HawkShack.com

It's a rare early start for us, 10:05am PT. At 2-10, the Texans are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs so on paper and in a normal year this game would be classified as a cake walk. But this has proven to be anything but a "normal year", and indeed, Houston is fully able to pull off the upset as the Titans found out a couple weeks ago.

Our injury report has running backs Adrian Peterson and Travis Homer both out, which means that we should be seeing a lot of Alex Collins and Rashaad Penny. Jamal Adams was placed on IR earlier this week. C Kyle Fuller and OT Brandon Shell are both out, S Quandre Diggs is listed as questionable.

Our odds of making the playoffs are rated at 3%, same as they were last Saturday before we beat the Niners. I'll be multi tasking, streaming the Hawks game live on my tablet while watching the Red Zone, of which I've really come to like. No stress game as there's nothing more than pride for this team to play for.

Heads up Davis mills is described as dog meat but his last start was vs the Rams oct 31 and he threw for 310 yards with 2 TD passes and a pick . Earlier in the season he had 330 yards 3 TDs and no picks vs the Pats . 140 qbr. No wins but this kid can sling it . Watch out for the okie dokie tomorrow . Something tells me this won’t be easy

when you're 4-8 and as inconsistent as the Seahawks have been, no game will ever be 'easy'...and I don't care who the QB is. We tend to give career games to the most unknown QBs in the league. I'm happy tomorrow will be a 8am start on the "RedZone" for me so I only need to see a few plays to know what happened.

this game would be classified as a cake walk.

Is there ever really a cake walk in the NFL? Especially this year?

I-5 wrote:Is there ever really a cake walk in the NFL? Especially this year?

I've been watching the game a long time and I've never seen a season like this one.

Ru ro

The problem with this game is Penney, hes a bust, and now there will be people on this site that will think he's not, he is.

obiken wrote:The problem with this game is Penney, hes a bust, and now there will be people on this site that will think he's not, he is.

He did look very good, as did our offensive line of whom punched some nice holes for Penny to run through. However, we have to note that this was the Texans, and they have the worst run defense in the league.

Penney is a big fast shifty back . Injuries have derailed his career but 3 years ago there was a 2 game stretch where he made Chris Carson look pedestrian . Then the knee which too over a year then every nagging thing . I could see he hasn’t lost the speed in his opportunities last week and had a hunch this might be a good week for him which was an understatement . Not sure how you see this as a bad thing Obi. A healthy Penney is a great thing for Seattle in any number of ways

This game checked virtually all the boxes. I actually enjoyed it without needing nitroglycerin pills.

Hawktawk wrote:Penney is a big fast shifty back . Injuries have derailed his career but 3 years ago there was a 2 game stretch where he made Chris Carson look pedestrian . Then the knee which too over a year then every nagging thing . I could see he hasn’t lost the speed in his opportunities last week and had a hunch this might be a good week for him which was an understatement . Not sure how you see this as a bad thing Obi. A healthy Penney is a great thing for Seattle in any number of ways

Yeah, plenty of talent, but unlike college has had the injury bug as a pro. Wasn't a bad pick in my opinion, but certainly an unlucky one.

The problem with this game is Penney, hes a bust, and now there will be people on this site that will think he's not, he is.

I think bust can be defined more than one way. If you're healthy but can't produce, I'd say that's a bust. If you have produced but can't stay healthy, the results are similar, but that's a different kind of bust. So far, Penny has been the latter.

If he can get and stay in better shape, he looks like he could be productive NFL back.

I-5 wrote:I think bust can be defined more than one way. If you're healthy but can't produce, I'd say that's a bust. If you have produced but can't stay healthy, the results are similar, but that's a different kind of bust. So far, Penny has been the latter.

By that same criteria, we haven't had a back that wasn't a bust since Lynch.

I-5 wrote:If he can get and stay in better shape, he looks like he could be productive NFL back.

This. I remember the Hawk coaching staff had challenged him in the off season a couple of years ago to get in better shape and they commented he had come to camp "in the best shape we have seen him." Then he promptly got injured. I think he is one of those players who has big talent and potential but struggles with self-discipline. Of course, some injuries can prevent you from getting in shape. Perhaps the most remarkable thing about the game today was the Penny took 16 snaps without injury.

This was a Pete Carol kind of game today as far as his formula for winning goes. Stout defense, effective running game, efficient passing game even if the passing stats were not gaudy. But as others have noted, the competition likely had a lot to do with it.

