by Agent 86 » Fri Oct 01, 2021 9:15 am
Seahawks’ Russell Wilson-Pete Carroll era at critical juncture ahead of games vs. 49ers and Rams
By Michael-Shawn Dugar 4h ago 13
Pete Carroll preaches to his players and coaches that every game is a championship opportunity. It’s similar messaging to the “neutral thinking” teachings Russell Wilson learned under his late mental conditioning coach Trevor Moawad. In essence, the goal is to treat every moment, no matter how grand, like a normal occasion and execute accordingly.
But this isn’t a normal week for Seahawks and they know it. Which is why Carroll on Wednesday said there’s a “serious” vibe in the building following Seattle’s 30-17 loss to Minnesota.
Seattle’s players know being 1-2 isn’t good enough. They know having one of the worst defenses in the league is unacceptable. They know the offense disappearing in the second half is uncharacteristic. They know the NFC West is the best division in football and has two of the five remaining undefeated teams in the league. They know that losing on the road to the 49ers Sunday would mean the worst four-game start to the season since 2011. And that’s before playing the Rams just days later, on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 5.
“They want this to go the way our expectations are designed,” Carroll said of his team this week. “That means we have to play better and everybody knows that. I think, coming out of the meetings on Monday, showing the film, showing where the concerns were, the plays we could have made, and the decisions we could have made, everybody is tuned in.
“We are trying to tune in forever, but I think there is a little bit of a different feel about it. They want to prove it; they want to prove that we are on the right track and that we are going to win a bunch of different games.”
It’s early in the season but this is as close as it gets to a make-or-break stretch of football in early October. The Rams (3-0) and Cardinals (3-0) play each other Sunday afternoon, meaning the division will have one undefeated team at the conclusion of the weekend. Seattle falling to 1-3 would put it in a dangerous place, one the Seahawks haven’t experienced since 2011, when they had a three-game losing streak in Weeks 7-9 and ultimately missed the playoffs.
“Going into two divisional games, a short week after this game, you want to make sure you put your best foot forward,” linebacker Bobby Wagner said. “Make sure you do everything possible to make sure you are not the reason or you’re not in your way of success, especially from a defensive standpoint. We’ll treat this game like we would normally treat this game, but we need to have more focus than we’ve had.”
This is an especially important two-game stretch for Carroll and Wilson, the two most important people in the organization. Remember, the drama that unfolded this offseason is on pause, not fully resolved. Wilson subtly reminded us of this when he disagreed with Carroll’s assessment of his decision-making in overtime by highlighting the only thing that may salvage the relationship between the two franchise icons: winning.
Carroll being a defensive-minded head coach whose aversion to a pass-first offense runs antithetical to how the quarterback sees himself isn’t all that problematic … when they’re winning. Carroll overseeing personnel while proving to be poor at drafting offensive linemen and Legion of Boom replacements is no biggie … when they’re winning. Carroll making fourth-down decisions based on the benefit of the doubt he awards the defense and his kicking game instead of his $140 million quarterback is fine … when they’re winning.
But when the Seahawks aren’t winning? This QB-coach pairing feels less and less like a stable partnership.
“It’s Better to Be Feared,” a Patriots book detailing the deterioration of the relationship between the greatest quarterback-coach combo in NFL history is set to release this month, so it’s never too early to consider how crucial the Carroll-Wilson dynamic is for the fate of this franchise. Win these next two games and Seattle leaves Lumen Field on Oct. 7 singing “Hakuna Matata.” Lose these next two games and Wilson may have another “Dan Patrick Show” interview scheduled on the morning of Oct. 8. A split in these next two games is probably the most likely outcome, but it’s hard to gauge what that means for this team’s future. A 2-3 start with a 1-1 divisional record through five games is nothing to write home about but it keeps hands off the panic button, especially if one of those wins is over the Rams.
With that context in mind, this is to date the most important two-game stretch of the Wilson-Carroll era.
The reasons for pessimism are abundant. Seattle ranks 22nd in turnovers forced. Tre Flowers, one of the starting outside cornerbacks, either doesn’t trust or fully understand the coverage scheme – and he’s been in it longer than any of the other corners. Seattle’s best pass rusher, Carlos Dunlap, isn’t performing like the best pass rusher. And although he’s been effective in other areas, Jamal Adams’ impact as a rusher hasn’t been felt yet either. Carroll this offseason hired a new offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, to be better than his predecessor at adjusting to defenses, and so far Seattle has one of the worst second-half offenses in the league. To be fair, that isn’t entirely tied to second-half adjustments – halftime is only about 10 minutes, after all – but such a drop-off in production from one half to the next is tragically bad.
