Elevated Expectations: When making the playoffs stops being

[RiverDog]

I read a really good article that captures a good part of my sentiment regarding the Seahawk's current 'rut', for the lack of a better word. Here's some snippets:

On the Seahawks side, we’ve had our own “rut” relatively speaking. In fairly quick time Carroll and Schneider turned a talent-depraved roster into a Super Bowl contender and ultimately a champion (nearly a repeat champion). But over the past six seasons the team has just three playoff wins to its name — two of them to Teddy Bridgewater and a semi-retired Josh McCown by a riveting combined score of 27-18. They haven’t led for one second of either of their last two playoff games, a jarring stat with Russell Wilson at quarterback.

Seattle has played the fourth-most playoff games since 2015 yet rank 20th in win percentage. In virtually every game the offense has struggled to score and/or put together a complete performance, while the defense has only generated two takeaways. Wilson has become a better passer and overall quarterback through these years, while the overall roster has simultaneously experienced a quantifiable decline from its lofty heights.

Which is what makes the 2021 season so critical. Wilson is here to stay for now, Carroll is still the coach, but if two playoff wins is once again too much to ask, then the alarm bells will be ringing and the calls for regime change will be louder than ever before. Missing the playoffs with a healthy Wilson and a largely healthy team would put Seattle on the precipice of DEFCON 1.

The bar gets raised when high-level success is sustained, and at some point consistent postseason appearances don’t cut it anymore when the appearances are akin to cameos than starring roles.

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2021/6/6/225 ... qABurA6Fbg

[NorthHawk]

That’s what I and others were getting at in earlier threads. For me, I’ve reached
the point of no longer accepting getting into the playoffs qualifying as a successful season.
I don’t think we’ve really improved this year, so I doubt we will see a deep playoff run unless
we get a lot of support from Lady Luck.

[RiverDog]

That’s what I and others were getting at in earlier threads. For me, I’ve reached
the point of no longer accepting getting into the playoffs qualifying as a successful season.
I don’t think we’ve really improved this year, so I doubt we will see a deep playoff run unless
we get a lot of support from Lady Luck.

I'm with you regarding your position on no longer accepting simply getting into the playoffs or winning a division title as an acceptable performance. However, I am less certain than you are regarding our prospects. There's too much going on in other corners of the league for me to express any degree of confidence or pessimism. How will Mathew Stafford do for the Rams? Will Aaron Rodgers return to the Packers? Will JJ Watt be a difference maker in Arizona? Who's going to quarterback the Niners?

I do think that we have the personnel to go deep into the playoffs, perhaps the Super Bowl, if they all stay healthy and perform to their maximum capabilities. That's a big "IF".

[Aseahawkfan]

Getting into the playoffs and winning the division is a yearly goal. Once there you get your shot at the big game. It is rare you will make it or win unless your team is New England under Tom Brady. It has been this way for most of NFL history. There are a handful of teams that have won multiple Super Bowls. There are a few more teams that have been to the Super Bowl more than once. We've been to the Super Bowl 3 times with 1 win. Two of of those times within the last 10 years.

I don't much consider it elevated expectations so much as delusional. There are 32 teams in the NFL. Only one gets to hoist the Super Bowl trophy every year. It is an extremely rare event.

[c_hawkbob]

I take the posited question to be "When making the playoffs stops being enough"...

Answer: never. The whole point of the regular season is to qualify for, and optimize you placement in the playoffs. Once there anything can happen, make the playoffs enough times and the championships will come. Those chances absolutely will not improve by making the playoffs fewer times.

The point is the time to make a change will never be while you are still getting to the dance every year. That time comes when you find yourself home for the holidays a couple years in a row.

[obiken]

Playoff teams are a dime a dozen, Championship class is a different drill. WE will make the Playoffs again, and we will lose again, period.

[Aseahawkfan]

Playoff teams are a dime a dozen, Championship class is a different drill. WE will make the Playoffs again, and we will lose again, period.

A dime a dozen? Then why is this the most often we've made the playoffs in our history?

[NorthHawk]

Aren’t they adding 2 more teams to the playoffs?
If there were fewer teams making the playoffs I would consider making the playoffs a bigger deal.

[RiverDog]

Aren’t they adding 2 more teams to the playoffs? If there were fewer teams making the playoffs I would consider making the playoffs a bigger deal.

