NFL and gambling

[RiverDog]

Our last 6 teams of 2021...Taking into account the three games prior to playing us and the two games after playing us should capture them as patsies or a challenge as any NFL team can be.

Wk 12 49ers arrived having won all 3 of previous games including Rams and Vikings. After we beat them they then beat both the Bengals and the Falcons.

Wk 13 we played the Texans (1-3) coming in with only win being the Titans. After we beat them they won both their next 2 games with one win being the LA Chargers.

Wk 14 the Rams arrived (2-1) with a win over the Cards and the loss playing Green Bay at home. After our loss to them they beat the Vikings and Ravens.

Wk 15 the Bears arrived on a cold wintry day having lost all 3 of their games to the Cards/Packers/Vikings. After our loss they beat the Giants while losing another game to the Vikings.

Wk 16 Lions (1-2) arrived with only win in last 3 games being against the Cards. After we beat them they won their final season game against the Packers.

Wk 17 the Cards (1-2) arrived as the only team (besides the Bears) reeling in its last 3 games with its single win being a close Dallas victory. After losing to us they got destroyed by the Rams in the WC playoffs. So our last 6 games played were not cakewalks but competitive for the time period we were facing them. The way we played those 6 games (Chicago Bears was the only real blight) gives hope and good feelings entering the off season.

Sorry, my friend. You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig. You can spin it however you want, but the fact is that we were 7-10 and last in our division.

[c_hawkbob]

the fact is that we were 7-10 and last in our division

Keep that in mind next time we're 2 games up in the division yet you feel the urge to 'yeahbut' our record as not being as good as it looks.

This whole "you are what your record says you are" works both ways.

[Hawktawk]

Our last 6 teams of 2021...Taking into account the three games prior to playing us and the two games after playing us should capture them as patsies or a challenge as any NFL team can be.

Wk 12 49ers arrived having won all 3 of previous games including Rams and Vikings. After we beat them they then beat both the Bengals and the Falcons.

Wk 13 we played the Texans (1-3) coming in with only win being the Titans. After we beat them they won both their next 2 games with one win being the LA Chargers.

Wk 14 the Rams arrived (2-1) with a win over the Cards and the loss playing Green Bay at home. After our loss to them they beat the Vikings and Ravens.

Wk 15 the Bears arrived on a cold wintry day having lost all 3 of their games to the Cards/Packers/Vikings. After our loss they beat the Giants while losing another game to the Vikings.


Wk 16 Lions (1-2) arrived with only win in last 3 games being against the Cards. After we beat them they won their final season game against the Packers.

Wk 17 the Cards (1-2) arrived as the only team (besides the Bears) reeling in its last 3 games with its single win being a close Dallas victory. After losing to us they got destroyed by the Rams in the WC playoffs. So our last 6 games played were not cakewalks but competitive for the time period we were facing them. The way we played those 6 games (Chicago Bears was the only real blight) gives hope and good feelings entering the off season.

Add the Jags to the list. RD attended and came back with a meh attitude about the win over a bad team, discounted Genos effort and the teams overall play in the game. Not to single his opinion out but that Jags team played us coming off a win and beat the Bills 9-6 the following week beating up and turning over all world Josh Allen. They knocked indy out of the playoffs to end the season. Post season PC was asked by Mike Salk which games he thought were our best and among them he mentioned Jacksonville as one of his favorites.
I dont buy the bad team thing at all. Bad teams are bad because they got beat by someone. Sometimes by a FG, in OT. Seattle went 0-5 in 3 point games this year. I get the concerns about the end of 2020 but our offense was grinding to a halt and Russ was a pick a game guy at the end of the regular season. We had no credible running threat. The final result wasn't surprising.I recall being at the clink watching us fall behind an 0-8 Tampa team 21-0 before wining in OT in the championship year.But looking at our offense really 4 of the last 5 all coinciding with Penney going deep its the best its looked since 2012 at seasons end.Even vs the Bears Russ had 2 TD passes and a 110 rating but a few bonehead errors cost us the game or its 5 out of the last 6. We need to solve the Rams and were not that far off there either.