Still, there are reasons for optimism. Wilson is performing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league and if he’s under center the Seahawks will have an efficient and explosive passing offense, which strongly correlates to team success. Seattle also has an efficient rushing attack. Despite a lack of production from its highest-paid rushers, the pass rush is eighth in quarterback pressures and 12th in sacks.
Plus, this version of the 49ers doesn’t pose the same threat as the 2019 unit that took the league by storm. Those 49ers were buoyed by a dominant run game and a suffocating pass defense. San Francisco is still sorting out its injury situation at running back and the run game as a whole has been good (not great); however, the defense is average at best and riddled with injuries in the secondary. This is a very winnable game for Seattle, which is a 3-point underdog.
Veteran players will almost always say the right things in times of turmoil but perhaps these words from two of the team’s highest-paid players will instill optimism entering the weekend.
“I love adversity and I know our football team does too,” Wilson said. Asked why he loves adversity, Wilson replied, “It’s all I’ve ever known.”
Speaking confidently about the defense entering this matchup, Adams stated, “Starting this week, things will change.”
The X-factor will be …
Jamal Adams. As noted earlier this week, Adams’ performance in the opposing backfield means a great deal to this defense. Adams has made his mark in other areas of the scheme, but aside from generating turnovers, there’s arguably no greater way to impact an offense than a negative play on the quarterback. Sack rates and pressure rates are largely controlled by quarterbacks and since Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t take sacks at a high rate, this will be a challenge for Adams and the rest of Seattle’s front line. But if Adams gets to Garoppolo even just once or twice in a key situation, that’s huge for Seattle’s hopes of pulling the upset.
I expect a big game from …
Deebo Samuel. The third-year receiver is uniquely built to thrive in an offense quarterbacked by Garoppolo because of how dangerous he is with the ball in his hands. Samuel is second in the league in receiving yards with 334 and 184 of those yards have come after the catch, the highest mark in the league among wideouts, according to TruMedia. Samuel ranks 70th among receivers in air yards per target but he’s fifth in yards after catch per reception (9.2). In other words, he turns nothing into something as well as anyone in the league. San Francisco isn’t much of a downfield passing team but defending deep balls hasn’t really been Seattle’s problem this year; as Carroll implied earlier this week, the underneath stuff is what’s killing them and Samuel is dangerous in that regard.
“I really see him as the star player for them,” Carroll said. “They utilize him in a fashion where they are always looking to get him the football, positioning him to make the plays, and counting on him to do the things that he’s done well. They really have used him well in the sense that you can see what he has that’s unique. He’s really physical, he’s fast enough to run away from guys, and he’s got a great competitive streak about him.”
The Seahawks win if …
Someone goes full “2019 Jadeveon Clowney” on the 49ers. Week 10 of the 2019 season is the last time Seattle beat San Francisco with Garoppolo starting and finishing the contest. Clowney in that game put together one of the best individual performances of the season, recording 11 of Seattle’s 24 quarterback pressures, five of the team’s 10 QB hits and a strip-sack. Garoppolo as a quarterback can go from serviceable to shaky when he’s knocked around, as the Packers demonstrated in their Week 2 win against the 49ers. If Wagner, Dunlap or Adams can have one of those impact performances Sunday, then it won’t matter what the offense does in the second half. San Francisco will have trouble keeping up.
The 49ers win if …
Their secondary holds up against Wilson. I’m not sure The Athletic’s website has the bandwidth to list all of the injuries San Francisco is dealing with in the secondary but to put it succinctly: Seattle is set up to feast on that unit. San Francisco’s best cover corner is going to be either Emmanuel Moseley, who gave up 120 yards and two scores against DK Metcalf in Week 8 last season, or 33-year-old Josh Norman playing with two bruised lungs. If, somehow, that unit slows Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in this game, then the 49ers should come out victorious.
Game prediction
49ers 27, Seahawks 26
This is a tough one to call, and for the gamblers at home I’m technically taking the points. It’s hard to give Seattle’s defense the benefit of the doubt as currently constructed, though, even if its offense should easily score points on Sunday.