That's part of it, too. 14 out of 32 teams, close to half the league, now qualify for the playoffs. Obi's "dime a dozen" comment is close to the mark when that many teams qualify for the postseason, including a lot of .500ish seasons. Last season, WFT won the NFC East with a 7-9 record and the Bears got a wild card with an 8-8 record. With that high of a percentage of teams advancing to the post season, a .500 team making the playoffs will be the "new normal" rather than the exception it used to be.

That means that Dennis Erickson, who posted three 8-8 seasons and one 7-9 season as a Seahawks HC, is suddenly a successful coach with an acceptable level of performance. Sorry, guys. Simply making the playoffs isn't that notable of an accomplishment anymore.

[Aseahawkfan]

That's part of it, too. 14 out of 32 teams, close to half the league, now qualify for the playoffs. Obi's "dime a dozen" comment is close to the mark when that many teams qualify for the postseason, including a lot of .500ish seasons. Last season, WFT won the NFC East with a 7-9 record and the Bears got a wild card with an 8-8 record. With that high of a percentage of teams advancing to the post season, a .500 team making the playoffs will be the "new normal" rather than the exception it used to be.

That means that Dennis Erickson, who posted three 8-8 seasons and one 7-9 season as a Seahawks HC, is suddenly a successful coach with an acceptable level of performance. Sorry, guys. Simply making the playoffs isn't that notable of an accomplishment anymore.

What about winning the division and going 12-4?

Or when the 9-7 Giants went to the playoffs, then beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl 2011?

I can't agree with you guys. The first goal is always make the playoffs, win the division, then a game at a time hopefully winning the Super Bowl. It may take years of missing the playoffs again for Seattle fans to appreciate what it is like to be in the position we're in. Not many teams are in the position to be perennial contenders.

[RiverDog]

That's part of it, too. 14 out of 32 teams, close to half the league, now qualify for the playoffs. Obi's "dime a dozen" comment is close to the mark when that many teams qualify for the postseason, including a lot of .500ish seasons. Last season, WFT won the NFC East with a 7-9 record and the Bears got a wild card with an 8-8 record. With that high of a percentage of teams advancing to the post season, a .500 team making the playoffs will be the "new normal" rather than the exception it used to be.

That means that Dennis Erickson, who posted three 8-8 seasons and one 7-9 season as a Seahawks HC, is suddenly a successful coach with an acceptable level of performance. Sorry, guys. Simply making the playoffs isn't that notable of an accomplishment anymore.

What about winning the division and going 12-4?

How many of those 12 wins came against teams with a winning record? Answer: 2. Regular season records and divisional titles don't mean squat if you do a face plant in the playoffs every year. Besides, these 4 team divisions are a joke. They're great for preserving rivalries but the fact that you're better than 3 random teams in a 32 team league isn't much of a feather in the cap. Some teams don't even hang divisional banners anymore.
WFT won their division with a losing record.

Or when the 9-7 Giants went to the playoffs, then beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl 2011?

That was a very rare exception, equivalent to catching lightning in a bottle. The odds of that happening again are astronomical.

I can't agree with you guys. The first goal is always make the playoffs, win the division, then a game at a time hopefully winning the Super Bowl. It may take years of missing the playoffs again for Seattle fans to appreciate what it is like to be in the position we're in. Not many teams are in the position to be perennial contenders.

I agree, the first goal is to make the playoffs, and we've done a good job of positioning ourselves for a nice run at another Lombardi. But we haven't been able to take the next step.

[Rambo2014]

Never be satisfied with Mediocrity

[Aseahawkfan]

How many of those 12 wins came against teams with a winning record? Answer: 2. Regular season records and divisional titles don't mean squat if you do a face plant in the playoffs every year. Besides, these 4 team divisions are a joke. They're great for preserving rivalries but the fact that you're better than 3 random teams in a 32 team league isn't much of a feather in the cap. Some teams don't even hang divisional banners anymore.
WFT won their division with a losing record.

When has that mattered? Most teams with an exceptional record win against weaker teams. You go 12-4 in a league of 32 teams, most of them are going to have bad records. Always changing the goalposts after the fact. 12-4 and a division win is a great record.

That was a very rare exception, equivalent to catching lightning in a bottle. The odds of that happening again are astronomical.

Doesn't matter. Just illustrates the point of punching your ticket to the playoffs gets you a chance to catch lightning in a bottle, whereas sitting at home often does nothing.