I feel good. Its not that far off

[Aseahawkfan]

I'm with North Hawk on this one, and the opinion is supported by PFF's rankings. They have our offensive line ranked 25th. Last season, we were more in the middle of the pack, #16 if I recall.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2021 ... e-rankings

Defensive line is worse, ranked 29th, better only than the Jags, Texans, and Falcons.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-al ... 021-season

I'm not saying that PFF should be treated as if it were the Holy Bible, but it is the most often used analysis.

Problem I have with O-line grades is they are often graded by the quality of the QB and RB. If the QB does well, avoids pressure, and gets the ball back and the RB hits the hole and makes gains, then the O-line looks better. If the QB isn't avoiding pressure or getting the ball out, then the O-line looks worse and the RB isn't any good and isn't hitting the hole, then the O-line looks worse. Marshawn Lynch makes O-lines look better than they are as does Tom Brady. While backup RB number 3 and backup QB and hurt finger QB make their O-line look worse.

Not saying the O-line couldn't use some upgrades. Just saying the O-line is harder to measure because it's ranking is often dependent on the performance of other positions.

[RiverDog]

Problem I have with O-line grades is they are often graded by the quality of the QB and RB. If the QB does well, avoids pressure, and gets the ball back and the RB hits the hole and makes gains, then the O-line looks better. If the QB isn't avoiding pressure or getting the ball out, then the O-line looks worse and the RB isn't any good and isn't hitting the hole, then the O-line looks worse. Marshawn Lynch makes O-lines look better than they are as does Tom Brady. While backup RB number 3 and backup QB and hurt finger QB make their O-line look worse.

Not saying the O-line couldn't use some upgrades. Just saying the O-line is harder to measure because it's ranking is often dependent on the performance of other positions.

There's no doubt that there's a lot of subjectivity that goes into that evaluation. Good running backs can set up their blockers. Quarterbacks that get rid of the ball quickly don't get sacked. Russell Wilson must be a nightmare to block for compared to someone like Worthlessburger or Brady. But PFF's grading system is as good as can be devised given the parameters and is widely used by a lot of knowledgeable football people.

We can look at the ranking a different way. Rather than comparing our OL performance vs. the 31 other teams, we can look at how we measured up against ourselves. In 2020, our overall PFF offensive line ranking was 16th, smack dab in the middle of the pack. This season, we were ranked 25th, or bottom quarter. That's quite a drop. It also corresponds with us going from a 12-4 record in 2020 to 7-10 this season, so I think that it has some merit to it.

[NorthHawk]

Time of possession and inability to grind out first downs says a lot, too.

[tarlhawk]

Time of Possession was a big overall factor in our very poor season. We averaged 24 min to our opponents 37 min over the first 11 games and 25 min to our opponents 35 min for the season. But we chopped that margin of 10 min in half with us finishing the season 27 min to our opponents 32 min...so again heading in the right direction as being more manageable to overcome as Waldrons play calling coupled with the emergence of a rushing attack restored some balance.

[NorthHawk]

The last five games we played teams that either had some of the worst records in the NFL
or were playing poorly. So I don’t think making a judgment on that basis is a reason to
think things were improving .

[Hawktawk]

Your offense has to be clicking to average something like 30’points a game for a month against any NFL team . It’s the best the offense has looked in years . Yeah Russ cooked first half of 2020 season but this was a balanced yet explosive attack . Excited . Optimistic . If Russ bails and we lose guys like Diggs and Penney not so much

[c_hawkbob]

Time of possession is as much about not being able to get off the field on 3rd down on defense as it is about grinding out first downs on offense. We did poorly at both throughout the season. Sometimes more one than the other, other times the inverse, and when it really sucked, both.

