC might have run the ball back for a TD instead of starting near their goal line and changed
the entire complexion of the game.

When your D was playing as goods a LA's was last night you take the points IMO.

[RiverDog]

When your D was playing as goods a LA's was last night you take the points IMO.

That's what I don't like about analytics, or at least in its pure form. It does not take into account your entire team's performance. It's looking at one tiny aspect of game management, ie the success of a single play. It doesn't look at the defense's ability to hold the other team or the punter's ability to place the ball inside the 5.

[NorthHawk]

It also doesn't look at the history in the game. If you failed on 2 attempts, do you continue to go for it? When do you say to yourself 'We don't have their number this game'?

[RiverDog]

I've been watching the Red Zone today, and there's been a whole bunch of incidents where teams went against conventional wisdom and went for it on 4th down. I just watched the Falcons and Ravens both get stopped inside the 2 yard line in the first quarter of their games. Falcons ended up getting their FG as they held the Niners then took advantage of the field position, but still....