Next up: the draft

[mykc14]

If Stroud was on anyone's board, I doubt that this info on his reported S2 score will take him off it.

I'm not talking about his 18%, I think it's pretty clear that's not true, but if he did score low, in a class with 3 other QBs closely rated to him it could be the difference they need. Combine that with the stuff I mentioned earlier and there could be a legitimate reason somebody would draft the upside of Levi's or Richardson before Stroud. I don't think it would take him off their board but it could possibly reshuffle it.

[NorthHawk]

I've thought the same thing, ie how baseball players from 70+ years ago might have performed, particularly Ted Williams. There are also other applications where instant reflexes are critical, like fighter pilots and race car drivers. Perhaps it would be an appropriate test for seniors over age 75 to retain their driver's license. Or how about referees? How much of their performance is based on split second impressions and visual signals?

It could probably be used in a lot of professions and not limited to sports, but as of now, we only know it's used in Football. Maybe it is used in Baseball and for Hockey Goaltenders and Fighter Pilots. I'm not aware of how the rest of the world perceives its value outside of just some more information.

[mykc14]

We are indeed in a position to draft a project developmental Qb. Is it worth taking one at 5 when we could possibly solidify the defense with a couple generational defenders and WIN NOW .
.

Because it's all a crap shoot. We don't know we are getting a once in a generational defender. We could be getting Aaron Donald but we could also be getting Aaron Curry. We could be drafting Patrick Mahomes but we could also be drafting Rick Mirer. The closest thing to a defensive sure bet would be Anderson and it's looking more and more likely that he will be gone. I don't think there's anyway the Hawks draft Carter, honestly I would guess he's off their board. If we continue to run this 3-4 defense then who is the "generational" player we have to draft? Tyree Wilson? He's got question marks and doesn't fit in our defense (unless we switch back to the 4-3). After that everybody is mocking CB as the next defensive players off the board. Should we draft a DB- a position we have had a ton of success drafting and developing later at 5? It might just be that the best gamble at #5 for us is our QBOTF.

[RiverDog]

If Stroud was on anyone's board, I doubt that this info on his reported S2 score will take him off it.

I'm not talking about his 18%, I think it's pretty clear that's not true, but if he did score low, in a class with 3 other QBs closely rated to him it could be the difference they need. Combine that with the stuff I mentioned earlier and there could be a legitimate reason somebody would draft the upside of Levi's or Richardson before Stroud. I don't think it would take him off their board but it could possibly reshuffle it.

I understand that you weren't talking about Stroud's supposed 18% score. My point was that if we discount the abnormally low 18% as invalid, why would we assume that his real score was low? In addition, the quote from the co-founder of the test claims that all of the QB's in the discussion, which we can assume includes Stroud, did very well in the test.

One of the things that we don't know, or at least I don't know, is what the scale of the test is. We know that there are some QB's have aced the test with scores of 95% plus. But where is the cutoff point? Richardson supposedly scored 78%. Is that low? What's the average score for QB's that they have tested? Are averages the right stat we should be using, or should it be the median score? If players are, indeed, testing at rates as low as 18%, that's going to drag down the average.

I think that the S2 is too new of a technology for us, or for that matter, NFL teams, to be using it as a decision-making tool. I don't think that they've collected enough data on it.

[NorthHawk]

We are indeed in a position to draft a project developmental Qb. Is it worth taking one at 5 when we could possibly solidify the defense with a couple generational defenders and WIN NOW .


We might have a 3 year window to win NOW.

It’s the big question . Why are these 3,4 , or 5 top QBs expected to go top ten with all these supposed issues ? Levis reportedly can’t read the field and is inaccurate and has a sense of entitlement and weird grating personality .

I have only heard good things about Levis outside of putting mayonnaise in his coffee and eating bananas including the skin. He's been said to be a real favorite in the dressing room and commanded a lot of respect from the other players.

We are two drafts away from really challenging for contention, from what I see - this one and next. Teams need top QBs to make the difference between very good and champions.
Justin Herbert was considered a high risk with a lot of problem throws. Would you bypass him if he was in this draft? Allen, Mahomes, and others were also considered high risks. Outside of Lawrence and Burrow, every QB has some problems in their draft year.