[Hawktawk]

Time of possession is as much about not being able to get off the field on 3rd down on defense as it is about grinding out first downs on offense. We did poorly at both throughout the season. Sometimes more one than the other, other times the inverse, and when it really sucked, both.

Absolutely . The defense was weird . Give up an 8 minute drive then give up a field goal or something . At one point this year they were 31st in yards and 5 th in points . Might have been the bears game they gave up a couple of long time consuming drives . But then our historically bad 3rd down rate of conversion most of the year isn’t helpful . We had 2 games this year with 4 3 and outs in a row , one finished off with a 4 and out after 4 three and outs . The whole thing was a mess a good part of the year . It got a lot better in the end .

[RiverDog]

Time of possession is as much about not being able to get off the field on 3rd down on defense as it is about grinding out first downs on offense. We did poorly at both throughout the season. Sometimes more one than the other, other times the inverse, and when it really sucked, both.

Our offense was ranked 23rd in 3rd down conversion percentage while our defense was ranked 15th in holding opponents on 3rd down, so there might be a little more liability on the offense. Russell's 3rd down completion percentage was a significant factor as at one point, it was the worst of any starting QB. Not sure what he ended up at. But yea, we've had problems on both offense and defense that's reflected in the TOP stat.

[obiken]

Time of possession is as much about not being able to get off the field on 3rd down on defense as it is about grinding out first downs on offense. We did poorly at both throughout the season. Sometimes more one than the other, other times the inverse, and when it really sucked, both.

Pretty much in a nutshell CB, and I see nothing to change the equation in the next year.

[Aseahawkfan]

Pretty much in a nutshell CB, and I see nothing to change the equation in the next year.

We'll see after draft and free agency. D-line needs serious upgrade of they want to control ToP on defense. You got no d-line, you gonna be on the field a long time.

[RiverDog]

Pretty much in a nutshell CB, and I see nothing to change the equation in the next year.

We'll see after draft and free agency. D-line needs serious upgrade of they want to control ToP on defense. You got no d-line, you gonna be on the field a long time.

Yeah, the league is so dynamic that it's very difficult to gauge even after FA and the draft, especially this past season. How many people had the Bengals going to the Super Bowl?

[NorthHawk]

If they want to get top quality FAs then they can’t afford to sit out the first week or 10 days like
they have done up to now. If they do wait we will end up with more backups instead of starters
and the same cycle of non-improvement will begin again.

[RiverDog]

Back to the OP.

I see where they expect over $1 Billion (that's Billion with a 'B') of legal bets will be placed on Sunday's game.

The total amount legally wagered on this Sunday’s Super Bowl is expected to reach $1 billion, doubling last year’s total, according to analysts at PlayUSA.

There are two likely reasons for this surge. The first is that sports betting has never been more popular in the U.S. as states set monthly records in total bets with regularity. Sportsbooks like Caesars DraftKings and FanDuel are in constant competition to draw in new customers with free-bet promotions and deposit-matching initiatives.

The second is more states have legalized online betting. In states where betting is most popular, like New Jersey, online betting makes up roughly 90% of all wagers placed in the state — and over the past 12 months, states like Arizona and New York began accepting online bets.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/more-s ... uxbndlbing

[Hawktawk]

Yes keep an eye on the officiating . Too many wierd and missed calls the last few years . I hope it’s a clean game .

[Hawktawk]

Our offense was ranked 23rd in 3rd down conversion percentage while our defense was ranked 15th in holding opponents on 3rd down, so there might be a little more liability on the offense. Russell's 3rd down completion percentage was a significant factor as at one point, it was the worst of any starting QB. Not sure what he ended up at. But yea, we've had problems on both offense and defense that's reflected in the TOP stat.

I’ve had way too much time on my hands this winter obviously driving you guys nuts . But I’ve never watched more film . Even in 49 we had a 7.5 minute deficit in TOP despite almost 30 more yards in offense . We know it was a yard from victory . Is Russ part of top? We went 3 and out most of the first half before the final minutes and wound up losing first downs 25 to 20. It gassed our defense keeping it from being a first half blowout and in the end they had no legs .