TriCitySam wrote:Yeah, plenty of talent (Penny), but unlike college has had the injury bug as a pro. Wasn't a bad pick in my opinion, but certainly an unlucky one.

That's my take. A lot of people complain because we took Penny over NIck Chubb, but I'm not one of them.

We declined to pick up Penny's 5th year option, so he's a free agent after this season. These last 4 games will be a good try out period to see if we want to bring him back in 2022.

I’ve always thought Penny had some serious upside. He has an explosive ability to take it to the house. Unfortunately, my opponent played Penny today and likely knocked me out of the playoffs:( Bittersweet!

Stream Hawk wrote:I’ve always thought Penny had some serious upside. He has an explosive ability to take it to the house. Unfortunately, my opponent played Penny today and likely knocked me out of the playoffs:( Bittersweet!

I remember his breakout game 3 years ago at the season end and I was drooling at the mouth for a deep playoff run . Then the bad injury and this is by far the best he’s looked .

Stream Hawk wrote:I’ve always thought Penny had some serious upside. He has an explosive ability to take it to the house. Unfortunately, my opponent played Penny today and likely knocked me out of the playoffs:( Bittersweet!

Hawktawk wrote:I remember his breakout game 3 years ago at the season end and I was drooligat the mouth for a deep playoff run . Then the bad injury and this is by far the best he’s looked .

The next 4 games is going to be a damned if we do, damned if we don't.

If Penny plays well, we'll want to try to resign him as Carson is just too injury prone and we have to have a top shelf running back. But as a free agent, he'll likely draw quite a bit of interest if he performs like he did today.

It's going to be an interesting offseason.

We may not see much of Carson again. Neck injuries tend to be career enders. I'm thinking of Mac Strong, Cam Chancelor and Cliff Aveill.

I'm thinking we could resign Penny without much strain on the budget. I think a lot of teams will stay away from him because of his injury proneness. You would hate to see the guy go to some other NFC west opponent and get healthy. Anyway, this next game with the Rams will tell us more about Penny and about any improvement our O line/running game may seem to have displayed today.

Nice win.

They were using a Jumbo package this game. I can't remember seeing it very often during Pete's reign. I could be wrong though.
It really helped open some holes in the run game and on Penny's last TD run Eskridge had a great block in the middle of the field
that helped Penny break in to the open.
It's encouraging, but we will have to see how well they do against better defenses like the Rams and Cards.

I am back. Had some logging on trouble and it took some time and help from Yoder to be able to post again. I have been reading, however.

Penny may turn into a decent back, which is welcome as he has a nice combination of speed, size, and can block. When he was drafted I was somewhat dismayed at taking a RB. While some lament that we should have taken Chubb, my take is that they should have taken Harold Landry for his pass rush (I confess that I am saying that in retrospect, not because I was focusing on him at the time). I wanted us to take a guy for the trenches or a corner, but I will be happy if Penny does well.

It is good to see Russell back in form, and to get a win in such a dismal season. Curhan filled in well at RT, a plus, and the DB's stepped up after a bad first half.

David Mills looks like a good QB for the future, but doesn't have much around him.

trents wrote:By that same criteria, we haven't had a back that wasn't a bust since Lynch.

Agreed. Though Carson came the closest.

trents wrote:This. I remember the Hawk coaching staff had challenged him in the off season a couple of years ago to get in better shape and they commented he had come to camp "in the best shape we have seen him." Then he promptly got injured. I think he is one of those players who has big talent and potential but struggles with self-discipline. Of course, some injuries can prevent you from getting in shape. Perhaps the most remarkable thing about the game today was the Penny took 16 snaps without injury.

This was a Pete Carol kind of game today as far as his formula for winning goes. Stout defense, effective running game, efficient passing game even if the passing stats were not gaudy. But as others have noted, the competition likely had a lot to do with it.

From what we can see, Penny has a rare talent for running. But based on him being injured a lot, and the fact he injured injured his hamstring after one play where he didn't get hit or fall awkwardly, it seems pretty clear that conditioning is part of his problem. Even today he doesn't look like in great shape. It would be amazing if DK offered to be his workout partner this offseason...how cool would that be?

Old but Slow wrote:I am back. Had some logging on trouble and it took some time and help from Yoder to be able to post again. I have been reading, however.