Bottom line is we need a difference maker at QB if we want to contend with the top teams. It's harder to get one than it is to get a DT or two that fit the scheme the team is playing. Carter has a huge top end, but he also has a massive sink hole for a floor. If we don't take a QB now, considering all 4 are worthy of a high first round pick, then we will be spending two or 3 first round picks two years from now and hoping we are right.
Looking at it from the downside and assuming the pick is a bust, what would you rather spend to take a swing and a miss out on because in the next couple of years we will need one:

1) A single top 5 pick already in hand.
2) Two or three future first round picks to move into position to get a top QB.

[NorthHawk]

Because it's all a crap shoot. We don't know we are getting a once in a generational defender. We could be getting Aaron Donald but we could also be getting Aaron Curry. We could be drafting Patrick Mahomes but we could also be drafting Rick Mirer. The closest thing to a defensive sure bet would be Anderson and it's looking more and more likely that he will be gone. I don't think there's anyway the Hawks draft Carter, honestly I would guess he's off their board. If we continue to run this 3-4 defense then who is the "generational" player we have to draft? Tyree Wilson? He's got question marks and doesn't fit in our defense (unless we switch back to the 4-3). After that everybody is mocking CB as the next defensive players off the board. Should we draft a DB- a position we have had a ton of success drafting and developing later at 5? It might just be that the best gamble at #5 for us is our QBOTF.

I agree mostly with this statement.
You can find real good DL in the first 3 rounds of most drafts. That's not usually the case with QBs. It's why teams who have them pay top dollar and teams that don't are searching for one and willing to pay a ransom in picks to get one.
It's the most precious commodity in all of the pro sports the I know and worthy of risking a pick on one.
So here we sit with the #5 pick and people are suggesting we select a player with commitment to football concerns who may be great but is undisciplined and apparently unwilling to get into the best shape of his life for the most important job interview he will ever have? If he's that unmotivated to help himself today, what's he going to be like after being given $20 - $30 Million? Will he be motivated to pay the price it takes to be great to help the team if not himself?
It's far too large of a risk for a rotational player. If he even sticks in the NFL.

[obiken]

If we trade down I am going to flip out, and I have not flipped out in years!!

[RiverDog]

If we trade down I am going to flip out, and I have not flipped out in years!!

Not me, at least not if it matches some of the other trade downs involving top 10 picks in recent history. Here's one that JS proposed over in Cbob's 3 deep mock thread:

I predict we TRADE down with the Tennessee Titans at #11 as the 2 Edge I would take at #5 are gone -- (Anderson and Wilson). We are not going to draft the "3rd QB" at #5.

Titans get #05.

Hawks get #11, Titans 2nd #41, 5th #147 and their #1 pick in ’24.

So for moving down just 6 spots, we would get an additional 3 draft picks, including another 2nd rounder this year and their 2024 first round pick. A trade like that could fill a lot of holes.

[Aseahawkfan]

If we trade down I am going to flip out, and I have not flipped out in years!!

What player in this draft if Seattle were to draft him would make you flip out the most?

[mykc14]

Why would we assume that his real score was low? In addition, the quote from the co-founder of the test claims that all of the QB's in the discussion, which we can assume includes Stroud, did very well in the test.

.

Got it. He may well have tested high- which I hope he did. The reason I was saying that he may have tested low is because a draft expert claimed one reason he was dropping on draft boards was because he scored low. This was before the leaked scores which either means he had inside information or access to the leaked scores before they came out. Like you said we don't have a great gage as to what an excellent vs poor test really is. He could have been talking about him scoring low vs. the other QB's I don't know.

[c_hawkbob]

QB's (all positions really but it's more pronounced with QB's) move up and down draft boards because everyone does a series of mocks as opposed to a single mock. They have to have a version 2 and a version 3 to keep themselves in their own manufactured news cycle and they all influence each other far more than they influence the actual draft. I've seen more than one move Levis down their board because he wore a tank top during his pro day and is cocky. (Imagine, a cocky QB!) I seriously don't think there is anywhere near the movement on actual team boards as there is on draftnik's boards.