Russ has one of the best deep balls ever . But for whatever reason 3rd down is his worst down by far and it’s not close to his performance on 1st and second down which is among the highest in the league . So I’ve adopted a nickname for our offense . Chunk or punt .

[RiverDog]

I’ve had way too much time on my hands this winter obviously driving you guys nuts . But I’ve never watched more film . Even in 49 we had a 7.5 minute deficit in TOP despite almost 30 more yards in offense . We know it was a yard from victory . Is Russ part of top? We went 3 and out most of the first half before the final minutes and wound up losing first downs 25 to 20. It gassed our defense keeping it from being a first half blowout and in the end they had no legs .

Russ has one of the best deep balls ever . But for whatever reason 3rd down is his worst down by far and it’s not close to his performance on 1st and second down which is among the highest in the league . So I’ve adopted a nickname for our offense . Chunk or punt .

Even when we had Beast, one of the most difficult RB's to bring down in the current era, we were not a good short yardage offense. I can remember us losing a very close game to the Rams back in our LOB days when Beast got stuffed on 4th down. Anyone that says we should have handed off on that fateful play in 49 hasn't followed the Hawks.

So yea, Russell deserves some of the blame, perhaps even most of it, for our dismal offensive performance in those categories. But a lot of those 3 and out's and 3rd-4th down conversion percentages, then and now, has nothing to do with our quarterback.

[NorthHawk]

Because of our ineptitude, I think Russell believes he has to make the big play and the opposing Defenses know it.
That gives them a decided advantage on 3rd downs. With a proper Offense we wouldn't be in that position on a
regular basis and maybe go on 7 or 8 minute drives and score a TD.

I've been thinking about what our FO (mostly Pete) might do this year.
Here's the current situation from Pete's viewpoint.
He's only going to coach a couple of more years.
He thinks we are close to being a championship contender and only need another key piece or two.

Given the above, what will they do?
Possibly trade future draft picks for established players.
Sign key players from last year to big contracts.
Maybe dip into the FA well early - although that would be totally out of character.

It will be an all or nothing strategy for Pete. If it doesn't work and we end up like last year or only get into the playoffs to lose the first game, he will walk leaving
the team with heavy contracts and few draft picks.

So look for us to be real heavy salary cap wise at Safety, re-sign Penny to a bigger contract he deserves, and have no stud RB to fill in when both he and Carson are on IR.

[RiverDog]

So look for us to be real heavy salary cap wise at Safety, re-sign Penny to a bigger contract he deserves, and have no stud RB to fill in when both he and Carson are on IR.

I have a hard time believing that he'd keep both Carson and Penny. If he did, we'd be spending more money on that position than any other team in the league. IMO it's either one or the other but not both.

[Hawktawk]

Even when we had Beast, one of the most difficult RB's to bring down in the current era, we were not a good short yardage offense. I can remember us losing a very close game to the Rams back in our LOB days when Beast got stuffed on 4th down. Anyone that says we should have handed off on that fateful play in 49 hasn't followed the Hawks.

So yea, Russell deserves some of the blame, perhaps even most of it, for our dismal offensive performance in those categories. But a lot of those 3 and out's and 3rd-4th down conversion percentages, then and now, has nothing to do with our quarterback.

In SB 49 Beast was stopped on 3rd and 1 and 3rd and 2 by NES heavy package .On one occasion I believe it led to Carroll electing for a field goal inside the 10 on 4 th and short . So yeah, lots of analysts see the case for a pass on second down at the 1. It’s advantage passer with a stacked box . Carroll was yelling “ they went heavy” in the final seconds before the play was likely called. But as the dead bloated horse said , not that call with that personnel on both sides of the ball.