Penny may turn into a decent back, which is welcome as he has a nice combination of speed, size, and can block. When he was drafted I was somewhat dismayed at taking a RB. While some lament that we should have taken Chubb, my take is that they should have taken Harold Landry for his pass rush (I confess that I am saying that in retrospect, not because I was focusing on him at the time). I wanted us to take a guy for the trenches or a corner, but I will be happy if Penny does well.

It is good to see Russell back in form, and to get a win in such a dismal season. Curhan filled in well at RT, a plus, and the DB's stepped up after a bad first half.

David Mills looks like a good QB for the future, but doesn't have much around him.

Great to see you back, ObS! You must have had to create a new account. We've had a couple very good football minds join our tight knit little group since you've been shipwrecked.

It wasn't so much that I wanted Chubb instead of Penny, it's that I didn't like dedicating a #1 pick to a player not expected to play 3 downs.

It will be interesting to see how this impacts our playoff chances. As most of you know, to say that before the game that we had two chances, slim and none, was an understatement. They were 3% starting the week. We got some help with WFT and a little psychological boost in that with the Giants and Bears losing, there's finally an NFC team not named the Lions with a worse record than we have.

But with the Vikings, Saints, Falcons, and Niners winning, it likely canceled out to some degree what traction we might have gotten yesterday. We'll see how the Rams look tonight against the Cards as they're our next opponent. They were on a bit of a slide but might have gotten it figured out last week except that it might not be a great indicator as the Jags have been spinning out of control for most of the season.

The Saints, Vikings, and WFT, all teams with better records, own tiebreakers against us and our win yesterday against the AFC Texans did nothing to improve our 2-6 conference record, worst amongst teams competing for the wild card.

When watching Penny play lately he's reminding me more of Mike Davis in his body type but with better speed.
But like said above, he seems to be injury prone, so getting another premier RB is of high importance as we don't know what the future holds for Carson.

4 weeks left though . This is what we know . The hawks can’t lose period . Beyond the playoffs there’s a league longest 9 years with a winning record on the line . There are jobs on the line from coaches to players , contracts , futures . Really too bad we couldn’t figure out how to beat 2 crippled teams with backups but oh well . If enough bad teams wind up on the same bottom line some of those head to heads cancel. Not holding a breath for a spot even if we win out .

If Russ ever needed to open up a can of whip azz on a team it’s the Rams . It’s always hard , he always seems freaked out , gets knocked silly and forgets how to play football . The WC last year was the absolute worst playoff performance of the PC era except maybe the divisional vs Atlanta in 16. Then in the first game vs the Rams this year more of the same . 7 points and a pick in 3 quarters before his injury and 15 yards total offense in the 3rd quarter . If Russ could channel a little Steve Largent you would think he would want to be able to say payback is a mofo. If he’s true to form most of his games vs Rams lately the drama will be over on this messed up season by next Sunday afternoon .

I took a closer look at the NFC playoff picture. Of the 5 teams ahead of us for the 6th seed (having granted the 5th seed to either the Cards or Rams), 4 of them own tiebreakers over us as WFT, the Saints, and the Vikings all beat us head-to-head and the Eagles have 6 conference losses to our 8. The only tiebreaker we own is vs. the Niners, and they have a 2 game lead over us. Even if we win out, here's what would have to happen for us to get the 6th seed:

The Vikings would have to lose 2 of their last 4 games (Bears x2, Rams, Packers)

WFT needs to lose 2 of their last 4 (Eagles x2, Giants, Cowboys)

Saints lose 2 of their last 4 (Bucs, Dolphins, Panthers, Falcons)

Eagles lose 2 of their last 4 (WFT x2, Giants, Cowboys)

The Niners would have to lose 2 of their last 4 (Falcons, Texans, Titans, Rams)

There's other, more freakish scenarios, like the 5-8 Panthers winning out, ties, etc, but I didn't take those into consideration.

That's 5 teams that would all have to go .500 or worse. One of them is bound to do better than that.

NorthHawk wrote:When watching Penny play lately he's reminding me more of Mike Davis in his body type but with better speed.
But like said above, he seems to be injury prone, so getting another premier RB is of high importance as we don't know what the future holds for Carson.