[RiverDog]

QB's (all positions really but it's more pronounced with QB's) move up and down draft boards because everyone does a series of mocks as opposed to a single mock. They have to have a version 2 and a version 3 to keep themselves in their own manufactured news cycle and they all influence each other far more than they influence the actual draft. I've seen more than one move Levis down their board because he wore a tank top during his pro day and is cocky. (Imagine, a cocky QB!) I seriously don't think there is anywhere near the movement on actual team boards as there is on draftnik's boards.

I agree with this. The lead-up to the draft and the mocks are a big business, with gambling, advertising hits, prestige, etc., competing with each other for a hungry market of fans like us. Adding in the smoke screens that the teams themselves generate muddies the water even further.

[NorthHawk]

Agreed, and it all hypes up expectations of fans who seem to get emotionally invested- and maybe because of betting financially so for some.
This year seems a little more volatile and I wonder if it’s because of the introduction of gambling. Or maybe it just seems more so because we have such a high pick.

[RiverDog]

Agreed, and it all hypes up expectations of fans who seem to get emotionally invested- and maybe because of betting financially so for some.
This year seems a little more volatile and I wonder if it’s because of the introduction of gambling. Or maybe it just seems more so because we have such a high pick.

Yeah, hard to say. There's no doubt that us Seahawk fans are paying one helluva lot more attention to all of the hullabaloo surrounding the draft this season than we have in past years due to our having a #5 overall pick, so I'm sure that a lot of this stuff has always been going on, just that we've never noticed it.

[RiverDog]

QB's (all positions really but it's more pronounced with QB's) move up and down draft boards because everyone does a series of mocks as opposed to a single mock. They have to have a version 2 and a version 3 to keep themselves in their own manufactured news cycle and they all influence each other far more than they influence the actual draft. I've seen more than one move Levis down their board because he wore a tank top during his pro day and is cocky. (Imagine, a cocky QB!) I seriously don't think there is anywhere near the movement on actual team boards as there is on draftnik's boards.

Here's an example of what Cbob is talking about:

Major Odds Shift For NFL Draft No. 2 Pick Sparks Trade Speculation

The latest odds shift from a domestic sportsbook has served as evidence of this. Jaime Eisner on Twitter relayed interesting line movement from Caesars Sportsbook, which now has Kentucky's Will Levis as the odds-on favorite to be selected second overall.

Major No. 2 overall pick odds shift at
@CaesarsSports
. Will Levis is now the odds-on favorite. Is a trade coming?

Will Levis (-140)
Tyree Wilson (+275)
Will Anderson Jr. (+400)
C.J. Stroud (+450)
Bryce Young (20/1)
Anthony Richardson (25/1)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/ma ... a0ef&ei=33

Just a few days ago, Levis stock was plummeting. Some mocks had him falling all the way to our #20 spot. But now, according to one of the major sports books in the gambling world, he's the odds-on favorite to be taken at the #2 overall. If you were able to take an honest polling of NFL GM's ranking the picks, there's no way there'd be that kind of movement in such a short period of time and with no major events, like a combine or pro day, in-between.

It also illustrates how much of an interest that sports books have in manipulating perception so as to influence betting.

[NorthHawk]

This year the QBs ratings are far more volatile than I've ever seen. Usually by the last week in the draft there is a basic consensus as to how they are ranked and it's usually fairly close to the order of how they are drafted.
Last year was an outlier from previous years with expectations of 3 or 4 QBs going early and only Pickett going in the 1st round. The others that were ranked ahead of him like Malik Willis went much later. I don't know if that's the result of the SF experience with Trey Lance and him not taking the league by storm or if it's just the hype machines going crazy prior to the draft, but most prognostications were quite wrong on the QBs last year.

[Hawktawk]

I think we will know what’s up on Thursday and until then it’s just idle speculation , guys selling print . I saw a mock with us taking Hooker at 5. He’s not lasting till the second round but he’s not going 5 I’m probably the least savvy person on the board regarding the draft . But obviously everyone’s interest is piqued with the 5 pick . I have nowhere near the knowledge to play 3 deep but I have some hunches. None of these top 4 QBs are falling far whether by trade or whatever . It’s like a drug the teams can’t resist . Franchise qb. Problem is there probability aren’t 4 . Someone is getting Zach Wilson , Mitch Trubiski . They will get him top 5 most likely .
I don’t think Carter is falling much at all. I don’t think he’s off our board at 5 at all. I know it’s the lying season but I don’t think they would have gone to the expense and time to bring him in just to throw off other teams . He wouldn’t visit to be jerked around like that . There is mutual curiosity . Not saying they will.