I agree, the first goal is to make the playoffs, and we've done a good job of positioning ourselves for a nice run at another Lombardi. But we haven't been able to take the next step.

Next step can only be taken by making the playoffs. Always going to be that way. The strategy every year is the same.

1. Control and win the division.

2. Try to get home field advantage.

3. Then game at a time in the playoffs.

Same strategy every year. Do it enough times, you'll give yourself a good chance at the rare Super Bowl win.

Fact is everyone wants to be the Patriots now, but there is only one team that has ever been that good. One team in NFL history. No one else has ever done what they've done because no one thought it was possible until they did it. Now Seattle fans seem to think they can easily build some team that challenges for the Super Bowl every year even though one team in NFL history has done that. One. It's ridiculous.

[obiken]

A dime a dozen? Then why is this the most often we've made the playoffs in our history?

Because for years we were stuck in Mediocrity of 9-7 7-9.

[NorthHawk]

When was the last time you thought teams wouldn't want to meet the Seahawks in the playoffs?
For me it was 2014 or thereabouts. Teams don't fear playing us and really, when have we dominated
teams for any stretch of the season? When was the last time we got on a roll and had a string of dominating wins?
What has happened is we've reached a level of basic competence and not of excellence. That aspect of play has fallen off
and if we want to go deep into the playoffs we have to get back to that.

[c_hawkbob]

A dime a dozen? Then why is this the most often we've made the playoffs in our history?

Because for years we were stuck in Mediocrity of 9-7 7-9.

Exactly my point OBI.

[Aseahawkfan]

When was the last time you thought teams wouldn't want to meet the Seahawks in the playoffs?
For me it was 2014 or thereabouts. Teams don't fear playing us and really, when have we dominated
teams for any stretch of the season? When was the last time we got on a roll and had a string of dominating wins?
What has happened is we've reached a level of basic competence and not of excellence. That aspect of play has fallen off
and if we want to go deep into the playoffs we have to get back to that.

Who do they fear in the playoffs? Give me the flavor of the year team. I want to hear it.

As far as I know, there has only been one team that anyone has feared for more than a few years and that was New England. Now even New England is just another team after 20 years.

We had a nice five to six year period of people fearing playing us. Now we're still a contender.

Now what exactly do you want? If they get to the divisional round or conference game and lose, you going to stop the crying? Or do we have win the Super Bowl, then you'll stop crying for how long? Another 5 to 10 years since winning a Super Bowl once a decade is very rare.

[Aseahawkfan]

Because for years we were stuck in Mediocrity of 9-7 7-9.

I guess we have to get back to that before Seattle fans realize how good it is to have a QB like Russ and be in the position we are in of contending yearly.

[obiken]

I guess we have to get back to that before Seattle fans realize how good it is to have a QB like Russ and be in the position we are in of contending yearly

No question but he is the main reason, he has done more with less than any QB i have seen in my lifetime except Tommy.

[RiverDog]

How many of those 12 wins came against teams with a winning record? Answer: 2. Regular season records and divisional titles don't mean squat if you do a face plant in the playoffs every year. Besides, these 4 team divisions are a joke. They're great for preserving rivalries but the fact that you're better than 3 random teams in a 32 team league isn't much of a feather in the cap. Some teams don't even hang divisional banners anymore.
WFT won their division with a losing record.

When has that mattered? Most teams with an exceptional record win against weaker teams. You go 12-4 in a league of 32 teams, most of them are going to have bad records. Always changing the goalposts after the fact. 12-4 and a division win is a great record.

I didn't say that it "mattered" I was simply qualifying our record.

That (9-7 Giants winning the SB) was a very rare exception, equivalent to catching lightning in a bottle. The odds of that happening again are astronomical.

Doesn't matter. Just illustrates the point of punching your ticket to the playoffs gets you a chance to catch lightning in a bottle, whereas sitting at home often does nothing.

I'm not content with simply the possibility of catching lightening in a bottle. A .500 record, which in light of the expanded playoffs represents the playoffs, is not acceptable anymore. The bar has been raised, at least for this team. In my book, the new standard of acceptability is playoff success.

I agree, the first goal is to make the playoffs, and we've done a good job of positioning ourselves for a nice run at another Lombardi. But we haven't been able to take the next step.