Not at least faking to Lynch or putting Russ on the move was like Reggie Bush on the sideline on 4th and 2. It’s losing a gunfight with bullets in your chamber . Ridiculous . Bevfool should have been gone . But you are correct sir nothing wrong with a pass play .

One other thought though . Whatever beast did earlier in the game I have a hard time believing they would have been able to deny than man a yard there . We will never know

[NorthHawk]

I have a hard time believing that he'd keep both Carson and Penny. If he did, we'd be spending more money on that position than any other team in the league. IMO it's either one or the other but not both

It makes sense if you look at it from the PoV of only needing one or two pieces to make it to the SB no matter
how far off you or me might think. Remember it’s Pete thinking in only the short term, not five years down
the road, and he has said he wants to keep the team together (he’s also said he was going to fix the pass rush
for 3 years so we have to take it with a grain of salt).

[RiverDog]

Even when we had Beast, one of the most difficult RB's to bring down in the current era, we were not a good short yardage offense. I can remember us losing a very close game to the Rams back in our LOB days when Beast got stuffed on 4th down. Anyone that says we should have handed off on that fateful play in 49 hasn't followed the Hawks.

So yea, Russell deserves some of the blame, perhaps even most of it, for our dismal offensive performance in those categories. But a lot of those 3 and out's and 3rd-4th down conversion percentages, then and now, has nothing to do with our quarterback.

In SB 49 Beast was stopped on 3rd and 1 and 3rd and 2 by NES heavy package .On one occasion I believe it led to Carroll electing for a field goal inside the 10 on 4 th and short . So yeah, lots of analysts see the case for a pass on second down at the 1. It’s advantage passer with a stacked box . Carroll was yelling “ they went heavy” in the final seconds before the play was likely called. But as the dead bloated horse said , not that call with that personnel on both sides of the ball.

Not at least faking to Lynch or putting Russ on the move was like Reggie Bush on the sideline on 4th and 2. It’s losing a gunfight with bullets in your chamber . Ridiculous . Bevfool should have been gone . But you are correct sir nothing wrong with a pass play .

One other thought though . Whatever beast did earlier in the game I have a hard time believing they would have been able to deny than man a yard there . We will never know

My point was that in the Pete Carroll era, we've never been a great short yardage offense. Russell isn't a big, strong quarterback like a Cam Newton or Josh Allen, so quarterback sneaks aren't as good of an option as they are for other teams which helps opposing defenses in their preparation. In some respects, I'm defending Russell.

The problem with running Beast on 2nd down is that had he not gotten in, we would have had to burn our last timeout, thus limiting us to 3 attempts. Had the pass to Lockette been incomplete, we may have tried to punch it in with Beast, then if he didn't get in, call our last timeout on 4th down. It's a good strategy, except, as you noted, the specific play call/personnel grouping.

[Hawktawk]

My point was that in the Pete Carroll era, we've never been a great short yardage offense. Russell isn't a big, strong quarterback like a Cam Newton or Josh Allen, so quarterback sneaks aren't as good of an option as they are for other teams which helps opposing defenses in their preparation. In some respects, I'm defending Russell.

The problem with running Beast on 2nd down is that had he not gotten in, we would have had to burn our last timeout, thus limiting us to 3 attempts. Had the pass to Lockette been incomplete, we may have tried to punch it in with Beast, then if he didn't get in, call our last timeout on 4th down. It's a good strategy, except, as you noted, the specific play call/personnel grouping.

Well you could run, I think he'd have got in. If not your at maybe 15 or 16 seconds and you call the timeout. 3rd down you know you have to pass. If that isn't there throw it away and on 4th you can do whatever you want. And once again why did we have 1 timeout at the end of the game? That's right.....We always F up our timeouts
My issues with Russ on 3rd down are accuracy and decision making especially the last couple of years. And we dont run well in 3rd and short or 4th and short. As you say it just seems we are always behind the sticks on 3rd down.