They may want a qb. With Genos team friendly deal it’s easier to do . It makes less sense with Lock signed for 5 million unless there’s an escape hatch for the team .

Will they take a qb at 5 ? You have a starter who was top 10 in everything #1 in a couple with maybe 5 productive years left . You may have Will Levis already in Lock with 25 starts in the show proving he can take the beating . He’s 6’4”, mobile with one of the biggest arms in the NFL. I think it’s possible to overlook the significance of resigning of Lock who didn’t play a down and who reportedly considered offers elsewhere .

I think starting and developing Lock is plan B if Geno falters or gets hurt and any qb drafted would be plan C. To me regardless of what Pete and John say about taking a qb first their actions with their qb room speak louder than words .

[NorthHawk]

Neither Locks nor Smiths contracts scream QB of the future. They were late signings to team friendly deals with outs after the first and second years. Those contracts do scream drafting a QB early and have him develop for a year just like the Chiefs did with Alex Smith and Mahomes. So do we pick Carter who will play maybe 30 plays a game in a rotation and won't be ready for 2 or 3 years or do we select a possible game changing player at QB who could start for the better part of the next decade or more? We can get a number of very good DL with much higher motors who will play most of the downs and be all in on Football or we can get a guy with extreme talent but doesn't want to put in the work to be the best.
As a GM, what do you do?
My take is you go for the QB if there and in our system all 4 can be team changers and take us to the next step. A DT won't and a rotational player who doesn't want to practice isn't going to help much.
This draft is another building block event and we can get 2 or 3 DL by the end of the 2nd round who can be very good with what looks like fairly high floors. Take them and build upon that instead of taking a huge gamble on a player with a massive downside.
Keep in mind we will have to move up in any future draft for a QB. That means giving up 2 or 3 first round picks to do so. Do you take a chance on a possible team changing QB with a single pick or do you give up multiple future picks later?

[NorthHawk]

Here’s a mock draft that has some merit from my PoV I hope it’s close to what happens:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... y-at-no-3/

[c_hawkbob]

Here’s a mock draft that has some merit from my PoV I hope it’s close to what happens:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... y-at-no-3/

Richardson @ 5 would seriously suck. I'd pass on him @ 20 if Hooker were still on the board.

[Hawktawk]

Neither Locks nor Smiths contracts scream QB of the future. They were late signings to team friendly deals with outs after the first and second years. Those contracts do scream drafting a QB early and have him develop for a year just like the Chiefs did with Alex Smith and Mahomes. So do we pick Carter who will play maybe 30 plays a game in a rotation and won't be ready for 2 or 3 years or do we select a possible game changing player at QB who could start for the better part of the next decade or more? We can get a number of very good DL with much higher motors who will play most of the downs and be all in on Football or we can get a guy with extreme talent but doesn't want to put in the work to be the best.
As a GM, what do you do?
My take is you go for the QB if there and in our system all 4 can be team changers and take us to the next step. A DT won't and a rotational player who doesn't want to practice isn't going to help much.
This draft is another building block event and we can get 2 or 3 DL by the end of the 2nd round who can be very good with what looks like fairly high floors. Take them and build upon that instead of taking a huge gamble on a player with a massive downside.
Keep in mind we will have to move up in any future draft for a QB. That means giving up 2 or 3 first round picks to do so. Do you take a chance on a possible team changing QB with a single pick or do you give up multiple future picks later?

Well a few things here my friend . For one contracts don’t play football. Ask Matt Flynn and Russell Wilson . It is up to Geno and or Drew to determine the starting qb in Seattle . If Geno plays well and the team has success they aren’t yanking him . Why ? Sexy young guy ? Shiny object ? If Pete and john have proved anything it’s that they will start the best qb. Like Pete said to the incredulous reporters as it became clear he would start Russ “ Flynn doesn’t have his checkbook on the field ”

By that same token if they take a qb anywhere in that draft the guy will have an oppprtinity to win the job this year or have a chance to be #2 if it is not Hooker. It’s how Pete rolls.