Next step can only be taken by making the playoffs. Always going to be that way. The strategy every year is the same.

I'm not talking about strategy. I'm talking about acceptable results. Winning the division is no longer considered a satisfactory level of performance unless it results in playoff success.

Fact is everyone wants to be the Patriots now, but there is only one team that has ever been that good. One team in NFL history. No one else has ever done what they've done because no one thought it was possible until they did it. Now Seattle fans seem to think they can easily build some team that challenges for the Super Bowl every year even though one team in NFL history has done that. One. It's ridiculous.

I'm not looking for Patriot-like results. I want another Lombardi. Once we achieve that goal, then we'll worry about becoming a dynasty.

We'll see what happens this season. Like I keep saying, my position isn't that it's time to blow up the team and start over. I still feel that this team as currently configured has the capability of making another SB run. You're right, 12-4 is a very good record and an indication that the team has the potential to become a serious contender. But I've been disillusioned before. All that glitters is not gold, and the time to look ourselves in the mirror and make some tough admissions, that we're not as good as our regular season record might indicate, is fast approaching. If the pattern of the past 6 seasons is repeated this year, then it might be time to consider blowing up the team even if it means taking some risks. We're not going to get to the promised land if we aren't willing to take a few chances along the way.

[Aseahawkfan]

This is the NFL. It isn't ever going to be easy. But for me it's damn good to have one of the better QBs in the league and be contending every year.

I personally never doubt Russ will put the work in to give us a chance at the SB. It's up to the coach and GM to build the team so that we can win. Right now given our coach, if we can't get the defense rebuilt we might have a hard time returning. Pete's mindset is very defense and ball control oriented. I'm not sure we have that team right now where it's hard enough to score on our defense for a ball control offense to work in our favor. If that is the case, then we need to learn to control the ball with the offense and score more often. That's going to require taking the chains off and learning to play small ball in the passing game.

[NorthHawk]

At the moment we don't have an identity.
We used to be the big boys on the block who would grind other teams into submission.
Now we are light on Defense and have seemingly moved to a finesse Offense. We passed by 2 RBs that
in Chubb is a perfect fit for how we used to play and Taylor who might be the same. So we need a stud RB to
be available for 6-8 games that Carson will miss. Both sides of the LoS get routinely pushed around so what
did we do? We let our best inside DL go. They've floated away from the formula that made them a team that
was a serious contender for the SB and now we sit in limbo with a good record but little hope for challenging
for a championship.

We'll see how Waldron changes the Offense and maybe it will be the answer to our insufficiencies, but that's
a big maybe and remains to be seen. If the Rams Offense is a template, the OL will have to change to be
quicker but maybe he's changed his playbook to incorporate the types of players we currently have. It will
be interesting to see a new Offense and not be able to tell what play is coming just from the formation on
the field.

[RiverDog]

This is the NFL. It isn't ever going to be easy. But for me it's damn good to have one of the better QBs in the league and be contending every year.

I am not trying to persuade you or anyone else to come over to my POV. I simply want more than just contending every year. I want another Lombardi or at the very least a serious, legitimate shot at it, and the past 6 seasons haven't produced the effort necessary to attain that goal.

I personally never doubt Russ will put the work in to give us a chance at the SB. It's up to the coach and GM to build the team so that we can win. Right now given our coach, if we can't get the defense rebuilt we might have a hard time returning. Pete's mindset is very defense and ball control oriented. I'm not sure we have that team right now where it's hard enough to score on our defense for a ball control offense to work in our favor. If that is the case, then we need to learn to control the ball with the offense and score more often. That's going to require taking the chains off and learning to play small ball in the passing game.

I don't question Russell's work effort. What I am questioning is his tactics: He holds onto the ball too God damn long looking for the home run. I believe that he would give us a better chance if he went to a different style that emphasized getting the ball out of his hands quicker and let the home run opportunities take care of themselves.

We'll see how he meshes with Waldron and the new offense. I'm hopeful for positive results.

[NorthHawk]

The Rams Offense is much more timing oriented, so it will be interesting to see how Russ adjusts to that aspect, unless Waldron
largely abandons it now that he has his own Offense to run and not McVey's. What I'm most interested in is how many plays he
runs out of the same formation. I think that was a lot of the problem with our Offense the last decade even when successful in
that opposing teams knew what we were going to do as soon as we lined up.