[NorthHawk]

My issues with Russ on 3rd down are accuracy and decision making especially the last couple of years. And we dont run well in 3rd and short or 4th and short. As you say it just seems we are always behind the sticks on 3rd down.

Maybe it's positive memory bias, but I don't remember Wilson having to force the throws on 3rd downs like he's had to the last 4 or 5 years.
We didn't seem to have as many 3rd and longs like we have of late.

[Hawktawk]

Whatever the reason we are inconsistent and as I saw rewatching that Super Bowl 49 we couldn’t move the damn ball the entire first half until the mad ending . Punt after punt . That was 2014. Teams that move chains dink and dunk , take what’s there . Boring but effective . We’ve proved we can score many times . It’s just the timing . You can’t hang your D out to dry then have an explosive score and they are right back on the field.

[RiverDog]

My issues with Russ on 3rd down are accuracy and decision making especially the last couple of years. And we dont run well in 3rd and short or 4th and short. As you say it just seems we are always behind the sticks on 3rd down.

Maybe it's positive memory bias, but I don't remember Wilson having to force the throws on 3rd downs like he's had to the last 4 or 5 years. We didn't seem to have as many 3rd and longs like we have of late.

That's an interesting proposition, and it would be interesting if someone did some research and found out what our average yards to gain on third down was this season vs. past years.

One of the factors that determines "playing from behind the sticks" is penalties, and this season, we were actually pretty good at not getting flagged a lot, ranking 23rd in total penalties...understanding that they aren't broken down by offense and defense. During our LOB years, it seemed like we were always one of the most penalized teams, on offense as well as defense.

https://www.nflpenalties.com/index.php? ... reg_season

In any event, my guess would be that we don't have any longer yardage to gain on 3rd downs this season than we have in the past.

[NorthHawk]

Our Defense was on the field more than most teams and our Offense on the field less than most teams if I recall it correctly.
That formula never works unless you have a miracle worker at QB who can pull wins out of a hat.

[Hawktawk]

At one point maybe week 12 Russ was converting 39% of his passes on 3rd down for an average of 2.1 yards per throw . In the Chicago game alone he missed WIDE open guys 3 times on 3rd down and missed Lock by 10 feet on 4 th down to end our chances . Yet his QBR for the game was 110 with no picks and 2 TDs . Penney was chunking it too . Damn lies and statistics . I’ve learned a qb can have a great stat line and still play terrible in key moments and lose. We have a lot of problems having consistent offense . But it seems we always have , even in the championship year . And PC and RW are the only people left . PC is on his 4th offensive coordinator . At some point PC and RW gotta look in the mirror .

[RiverDog]

At one point maybe week 12 Russ was converting 39% of his passes on 3rd down for an average of 2.1 yards per throw . In the Chicago game alone he missed WIDE open guys 3 times on 3rd down and missed Lock by 10 feet on 4 th down to end our chances . Yet his QBR for the game was 110 with no picks and 2 TDs . Penney was chunking it too . Damn lies and statistics . I’ve learned a qb can have a great stat line and still play terrible in key moments and lose. We have a lot of problems having consistent offense . But it seems we always have , even in the championship year . And PC and RW are the only people left . PC is on his 4th offensive coordinator . At some point PC and RW gotta look in the mirror .

That's a good argument for ESPN's QBR, which takes into account the quarterback's effect on the game. Russell's QBR for the Chicago game was 30.1

There are liars, damn liars, and then there are statisticians.

[Hawktawk]

Yes I agree about total QBR. It’s a better lens. . If I recall both Geno and Russ had a128 this year. Geno was the game you attended vs the Jags . Russ was the dreadful collapse vs the Titans . His dreadful play in the 4th quarter and OT along with the gassed defense folding was the reason . But same rating . To be fair Geno compiled a 102 rating with 5 TDs and 1 pick 70% completion and went 1-2 due in part to getting sacked in key moments .

Maybe that’s why Kirk Cousins always has nice stats and gets his coach fired .