On the other hand who is Carter ? If he’s Donald or Sapp or Tez he will help this team for a decade more than any franchise QB. Donald owned us , owned Russ , scared him . Donald is why the Rams got a Lombardi . Not Stafford . Donald led a defense that sacked Franchise qb Joe cool burrow ( my personal favorite ) 7 times . And at midfield in the final seconds he managed to pull down a running back with one arm while being held leaving 4th down . Then he blows up the pocket to disrupt Burrow with Jamar Chase wide open as Ramsay fell on his face . Franchise qb and elite wideout lose to a nose guard . All the Kupp heroics don’t matter without Donald . If there’s one in this draft I want him. I don’t really have skin in the game , just curious . But conservative offense and great defense was our pinnacle as a team and it’s clear which side of the ball the biggest issues are on .

[Hawktawk]

Not to mention Jalen Hurts was being linked to trade rumors including Seattle and wasn’t considered to be the QBOTF one year ago . Now he’s the richest qb in history . It’s a microwave league .

[NorthHawk]

On the other hand who is Carter ? If he’s Donald or Sapp or Tez he will help this team for a decade more than any franchise QB. Donald owned us , owned Russ , scared him . Donald is why the Rams got a Lombardi . Not Stafford . Donald led a defense that sacked Franchise qb Joe cool burrow ( my personal favorite ) 7 times . And at midfield in the final seconds he managed to pull down a running back with one arm while being held leaving 4th down . Then he blows up the pocket to disrupt Burrow with Jamar Chase wide open as Ramsay fell on his face . Franchise qb and elite wideout lose to a nose guard . All the Kupp heroics don’t matter without Donald . If there’s one in this draft I want him. I don’t really have skin in the game , just curious . But conservative offense and great defense was our pinnacle as a team and it’s clear which side of the ball the biggest issues are on .

The problem with your proposition is he's not at all like any of those you mentioned above.
They all had/have the crazy desire to be the best. They'd crash through walls to train and practice. Carter on the other hand had to be put on a treadmill each day to try to get him into shape. He practiced when he wanted and went to meeting when he wanted. Pete has a reputation of taking in players with troubled pasts, but every player that he has selected, except maybe McDowell has had that burning desire to be the best. Does a player who doesn't want to practice and has to be put on a treadmill and still can't get in good enough shape to finish his workout in his Pro Day sound like that type of player to you?
Maybe they will break that pattern with Carter. But if they do it will be the biggest risk of their tenure here in Seattle.

[RiverDog]

On the other hand who is Carter ? If he’s Donald or Sapp or Tez he will help this team for a decade more than any franchise QB. Donald owned us , owned Russ , scared him . Donald is why the Rams got a Lombardi . Not Stafford . Donald led a defense that sacked Franchise qb Joe cool burrow ( my personal favorite ) 7 times . And at midfield in the final seconds he managed to pull down a running back with one arm while being held leaving 4th down . Then he blows up the pocket to disrupt Burrow with Jamar Chase wide open as Ramsay fell on his face . Franchise qb and elite wideout lose to a nose guard . All the Kupp heroics don’t matter without Donald . If there’s one in this draft I want him. I don’t really have skin in the game , just curious . But conservative offense and great defense was our pinnacle as a team and it’s clear which side of the ball the biggest issues are on .

The problem with your proposition is he's not at all like any of those you mentioned above.
They all had/have the crazy desire to be the best. They'd crash through walls to train and practice. Carter on the other hand had to be put on a treadmill each day to try to get him into shape. He practiced when he wanted and went to meeting when he wanted. Pete has a reputation of taking in players with troubled pasts, but every player that he has selected, except maybe McDowell has had that burning desire to be the best. Does a player who doesn't want to practice and has to be put on a treadmill and still can't get in good enough shape to finish his workout in his Pro Day sound like that type of player to you?
Maybe they will break that pattern with Carter. But if they do it will be the biggest risk of their tenure here in Seattle.

Yeah, HT, you're comparing apples to oranges by contrasting Carter with guys like Aaron Donald. They didn't have the character concerns or the conditioning issues that Carter has demonstrated. I'm not predicting a bust, but he's a lot riskier of a selection than any of those guys you compared him to and is at least as risky as some of the QB's we've been talking about.