I’ve thought all along had Penney not had the injury he might have made PC look smart . I’m impressed he still retains the speed . He was sudden to the second level unlike any back we’ve had in quite a while . And as was pointed out he looks like he’s not as lean as he could be . He’s going to get a much sterner test next weekend .It’s probably fools gold but I’m not gonna root against him . Barring some sort of injury if we see something similar next 4 games and he stays in one piece I cut Carson . We can’t trust him . He’s been gone in critical stretches almost every year.

RiverDog wrote:I took a closer look at the NFC playoff picture. Of the 5 teams ahead of us for the 6th seed (having granted the 5th seed to either the Cards or Rams), 4 of them own tiebreakers over us as WFT, the Saints, and the Vikings all beat us head-to-head and the Eagles have 6 conference losses to our 8. The only tiebreaker we own is vs. the Niners, and they have a 2 game lead over us. Even if we win out, here's what would have to happen for us to get the 6th seed:

The Vikings would have to lose 2 of their last 4 games (Bears x2, Rams, Packers)

WFT needs to lose 2 of their last 4 (Eagles x2, Giants, Cowboys)

Saints lose 2 of their last 4 (Bucs, Dolphins, Panthers, Falcons)

Eagles lose 2 of their last 4 (WFT x2, Giants, Cowboys)

The Niners would have to lose 2 of their last 4 (Falcons, Texans, Titans, Rams)

There's other, more freakish scenarios, like the 5-8 Panthers winning out, but I didn't take those into consideration.

That's 5 teams that would all have to go .500 or worse. One of them is bound to do better than that.

Every one of those scenarios is reasonable though . The most unlikely imo is Seattle running the table . I suspect it crashes down Sunday . Love to be very wrong

Hawktawk wrote:Every one of those scenarios is reasonable though . The most unlikely imo is Seattle running the table . I suspect it crashes down Sunday . Love to be very wrong

I agree that every one is reasonable on it's own. The probability of them all happening, which they'd need to, strikes me as minuscule. But not as minuscule as the probability of Seattle running the table, as you note. Even giving the Hawks a 1% chance of making the playoffs seems generous, and I'm not being hyperbolic.

I’ve thought all along had Penney not had the injury he might have made PC look smart . I’m impressed he still retains the speed . He was sudden to the second level unlike any back we’ve had in quite a while . And as was pointed out he looks like he’s not as lean as he could be . He’s going to get a much sterner test next weekend .It’s probably fools gold but I’m not gonna root against him . Barring some sort of injury if we see something similar next 4 games and he stays in one piece I cut Carson . We can’t trust him . He’s been gone in critical stretches almost every year.

He might have had a good start to his career, but when he was a rookie, he was much less decisive as a runner, almost hesitant at times.
Now it seems he understands how he has to run in the NFL.
Like you said his injury history is a concern, so I think we have to get a premier RB in the draft this year so there is some continuity at the
position when the injuries pile up.

I agree that every one is reasonable on it's own. The probability of them all happening, which they'd need to, strikes me as minuscule. But not as minuscule as the probability of Seattle running the table, as you note. Even giving the Hawks a 1% chance of making the playoffs seems generous, and I'm not being hyperbolic.

It's been such a weird year, though so I wouldn't put a lot of money on it not happening.
But in reality I don't see us beating both the Rams and Cards so the chances are pretty slim.

Hawktawk wrote:Every one of those scenarios is reasonable though . The most unlikely imo is Seattle running the table . I suspect it crashes down Sunday . Love to be very wrong

Oly wrote:I agree that every one is reasonable on it's own. The probability of them all happening, which they'd need to, strikes me as minuscule. But not as minuscule as the probability of Seattle running the table, as you note. Even giving the Hawks a 1% chance of making the playoffs seems generous, and I'm not being hyperbolic.

And that, my friends, is the elephant in the room. All 5 of them going .500 or worse? No way.

We did get some help yesterday. WFT losing to the Cowboys set them back a peg, but the Niners and Vikings winning likely negated that advantage. I doubt that our odds increased to above 10%. But as North Hawk said, a lot of weird things have happened this season.

I remember the 10-6 Hawks in 1986 needing only one if about 4 teams to LOSE to get in . Several were underdogs including the Frank Gantz coached chiefs playing the Pittsburgh Steelers . KC put a stake in Seattle’s heart winning despite not scoring a point on offense , going off on special teams and a defensive score . Anything can happen . Especially this season . At least right now the hawks appear to have stabilized very well. Next week will tell. If we win it’s entirely likely we enter week 18 with a chance at 9-8.