[c_hawkbob]

He never even attempted to compare their character, he said "if he's Donald or Sapp", which is obviously referring to their output on the field of play. I don't necessarily agree with the rest of his sentence (that a dominant D-lineman can benefit you for a decade more than a franchise QB) but his position on Carter is no farther away from reality than the picture North paints. As usual they represent the 2 possible extremes with the likely reality being somewhere between.

Players don't have to be great on the practice field to be great on Sunday, Randy moss would refuse to practice on Fridays when his QB's wanted him to approach full speed. What matters is what happens at game time, and that's where Carter makes his mark. He's not rated as one of the 2 or 3 true impact defensive linemen in this draft, even in spite of his disastrous last couple months for no reason.

[Hawktawk]

I also compared him to Sapp who I think is the better comparison although there is no indication Carter uses drugs . Sapp was so excited for his career he smoked a bunch of weed , failed multiple times . Apparently Carter likes eating a bit much . But I agree with Paul Moyer who suspects Carters issues at the combine and pro day might have had a lot to do with being accused of 2 deaths he wasn’t responsible for . Moyer said fight or flight and maybe Carter chose to run and hide . It’s Az plausible scenario . I dunno . I’ll trust our coaches and John and also Jodi who is completely involved in this decision . I don’t care . Just pick a great player . Carter does not scare me though

[RiverDog]

Players don't have to be great on the practice field to be great on Sunday, Randy moss would refuse to practice on Fridays when his QB's wanted him to approach full speed. What matters is what happens at game time, and that's where Carter makes his mark. He's not rated as one of the 2 or 3 true impact defensive linemen in this draft, even in spite of his disastrous last couple months for no reason.

I'll admit that I didn't follow Carter, or for that matter, CFB, for the vast majority of the season. But I did watch the CFB playoffs and knowing that Carter was one of the top-rated defensive players, paid particular attention to him. He did NOT make an impact in either of those games, statistically or otherwise, and was getting gassed easily, having to be taken out on critical 3rd downs.

I thought it might just be me, but in the other forum I frequent, there were a number of posters of whom I have a great deal of respect for that got the exact same impression of him, that Carter was overrated, elevated above his worth by virtue of playing with such a dominant team as the 2-time National Champs.

Carter's slide was due to more than just a disastrous last couple of months. There's tangible, performance-based reasons for it.

Now that I've said that, watch him be taken #1 overall and end up in the HOF.

[mykc14]

Richardson @ 5 would seriously suck. I'd pass on him @ 20 if Hooker were still on the board.

It's interesting, but I think Richardson is likely here. IMO it's a Anderson or a QB at 5 and there is a decent chance that QB is Richardson. I know you are high on Carter, but I don't think the Hawks are, I'd say it's much more likely that we take Richardson than Carter.

[c_hawkbob]

Again, lets differentiate from trying to correct the forum's rating needle on Carter and wanting him to be our pick. I'd still prefer Anderson, Stroud, Young or Levis, but I would more than happy with Carter.

[RiverDog]

And for my part, I'm not so much anti-Carter as I am anti-risk. I just haven't seen anything out of him that would make me want to forget his disappearing act in the CFB games, the biggest games of his career. To the contrary, everything I have seen since has only reinforced that impression.

One thing is for sure: No matter what you think of him, you can find something that can support your opinion. He's the most talked about prospect in the draft.

[mykc14]

Again, lets differentiate from trying to correct the forum's rating needle on Carter and wanting him to be our pick. I'd still prefer Anderson, Stroud, Young or Levis, but I would more than happy with Carter.

Got it... I agree with you for the most part. Richardson worries me more than the other QB's and I do think Carter goes in the top 10.

[Aseahawkfan]

Carter's college production shows he is not Donald, Sapp, Suh, or any of the great D-line pass rushers of the past. He doesn't compare to them at all. Carter doesn't have good college production throughout his career. Why would a guy with his supposed physical abilities not have similar production to the D-line greats of the past?

More importantly, what great DTs of the past with pedestrian college production have blown up in the NFL?

I was looking up Suh the other day. That dudes college stats were absolutely ridiculous. He looked like a man among boys in college and it showed in his college production.

Warren Sapp had 10.5 sacks in his last college season before the draft.

Aaron Donald the same. Big college production.

Jalen Carter's best year is 3 sacks, 6 sacks over his college career, not even equal to a single season of one of the great DTs of yesteryear. His best year for Tackles for a loss was 8.5. Suh had 20 TFLs in a a single season. 49.5 Tackle for a loss in his career. Carter had 18.5 over his career. Aaron Donald had 66.5 TFLs over his career. He had more in a single season than Jalen Carter in his entire career.

So if you're a guy with these supposed amazing physical attributes like Carter, why exactly is it not showing up on the stat sheet in college against players that will be vastly inferior to what you face in the NFL? I'm still not sure why Carter is the number one DT in the NFL draft. He sure seems like a guy being hyped off potential and not production or proven ability. That is not a top 5 pick to me.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

Keep in mind we will have to move up in any future draft for a QB. That means giving up 2 or 3 first round picks to do so. Do you take a chance on a possible team changing QB with a single pick or do you give up multiple future picks later?

Not a resounding yes, but a possibility I'm not shying away from. Nail the draft this year and then a trade up next year doesn't hurt as bad especially with a trade down from 5 this year. I.e., with the team getting loaded from last year and this year, then 2024 can eat a trade up.

Carter's college production shows he is not Donald, Sapp, Suh, or any of the great D-line pass rushers of the past. He doesn't compare to them at all. Carter doesn't have good college production throughout his career. Why would a guy with his supposed physical abilities not have similar production to the D-line greats of the past?

More importantly, what great DTs of the past with pedestrian college production have blown up in the NFL?

I was looking up Suh the other day. That dudes college stats were absolutely ridiculous. He looked like a man among boys in college and it showed in his college production.

Warren Sapp had 10.5 sacks in his last college season before the draft.

Aaron Donald the same. Big college production.

Jalen Carter's best year is 3 sacks, 6 sacks over his college career, not even equal to a single season of one of the great DTs of yesteryear. His best year for Tackles for a loss was 8.5. Suh had 20 TFLs in a a single season. 49.5 Tackle for a loss in his career. Carter had 18.5 over his career. Aaron Donald had 66.5 TFLs over his career. He had more in a single season than Jalen Carter in his entire career.

So if you're a guy with these supposed amazing physical attributes like Carter, why exactly is it not showing up on the stat sheet in college against players that will be vastly inferior to what you face in the NFL? I'm still not sure why Carter is the number one DT in the NFL draft. He sure seems like a guy being hyped off potential and not production or proven ability. That is not a top 5 pick to me.

You're preaching to this choir. Seattle needs a legit space eater on running plays. I have serious doubts Carter will stonewall two run blocking NFL linemen coming at him.

I'm still hoping for a trade down from 5.

[RiverDog]

Carter's college production shows he is not Donald, Sapp, Suh, or any of the great D-line pass rushers of the past. He doesn't compare to them at all. Carter doesn't have good college production throughout his career. Why would a guy with his supposed physical abilities not have similar production to the D-line greats of the past?

More importantly, what great DTs of the past with pedestrian college production have blown up in the NFL?

I was looking up Suh the other day. That dudes college stats were absolutely ridiculous. He looked like a man among boys in college and it showed in his college production.

Warren Sapp had 10.5 sacks in his last college season before the draft.

Aaron Donald the same. Big college production.

Jalen Carter's best year is 3 sacks, 6 sacks over his college career, not even equal to a single season of one of the great DTs of yesteryear. His best year for Tackles for a loss was 8.5. Suh had 20 TFLs in a a single season. 49.5 Tackle for a loss in his career. Carter had 18.5 over his career. Aaron Donald had 66.5 TFLs over his career. He had more in a single season than Jalen Carter in his entire career.

So if you're a guy with these supposed amazing physical attributes like Carter, why exactly is it not showing up on the stat sheet in college against players that will be vastly inferior to what you face in the NFL? I'm still not sure why Carter is the number one DT in the NFL draft. He sure seems like a guy being hyped off potential and not production or proven ability. That is not a top 5 pick to me.

You're preaching to this choir. Seattle needs a legit space eater on running plays. I have serious doubts Carter will stonewall two run blocking NFL linemen coming at him.

I'm still hoping for a trade down from 5.

ASF's rant about Carter's stats caused me to take a peek at the box scores of the Georgia-Ohio State semifinal game and the Georgia-TCU National Championship game, the two games I watched. Carter had one tackle vs. OSU with no sacks and no TFL's. Vs. TCU, he had 2 tackles, 0 sacks and 0 TFL's.

As the saying goes, there's liars, damn liars, and then there's statisticians, which is especially true as it applies to defensive linemen as there is so much more to their game than making tackles and sacking the quarterback. But with as much hype as Carter has received, you'd expect a little more statistical production than what he's shown.

[Aseahawkfan]

Sure D-lineman do more than stats, but the greats do that job as well as get the stats. That's what separates them from the lower round picks who primarily do the dirty job of holding the line, but aren't good enough to rack up the stats.

I wish there was a Suh available at 5. That dude's college stats are ridiculous. He had 10 passes defensed in his last college season. He must have had a D-line coach that taught him to play volleyball with QBs. He was slapping down balls while he was rushing in to sack them.

Carter is the worst top 10 defensive tackle I've seen in years. Seems way over-hyped for what he has done in college. Damn sad.

That's why I'm wondering who obiken thinks is the closest to real top 5 pick in this draft. Who really shined bright enough in college for us to spend that rare once every decade or so top 5 pick we have?

[TriCitySam]

Things I believe I know (in part from reading the press, who may not know anything), and from my couch:

1) Jalen Carter is generally considered to be the top rated player in this draft, a wrecking ball (and that doesn't mean sacks)
2) As it comes to the above, JS will do his homework into the off the field issues
3) JS will surprise us at least once in this draft
4) We will take a QB at some point in this draft
5) Unlike many prior years, we will see the Seahawks take player(s) on day 1....and that will be FUN! But as we know, ask me 3 yrs down the road how good this draft was.
6) No matter how good the draft, there will be arm-chair doubters
6) I have nothing better to do

[Aseahawkfan]

Things I believe I know (in part from reading the press, who may not know anything), and from my couch:

1) Jalen Carter is generally considered to be the top rated player in this draft, a wrecking ball (and that doesn't mean sacks)
2) As it comes to the above, JS will do his homework into the off the field issues
3) JS will surprise us at least once in this draft
4) We will take a QB at some point in this draft
5) Unlike many prior years, we will see the Seahawks take player(s) on day 1....and that will be FUN! But as we know, ask me 3 yrs down the road how good this draft was.
6) No matter how good the draft, there will be arm-chair doubters
6) I have nothing better to do

What metric do you use for Jalen Carter? Because he's not performed well at any of them compared to past top 10 D-lineman drafted. Aaron Donald and Suh are wrecking balls with the stats to back it.

Not sure what you're basing him being a wrecking ball on? What is that based on? Who do you compare him to?

I'm glad to hear counterarguments about defensive lineman with just ok college production that blew up in the NFL.

I've not seen anywhere Jalen Carter is considered the top rated player in this draft. Not read that on any mock. Top-rated defensive tackle, yes. Top-rated player, never heard that one.

Casey Hampton was one of the higher drafted Nose Tackles in the NFL. He was picked 19. That's the closest comparison to Carter I can think of for a guy with not great statistical production, but did a dirty job of holding the line well. Casey Hampton is one of the closest comparisons I can see to Jalen Carter.

[c_hawkbob]

Things I believe I know (in part from reading the press, who may not know anything), and from my couch:

1) Jalen Carter is generally considered to be the top rated player in this draft, a wrecking ball (and that doesn't mean sacks)
2) As it comes to the above, JS will do his homework into the off the field issues
3) JS will surprise us at least once in this draft
4) We will take a QB at some point in this draft
5) Unlike many prior years, we will see the Seahawks take player(s) on day 1....and that will be FUN! But as we know, ask me 3 yrs down the road how good this draft was.
6) No matter how good the draft, there will be arm-chair doubters
6) I have nothing better to do

Yep, all of this.

[c_hawkbob]

The arguments have been made Asea, complete with links and quotes, you've just chosen to ignore them. Sans recent "character issues" he's consensus top 5 talent in this draft by evaluators that make there living evaluating talent. And top 5 is conservative.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

His drawbacks and times he’s lacked in performance in big games have been noted too. Aaron Curry was a can’t-miss prospect easily considered among the top 5. Scouts and pundits can miss. It’s not like Carter isn’t giving reasons for pause.